Everything you need for this afternoon’s NFC North dance…
Everything you need for tonight’s tilt on The Confluence.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 5-7-3 Penguins 9-6-1
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago, NHL Network
WIGLE IS A DAMN FINE WHISKEY: Pensburgh
Something of an old home week for the Hawks. It started with the Kings, whom they once sat upon the top of the West with for years. Then it was the Canucks, with whom they shared the league’s fiercest rivalry, but long enough ago that you have to start to squint to keep seeing it. And now it’s the Penguins, their Eastern counterpoint, a team they were always compared to, and one that’s outlasted them in NHL relevance. They will always be connected as long as Toews and Crosby are around, the two pillars of two Canadian gold medal teams. But that’s about where they stop sharing similarities now.
As is always the case with the Pens, they’ve steered their ship successfully through injuries, and injuries to just about the same guys as always. Geno Malkin has only played five games but recently returned. Kris Letang and Patric Hornqvist are out at the moment, as is their way. They’ve had up and down performances from Matt Murray. But there they sit, comfortably in a playoff spot in the Metro Division. It was ever thus.
As you might expect, Engine #87 is leading the way, as he and Jake Guentzel (who simply must give half his paycheck to Crosby) are leading the Pens in scoring and doing most of the work. They’ve been able to create more depth than they had last year with the additions of Domink Kahun (a tear rolls down our cheek) and Jaren McCann last year without having to give up anything of note. McCann has flourished since arriving, with 17 points last year in 32 games and nine this year in 12 outings. This is his third stop in the league, so perhaps he heard the footsteps of oblivion calling and kicked his ass into gear. Or he just found a team that plays a way he can adapt to.
In fact, the results might have betrayed the Pens a little. They’re the second-best team in the league in Corsi and xG%. They’re top-ten in both goals for and goals-against per game in the league. Only their goaltending has been a little suspect at even-strength, but hardly terrible at .920. They just halted the Islanders March To The Sea, so don’t be shocked if their record picks up in a hurry and aggressively. They’re doing just about everything right, and might just be victims of some weird sequencing.
If there’s one aspect they need to get going it’s their power play that’s worse than the Hawks’ at the moment. Geno’s return will certainly help, and they won’t shoot just 8% on it forever (for comparison’s sake, the Caps are shooting at 20% on the man-advantage at the moment).
There’s a clear delineation on how the Penguins deploy everyone, as Malkin and Crosby pretty much are restricted to starting in the offensive zone and the third and fourth lines in the other. Their fourth-line has been a true weapon so far this year, with the trio of Aston-Reese – Teddy Blueger (I almost forgot my beautiful babies!) – Brandon Tanev being used almost exclusively in the defensive zone and consistently turning over their opposition. Their success has lessened the pressure on Crosby to do everything every night, which he’s taking to as well. Must be nice.
To the Hawks, and there are more changes than you would have guessed coming off their most complete game of the year. The two kids, i.e. the only two reasons you’re watching, are both going to watch this one. It’s an odd call to scratch them both at the same time, but the occasional night off for two teenagers negotiating an NHL season for the first time isn’t a complete crime. Still, it makes the bottom six way less interesting, and pairs Gustafsson with Keith likely, and that’s been an utter disaster every time it’s been tried. Maybe de Haan slides up with Maatta rejoining Seabrook…except that hasn’t worked either. There are no complete answers.
It’ll be a return home for Olli Mattaa, and he’ll be greeted with the Pens gleefully trying to attack him at every turn. Pittsburgh kind of started the whole get-it-the-fuck-up style of hockey that got them to two Cups in a row, and it’s still a style the Hawks have yet to prove they can handle. Look for the Pens to do no messing about in their own zone, and trying to spring their forwards onto the Hawks defense as early as possible every chance.
The strange thing is as fast as the Penguins have played the past few years and how much more skilled they’ve been than the Hawks recently, they haven’t beaten the Hawks in six seasons. The Hawks have won 11 straight in this matchup, which goes all the way back that Eddie O suggested the Hawks replace Corey Crawford as starter on air and Fifth Feather had a brain bubble about it.
Wednesday was probably the Hawks most complete game of the year. The Canucks did their part, but everything pretty much worked. Whether it was a one-off or an actual turning point, we’ll find out this weekend.
Let’s get it out at the top, we don’t miss Eddie Olczyk’s insistence on calling Dominik Kahun “The Big Kahun-a.” Somehow, no one ever bothered to explain to Eddie, or he just never bothered to listen, that “The Big Kahun” would suffice easily. We’ll get the joke. Really, we will. It made it sound like he had indigestion every time he said the goddamn name. Fuckin’ eh hockey people have the worst sense of humor.
