Hockey

Game #23 and #24 – Hawks vs. Stars Spotlight: The One From Outside The Box That Got In

By Sam Fels 1541 0

We, and many others, have long lamented that NHL coaching and GM hires seem to come from the same shallow and brackish pool they have for decades. Once you get one job in the league, you get 17, as comrade McClure is often fond of saying. And with that, there’s always going to be a lack of new ideas and creativity. The league just keeps rehashing the same ol’ shit.

Of course, it would help if when the new blood do get a chance, they didn’t prove to be a complete pillock. David Hakstol flamed out in Philadelphia pretty hard. You’ve seen what Jeremy Colliton can do, or can’t. Guy Boucher was an original hire a while ago. He proved he could only trap and that worked for one season. David Quinn is currently fucking with every young kid’s head in New York.

So perhaps we should take some satisfaction that the one in Dallas, Jim Montgomery, has found a path to success. Whether it involves any original thinking is up for discussion, and we’ll get into that forthwith.

Monty came in with about as much pedigree as you can get outside of the league and paying your dues as an assistant or slogging in the AHL. He turned a good U. of Denver program into a power, with two Frozen Four appearances, one NCHA conference championship, and an NCAA one to cap it off. Denver did it with a swarming, up-tempo style, which he had hoped to bring to the Stars.

It didn’t quite work that way. The Stars were a middling team last Christmas, right around .500 and just kind of treading in the fetid water of the bottom rungs of the Central and West. From there until the end of the season, the Stars went 25-16-3 to get into the playoffs, where they then upended the Nashville Predators in the first round before taking the Blues as far as you can go without winning.

Sadly, Montgomery had to do that by turning the Stars into the most boring outfit around. From Christmas on, Dallas was the most defensively tight unit in the league. They had the lowest goals-against at even-strength, top-10 in expected goals against, all the while eschewing offense as they also had the lowest goals for at even strength. They were dull as shit, trapping the will to live out of everyone but their own players and fans. Which is all that matters, really.

But when you have one of the league’s best goalies in Ben Bishop, and really a plodding defense behind John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen, and really only one line of offense, what else are you supposed to do? Montgomery fit the system to the parts, which must be really nice.

When a coach goes the Mourinho route, generally you’ll get results for a year because limiting things means you can get a coin to land on your side more often, and when you’re reducing chances and goals you’re basically turning more and more games into coin flips. Or more likely, teams in the middle of an interminable regular season just aren’t going to want to work through you, and you are more desperate because you need the results more. And then good results start to pile up, the confidence and belief in what you’re doing grows, and there you go.

But after that, players really don’t want to work that hard without the puck for very long. Not without at least getting to play a bit more and try and score a bit more and make games easier. You can only work in the gulag for so long before you spirit breaks.

It would appear Monty figured that out, too. The Stars started the season horribly, and stood at 1-7-1 after nine games. They’ve gone 12-1-1 since. And check out their expected goals numbers as the season has gone along:

They have opened things up, and traded a little security to allow Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski et al some more space. They’ve scored 49 goals during this 14-game spree, or just about 3.5 per game.

Now it’s not all that simple. Some is just luck. Tyler Seguin has been Tyler Seguin, but only bagged two goals in the season’s first month due to just rotten luck. Ben Bishop has posted a .942 in November. Heiskanen has eight points in his last four games. Players get hot, players get cold. But the Stars have also had to negotiate around injuries to John Klingberg and Roope Hintz, two big pieces. Maybe it evens out.

It at least feels like Montgomery knows which buttons to push and when to maximize what he has. And we look on with longing eyes…

Hockey

Game #23 and #24 – Hawks vs. Stars: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1152 0

Corey Perry – Perhaps the king of all in this category. We were convinced the Hawks were doing to sign him this summer because they believe in “that element.” Maybe they realized he was another veteran who at least played with Keith, Toews, and Seabrook on Team Canada and would quickly see through Kelvin Gemstone’s shit and figured it wasn’t worth the risk. It’s gone all right for Perry so far in Dallas, but wait until the games pile up and he starts to break down. All he’ll have left are spears to the balls and punches to the back of the head through two linesmen after the whistle. This guy has been a coward his whole career and that’s while being 6-4. His permanent hang-dog expression only worsens it. We look forward to his retirement where he shuffles off to the Orange County dump to eat rats full time.

Jamie Benn – Can you call someone a twat when they’ve never seen one? Probably not.

