Hockey

Game #40 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Preview: Buckeye Mourning

By Sam Fels 1301 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 16-17-6   Jackets 17-14-7

PUCK DROP: 4pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SNAPPING TURKS?: Jackets Cannon

For once, it won’t be the Hawks making the locals sad and despondent. The Hawks will head into a city-wide black veil in Columbus as the place mourns the death of another Ohio State season, because Columbus is creepy and weird and strangely southern and no one needs it. Some will try and ease their pain by watching the only pro team in town take on whatever it is the Hawks are these days.

It was supposed to be a disaster of a season for the Jackets. The departures of Mssrs. Panarin, Duchene, Dzingel, and Bobrovsky were supposed to leave them bereft of any identity, strip them of any goaltending, flatten out their offense, and leave them facing yet another rebuild for an organization that’s seen just a little too many of those. It hasn’t worked out that way quite yet. That’s because for all his self-celebratory bluster and nonsense this is probably where John Tortorella is at his best–getting the best and more out of an unheralded bunch. Recall his Rangers teams only really had star power in net, and yet they were frequent visitors to the later rounds of the playoffs.

It did come to fruition that the Jackets don’t score much, 26th in goals per game. But like a true Torts team, they defend well and are getting goaltending, mostly through blocking a fuck ton of shots. The Jackets are middling at best when it comes to attempts against per game, but in the top five when it comes to shots against. Hence their overall expected goals share is pretty good, especially for a team where you couldn’t pick their first line out of a crowd if they were all nude and painted blue.

The Jackets have also survived a raft of injuries, with Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Ryan Murray, Markus Nutivaara, and Josh Anderson missing out today and Zack Werenski and a few others missing time earlier in the season. You know it’s bad when Nathan Gerbe is suiting up for your side.

The goaltending hasn’t crashed down around their ears like expected. The Jackets are getting top-ten SV% at evens, and Joonas Korpisalo is carrying a .913 overall. He’s been decent shorthanded as well, so that isn’t why the Jackets are currently out of the playoff spots, as their six points out of a wildcard and eight from an automatic spot.

It’s the lack of firing talent that’s keeping them back. Especially without Atkinson, who murders the Hawks with his speed and has done for far too long now, there just isn’t any top line scoring here. They may claim it’s supposed to be Pierre-Luc Dubois and his superfluous first name, but without Panarin he just hasn’t looked it. If Jones and Werenski aren’t filling the net on the power play as they did two years ago, they’re short of goals.

That doesn’t mean the Jackets won’t be a continued headache for the Hawks. They’re still filled with speed that works hard because they have to, and are coming off a win in DC which are something of a collector’s item these days. So they’ll be feeling themselves. They keep it pretty simple, which is just fine against the Hawks as their defense is happy to give you things.

For the Hawks, Adam Boqvist will return to the lineup, and they’ll need his mobility if he’s given license to use it. Robin Lehner is likely to get a stretch of starts here, as Crawford has stumbled and this might be something of a last stand for the Hawks before they decide if it’s fire-sale time.

They’ll talk about consistency and doubling up on Thursday’s effort. But that’s their thing, and they’re not good enough to keep putting those kinds of games together. Also, they won’t be facing a team that flew in that morning after a Christmas break. But that’s the assignment.

Hockey

Game #40 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Spotlight: You Don’t Know What It Is, Do You Mr. Jones?

By Sam Fels 1144 0

It’s still stunning to see that Seth Jones is 25 years old. It feels like forever ago he was anchoring a US World Junior win in 2013, and maybe that’s because seven years can be forever. The following spring he was the consensus #1 pick, but somehow slipped to 4th for Nashville (though one would have to say that MacKinnon and Barkov going ahead of him didn’t work out badly for the Avs and Panthers, respectively. Drouin third, however….)

Two seasons later Jones was terrorizing the Hawks in the first round. You forget it now, given how the rest of those playoffs went, but if Pekka Rinne had not been facing the wrong way most of the series the Hawks very well might have gone home at the first hurdle. And Jones was magnificent, with four points in four games and some utterly dominant games. The fear was that Brandon Saad would be running into Jones for a decade or more six times or more a year. Of course, within a couple months, they’d be teammates the following season.

