Baseball

Royals Spotlight: Faded Colossus

By Sam Fels 1337 0

I have a confession. When the Cubs were rolling out the jewels of their system in 2014 and 2015 (and some before), it was Jorge Soler I was most excited about. In his first week he hit a homer in St. Louis off professional goofus Pat Neshek that landed somewhere around the Quad Cities. He had stupid power, he had plate discipline, he had a howitzer of a throwing arm. He could even run a little. He had swag. I didn’t necessarily think he would be the best of the bunch. I just knew he would be my favorite.

He only got one season. And like most rookie years, 2015 was a wonky one. The “Soler zone” became a popular term among Cubs fans, as his high discipline led to a lot of strikeouts looking, a good portion of them on pitches out of the zone. And of course he got hurt in the middle of it, as is his wont. He struck out a bit too often, and he didn’t quite hit for enough power to make it ok.

It all turned on in the last two months though. He started walking again after his return from injury. And while August didn’t see the power return, his .372 OBP was enough. Then September hit, and Soler was a fireworks show. Yeah, he struck out nearly 40% of the time. But he also slugged .609.

And then came those playoffs. Soler was just about the only one not getting domed by the Mets pitching staff. He hit .473 that October, including clocking the Cardinals for a couple big homers. It looked like it was the beginning. The Cubs were going to have their own Yasiel Puig but with plate discipline.

But the Cubs didn’t trust his health, or more to the point they didn’t trust his work ethic to stay healthy. They signed Jason Heyward (Soler’s defense just never really came around), and then Dexter Fowler returned to shove Heyward over into his right field spot. Schwarber’s injury that year opened up left for him, but he didn’t really grab it and when Baez pushed Zobrist to the outfield, that was about it.

Soler hasn’t taken off in KC either. It looked like last year he would. Through the season’s first third last year he posted a .354 wOBA and a 123 wRC+. But as always, his hamstrings gave out and he sat the rest of the season.

Soler is getting another chances this year, but it hasn’t gone well. The walks have disappeared by the strikeouts haven’t. He’s still hitting for power, with a .504 slugging and a .265 ISO. Soler seems determined to not get caught looking ever again, swinging at 10% more pitches in the zone than he ever has, as well as swinging at more pitches out of the zone. He’s not going to get undone by the “Soler zone,” it would seem.

Soler is still highly susceptible to anything offspeed or that bends, as hitters like him tend to be. If Soler isn’t walking he becomes just a little too one dimensional. Soler has been able to get more balls in the air, which is what you want from him. If he can find the walk-bug again, he still has potential to be a weapon.

It’s not over yet. Soler is 27, and he’s got one more year on the contract the Cubs signed him to out of Cuba. You’d have to figure there’s going to be one more push to cash in on a free agent contract. That is if he can be bothered to stay on the field, which has been whispered about him for a while now. Though that only seems to happen with Latin players. Strange, isn’t it?

We’ll always have that homer in St. Louis, and the ones in Game 2 and 3 against the Cardinals in 2015. Feels like it could have been more. Probably should have been.

Everything Else

Middle Of The Road Is The Best Place To Get Run Over

By Sam Fels 1810 0

So, as the season is about to wrap up (in a most unpleasant fashion no matter how it goes) and we can really get our teeth into the offseason, Scott Powers is here to give you, the people, some nuggets. They’re not…great nuggets.

The headline is that the Hawks have called the Jackets about Ryan Murray. Murray is an RFA this summer, and he can go completely unrestricted next summer if he were to sign a one-year deal. Which is probably what he wants to do, but that’ll be a hard sell to any team.

Murray had a pretty decent season last year, one for which he was finally able to stay in one piece for. At least for him. 56 games is an avalanche of efforts for him, but yeah, he’s got health issues. He’s been around six seasons now, if you can believe it, and has only gone the route once. And that 82 game season is the only one he’s managed more than 66. That’s generally the headline with Murray, something will fall off of him during the year.

Murray racked up 28 assists and 29 points, both career-highs. His metrics from this past season look pretty good, as he was +0.72 Corsi relative and +3.6 xGF% relative. The caveat is he spent a good portion of the season with Seth Jones. There is no Seth Jones here. However, Murray’s numbers don’t crater away from Jones, and Jones and Nutivaara’s (his other main partner) do go down without Murray. It’s perfectly in bounds to say that Murray is a fine player.

