Everything you need for tonight’s soiree with the Ohio boys.
As the Blue Jackets pick through the half-drank bottles and empty plates of the party and simultaneously the ruins of the team of the last two years, the only one to ever bring a playoff series win to Ohio, they must figure out where they’re going and how they’re going to get there. Even with the departures of Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, and their deadline acquisitions, there does seem to be a foundation with which to start again.
There’s a solid top pairing, and that might even be underselling Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. Ryan Murray finally overcame the obstacle of his body being made of Tonka toys to emerge as a solid second-pairing option. Vlad Gavrikov has turned some heads in the opening of this season.
Goalie is obviously a problem, and forward isn’t far behind. While Cam Atkinson poured in 41 goals last year and has consistently provided around 30, he just turned 30-years-old and for a player who relies on speed, one has to wonder how much longer he can contribute top line numbers. Then again, he could be the much more chipmunk-faced Patrick Marleau. It’s clear Nick Foligno and Brandon Dubinsky are past it. Boone Jenner is somehow only 26 still but has proved to not be much more than a middle line pivot.
So a lot of where the Jackets are going to go, and how they’ll get there, is riding on Pierre-Luc Dubois. See if this sounds familiar, a big center with nifty hands taken third overall? That was Dubois back in 2016, though he came out of the runway-to-the-net that is the QMJHL instead of the we’re-still-cowboys WHL that Kirby Dach might emerge from this year. Dubois has had the bonus of centering Panarin and Atkinson his first two years, which resulted in a more than respectable 64 points at just 20-years-old last season.
But Panarin is gone now, so whatever aid or safety net he was providing Dubois went with him. Is he up to the challenge? On the scant evidence we have, he should be. Dubois’s attempts-share fell off a cliff away from Panarin in his first two seasons, from 56% with to 48% without. Luckily for the Jackets, Dubois’s xGF% didn’t suffer near the same drop, though a drop nonetheless, which means though they might not be in the right end as much without Pantera they’re still getting the better chances.
He still has Atkinson of course, and though it’s only six games the results are good so far. They’re in the positive in both attempts and expected goals, with Gustav Nyquist standing in for Panarin, and who’s made a career of being just north of representative. Long season to go, of course.
And it’s a big one for Dubois, because it’s after this one that his entry-level deal expires. The Jackets are well set-up to give him a big contract, as they have $18M in space as of now with only Dubois being the must-have among all their free agents. Yes, they’re going to have to find a goalie somewhere, but they’re just as likely (and probably better off) trying to find a young one of those that they don’t have to overpay to pretend to care about OSU football and emphasize the pronunciation of “the.”
Still, the Jackets might want to take a breath before they decide whether or not to hand the boat to Dubois. 64 points at 20 is a hell of a thing, but they’ll need to see this year that he can be a 80-90 point guy. GM Jarmo Kekkalainen didn’t think Ryan Johansen was that back in the day, and he got Seth Jones out of it. It’s that type of shrewdness that might be the way to land himself a goalie, though it doesn’t have to be Dubois to get him that.
Teams find it hard to get anywhere without a true #1 center. Dubois has this year and maybe a couple more to prove that he is that.
Brandon Dubinksy – Perhaps the leading example of a belcher/grunter/scowler that is held up as leadership and grit for a team when his actual usefulness disappeared somewhere during Obama’s second term. Certainly doesn’t hurt that he has a last name that’s a modern iteration of “Grabowksi,” which the Ditka-philes that make up a majority of NHL front offices cover themselves in vaseline for. Dubes has spent the last two seasons getting his team backed into its own zone while he points and yells at clouds. He’s currently pulling his patented move of being hurt.
Nick Foligno – See above, but with the captain’s “C.” Foligno also has the added bonus of being a former player’s kid, which in the NHL boots your overall rating at least 25%. He’s only ever scored more than 20 goals twice in his far too long career, and for that he’ll take him $5.5M this year and next before the Jackets extend him so he can be the Ohio version of Mikko Koivu.
