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Game #25 – Stars vs. Hawks: Q&A With Taylor Baird

By Sam Fels 2487 0

Taylor Baird is the editor of DefendingBigD. com. You can follow her on Twitter @TaylorDBaird.

The Stars have had something of the same wonky start that the Hawks have. Why hasn’t Hitchcock’s charms worked miracles yet (we’re not exactly Hitch fans, if you can’t tell)? 
It’s not just a coach and his system that was overhauled this offseason. The Stars have several new faces this year, and some old faces that have struggled mightily so far (::side-eyes Jason Spezza::) It’s a lot to juggle while learning what this system needs every night. Their start reflects that.
On the plus side, John Klingberg is nearly a point-per-game, and his metrics have bounced back to where they were two seasons ago. He definitely had a dip last year, what’s been different this campaign?
It’s maybe more a continuance of the end of his previous season. After Klingberg got over his struggles, and found a consistent partner that complemented him in Esa Lindell, he played well down the stretch. He brought that confidence into this season.
The Stars have a secondary scoring problem. Radulov, Seguin, Benn, and Klingberg all have over 20 points, but no one else has over 11. Who needs to pick it up? 
Jason Spezza is the key to secondary scoring, and he has been very snake bitten to start the season. Radek Faksa, who had himself a good night against Vegas with a hat trick, would be another pick as someone that needs to step up (and when he does, natural hat tricks occur. Who knew?) 
We like to ask about our lost boy Stephen Johns. It felt like Lindy Ruff completely underrated him even while giving him human shield starts and competition. What does he look like under Hitch? 
He has been up and down this season, but that’s not exactly surprising given the way the Stars have played so far as a whole. It feels like he’s really stepped up after Marc Methot went down with injury. He is one player that I believe will benefit from Hitchcock’s system, and it’s possible that we are starting to see it consistently now.
 
Ben Bishop has disappointed since coming over in the summer. What’s been his problem? Is the Dallas crease just cursed?
Whoever stuck a pin in the Dallas goaltender voodoo doll, we’d like to have a word with you. Bishop looks better to the eyeball than his stats may show. It’s because he makes the key saves in the key moment, something that doesn’t show on a box score. He’s been the reason the Stars haven’t been slaughtered in some games, and he’s the reason the Stars are often still in others. He’s rarely been the reason for a loss. The guys in front of him have struggled and therefore he has at times too. But overall, I personally feel more confident with Bishop in net – a feeling that’s been missing in Dallas for a few seasons now.
Everything Else

Game #25 – Stars vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Pepe, Henri, Fernand, Lestat, Antoine

By Sam Fels 1944 0

One of the wonderful things about hockey is its propensity to toss a real villain at you. While other sports have a player or two that certain fanbases loathe, it’s not as prevalent. In hockey, every fanbase has at least one player on another team that could very well end up with their picture in the local post office. They probably have one per team. They live on long after their playing careers are over as a fire ant stinging a part of the memory. Say “Dino” or “Burr” or “Burrows” to any Hawks fan and they’ll involuntarily spit on the ground.

Antoine Roussel certainly wants to be in that group. And he’s pretty good at getting there. It’s like a mission with him, and while the effort put in kind of ruins it, he’s going to be remembered either way. The villainy he aspires to should come naturally. You shouldn’t see the gears turning within, but with Roussel you do. He never shuts up. He’s dirty. He actually does fight people much bigger than him and holds his own. And he also occasionally pops up with an annoying goal or two to make it worse. Hockey fans won’t tell you this but pests and rapscallions that can actually play only angry up the blood more.

Roussel gets another rub in that he’s actually French. Not fake-French like David Perron or whichever other dink comes from Quebec and tries to act European to have some sort of superiority over the rest of the continent that makes them speak English anyway. But it’s easy for the French to play the villain, because it’s what we’re used to. Not that we ever have a particular beef with the French, but both sides have always acted like it. The only way Roussel could do this better was if he was British. We’re attuned to boo the French, and they’re attuned to soak it in.

Roussel is a confluence of hockey villain and French. It really couldn’t be more perfect. And he seems to know it. Which only makes it better. Hockey could use more characters.