Roman Polak – Conning yet another coach into thinking he isn’t an utter disaster. He’s Czech Seabrook, except without the passing skill and an actual beer fart for a face. More power to him for all the money’s he’s stolen, though.

Hockey

Game #23 and #24 – Hawks vs. Stars: Lineup & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1068 0

Hawks

Notes: Highmore was called up to be the extra forward so perhaps Caligula’s absence is going to go on a bit longer. And also they’ll never try seven d-men again…Top Cat doesn’t have a goal in his last eight…Throw out Nylander’s two garbage time goals against the Preds and he hasn’t scored a meaningful goal since October 14th. Maybe time to give Dach a look-see there?

Stars

Notes: Hintz and Klingberg returned against the Hawks last time they met, and both were on the scoresheet against the Knights last night…this will be the Stars’ third game in four so maybe catch them tired?…Radulov and Janmark has switched lines and Radulov responded with five shots and three points against Vegas…the Hawks will get another look at Khudobin, which didn’t go all that well last time…Montgomery talked about how the Hawks always cycle back in their own zone when they get the puck, so maybe try and get up the ice quicker this time?

Hockey

Your Real NHL Standings At The Quarter Mark

By Sam Fels 1716 0

Ok so the quarter mark is a little past but I’m getting to it now so shut up. As a reminder, I like to occasionally take a look at what the NHL standings would look like if they had a standings system that was actually logical. So basically, we’re going to remove overtime results from the equation, and anything that goes beyond 60 minutes is a tie. So this is purely regulation results.  First, your actual NHL standings:

Atlantic Division GP W L OL PTS
Boston Bruins 22 14 3 5 33
Florida Panthers 22 12 5 5 29
Montreal Canadiens 22 11 6 5 27
Toronto Maple Leafs 24 10 10 4 24
Buffalo Sabres 22 10 9 3 23
Tampa Bay Lightning 19 10 7 2 22
Ottawa Senators 22 10 11 1 21
Detroit Red Wings 24 7 14 3 17
Metropolitan Division GP W L OL PTS
Washington Capitals 24 16 4 4 36
New York Islanders 20 16 3 1 33
Carolina Hurricanes 22 13 8 1 27
Pittsburgh Penguins 22 11 7 4 26
Philadelphia Flyers 22 11 7 4 26
Columbus Blue Jackets 21 9 8 4 22
New York Rangers 19 9 8 2 20
New Jersey Devils 20 7 9 4 18
Central Division GP W L OL PTS
St. Louis Blues 23 14 4 5 33
Colorado Avalanche 22 13 7 2 28
Dallas Stars 23 13 8 2 28
Winnipeg Jets 23 13 9 1 27
Chicago Blackhawks 22 9 9 4 22
Nashville Predators 21 9 9 3 21
Minnesota Wild 22 9 11 2 20
Pacific Division GP W L OL PTS
Edmonton Oilers 24 14 7 3 31
Arizona Coyotes 23 13 8 2 28
Vancouver Canucks 23 11 8 4 26
Vegas Golden Knights 24 11 9 4 26
Anaheim Ducks 23 10 10 3 23
San Jose Sharks 23 11 11 1 23
Calgary Flames 25 10 12 3 23
Los Angeles Kings 22 9 12 1 19

 

Ok, now let’s throw out OT.

Atlantic Division GP W RW L OL T PTS
Boston Bruins 22 14 14 3 5 5 33
Florida Panthers 22 12 7 5 5 10 24
Montreal Canadiens 22 11 8 6 5 8 24
Toronto Maple Leafs 24 10 7 10 4 7 21
Buffalo Sabres 22 10 7 9 3 6 20
Tampa Bay Lightning 19 10 8 7 2 4 20
Ottawa Senators 22 10 8 11 1 3 19
Detroit Red Wings 24 7 6 14 3 4 16
Metropolitan Division GP W RW L OL T PTS
Washington Capitals 24 16 10 4 4 10 30
New York Islanders 20 16 10 3 1 7 27
Pittsburgh Penguins 22 11 8 7 4 7 23
Carolina Hurricanes 22 13 8 8 1 6 22
Philadelphia Flyers 22 11 7 7 4 8 22
New York Rangers 19 9 8 8 2 3 19
Columbus Blue Jackets 21 9 5 8 4 8 18
New Jersey Devils 20 7 5 9 4 6 16
Central Division GP W RW L OL T PTS
St. Louis Blues 23 14 9 4 5 10 28
Dallas Stars 23 13 11 8 2 4 26
Colorado Avalanche 22 13 10 7 2 5 25
Winnipeg Jets 23 13 7 9 1 7 21
Chicago Blackhawks 22 9 7 9 4 6 20
Nashville Predators 21 9 8 9 3 4 20
Minnesota Wild 22 9 9 11 2 2 20
Pacific Division GP W RW L OL T PTS
Edmonton Oilers 24 14 11 7 3 6 28
Vancouver Canucks 23 11 9 8 4 6 24
Vegas Golden Knights 24 11 9 9 4 6 24
Arizona Coyotes 23 13 8 8 2 7 23
Anaheim Ducks 23 10 9 10 3 4 22
San Jose Sharks 23 11 8 11 1 4 20
Calgary Flames 25 10 6 12 3 7 19
Los Angeles Kings 22 9 6 12 1 4 16

