Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 12-9-4   Stars 14-10-1

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCS CHICAGO

WE GOIN’ HONKY TONKIN’: Defending Big D

The back half of a traditional, divisional home-and-home comes tonight in North Texas, with the Hawks looking to greatly improve on what was a pretty piss poor effort on Thursday. We knew fatigue would come into play somewhere in this hellacious five-in-seven stretch, and at least for the first two periods the Hawks looked leggy. They almost pulled it back in the 3rd, which shows you the flaws in this Dallas team, but their power play problems clipped their hopes.

Obviously, not much can change with these teams in just two days… unless it’s the Hawks and an injury to Corey Crawford puts their whole season teetering on the edge of the Great Abyss. Make no mistake, if Crow were to miss two to three weeks–as he very well might–and the Hawks have a complete balls-up during that, they could be utterly fucked without any of the customary fun before you’re singing Auld Lang Syne. Anton Forsberg has been better than his numbers suggest–that belch-with-barf in Denver skews things–but the Hawks in no way wanted to depend on him full-time this early in the season. Or at all. And J.F. Berube has a terminal case of being J.F. Berube. With his 21 games in the NHL and middling AHL numbers, the Hawks won’t want to break that glass unless it’s a total emergency. Yes, you should be uneasy.

The Stars also play tomorrow night in Denver, so there’s a chance that the Hawks could get a look at Kari Lehtonen tonight which would help the cause, or at least would be likely to. There look to be a couple lineup changes for the Stars as well. Curtis McKenzie was called up to write a sermon that no one will hear as Antoine Roussel has apparently picked up something, and I’m just going to go ahead and say some combo of syphilis and plague because I want to. Martin Hanzal will still miss out, and Julius HONKA! HONKA! won’t get in the lineup so they can keep trained ox Jamie Oleksiak in.

What’s a little worrisome is that with the matchup-advantage at home, the Hawks were still unable to keep Tyler Seguin’s line under control at all. So Hitch can be confident of throwing them out against Toews again and getting chances, or throwing them at the bottom six and having battle station alarms going off in the Hawks zone all night. Expect to see the Seguin line out against Forsling and Rutta at every chance, and don’t expect Q to chase matchups too much because he just doesn’t do it much in the regular season.

Even with Faksa’s and Janmark’s scratching the sheet on Thursday, with Spezza’s wrong-chalice-like decay and Hanzal’s injury, this is still pretty much a one-line team. The Hawks did keep them from scoring at least on Thursday… and lost anyway. So… not encouraging.

With Forsberg in net the Hawks might be tempted to play it a little safer on the road, keeping the third forward as high as possible and dropping their d-men back at the first hint of trouble. Hitch won’t take the foot off the gas too much at home and with the Hawks on the their back up ‘tender. He also won’t stand for the Stars racking up seven penalties again.

Not to keep beating a dead horse–and I don’t know why you keep bringing me down–but given how jammed up things are in the West wildcard picture and given how the strata in the Central have separated, the Hawks can’t afford to drop too many points to teams that are joining them in this mud-covered rabble. They got a point against the Stars last out but really can’t give them more than the two they already did. It’ll be hard to lose touch, but it’ll also be even harder to make up ground. Getting to overtime is something of a loss. Need a regulation win here.

 

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We know that the coverage and view of Russian players in the NHL can get a tad skewed due to some very outdated and quite simply jingoistic feelings. Due to some bad actors, much more than should have have had to deal with suspicion and being labeled lazy, greedy, uncaring, and weak, or all of the above. And really, there are no more players from Russia who exhibit these characteristics than those who come from Canadian backwaters. But none of them are named “Gordie,” nor do they know what “Timbo’s” is, so they get treated differently

Alex Radulov has had a strange odyssey of a career, and he has been labeled with all of the above during it. Some of it may be warranted, maybe some of it not. Let’s go back through it.

You don’t remember, because it was so long ago and it took place before the Hawks got good which as we know was before hockey existed, but ten years ago Radulov put up 58 points at the age of 21 with the Predators. He was one of the most exciting prospects in the game. With Radulov, Suter, Weber, Rinne, Hamhuis, and Legwand it was thought that the Preds would be challenging for the Central for years to come.

