Baseball

Is It In My Head?

By Sam Fels 1467 0

You couldn’t have scripted a better baseball game than last night’s Cubs-Dodgers one to come on the same day as Ken Rosenthal wrote this on The Athletic. 10 runs scored, all on home runs. That goes along with the 17 strikeouts combined by each team, which these days isn’t even that high of a number. A lot of days one team reaches that on its own, but it’s not too hard to remember a day when that didn’t happen.

Many pundits and professional viewers have been complaining about the lack of action in baseball for a couple years now. And the numbers prove that it’s become a Three True Outcome game (homer, walk, strikeout). There are definitely less balls in play. And now we just have homers to make anything happen. We have more of them than we know what to do with. Or do we?

Certainly, over the past two seasons especially I’ve noticed how the game has changed. But would I notice as much if there weren’t writers like Rosenthal or Joe Sheehan (both of whom I really like, I have to point out) and many others (which I don’t) pointing it out seemingly daily? I might, but then I might not. But when you have someone screaming every day that “Nothing is happening in these games!!” surely you look more for the action that isn’t happening.

If I were in a vacuum, at least a media one, would the lack of balls in play really bother me? After all, I enjoy watching pitchers with overpowering stuff. It’s fun to watch someone blow 97 MPH by hitters or send them spiraling into the ground like that thing the Ninja Turtles used to get to the Earth’s core to bother Shredder and Krang with a deflector-shield curve/slider. And every baseball fan enjoys watching one of those get sent to the goddamn moon. They say that too much of a good thing is bad, but I’ve never been convinced. Sure, I love a bases loaded double or triple too, but were those all that common 10 years ago? Their uniqueness is what makes them special, at least in part. I’m not sure I get that bored of homers, and I don’t think I’m alone.

So do the baseballs being golf balls ruin my enjoyment? A touch, but rarely. Bellinger’s first homer last night felt a bit cheap, because even he didn’t think he hit it very well. And then it sails over the wall the opposite way in Dodger Stadium at night, which is supposed to be really hard to do. I’m biased, because I’m a Cubs fan who loathes the Dodgers and is starting to feel the same way about Bellinger individually, but that was one that had me looking side-eyed at. But I don’t find myself doing that too often. The explosion of homers doesn’t feel like Wrigley with the wind blowing out, where harmless flies are carried out as hitters slam their bats down and then sheepishly jog around the bases. You can’t base anything on feel, but it feels like it’s just well hit balls that probably would have gone out anyway going even farther out.

The only thing about the juiced-ball that I find strange is MLB throwing its hands up and claiming to not know anything about it or not having anything to do with it. They’re either lying or stupid, possibly both. How could you not be in total control of like, the entire center of the game? And if weren’t then why aren’t you now? Hell, the NFL went to war with one of its own franchises over the condition of its ball, and that’s a sport where they let teams control their owns spheres/spheroids.

Do fans care about there being too many homers? I wonder. Sure, attendance and viewership is down, and maybe that’s the only argument you need. But that could just as easily be about so many teams not even trying, and one of your truly good teams playing in Tampa. What would Baltimore’s attendance be if they had the Rays team? I’m not sure there’s a large swath of fans who have been turned off because there’s a lot of homers. Football has a lot of touchdowns, doesn’t seem to bother them much.

I guess my other complaint about a juiced ball is it doesn’t fit in with the natural evolution of the game. We know hitters are trying to lift the ball more, pitchers throw harder, shifting defenses, all that. So if more homers were only due to that, you would just say that’s how the game has grown and eventually will shift again when more pitchers are at the top of the zone and more hitters have to work with the open spaces they have. The game using a Titlelist as a ball causes all of that to be slowed or stopped completely, because more guys can just hit it over shifts and walls, deservedly or not. Homers would be on the rise without the Slazengers because of a change of style, but they wouldn’t be like this and it wouldn’t feel as artificial.

It’s funny, because writers like Rosenthal bemoan how attendance is down and baseball is falling behind, and then spend just as much space telling you why the game sucks. And I’ll agree with them that it is fun to watch players like Baez run the bases or Kiermaier or even Bellinger make plays in the field. And they’re getting less chance to do so. But you wonder how many defensive plays that bring people out of their seats are being sacrificed for homers that also bring people out of their seats. After all, more balls in play will result in routine fly balls far more than the diving catch in the gap or the nailing of a runner at second. I would take some convincing that this is what the routine fan is crying out for.

Something tells me a normal baseball would still see a lot of home runs being hit. After all, these are better athletes than they’ve ever been with faster bat-speed turning around pitches that are being hurled at greater speeds than ever before. It’s probably easier to get a 95-MPH fastball to go far than an 88-MPH one.