John Tortorella – This guy won a Cup, folks. While we’ll always stan for a guy who loves and rescues dogs as much as Torts does, you can bet one of the reasons both Bobrovsky and Panarin wanted to beat it out of town as quickly as possible was to get away from this guy. But this is the NHL, where a coach like this can pants an actual forward-thinking coach like Jon Cooper (not that Cooper ever needs much of an excuse to toss his pants aside). Clock must be ticking on this guy as the Jackets head into another rebuild after the monumental accomplishment of winning one playoff series.
Notes: Merzlikins is as close as we’ll ever get to having a player named “Fu-Schnickens” in this league or any other. Anyway, from the looks of it he’ll make his second career start and the first one was a disaster, as the Penguins pumped seven by him. Though giving up 40 shots for your rookie goaltender making his first start on the continent is probably not the smartest idea…the Jackets have the same PK problems as the Hawks, currently only killing off 70% of their penalties…Alex Texier is the analytic darling here, rocking plus-60% metrics when on the ice…
Notes: Lehner gets the start tonight, and with the schedule ramping up for the rest of the month you can probably expect him and Crawford to straight split starts for while…no changes otherwise, as there shouldn’t be…if the Kampf line did that to McDavid, they should simply run over Dubois and Atkinson. But Atkinson has a habit of scoring against the Hawks, and the Jackets are much deeper than the Oilers…Still, rookie goalie that just gave up seven, KILL….
Bears Offense vs. Saints Defense
Saints Offense vs. Bears Defense
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WITNESS ME BLOODBAG!
2019 Stats
155 games, 610 plate appearances
.250/.339/.531
38 HR 82 RBI
11.5 BB% 25.6 K%
120 wRC+ .357 wOBA .871 OPS
-7.1 Defensive Runs Saved 2.4 WAR
Tell Me A Story: There probably isn’t a better lesson in development not being linear than Kyle Schwarber. It was a given after his Doomsday 2nd half in 2015 that Schwarber would be taking aim and eventually bringing down the scoreboard in right field. But it didn’t work that way, as The War Bear got hurt, then spent ’17 and ’18 going through the growing pains he was supposed to go through in 2016. There was the cursed leadoff spot (which I will still contend he was good at and could be again if the Cubs really needed him to be). It got to the point where some fans and media had given up on him. And hell, it even took until the second half of this season for people to be convinced that Schwarber was going to be anything like we thought he would.
Overall, Schwarber’s season is really good. If you were to focus on just the second half, where he slashed .280/.366/.631 for a wRC+ of an astronomic 151 (for comparison, a season-long 151 would have ranked 7th in all of baseball right behind Anthony Rendon), then it’s really ya-ha time. The question for Schwarber and the Cubs and all of us is whether or not Schwarber is that guy from just the second half. Of course, most teams would settle for the whole of ’19 from their left fielder. Perspective is king, people.
There isn’t too much to suggest it simply can’t be. His BABIP in the second half was .287, which is high for Schwarbs simply due to the shifts he sees but hardly out of line by league-average standards. His hard-contact rate was above 40% in both halves of the season, which would suggest he was a touch unlucky in the first more than lucky in the second (though somewhat boosted by the 54% hard-contact rate he had in September). And nothing really changed about his approach, as the direction of his hits and contact remained pretty steady from first half to second half. And on a team that had trouble hitting the ball hard, Schwarber ranked 9th in all of MLB in average exit velocity. You wouldn’t get that long of odds on him repeating the second half for a full season, let’s say.
If there’s a problem area for Schwarber, it had been breaking balls. And overall, his numbers on sliders and curves this year aren’t impressive. But at the end of the year, in September, he blistered them for a .308 average and a .373 wOBA. Now maybe that’s just a one month spike, or maybe it’s an adjustment to how pitchers adjusted after getting weary of seeing their fastballs and sinkers turned into confetti somewhere over the right field wall. We’ll need more than a month to know, but it’s at least an encouraging start.
Could it actually get better? Maybe? The thing is Kyle’s walk-rate was the lowest of his career, at a still more than decent 11.8%. It was over 15% the year before, and over 13% in his rookie year. There are more walks in there. Some of that is Kyle being a little more willing to go get things a little outside because he can still do things with those pitches, But if he’d had ’18’s walk-rate this year he would have had 23 more walks, which would have boosted his OBP from .339 to .375. There is more in there in that sense. That would see his OPS crack .900 for the year, which is where we all picture The War Bear to be.
