Everything you need for tonight’s soiree with the Ohio boys.
As the Blue Jackets pick through the half-drank bottles and empty plates of the party and simultaneously the ruins of the team of the last two years, the only one to ever bring a playoff series win to Ohio, they must figure out where they’re going and how they’re going to get there. Even with the departures of Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, and their deadline acquisitions, there does seem to be a foundation with which to start again.
There’s a solid top pairing, and that might even be underselling Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. Ryan Murray finally overcame the obstacle of his body being made of Tonka toys to emerge as a solid second-pairing option. Vlad Gavrikov has turned some heads in the opening of this season.
Goalie is obviously a problem, and forward isn’t far behind. While Cam Atkinson poured in 41 goals last year and has consistently provided around 30, he just turned 30-years-old and for a player who relies on speed, one has to wonder how much longer he can contribute top line numbers. Then again, he could be the much more chipmunk-faced Patrick Marleau. It’s clear Nick Foligno and Brandon Dubinsky are past it. Boone Jenner is somehow only 26 still but has proved to not be much more than a middle line pivot.
So a lot of where the Jackets are going to go, and how they’ll get there, is riding on Pierre-Luc Dubois. See if this sounds familiar, a big center with nifty hands taken third overall? That was Dubois back in 2016, though he came out of the runway-to-the-net that is the QMJHL instead of the we’re-still-cowboys WHL that Kirby Dach might emerge from this year. Dubois has had the bonus of centering Panarin and Atkinson his first two years, which resulted in a more than respectable 64 points at just 20-years-old last season.
But Panarin is gone now, so whatever aid or safety net he was providing Dubois went with him. Is he up to the challenge? On the scant evidence we have, he should be. Dubois’s attempts-share fell off a cliff away from Panarin in his first two seasons, from 56% with to 48% without. Luckily for the Jackets, Dubois’s xGF% didn’t suffer near the same drop, though a drop nonetheless, which means though they might not be in the right end as much without Pantera they’re still getting the better chances.
He still has Atkinson of course, and though it’s only six games the results are good so far. They’re in the positive in both attempts and expected goals, with Gustav Nyquist standing in for Panarin, and who’s made a career of being just north of representative. Long season to go, of course.
And it’s a big one for Dubois, because it’s after this one that his entry-level deal expires. The Jackets are well set-up to give him a big contract, as they have $18M in space as of now with only Dubois being the must-have among all their free agents. Yes, they’re going to have to find a goalie somewhere, but they’re just as likely (and probably better off) trying to find a young one of those that they don’t have to overpay to pretend to care about OSU football and emphasize the pronunciation of “the.”
Still, the Jackets might want to take a breath before they decide whether or not to hand the boat to Dubois. 64 points at 20 is a hell of a thing, but they’ll need to see this year that he can be a 80-90 point guy. GM Jarmo Kekkalainen didn’t think Ryan Johansen was that back in the day, and he got Seth Jones out of it. It’s that type of shrewdness that might be the way to land himself a goalie, though it doesn’t have to be Dubois to get him that.
Teams find it hard to get anywhere without a true #1 center. Dubois has this year and maybe a couple more to prove that he is that.
Brandon Dubinksy – Perhaps the leading example of a belcher/grunter/scowler that is held up as leadership and grit for a team when his actual usefulness disappeared somewhere during Obama’s second term. Certainly doesn’t hurt that he has a last name that’s a modern iteration of “Grabowksi,” which the Ditka-philes that make up a majority of NHL front offices cover themselves in vaseline for. Dubes has spent the last two seasons getting his team backed into its own zone while he points and yells at clouds. He’s currently pulling his patented move of being hurt.
Nick Foligno – See above, but with the captain’s “C.” Foligno also has the added bonus of being a former player’s kid, which in the NHL boots your overall rating at least 25%. He’s only ever scored more than 20 goals twice in his far too long career, and for that he’ll take him $5.5M this year and next before the Jackets extend him so he can be the Ohio version of Mikko Koivu.
John Tortorella – This guy won a Cup, folks. While we’ll always stan for a guy who loves and rescues dogs as much as Torts does, you can bet one of the reasons both Bobrovsky and Panarin wanted to beat it out of town as quickly as possible was to get away from this guy. But this is the NHL, where a coach like this can pants an actual forward-thinking coach like Jon Cooper (not that Cooper ever needs much of an excuse to toss his pants aside). Clock must be ticking on this guy as the Jackets head into another rebuild after the monumental accomplishment of winning one playoff series.
vs 
Game Time: 7:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, ESPN+, WGN-AM 720
Bring Back Craig Krenzel: The Cannon
Tonight on West Madison the 7 game homestand rounds the turn and kicks into the final stretch, with four games in the next seven days starting with the visiting Blue Jackets, who have won their last two games, and currently sit at 3-3-0.