I notice games like last night’s now, and I definitely remark how different it is than what I grew up with. I don’t know that has to be a bad thing, and I don’t know how much I’d notice if everyone wasn’t yelling for me to notice. I guess I’m undecided, and I would guess most fans are too, despite what those with the pens and microphones keep telling us to think.

 

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target: Nazem Kadri

By Sam Fels 2435 0

Before we get started, we didn’t do one of these yesterday because talking about hockey didn’t feel right yesterday. When you’re in this morass, do you really want to even think about next season right now? But anyway, this is our charge now so let’s resume.

Ok, Nazem Kadri is a complete penis. He’s more likely to do something horribly damaging to your team when it matters most than help it. In fact, had he kept his head on straight for once the Leafs might have actually beaten the Bruins. Any future infraction from this dickhead is going to result in a long suspension, and seeing as how you can’t trust him to learn or trust your substitute teacher of a coach to straighten him out, the risks are quite clear.

But here’s the thing. When he’s not trying reenact the Battle Of Saxony by himself, Nazem Kadri is a hell of a player. He has four 50+ point seasons on his resume (one was at that pace in 2013), and he’s done that mostly taking the dungeon shifts as a checking center either as the #3 center behind Matthews and Bozak or Tavares this year. He won 55% of his draws this year, which you know will still make some people in the Hawks’ front office tumescent. He put up 44 points this year mostly playing with a corpse in Marleau and something called Connor Brown. He’ll produce with just about anyone.

And the Hawks have a need, whether they want to admit it or not. As it stands right now, you don’t really want Jonathan Toews taking a massive amount of draws and shift-starts in his own end. But the Hawks only have one other player who can do that in David Kampf. Strome needs to be completely sheltered, and really so does Anisimov until you finally get him off this roster. Swapping in Kadri and punting Arty to wherever will take him for an Edible Arrangement gives you two centers you can leash to the d-zone, allowing Toews to really focus on the offensive end. At this point in his career, it’s one or the other for the most part.

Second, Kadri is cheap. His cap-hit is essentially the same as Anisimov’s, but you get a ton more. You get more skill, more speed, and a far better defensive player. Sure, he’s signed for three more years but at 28 he’s not likely to fall off a cliff before it’s up. And even if the offense starts to dry up you still have a pretty hellacious checking center on your hands. And there’s really nothing in the system at center unless the Hawks take Turcotte (which they’re going to), but you can worry about that shuffle whenever Turcotte is ready. Or you could just not take Turcotte if you swing for Kadri here.

Where this all falls apart is that the Hawks don’t really have anything the Leafs want. The Leafs need NHL-ready d-men. If they were run by a complete jackass, as they were in the past, you could probably really sell them on the offensive production and the cheapness of Gustafsson, which would still allow them to make moves considering he makes nothing. But Kyle Dubas probably isn’t a complete moron. Prospects don’t do the Leafs a whole lot of good as they are all about NOW NOW NOW, unless you could involved a third team for them to swing those prospects to. If you were looking for an actual landing spot for Keith, you might be able to sell him on this given Babcock and their chances but I don’t know that you could sell the Leafs on it. But there’s been no whisper that Keith has asked out or that the Hawks have asked him if he wants out.

Yes, Kadri wouldn’t solve your top six winger deficiency. But if you’re going 19-17-43-64 down the middle you can probably live with some third-line winger moonlighting on the top six. No, he doesn’t help the defense but his cap number is low enough, especially with any jettisoning of Anisimov, that you would retain all the flexibility to do something about that as well.

Yes, the gray matter is a concern. The hope would be that even with an overmatched coach, a leadership stable of Toews, Keith, Seabrook would keep him in a line a ton better than whatever it was in Toronto. The Hawks have made that bet before.

It hinges on just how sick the Leafs are of his bullshit. You get the sense if you could have made this trade in April they would have given him to you for a song. But now that time has let everything cool, it’ll be harder. But it makes sense, if the Hawks want to get creative.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Dodgers: You Wanted The Best…

By Sam Fels 1254 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 38-29   Dodgers 45-23

GAMETIMES: Thursday and Friday 9:10, Saturday 8:10, Sunday 6:05

TV: NBCSN Thursday, WGN Friday, ABC Saturday, ESPN Sunday

WE KNOW YOU LOVE LA, THERE’S NOTHING LEFT TO SAY: True Blue LA

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Jon Lester vs. Clayton Kershaw

Kyle Hendricks vs. Rich Hill

Yu Darvish vs. Walker Buehler

Jose Quintana vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Addison Russell – 2B

David Bote – 3B (batting 9th)

PROBABLE DODGERS LINEUP

Enrique Hernandez – LF

Justin Turner – 3B

David Freese – 1B

Cody Bellinger – RF

Chris Taylor – SS

Max Muncy – 2B

Alex Verdugo – CF

Austin Barnes – C

 

The only thing that could make a frustrating series in Colorado with it’s Peewee’s Playhouse rules is backing that up by having to deal with the National League’s best team for four nights. Which makes it pretty damn tough to get out of this road trip over .500, as that would mean taking three of four in a place where the home team is 25-7. Good times all around.