The concern with Schwarber, as it is with pretty much everyone now, is the lack of contact. Both his in-zone and overall contact rates were below league-average, and we know the Cubs would like to boost this where they can. I would think Schwarber’s overall production, especially in the second half, would outweigh that, but what do I know? And on breaking pitches, Schwarbs still has some swing-and-miss problems. That’s going to have to be the next step.
The other knock on Schwarber was his historic and mystifying incompetence in high-leverage situations last year. Well that certainly improved this year from -62 (my brain bleeds just seeing that number) to 92 in wRC+. Of course, even in his great second half, that number was just 81 in those spots. Perhaps that’s because pitchers, at least the ones able to execute a plan, know where to go with Schwarbs when they have to get him out. This is clearly the thing he’s going to have to correct come next year.
The funny thing with Schwarber is that even with his improved offensive numbers, he had a lesser WAR than ’18. That’s because his defense didn’t grade out as highly. And that’s because he didn’t really get the chance to throw out runners this year, as the book is out on his arm. Much like Willson Contreras, he contributed to his own sliding metrics on defense because of how good he was at one thing that he negated more chances to do that one thing. We know he’s not a great left fielder. Probably not even a good one. We also know a team doesn’t need to be great in left.
Contract: 2nd of three arbitration years, projected at $8M.
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There are whispers about trading Schwarber to the AL every goddamn year. I’m sure this won’t be different. And it’s not that he’s untouchable. For a top of the rotation starter, you’d have to think long and hard about it. But that’s about it, at least to me. We got a half season of the hitter he can be, and was in 2015. So this isn’t like it came from nowhere. He’s an adjustment or two from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. And even with the arbitration more thandoubling his salary, he’s cheap and young. True, for the first time since 2015, he’ll actually have some real value. But other teams would be wary of a backslide. And if you move Schwarber you have to replace that production in left. There really isn’t an in-house candidate, other than Ian Happ who is a lot farther from being that hitter than Schwarber is. To do it from the outside would be expensive, even if it’s everyone’s darling Castellanos. And if the budget is selfishly and callously limited again, then what room there is has to find pitching first.
As with everything, it depends on return. But the chance the Cubs regret moving Schwarber along rather than enjoy what they got back seems a lot bigger than the reverse.
Folks, I’m gonna be honest with you. I fear the end of the World Series. And I fear it because the day after and every single day after that I’m going to wake up thinking, “Today is the day the Cubs are going to do something truly stupid.” And really, what I’m thinking of, at the top of the list at least, is that they’ll trade Kris Bryant. It would be just about the biggest mistake the Cubs could make, save Mookie Betts coming the other way and being signed long-term. Which won’t happen. You do a rebuild, and flog whatever you can for prospects and picks hoping that just one of those picks or prospects will turn into a Kris Bryant. You don’t keep doing that cycle. They don’t come around that often. You can’t just find another one because you want to. They are unicorns, which is possibly why Bryant sparkles in the way he does.
Was Bryant’s year the best? No. For the second year in a row he dealt with nagging injuries which hampered his production. Once again, he was forced to play through it because the rest of the team was too helpless to pull away or then even compete in the division. And the Cubs medical staff working its magic again. Is this the new normal? I doubt it, but I guess you can’t eliminate it. Anyway, let’s run it through.
2019 Stats
147 games 634 PA
.282/.382/.521
31 HR 77 RBI
11.7 BB% 22.9K%
135 wRC+ .379 wOBA .903 OPS
-4.1 Defensive Runs Saved 4.8 WAR
Tell Me A Story: Well, first of all, 2019 was a huge improvement on 2018. Slugging up 60 points, wOBA up 20 points, 18 more homers. Also played 45 more games. But also for the second straight season, Bryant’s season did not measure up to his first three years in the league where he was Galactus, Eater Of Worlds. How much his knee problem played into that, we just don’t know for sure. But we can guess.
