Everything you need for tonight’s tilt in the Coliseum, where they come to see ’em.
Everything you need for tonight’s ho-down in Music City.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 7-7-4 9-6-3
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
WE ALL LIVE IN A YELLOW TRAILER: On The Forecheck
You probably didn’t expect, after that complete shellacking two weeks ago in the same venue, when these two met up again the Hawks would be only three points behind the Predators. And with a win tonight in regulation, the Preds would be feeling hot giardiniera breath on their necks. Such is reality, which is what happens when various parts of your team rotate going haywire for a couple weeks.
The Preds have lost five of six coming into this (a couple in extra time), while the Hawks have sucked up 10 of 13 points in the meantime. Which is how you get this standing. That doesn’t mean these teams are just three points apart in quality overall, and you saw that the last game these two played. The Hawks haven’t been rolled like that since the Suhonen or Yawney days, and perhaps was the start of the process that got the Hawks to change their ways…however minor or major that actually was.
So what’s up with the Preds? Why has it fallen out of gear for them? Well one, the goaltending has been terrible. Pekka Rinne has only had one good start since that October disaster (for the Hawks), and it came against the Red Wings which barely counts. In his other three starts his SV% is .797. Saros has been better in the meantime, though he couldn’t stop that nine-goals-of-fun the Avalanche hung up on them.
The offense hasn’t been all that consistent either. They managed one goal against the Sharks, and one goal against the Rangers in this streak. When they have gotten goals, Rinne has employed the Roger Dorn defense in net.
Is that what the Preds are overall? Probably not, though they’re not an unholy force either. Their Corsi-percentage is just at tick over even. Their expected-goals is just a tick above that. Which is a tad strange for the Predators. And digging a little deeper, it gets a touch confusing.
In terms of attempts, the Preds give up a lot of them. Bottom-10 in the league. They also generate a fair amount for themselves. But when it comes to chances, it’s the opposite. They keep teams to the outside for the most part, but they also don’t get to the prime areas enough themselves. There’s a lot of noise in the Predators’ game right now, in that there’s a lot of stuff happening but not a huge portion of it really means anything. Still, when Rinne is off to the Kerry Wood Memorial Zoo then those half-chances and winged-hopes from the outside are still ending up in twine.
It’s generally not a good sign when your two leading scorers are d-men. One you can get away with. The Preds have a clear line from their top six to their bottom six and their top pairing to their bottom pairings. When Josi and Ellis are on the ice, good things happen and the Preds are on the right side of the ice. Same goes for either Matt Duchene‘s or Treat Boy’s line. But when Nick Bonino or Kyle Turris is the center, again, the Predators back up.
That’s probably why the Preds have made no secret they’d like to move Turris’s ass along, in another brilliant David Poile move. He’s currently centering their fourth line for the rate of $6M a year. They could also probably use another puck-mover on the second or third pairing. Didn’t they have one once? I seem to remember they did. He was pretty good, right? Correct me if I’m wrong.
Another factor the Preds might want to keep an eye on is that they’re currently shooting over 10% at even-strength, which leads the league by nearly a full percentage point. That is likely to come down, and then where will they be?
Turning to the Hawks, who will get Connor Murphy back tonight. While no team should need Connor Murphy this much, the Hawks do and he’s simply been their best d-man last season and the brief time he was around this one. At the moment he seems slotted on the third pairing, as Colliton doesn’t want to mess up what he’s got going with Keith-Gus and de Haan-Seabrook. This won’t take more than a period to change, given the mobility the Hawks need to counter the Preds.
Robin Lehner will be in goal, and he’ll probably need to perform a few miracles like he did last time in Nashville just to keep the Hawks from getting embarrassed. Hopefully this time if he does that it’ll result in points.
This will be something of a test of the Hawks new, aggressive, Loyola-Marymount ’89 ways. Then again, so was Vegas. The Hawks simply couldn’t deal with the Preds speed at forward last time, and they were turning the puck over before they knew they had it. This meant the Preds defense could pinch and move up in the zone to their hearts’ content, as there was no threat the other way.