Anyway, the Hawks fortunes probably don’t hinge on whether Dominik Kahun is here or not. But if you consider the kind of game the NHL is these days, and the one the Hawks are trying to play in it, what makes more sense? Having a quick, smart forward who is interested and effective in both ends of the ice? Or cashing him in for a slow, not all-all-that-skilled d-man and then having to plug up the forward spot you just vacated with a dumber, slower, less interested and far more expensive player? Not to mention older? You see where this goes.
We know the Hawks figured that with the arrival of Domink Kubalik, that the other Dominik was expendable. Maybe even more so if they had an inkling they could pry Alex Nylander loose. And yet wouldn’t you be happier with Kahun taking Shaw’s shifts right now? He’s certainly more flexible, and less prone to ride on his reputation with the locals to loaf around the offensive zone until it’s time to take an idiotic and lazy penalty.
And conceding that the Hawks knew they’d end up with Nylander would concede that they also had any sort of plan, which is clear they didn’t. If the front office was committed to building a team that can play the way Jeremy Colliton wants to play, and that’s assuming the front office has any idea what their coach is doing, you’d want quicker and more dynamic d-men than you had. Ones that can win the races and play the high-pressure way and not lose their man simply because they can’t keep up or get back to where they need to be quick enough. You wouldn’t go out and get a plodder, much less two of them.
But that’s what the Hawks did. Which smacks of acquiring Maatta simply because he was available without ever considering if he truly fit. Same thing with Calvin de Haan, though they didn’t give up anything of value to do that. Worse yet, both are signed for multiple years, which strangles any flexibility. How do they plan on getting Ian Mitchell and Nicholas Beaudin and even Chad Krys on this roster in the next two seasons?
So where would the Hawks be better off? The $7M they’d have saved by just keeping Kahun, never bothering with Maatta or Shaw? Or this? You tell us which path actually speaks to having a plan and which speaks to throwing shit at a wall? And sure, Kahun will be due a raise after this season, but do you really think he’ll get anywhere close to the $3.9M that Shaw is getting? No, you don’t, because you haven’t been hit by a crowbar recently.
As we figured, Kahun has taken to the Penguins’ system like a dog to peanut butter, simply crushing the competition to the tune of a 57% Corsi and a 62% expected-goals share. He’s been used in the offensive end more often than the Hawks did, to be fair. He’s mostly skated with Jared McCann in The Confluence, and now with Evgeni Malkin back will probably slot into a third-line role which he was built for.
We still find it hard to believe that Jim Rutherford knows what he’s doing. But as GM of one of the three modern forces of the league this decade, he seems to be the only one getting it right. And by some distance. Fleecing the Hawks for Kahun is how you do that.
Jack Johnson – All the normal antagonists are hurt these days for the Pens, so will go with this moon-faced tomato can. Not that he’s a particularly ornery or annoying player, he just sucks. We’ve seen players suck before, but the’s the suckiest suck that ever sucked. And he’s also definitely going to be a Hawk in the near future, because if there’s one thing they love it’s a big, slow, dumb defenseman. Hey Jack, where’s all your money gone?
Sidney Crosby – He doesn’t get enough John Stockton comparisons, but maybe that’s because John Stockton never bitched as much as Crosby does per game. When you’ve been the game’s best player for a decade, that happens of course (hey, LeBron wants his calls too). But Crosby is also sneaky dirty and not-s0-sneaky strong. Watch him closely down low, and you’ll see some dark arts…followed by some whining. They go hand in hand.
Nick Bjugstad – Only because we spent about five years thinking this guy was going to be a premier power forward in the league, after watching him at Minnesota during the lockout because we had nothing else to do. And it’s never happened, it’s probably not going to happen, and when you’re a big player that Dale Tallon gives up on, you know you’ve fucked it.
Hawks
Notes: Interesting calls today, as both Boqvist and Dach will sit. At first it seems like something we should get volcanic over, but then again it’s two teenagers who would struggle to get all 82 games anyway. They’re the only reasons to watch of course, and doing it at the same time is a little weird, but it’s probably not worth wetting one’s shorts over…Kampf and Carpenter have dovetailed as we suspected they might. Now if they can just be slotted into a fourth/checking line role to get Dach better linemates, we’ll really have something…Big one for Maatta as he returns to Pittsburgh…Strome and Kane each had three points but at even-strength this line still gets absolutely murdered. It’s not a long-term solution…Crawford gets to double up on his efforts Thursday with Lehner ready for another firing squad tomorrow against Toronna.