The thing is though, he helps your middle when the Hawks don’t have a top. They probably think they do, but they don’t. If you’re going to give up any kind of assets for a d-man who is made of balsa wood, why not just commit money to the one with red bursting crotch dots who is a top pairing player? There are more than a few guys who can do what Murray does that don’t involve giving up picks or prospects and then paying them. Fuck, Henri Jokiharju is supposed to do what Ryan Murray does and he’s already here and cheap. And if he can’t after a training-wheels season, then you better get his ass up outta here while other teams are still bewitched by his promise/have blind scouts. Connor Murphy basically already does what Murray does, and even better he’s now got the same health issues.

I understand why the Hawks might think they need a player like Murray. He’s stable in his own end. He’s big, but not immobile. And that certainly can’t hurt. He’s an upgrade on whatever they have now, but that’s hardly saying anything. But he’s not a puck-mover. He doesn’t pick up the Hawks’ pace, and the Hawks need that. He doesn’t get them out of the zone. They may think that Boqvist is going to do that one day but they also seem pretty damn determined to make sure that isn’t this day.

But you don’t get where you want to go by shopping in the middle. You get high end and then fill in below. The Hawks don’t have high end. They don’t have it anywhere, at least not proven. It’s not Keith anymore. It’s not Jokiharju, at least not proven. It’s not Boqvist, at least not proven. Either go big or go little but finding the middle is how you end up in the middle.

There isn’t a suggestion that this deal is close. And there isn’t a suggestion why the Jackets would even consider this unless Murray has made it clear he wants out (which is the trend around there). Losing their best forward makes their strength on the blue line all the more paramount, so unless they’re turning Murray into forward help I can’t see it. And the only forward help the Hawks have to move is Saad, and the Jackets have seen that movie and weren’t all that enamored then.

There’s a long way to go on this. It’s a defensible move, but it isn’t an inspirational one. My fear is that the Hawks don’t think they need an inspirational one, when it is clear that they do.

-Powers also adds to the rumble that the Hawks are going to take Alex Turcotte, which we probably should have all just accepted once you found out he was from here. Look, if the Hawks think he’s a genuine #1 center in waiting, and more of a sure thing to be that than Byram is to be a #1, then you can do that. And then you wait the year until he’s here, because while I wouldn’t bet on Jonathan Toews repeating that season, he’s still going to be productive. You don’t need the help at center the way you do at defense now.

I think I’d rather Byram, and we’ll dive into this during draft week. While the Hawks’ drafting generally gets good marks, remember it’s been six years since their 1st round pick made a serious impact (our dear sweet boy Teuvo). No, I’m not counting Ryan Hartman fuck you. Boqvist appears to be a major project. Jokiharju is an anything. The one before that was three years previous and it was Schmaltz and he ain’t here no more. You can’t miss on a #3 pick.

If you’re suspicious because of how the Hawks lust after local players, I’m not going to stop you. Turcotte’s scouting report is glowing as well. So are Byram’s though, and he could be here next season. He also creates flexibility via trades of your other prospects. Turcotte does not.

Getting itchy.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cardinals vs. Cubs: Gotta Get Back The Get Back

By Sam Fels 1237 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cardinals 31-29   Cubs 34-27

GAMETIMES: Friday 1:20, Saturday and Sunday at 6:05

TV: NBCSN Friday, Fox Saturday, ESPN Sunday

HE DOESN’T LIKE YOU: Viva El Birdos

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Miles Mikolas vs. Cole Hamels

Jack Flaherty vs. Jon Lester

Adam Wainwright vs. Kyle Hendricks

PROBABLE CARDINALS LINEUP

Dexter Fowler – RF

Paul DeJong – SS

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B

Marcell Ozuna – LF

Jedd Gyorko – 3B

Harrison Bader – CF

Matt Wieters – C

Kolten Wong – 2B

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Kris Bryant – 3B

Carlos Gonzalez – LF

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – RF

Victor Caratini – C

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

 

The Cardinals had a sweep to avenge last weekend down in Mos Eisley, and now so do the Cubs. If they were to trade sweeps all season, this would probably turn into some holy war. There is obviously no better or worse feeling, depending on how that particular set goes for you. The last thing we need is to be this bipolar, but we’ll take a Cubs sweep this weekend. Let’s get greedy.