So where to start with the Dodgers? Maybe Cody Bellinger doing a damn fine Mike Trout impression for two and a half months?That’s what he’s been doing, cutting down his strikeouts while losing none of his power and becoming a plus right fielder even though he’s a first baseman (still convinced he has rohypnol in his house though). There’s Joc Pederesen cutting down his strikeouts and still providing the power he always did. There’s latest lab project Max Muncy providing offensive force from a variety of positions. Or maybe Justin Turner and his dependable dominance. Perhaps we should stop.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s twofold: One, the Cubs are catching them right after Cory Seager had his latest twang and he’s out for a month at least. Second, the Dodgers effectiveness against lefties is still not nearly as strong as the other side, and the Cubs will be tossing two of them. That brings Enrique Hernandez into the lineup and Chris Taylor, and both have been not good. But it’s not much, as both Muncy and Bellinger still hit lefties really well, Turner is still around…and well that’s enough.

Going to the rotation won’t provide any solace, as the Dodgers have five starters with sub-4.00 ERAs. And Kershaw has maybe been their third or fourth best starter as he ages. It’s a wonder how anyone hits Buehler at all given his stuff, and Rich Hill is still here TO SHOW YOU HOW MUCH IT MEANS TO HIM GODDAMMIT HE CARES SO MUCH CAN’T YOU SEE HOW MUCH HE FUCKING CARES GOD HE CARES SO MUCH. Ryu has been the best starter in the NL. So even if they don’t bash your skull in with the bats, they’ll probably smother you with the pitching.

If there’s been anything resembling a bugaboo, it’s the pen. So they’ll be competing with the Cubs for an arm or two in the trade market, using pieces from their system that’s become a goddamn assembly line. Kenley Jensen hasn’t been as automatic, though still very hard to break through on, and the bridge to him has been rickety. Joe Kelly got a contract to solve that even though he’s always sucked. Pedro Baez has been his usual highly effective while making everyone understand Nietzche while doing so. Ross Stripling has been a touch unlucky, while Yimi Garcia has been straight up bad. But generally, they only have to get 3-6 outs per night which just about anyone can manage, even Dave Roberts.

So yeah, four with all that. The Cubs got two of three from the Dodgers in April, before they ascended to whatever plane they’re on now. There are no such things as markers or measuring sticks in a season this long, but there’s more than a small chance the Cubs and Dodgers will renew their blood feud in the NLCS come October. It would be refreshing for us, not the players, if they looked like they belonged on the same field this weekend. It’s always fascinating to see Kyle Hendricks go against a lineup this high-powered, and it’ll be another test for Darvish.

No one said this will be fun.

Baseball

Dodgers Spotlight: Another Weapon They Didn’t Need

By Sam Fels 1278 0

It’s bad enough that the Dodgers have a weaponized, flexible, young lineup that’s been punching holes in the ozone all season. The Dodgers have run roughshod over the National League now for basically two and a half seasons. Sure, last season’s record and needing a 163rd game to win the division doesn’t sound like it, but any of their underlying stats told you that they were the class of the Senior Circuit. They apparently are determined to set that record straight this season.

In the past couple seasons, the Dodgers rotation has been good, but beyond Clayton Kershaw it had been more to the functional side than dominant. Perhaps that’s what kept them from capping it all off with a World Series wins, as true nuclear lineups like the Astros and Red Sox essentially pummeled them.

Not so anymore. Kershaw doesn’t even have to be Kershaw anymore, and they’re still rocking five starters with ERAs under 4.00. Walker Buehler promised this last year, Rich Hill infuriatingly has been this effective his whole tenure there. But Hyun-Jin Ryu is the real surprise. Then again, the real surprise is that he’s been upright for more than four or five starts.

Ryu hasn’t made 30 starts in six seasons, and he’s only crossed 20 twice in the five seasons since. So taking the ball every fifth day already this season is something of a win. And of course, when he is, no one has been able to touch him. He currently has a microchip of an ERA of 1.36, a WHIP of 0.80, and a FIP of 2.62. All of which lead the National League (he’s second in FIP behind Scherzer barely) and make Ryu your clubhouse leader for the Cy Young.