And Jones has been good to excellent his entire stay in Columbus. He formed a definitive #1 pairing with Zach Werenski that anchored the Jackets to three straight playoff appearances, the first time the organization had ever managed that. Aside from Sergei Bobrovsky, you’d have to say those two are the main reasons for it, given the lack of much the Jackets have ever had at forward.

Still, the thought a few years ago was that Jones would contend for a few Norris Trophies and have a decent chance at winning one. He’s only come close once, two years ago when he just missed out on being a finalist. And there’s still time. The next few years are the prime window for a player, and one where we’ve seen Victor Hedman or Drew Doughty break through. Maybe the time is coming for Jones.

Yet it still feels like there was another level Jones was going to get to that he hasn’t yet. He doesn’t have a 60-point season. He doesn’t have a truly dominant metric season, or really one that rises too much above what his team has done as a whole. Given how he skates and passes, you’d think there would be one. He only has two seasons of more than 10 goals from the back, and he’s got a more than acceptable shot. You rarely watch a Jackets game and notice Jones simply taking it over, and more just look at the stat sheet after and see what he’d done.

Is that what’s kept the Jackets from ever really being among the contenders? That’s probably unfair. A lack of true top scoring until Panarin was joined by Matt Duchene last year feels like the main culprit. Maybe some defensive depth. You can win with Jones on the top pairing, you would just need more help than they’ve gotten.

Which puts the Jackets at a weird nexus. Just how long do they think it’s going to take to be good again? And who are they building that team around? Pierre-Luc Dubois is on that list. Werenski too. Possibly Alex Wennberg. Maybe Oliver Bjorkstrand, but that’s short of anything.

Jones will have two years left on his deal after this season, and as we know around here you need to cash in big pieces when yo have them if you’re going to start over. Are the Jackets starting over? It’s got to be on the table. Jones’s trade value would probably never be higher than at this upcoming draft, which could land the Jackets a few high prospects/picks or more. It should. Could you start over with that?

The Jackets almost certainly will never consider it, but they have no bigger piece to try and get more spins at the wheel. Jones will be 28 when he hits unrestricted free agency. They will likely just hand him the seven or eight years at whatever rate he wants. Should they? You can see how those deals go. Will the Jackets be ready to play for real again in just two years? Can they risk losing yet another player simply walking out to find more profitable and promising pastures?

It would take some serious stones, and some serious foresight and honesty about what the Jackets actually are. But it might be the quickest route back to where they want to go.

Hockey

Game #40 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, And Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1056 0

Nick Foligno = Still living off the one 30-goal season he put up five years ago in Ohio that he’s never come close to again. One of the many who’s thought to be 25% better than he actually is (at least) because he’s a former player’s kid. Foligno is the type who endears himself to the fanbase of a perennially unimportant team because he happened to be there for a while while they sucked. They get fooled into not seeing that he’s the exact type of player you need to upgrade from to get better. “Oh he cares so much,” or “He’s a leader” is always code for “not very good but starts a lot of scrums.”

David Savard – It only feels like he’s been a million years, and he’s not even 30 yet. We’re going to go ahead and say that any Jacket still here from the time the Hawks were in the same division sucks. Foligno, Savard…well, not Atkinson but whatever. Point remains.

Ryan Murray – This was a rumored Hawks target over the summer. He probably would have been better than Maatta…for the five minutes he’s upright. You’ll never believe this, but he’s hurt again and won’t play tonight.

Football

Week #17 – Bears vs. Vikings Preview: Escorted Out By Al Bundy

By Sam Fels 3348 0

vs.