If the Hawks are still serious about getting behind the opponent’s defense, while risking their defense and center being outmanned down low in their zone, they might get the Preds’ defense to back up. At least it could provide a quick outlet for a defense that’s going to be under serious pressure from the off, even if it’s just laying it out into the neutral zone and causing races back. But going back is where you want the bottom four D of the Preds. It hasn’t worked out well for them lately. The risk of course is that furious Preds forecheck will have even more fun with even less manpower and options for any puck carrier below his net or deep in his zone for the Hawks.
You’d think there’d be a measure of pride for the Hawks here as well. They were made to look like a high school team their last visit. That will still be fresh in the memory banks. Pekka Rinne was basically laughing at them in the postgame. The Hawks still like to think they carry the most pedigree in any matchup. It’s fading, but they still cling to it. Perhaps now would be the time to show it.
Mikael Granlund‘s career might be measured in just how much it never quite was.
When Granlund came up with the Wild in 2013, it was assumed that Mikko Koivu was only keeping the #1 center role warm for him. Here we are nearly seven years later, and Koivu is somehow still there while Granlund is now in yellow. The best laid plains of mice and men…
It could be argued whether Granlund ever really got a chance to take over as the top center in St. Paul. He certainly got looks under different coaches, but never serious run. and Granlund’s numbers certainly weren’t bad with the Wild, far from it. He had two 65+-point seasons and was on his way to another one before being traded last year. He had put together two 20+-goal seasons and again, before the trade to Nashville was on another one. They aren’t #1 center numbers, but they’re good. Equal or better than what Koivu was doing. It says something though when the team chooses Eric Staal and his walker over you.
Granlund also found most of his success on the wing, and when tried as the #1 center things just didn’t quite mesh. The Wild had that one, Dubnyk-inspired season that saw them almost win the division in 2017…and then go quietly out of things in the first round of the playoffs. Maybe that was the beginning of the end for the Wild, as Granlund never really took a playoff series by the neck.
Then again, how good were those Wild teams anyway? And we know the braintrust was smelling foul, because they moved Granlund possibly at the height of his value for Kevin Goddamn Fiala, who’s been a healthy scratch at times. Maybe the Wild just didn’t know what they had?
Harder to make that case, because surprisingly it hasn’t been wonderful yet for Granlund as a Predator. It made sense in theory; a fast, skilled player moving to a team that wanted to get up and down the ice a whole lot more than Bruce Boudreau could with the outfit he was provided in Minnehaha. But Granlund only managed five points in 16 games with the Preds last year, and is on the same total so far this year in 18 games. And you can’t say he hasn’t been given chances, because he’s exclusively been on the top six, centered by either Matt Duchene or Treat Boy.
Granlund has run into some rotten luck in Music City, it has to be said. He shot below 4% after his trade last season, and is only at 7.9% this year, which would be the lowest mark of his career since he became an NHL regular. Granlund’s attempts are the highest of his career as well, as are his individual expected goals per game. Perhaps he’s squeezing, trying to be too perfect with the shots and chances he’s getting. There could be a binge here soon, given what the metrics say.
Which will make it a hard call for Nashville either at the deadline or in the summer. Granlund will hit unrestricted free agency after the season, and at 28 it’ll probably be his only chance, or last chance, to ink a big contract. He won’t fit into the Preds’ long-term plans if they can’t unload Kyle Turris and his “yeah but who gives a shit?” production.
How big of a market there will be outside for Granlund is debatable. There’s always a home for a player with his skillset, but he’s also the type of player teams sign just to sign someone, to try and prove to anyone listening they’re trying, and then watch that player not move the needle a whole lot. He feels like another Gustav Nyquist. A fine addition to an already built team, a contributor, but he’s not going to pivot anyone’s fortunes.
Perhaps that’s the conclusion the Wild got to with him. The Preds might not be far behind.