April was a bit rough for Bryant. He only hit .230, but had a high walk-rate and one of his lower K-rates. He was also undone by some fiendish BABIP kung-fu treachery, with a .263 mark. That would be by far the lowest mark of any month in the season. And that explains most of it, as Bryant was carrying a hard-contact rate of just about 40% in the season’s opening, and a line-drive rate over 20%. He was just unlucky.
We know that, because everything corrected over the next three months. In May, June, and July, Bryant ran wRC+ numbers of 193, 140, and 132, the kind of dominance and destruction you know and love from #17. He slugged .719, .480, and .547. This is what it’s supposed to look like.
And then it goes to shit in August, right about the time Bryant hurt his knee. A 95 wRC+. His walks basically disappeared to a 8.5% mark. His hard-contact rate dropped to 25%, and his line-drive rate was simply a sad and lonely (Secret Machines rule!) 12.7%. And yet he played through it. He shouldn’t have, but he did.
Now his September numbers look like they rebounded. But there’s a caveat there. His numbers in September are buffeted by simply going Donkey Kong on PCP and no one took the mallet away on the Pirates in that three-game series where it looked like things might actually come correct. He went 7-for-14, with three homers. After that, he had three hits against the Reds and Cardinals and then his season was over. The knee was still a problem.
There’s a lot of teeth-gnashing about Bryant’s contact numbers, because the team as a whole didn’t make enough contact. But the thing is that Bryant made the same exact amount of contact this year that he did in his MVP year. Had he not gotten hurt in August, and carried out his middle three months the final two, and ended up with 6.0 WAR or so, no one would give a shit about Bryant’s contact rates.
When looking at how Bryant did against certain pitches, most everything in 2019 is in line with what he did in his career before. There’s been basically no change except for health. So unless the Cubs know or heavily suspect that his body is never going to be quite right, he’s going to be an MVP candidate again very soon as long as something doesn’t go TWANG!
If there’s one area of concern other than his health, it’s his defense. It was negative again, though not as bad as the previous season. Still, Bryant was a plus 3rd basemen in his first three years, and one wonders if health was a part of his not being so again. There is a worry about a 6-5 dude playing third long-term. But Bryant isn’t much better in the outfield either, even though his athleticism keeps him from being anything like a disaster out there. Again, we won’t have an answer on this until he completes another full season healthy.
Contract: 3rd arbitration year of four, projected at $18.5M
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Welcome back forever. Go to Scott Boras and hand Bryant $30-$35M a year until he’s 35 and don’t ask any questions. The idea that the Cubs “can’t” re-sign Bryant is simply ludicrous. Just hand him the most money, which he deserves. There are maybe four players you’d trade him for? Betts is one. Trout’s another. They’re not coming. Neither is Jose Altuve. I can’t stress this enough. Since he came into the league, the only more valuable players than Bryant–even with the injuries–are Trout and Betts. That’s it. You don’t let these players leave unless you’re insane or insanely greedy or both (and the Ricketts family is very likely both of those). He should be here until he retires, and then his jersey should immediately go up the left field foul pole. No waiting around. You simply don’t cut these guys adrift.
There is no way, none, where this team gets better without Bryant. At least not one that’s even a possibility. I’m fairly sure Theo knows this, but the question is can he sell that to the owners? That’s the only obstacle. Hold me to this, but if Bryant is ever allowed to leave, it’ll be at least twice as bad as when Greg Maddux was. I’ll wear it, and so will the rest of us if it happens.
Ah, finally we get to have some fun like the Sox guys are. Other than Anthony Rizzo, the players we’ve looked at so far either had iffy or debatable seasons and/or might end up trade bait. Or they’re just irretrievable assholes. But Javier Baez is pure energy. He’s The Drej, but in a good way.
Where the fuck did I dig that reference up? Like maybe four of you saw “Titan A.E.” Whatever. Let’s move along.
2019 Stats
138 games 561 PA
.281/.318/.531
29 HR 89 RBI
5.0 BB% 27.8 K%
114 wRC+ .347 wOBA .847 OPS
15.7 Defensive Runs Saved 4.4 WAR
Tell Me A Story: It might be hard to separate the decline, however small, of Baez’s ’19 from his ’18 from the pure exhaustion he assuredly felt. And that almost certainly would have had to contribute to his injury problems which basically had him out all of September. Sure, you don’t fracture your thumb because you’re tired as Baez did, but the dip from the first half to the second half was clear and his heel problem was at least partially due to overuse.