Since the Cubs last saw the Cards five days ago, they split two games with the Reds and had one rained out. Thanks to the scheduled off-day and then bonus one, the Cubs will see the same three pitchers they couldn’t do much with last weekend. So that’s a treat. Perhaps the frequency of appearances will help. Lester and Hendricks didn’t throw against the Cards last time, so that…helps? Basically we’re all gonna shit if the Cubs are held at arm’s length by Adam Goddamn Wainwright again, is what I’m saying. But if his defense keeps pulling rabbits out of their ass like they did last time…hopefully the line drives the Cubs did hit aren’t right at people this time.

The Cards are carrying a couple injuries into this one. Matt Carpenter left the game yesterday early and isn’t playing today, and it’s questionable whether he’ll play this weekend. Yadier Molina continues to be out and there’s no word on when he might be back. Which is actually fine for them, though you’ll never get anyone to say it, because Matt Wieters has been bette at the plate than Yadi. But he doesn’t provide the kind of leadership where you ignore what’s actually going on during a play to argue with an ump or ground out harmlessly to short a lot. I guess we just don’t understand baseball.

For the Cubs, they’ll trot out the goofy lineup today when you know it’s the time where Maddon thinks it’s time to give the team a chuckle. Greatest Leadoff Hitter In History Anthony Rizzo returns as Schwarber is given the day off. Somehow, Maddon is still convinced that Carlos Gonzalez isn’t dead, and he’s hitting third, giving the hands team in the outfield the full game. Maddon also hasn’t noticed that Heyward hasn’t hit in six weeks, so he’ll be in the five-spot. Good times all around here. At least Almora and Bote are playing I guess. Maybe this is just not the thing to worry about right now.

The Cards can get right into the thick of this with a series win, as they’re only 2.5 games behind the Cubs and Brewers. And their schedule is awfully light after this, with 11 games against the Marlins and Mets after this, whereas as the Cubs have to go to the funhouse of Coors Field and then into the tiger pit of Dodger Stadium. Then again, playing the Marlins didn’t do much for the Brewers this week. That’s baseball.

It’s been a good homestand so far. Be a good idea to finish it out strong.

Baseball

Cardinals Spotlight: Goldy Hasn’t Done Anything Yet, And You Know When He Does…

By Sam Fels 1279 0

When you’re the Cardinals, and you’ve spent the past three seasons staring at the lights when it’s all over, that creates a sense of urgency. After all, three playoff-less season, after a first-round dry heave to your biggest rival, is purely unacceptable in Mos Eisley. So the Cardinals went out and got the biggest bat there was, perennial MVP-candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Finally, Matt Carpenter would have some support, and if Fowler bounced back and Harrison Bader took a step and Marcell Ozuna got back to normal, the Cardinals should have a scary offense. All of those things have basically happened…except for Goldschmidt being the weapon of mass destruction he’s been. Best laid plans of mice and men and all that…

The Cards offense has been middle of the pack so far this season, except when it comes to on-base percentage as they do have a lot of guys who take walks. Carpenter got off to his usual slow start, though is rounding into form as he usually does when it gets warm (and then falls apart in September from carrying the team). But Goldschmidt hasn’t come along, and even though he’s having a fine season–115 wRC+, 345 wOBA–they’re way off his career norms (149, .390)

So what’s up? On the surface, Goldy’s walks are a touch down and his Ks are a touch up, but nothing that would suggest any long-term problems or anything more than a two-month spike. He’s whiffing at a touch more pitches, but not so much that you worry about bat-speed. If there’s one noticeable difference, it’s that he’s making way more contact on pitches outside of the zone (71.4% this year to 66.7% last) and far less in the zone (77.9 from 82.2). But that’s not really the problem, judging by his slugging zones this year vs. his career:

There’s a couple deadzones at the top there, but that might just be a quirk of the season still being relatively young. You wouldn’t want to go there too often, you wouldn’t think. And pitchers aren’t.

Where Goldschmidt has seen some changes to this year is he’s seeing an uptick in changes and curves. And he’s been atrocious on them. On curveballs he’s hitting .100 with a slugging of .100. On change-ups he’s hitting .125 with a slugging of….. .125. Guess there’s a pattern there. The averages are some 150 points below his career marks and the slugging isn’t even worth talking about. He’s had a bit of rough luck on those pitches, but he can’t make an argument of being undone when he’s barely hitting the ball much less hard on them.