Over in the WestSo what are some differences? Well, the Bruins are even more the class of the league, and the Panthers are trailing by some distance. The Capitals have an incredible 10 ties in 24 games, and come back to the pack a little more. Carolina and Pittsburgh swap places. Carolina and Philly are your wild card teams in the East.

Over in the West, the Blues come back to the pack a little, the Stars and Avs swap places, and the Hawks, Preds, and Wild are tied in a group of sadness, having only the Flames and the Kings beat. And the Flames are probably having all their shoestrings removed. The Hawks would be only two points out of a playoff spot though, instead of the current four they are now. Arizona would fall from second to fourth in their division. Arizona and Anaheim would be your wild cards.

Just some food for thought.

Everything Else

This Seems Less Than Good

By Sam Fels 1518 0

We’ve been accused in the past of reading too much into what players have to say after games. And that’s probably true to an extent. Quotes after games come when a player is probably at his most emotional and don’t have time exactly to really get on message, no matter how hard the Hawks work to keep everyone so. And that’s all last night could be.

On the podcast, we discussed whether or not Jeremy Colliton’s bending of the Hawks’ style was either simply being flexible as a coach should be, or having the rug pulled out from under him by both his players and front office. Well…

Trying to be fair here, and maybe Toews was just frustrated at seeing a winnable, or more accurately a tie-able game, get away from the Hawks late. Still, I can’t remember a time when Toews was even in the same neighborhood as critical of his coach. He and Joel Quenneville didn’t see eye to eye at times, mostly due to the constant line-shuffling (and this is only a guess really), but I don’t remember him ever in the press laying it all at Joel’s feet. Also, he usually called him by his name. “The coaches” seems a little more derisory.

Toews probably wasn’t any more placated by the actual reason Colliton gave to the press, which was he wanted Slater Koekkoek to play against his former team and to scratch Dominik Kubalik because…um…hey look over there! (smoke bomb and exit)

I should say here that I don’t think going with seven d-man, in a vacuum, is a bad idea. It should be done with Adam Boqvist here, of course. It would allow for greater sheltering of those who need it, like Seabrook, Boqvist (debatably), and Gustafsson (though the Hawks are the only ones convinced he doesn’t). You wouldn’t have to kill penalties with just four d-men if you have Boqvist and Gustafsson in the lineup. And the idea was that it wouldn’t just allow Patrick Kane to get extra shifts, but every good forward the Hawks have to do so, which didn’t happen last night.

But that’s in a vacuum. In reality, every time the Hawks have tried this, their players have made an unpleasant face. Seabrook and Keith have openly bristled at it in the past, and now Toews is. The only one who likes it is Kane because he played 27 fucking minutes last night. And even he probably senses it doesn’t work for his teammates.

To add on top that this was done for Slater Koekkoek….I’m sorry, let me emphasize….FETCH KOEKKOEK, is basically unconscionable. One, it’s not like Fetch is some Tampa legend and this is a special occasion. If you asked the Lightning about him, I’m guessing more than half of the players and staff would say, “Who?” Cam Ward facing a team he played 1,000 games for this was not.

Second, you reserve that kind of thing for players who have earned it. Players that have an elevated position and deserve the privilege of playing against former teammates simply because. Fetch has not done this. Fetch has not earned the right to be on an NHL team, other than simply being acquired by a GM who doesn’t want to seem to admit a mistake, or is under the delusion that another team would claim him on waivers, or both. Were the eight minutes he got truly special?

