Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Jon Gray

By Sam Fels 1323 0

We’ve been through a few pitchers the Cubs could just sign, some good some bad. We started this whole thing off with a trade target, and that was Thor, which will never happen. So let’s cycle back to another trade target, something of a baby Thor. And that’s Jon Gray.

Gray is probably on the trade market because he only has two more years of control, and the Rockies are loathe to spend money they don’t have to, even more than the Cubs. They’re not going to sign him when he’s a free agent, and there are some things about his performance that would give any team pause, so they can probably sell him at his highest now before he breaks again. Would he make sense for the Cubs? Yeah, he just might.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Gray was sneaky good last year, when you adjust for the fact that he basically pitches his home games on the moon. He finished the year with a 76 ERA- (100 is average, and counts down), which if he had enough innings would have been one of the best marks in the league. It was the second out of the last three that he was around 75, which he also did in 2017.

The strange this is this past season, Gray doesn’t have much of a home/road split. Hitters had a .261 average against him at home, and a .258 on the road. On-base and slugging are just about the same as well. His ERA at home was 3.46, and 4.22 on the road. He actually had a worse home-run rate on the road, which doesn’t make a ton of sense but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. And for his career, there really isn’t much difference between home and road for Gray. He’s basically the same pitcher.

Which is a pretty good one. Gray has struck out just a tick above a hitter per inning in all four of his full seasons in the Majors. If you go by percentage, he’s struck out a tick above league average as well. In three seasons, he’s maintained a 3-to-1 K/BB rate. This year, Gray bumped up the amount of grounders he gets to over 50%, which would play even better away from Coors as the altitude tends to turn their infield into a runway. Still, the Rockies had a great infield defense, which Gray would find here.

Ein minute bitte, vous einen kleined problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): There are flags with Gray, of course. One is health. Gray has never taken on a full slate of starts in a season, managing over 30 starts just once (and 29 on another occasion). He’s achy-breaky. He just turned 28, so he’s probably just always going to be the kind who misses 5-10 starts a year. Again, we’ve gone over this before, that the Cubs should be buffeted for that kind of thing with Chatwood and Alzolay around, but it’s not something you’d willingly choose if you didn’t have to.

Second, Gray only throws two pitches really. As we’ve seen with Chris Archer, the shelf-life for starters with only a fastball and a slider isn’t very long, and Gray could be coming to the end of his if he doesn’t add something. He does have a decent curveball, and if a team could draw that out of him more then you might really have something. It would just be a departure from his approach in his whole career. On the plus side, Gray’s fastball gained some velocity this past season, so it’s probably still some time before his fastball is a problem.

Third, Gray has given up a ton of hard contact, and especially this past season. Statcast has him at 43% hard-contact against, and FanGraphs at 39%. The StatCast mark is in the bottom 4% in the league, The average 89.8 MPH exit velocity isn’t pleasant to look at either, and that’s not altitude influenced. And he’s been trending that way for the past two seasons.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Gray would be moved for prospects, as the Rockies system blows, they don’t really want to add any payroll if they can help it. Gray has two years of arbitration left, and he’s projected to get $5.6M this year so you’d have to guess his last year of arbitration would be somewhere around $7M-$8M, unless he goes nuclear next year. His affordability will make him a harder trade, but them’s the breaks. The Cubs aren’t laced with prospects, and other teams might be in on Gray given his low salary and high ceiling and relatively established floor. It would probably take a couple B-Level ones to get this done. Very well might be worth it.

Hockey

Things Are Going Well, So Hawks Put Off The Hard Stuff

By Sam Fels 1917 0

I should state right at the top that I’m not much one for confrontation either, and have spent a lifetime running from my problems. So to say I understand where the Hawks are coming from would be putting it lightly.

The Hawks have taken seven of the last eight points. They just got their first win over Vegas. They seem to have found a balance with what their coach wants and what the players want. They’re scoring, the goalies are playing spectacularly. They’re back to .500 and there’s at least a glimmer of hope that they could springboard from here into at least making the season interesting. It’s easy to understand why the Hawks don’t really want to be rocking the boat right now.