It never worked out that way, partly because Radulov immediately fucked off back to Russia after that season. He still had one year on his entry-level deal, but clearly didn’t feel that as an RFA he was going to make what he could back in the KHL And that wasn’t wrong, but that didn’t stop the Preds and the NHL from putting up a fight to keep him here. It didn’t work, Radulov was suspended by Nashville and he spent the next four seasons in Russia.

Radulov didn’t help his cause much after that fourth seasons in Russia, when he came back to the help the Preds in the ’12 playoffs, but also didn’t make it much of a secret that he was just running out the last year of his entry-level deal. That was the spring he and a couple teammates were caught in a Glendale bar at 5am the night before Game 2 against the Coyotes, which didn’t make it seem like he was all that invested. Of course, the hockey media was all to ready to pounce on what appeared to be a carpetbagger, and one from the Motherland. Give them an inch…

Radulov again returned to Russia after that spring, as no one was terribly too interested in signing him after that whole ruckus. Radulov spent another four years with CSKA.

But after those four years Radulov could return to the NHL as a free agent, which again, didn’t look all that good. Still, no one in Montreal was complaining about his 54-point-season last year, nor are the Stars complaining about his point-per-game pace so far this one after he cashed in for a five-year deal at a cool $6 million per.

Certainly Habs fans didn’t think Radulov wasn’t committed, showing great passion on and off the ice. There were some who would claim it was all a show, and there was no way to know after what came before.

Perhaps the way young players are viewed is simply impossible for them, especially those from Europe. Every player is expected to have come over and dreamt of winning the Stanley Cup and put that over all, but is that realistic? Some do, some probably don’t. After all, to a lot of players the World Championships every year are a really big deal, and here they’re barely a ripple on the hockey calendar.

Secondly, even though it was negotiated and collectively bargained, young players are still put to the screws financially in the NHL. Only a select few make a ton of money after their entry-level deals, and thanks to what is in no way “collusion” we’re sure that prevents offer sheets, they have no leverage. Those that can at least threaten to take the serious money on offer across the pond have different leverage than others who don’t even think about it.

It a system that made sense, players would make what they’re worth basically as soon as possible. Given the money attached to the game, it isn’t a wonder or wrong that it becomes a major motivation for a player.

So is, or was, Radulov just a mercenary who took the highest paycheck he could find? Or did he just play the system that was on offer to him and do the best he could? We know what the view was from those who pen the articles. Given Radulov’s renaissance, that might not be the truth. Maybe it’s just a player who didn’t love the game here at a young age, went back to where he was comfortable and more rightly rewarded, and with age and maturity came back to accomplish more over here.

Or he just came back because it was time to make serious money here. We’ll never know.

Game #26 Preview

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Little bit of a departure for us this time, as we visit the baseball world for this one. Kate Morrison is one of the best baseball writers going, and you can find her work at Baseball Prospectus, FanRag Sports, and Brooks Baseball. She also happens to be a pretty rabid Stars fan, so we thought she might want to moonlight in our stupid little hockey world for a bit. Follow her on Twitter @unlikelyfanatic. 

The Stars have had something of the same wonky start that the Hawks have. Why hasn’t Hitchcock’s charms worked miracles yet (we’re not exactly Hitch fans, if you can’t tell)?
I mean, there’s a set of Stars fans who aren’t exactly Hitch fans, either. I was une petite infante when Hitch was last the Stars coach, so I can’t really tell you if this is more of the same. What I can tell you is that from my seat in the 300s in the American Airlines Center, I’ve seen both good and bad. Hitch said the right things to Tyler Seguin when Lindy Ruff wasn’t willing to, but Hitch also is addicted to playing Jamie Oleksiak, who isn’t even the best athlete with that last name. Hitch seems to have a willingness to test new lines when there’s chemistry (see the two-game pairing of Antoine Roussel and Alexander Radulov), but there’ve also been times when the team hasn’t seemed as able to run-and-gun as they used to. This is a young, fast team, and they need to be able to play young and fast.
Oh, and also, #FreeHonka or something.
On the plus side, John Klingberg is nearly a point-per-game, and his metrics have bounced back to where they were two seasons ago. He definitely had a dip last year, what’s been different this campaign?
He’s off the sophomore slump? Klingberg does seem to have some good chemistry with both the currently-injured Marc Methot and current partner Esa Lindell, but I think it’s mainly just confidence and being a year older. Having a steady partner can’t hurt, either. He’s really stepped up to becoming one of the team’s young leaders, though.
The Stars have a secondary scoring problem. Radulov, Seguin, Benn, and Klingberg all have over 20 points, but no one else has over 11. Who needs to pick it up?
 