So why so? Usually when a player has this much trouble with offspeed pitches, the suggestion would be that he’s cheating on fastballs and is getting caught ahead. Goldy’s numbers on fastballs are a touch worse than his career norms. He’s whiffing at a few more swings on fastballs (26% to 22%), a few less line-drives (27% to 29%) and perhaps just a touch more worrying is that he’s popping up more of them (10% to 7%).

Goldschmidt is 31, and will turn 32 in September. Lately there’s been a train of thought that it is at 32 or so when players start to struggle with the flood of velocity in the game today. It’s hard to get there with Goldschmidt yet, especially as he’s carrying a 50% hard-hit rate, by far the highest of his career. Still, Statcast doesn’t think he’s performing below where he should be, as his expected wOBA is .356 which isn’t far off from the actual .350 he’s putting up.

Again, two months. Again, this is Paul Goldschmidt. Still, if he remains as vulnerable to offspeed pitches throughout the season, and the slightly less squared up fastballs continue, there’s only one way this slope goes.

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 5 Recap – Just Kill Us

By Sam Fels 1732 0

Maybe it’s better this way. Maybe it’s the better way to accept your fate. Or maybe this is just setting up for what will become the ultimate Blues moment. There are your two roads. Resignation or the road to hope. I have no idea. At least the Final tossed up a decent game for once…except it got completely overshadowed by more NHL brilliance. Let’s run through it.

-Let’s get it out at the top. The non-call on Noel Acciari is a result of the NHL’s and hockey’s antiquated and downright stupid, “LET THE PLAYERS PLAY!!” attitude. That only gets exacerbated by the NHL bus-tossing their refs when they do make a call that is seen as harsh. NHL refs are already terrified or outright refusing to call penalties that are obvious late in games, and it’s been that way the entire time. And we know better. Then they see what happened to Vegas, and that only intensifies it. Even if those refs were wrong, the NHL can’t allow an avenue for teams and coaches to exploit, which they have. Protect your refs.

We can accept that in some ways. What can’t be accepted is the repeated hits to the head last night that the refs bent over backwards for to not call anything. You even had Eddie NoCheck (it’s what he was known as during his career) trying to justify one or two by talking about technique and changing levels of the other players’ heads, as if he would know the first thing about it. Whenever the NHL gets serious about getting rid of this, if it ever does though it may be forced one day, it’ll instruct its refs to err on the side of punishment and not leniency. Hockey doesn’t need hits to the head to be hockey. But in the playoffs, and these especially, the refs have been neutered. This is what you get. And I’m sure it’s what you’ll continue to get as the NHL remains more terrified of a Don Cherry rant about the softening of the game than anything else.

-Anyway, to the teams. The Bruins did more than enough last night to win, but were just the victim of the first Jordan Binnington game of the series, especially in the first period. That happens, it’s just a shit time for it for the Bs.

-The story of this series is going to be how Patrice Bergeron’s line has disappeared. Bergeron is probably hurt, which is good enough. What’s Marchand’s excuse? Oh right, that he’s pretty much always been a Bergeron passenger and when the driver of the bus isn’t there, he goes nowhere.

-The funny thing is that Zdeno Chara had his best game as far as possession goes in this one, which is something the Bruins probably have to win. The first Blues goal wasn’t even his fault, as much as I would have liked it to be to punch holes in this stupid Willis Reed narrative, but it was McAvoy who went chasing behind the net with Chara and it was his alley that ROR went running for. But then again, McAvoy sucks in his own end which we already knew.

-It’s still frustrating to watch the Bruins go through phases of play where they simply have to carry the puck through two or three Blues defenders at the line, instead of getting it deep where the Blues have proven they can’t consistently escape. There are times for both, but the Bruins haven’t been able to diagnose when those are outside of Game 1, really. I’m making Gunnarsson and Edmundson and Bortuzzo prove they can pass or skate their way out of trouble, because I know they can’t.

-I’m not being fair to the Blues, who have played at a pace for two straight games I didn’t think they could manage. It’s really hard to harass retreating d-men and then get back to make life hell at your own line, but they’ve done it.