Toews knows all of this of course, and the only thing that really matters to Toews is winning. And Toews knows that swapping out Kubalik for a seventh d-man who can’t play and is something the leadership has definitely thumbs-down’d before is avese to that aim. The fact that he’s vocalizing it, even in the heat of the moment…well, I don’t want to say spells doom for Colliton but I also can’t think of another way to finish that sentence.

We know last year, and into this year, their terror of Brent Seabrook was partially based on him and Colliton having a prior relationship. Duncan Keith had no use for him, probably still doesn’t, and Kane was at least placated by playing over 25 minutes a night. Toews was and is the captain and will always try and keep things together, so essentially Seabrook was the deciding vote. The kids will follow the leader, literally.

Well Seabrook has been mishandled (even if the actual idea was the correct one), and Toews is agitating in the press. Anyone else have this image in their head?

Hockey

Game #22 – Lightning vs. Hawks Preview: First World Problems

By Sam Fels 1984 0

vs.

RECORDS: Lightning 9-7-2   Hawks 9-8-4

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THE GUYS WHO DON’T LOOK LIKE XQUISITE: Raw Charge

It may sound strange to say the Hawks have more points than the Lightning, but that’s the case as the two ’15 Finalists get together again on West Madison. But of course, as we know here, that doesn’t mean the Hawks are better off than the Bolts. The Hawks collected their 22 points in the Cirque de Stupid that is the Central Division and Western Conference as a whole, whereas the Lightning are trying to fight through the gauntlet of the Atlantic. And one of these teams did put up 128 points last year, while the other missed the lowest bar for the playoffs in years by a good distance. And not that much has changed.

That’s not to say everything is rosy in Tampa. They’re sitting just three points above the Eastern cellar, though only two points out of the last playoff spot. While watching the Lightning, or trying to measure them by various metrics, it’s kind of clear that there’s still a malaise from last spring hanging over and in this team. Nothing they do in the regular season is going to matter to anyone, but sadly with the division they’re in they can’t play the whole regular season like it doesn’t matter. Which is kind of what they’ve been doing. Other than their power play, which has reached that “self aware” level, everything else is just meh. Right in the middle of the league.

The Lightning still score, as their overall goals-per-game and even-strength goals per game are in the top five. With the king of marksmen like Kucherov and Stamkos and Point and others, they don’t need to dominate possession to get the scoring they need. Which is good, because they aren’t. Their possession and expected goals numbers re firmly middle of the pack. Again, they can get away with that given the talent for long stretches, but it’s not ideal long-term.

Especially as they may not get the PDO balance at the other end right now. When picking through the rubble of last season’s meltdown in the first round, it was hard not to start with Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s .856 SV%. Anyone can have a bad four games of course, but any big save from Vas in at least Games 1 or 2 could have pivoted that series. The Bolts never got one. That hangover seems to have carried over to this season, where he’s carrying a .906. The Hawks will get the backup tonight, as Curtis McElhinney will take the start.

And that’s probably the biggest factor for the Bolts to get back on track, because they don’t give up a ton of great chances. They’re not among the league’s best, but comfortably in the top half. If Vas can get back to .915 or better, everything should be fine in Tampa.

It also might not hurt the Lightning that they’ve only played seven home games so far, and after this one tonight 14 of their next 17 will be in Tampa. You wouldn’t be shocked by a charge up the standings before New Year’s.

To the Hawks, who could or could not be with Andrew Shaw tonight. He didn’t practice yesterday so they’re going to see how he shows up tonight. If he doesn’t go, the Hawks will dress all seven d-men as they don’t have an extra forward at the moment with Drake Caggiula in a dark room somewhere (my whole life is a dark room…). Every time in the past the Hawks have tried the 7-D look it has gone horribly, and everyone bitches to high heaven about it after. I still think it should be something they try more often and with Boqvist involved, if only to shelter him and Seabrook better. It also provides extra shifts here and there for Kane, Toews, Saad, Dach, DeBrincat, which is a good thing. But what do I know? I’m just a drunk in the rain. Corey Crawford will be your starter.

The Hawks got embarrassed twice by the Lightning last year, though no scoreline truly reflects it. This was the opponent that put up 30 shots in a period on them at the United Center last time around. Quite simply, the Hawks aren’t built to deal with this kind of skill and speed. And really, neither of those things have changed.

The difference, albeit small, between what the Hawks saw on Tuesday and what they’ll get tonight is the Lightning defense isn’t as consistently mobile as Carolina’s. Sure, Hedman and Kirk ShattenKevin are, and Sergachev and Cernak are too. But Sergachev can get wayward when under pressure, and whether it’s Schenn or Rutta joining him that can be exploited. So can Ryan McDonagh on the second pairing. Whereas the Hawks couldn’t get behind Carolina’s last line, they can on this one.

