Everything Else

While we held out hope that Alex DeBrincat might get into the Calder discussion at the end of the season, there isn’t going to be much of a Calder discussion when this season is over. It’s Mathew Barzal’s unless he completely spills it in the season’s last half. And the future he may portend for the Islanders is probably even more exciting for Isles fans.

Barzal has been a point per game so far this year, and though we’re only barely halfway through the year he’s on pace to have the best rookie season since 2010. Connor McDavid is the only rookie to score at a higher pace, but he only played 45 games thanks to becoming McClavicle. He has a great  chance of topping both Artemi Panarin’s 77 points and Patrick Kane’s 72 points as rookies, which are the best points total as a rookie in the past decade.

But these aren’t empty points either. Barzal is way above the Isles’ rate in both Corsi and Expected Goals, He does get some sheltered zone starts but as he’s piled up the points the competition has gotten tougher and tougher.

Barzal’s actual goal-percentage are a sky-high 15% higher than the Islanders as a team. But this is where stats might not tell you everything. The Islanders shoot 10% with Barzal on the ice and he’s shooting 13% at even-strength himself. But given Barzal’s skills and vision, he might be creating better chances than just about everyone else. Yes, Barzal’s expected goals while on the ice is 2.63 per 60 and the Isles score at 3.65 per 60 which is obviously askew. But Barzal has been playing with Jordan Eberle, and both might just be gifted finishers.

To enjoy Barzal you have to go beyond the numbers. While there’s always a rush to declare someone similar to Patrick Kane (on the ice), Barzal is as close as you’re going to get. And he might do it faster? The game slows down when Barzal has the puck and gives him the time to pick his openings. He extends possessions simply because he can hold onto the puck for so long and wade in and out of traffic. Combined with Eberle and they make some real symphonies out there.

Perhaps the biggest thing that Barzal brings is that he might just be enough to keep John Tavares on the island. Or get him back there when they move to Belmont. Sure, there aren’t a lot of places Tavares can go due to the cap. Maybe Montreal, but he’d never go to Carolina you don’t think, the Flyers are doubtful, the Rangers are a mess, and so on.

But if you’re Tavares, with Barzal in tow and Brock Nelson behind that one could conclude they have center depth for a while. There are three young d-men who look to be mainstays. Yes, the Islanders still have much to figure out and it starts in goal. They’re a good bet to miss the playoffs again. But Barzal’s best years are ahead of him and that has to be awfully alluring.

The landscape may change as well. The Penguins may already be aging, and the Capitals are the Capitals. As said , the Rangers window has shut the big bad wolf is warming up on their straw house. The Devils’ arrow is definitely pointing up, and the Jackets are… well, the Jackets. It feels like the Canes may never get it together. There’s definitely a window here, and Barzal is the biggest reason why.

Still, get him a second “t” in his first name already.

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Dan Saraceni is an editor at LightHouseHockey.com. You can follow him on Twitter @CultureOfLosing. 

We’ll start with something joyous: Mathew Barzal, the best player ever or the bestest player ever?

The best. Maybe bestest ever. Islanders haven’t had a player with this… whatever it is in a long time. Even as great as Tavares is, the speed and elusiveness of Barzal is like X-Men level. Of course, as expected, we’re now into the “stop turning the puck over” part of the program but he’s got the awareness and quickness to clean up his own messes a lot of the time. I’ll be sad if he doesn’t win the Calder but those things happen. I’m more excited about seeing what he can do in years two, three and beyond.

Anders Lee is on pace for 40 goals, after 34 last year. That would make him one of the more dangerous scorers in the league. is that what he is? Or a Tavares product? And was Lee who  Peter Chiarelli thought he was getting for Eberle and got confused?
Lee is Tim Kerr, that immobile net front beast that cleans up a lot of rebounds. He’s a little better than just that, but it’s “where his fish is fried,” as Doug Weight said. I wouldn’t say he’s a product of Tavares because he had 36 goals last year, many coming after Tavares was hurt and missed the end of the season. But what’s weird is that without Josh Bailey, that whole line hadn’t worked that well over the last few games. That might be because they had a rotating cast of nobodies on the other wing, but I think Bailey and Lee work as a tandem because of the set-up/net front dynamic. Tavares will be Tavares no matter who he’s with. I think Chiarelli thought he was getting all three Strome brothers for Eberle in a kinda weird Hockey Voltron deal or something.
The Isles are rocking three young d-men in Pelech, Mayfield, and Pulock. What’s the outlook for this trio?
The outlook is long because they’ve already signed Pelech and Mayfield to cheap, long term deals of four and five years respectively. They’re both similar: more defensive than offensive, not especially quick, prone to games of quiet competence and bouts of overt ineptitude, seem like nice guys. Pulock had high expectations given his AHL scoring numbers and big slap shot. His defense has gotten better this season but he’s been reluctant to let it rip for some reason earlier this season. He’s definitely got talent, it’s just a matter of putting it all together (and letting the coaches keep him in the lineup).
Are the Islanders gonna have to find a goalie before the deadline?
Honestly, at this point, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. This team has a lot of structural and fundamental issues that need to be addressed first. Neither goalie has had a good season. Greiss’s 50-something save performance in Montreal on Monday was his best game since October and he’s been sub-.900 the entire time. Halak was awful in November, but has shown more signs of life throughout the season. I was at the 4-1 loss to the Devils on Tuesday and it’s hard to say he was at fault for all but one goal. No goalie should have to face 40+ shots a night. Halak’s a UFA and they’ll need the savings to sign Tavares and (I hope) Bailey. Greiss will be back next year, and I hope back to the above average goalie he was when they signed him. They have some prospects playing overseas that they’re banking on, too. Typical Islanders: the answer is always tomorrow.
So how does this Tavares thing go? Barzal, new arena plans all show promise for the future. In the other hand, may miss the playoffs again.
I’ve been compiling Tavares free agency stories for almost two years now and I still have no idea. Before Monday, when he told a crowd of Montreal reporters that he wants to stay on Long Island and has never thought about playing anywhere else, he had been consistent in saying, “I like it here, I’m focused on winning and when the time is right, I’ll weigh all the information.” (which reminds me, I need to add that stuff.) Most insiders agree he’ll stay. I think that he thinks they can still be a winner, especially with Barzal now in the picture. Belmont was huge. The new owners have to know that without him, even less people will want to watch them. They have money coming off the books, which was smart. But I’ve seen them screw up so many lay-ups, it’s hard to think they won’t do it again.