We’re beginning to see some of the promised secondary scoring right now, but we’ve been teased before. Devin Shore and/or Brett Ritchie were supposed to be those secondary guys, but it’s been some surprises like Radek Faksa and Mattias Janmark who have really stepped up. No way of knowing that they’ll keep that up, or if they’ll pass the magical baton of scoring off to Shore or, heck, Roussel, but there might be some sparks of life.
We like to ask about our lost boy Stephen Johns. It felt like Lindy Ruff completely underrated him even while giving him human shield starts and competition. What does he look like under Hitch?
 
Um…better than Jamie Oleksiak? Better with Julius Honka? Better now than in the first few games of the season?

Ben Bishop has disappointed since coming over in the summer. What’s been his problem? Is the Dallas crease just cursed?

Like Taylor said, Bishop’s been visually better than his numbers. He’s also been let down by his defense quite a bit – we saw that just this Thursday, on the DeBrincat goal that Oleksiak is really more responsible for than Bishop. I think the numbers and the visuals will even out over time, but the Stars definitely aren’t where they are right now without Bishop.
Everything Else

It’s hard to find an angrier player than Jamie Benn. He skates angry. He hits angry. He scores angry. Even when he’s happy, he’s angry. Maybe he’s just got that face. Or maybe there’s something sinister under there.

So what is it, Jamie? Is it that you’ve been stuck in Texas for eight seasons now? Does it not jibe with your Canadian sensibilities? Did you dream of something else? Did you want to go home?

Or is it home that bothers you? That your hometown Canucks have become such a joke that you don’t even want to go home again? Does it poison your attitude that they’ve take that dream away from you? That must hurt.  You’ll never be a Canuck, Jamie. We’re sorry, and you’re better off that way. Do you really want those people throwing trash at you after another playoff exit?

Or is the sting too much that you’ve only played 19 playoff games? Never in the conference final? You’ve never even sniffed the ultimate prize. You very well might not. That’s ok, it happens to a lot of players. But hey, Ken Hitchcock will give great quotes to the press about it. Maybe you can find solace in that.

Something more, Jamie? Maybe we don’t want to know, then. There’s clearly something bubbling underneath the surface here. Just try and remember you’ve got a Gold Medal.  You scored the winner against the US in Sochi. That’s cool, right? The BBQ in Dallas is really out of this world. Remember that.And it doesn’t get cold. You don’t have to worry about winter. That’s a thing. It’ll add years to your life.

Or you can just keep knocking people over like they were balloons. That’s cool, too. But does it really make you happy, Jamie?

Game #26 Preview

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All stats at even-strength unless noted, and adjusted for score and venue. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

Game #26 Preview

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As most people know by now, I’m not a huge fan of “Kiss Cam.” But then again, I’m not really a fan of all the timeout entertainment, given how shrill and downright stupid it can be. And seeing as how I follow the Zappa school of “Love Is For Assholes,” Kiss Cam is particularly bothersome. But I accept it’s part of the American sports scene and isn’t going anywhere, and mostly just treat it as noise.

However, last night I was struck by yet another instance of the Hawks, or more to the point their gameday staff, unable to even get a finger in the wind. I don’t make every game like I used to, so I don’t know how long this has been going on. But now, Kiss Cam has an introduction from a young woman who has become something of the in-game, in-building host for all of their promotions. I can’t seem to find her name anywhere so if someone can help me via Twitter or email I’ll change this. Anyway, before Kiss Cam starts she approaches Tommy Hawk in a “Kissing Booth,” and well, you can pretty much figure out where it goes from there (he fixes the cable?). It’s nothing lurid, but it’s uncomfortable to watch this woman kiss a mascot.