Penguins
Notes: Geno just returned this week after being hurt in the second game of the season. He has three points in three games since…McCann has four points in his last four games…Tanev has been a possession monster, but he was that in Winnipeg too so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise. That fourth line has really opened up things for the Pens, given how well they’ve done with the dungeon starts they’re getting…Marino has been something of a surprise filling in for Letang…Jack Johnson? Useful? Can’t be…
Quite simply, this was the reliever the Cubs should have gotten at the deadline instead of dead-ass and dude-on-the-couch lookin’ motherfucker Derek Holland. The Brewers did, and watched Pomeranz become a monster out of the pen. Which is what the Cubs need. How much of a difference would Pomeranz have made? Probably not enough, but one you’d notice. Probably wouldn’t have given up that grand slam to Bryce, all I’m sayin’.
Let’s get to it.
Why A Spoon, Sire?: Because as stated above, Pomeranz was absolutely nails once the Brewers turned him into a reliever for the season’s last two months. Pomeranz ran a 47% K-rate to go with a 7.6% BB-rate, good enough for nearly a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio. His ERA was 1.88 out of the pen, with a FIP of 1.92. He gave up 16 hits in 28 innings, and a slugging against of .278. And that was against hitters from both sides of the plate, as he struck out 45% of the righties he saw too.
Coming out of the pen, it was natural that Pomeranz’s already plus-fastball would see a boost because he was only facing three-to-six batters or so. And it did, jumping up to 95.1 MPH average in August and 96.4 MPH in September. You got a lot of lefties throwing 95 MPH around? No, you fucking don’t. They’re pretty rare.
Pomeranz only used two pitches out of the pen, with the other being his curve. That also saw a jump of three MPH as well when he started coming out of the pen exclusively, which can either be good or bad but is enough off of his fastball that’s it’s effective. Pomeranz was also able to almost double the amount of sweep it had across the zone out of the pen, which is a big reason why he was getting nearly a 50% whiff-rate per swing on it in September. Pomeranz’s curve and inclination to throw his fastball high in the zone mean they come out of the same “tunnel,” which is what everyone is looking for these days.
Last year wasn’t the first time he’s come out of the pen, doing so in Oakland and Boston as well before landing in San Francisco. His numbers have always jumped the right way as a reliever, so this is what he is.
Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): It’s hard to find too much wrong with Pomeranz, other than last year’s sample size, I guess, and any urge he might have to start again. You could certainly tell him he’d have a “chance” to spot start for the Cubs, and hell you might even mean it, but he’d have to be behind Chatwood and Alzolay on the depth chart.
Pomeranz is only 30, and only made 46 appearances total with starts included, so it’s not like a Cishek situation where he’s going to show up and have his arm turn into putty in August. At least you wouldn’t think. Pomeranz has had his injury issues though, but they were mostly in his days in Oakland and he’s bounced between pen and rotation unscathed the past couple years. Having a clear relief role probably can only help his durability.
Little Silver? Little Gold?: Well, it might not be cheap. Pomeranz might actually end up the most prized reliever on the market given his performance in Milwaukee, up there with Will Smith and Will Harris and whatever other Will might be out there. MLBTR has him pegged at getting a two-year deal for $16M. The Cubs might be cautious throwing that much money again at only a recently-turned reliever after getting burned by Brandon Morrow. But Pomeranz doesn’t have the disastrous injury history that Morrow did, isn’t coming off throwing every game in the World Series, and quite frankly is a better bet. MLBTR has the Cubs going after Will Harris for about the same price, but fuck that. If you’re going to do that, Pomeranz is 30 and not 35 like Harris is. Harris also added an extra month of work on his frame this season. Harris also is more of a weak-contact guy, and the Cubs need more fire and brimstone out of their pen which they didn’t have last year. Adding Pomeranz would provide you that, along with the Wick Brothers, Chatwood and his upped velocity out of the pen, maybe Alzolay, maybe Duane Underwood (or by some prayer Dillon Maples ever figures it out because I’ll never let go). That’s even before you get to whatever Kimbrel is going to be. That’s a lot of angry coming out of the pen, and I want all the angry out of the pen I can get.
vs. 
RECORDS: Lions 3-4-1 Bears 3-5
Kickoff: 12pm
TV: CBS 2
THAT DORK LOOKS LIKE JAM: Pride Of Detroit
Do you get the impression the Bears would rather play on the road these days? A home date with the Lions should be a joyous occasion, and it usually has been in the past, but considering the air around the Bears and the suddenness with which Soldier Field can turn toxic, you really feel like the Bears had better score on their first drive or it’s going to bet poisonous in a hurry. They might be booing at the pregame tailgate. Mitch Trubisky pointing at the TVs screaming, “DEATH!!!” isn’t going to help the cause much.