In the season’s first two months, Baez didn’t really drop from his MVP-consideration form of last year, putting up a 138 wRC+ in April and a 124 in May. But something went off the boil in June, and Baez didn’t really ever get back to the heights of the season’s first third. Part of it was that Baez simply stopped walking, which he had been doing within at least emailing distance of league average in the first two months. Now we know with Baez the walks are the outlier and the 2.0% rates of June and July are probably closer to what he is. But he doesn’t have to be.
Luck was also a part of it, as in June Baez only had a BABIP of .257 which is some 80 points off his career mark and season mark. That recovered in July and August, and Baez still slugged over .500 in those months, but it wasn’t as dominant as it had been before. Mostly because Baez just wasn’t getting on base as much, though when he was it almost always was for extra bases, and even those handful of walks he eschewed were making a difference. Baez isn’t ever going to be Adam Dunn or Anthony Rendon and he doesn’t have to be. But a walk-rate of 5-6% makes a huge difference to his overall OBP and offense, and that isn’t beyond him.
There was also a big difference in contact for Baez after the season’s first two months. Whereas in April and May he was hitting the ball as hard as just about anyone (43.4% and 51.6% hard-contact rates), he never got over 40% in the final three months he played. Part of this could have been playing every day slowing the bat a touch, part of it could have been the heel, part of it something else. 2018 saw him with a 22% line-drive rate, and we know what Baez should look like when on song. He had some pretty sad line-drive numbers in both June and August.
We know something must be wrong physically, because Baez’s average exit-velocity on fastballs went from 94.5 MPH in July to 85 MPH in August. That just shouldn’t happen. And it’s not like he was seeing more or less of them when August hit.
One thing pitchers did do was move their fastballs from high and tight to the outside, which would seem weird given that Baez has huge power the opposite way:
But Baez never really adjusted, sending less than 20% of his contact the other way which rocketed his ground-ball rate to 59% in August, by far his highest monthly mark of the year. This should never happen to Javy given the damage he can do to right field, but he gets pull-happy at times. In the season’s first two months, when over a third of his contact went to right field, you’ve seen the numbers. This is something Javy needs to lock in.
Contract: 2nd arbitration year, projected for $9.3M in 2020
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Welcome him back and never let him go. The Cubs have made noises about at least talking about an extension with Baez this winter, and he seems to be the only lock of the team’s core that will never see another uniform. There are trade whispers about Bryant and Contreras, Rizzo will be in his 30s when his contract is up, and Schwarber also will hear the trade winds blow. But the Cubs wouldn’t dare do that with Baez, though they should probably feel the same way about Bryant. Another talk coming soon. What that number would be to get Baez to sign is open to question, but you’d have to guess it starts somewhere around $22M a year. Baez and close friend Francisco Lindor probably will have some interesting conversations about this. Hopefully they’re about both playing in Wrigley together one day.
What will be interesting is how Baez meshes with a new manager. Joe Maddon saw exactly what Baez could be and never really meddled, knowing it would be a bumpy road at times until this was unveiled. A lot of other managers might have tried to shackle or smooth out Baez’s game, which would have been a waste. He’s now at least close to the finished project, so the new manager doesn’t have many decisions to make. But could he resist? Can a new manager keep Baez at least aware of going the other way at the plate, which makes him basically a doomsday device?
The other thing is getting him backup. He can’t play 155 games next year or something stupid like that, even if he wants to. Nico Hoerner being able to stick early in the season solves this, but that’s no guarantee. Giving Bote a spot-start or two there is a solution that Maddon never wanted to try. If Russell’s evil and dumb ass is catapulted into the nearest tire fire, the Cubs might have to find a cheap solution outside the organization. If they don’t, we’ll know how much they think of Hoerner already.
Either way, Engine #9 is most likely going to be thrilling you for a very long time. Keep him fresh and healthy to make sure that happens.