I’m not sure what exactly the payoff here is supposed to be. Kiss Cam itself can be seen weird and somewhat creepy. And one day every arena is going to have to actually put a gay couple up there, but let’s save that discussion for another time.

In this current atmosphere, what exactly is gained by having this woman, clearly a little uncomfortable, kiss a mascot? And really, what is gained by having a mascot meant to entertain kids sexualized in any or slightest way? At best, it’s just awkward and weird. It could be viewed as something worse, and again there’s just no gain from it. It’s not funny, it’s not cute, it’s not anything but bad.

You’d think the NHL itself would want to put a stop to this, given that the Kings mascot is currently being sued for groping a woman, and we certainly don’t need to get into the litany of charges hurled at Benny the Bull for the bullshit he perpetrated in the very same building. You’d think someone in the Hawks organization would be aware of any of this, but then again we gave up on the Hawks have any kind of awareness long ago.

This clearly isn’t the first time the Hawks have tried to place their logo as the definition of “tone-deaf .”  (and boy could you examine that sentence for a while) And we don’t need to rehash all those instances that came before. But you’d have to be either incredibly stupid, naive, or worse uncaring to see all the stories and men in high places crashing down because of acting in an inappropriate or downright dangerous fashion toward female coworkers and think it’s all right to have this on camera in front of your home crowd. Again, what are the Hawks gaining from it? As silly as it might sound, the United Center is a workplace and on some level, those two are coworkers. Does anyone read or see the news in that place?

Usually, this is the part where I say it doesn’t matter because the Hawks are selling every seat. And that’s still true, but there are a lot more unfilled ones than there used to be. And I can’t help but notice that the t-shirt giveaways have tripled or more during timeouts, and I can’t help but wonder why that might be. Sure, the Hawks right now are only losing out on parking and concessions and merchandise sales when there’s only 18-19K in the building. But I’m willing to bet they’ve noticed. So why take a risk on anyone being offended, and rightly so, by this dumb sketch? Is it as bad as Ryan Kesler’s naked walk through the Ducks’ offices? No. But is it in the same genus? Yeah, sure is.

This really isn’t all that hard, and it’s hard to believe that no one anywhere in the building went to the gameday presentation staff and was like, “Uh, that’s not a good idea.” Hell, run it by us. We’ll do it for a beer (HA! A Wirtz giving away free booze! Let’s all sit on that one for a sec!) Why risk it? I really don’t know if the wave of disclosure of sexual harassment and assault is going to come to the sports world, I’m kind of skeptical it will given the different parameters and loyalty from the public. But if it does, why would you want this on your record? Why make this something of a gateway to what we know (or highly suspect) are a fuckton darker and worse actions that have happened from members of that organization?

As we know, the Hawks put the Ice Crew back in the mini-skirts after a season of trying to duck that controversy after it was brought up to them at the convention and they had them in pants for the following season. The Hawks and most of their fans may think things like this are hardly a risk or don’t put them anywhere near the line. They’re closer than they think and the wave might be coming. As my father used to say, “Mighty oaks from little acorns.”

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Kings vs. Capitals – 6pm

The road trip that will take the Kings through our little burg on Sunday sees them in the capital tonight to take on a still fits-and-starts Capitals team. They’ve won three in a row and four of the last five to get involved in the muck that is the Metro Division. The Kings are tied for 1st in the Pacific with the Knights, and they must really be getting annoyed with that by this point. They’ve played two more games than the Knights though, and the Sharks who are three points behind that. The Kings aren’t the insomnia-cure they were, and the Capitals are always fun.