-The Bruins could use a Tuukka game Sunday. They haven’t really gotten one yet.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Rockies: The Answers Aren’t Here And Not Here

By Sam Fels 1256 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Rockies 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 9, Rockies 8

Game 3 Box Score: Rockies 3, Cubs 1

It was a series somewhat overshadowed by the Cubs making a signing during Game 2, which is usually only reserved for trades. Such is the way of the game these days. Anyway, the Cubs got two of three, three of four on the homestand so far, which is a nice recovery from what had gone on the past two weeks. Win the series against Mos Eisley, and you’ll have a 5-2 homestand which is just what the doctor ordered. At least the offense is back…until it wasn’t. The rotation definitely is though.

-Tuesday night featured another Kyle Hendricks gem, and he was really accentuating the upper part of the zone. Have a look:

Hendricks’s new wrinkles this year is to go up the ladder and to throw more curves, 16 of which he chucked on Tuesday night, a season-high. When you have as free-swinging an outfit as the Rockies are, you get a pretty easy night at the office.

-You can tell Maddon is jumpy about his pen, as Hendricks was allowed to throw 111 pitches and then Quintana today went one batter into the eighth.

-You can’t blame Maddon after last night’s tour-de-stupid. Brad Brach is a nothing, and it’s time the Cubs realized that. So is Kyle Ryan. I keep stressing that Montgomery and Chatwood, who are stretched out, should be thrown multiple innings whenever possible to limit everyone else’s exposure. Perhaps the biggest disappointment with Maddon’s management, on the field that is, is his lack of imagination with his pen usage. He wants his closer, his 8th inning guy, and his 7th inning guy. He seems tempted to use Chatwood that way at times, but not consistently, and Montgomery as a one-inning guy just doesn’t make any sense.

-That’s enough of Daniel Descalso, thank you.

-The Cubs might have gotten a couple lightning strikes out of Carlos Gonzalez, but don’t fool yourself. He’s finished. He’s only had one season where he was anything but an average hitter away from Coors, and that was four seasons ago. Albert Almora seemed to have secured regular playing time, and then it vanished for this. Which just isn’t fair, unless you’re going to sit Heyward, and sitting Heyward for Gonzalez is the definition of running in place. The only benefit is the hands team the Cubs can put in the outfield late in games now.

-However, he was at the turning point of last night’s game, when German Marquez decided to pitch around CarGo and then hit Contreras, before Bote cleared the bases. I don’t know if it was from memory or a favor to an old friend, but it defied explanation. Even despite the Cubs’ pen’s best efforts, they couldn’t seal a game that had already been blown open.

-Next time, maybe just let Yu try and work himself out of his own trouble instead of protecting his psyche, because letting the pen come in and start various bonfires isn’t going to help it either.

-It does feel like the Cubs always huff paint when facing a pitcher making his major league debut, but I’m sure if I looked, or knew where to look, the numbers wouldn’t bare that out. It’s still annoying as fuck, though.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Another Reason This Final Sucks

By Sam Fels 1980 0

I mean, take your pick. The hockey hasn’t been terribly enjoyable, there’s yet to be a good game, both fanbases would do the world a favor by leaping into Sarlacc, no matter who wins we’re all going to be sick, and add to that the narratives or stories around these teams are so stupid and wrong. The feeling of relief when this is over will be akin to  the stiff shit that takes five minutes to get out. A metaphor more apt than we should take too much time to consider.

With Zdeno Chara unlikely to make the bell tonight (and I’m still convinced it doesn’t matter much other than numbers), you can be sure Blues fans are going to be pumping that their HEAVY style is the reason the Blues are where they are and very well may pull this off. It’s been what they’ve been pushing for…oh, 25 years now? 30? Their entire existence? I’m not sure, but the Blues have always had to define themselves by how much they make their stained-jersey wearing fans snort and belch and cheer itchy trigger-fingered cops. Never mind this team is actually built on its speed and newfound finish and creativity, because that doesn’t fit into how St. Louis has to portray itself and the hockey media is all too happy to go along with because it’s either too lazy or too drunk to do much else.

And to be fair, it’s the same for the Bruins, who got here thanks to sublime goaltending and having the best line in hockey, along with a very mobile defense that the Leafs, or Jackets, or Canes simply couldn’t catch enough or force into mistakes because they always find space.

So let’s review, because it’s going to come up during the broadcast the next two or three nights. Here is the list of “victims” for the Blues and their supposed torturous style:

Erik Karlsson – carried a groin injury since February that caused him to miss 26 games that got worse, wouldn’t you know, by playing every other day in the most intense form of the game for a month straight.