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Game #25 – Stars vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1638 0

All stats at even-strength unless noted, and adjusted for score and venue. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

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Thought It Was Too Cold For A Circus

By Sam Fels 2131 0

There really is no better theater than when a Canadian team is bad. And it’s exponentially better when that team was expected to be good. So here’s the latest lunacy going on in Edmonton.

This is hardly the first time we’ve seen that a goon’s absence is the main fulcrum for a team’s collapse. It usually comes out of Boston, and word is their construction of a Shawn Thornton statue to place in the middle of the dressing room is almost complete. And no, you won’t be allowed to step on it, though that won’t stop Pierre McGuire from making love to it upon his every visit to TD Garden, along with some possible pitstops as he’s covering games anywhere in the Northeast. And there’s an image to get you through the rest of the day.

Hockey is the leader in attaching “value” to players who have none and calling it leadership. It kind of works because I’m sure players actually buy into this shit. If they were to look at it logically, you’d probably get Leon Draisaitl thinking, “Why the fuck am I going to listen to a guy whose inability to skate four minute competently causes me to have to skate 22 a night and then kill his penalties?” Yeah, that would be a fair question.

It’s not germane to hockey, of course. Remember when the Cubs’ early season struggles were blamed on the absence of David Ross and the pool noodle he brought to the plate? But hey, Ross at least was still a very good defensive catcher who could throw guys out. He had value somewhere.

None of this is helped by the fact that the team Matt Hendricks defected to, the Winnipeg Jets, are having a surprise start to the season. But to the hockey media, especially north of the 49th. there has to be a mythic quality to everything. This stems from the bullshit narrative that hockey players are somehow “special” instead of the same genetic freaks that every other professional athlete is. So the Jets success isn’t really just based on Connor Hellebuyck finally fulfilling the promise he showed in lower leagues and ages and the Jets shooting the lights out. No, there’s an element of magic to it, magic that only “glue” guys like Hendricks contain and have spread out of his pores and infect everyone else in the dressing room. Because Blake Wheeler hasn’t been perhaps the league’s premier power forward before Hendricks showed up.

As for Edmonton, the problems are so obvious that I suppose everyone there is just fatigued of talking about them. Their blue line sucks. It’s sucked for years. They have no bottom six or really any wingers of note when Draisaitl is in the middle. And Cam Talbot just hasn’t been quite as good as he was to bail them all out. And they have no backup again, so he’s playing all the games and his muscles and tendons are going to be paste at any moment now.

But clearly, no team can just lose. They must be missing something, like a dunderhead who can’t play barking at them from the bench on how many minutes per goal they can take to overhaul a two-goal deficit or talk shit from the bench. That’s my favorite part, how these are called leaders because they talk while not playing. Yeah you know what happens when you talk shit to LeBron from the bench? He drops 40 on you and then goes and sits on the bench himself because his team is up 25. I live for the day that like, Tarasenko scores a goal and then takes the puck and flips it to Hendricks as he skates by because he wouldn’t shut up from the bench. Hockey would lose its fucking mind and it would be hilarious.

If Connor McDavid can’t be a captain because Hendricks isn’t around, then maybe they shouldn’t have put the “C” on him in the first place. If he doesn’t think his skills and importance don’t give him every right to jack up Milan Lucic and get him to actually do things that help the team, what’s the point?

But no, it’s never that simple, is it?

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – November 29th

By Sam Fels 1377 0

First Screen Viewing

Lightning v. Bruins – 6:30

Somehow this is a “rivalry,” because they played in the playoffs once. You might remember it from 2011 as the first boring-as-shit Guy Boucher-led conference final you’ve had the displeasure of continuing to breathe through. And because it’s Boucher and nothing ever happens, they both went seven life-is-meaningless-and-empty games. Anyway, of the four games tonight only two feature two teams above .500 so we’ll pick this one. The Lightning are still fun, even if their coach spends most of the night finding out where the good BU parties are (hint: there is no such thing). The Bruins are…the Bruins. There’s Bergeron and that’s about it. You can marvel at the sheer moon-ness of Charlie McAvoy’s face.