Ryu has been using a sinker more often this year instead of his fastball, but it’s his fastball that is showing a heightened effectiveness. Whereas in the past hitters managed a .283 average against his fastball, it’s only .203 now. Ryu is getting more whiffs and foul balls off it, but the contact is just about the same. But Ryu seems to be combatting the new swing planes of hitters by using it only in the upper part of the zone. See for yourself:

Another change is that Ryu is using his change more. He’s throwing it a quarter of the time, up from 18% last year. That’s how he’s been getting all the grounders, as nearly 60% of the changes that are put in play end up with grass stains. It’s become his go-to, as he throws it more than any other pitch with two strikes.

There is an element of mirrors to Ryu’s season so far. He’s got a .248 BABIP, which is some 40 points below his career average. And he’s getting a 94 left-on-base percentage, which clearly won’t last. The Dodgers have a great infield defense of course, so the higher number of grounders should lower the BABIP. But more of those runners will score. Ryu’s 1.6% BB% is simply ridiculous, and would be the lowest since Carlos Silva’s 1.2% in 2005 and no other marks since 1980. Maybe he can keep it up, but it hasn’t been done in a very long time or at all.

Combined with Buehler, Kershaw, and Hill, the Dodgers have a rotation that can slice through anyone in a playoff series, which obscures perhaps their one mini-weakness which is the bridge to Kenley Jansen (who hasn’t been his normal self this year). As if they didn’t have everything already.

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets – Saying Goodbye To The ’18-19 Boston Bruins

By Sam Fels 2390 0

You fucking fuckwits.

One of the reasons that most everyone hates the Patriots is that the path always seems to make itself in front of them. Not only are they ahead of the game, but their division has had unmatched and an almost incomprehensible incompetence and asshoolery for over a decade. Which means the Pats get six wins every year automatically to start, which means they only have to find five or six out of the other 10 to play at home through the playoffs. Just their aura has turned everyone closest to them into unidentifiable goo.

That’s what befell the Bruins here. Must be a Boston thing. The juggernaut in their own division broke all their ribs trying to fellate themselves in the first round, while the Bruins drew the one team that has such a mental block about them all they have to do is stand still and watch the doofuses on the other bench speak in tongues and break their backs doing some sort of seance. From there all they had was playoff neophytes through to the Final, ones that were getting nosebleeds from the rarified air they hadn’t experienced before. All too easy.

And then all it was in the Final was a team that didn’t belong. That didn’t know what they were doing there and kept turning around to find the relief of someone telling them to get out of there. The Bruins had 11 days off, a gift this time of year for nothing else but to stuff Patrice Bergeron’s organs back out of his legs where they seem to keep falling during any playoff run.

And yet they kept making it harder. Long stretches of trying to do the Humpty dance at the offensive blue line instead of just getting it deep and seeing if the Blues defense could get it out, which they can’t. The false impression that Zdeno Chara can do anything any more, which he can’t. Another Brad Marchand disappearance (and we’ll get back to this fraudulent shit weasel in a second). Bergeron injury. We’ve seen it all before. It’s the script.

And yet the Bruins had it in their hands. They’d engineered what should have been the Blues-iest moment in history, deflating that sweat-stained and illiterate balloon and party they were so ready to have. Game 7 at home, after pulling the pin. All they had to do was basically show up and not fuck up. All they had to do was bury the puck in a three-quarters open net instead of firing it back into the guts of a scrambling Jordan Binnington.

But that’s what the Bruins, and Marchand, did. It was easier to score, and would have changed the game and series. But this is June, which means it’s when Brad Marchand turns into a gaseous cloud.

Here’s Marchand’s record in his last two final appearances. One 5-on-3 goal, one empty net goal. That’s it. 13 games, and the supposed best left winger in the game can’t be found when it matters most with the a space telescope. Here, let’s revisit his coup-de-fuckstick:

I don’t know what’s best/worst. His Roger Dorn Ole bullshit at the blue line or his “Fuck it it’s your problem now” shuffle off to the bench with all of seven seconds left. This is Brad Marchand when it counts. Enjoy paying him until he’s David Backes II.

Here’s a list of teams to lose two Finals since the Great Lockout of ’05: Boston.

Congrats, it’s what you’ve always wanted, your own exclusive club where you can chew a truck-full of Skoal, pretend the Dropkicks are good and represent you in anyway, and talk about how Cam Neely could still score 50 in this league (that is if the league hadn’t been “pussified,” which is definitely how Bruins fans and execs described it). We know what happens here. You’ll learn all the wrong lessons because you still let Mike Milbury hang around for some godforsaken reason. Despite your success the past two years based on a quick defense and playing as fast as possible, along with Bergeron’s genius, you’ll conclude it’s because you’re not tough enough. You’ll let your BarfStool fandom bully you into thinking this. You know it to be true. Here comes Wayne Simmonds and Braydon Coburn. Fucking book it. This is the only organization that could double-down on a Backes signing, and they will.