Ryan Johansen – Treat Boy here always gets labeled as one of the top centers in the game, and we still can’t figure out why. His numbers the past two seasons mirror that of Jonathan Toews, and everyone’s relatively sure he looks like the host of “Tales From The Crypt.” RyJo Sen played his ass off just long enough in 2017 to get a fat new deal from the Preds, and then he became a fat new deal. The dude has one 70+ point season. When the Preds get bounced early again, it’ll probably be because Ryan O’Reilly or Nathan MacKinnon hand him his considerable lunch.
Matt Duchene – Rich kid face with an Oakland booty!
Austin Watson – Any day now, David Poile is going to yell, “I’m so fucking glad we have Austin Watson” at some female reporter. Except it’s Nashville, so that’s probably like an every day thing there.
Hawks
Predators
Tony Martin: Well Wes, I guess saying we would be at this point in the 2019 NFL season would’ve been pessimistic had we predicted it in August. The system is all busted up and now the 5-4 Rams welcome our shitty Bears to their house for an opportunity to show ass to a national audience once again.
In preparation for this nightmare, we’re both going to look at top tier QB regression nominees Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky, and how they’ll fare against the opposing defenses.
Jared Goff, who my initial mischaracterization as Ryan Phillipe even though I meant Ryan Gosling caused the excellent photoshop that accompanies this article, is without a doubt hitting his Senior Slump. In spite of his excellent 2018 season, Goff is back to playing incredibly unevenly once again. He’s coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl season and looks simultaneously like a world-beater and an average bumslayer. He’s destroyed bottom-tier defenses like Atlanta and Cincinnati, but struggled against Tampa Bay (?) and San Francisco.
Combing through Goff’s game logs, there is ABSOLUTELY a correlation between how often Goff is sacked and how often he makes mistakes and turns the ball over. He has had nine passes intercepted and fumbled nine times in their nine games this season, but they come in bunches, and it’s all rooted in how much pressure the opposing defense puts on his pretty blonde shoulders.
How much of the Bears domination of Goff last year was scheme and game-planning, and how much of it was just a talent disparity between the Bears D and the shorthanded Rams (Cooper Kupp was out by week 14 last year). Watching highlights, it’s not that Goff was completely ineffective – he just had no time to pass on most of his snaps. Mack, Hicks, and Goldman were in the backfield on almost every snap. Incidentally, when the Bears couldn’t get pressure, Goff was successful in moving the ball down the field.
The 2019 Bears defense has struggled to get consistent pressure against quarterbacks, and closing running lanes despite a fairly good job shutting down cutbacks. Maybe they don’t allow lots of cutback runs because the initial hole is always big enough to get decent yards out of, but I don’t have the All-22 to confirm that. Do the Bears bring more heat this week against a QB who is not known for his mobility? I’m into it.
I would have to say the Rams biggest highlight from this season has to be their stunning reverse flea flicker against the Bengals earlier this season. A team with a pass rush doesn’t give Goff that kind of time, and he struggles as a result. If this team can do two things, Goff struggles and the Bears look like a real NFL team again:
1. Contain Todd Gurley
2. Apply consistent pressure to Jared Goff, even if it means committing extra defenders
Wes French :I’m taking partial credit for the photoshop in that I was the one that kept the Phillipe bit going and correlated it to Goff as a real world metaphor…but let’s move on.
Mitchell Trubisky isn’t even worthy of a Phillipe comp as his one uneven year led to the brutal 2019 through 10 weeks that we’ve seen, putting him on more of a “got a try out for Mickey Mouse Club, was an extra for three episodes, wound up doing B-movies and dabbling in Cinemax after dark features to pay rent” realm of actor.
Mitch was supposed to take a leap along with the Bears offense, the one that ranked 20th in yards/play last year and currently sits at 30th in 2019. All the leaps for the 2019 Bears have been backwards, sometimes literally as Mitch hops, skips and jumps to double digit yard losses on a lot of the sacks he takes (of which there are far too many).
Mitch only has three INTs on the year, but he did miss a few games and he’s still barely over 2:1 TD:INT ratio with eight touchdowns on the year. And three of those came last week against a beaten and brutal Lions pass defense that Mitch still only managed 173 passing yards. His 5.8 yards per attempt round out his 30th and over club for individual QB stats, a club that Mitch finds himself in too often this year.