Previous Cubs Player Reviews
Normally, I make a pretty awkward, and sometimes even grotesque, face when a player is moved from center to wing or vice versa. Perhaps it’s the PQSD (Post Quenneville Stress Disorder) and the memories of Patrick Kane or Andrew Shaw at center and the counter of Patrick Sharp or Teuvo Teravainen not. When you’ve been around this long, the ghosts and memories are never far from the surface due to sheer volume.
To draw any conclusions about the Hawks lineup after four games, or Kirby Dach’s ascension after just two in the AHL, is obviously silly. There could be injuries or drastic changes to how players are playing, and that’s just in the next 10 games, much less over the next couple months. But hey, the obviously silly is what we specialize in.
Still, what’s obvious is the Hawks want to give Dach a run out at the top level, and they would actually prefer it if he proved to deserve to stick. Hence, it would behoove them to give him the best chance to succeed in however many games it’s going to take to prove that he belongs or he doesn’t. Obviously, skating him on the fourth line between say Ryan Carpenter and Zack Smith really isn’t going to do much for anyone. Then again, this is the Hawks and that’s exactly what might happen so they can turn their palms out and say, “Well, it’s clear he’s just not ready to be in the NHL with a couple of fourth-line stiffs that don’t suit his game in the least.”
The problem is where to fit him in the top nine isn’t so obvious.
Most of that is due to the opening play of the Brandon Saad-David Kampf-Domink Kubalik line. Again, four games, but from opening returns the Hawks might have their own version of the 3M Line in Calgary. A hybrid checking line that can also dominate possession and generate offense from a spot you wouldn’t normally count on it. It would take some convincing to break that line up in the next few games, when Dach’s conditioning stint would be over.
There is an argument for sticking Dach between Saad and Kubalik. Both those wingers are defensively responsible and fast. Both can be one-man breakouts to help get Dach out of the zone. Both have offensive instincts to get to the open spots and open up space for Dach (at least Kubalik has flashed that). Saad’s habit of holding onto the puck for long stretches might not mesh well with Dach. But Dach might also be better off the puck than advertised, at least offensively.
The issue there is that you could no longer use that line as a checking line. You want Kampf doing that, and while I wouldn’t give up on the idea that Kampf with Carpenter and Caggiula/Perlini/Smith could perform much of the same defensive duties from the fourth line as the third line is now. You just wouldn’t get any offense. And maybe you don’t need it.
But say Jeremy Colliton doesn’t want to break up his third line just yet, as they’re quickly turning into something of a binky. Fair enough. Except there’s not really another center spot to put Dach. You’re not moving Strome or Toews to a wing, though at times last year the former was so. We’re beyond that now.
I’ve floated the idea, one that Colliton almost assuredly does not have the stones to try, that Toews could slot down between Saad and Kubalik, and attempt to replicate what that line is doing with Kampf in the middle. Whether Toews is up for the checking duties at this point in his career is a debate we’ve been having for a couple years. And even if he is, can he still provide some scoring juice? Might be worth a look, but we have no idea.
That would leave Dach open to play with Kane or DeBrincat or both, or one of them to slot down with Strome and then make up the other winger through some combo of Shaw and Cagiulla and maybe Nylander or Perlini or whatever else you want to throw to the wall. It would also give you two lines you can start in the defensive zone to give you the flexibility to have two lines who need some hammock shifts, which Dach is almost certainly going to need. But again, I don’t think Colliton has the tires to tell Toews he’s on a third line and if he does I definitely want video of that conversation.
So if that’s not a possibility, what’s left? It would seem an apprenticeship on the wing is all there is. Dach didn’t play wing in junior, so you might actually be stunting his growth by asking him to do it. If he does have it in his locker, then he can be something of a playmaker on a line with Toews and whoever else that it lacks when Toews isn’t playing with Kane. Or he can finish off whatever Daydream Nation create. Or both. It’s not a perfect fit, but it might be the only option.
I have a feeling the Hawks might try all of these for a period over five games with Dach, without ever settling on one. What we can be sure is that the Icehogs have a double-date with the Wolves this weekend, and you can be sure almost all the brass will be in attendance for both to see where Dach is (wouldn’t hurt for Boqvist to light it up either).
The Hawks have a mismatched roster at forward at the moment, and Dach’s presence might not clear it up. It would take some imagination, but it feels like the answer is there.