You’ll blame Tuukka Rask, and finally break him when he gives up three goals in a period in the first week of October. If he has any sense he’ll pull a Patrick Roy right after Kevin Paul Dupont belches up his column questioning his heart, and then he’ll go on to win a Conn Smythe with the Flames. It’s what he deserves. It’s what you deserve.

It couldn’t have been any simpler, and you could have saved us from this great plague. You made every mistake possible and yet it was still there for you. The Blues kept tossing you the Cup, the one you kept chanting you wanted, and the Bruins kept receiving it like a person seeing a 16-inch softball for the first time.

I’ll tell you what happens now. You’ll lose to the Leafs next year. Everything’s broken, and you broke it. The gates are open, and everyone is coming for theirs. That’s if you don’t return to your natural state and getting fetal for the Canadiens in the first round. And then Krejci, Marchand, and Bergeron will be too old. There’s nothing behind them. This was it for you. You can’t fuck up a chance like this and think you’ll ever get another one. Hockey may be random and weird and stupid, but it doesn’t allow for that kind of compassion. It will exact its pound of flesh.

Also your biggest celebrity fans are either the leader of the most racist, misogynist sports empire in the world, a comedian who stole all of his stuff from Bill Hicks, or some dipshit actor who somehow keeps drugging Emily Blunt into believing he’s either talented or handsome. How perfect.

So in the words of Jon Hamm, perhaps the only good thing about St. Louis:

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Lose Two Of Three In Colorado: The Rocky Mountain Way Can Kiss My Ass

By Sam Fels 1340 0

Game 1 Box Score: Rockies 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Rockies 10, Cubs 3

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 10, Rockies 1

Maybe I just forget every season, or I truly didn’t realize how torturous series in Denver are. Or maybe it was not wanting to lose the buzz from that homestand so quickly, and maybe losing just two of three doesn’t do that. I leave that to you. But good god, you’re never comfortable, sure something will go wrong, and the more you watch them you’re sure the Rockies are some gimmick team that are helpless outside their own environs. It feels cheap in a way.

Anyway, each team got a blowout and the Rockies got the coin-flip. While the massive bullpen meltdowns are no more damaging, though harder to watch, it’s the slow leaks that feel worse. Sure, Montgomery just hung one pitch that got hit to goddamn Telluride, and then Cishek was the victim of some fiendish BABIP Kung Fu Treachery with Murphy’s ball hitting the motherfucking bag. Maybe Rizzo doesn’t get there anyway, but I’m willing to bet he would have. Even McMahon’s game-winning hit was a product of Coors. You can say all that.

But that’s the problem. Even when the pen isn’t actively lighting itself on fire it still leaks a run here or there, and in close games that’s all it takes when the other team has a decent pen. Montgomery might not be as dependable as he was, and his 5.17 ERA and 1.7 WHIP suggest he’s not. Perhaps the yo-yoing of his role has finally taken its toll.

The Cubs still have a few weeks to survive until Craig Kimbrel arrives, and even then the pen won’t be sorted unless Carl Edwards Jr. finally finds the fountain of control, Cishek proves he’s not still dragging from last year, and either Maples finds that same fountain or they acquire someone or Brandon Morrow actually comes up for air. It’s the only thing holding this team back.

Anyway…

The Two Obs

-Schwarber now tickling a .900 OPS out of the leadoff spot. Everyone can kiss my ass and call it a love story.

-It’s funny how we feel differently about Yu Darvish‘s start than we do about Jon Lester‘s on Sunday, even though they were both four runs over six innings. Obviously, one held the opponent down to give his team a chance to come back while the other coughed up a lead. But that’s mitigated by this being Coors Field. Darvish didn’t walk anyone, which is a big step. Of late, Yu is losing his slider less, and his straight fastball more, which is probably a little easier to control. It’s getting there, and while he might be the highest-paid starter which makes his #5 status feel wrong, it’s still a hell of a fifth starter to have if that’s how things are right now.

–Cole Hamels got half-whiffs on any change-up the Rockies swung at today, which is probably the only way to get out of that dungeon alive. Your curve is going to be affected, but your change won’t. Hamels has been nails his last three starts, which makes it unfortunate he’s the only one the Cubs won’t get to use against the Gashouse Gorillas this weekend.

-Boy, Victor Caratini is putting to rest those overcooked fears from Spring Training that Willson would get too tired come the end of the year, huh? Caratini has also been a plus-framer so far this year, whereas Contreras has been just about even.