With that in mind, they sent Adam Boqvist back to Rockford this morning. Which means Connor Murphy is ready to go on Saturday in Nashville, for another impressive 11 minutes before something else on him goes TWANG! All makes sense. But the hard conversation is coming for the front office, so they might as well have it now.

We talked about this on the podcast, but this week is another chance to have a sit-down with Brent Seabrook. Because the clock is ticking very loudly and the Hawks have run out of ways to avoid it now. No later then next summer they’re going to have to do this, and if they are in a playoff chase (which they aren’t yet) it’s probably coming sooner. So why not get ahead of it?

Have Stan and Colliton and McDonough meet with him in Nashville or wherever the next two days, and calmly explain that they can’t keep Boqvist in Rockford forever, and it’s about winning games and he helps us do that. Again, make it clear how much Seabrook has meant to the organization and his teammates and fans. You’ve already prepared the ground a little by his double-scratching, which they handled poorly (even if it was the right decision at the base of it). Tell him this is where he is, this is where the team is going, and if that works for him or not. Assure him you’ll try and accommodate him if it doesn’t, but he should also know that a trade is hardly a guarantee given the factors involved. Just keep him informed and feeling like he has some control of the situation.

We know what Seabrook’s voice means in the dressing room, and they don’t want to lose that. But the players also want to win and get back into the playoffs. Adam Boqvist helps that cause. He helps it more than Brent Seabrook does. And though they’ll never say it out loud, the players know that too.

Sure, you could duck out of it and start scratching Olli Maatta whenever Boqvist returns. If it was good enough for the Penguins and all that. Doesn’t seem like the way this is trending.

And as we’ve said, this is coming. Even if you say that Boqvist will take Gustafsson’s spot after Gus leaves in free agency or is traded, whither Ian Mitchell? Or Nicholad Beaudin or Chad Krys if they pop up into the frame? This is precisely why you don’t trade for vets with multiple years left on their deals when you’re trying to pivot to younger d-men, but this is the bind you’ve put yourself in.

You can only put it off for so long, and everyone would be healthier if you start dealing with it now. What if Boqvist spends the next two weeks or month simply lighting up the AHL while Seabrook continues to gasp for air? And if the power play goes stale? And the record never really gets far away from .500 in either direction?

There will only be one answer. Best to start preparing for it now.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Brock Holt

By Sam Fels 1246 0

Full disclosure, a signing of Brock Holt would allow me to open up the box marked “Mike Olt/Steve Holdt Jokes” that I never really got to use much when Olt prove to be an oaf. So I’m biased. Still, while it would hardly be the sexiest signing the Cubs could make, it would have some purpose. The Cubs might need help filling in second base while Nico Hoerner cooks some more in Triple-A. They could use a little more flexibility, depending on what happens with Ian Happ this winter, or Albert Almora, or really the whole goddamn thing. And they can probably use some relatively affordable help. Holt checks all the boxes.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well one, Holt plays everywhere. He played second mostly for the Red Sox, but in the past has played short, third, some first, and even some spots in the outfield. He hasn’t flexed around the diamond of late, but it’s probably still in the holster if you need it.

Second, Holt murdered right-handed pitching this past season. If you focus only on his work against them, he slashed .318/.394/.438, good for a 119 wRC+. It’s best if you don’t look at his work against left-handed pitching, but the Cubs really should be covered for that with David Bote lying around and possibly Happ switch-hitting as well. He also had a near 40% hard-contact rate against them.

And that might be a one-season trend. In 2018 Holt hit both sides well, and his career numbers don’t suggest a huge split. Holt may have been a touch unlucky last year against southpaws, as with a 27% line-drive rate against them he only managed a .277 BABIP. He was probably due a couple more hits. That’s one of the better line-drive rates against lefties in the game, if he’d had enough ABs to qualify which he obviously didn’t as a utility player.