Second Screen Viewing

Leafs vs. Oilers – 8pm

This has some real potential to be the last thing between us and enjoying a full out Oilers meltdown. The visit of the Leafs always brings more attention to any team, and more opposing fans in the building. If the Oilers shit it the natives are going to get awfully restless, especially as the Leafs are the team the Oilers thought they were emulating until this season actually started. Seeing as how neither of these teams really have a blue line worth noting and neither has a goalie playing all that well, the potential for a 5-4 or 6-5 is higher than normal. What you should be rooting for is the Oilers blowing a three-goal lead somewhere in hear, snatching away the hope for a revival it might have brought and throwing the whole organization into the depths and darkness of which there might not be an escape. And maybe they panic and trade for Seabrook.

Other Games

Canadiens vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Canucks vs. Predators – 7pm

Knights vs. Wild – 7pm

Coyotes vs. Flames – 8pm

 

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Stars 13-10-1   Hawks 12-8-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

LIVING IN DARYL REAUGH’S WORLD, HE JUST LEASES THEM A SMALL PART: Defending Big D

We’d call this “Hell Week” for the Hawks, except that term is usually derived from fraternity hazing rituals and fraternities and sororities are evil and stupid and really should be outlawed. If you have to pay for friends, you’ve got bigger problems. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED. The Hawks have their fourth game in six nights as they host the Stars in the first half of an old school, divisional home-and-home. These used to be a regular occurrence, and seeing one on the schedule causes you to involuntarily yell at Wendel Clark or Shane Churla while eating a personal Connie’s Pizza while standing. Our lives are very strange.

The Hawks will see a team exactly where they are on the other bench. Both teams occupy the wild card spots, both teams have 27 points, both teams are already losing sight of the Blues, Jets, and Predators ahead of them but can feel the garlic-y breath and clammy hands of a throng of teams clawing at them from below. The last three quarters of this season really could be a sordid dog pile, given how hard it is for teams to separate themselves in either direction in Gary Bettman’s AND-YOU-GET-A-CAR NHL. So these games do take on some importance, but only really if one team can manage to take all four points in regulation. Which, as we know, isn’t easy.

The Stars have had their issues this season. One is that Ben Bishop started really slowly, torpedoing some pretty solid underlying numbers for the team. Certainly Kari Lehtonen wasn’t any better, and the Stars lost some games they shouldn’t have.

Another problem for the Stars is their top-heavy ways. Early in the season the line of Jamie Benn-Tyler Seguin-Alex Radulov was a celestial being and piled up the points. But the Stars couldn’t get scoring from anywhere else, and the other three lines were essentially getting run over and this top unit was playing far too much. So Jabba The Hitch split them up, except no one could get on Seguin’s wavelength and hence they had the same problem. The Stars have been let down by a few young players failing to make THE LEAP, like Mattias Janmark and Radek Faksa and Brett Ritchie. Faska had a hat trick last game, so maybe he’s turning the corner. Free agent signing Martin Hanzal has also done dick, which wouldn’t come as a shock to anyone who’s watched Martin Hanzal ever. And now he’s hurt and won’t play tonight, moving Spezza back from wing to center.

The Stars also don’t have a very Hitch-like defense, a defense that will be without Marc Methot tonight, whatever that may mean. John Klingberg and Esa Lindell can really push the play, and Hitch seems inclined to let Stephen Johns and HONKA! HONKA! take the human shield shifts. Dan Hamhuis is just a third-pairing guy at this point, and Greg Pateryn is what you get when you ask Alexa for a typical 7th d-man. HONKA! HONKA! is supposed to be the supporting puck-mover behind Klingberg, so his time is now.

Still, it’s kind of an odd machine here. This is a team that’s still built to get up and go, but we know with Hitch that teams’ get up and go kind of get up and leave. He’s never going to be able to build a fortress of tedium with this roster, and it’s hard to believe he’ll change his spots (so many spots)  and let them off the leash in the same fashion that Ruff did. Nor should he, so he’s going to have to thread the needle of letting this Stars team play fast while trying to install a defensive structure on some players who have never seen one. That gets harder with the goaltending unable to perform miracles.