-Heyward is a good weekend from getting up over an .800 OPS again, which would be more than acceptable.

-Quintana has shied away from using his change the past two starts, both against the Rockies. Both starts saw him give up three runs but one was in over seven innings where he didn’t get out of the fifth last night. When he doesn’t use that change, he becomes a two-pitch pitcher which is a real problem when he can’t locate the fastball.

-Boy the Rockies get red-assed, huh? To be fair the whole thing was dumb. They weren’t trying to hit Kris Bryant twice in a game, and I don’t know how hitting Arenado makes Bryant un-hit or will prevent anyone from hitting Bryant again. We really think a pitcher on another team is even going to know about this, much less think, “I’m not going to throw inside to one of the best hitters in the game because they might plunk my guy?” Awfully complicated. Baez putting one 450 feet away is how you do it. Do it more often.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 7 Preview – Cue The Europe

By Sam Fels 1583 0

vs.

GAMETIME: 7pm Central 

TV: NBC

PISSHEADS AND CHOWDAHEADS: St. Louis Gametime, Stanley Cup Of Chowder

If it feels like this goddamn Final has gone on for two months, you’re not alone. While the added day off for travel makes sense and should have been instituted a while ago, it does add four days to the series so you go from two weeks to two and a half, and it makes a difference. Hockey on June 12th is just dumb.

Or maybe it feels like it’s been this long because it’s two teams you’d rather not see win, and we spent all that time staring into the abyss that St. Louis could actually pull this off. Those two days felt like 70. And they still could, clearly, but a Game 7 on the road doesn’t much seem in character for them. Then again, being here at all doesn’t seem in character for them, so everything we knew and built our foundations upon is rubbish. Good way to live.

So it comes to this. Analyzing one hockey game can be futile, because anything can flip it. A bad call, a missed call, a delay of game penalty, a too many men penalty, someone falling on their ass, really anything.

Also, if Tuukka Rask plays as well as he did in Game 6, it isn’t going to matter much anyway. He is the reason the Bruins traipsed to the Final, and the layoff clearly took him down a level (down was the only way for him to go), but he may have found it again.

What Blues fans will be watching intently is if Jordan Binnington is going to revert to Blues traditional goaltending after letting in Brandon Carlo’s double-play ball through him and into the net. BABIP Kung Fu Treachery can come to hockey too, people. You would imagine the Blues aren’t going to get this with a middling goalie performance as the Bruins will make the Blues work at least on the power play, and Rask isn’t going to let the bottom fall out either. You know what we’re betting on.

Again, it’s a bit silly to pinpoint one player, because any fuckwit can come up with two goals and have his name live forever. Remember Max Talbot scoring twice in a Game 7? That dude was just a live action Pepe Le Peux. Still, most will focus on the Bruins top line. If they score, the Bruins tend to win. They hadn’t really until Game 6, with Marchand pulling a Jagr and only showing up when his team was on a two-man advantage and then Pastrnak got one in the third. The narrative has been that Bergeron has been getting pushed around in this series, but I don’t know that I buy it. He’s only been in the red in both attempts and expected goals in a game in Game 5 and Game 2, so he just hasn’t gotten the rub.

You would expect Bruce Cassidy to continue to keep Bergeron’s line and the Chara-McAvoy pairing separate, mostly to keep Chara away from Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko which he simply hasn’t had the mobility to deal with. That still leaves O’Reilly’s line as the assignment, and he’s obviously been going off of late. One feels if the Blues get this, it will be from that line. If anyone else dents on either side, then it’ll be their night.

It’s hard to see the Bruins losing three straight home games. The Blues have the bigger questions in goal and on special teams, which is not where you want to be in a Game 7. But again, it’s one game, where anything stupid or inexplicable is possible. But hey, at least it will be over come 11pm or 12am, right?

Baseball

Giolito And The All-Star Game

By Sam Fels 1339 0

You may expect me to come here and shit on the All-Star Game and tell you it doesn’t matter if Lucas Giolito starts it for the American League or not. And then do various Rock impressions and references, which I’ll be doing anyway around my house because that’s how I get through the day. But that’s not what I’m here to do.

The ASG has lost some gloss to everyone, I think, but mostly that’s because of how the game is played. Everyone gets in, everyone gets on a roster after expansions and injuries and pitchers declared ineligible. The every team rule also is a bit stupid, but at least that one I understand. It wasn’t the tie in 2002 that cheapened it, it was the response to it. Not everyone needs to play in it, and keeping the best of the best on the field longer would go some way to restoring the luster of it. Then again, I totally understand those who would rather catch a flight home somewhere around the 7th inning and get a mini-break in during a very long season.