So the Bears will have to turn it around against what’s normally their favorite punching bag, and really everyone’s favorite punching bag. Luckily, the Lions contain some things that could really help the Bears if they’ve conditioned themselves during the week to change. Sadly, they also contain the Bears destruction within them as well.
First the good news. As my father would say, “The Lions defense stinkums.” They’re 27th in rush yards against per game, 31st in pass yards per game against, 27th in sacks, 27th in interceptions, and 27th in points against. So yeah, you’d think with the lack of pass rush and the lack of ballhawks and the lack of linebackers total, the Bears could actually find something they could do successfully against this outfit. Whether that’s lining up in the I more often and simply running the ball, or getting to play-action off of that, or rolling Mitch out where he’s clearly more comfortable, the Lions offer a fucking buffet of things you can get to them through. Then again, the Chargers were dressing their bus driver as a d-linemen and the Bears couldn’t crack that code until late. So no guarantees here.
The Lions defense has had various problems, including health in the secondary, but this chart is pretty telling (stick-tap to Jeremy Riesman at PoD for linking it):
Brain genius with birds living in his beard, and probable rapist, Matt Patricia hasn’t been able to get any pressure from his front four and they haven’t brought much heat either to try and make up for that. So maybe the Bears offensive line can hold up against this? And give Mitch time? Which won’t cause his eyes to drop to the rush? And maybe he can just pick-and-stick some guys in the open spaces? Am I asking too much? I probably am, aren’t I? More pissing in the wind, YAY!
Of course, it’s not that simple. On the flip side of the ball, Matt Stafford is playing at a ridiculous level, which Brian laid out here. I suppose the good news, if there is any on this front, is that he’s done his best work flinging the ball deep, which is something the Bears have given up next to nothing of this year. The plan against them has always been to get it out quick to avoid Khalil Mack ending your world, and the hope would be if Stafford and the Lions insist on taking their shots that Mack and Leonard Floyd (brief flickering signs of life last week) and others can get to Stafford to either bring him down or force errant throws. Then again, Stafford’s been so good at this he might be able to find the shots others haven’t. Then it could be trouble.
But hey, more good news. The Lions can’t run the ball for shit. Have they ever? This is just like the Lions condition, right? Like the Bears and quarterbacks? The Hawks and power plays? It’s just something they’ll never do. Anyway, Ty Johnson is averaging barely 3.5 yards per carry, and they don’t even go to him much as he’s gotten over 10 carries just once this season since he took over for Kerryon Johnson, who’s on IR with knee-knack. So whereas the Chargers and Eagles and Raiders and oh fuck let’s just stop it here pretty much ran it up the Bears giggy, that’s not something the Lions are built or even motivated to try.
The things is though, the Lions are a couple inches from being 5-2-1 or even better. The refs screwed them over in Green Bay. They had a last-second loss to the Chiefs. They probably should have beaten the Raiders last week. So they have just as much reason to look at the Bears and think they can get healthy against them as the Bears do looking the other way. Other than Mack, who will be heavily watched, Stafford is the best player on the field and is capable of winning this on his own given the right breeze.
Still, the Bears are basically built to not have a quarterback beat them. Yeah, sure, the defense hasn’t gotten the big stops they’ve needed the past two games, and even Denver drove right down the field against them in the 4th. But a lot of that was predicated on rushing attacks, which the Lions just don’t have. And does Stafford really have the patience to five- and six-yard outlet his way down the field? He might, but you have to feel there’ll be a shot or two that Eddie Jackson or Kyle Fuller can get their hands on.
So if they can keep Stafford from going power cosmic, you have to believe the Bears offense will find SOMETHING against this team. Maybe not 35 points something, but like 24? Detroit has given up 23 or more points in every game save one. The fucking Giants hung 31 on them. If Daniel Jones can go for 322 yards against this collection of lost souls, surely Mitch can have at least a decent game? Right? Right?!
This is it for the Bears, this next month. They get the Lions twice and the Giants, and a Sunday night in LA. Win those three and sneak some weird victory out of the Coliseum (where they come to see ’em), and the season isn’t lost. Hell, just take the three you’re supposed to and you’re 6-6 with at least something to hope for in December. But it has to start with one. If you can’t get this one, it’s pack up the cats time.
Bears Offense vs. Lions Defense
Lions Offense vs. Bears Defense