Notes: Merzlikins is as close as we’ll ever get to having a player named “Fu-Schnickens” in this league or any other. Anyway, from the looks of it he’ll make his second career start and the first one was a disaster, as the Penguins pumped seven by him. Though giving up 40 shots for your rookie goaltender making his first start on the continent is probably not the smartest idea…the Jackets have the same PK problems as the Hawks, currently only killing off 70% of their penalties…Alex Texier is the analytic darling here, rocking plus-60% metrics when on the ice…
Notes: Lehner gets the start tonight, and with the schedule ramping up for the rest of the month you can probably expect him and Crawford to straight split starts for while…no changes otherwise, as there shouldn’t be…if the Kampf line did that to McDavid, they should simply run over Dubois and Atkinson. But Atkinson has a habit of scoring against the Hawks, and the Jackets are much deeper than the Oilers…Still, rookie goalie that just gave up seven, KILL….
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Saints (5-1) at Bears (3-2)
TV: FOX 32, 3:25 PM (GAME OF THE WEEK™)
Radio: WBBM 780 AM/105.9 FM
Aaaaaaand we’re back. The Bears come out of the bye and welcome the Teddy Bridgewater-led Saints into Soldier Field with a lot to prove.
The Saints arrive winners of four straight, games that can best be described as “winning ugly” – but wins nonetheless. New Orleans holds a slim lead in the NFC South on the back of this steak, but they’re no juggernaut. They rank middle of the pack in DVOA on offense and defense and really don’t do anything great, but they’ve done enough in most of their six games to eek out victories. Bridgewater is getting a lot of love for his play since Drew Brees went down, but it’s not exactly warranted. 41.2 QBR, 217 yards/game but seven TDs against two picks and only 10 sacks in a little under five full games. He’s protected the ball and moved the offense juuuuuust enough to get the job done, winning all four of his starts by one score.
Bridgewater looks like he’ll be without some of his better supporting cast on Sunday as Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook have both missed practice all week. The two rank second and third in targets, but team leader Michael Thomas will still suit up for what will be a tough matchup against Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller. The Saints boast one of the most under-appreciated weapons in the league’s best punter Thomas Morstead, recent special teamer of the month of September and the honor for last week after having five punts downed inside the 15-yard line. The Saints keep winning the battle of field position, and without some key offensive weapons that will be important on Sunday.
The Bears should be ready for all this, having two full weeks to prepare and get themselves in order after the semi-shock loss in London to the Raiders. And it’s really time for Matt Nagy to show everyone what he’s got. The 2018 coach of the year spent all off-season saying this offense was all set to hit a new gear, ready to score at will and produce touchdowns while running a special defense out every week – a championship contender in every sense. The results thus far leave a lot to be desired, injuries or not. Mitchell Trubisky is back, albeit with a restrictive sling on his non-throwing shoulder, and he has as much if not more to prove than his play-caller.
Will we see the inventive offense that was promised? Don’t expect fireworks out the gate, though it’s fair to think that the offensive line should be improved after the merciful IR-ing of Kyle Long. In comes Rashaad Coward and Alex Bars to save the day, or at least save the running game some space at the line of scrimmage and, hell, maybe even getting to the second level now and then. There have been a great many plays that appeared dead before the ball made it to a running back or the QB had finished his drop back. The Bears had to know as soon as the game ended in London that the switch from Long would be made and it’s fair to expect some immediate results against an up and down Saints defensive front. The key will be executing on first and third down, and Nagy spoke to the former earlier this week. Making first down plays count, run or pass, to keep themselves out of third and long will dictate success. It’s really that simple.
Chicago’s defense and Chuck Pagano will be ecstatic to see Kamara sidelined, but Latavius Murray (remember him?) has been solid in his own right playing backup, averaging 4.3 yards/carry in his limited role. There’s plenty to be concerned about after letting Josh Jacobs run wild seemingly all over England, but containing the run game and making Bridgewater try to beat them through the air is likely to lead to success. The loss of Akiem Hicks definitely hurts, but this is where Pace can show his drafting/signings are worth it with the depth he’s created.
This is the Show Me game for Chicago and Nagy. Show me you’re that Coach of the Year, and not a Juron-esque fluke. Show me you can game plan for your young, struggling QB to be successful. Show me you can clean up the lapses on defense and stop an NFC leader on your home turf.
SHOW US WHAT YOU GOT!