Which means some other d-men besides Connor Murphy have to get the puck out of the zone as quickly as possible to get the defense to back up, which in turn will give everyone more room to breathe. As we saw last year, when the Hawks try their 17-pass breakout, the Lightning’s plus-plus speed at forward and on the forecheck swallows them whole and spits them back out inside out. There just isn’t time for that, at least not until you back them up by proving you can and will stretch the ice.

It’s a rough part of the schedule, as the Hawks again get one of the better teams in the league, whatever the standings say, before two with the hottest team in the league and then two with maybe the best team in the division. But if you want to go somewhere, you can’t always take the path of least resistance.

Hockey

Game #22 – Lightning vs. Hawks Spotlight: The Coach You Should Want

By Sam Fels 1554 0

Sometimes your aimless speculation turns into reality. You should probably just accept the good fortune that makes you look prescient instead of questioning the randomness of the fates.

Yesterday, Mike Babcock was fired, which started a flicker that could turn into a full out flame of wondering and soon rumors that he could find his way to Chicago. If the Hawks were to fall on their face at any point this season and miss the playoffs by a huge margin, Jeremy Colliton‘s position would certainly be awkward if not untenable. Babcock’s name has cache, would command respect immediately from the main vets in the room (three of whom have played for him at the Olympic level), and at least provide a floor of professionalism and structure.

It would also be the wrong move.

We broke down why it would be on the podcast, so let’s shift the focus. We’ve had a lot of fun with Jon Cooper around here (a lot of fun), but what that doesn’t change is that he’s a very good coach. Perhaps the leader in the “Not A Moron” category in our binary system of rating coaches around the league.

The Lightning have never finished with less than 94 points under his watch, now in its 7th season. The one year they missed the playoffs, Steven Stamkos played just 17 games, Ben Bishop was hurt as well and Andrei Vasilevskiy was making his first foray into being a starter. And they still gathered 94 points. He was the captain on the ship that gobbled up 128 points last year.

Moreover, Cooper has been able to integrate and develop a wave of young talent to turn the Lightning into a power. First it was the Triplets of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat, with the middle guy there becoming an MVP. Of late it’s been Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde and Mikhail Sergachev and Eric Cernak. He knows how to put people in the places they will have the best chance of succeeding. And he plays an up-tempo, get up the ice style that meshes with what the NHL is these days.

Mike Babcock does none of these things.

However, Babs’s name will carry more weight because of the trophy cabinet, a mark Cooper has yet to make. Two conference finals, a Final appearance, and all were lost to modern dynasties by the tightest of margins (yes, it’s a stretch to call the Caps that, but their decade-spanning stay atop their division certainly makes them one of the teams of the era). No other coach around is matching that aside from Mike Sullivan in Pittsburgh of late, aside from one Joel Quenneville.

Which you might think would make it pure fantasy that Cooper could even get fired, let alone come to Chicago. But is it? Along with that record-breaking season last year comes the weight of the embarrassing first-round collapse. And as the malaise from that has carried over into this season, one wonders how much the pressure is already ramping up. The enduring image of Cooper at the moment are his exclamations of “This is our chance!” during Game 4 in Columbus last year when an offsides challenge had canceled out a Jackets goal.

Really? You had the greatest team of the modern era, or at least the best regular season, and this is what you need to get past a team 35 points behind you in the standings? Clearly, it wasn’t their chance.

Cooper has to wear that, though there isn’t anything a coach is going to do about a goalie who puts up an .856 SV% over four games. Still, the Lightning seemed to freeze in the headlights after a Game 1 loss.

Which isn’t fair, because Cooper has playoff success on his resume, which means he’s instilled a confidence and fight in his team before. Couldn’t it just be an anomaly?

Still, this Lightning team is now as Cup-or-bust as it gets. And sitting second-last in the Atlantic probably isn’t what the front office had in mind when they basically held the line on personnel this summer (as they should have). Could they get itchy? Could they conclude something broke last spring and only a new voice will snap the players over that hurdle? Not so outlandish, is it?

Should it happen, the Hawks should be all over Cooper. Maybe he doesn’t carry the cache of Babcock, but you know what? He’s the better coach. If you’re a Hawks fan hoping for a seismic change behind the bench, this is the one you want.