Other Games

Senators vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Ducks vs. Blues – 8pm

Jets vs. Avalanche -8:30

Everything Else

Ain’t It Fun?

By Sam Fels 2516 0

There’s many things you can label the ’17-’18 Hawks so far, but one of them isn’t “boring.” Whether they’ve been playing like dogshit earlier in the year or this current form where they’ve played pretty well (whatever last night’s result), the Hawks haven’t been dull. In previous years, even when they were the class of the league, things could get rote. The past two years when they’ve had their wonky periods, it hasn’t been nearly as interesting at this team even when it’s not playing well.

You’ve heard us mention it before, but the Hawks are the highest-event team in the league. By that we mean there are more total attempts, both for and against the Hawks, in their games than anyone else’s. What’s staggering is just how high-event they are.

Ok, it’s going to get a little number-y here, so I’m putting that out there so you can get your glasses on or make some tea or stretch a bit. Whatever you need to do to receive the data about to be thrown at you. Ok, here we go.

So far this year, the Hawks have 108.4 total attempts at even-strength in their games per 60 minutes (adjusted for score and such). This is tops in the league, and by some distance. The next highest is Anaheim at 104.5. That gap between 1st and second of four attempts per 60 minutes is the same between Anaheim and the Rangers in 11th.

What’s a bit staggering is that if this were to continue through the end of the season, it would be the highest mark by miles in five seasons. No team in the past five years has had more than 103 attempts in their games in the past five years (Ottawa in ’13-’14). The Hawks are basically miles above what has come in recent history.

But ah…. it’s not so simple. If you liked the homer binge in MLB this year, then hockey might just be for you this year as well. At the moment, 11 teams are averaging more than 100 attempts in their games per 60 minutes at even-strength. In the previous four seasons, no more than four teams have averaged more than 100 attempts in their games per season. Clearly, something is going on.

Now, as we know, things tend to flatten out as the season goes along, players get bored/hurt, coaches start reining things in to consolidate position, whistles go in pockets. We’d have to see what the marks look like in previous years at this point in the schedule. But still, it’s something of a different environment. Has the crackdown on slashing and such opened up a little more room on the ice? So far it sure looks like it, given how many teams are becoming more high-event. As we said, the Senators back in ’13-’14 had the highest event games in the past five years, and currently six teams are above that mark so far this season.

What does it mean for success? That’s a little more sobering. Currently, the six teams above that 103.5 mark are the Hawks, Ducks, Flames, Canadiens, Hurricanes, and Penguins. None of these teams are atop their divisions, though the Flames and Penguins are at least in touching distance. Last year, the top five event teams were the Leafs, Penguins, Stars, Islanders, and Coyotes. That’s a pretty decent team, champs, and three non-playoff teams.

In ’15-’16, the top five event teams were the Stars, Flyers, Leafs, Avs and Islanders. That’s three playoff teams and two big bags of suck in the Leafs and Avs. And none of the Flyers, Stars, or Islanders saw the conference final.

In ’14-’15, the top five event teams were the Stars (sensing a theme?), Islanders, Sharks, Coyotes, Flames. The Islanders and Flames made the playoffs, and only the Flames won a round.

In ’13-’14, the top five event teams were the Senators, Leafs, Sharks, Hurricanes, and Stars. The Sharks were a 111-point team that blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings (you might have heard about it), the Stars made the playoffs before getting whacked by the Ducks.

So yeah, you can make the playoffs if you’re this entertaining, but of the 26 teams we just discussed only one went on to win a Cup and there hasn’t even been another conference finalist on that list.

When looking at just the Hawks, this is a huge increase in their attempts for and against. So it’s not like you can just say, “Oh their defense is responsible.” Quite simply their games are just more open, their offense creating more than it has in five years. But we’ve never see a Quenneville team surrender over 50 attempts per game, and it doesn’t appear to be a recipe for success.

