All stats at even-strength unless noted.
Key: Expected Goals – goals team should have scored and surrendered given neutral goaltending based on amount and types of chances created and surrendered
Time On Ice Percentage – Percent of even-strength time
Off. Zone Start Ratio – Percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
Game #19 Preview
All stats at even-strength and adjusted for score and venue.
Game #19 Preview
Oh look at this, I do still have a log-in for this site! How about that?
By now you probably realize though, I’m not here to talk about hockey (Sorry? You’re welcome?). I’m here to discuss some beer. So what should you be drinking this week? Well even though the snow from Friday has melted away, it’s still getting colder and we’re seeing less and less of the sun… so what better than something dark? This week’s beer is from one of my favorite local breweries, Off Color. With all the aforementioned seasonal changes they have released their lovely Kottbusser, called Scurry, back into the world. Now I’m imagining your first question – what the hell is a Kottbusser? That’s a damn good question. Lets talk about Off Color a little bit first.
Started in 2013, Off Color quickly got on my radar. Not only because I used to work with one of the owners and was friends with the other but because right from the start they were doing something incredibly different. I’ve had many conversations with folks who aren’t fans of hoppy beers. These people are wrong but there’s certainly something to their argument that every brewery always has an IPA and/or Pale Ale. Off Color goes against all that. They set out to make beers no one else was making and quite often they make beers that no one else has heard of at all. Hoppy brews are great. They basically pay my rent and keep me stocked up with comic books. But there’s something wonderful about a brewery something few if any other breweries are doing. (Shoutout to Metropolitan too for that by the way).
Now – what’s a Kottbusser? I had no idea either when they first made it. It’s an older and almost extinct German style. It’s dark, malty.. but it’s not an Alt. It’s brewed with honey and molasses to add more fermentable sugars to the beer. Now those won’t add any sweetness to the finished beer, it actually finishes very dry, but they’ll certainly change the body a bit. The flavor is smooth, nutty, toasty with a touch of chocolate and fruits. It’s fantastic. For an extra treat, look to try a Nitro version for an even smoother experience.
As of very recently, you can go drink their beers at their new taproom as well. Go bother them at The Mousetrap, 1460 N. Kingsbury – right by that gigantic Whole Foods. No, not the new gigantic Whole Foods, the other gigantic Whole Foods.
Don’t worry, I’m not going to talk you off your love Brandon Saad. I love Brandon Saad. Everyone does. I know that when we write a post about a player, we’re pretty much greeted like the Turk asking you to bring your playbook. But that’s not this. Still, it’s probably time to look at what’s going on here.
Brandon Saad has seven goals on the season, which leads the Hawks. But that’s a touch misleading. Four of those came in the season’s first two games. Two of the three following goals came in overtime, where 3-on-3 doesn’t really tell you what the player is providing night in, night out. It would be easier if these goals were not counted toward a season total, but that’ll never happen so let’s just roll with it.
So what’s going on here? Is it a lack of chances? No, it doesn’t appear so. Since the first two games of the season, Saad has had 49 shots in 16 games. That’s over three per game, which is actually way over Saad’s average of two per game (at even strength, by the by). Saad’s career-high in shots per game at evens in 2.23, which came in the ’15 year, his last in Chicago before trade. So as far as volume, there’s nothing off here and in fact it’s been as good as it’s ever been. The 6.1 SH% the past 16 games would seem to be highly to blame. If you want to go by rates, Saad is putting up 11.4 shots per 60 minutes at evens, which is a career-high and by some distance.
When talking about types of chances, this is where we see a dip, but only slight. On the year, Saad is averaging 2.1 scoring chances per game. But if you remove the first two games, when he had eight scoring chances all to himself, it drops to 1.8 chances per game. Again, this isn’t ridiculous or anything, but it’s just above noticeable. If you boil it down to just high-danger chances, Saad has averaged 1.2 per game two seasons ago, 1.06 last year and 1.05 this year per game. But take out the first two games, and it’s down to 0.87.
So Saad is something of a microcosm of the whole team. He’s getting the attempts, number-wise, that he usually does. But they’re not quite coming from the areas that you want them to as often as you want them to, and hence his shooting percentage is going down. It’s gone down more than you’d expect, so certainly some luck is involved as well.
The inclination is to portion some of the blame to his linemates, which have changed from time to time but basically has been Jonathan Toews and Richard Panik. And yes, if you were to look at the very small sample with Patrick Kane, Saad generates 15 shots per 60 with Kane as opposed to 10 with Toews and Panik. His individual attempts go from 15.2 with Toews and Panik to 23.2 with Kane. His individual scoring-chances leap up by a third as well when skating with Kane. Again, limited sample but also not a huge surprise, because this is what Kane does.