Thirdly, the Cubs seem intent on adding contact hitters to the lineup, and Holt is that when he plays. Holt has an 86.5% contact-rate, which on the Cubs would be just about astronomical. Of all their regulars, only Rizzo was above 80%. Holt walks a decent amount, doesn’t strike out much, and gets the ball in play. The Cubs don’t have a ton of that, though Hoerner is supposed to make up some of that difference.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): Well, it’s debatable how much the Cubs need a player like this, depending on the other maneuvers the team makes (Hilda…I have invented a maneuver….). There’s a chance Hoerner could start the year as the top second baseman, and he could fill in at short when Javy needs a day. As we said, Bote’s around, so Holt wouldn’t be much more than a left-handed compliment to him. And if Happ is still here, and not permanently installed in left after a Kyle Schwarber trade (don’t you fucking dare, Theo), he can bounce into second as well.

Holt doesn’t provide a lot of pop, just kind of serviceable offense that blends nicely with his flexibility. Or what used to be his flexibility. That’s the other thing, is that it’s been a couple years since he was moved around everywhere, so there’s a chance he might not be able to do it anymore. Still rather have him taking these ABs than Descalso, though.

Holt will also turn 32 during the season, so that also plays a role in what he can or can’t do.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Another part of the appeal here is he can’t possibly cost much. Holt made $3.75M in arbitration last year, and this is his first crack at free agency. I can’t fathom he’d cost more than $4M or $5M for one year, if that. Oh here’s a kicker, it was Theo who drafted him. So you know there’s a connection there. For a utility bat, you could do way worse.

Hockey

Game #18 – Hawks vs. Knights Preview: So You Think You Can Dance?

By Sam Fels 1332 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 6-7-4   Knights 9-7-3

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: NBCSN

DIAMONDS AND DUST: Sinbin.Vegas

The Hawks will begin a mini-roadie through the nouveau riche of the NHL, with tonight’s stop in Sin City before heading to Music City on Saturday night. Clearly Sin and Music go together, as every person who’s thrown a bible at you has told you.

And these are not two venues that many in the following will be greeting giddily. We know what happened to the Hawks the last time they were in Nashville, and they have yet to get a point out of Vegas in two seasons and three trips. In fact, they’ve been done to the tune of a combined 13-7 there, and last year’s 4-3 loss was the only time they were within a zip code of the Knights in their own resort.

You can debate whether or not it’s a good time to catch a team after they’ve lost four of five and six of eight. Clearly, they’re not playing well. But also clearly, they’re probably pretty angry and going to come out with a fair measure of piss and vinegar. Especially as those four losses for the Knights were on the road and this is their first home game since. The archers and drummers will be even more amped up.

Not that there weren’t some bad losses for them on their recent trip. There are few excuses you can come up with to justify losing to Detroit and barely squeaking by Columbus in regulation. OT losses in Winnipeg and Toronto are more understandable, as is getting kicked to shits by the Caps in DC. Just kind of a thing they do these days. That all happened to Vegas.

And it’s mostly because the offense has dried up. They scored 10 goals in those five games, and they haven’t managed more than three goals in any game in November, nor more than two in their last four. They only managed 19 shots in their loss to Detroit, which was definitely a “Let’s get this the fuck over with and get home” kind of effort. They kind of did the same thing against Columbus, which sort of indicates they’re picking their spots a bit.

Don’t worry, the Knights are still going to be annoying all season. They’re still one of the better metric teams around, and they produce just about as good and as many chances as anyone, ranking third in xGF/60 at evens. They’ve had issues with the other side, as they’re barely middling in the ones they’ve given up, and that might have something to do with having a pretty immobile defense beyond Nate Schmidt. They’re also unlucky in that they’re shooting less than 7% as a team, and they can’t get too many saves with just a .909 at evens. The former will straighten itself out before too long. The latter…

…maybe not so much. As you know by know. Seabiscuit lookalike Marc-Andre Fleury is old and has been abhorrent of late, with an .877 SV% over his last five starts. Malcolm Subban isn’t going to save any team, and counting on him for more than a spot start here and there is going to lead to a downfall. The Knights had better hope for that goals-explosion soon, because there’s a more than zero chance their goaltending just never quite comes around again. They’re just going to count on a soon-to-be 35-year-old Fleury to find it.

Still, this is a test of the Hawks apparently new “system” of being more open and adventurous…which saw them give up 57 shots to a barely interested Leafs team. If the Knights are fully engaged, then they might give up 75. This is a team the Hawks really haven’t come close to being able to run with since they came into existence, and now they apparently seem intent on going toe-to-toe with just about anyone, it could be ugly. It could also be the only way.