For the Hawks, Corey Crawford will return to the net and the lineup will remain the same. Keeping Seguin’s line from busting out the pyrotechnics and drum solos is paramount, and it’ll be interesting to see whom Q decides to do that with. Toews’s line? The 4th line he keeps batting eyelashes at? Keith? Murphy? Stay tuned. If whoever he decides does that, you’re more than halfway to beating this team.

 

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There have been plenty of reasons to laugh at Stars GM Jim Nill. Every offseason, he’s the darling of the hockey world because he’s always doing SOMETHING. But as Dan McNeil once told us, “Don’t mistake activity for achievement.” Or if you prefer, Nill has had quite the Shakesperean time as GM, full of sound and fury but signifying nothing.

The biggest failing of Nill’s has been the way he has completely mangled the Stars goaltending. To be fair to him, it was his predecessor Joe Nieuwendyk who signed Kari Lehtonen to a purely insane five-year extension for $5.9 million per year, a deal that Nill will get out from under after this season. Let-One-In had only one year of being anything above average before that extension, but Nieuwendyk bit anyway and saddled Nill with a Finnish millstone.

That didn’t mean Nill had to compile the mistake, but there’s nothing he can’t go overkill on if you let him. So he decided that paying one middling goalie an exorbitant salary was so much fun, he’d pay a bad one an exorbitant salary as well, but this time he’d get to pick it! So in came Antti Niemi, who proceeded to almost single-handedly torpedo their division-winning team in the postseason two years ago and then basically all of last year. Lehtonen certainly wasn’t going to bail them out, as you don’t try and put out a fire by throwing a dead cat at it.

Nill didn’t help matters by having Lindy Ruff as coach, whom always employs a system that leaves goalies exposed, helpless, lonely, and longing for the abyss. Even good goalies struggle with it, and you need look no further than Ryan Miller as evidence. So when Ken Hitchcock was hired, you best believe he was assured that Nill would improve the goaltending. Jabba The Hitch isn’t going to have his genius undermined by leaky goaltending, you’d best believe. That certainly never happened in St. Louis. Nope, nosiree bob.

The question then becomes is Ben Bishop really the answer? On the surface you’d be inclined to say yes, with two Vezina finalist seasons in three from ’14-’16. But those are the only standout seasons on Bishop’s resume, and even then they might be a touch misleading.

Hockey in general struggles for a tried and true system or way to evaluate goaltenders, which is quite strange considering their outsized importance to teams. Still, comparing a player’s save-percentage and their expected save-percentage at least gives us some idea of how much they’re lifting their teams and how much they’re benefitting from the team in front of them. And Bishop’s ’15-’16 was only ok in that department, with a difference between the two of +0.22. But that doesn’t put him near the elite. For example, Corey Crawford’s difference averages +1.2 over the past five years. Sergei Bobrovsky has been above +1.8 the past couple years, which is why he’s carrying hardware. Braden Holtby has been over +1.0 the past two years. Matt Murray was +1.6 last year.

Even Bishop’s first Vezina-finalist season of ’13-’14 he was only +0.5, so the Lightning were doing some work for him in front of him. Work this Stars roster is almost certainly not capable of no matter what elixir Hitch is cooking up in the cauldron in his office. Yes, he almost certainly has a cauldron and you know it.

There are other concerns with Bishop. He had groin-injury problems in the previous couple of seasons, and at 31 and at 6-7 those don’t figure to get much better. Signing him until he’s 37 wasn’t exactly the stroke of genius. A $4.9 million hit isn’t going to cause anyone to reach for an oxygen mask, but it’s not brilliant either. It could be in two years that Nill is going to have to once again pay for two starting goalies, if not sooner. Which is how they got into this mess in the first place.

Still, it’s not like there were tons of options for Nill. Scott Darling was out there but the Hawks might have been antsy trading him within the division and hence would have probably asked the Stars for way more than they got from Carolina for just the right to negotiate with him. Brian Elliot? Steve Mason? Trade for Mike Smith? These are not franchise turners.

If Bishop doesn’t work out, Nill is probably going to pay with his job. Goalies are the new quarterbacks it would seem. And Bishop is good enough to not let you down. It’s just that he might not rise a team up to a level it might not quite deserve. And that’s probably what this Stars squad needs.

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