On the other side of this debate, is that given the physical skill-set of Saad, you would’t think he’s someone who needs a playmaking center or winger to dominate. Saad should create enough of his own shots, given how he can simply muscle through whatever he wants. Saad is in the top tier of the league when it comes to individual attempts per 60, but he’s 32nd. You wouldn’t call that elite. Among just left wings he’s 9th, which is better, and right in between Panarin and Hall which is a good place to be. Scoring chances among left-wingers he’s seventh, he’s just ahead of Max Pacioretty. So it’s not worth worrying about.
All of this then becomes another referendum on Jonathan Toews again. When Saad’s numbers jump up so high with Kane, and things flatten out so much with Toews, one has to wonder if Toews’s decline from 2016 is quite simply permanent. Or at least if the expectations and usage of Toews need to be adjusted.
Either way, the Hawks need more goals in the 60 minutes from Saad. But let’s give it another 10-15 games before we head for battle stations.
Your Intrepid Nephews are all back in one place this week to discuss whatever the hell is going on with this team, how the Hockey Hall Of Fame is a joke, and a back half of the episode that veers off the rails pretty quickly. Get some after the jump.
The Hawks are officially off to their worst 18-game start to a season since 10-11* (not 09–10; thanks, Feather). That team this is not, but hope springs eternal. Let’s look at how we got here.
Alex DeBrincat: Since we last did this, Kitten Mittons has been a point per game player, thanks in part to his utter explosion in Carolina. Of course, it would be fitting that DeBrincat would find the handle on everything after Q put him on both the right side and the 4th line, even if DeBrincat did most of his scoring away from that gulag. He still has his moments where he doesn’t finish a shot or makes a curious pass, but you can see the instincts coming out with each game. One thing I especially love about watching him is that he’s got a knack for positioning. His giveaways to takeaways is a +4 right now (8 GA to 12 TA), so while he may be diminutive, it’s possible that he’s got some defensive smarts blooming. Couple that with the dynamism he’s starting to show and baby, you got a stew goin’.
Nick Schmaltz: It’s entirely possible I’m still rolling on the vapors of that obscene backhand, through-the-defender’s-legs Royal Road pass he served to DeBrincat yesterday (which DeBrincat just couldn’t finish), or really everything Schmaltz did yesterday, but here we are. Of course, many of Schmaltz’s highlights recently have come off the wing, because why not, but coming off an early injury, Schmaltz has been the silk that lines DeBrincat’s Kitten Mittons. He’s running a solid 55.1 CF% through 14 games (1.3 CF% Rel), and now that he’s on the wing, it looks like he’s playing with more speed and less tentativeness. You still want to see him develop into the 2nd line center the Hawks have been searching for ad infinitum, but if moving to the wing is going to give us the Orange Ninja Turtle art Schmaltz has been providing, so be it.
Toews, Kane, Saad’s Shooting Percentages: Respectively, they’re sitting at 7.8 (-6.6% vs. career), 10.2 (-2.1%), and 11.9 (+0.1%). However, Saad’s is misleading: If you remove the first two games, he’s sitting at 5.5% (-6.3%). On top of that, he carried a six-game pointless streak along with a 10-game goalless streak, and has seemed to struggle to pot chances close in. My love for Saad knows no bounds, but even I’m getting itchy watching him struggle to score. I’ve talked about my worries about Toews’s shooting woes becoming a trend, but these are the three guys whom you expect to lead the scoring charge, which would partially explain the Hawks’s scoring drought. While it’s great to see Schmaltz and DeBrincat starting to get a handle on it, these are the guys the Hawks are going to need to do more of the heavy lifting if they want to make the playoffs.
The Power Play: This is admittedly lazy and redundant, since, like Seabrook, we could probably always get away with putting the PP here. But I can’t remember any of the past iterations of the Hawks’s PP being this gruesome. They currently sit at 27th in the league, and that’s with the two PP goals they scored at the Chuck E. Cheese sugarfest at the UC last night. You’ve undoubtedly become familiar with the clarion calls for MORE MOVEMENT and SHOOT DA PUCK, and this time, it doesn’t reek of giardiniera-fart stink. The solution to this, apparently, is to put the most dynamic playmaker in Kane at the point and have the guy whose one job it is to QB the PP in Franson float around between the top of the circle and the blue line. There are a lot of potential solutions to this problem—such as continuing to let Kitten Mittons play on the PP at all—but this isn’t it.