 

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It’s not really fair to put Cal Clutterbuck here. It’s not his faults that the Minnesota Wild, and then the New York Islanders, felt the need to make his “hit” numbers seem like something out of a Suess book. But it is his fault that he looks like a Colin Farrell mugshot, so we’ll get on his case for that.

For a long time, Clutterbuck was actually the kind of fourth-liner you’d want. Yes, he was nuts and yes, occasionally he would go overboard and do something truly stupid. But he could really skate, he gave you 10+ goals per season and could kill some penalties for you. He was what Joel Quenneville thinks Lance Bouma is.

But as we all saw, and every broadcast couldn’t wait to mention because they’ve all been beaten about the head with lawn equipment, the Islanders seriously bloated his hit totals. If you go on NHL.com and look at the past 10 years, the top three hit totals for a season belong to Matt Martin. Matt Martin could never move, so how he was averaging over four hits per game is Bermuda Triangle shit. Clutterbuck has seasons 6-10, which covers both Minnesota and New York. The only interloper in the top 10 is Mark Borowiecki from Ottawa last year, further proving Guy Boucher’s genius, of course.

No question Clutterbuck is a physical player, though he’s slowing down now and even the Islanders staff can’t make up hits for him to make him seem more active than he is. But he’s still chipping in goals, with eight so far this year from the fourth line. He’s also doing that while starting 70% of his shifts in the defensive zone, the third year in a row he’s started over 60% in his own zone.

Considering that’s where he’s always played, isn’t his goal-production and penalty killing enough? Do we really need to highlight his contributions when his team doesn’t have the puck to make it seem like he’s a worthwhile player?

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Courtesy of Corsica.hockey. Adjusted for score and venue at evens. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

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With school back in session for everyone we can bring these back. Lots of daytime pucks today too so we’ll get it done early:

First Screen Viewing

Jets vs. Flames – 2pm

The Jets grip on the Central has started to weaken, as the Preds have passed them with games in hand and the injuries are starting to become just a touch much for the Blues. The Flames are one of the hottest teams in the league and have zoomed by the Ducks and Kings and are right on the Sharks’ ass for second in the Pacific and the embarrassment of finishing behind and expansion team (which is the whole league’s embarrassment, to be fair). Amazing how the Flames took off after Jaromir Jagr left. How could they possibly succeed without such a dominating and influential player is just beyond me. It truly is a mystery. Anyway, plenty of talent on display for this one.

Second Screen Viewing

Penguins vs. Sharks – 7pm

Here are some other teams playing well. I’m not quite sure how, or why, the Sharks are second in the Pacific given the roster, but there they are. They’ve won three of their last four after losing three in a row, though two of those were over the Coyotes in extra time and the other was over the charred remains of whatever it is the Kings were or are these days. It could be the Pacific just sucks and someone has to be in second, and it’s the Sharks’ turn. The Penguins are definitely putting things together, winning six of eight to get back in the mess in the Metro. They’re scoring tons, as you tend to do with that kind of forward talent, with 30 in their last eight games and one of those they got shut out in.

Other Games

Stars vs. Sabres – noon

Devils vs. Flyers – noon

Rangers vs. Avalanche – 2pm

Bruins vs. Canadiens – 6pm (do these two only play each other now?)

Leafs vs. Senators – 6pm

Hurricanes vs. Red Wings – 6pm

Coyotes vs. Blues – 7pm

Panthers vs. Predators – 7pm

Lightning vs. Wild – 8pm

Canucks vs. Oilers – 9pm

Everything Else

Took a few days off myself during the bye and let the proletariat handle it. So clearly there’s some stuff to get through since if you give the Hawks enough time without any games they probably will trip over their own dicks.