Tomas Hertl – Illegal hit to the head

Matt Grzelcyk – Illegal hit from behind

Zdeno Chara – puck to the face

So yeah, the Blues GRITHEARTSANDPAPERFAAAAART had exactly zero to do with any of this, unless we’re counting illegal and dirty hits as an actual tactic now. Which they very well may be in St. Louis. I suppose the real fear is with Tom Wilson getting a ring last year, teams are just going to sanction whatever nutters they have on their team to make a couple runs at someone per series, and they’ll deal with the consequences as long as the other team’s defenseman misses time. After all, you have more forwards than they have d-men. And before you shrug that off as an impossibility, remember this is hockey and anything can happen, and the dumber it is the more likely it is to.

Physicality is part of playoff hockey, no one denies this. Sorry, let me get that right, NO ONE DENIES THIS! But seeing as how everyone is trying to be physical and shrink time to make plays and cause turnovers and mistakes and get the puck back deep in the offensive zone with everyone out of position, it’s not really a “strategy.” The defining part is how you cash in when you get those turnovers, or how you set your team up to avoid them. The forecheck and physical play is a given. It’s like saying in football that having five offensive lineman who will definitely try to block people is a strategy (unless this is the Cutler-era Bears, who definitely didn’t have that nor try to do that).

The attrition of playoff hockey has always struck me awkwardly (then again, what doesn’t? I’m gawkier than the ace of spades!). I know the length and “Wreck Of The Hesperus” nature of it makes it a true test, and what a lot of people love. Which is fine. Still, if the playoffs are all that matter, and we’re using this to decide who the best teams are (which it doesn’t always but whatever not the point), it would be a truer test if these teams were closer to full-strength. Depth is certainly part of the hockey equation, no doubt. But I don’t know that having these things settled by third liners and eighth defensemen is the best showcase of the sport. And we have 82 games to test depth as well, including when top players simply go through slumps.

There is no answer of course other than shortening the season (I can’t stress my 76-game schedule when Seattle arrives enough, knowing it will never, ever happen), which is a nonstarter. So we’ll just have to live with this, as wrong and misguided as it may be.

 

Baseball

A $6 Million Indictment

By Sam Fels 1866 0

$6 million. It’s a lot of money to you and me, so before someone pulls that arrow out of the quiver let me head that off. But it’s not a lot of money to a Major League baseball team. And that’s what the cost, or savings, was for the Cubs to get over the line and decide their bullpen needed Craig Kimbrel. And the corresponding taxes, which would have been at most another $2 million. For strictly on the field matters, Cubs fans should be excited about the Kimbrel pushing Strop to the 8th. He might not be what he was, but he’s miles better than what was here.

But at the cost of how many wins already? They might not matter in the end. The Cubs are in first now, they very well may be by the time Kimbrel makes it to Clark St., and if you win the division you win the division and it doesn’t really matter if you do it with 96 wins or 100 (though can’t help but notice the last three WS champs had 100+ wins and the last six WS participants were 97+). Perhaps that’s the bet the Cubs are making.

It’s not just the Cubs, of course. Every team could have used Kimbrel. Every team should have been trying to get him in the winter, when this is supposed to be done. They can throw whatever reason they want at you with their bullshit, but it was all about squeezing another dollar of profit and not about making their teams better in some stealthy way. It was so blatant and callous, it’s impossible to ignore.

Am I supposed to believe that $6M+ a draft pick that very well may be a nothing one day was so important that it had to wait this long? And how are Cubs fans supposed to feel good that it took a personal disaster for Ben Zobrist for the Ricketts to decide that money was open now? That’s no one’s fault really, it’s not like they planned it, but yet you can’t help but notice the sheer coldness of it.

I can’t sit here and honestly believe that the Cubs front office thought this bullpen was acceptable to go into a season with. They’re not stupid. That would have been criminal incompetence, the kind you only see on Madison St. (take your pick of which resident there). They knew this pen would need augmenting. They knew it in January. So why are we waiting until July?

The strangest thing is the quiet, outright silence, about it from Theo. I don’t expect him to go firing on his boss in the press, but something is amiss. Maybe he was told it was a one-year thing, and maybe that’s why they’re leaking Marquee opening up the cash flow next winter already. But I can’t believe Theo would be delighted to work under a complete factitious budget that is only in the Ricketts’s head. They’re worth $2.2 billion, I feel like that has to be mentioned every time.