Prediction: Bears 19, Saints 10
Bears Offense vs. Saints Defense
Saints Offense vs. Bears Defense
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WITNESS ME BLOODBAG!
2019 Stats
155 games, 610 plate appearances
.250/.339/.531
38 HR 82 RBI
11.5 BB% 25.6 K%
120 wRC+ .357 wOBA .871 OPS
-7.1 Defensive Runs Saved 2.4 WAR
Tell Me A Story: There probably isn’t a better lesson in development not being linear than Kyle Schwarber. It was a given after his Doomsday 2nd half in 2015 that Schwarber would be taking aim and eventually bringing down the scoreboard in right field. But it didn’t work that way, as The War Bear got hurt, then spent ’17 and ’18 going through the growing pains he was supposed to go through in 2016. There was the cursed leadoff spot (which I will still contend he was good at and could be again if the Cubs really needed him to be). It got to the point where some fans and media had given up on him. And hell, it even took until the second half of this season for people to be convinced that Schwarber was going to be anything like we thought he would.
Overall, Schwarber’s season is really good. If you were to focus on just the second half, where he slashed .280/.366/.631 for a wRC+ of an astronomic 151 (for comparison, a season-long 151 would have ranked 7th in all of baseball right behind Anthony Rendon), then it’s really ya-ha time. The question for Schwarber and the Cubs and all of us is whether or not Schwarber is that guy from just the second half. Of course, most teams would settle for the whole of ’19 from their left fielder. Perspective is king, people.
There isn’t too much to suggest it simply can’t be. His BABIP in the second half was .287, which is high for Schwarbs simply due to the shifts he sees but hardly out of line by league-average standards. His hard-contact rate was above 40% in both halves of the season, which would suggest he was a touch unlucky in the first more than lucky in the second (though somewhat boosted by the 54% hard-contact rate he had in September). And nothing really changed about his approach, as the direction of his hits and contact remained pretty steady from first half to second half. And on a team that had trouble hitting the ball hard, Schwarber ranked 9th in all of MLB in average exit velocity. You wouldn’t get that long of odds on him repeating the second half for a full season, let’s say.
If there’s a problem area for Schwarber, it had been breaking balls. And overall, his numbers on sliders and curves this year aren’t impressive. But at the end of the year, in September, he blistered them for a .308 average and a .373 wOBA. Now maybe that’s just a one month spike, or maybe it’s an adjustment to how pitchers adjusted after getting weary of seeing their fastballs and sinkers turned into confetti somewhere over the right field wall. We’ll need more than a month to know, but it’s at least an encouraging start.
Could it actually get better? Maybe? The thing is Kyle’s walk-rate was the lowest of his career, at a still more than decent 11.8%. It was over 15% the year before, and over 13% in his rookie year. There are more walks in there. Some of that is Kyle being a little more willing to go get things a little outside because he can still do things with those pitches, But if he’d had ’18’s walk-rate this year he would have had 23 more walks, which would have boosted his OBP from .339 to .375. There is more in there in that sense. That would see his OPS crack .900 for the year, which is where we all picture The War Bear to be.
The concern with Schwarber, as it is with pretty much everyone now, is the lack of contact. Both his in-zone and overall contact rates were below league-average, and we know the Cubs would like to boost this where they can. I would think Schwarber’s overall production, especially in the second half, would outweigh that, but what do I know? And on breaking pitches, Schwarbs still has some swing-and-miss problems. That’s going to have to be the next step.
The other knock on Schwarber was his historic and mystifying incompetence in high-leverage situations last year. Well that certainly improved this year from -62 (my brain bleeds just seeing that number) to 92 in wRC+. Of course, even in his great second half, that number was just 81 in those spots. Perhaps that’s because pitchers, at least the ones able to execute a plan, know where to go with Schwarbs when they have to get him out. This is clearly the thing he’s going to have to correct come next year.
The funny thing with Schwarber is that even with his improved offensive numbers, he had a lesser WAR than ’18. That’s because his defense didn’t grade out as highly. And that’s because he didn’t really get the chance to throw out runners this year, as the book is out on his arm. Much like Willson Contreras, he contributed to his own sliding metrics on defense because of how good he was at one thing that he negated more chances to do that one thing. We know he’s not a great left fielder. Probably not even a good one. We also know a team doesn’t need to be great in left.
Contract: 2nd of three arbitration years, projected at $8M.