The Hawks almost got their first regulation win against the Knights the last time they played, but that involved maxing out while the Knights were kind of only there. And even that got them a last-minute equalizer. The Hawks were able to skate with them in the neutral zone and Duncan Keith had his best game in three seasons or so to cut off things at the blue line. That game also cost the Hawks Connor Murphy, which indicates some of the strain of the effort.

The tweaks the Hawks have made are meant to get their forwards out against d-men they’re either faster than or more skilled than or both, and usually that will be the case. It will be here, as you want to get isolate in space against the likes of McNabb and Engelland and Holden. The problem is you have to sacrifice a bit the help you’re giving your d-men to get out from under the frightening speed of the Knights forwards, so how the Hawks escape will go a long way to indicating where this one will go. Can the Hawks D find enough time to even just chip off the glass and behind the Knights defensemen for their forwards to skate onto?

Good test for Boqvist tonight too, as this is the exact type of opponent the Hawks need him for while also being the one he has to figure out how to get out from under. He has the feet to actually open himself up and get the Hawks into the neutral zone and beyond, and he’s the only one, but he also has to navigate his way through the furious Knights forecheck which has buried basically all of his teammates on the blue line in every meeting. See how he handles it.

If the Hawks are serious about taking their hand off the throttle, then it won’t be boring. At this point, we can’t ask for much more.

Hockey

Game #18 – Hawks vs. Knights Spotlight: Are We Getting The Real Patches?

By Sam Fels 1220 0

If you want to feel better about organizational methods, it’s always good to laugh at someone else. It doesn’t mean your team is run any better, but at least you know there are other idiots along with you. Misery loves company, and so does idiocy. AMERICA.

Cast your mind back three years ago, when the Montreal Canadiens traded PK Subban to Nashville. Part of the reason they did that was they felt he was a problem in the dressing room, and the reason they felt like that was their captain Max Pacioretty pretty much made that clear. Because Pacioretty is the most boring person in the world and adheres to the strict hockey code that no one can ever be interesting in any way, or something.

Well, less than two years later Pacioretty was gone to Vegas, so that’s some excellent long-term planning there. And the Habs haven’t won a playoff series since all this started anyway. Sounds a touch familiar. Strange that Les Habitants are run by a former Hawks employee, no?

Not that Pacioretty has been all that glorious himself. A big reason the Canadiens decided to punt him before he hit free agency is they felt he was already on the decline. And there was reason to think that. His last year in Montreal saw him play only 64 games, and score just 17 goals. And while a 4.7% shooting-percentage at even-strength and an 8% overall just aren’t Patches numbers, there were other warning signs. We would never trust Marc Bergevin to actually heed them, but maybe he got it right anyway.

Pacioretty’s chances and attempts were dropping. After topping out in ’15-’16 with exactly an 1.00 xGF/60, he had declined in the next two seasons. His attempts per game also fell by a quarter in the next two seasons. Same with his scoring chances. Pacioretty simply wasn’t getting to the same areas. A shooting-percentage spike saved one of those seasons, but he fell to just 17 goals in his last season in the Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge.

Things didn’t improve much in his first year in the desert, either. Patches once again saw his body let him down, as he only played 66 games last year. He did manage 22 goals, but still wasn’t anywhere near the 35-goal machine he had been in Montreal and which the Knights probably thought they were getting some version of when they traded for him and gave him an additional five years on his contract. Again, his metrics continued to slip.

It appears that slide has arrested, at least in the open environs of October hockey.

So far, Patches is averaging more shots per game than he has at any point in his career. His expected-goals is higher than at any time since he became a genuine top-line threat. His attempts per 60 are up around 2016 levels. So even though he’s getting no luck with a 7% shooting-percentage overall, he’s still managed six goals and you’d expect with the chances he’s getting that he’s going to have a binge here pretty soon. Just hopefully not tonight, but when has anything like that worked out for the Hawks against the Knights?