That said, the All-Star starter still carries a lot of weight, at least to me. It’s the spot that can’t get borked by some stupid fan campaign to load votes onto whoever a fanbase has decided needs to be there. It doesn’t get altered by the every team rule, because it’s just about the only spot where the best player for the first half gets his role without any bullshit. Sure, he might have to bow out if he starts on the Sunday before or whatever the rule is, but he gets the title. Those who take the mound on that Tuesday in July first, there’s something special about them. They are unquestionably the best at what they do for that season at that point.

So the question now becomes should Giolito be the AL starter in Cleveland? Yes, of course. What’re you stupid? Get outta here. I ain’t got time for this.

Ok, obviously it’s not that simple. Giolito does have the best FIP in the AL, and the third best ERA behind Jake Odorizzi and Charlie Morton. By fWAR, Giolito is the best pitcher in the league right now. According to Baseball reference, he’s behind Mike Minor, Verlander, and Matthew Boyd. So let’s just say fuck Baseball Reference, huh? (I don’t mean that. Love you, BBREF). By ERA-, which does take park effects into account, Giolito trails Odorizzi and Morton as well. When it comes to ERA, I would argue that both Odorizzi and Morton play behind significantly better defenses than Giolito does, though the Twins only have the significant advantage in the outfield.

I suppose it would be hypocritical to argue that MLB should step in, but this is a league that’s had a hard time marketing new stars and getting them into the consciousness of the casual sporting public. And Odorizzi or Morton are hardly household names. But Giolito carries more weight, as he plays in a team that’s been dormant for a while. Sure, Morton plays for a team that they need to get ANYONE to watch, and his selection it could be argued would remind people that the Rays exist. They also gave Blake Snell, deservedly, the fucking Cy Young last year and still no one cares. The Twins are the new hotness as well, so Odorizzi along with the raft of others they’ll have at the game could lead that charge.

But of the three, it feels like the selection of Giolito would be part of a start of something, a marker in a career that could go just about anywhere. This is probably as brightly as Morton or Odorizzi will burn. It would, hopefully, not be the pinnacle of Giolito’s career.

He’s going either way, and will probably get on the mound. And that will be a thrill for Sox fans as they wait for meaningful baseball again. But give him the full ride.

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target: The Ghost Bear

By Sam Fels 2145 0

We continue our look around what the Hawks might be able to pry loose via trade this summer, and our lonely eyes turn to The Iladelph. This one isn’t as clear as some others, where the Flyers aren’t actively shopping Shayne Gostisbehere. But they’re also listening, desperate for some forward help. That’s why they’ve traded for the rights to pay Kevin Hayes, who sucks, but it would be truly Flyers to get the jump on negotiations and fuck them up anyway.

So first off, would the Flyers actually part with Ghost Bear? Possibly. He’s been passed on the depth chart by Ivan Provorov, and it might soon be that Travis Sanheim does as well. They’ve been waiting for Robert Hagg and Samuel Morin forever, and there’s a couple other kids down in the system as well. It’s something of a strength to trade from for them.

And Ghost Bear has earned himself the title of a power play specialist. Your first reaction is to say that he’s just younger, more mobile Erik Gustafsson. Except that younger and more mobile is something we’ve wanted Gus to be for his entire stay here, so I’m not sure that’s anything worth complaining about.

But yes, Gostisbehere has racked up the power play points in the past, with 33 two years ago, and 23 the year before that. That doesn’t mean he’s a total nincompoop at even-strength, with 23 points this year and 32 the year before that. Ghost Bear might always be haunted by his rookie year where he put up 17 goals in just 64 games. But he shot 11% that season, which is astronomical for a defenseman and really shouldn’t be expected again.

That said, Gostisbehere’s metrics at evens are pretty good, well above the team-rate in Corsi the past three seasons and above in expected goals the past two. The caveat here is that Ghost Bear is punted in the offensive zone to start his shifts most of the time, so he should probably carry a higher rate than the team.

The drawback to Ghost Bear is that he doesn’t help out the defensive game much. And while he’s brilliantly skilled and mobile, it’s unclear if he can consistently skate or pass his team out of trouble when in his own zone. He wasn’t asked to do it a whole lot in Philly. Again, perhaps paired with a really good defensive partner you’d have a nice dynamic, but right now the only player the Hawks have that qualifies as that is Connor Murphy. It’s a nice thought, but a Ghost Bear-Murphy pairing sounds like a really nice second pairing and doesn’t solve your top of the rotation problem.

Is he gettable? Probably. Rumors have the Canadiens hot on his ass and dangling Andrew Shaw and/or Paul Byron to get him. Certainly Brandon Saad would be more than that, though if that deal straight up makes you queasy I get it. The Flyers are desperate for any kind of second line help, and Saad would definitely qualify as that. Fuck, maybe you catch the Flyers being the Flyers and convince them that Anisimov is that, especially if they can’t sign Hayes. It’s a longshot, but dumber things have happened.