Everything Else

Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators: Spotlight – Turris Lura Lural

By Sam Fels 1918 0

It’s rare we get a blockbuster trade in the NHL. Most GMs would cover themselves in their own piss for anything that put their name in league-wide headlines, and even the ones that want to get out there are severely handicapped by the salary cap. So it’s strange that David Poile has been part of two of the biggest trades in the league the past two seasons. First it was PK Subban for Shea Weber, and then Poile pulled the trigger on the #2 center his team needed since he pulled the trigger on another huge deal for Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones. When it comes to taking chances, Poile seems to be way ahead of his competition.

Is Turris the final piece for the Predators? It sure feels that way. The Preds have been short down the middle for what seems like their entire existence. Last year when Ryan Johansen went down they were forced to go forward with Mike Fisher and Calle Jarnkrok. Those are fine players but not quite enough. They were just good enough to break the Predators heart.

It took Turris a lot longer to become a real player in the NHL than the player he was picked two spots behind in 2007, which would be Patrick Kane. He didn’t play his first year, and then was inserted into a pretty terrible situation with Wayne Gretzky behind the bench. Turris clearly saw that it would never work in Arizona, asking out just about as soon as he could, when his entry-level deal was up.

Turris took off in his second year in the Northern Capital, which was the abbreviated season of 2013. Since then, Turris has averaged better than a point every two games, or 50+ in other words if you go that way. He was counted on for #1 center production in Ottawa, which wasn’t really fair to him as that’s not what he is. Turris’s most effective years came with Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone. Last year Turris was asked to help out with kid Ryan Dzingel and the slowly bloating Bobby Ryan, and his production dropped a touch.

Once again, it seemed that Turris read the writing on the wall where he was, and didn’t sign an extension in Ottawa. Or he was just bored out of his mind. With Eugene Melynyk’s internal budget and the pure torture of Guy Boucher’s system, Turris forced the Senators’ hand. He seems to have landed in the perfect situation.

Turris has been asked to finally get something out of Kevin Fiala. Early returns are good, as Fiala has put up seven points in the eight games since Turris arrived and became his center. Craig Smith also has seven points in Turris’s eight games, and they’ve been the one line in Nashville that isn’t surrendering far better chances than they are creating. Which hasn’t really mattered given how Rinne has played and how they’ve finished at the other end of late.

Turris was immediately signed to a six-year extension at $6 million per season, which sets the Preds up pretty swell for the next few years. Only Fiala among the forwards comes up for a new deal in the next two years, at least of the forwards who matter. Ryan Ellis is due a new deal after next year, and he’s going to get a massive raise and may have to find it elsewhere. And after next season Pekka Rinne’s deal is up. If they want him to stay they certainly can get him to come down from his current $7 million at 37. Johansen, Arvidsson, Turris, Bonino, Forsberg, Smith, Subban, Josi, Ekholm are all locked in. That’s about as good of a core locked up as you’ll find anywhere.

It certainly appears to be all systems go for the Predators this season, and you wonder who can match Johansen-Turris-Bonino down the middle. It’s certainly not the Blues. It could be the Oilers, but they are rotting sushi just about everywhere else. Maybe the Flames in a conference final, but they have issues as well. The Jets? Anyone counting on the Jets for anything ever?

The runway lights are on for the Predators now, that’s for sure.

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Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators: Q&A With Hayley Alexandra

By Sam Fels 1986 0

Hayley is a contributor to OnTheForecheck.com. You can follow her on Twitter @ItsHalesYeah.