RECORDS: Bears 7-8   Vikings 10-5

KICKOFF: 12pm

TV: Fox

READY TO BE KICKED IN THE NUTS AGAIN: Daily Norseman

It was only a year ago that the season ended in the same exact spot with just about the opposite feeling. The Bears marched up to Minneapolis, with nothing to play for essentially as the Rams were up big by the 2nd quarter to eliminate any chance of grabbing a playoff bye. The Vikings however, had everything to play for, needing to win to get into the playoffs. And the Bears used their face to mop the floor simply because they felt like it, because they wanted to. It really felt like they were on to something then, that it was just the beginning. After all, a team that does that simply for the sheer joy of it must’ve been capable of so much more.

One scared playoff game, one missed kick, and a broken coach and QB later and now it feels like that game might as well have taken place in another dimension. Of course, the funny thing to think about is if the Bears had rested everyone, let the Vikings in, would they have simply kicked their ass again a week later on the Lakefront? How would that have changed things? Rather pointless to think about in the end, but you can’t let it go completely, can you?

Either way, the Bears will slink off the stage tomorrow after a dead rubber against the Vikings. Minnesota is locked in as the 6th seed, preparing to watch Kirk Cousins embarrass himself in Green Bay, or Seattle, or New Orleans. Take your pick. So they’ll be resting everyone who matters, making it unclear what the Bears can get out of this other than a win that makes the record look a little better. And hopefully no major injuries to carry over into training camp or something.

The Bears are intent on playing the full team, or at least the one they have. The long-term casualties are still out. You get the impression if the Bears had even been representative last week, not even won necessarily but played well, they might treat this as a time-filler as well. But last week so helpless and sad, they probably can’t end the season with two of those. The offseason will be long and unpleasant enough without that kind of stench hanging over it. Or at least they can fool themselves into thinking there’s less stench.

Maybe 8-8 looks way better to them than 7-9. The difference in draft position won’t matter all that much, they’ll be entrenched in the middle of the second round either way. There won’t be any answers tomorrow, and those won’t come for a few months. The post-mortems have already started.

It’s funny, there have been far worse Bears teams in recent memory. But rarely has a season been this unenjoyable. Even the wins were whiskey-dick experiences. Only the one in Denver due to its excitement and the still very much present hope that was around in just Week 2, the first Vikings game, and the Cowboys win were ones you could get excited about. Feel good about. Washington was what was supposed to happen. The two over the Lions were far harder than they needed to be. The Giants suck. When were you excited to watch the Bears past September?

So we’ll dispose of this season tomorrow, slamming its head into the wall before throwing it out the door, cursing its presence in our lives at all and hoping to never see the likes of it again. We probably will. It’s the Bears after all. But at least there will be time to cleanse.

Football

Week 17 – Bears vs. Vikings QB Spotlight: Chilling Vision Of The Future?

By Sam Fels 1411 0

The Bears won’t get to see Kirk Cousins Sunday. Because the Vikes have nothing to play for, they’re the 6th seed who will get murdered by the any of the Packers, Saints, or Seahawks. Which is unfortunate, because seeing Kirk Cousins is usually high comedy. Until now, because it might be what’s coming for the Bears.

You probably know the records by now. Cousins is 6-30 against teams with winning records. 0-9 on Monday night. Not much  better in other primetime games. Whenever the Vikings need Cousins to be good, he’s been terrible. This includes last year’s finale when they needed to beat a Bears team that essentially had nothing to play for. And the Bears whacked him around simply because they felt like it.

Cousins changed the narrative around him a bit after the first Bears games this year, where once again the Bears sat on his head without Akiem Hicks. He threw 22 TDs and just two INTs before last week. There was some hope in Minneapolis that maybe he’d turned a corner. And then he took a big shit against the Packers on Monday night, ending the Vikes’ hopes for the division, once again puking it up against a good team, and the Vikings are left with all the same questions.

And this could be the Bears’ future. Not Cousins, of course, as he’s slotted to make all the money in the world for one more season yet. But if the Bears decide to move on from Mitch Trubisky, and that’s still a rather sizable if, they choices from there are of the same ilk of Cousins. Andy Dalton? He has the same amount of playoff wins that you do. Cam Newton? One Super Bowl appearance that he pissed down his leg in and one other playoff win where he didn’t even break 200 yards and both of those were five years ago. Teddy Bridgewater? Way more questions than answers. Phillip Rivers and his arm that was 107 years old when he was 25?