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There are whispers about trading Schwarber to the AL every goddamn year. I’m sure this won’t be different. And it’s not that he’s untouchable. For a top of the rotation starter, you’d have to think long and hard about it. But that’s about it, at least to me. We got a half season of the hitter he can be, and was in 2015. So this isn’t like it came from nowhere. He’s an adjustment or two from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. And even with the arbitration more thandoubling his salary, he’s cheap and young. True, for the first time since 2015, he’ll actually have some real value. But other teams would be wary of a backslide. And if you move Schwarber you have to replace that production in left. There really isn’t an in-house candidate, other than Ian Happ who is a lot farther from being that hitter than Schwarber is. To do it from the outside would be expensive, even if it’s everyone’s darling Castellanos. And if the budget is selfishly and callously limited again, then what room there is has to find pitching first.
As with everything, it depends on return. But the chance the Cubs regret moving Schwarber along rather than enjoy what they got back seems a lot bigger than the reverse.
For the 5th time in six weeks, the Bears will face an opposing quarterback whose name doesn’t exactly bring anxiety-ridden nights to DC Chuck Pagano. But don’t sleep my friends; Saints backup QB Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater is more than capable. Yes, that Teddy Bridgewater, he of the knee injury which had teammates throwing up on their cleats, will most likely be the one leading the “Who Dats” into Soldier(s) Field on Sunday afternoon. In case you forgot, or have been paying too much attention to NFL officiating and LeBron James’ foreign policy, Drew Brees–a top-5 NFL QB of all time–injured this thumb five weeks ago. Brees underwent surgery, and does not expect to play this week, which brings us back to Bridgewater.
In relief of Brees, Bridgewater has gone 4-0; completing almost 70% of his passes for 7 TDs, 2 INTs, and a QB Rating of just under 100. What makes his numbers even more impressive is that his October splits are a completion percentage of 71.4%, 5 TDs, 1 INT, and a QBR of 112.4. What these numbers clearly say is that as Bridgewater is getting more comfortable as a starter, he continues to improve. It also doesn’t hurt that he is playing in one of the best systems in the history of the game.
“Hot route. Hot route. I don’t…what is hot route? Would you just go stand on the other side please?”
-John Beckwith & Jeremy Grey, Wedding Crashers
As Bridgewater has become more comfortable, he has gotten away from quick hitters and hot routes and is taking more chances downfield, a staple of a Sean Peyton’s offense. Since replacing Brees mid-game in Week 2, here’s a quick look at TD Teddy’s throws under and over 10 yards:
Week 0-10 Yards 10+ Yards
2 24 6
3 22 5
4 29 7
5 23 11
The Saints have the best offensive line in football, so if, and of course it’s a big if, the Saints can protect Bridgewater long enough, look for Peyton to attack longer targets more often. The Bears drop ends and linebackers are so athletic and do such a great job of zone coverage, teams are often better off attacking a Bears secondary that have been only average this season.
Michael Thomas Is A Great Receiver, And Also Could Be Your Backup Goalie
Between Mike Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn Jr., and Jared Cook, the Saints continue to produce other-worldly pass catching talent. Thomas is getting the lion’s share of the targets, averaging almost nine catches per game for 105 yards and 3 TDs. He currently leads the league in receptions and is second in yards. In his 11-reception, 182-yard, 2-TD performance in Week 5, Thomas lined up everywhere on the field and ran every route in the playbook. His week 5 route chart looks like 1st grader drawing with his toes:
So, what does this mean? Well, it means that in an effort to mix up defensive coverages, Thomas will line-up everywhere and run anywhere – and he’ll do it while getting over 11 targets per game.
When Thomas isn’t lighting you up, Alvin Kamara is a legit threat in the passing game. Kamara is average almost six catches per game for 8.4 yards per catch and 46 receiving yards per game. What makes Kamara so special is his ability to create big plays with his run after catch capabilities, which were very much on display week 3:
How can the Bears slow Kamara down? Well, they may have caught a break this week as Kamara is dealing with lower leg injury and will be limited in practice leading up to Sunday.
Teddy Ginn Jr. and tight end Jared Cook also provide some respectable options in the passing game as both average over 10 yards per catch. Both of these guys will obviously become more involved in the offense if Kamara is limited or cannot go at all.
So, what will the Saints and Bridgewater be able do against the Bears on Sunday?
The answer to this question relies solely on the heath of Alvin Kamara. If Kamara can play, the Bears are in trouble. Mike Thomas is going to have a big day regardless of Kamara’s health, but the difference between your 2nd receiving option being Kamara and being Ginn Jr or Cook is seismic. Bridgewater and the Saints are going to score, not as much as a Drew Brees led offense, but enough to win…but only if Alvin Kamara is healthy and can be Alvin Kamara.
Saints 24 – Bears 16