Maybe my eyes are lasered on the Ricketts’s these days because they’ve been so distasteful, and the Kimbrel signing comes on the same day it was out there that a RNC donor event will be held at Wrigley (the proximity to Boystown should make for interesting viewing). What’s pretty clear, and should have been for a while, is that the Ricketts kids are just a bunch of vapid assholes convinced of their superiority by their born on third nature. Hardly their story alone.

And yet they end up with the closer they needed long ago, and very well in time to get the Cubs to the playoffs. And I’ll still cheer when Kimbrel starts firing fastballs by people, because I’ll be damned if I’m going to let a vapid asshole like Tom Ricketts rob me of something I’ve loved since I could walk. Maybe that’s what I tell myself as a rationalization, along with, “There is no such thing as ethical capitalism.”

The whole thing just feels gross. Craig Kimbrel had to wait until now to be paid what he was worth, and he had to wait for a fellow pro’s life to fall apart, and he had to wait for someone with more money than all of us combined will ever know to decide that a pittance was ok to part with now, and he had to wait that some kid who he’ll never meet and may never make it won’t be tossed as a make-weight for merely signing a contract.

I can’t believe the Cubs were incompetent this winter, because that’s just not what they were. So they were lying. It’s clear now, though it was then. It’s hard to feel good about that.

 

 

Baseball

Cubs Are Pushing Hard For Craig Kimbrel, Because They Have To Be

By Sam Fels 1399 0

It would be hard to believe that the cost of a draft pick, or the few million in prorated dollars the Cubs will save now, was enough to put them off Craig Kimbrel in the winter. But apparently it was, and the Cubs have waited for the in-season discount to heavily go after him. Reports today from various Athletic outlets have the Cubs really making a move. Whatever that may mean, but it would be hard to believe that Kimbrel is taking a one-year deal.

From the Cubs side, they almost have no choice. They don’t have a wealth of prospects they can keep tossing aside to get the requisite number of relievers they need, which is multiple. So they might as well get a good one for free. They tend to leave room in the budget for midseason acquisitions, and we don’t know how much of that Kimbrel would gobble up. They’ve also been making noise that the establishment of Marquee is going to turn the cash spigot on next winter, and this may be a small advance on that. Believe that when you see it, though.

Are there baseball concerns with Kimbrel? Some, yes, but it depends on what your scales are. Kimbrel’s strikeouts in ’18 were down from ’17, but that’s only because ’17 was such an galactic season from him. He struck out 50% in ’17. Half. No one is going to keep up that pace, and he didn’t also have to. He struck out 38.9% last year, which is so far beyond anything anyone else in the Cubs pen can do that it’s not even worth talking about. It’s about his career-average, which is 41.6%. It’s not a huge concern.

His walks are a bit more. They were 12.6% last year, which is too high but also a number he’s gone over before. But even with those walks, his WHIP was o.99. Yeah, walks are bad, but if no one ever hits you, you can get away with it. Sure, that WHIP was down from ’17’s dungeon master 0.68, but right in line with his career 0.92. It shouldn’t get your hackles too far raised.

Encouragingly, whatever contact Kimbrel did give up, it was much softer, as he saw a 12% dip in hard-contact. If his strikeouts aren’t going to be half anymore, then softer contact is important. Kimbrel is getting it.

Another note was that Kimbrel’s velocity was down between his last two seasons, from 98.3 to 97.1. But that ’17 mark was a spike, because 97.1 is his career average. His curve got a little more slurvy last year, which might raise an eyebrow. It lost some vertical drop but gained horizontal cut. It’s really the change of pace that’s important, but that’s something to watch if he ends up here. If this matters, and I don’t know if it does, his curve had the same spin-rate the last two years. The horizontal release point on it moved farther wide, meaning he was throwing more across his body, which might explain why it had that slurve-type movement. Whether that’s intentional or not we’ll find out.

Another yellow light was last year’s playoff performance, where he gave up runs in his first four appearances against both the Yankees and Astros, and then another two runs in Game 4 against the Dodgers. In the interim he loaded up four outings where he didn’t give up anything over four innings, just one hit. There’s really not much to explain. He wasn’t good, facing some other worldly lineups, and if he were a Cub he’d have to face one or two more for everything to work out the way we want it. But the question would be if he can’t do it, who can?