All could be steadier than Trubes, that’s for sure. And maybe steady is all the Bears need that figures to be at or near having a contender-level defense next year (especially with a healthy Hicks). But you’d be asking QBs to do things they haven’t proven they can do or haven’t done in a very long time. How’s that working out for the Vikings, who in the Cousins era will have one wildcard berth and a playoff tonking to show for it?

Bears fans should know that once you get on the QB carousel, it’s really hard to get off of it. Maybe you draft someone in the second or third round you really like and hope they just provide competition for Trubisky, thereby still keeping your QB costs down so you can have the rest of the roster in place. That’s the other thing about the names available. They’ll still cost a lot. Cousins himself has a $31M hit next year. Any of the others really coming that much cheaper?

Maybe paying $9M with reasonable competition through the draft doesn’t sound so bad here.

Hockey

Game #39 – Islanders vs. Hawks Spotlight: Trotz-ky And Korn-ucopia

By Sam Fels 1362 0

It’s a pretty easy narrative to create around Barry Trotz. He shows up to your team, you become very hard to beat, he gets results, but there’s a limit to it. And there’s an even stricter limit on the entertainment value of your team. The former limit got blown apart with the Capitals’ Cup win two years ago. But then the Caps perhaps didn’t think that much of it, or Trotz’s part in it to be more specific, opting to let Trotz walk to the Islanders right afterward.

The idea has always been that Trotz will make you defensively solid, and with that base you can only ever be so bad and it’s not that hard to be good. But…is that really what’s happening? Let’s look.

In Trotz’s two seasons on The Island/Brooklyn, the Islanders have only been a middling to ok defensive team. They’re 18th in attempts against over these two campaigns, 10th in shots-against, 12th in xGA against. They are third in scoring-chances against, so they limit those well. But what they do lead in by some margin is save-percentage, at .935 at even-strength over this season and a half. So that’s what they do exceedingly well.

In Trotz’s last two seasons in Washington, the Caps were 8th in attempts-against, seventh in shots-against, but 19th in xGA against and 20th in scoring chances against. But they were 3rd in save-percentage, at .930. Trotz’s first two seasons in DC, which saw a couple of 100-point seasons and a 120-point season, are a slightly different story: 13th in attempts-against, fifth in shots-against,  fifth in xGA, 15th in scoring chances-against, but 15th in save-percentage.

When Trotz washed out of Nashville with two playoff-less campaigns, these rankings stayed just about the same except they had one of the worst save-percentages in the league thanks to Ol’ Shit Hip’s meandering ways at the time. So Trotz does construct defensively sound teams, just not dominating ones. It’s the goalies who seem to thrive. But is that on Trotz or his goalie coach Mitch Korn, who follows him everywhere?

Braden Holtby was good before Trotz and Korn arrived, with a couple of .920 seasons. He became a Vezina winner with them. When he faltered, Philip Grubauer had his best season which earned him a trade to be Colorado’s starter. Tomas Greiss had one .920 season before Trotz and Korn showed up. He now is working on his second consecutive with a Jennings Trophy in the bag. Robin Lehner had flashed before in Ottawa and Buffalo, but then went .930 last year. Semyon Varlamov nearly won a Vezina in Colorado but went up and down with each passing season. He’s at .919 now along with Greiss as the Islanders haven’t really missed Lehner at all.

So is it Korn or Trotz that you’re hiring? Certainly Rinne rebounded post-Trotz, Lehner is doing just fine, and Grubauer is chugging along. Maybe the lessons they learned under Korn stick forever. And if they’re a package deal and they get these results, certainly Trotz and Korn are worth having around.

And it’s unlikely we’ll ever truly know, and Korn isn’t going to go work for someone else. But someone should probably throw a bucket of money at him to be their goalie coach, just like a prized pitching coach. Because goaltending is just as important as pitching, is it not?