There’s been a lot of optimistic talk about the 3rd-year QB and his offense building on that Lions effort, but a trip to the suddenly not so defensively stout Rams may not be the tonic Mitch needs. The plan should mirror last season when Mitch wasn’t very effective, but the running game was.
The Bears used a lot of slide help protection on the O-Line to mitigate the great equalizer that is Aaron Donald, and I’d look for them to double/triple team him on nearly every play he’s on the field. The rushing attack would also do well to scheme away from Donald, where using Tarik Cohen and his speed to run AWAY from Aaron Donald while simply allowing blockers to seal him off and keep him in pursuit is the winning formula.
Mitch will need to be something he hasn’t in 2019 – accurate and on point with decision making. The Rams can and will make his life hell with their rush, but if he can commit to a play and make the throw that’s there without hesitation the Bears will have a shot to move the ball and potentially steal one on the road. Moving the pocket a little more like last week against Detroit and getting Mitch on some bootlegs and misdirection PA plays, if they can get that ground game going early, could lead to the big plays the team and fans have been waiting for all year. We got a few glimpses last week, how about a whole decent offensive game?
1. Contain Donald
2. Run wild, protect the ball and stay the course with what worked in week 10
Bears Offense vs. Rams Defense
Rams Offense vs. Bears Defense
The chatter of late, if you have your ear to the Hawks’ wire, is that they’ve really tapped into their offense, unlocked the cheat code, their heads have gotten super huge and now all they do is the flying triple-flip dunks (man I need to play some NBA Jam soon). You can find symposiums on it here, here, or here.
We talked about it on the podcast, and before the Vegas game we did notice that the Hawks were looking to get out into space more…which is just about the aim of every team that’s worth a shit. But hey, we want the Hawks to be worth a shit, too! Colliton did let it out that they’d moved their weak-side forward closer to the point-man, because when the Hawks were recovering pucks they found that having him four feet away wasn’t leading to a lot of breakout possibilities. They were starting out with the opponent’s d-men and third forward already in front of them. The hope was that they could get behind them a bit more with a second forward ready to spring. Makes sense.
Is it really working out, though? Get ready folks, I’ve got more charts! Oh do I have charts! First, their attempts per game:
Corsi For/60
Hmm, not really much there. Kind of trending down all season. Ok, let’s try just actual shots-on-goal…
Shots For/60
Not much there either. I know, let’s got to expected goals for, because that will tell us if they’re getting better chances even with the same or slightly less amount of attempts and shots.
xGF/60
A little better. Some of this is score-effects of course, but overall the Hawks are still trending down. Now, it’s important to mention that as the season goes along, pretty much every team trends down a touch, because October hockey is the most open and then teams really start to lock it down, or stop caring about getting up the ice as fast, fatigue is probably a factor, as are injuries to key players. But still, for all the noise you’d like to think the Hawks are trending a little better than this. Could it be something else?
Shooting Percentage
Houston Hello!
Now, again, we have to be fair to the Hawks. For most of the season they were shooting below 7%, and with the snipers they have that simply was never going to continue. There was always going to be a market correction, though it would have been hard to predict this violent of one over three games.
But let’s be positive, while admitting this is far too small of a sample size to know what’s really going to happen. But check this out:
xGA/60
Whatever the Hawks have been doing, this has held pretty steady over the season. So you could say that the threat the Hawks have carried of last has kept some teams on their heels. Both the Knights and Leafs piled up shots but not exactly a ton of great chances until score-effects kicked in, and even then it wasn’t huge. The Knights especially, given how immobile their defense is in spots, were hesitant to get them too involved, and when they did we saw the amount of odd-man rushes the Hawks got in the other direction.
Will that work tomorrow in Nashville against perhaps the most mobile defense in the league? Most likely not. But the thing is, few teams have the mobility on the blue line the Preds do, and they can get overly adventurous here and there. We need more games to know for sure, and probably isn’t worth revisiting until the new year, but so far the Hawks have benefitted from their marksmanship returning to their normal levels more than some systematic change.