Connor Murphy: Sample size is the only thing keeping him from being a Dizzying High this week. In the three games he’s played on his off side, Murphy scored his first goal, has taken four shots (versus 11 through his first 12), and has looked a lot more aggressive and confident, which is a big deal, given his propensity to lose his confidence at times. Even more promising have been his shot-share percentages, which, since taking over the left side, have come in at 65+, 43, and 60. That 43 CF% looks out of place, doesn’t it? That was the Carolina game, in which Murphy played just north of 11 minutes. Would you like to guess whom he played more than half of his time with in that one? I’ll give you seven guesses, and the first six don’t count.
Folks, I have to enter into a few moments of honesty here. Firstly, I – like the Blackhawks – was not fully invested in this game when it started. Secondly, I turned the game off for good when the Devils tied it up, because I assumed (correctly) that meant they were going to win. Thirdly, I don’t want to talk about this game because it was stupid, and friend of the blog Aaron has made me feel bad about it. So I’m going to be brief. Thanks for understanding.
All at even-strength except where noted. All adjusted for score and venue.
All analytic stats at even-strength
Well, I’m happy to report that I pulled off the motherfuck on Twitter tonight and the Hawks managed a comeback win (or maybe Carolina snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but who cares?).
– It was looking like Brandon Saad was actually just a human, until overtime that is. He missed a penalty shot in the first with a questionable shot location to Darling’s glove side; he had a shitty turnover on a power play in the second where he just managed to bail himself out with a good poke check; and he missed an open net on yet another power play later in the second. But it turns out all of that was just building up the drama to his OT winner, via a beautiful pass from DeBrincat.
– And let’s talk about Top Cat. When he was on the ice with Toews and Panik, he scored. When he was on the ice with Kane and Kero, he scored. When he was on the ice with Lance fucking Bouma he did nothing ARE YOU SEEING A PATTERN HERE. I actually thought his first goal was a PP goal and I was all excited that we scored finally on the power play, but no, I was blinded by the pass from Toews and didn’t realize the penalty had expired. Point being that having DeBrincat on the power play, and having him out there with top talent, will lead to him doing what he’s meant to do. I realize that Q is doing everything he can to sabotage this kid and justify getting rid of him—whether that means sending him down or who knows what the fuck else—but Top Cat is making it impossible and I couldn’t be happier about it.
– Forsling scored to tie the game, so that’s…good…and yet…he’ll play forever now. Granted yes, of course it was a huge relief when they tied it, but in the first Forsling ended up with Seabrook and it led directly to the first Carolina goal. It’s easy to pin that one on Seabrook because it was his shitty positioning and lack of awareness (or inability to move fast enough) that allowed the goal to happen, but still, the two of them shouldn’t ever be responsible for defending anything, and now the new pet has proven all of Q’s assumptions with his first goal, and Kempny will never get out of the Sarlaac pit.
– Speaking of allowing goals to happen, Forsberg had a rather shitty night again. Now, in all fairness I do think that first goal was Seabrook/Forsling’s fault, and the third one was a bit of a fluky shot, but still. He definitely should have had the second goal (and probably the third too). He had some decent positioning but all too often when it mattered, he was moving uncomfortably all over the place. He was lucky to get this win. It may be time to see what Berube or whatever the hell that guy’s name is can do as the back-up. I’m not totally ready to give up on Forsberg yet, but I’m damn close. I just wonder if the organ-I-zation is too.
– I get Movember and all, and obviously I support cancer awareness in any form, but man we are right in the midst of a creepy-douchebag-mustache parade. Anisimov is a prime offender, but the winner has to be Justin Faulk. That guy looked like he was straight out of that Twitter account Super 70s Sports.
– Another useless piece of information I learned tonight thanks to Konroyd was that Skinner Skinner Faster Than Lightning was a figure skater until he was 12. So there’s that.
This was an important win just because the Hawks desperately needed some points, and they needed to prove to themselves that they could come back from a deficit. So much the better that it happened on the road. And it’s nice they got their moms a win; it’s bad enough their moms had to travel to fucking Philly and Raleigh so it was the least they could do. It’s disappointing that the front office knows moms will put up with unending bullshit and so brought them along on a lame road trip, but whatever. Hopefully this will give them some momentum, however slight, and they can start crawling out this hole they’ve dug themselves into. Let’s get Crawford back in net tomorrow. Onward and upward.