Does he help? That’s a harder case to make. Again, the Hawks are fiending for mobility on the back end like no one else. This would make Renton’s withdrawal look like a cold. But Ghost Bear might be more of what they have, somewhat wayward in his own zone. If he had proved to be a carry-the-mail type, you’d be in on this 100%. But he might just be like Gustafsson, where you’ve got to get him to the offensive zone another way before his real effectiveness is apparent.

Like we’ve said about just about everyone we’ve previewed, he’s better than almost everything else the Hawks have on the roster now. But is he such an improvement? He would make Gustafsson expendable and you probably can fetch more for Gus than you give up for Ghost Bear simply due to the contract. Ghost Bear is also 26, so he may have some improving to do but he’s also not so far away from his peak that you can picture him being significantly more than he is. Again, this feels like another half-measure.

Baseball

Is There Anything To Be Salvaged With Carlos Gonzalez?

By Sam Fels 1721 0

No.

 

 

…all right fine. We can try and dig a little deeper into this, but there isn’t much point. What I find curious is that on the day the Cubs unveiled Craig Kimbrel, Theo Epstein was asked about Gonzalez and Albert Almora Jr., who has lost playing time to the former’s arrival. Theo’s quote was basically that Gonzalez was here to be a bat off the bench, and Almora needed to play.

Gonzalez has started four of the past six games. If you want to know why Joe Maddon has not received a contract extension, here’s a piece of evidence for you.

Let me present some numbers:

.169/.242/.186  .429 OPS  9.1 BB% 31.8 K%

.258/.287/.536  .823 OPS  3.8 BB*  15.4 K%

The former is Gonzalez’s numbers in May, and the latter’s are Albert Almora’s. Now, Almora’s aren’t exactly breathtaking, but they come out to an above-average offensive player, just, who plays plus defense. Gonzalez’s numbers make doves cry, and his defense really isn’t any good anymore either.

It’s been three seasons since Gonzalez was an above-average offensive player, and that’s accounting for the Coors factor. His power zapped away in 2017 and hasn’t really ever come back, though the .467 slugging off the bench would be fine. You’d take it. We all understand that in searching for a left-handed bat simply to replace Ben Zobrist and maybe take PH ABs from Daniel Descalso and his other interpretation of sadness at the plate, the options you can have for free are limited. It’s a free roll of the dice.

But you’re still going to get snake-eyes. And it’s fine for now because Kyle Schwarber has carried the outfield, and Gonzalez has cobbled together a couple hits that has fooled everyone into thinking he can still hit, which he can’t. Unless his .211 average since joining up really makes something stir in your bowels.

So I’m trying to see what the Cubs think they might be able to mine here, and my hope is that Joe Maddon is only trying to get CarGo in a rhythm before he’s reduced to simply pinch-hitting and spot-start duty. The only thing I can fathom is that the Cubs think they can get CarGo to go the opposite way more, which he actually does well but doesn’t do often. CarGo has been a pull everything guy for most of his career, settling for somewhere between 20-25% of his contact going the opposite way. CarGo has consistently run an average over .400 on balls the other way, though that might have something to do with being shifted against a lot and there being a lot of open territory there. But that’s belied somewhat by most of his contact the opposite way is still in the air, where a shift wouldn’t do much about it.

That’s about as near as I can figure, and his homer the other night, certainly a Wrigley product given where it landed, is hopefully a sign that CarGo is willing to change his approach to salvage another year or two in the majors. Beats working at Sears, as we know.

Still, it’s awfully harsh on Almora. I’m not Almora’s hugest fan–he hits way too many grounders and is slow, but this May was his first plus-month in the majors since the first half of last year thanks to an injection of power. There were still way too many grounders, over half his contact was, and maybe the Cubs have already concluded he would crash back to Earth with that. Still, May saw Almora hit the ball harder than he ever has, and his .253 BABIP in the month suggests he had to fight through fortune to produce a plus-month instead of ride the wave as he did last year.

It wouldn’t be a big deal, and it probably isn’t anyway yet, if Jason Heyward were hitting. But he’s not. So Joe Maddon is essentially tossing another outfield spot away on a hunch that isn’t going to play out, whereas Almora still allows us to be curious about what could come next. To boot, CarGo’s defense just isn’t that good in right.

I get the impression this won’t be a problem come July 1st when everyone sees CarGo is toast, but you never know with Maddon. And by then Almora might have lost all his momentum. He’s at least the devil we don’t know completely yet instead of the corpse we do.