You can probably thank Mark Stone‘s arrival for this. All of Patches’s numbers took a bump up when Stone was on the other side of Paul Stastny from him, and that’s continued this year. Although it could be argued he’s having just as big of an impact on Stone, as in very limited time without each other (just 57 minutes or so), it’s Stone’s numbers that fall off a cliff more than Pacioretty’s. Either way, they make for quite the force. Especially in the playoffs last year, where Pacioretty threw up 11 points in just seven games against the Sharks. Too bad he doesn’t kill penalties though, huh?

They’d better. Pacioretty’s contract was starting to have real potential to become James Neal-like if he’d continued tumbling down the mountainside. He’s signed until he’s 34, and power forwards do not tend to age well in a league that keeps getting faster. And we’ve been over how capped out the Knights are in the near future.

That’s a worry for another day though, because the Knights look primed to take another serious run at a less and less impressive Western Conference. Pacioretty is going to have a major role in that.

Hockey

Game #18 – Hawks vs. Knights: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1321 0

Ryan Reaves: It was ever thus. In the latest instance of why garbage cans like this have to be tossed out of the league but never will, we present Reaves’s bullshit with Adam Lowry. Last week, Lowry hit Alex Tuch. Was it totally clean? Perhaps not. It certainly wasn’t completely malicious either. But of course, whether it was clean or not doesn’t really matter, does it? Because players and teams lose their mud over clean hits all the time. Which is another thing the league needs to do away with.

So on Lowry’s next shift, and this is something that actually happens in this league that any other sport would suspend a coach a quarter of a season for, Gerard Gallant sent Ryan Reaves to take the draw against Lowry. You can imagine where it goes from here, and no, he doesn’t fix the cable.

This is clearly, patently ridiculous, and the only reason a player like Reaves–who can’t do anything else–is even in the league. The fight didn’t make Tuch less hurt. It didn’t take the hit away. Nor will it deter Lowry from hitting anyone else. This is just macho bullshit so everyone can feel like they did something while accomplishing exactly nothing but making the league look Mickey Mouse and opening up even more players to concussion problems. Oh you so tough, Gallant.

But of course, you’ll find it championed on the league’s broadcast partner’s site. Which pretty much tells you what the league thinks of this stupid and seedy underbelly.

You may think we’re being hypocritical, given that Jonathan Toews went after Jake Muzzin on Sunday for a clearly dirty hit on Alex Nylander. In the moment, it’s hard to not understand. And also, Toews is an actual player. This isn’t his only use. He doesn’t have to justify his existence through this kind of thing, which makes it even more noticeable when he does this kind of thing. It was also in the spur of the moment, not planned out like Gallant and Reaves to exact a pound of flesh for perceived injustices.

Gallant planned this out and sent Reaves out to do his dirty work. We know Gallant played in the 80s with the asshole-riven Wings, but that time is past. But the league will never look twice.

Brayden McNabb: Sneaky dirty. We didn’t realize until last meeting. But as he gets slower he gets much more cross-check-ier.

Cody Glass: PUNCH THAT FACE.

Hockey

Game #18 – Hawks vs. Knights: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 928 0

Hawks

Notes: The Hawks’ skate came after we put this together, so a bit of a guess. But it’s hard to think they’ll change up too much after five of six points. Ryan Carpenter should return at the expense of Zack Smith, but it could be Caggiula who’s had a rough go of late. We wouldn’t mind seeing Dach replace Nylander on the top line wing at some point, but won’t hold our breath…Toews got domed by Auston Matthews on Sunday, so keep an eye who Gallant wants to throw at him tonight…given how Lehner played in Nashville last time, we think he’ll be saved for that one with Crow getting this one and the Sabres at home…

Notes: The Knights have been using the AHL shuffle of late to keep some cap space for midseason trades, so we’re not exactly sure which plug will come in from the cold…Alex Tuch looks set to return from missing a few games tonight…Peyton Krebs may make his NHL debut somewhere, in case you care. And you don’t…since starting out on fire Stone has no goals in the last five and only two in the last 10, but also it’s more the “can’t buy a bucket” fashion than being unnoticeable…they’re out for Eakin’s head these days, as the third line has been a bit of a wasteland all season for the Knights…

Football

Sons Of Wilber Marshall Week 10: Is This Anything?