6-1 since the Kyle Turris acquisition. Clearly it’s all systems go for the Predators. What’s been the biggest difference he has provided?
The Preds offense has lacked center depth for so long, finally acquiring a 2C out of a guy Ottawa was running as a 1C is huge for this team. He was a renewed confidence boost they needed badly before the trade. Any time a new guy comes in and shakes things up I think it helps the guys who have struggled, work out whatever issues they’ve been having, and get back to playing their game. Turris has definitely taken some pressure off of Ryan Johansen, who was slow to start this year. Knowing that he has some depth behind him now should keep this team rolling deep into the post season again.
If there’s any concern, Juuse Saros has struggled in limited appearances. Is there a fear that Pekka Rinne might have to play too many games if Saros can’t turn it around?
Saros is young and talented, but spending too much time on the bench isn’t good for anyone. He could benefit from spending a few short trips to the AHL to get some playing time in. As for Rinne, he’s been a workhorse for this team for the past few seasons. It’s a role he’s comfortable with and thrives on. My faith in Rinne has not faltered, despite all the backlash he’s gotten the past few seasons. His play during last year’s playoff run and this season has shown he has one goal and that’s to win the cup before he retires. For the first time in a few seasons, Rinne is the least of Nashville’s concerns. 
Truly scary that Ryan Ellis has yet to suit up this season. When he returns do you see Peter Laviolette keeping the top two pairs as is and having Ellis on the third?
Being without Ellis has hindered the defense significantly this season. While Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, and Mattias Ekholm can hold their own, it’s left an odd rotation to the top pairs. Matt Irwin is a solid anchor for the third line but isn’t really a top pairing kind of defensemen. Guys like Yannick Weber and Alexei Emelin have not been great this season either, keeping either one of them on the top lines probably wouldn’t work out for long. As long as Ellis is healthy he easily slides back into the top two pairings as he should. I can’t see any reason why Laviolette would do anything differently. 
A strange aspect to the Preds so far is that while they’ve been consistently one of the better analytic/sabermetric teams over the years, this year they’re not creating as many “good” chances as years past. Obviously this hasn’t been a problem in actually scoring goals, especially of late, but is this something you see?
The start of this season was not the best showing for the Preds. While they’re not creating as many good chances, they’ve also missed a lot of chances as well. I think the addition of Turris and guys like Scott Hartnell and Ryan Ellis getting healthy will help the Preds create better chances and finish them. 
Now that we’re more than a quarter into this season, does it feel even more like Cup Or Bust for the Predators than it did before the season?
This is such a young team, I think they’ll be Cup contenders for a while. That being said the city of Nashville is ready for a Stanley Cup winning team, and if any Preds team can get it done, it’s this one. 
Everything Else

Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators: Douchebag Du Jour: Yes, We Know, We Suck

By Sam Fels 2746 0

With the Hawks’ first trip into Music City tonight, and the fact that it’s a nationally televised game on NBCSN, you can be sure it won’t take more than three or four minutes before you hear A. just how loud the building is for a regular season game, B. how loud it was during the playoffs last year when the Hawks got swept. Gee, doesn’t it seem like every year the broadcasters are telling us this is the loudest building they can remember in all their years? We wouldn’t put it past hockey media to have lost their memories through various braincell-damaging activities, but it does seem a coincidence.

And you will hear the noise through your screen. You can’t escape it. And by the second intermission, you might start feeling bad about yourself, whatever the score. And you won’t know why. You’ll ponder, because maybe you had a good day today and were feeling particularly good when you got home from work. You thought you looked particularly good today. Maybe you finished some project that had been taking forever, or your least favorite coworker got fired or you confirmed a pretty hot date for later in the week. So why all of the sudden are you feeling so unsure of yourself?

And then you’ll realize it’s because you’ve spent the previous hour, hour and a half listening to 18,000 people repeatedly and constantly telling you that you suck. And maybe they weren’t directly talking to you, but hearing it over and over again and you can’t help but take it on yourself. After a while the question will be unavoidable: “Do I, in fact, suck?”

That’s what happens when watching games at Bridgestone Arena. A constant hum telling you that you suck. No matter the score, no matter the chant, no matter the time. YOU SUCK. It never stops. So much suckage. You thought you had it figured out, but no. The yellow-clad throng has convinced you that yes, Virginia, you suck.

And what’s more exasperating is that the only time the Predators fans don’t yell, “You suck!” is when the organist is playing WWE’s Kurt Angle’s theme. WHICH IS EXACTLY WHEN YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO DO THAT!

While we love the unique and boisterous atmosphere at Predators’ games, perhaps we can expand our taunts to something more than two words, one involving “suck?” Are we asking too much? Yes, we know this is the limitation of North American fan culture. And hockey media is blown away by anything other than “Go Leafs Go!” We get it.

You have the power, Cellblock 303. You’re Music City for fuck’s sake. Can’t you introduce a song or two to your crowd? We just can’t suck anymore.

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