Kimbrel isn’t a cure-all. The Cubs would need at least one more arm, preferable from the left side but at least someone who gets lefties out. Still, Kimbrel, Strop, Mystery Acquisition, Cishek is a nice base, and if Carl Edwards or Dillon Maples (or Alzolay?)  or both ever figure it out, with this rotation, I’ll take my chances. There’s still a lot of ifs there, but the signing of Kimbrel would make it seem like there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

And this is a season the Cubs should try and maximize. They might not have this good of a rotation again, even if it had a wonky couple weeks there. The offense is really good, despite what everyone is screaming while stabbing themselves in various sensitive places. Maybe it’s just the right to get thwacked by the Dodgers, but in a short series, take your swing.

They’ll have competition, but the Cubs probably have to make this work.

Everything Else

It’s Not Going To Be Ditka In New Orleans

By Sam Fels 1758 0

When the NHL schedule comes out, it won’t only be Hawks fans and media circling the date that Joel Quenneville brings the Panthers to the United Center (and if you’re NBC, you’re pushing for that game to be something you can throw on during the Sunday broadcasts later in the season. That is if you cared. Which you don’t). Apparently Joel himself will be too. And that’s fair.

Q says all the right things here about it being a special place and the fans being great to him. And that’s all true. We certainly had our issues with Quenneville’s lineup choices at times, but never his tactics (other than the power play, which it looks more and more he just didn’t value, correctly figuring if his team was good at evens and had a strong kill it really wouldn’t matter. And for the most part, he was right). Or the man himself, really. And he deserves all that’s coming to him when he returns–the video package, the ovations, the adulation. There are three coaches in Chicago history that have multiple championships in anything resembling the modern era. George Halas, Phil Jackson, and Joel Quenneville. Clearly he stands in very unique company.

Still, it’s going to be awfully awkward for the Hawks and especially their front office, especially if they don’t get off to a great start and one that’s better than the Panthers do. And the latter part is probably going to be tricky, because the Panthers already have a lot on the roster that’s been underserved or underperformed and as the rumor goes, they’re about to add The Russian Spies from Columbus. Clearly they’re all in.

Which is going to make for an awkward juxtaposition to a front office that didn’t think it needed the coach on the other bench, the highly decorated one, if the Hawks are sputtering and the Panthers are humming. And if their Coach Cool Youth Pastor continues to be a bit mealy-mouthed both in coaching and speaking. I’m kind of looking forward to it in some ways.

In others, I wish it were tomorrow to get it over with. We’ve seen how this town responds to returning legends, and that was when they were past their sell-by date. There’s going to be a lot of, “DEY NEVER SHOULDA FIRED Q DEY SHOULDA CANNED DAT BOWMAN” especially if the Panthers win that game. And maybe that’s right, though considering where things go there had to be a parting of the ways. You can argue with the Hawks’ hire, I certainly wouldn’t stop you, but the letting go of Quenneville came too late, if anything.

Another fascinating watch is watching Tallon and Quenneville work together for an extended period of time. Remember, they only really had one off-season together here, and not even all of it. That was the summer Marian Hossa came to town, Tomas Kopecky carried all of his belongings here, and there was also John Madden. The midseason acquisition that year was Sami Pahlsson, who seemed a Q player but got hurt somewhere along the line and was fine. If the Panthers go whole hog here and sign Bobrovsky and Panarin there won’t be much room for anything else, so we won’t get a true glimpse of a Tallon-Q ethos.

While Ditka got a win in Soldier Field with the Saints, marking the darkest day in Chicago sports history, his time with the Saints proved not too much more than a farce. For those of us who have known for a while that Ditka was pretty much an idiot along for the ride in ’85 and one of the main reasons that championship has no companions, his that New Orleans stay was affirmation.

Q’s duration in Florida, however long it goes, won’t be that. He’ll most likely turn the Panthers into a playoff team, though in that division you’re basically hoping for a wild card spot. If I had to guess, they won’t win a Cup. Maybe a round or two here and there. They’ll have a good run, and it’ll look like Q is a pretty good coach who can get you all the way given a world class base to build off of. I don’t think the Panthers have one. Barkov is. Ekblad seems to be a cut below Norris level, though maybe Q is the one to punt him up there just as he did Keith. I’d be surprised. Bobrovsky has it in him, but he’ll also be over 30 and recently paid. Rarely a good combination.

Still, it won’t keep everyone from reacting with heavy breathing. Might as well start preparing.