By Sam Fels 1280 0

So, is there anything to be gleaned from an actual win? Or just too much effort to get past a Lions team with no Matthew Stafford?

Brian Schmitz: What I really liked was the success we saw when Nagy went no huddle and got Mitch outside of the pocket. I’ve been screaming for it all year. It’s the only way this team has a chance to be successful. Another positive was the “touchdown to checkdown” mentality we saw from the QB.

Do they lose to a Lions team with a healthy Matt Stafford? Probably? But a win is a win.

Tony Martin: Yesterday was ugly. Yesterday was the type of date you go on where you would qualify it as a success, but it didn’t feel good in any way whatsoever. Bears fans and their 2019 team went to Olive Garden and had the most authentic Italian food that Chicago had to offer, went to the finest Bar Louie location in the city for that big city corner bar experience, and then we all went back to their place and had consensual sex, but every step involved lacked passion. This Bears team is not a team you bring home to meet your folks, this is the team you call when those highlight videos of the 2006 team just don’t do it for you like they used to. I apologize for the overly erotic metaphor, but this team has been fucking me since September and I haven’t even sniffed the unlimited salad and breadsticks.

Wes French: I think the Bears (and maybe Capitalism/social constructs?) have finally broken Tony, and after a win no less.

To me it was a lot more of the same, papered over with the fact that Matt Patricia is a bad head coach and was without his QB1. Sure, we got a decently competent looking Trubs for a stretch, and hopefully there was enough there to build off of. The offense still only produced 226 yards, while the defense gave up 357. The first four possessions for the Bears saw three three-and-outs and another that gained all of 12 yards before a punt. seven of 12 drives ending three-and-out is not exactly a recipe for success.
The bookend TDs before and after the half were great to see, but Nagy still couldn’t get the right game plan or execution to put the game away fully and we had to watch as the Lions nearly came all the way back to tie the game late. The defense gave up a four-play, 81 yard TD drive with a few minutes to play, then were aided by an offensive PI call to help close out the game as the Lions drove deep into Chicago’s end on the final drive.
A win’s a win, but it wasn’t real encouraging.
Tony: I’m frequently jostled from sleep trembling, shaking, in a cold sweat. I’ve been out of work for 21 days, my money is running out- I feel like Tarik Cohen taking an RPO up the middle on 1st and 10. Scrambling, nervous thoughts fill my days as I email and call potential employers. Mitch Trubisky haunts my indecision about taking a job offer in Freeport; am I just checking down when the Allen Robinson of jobs is just breaking free downfield? Did I make the right choice? Or am I Matt Nagy: unable to take criticism and adapt to a rapidly changing landscape?

The 2019 Chicago Bears have been playing this season like a depressed 33-year-old, and it took me until Week 10 to realize it.

(Off the record: I’m good, y’all. Just leaning in a little bit)
How big of a problem will Danny Trevathan’s absence be going forward? This was already a team hurting down the middle of defense without Akiem Hicks…
Wes: Not as big of an issue as all the other problems? The Nicks (Kwiatkoski and Williams) stepped up on Sunday, but Roquan is still MIA for the most part.  Trevathan and his intangibles will be noticeably missed, but the Bears could do worse than giving the load to Kwiatkoski. Maybe Roquan can use this opportunity to turn his season around, and that would be a welcome positive storyline in a season full of shitty ones.
Tony: I feel for Danny on more of an existential sense than for what his loss means for the team, because let’s be real, without Hicks both Danny and Roquan have struggle to consistently fill the gaps like they’re used to.  I’m afraid this is the last time we’ll see Danny Trevathan in a Bears uniform, because as we know his contract expires at the end of this season. I think how the organization handles Danny’s contract situation will tell us a lot about where they think they are in the championship window. Hoping they bring him back and he retires a Bear.
Brian: The defense will probably be worse off, but it’s not like the unit is a world beater right now. They are having trouble getting to the QB, and although Trevathan is a beast, he, like most of the defense, isn’t having as good of a year as last. God forbid anyone on the team from UGA decides to step up and be as good as they were supposed to be.