-I can’t add too much to what Pullega and Rose have put up over the past couple days about Corey Crawford. It’s once again proof that trying to shroud yourself in secrecy just isn’t going to work.

Some people want to claim that the Hawks and really most NHL teams’ sprint to the stronghold of information blackouts springs from the NFL’s. NFL coaches are a poisonous combination of paranoid to the point of tin foil chapeaus, while also convinced of their own genius that their systems and gameplans should be studied at Wharton if not The Louvre for generations (though a fun game might be getting NFL coaches to define The Louvre, if not spell it). This is what happens when you give guys a full week of nothing to do but convince themselves of threats as they work 19-hour days and can’t remember the names of their daughters.

I don’t think hockey’s comes from that. It’s part that, sure, but hockey coaches and execs have always been too dismissive/stupid/mealy-mouthed to actually share information. The fear has always been that if you announce a player has an ankle problem, every player on your next opponent is basically going to do everything up to and including chair-shots on said ankle. Hockey being hockey, this isn’t totally far-fetched.

But with the Hawks, they should have learned long ago that if you have a period of silence, anything and everything is eventually going to fill up that void with all sorts of noise and you’re going to end up speaking about it anyway. And that’s where the Hawks find themselves.

I don’t know what they hoped to gain by plugging their fingers in their ears and shouting the chorus to “Caravan” as a team policy. This was always going to happen. Maybe they feared exposure of once again not handling a head injury correctly. Here’s an idea, and I know this is totally out there but maybe next time just handle the head injury correctly?

-This Crawford stuff has buried another nugget from Hawks fans’ favorite radio host Dan Bernstein on 670 The Score. While discussing the Crow weirdness he also let it be known that behind closed doors Joel Quenneville is still seething about the trade of Niklas Hjalmarsson. I couldn’t help but joke in my head that when the discussion on the afternoon show turned to whether or not Hawks fans watched other teams that maybe they should ask if the coach does as well.

By any measure, Hjalmarsson has been bad on a really bad Coyotes team this year. And if you were paying attention you saw a precipitous decline in the second half of last year. While his shot-blocking certainly got the most slobber treatment from Eddie O and apparently Q himself (and this is something that really needs to stop because you shouldn’t aim to be blocking shots as a go-to), that was far from Hammer’s most important attribute. While he was a stay-at-home d-man, he had greater mobility than most who fit that role. Which meant much like Keith and Oduya and even Seabrook back in the day, he could step up at his line and squeeze the space for opponents while not having to fear being beat to the outside. In addition, there may not have been a better Hawk d-man at making that 5-10 foot pass under duress, often blind, from the corner or below the goal line to the front of the net to a waiting Hawks center to release all the pressure and get the Hawks out of the zone.

Well, Hammer lost the step that allowed him to step up at his line. He lost the half-step to make that and other breakout passes as often as he could. And that’s not going to get better.

But it certainly explains the Connor Murphy scratchings at the slightest misstep #5 makes. It would hardly be the first time that Q has tried to either make a point to his GM, or simply stick it to him. Brad Richards starting behind Andrew Shaw on the center depth chart to start a season comes to mind, as does Steve Montador starting a season on the wing or Antoine Vermette playing a wing after arrival. There are others. Murphy is being held to an at-times unfair scale simply because his coach cries on a framed picture of a certain Swede before going to bed at night. Even with that, he’s been the Hawks best d-man by some distance this season.

This is where you wish the Hawks though they could be as transparently operated as both baseball teams in town are at the moment. Because if Stan truly envisioned this as a “transitional” season, and his quotes suggest he very well might have, he’d finally have a cudgel over his coach. If this is about getting the Schmaltzes and DeBrincats and Forslings of the world grounded, as well as getting Murphy into the Hawks’ “Martz-ian” system, Stan would have evidence to take to his bosses/fans about how his coach is getting in the way. And it would keep Q in line or maybe Stan would finally get to hire his own coach that he actually has a relationship with.

Instead, we get more of the same push and pull between coach and GM, and at this point it’s tiresome for all.

-I don’t know there’s much more I can add to the hysterical-if-it-wasn’t-sad choice of Kid Rock to perform at the All-Star game. The best case scenario for the NHL is that they’re just wildly ignorant, which isn’t encouraging. The simplistic explanation is that someone simply saw a google photo of him in a Red Wings jersey at a game and thought that was enough. Does he still do that now that they suck? Or is he more in the CM Punk fashion where he’s only around if it helps his brand?

Once again hockey has quivered in fear of a portion of the fanbase it would actually probably rather do without, and that’s the old angry white guy. And yes, if you listen to Kid Rock you’re old now. Sorry. You also suck, and I would gladly trade my life to bring Warren Zevon back to his only long enough so he could impale Kid on a flaming spear for stealing his song.

It’s that fanbase that keeps hockey from banning fighting which it would really like to, or enforcing the rules even harder to open up the game, or heavily suspending players for hits to the head/dirty play. But no, the NHL is terrified that the angry white dude who measures his own dick by how “tough” he perceives the sport he watches to be we’ll up and leave if they ever did any of this. You and I both know he won’t, because he has nowhere else to go (unless they did all this and Vince McMahon was convinced he could start an XHL and oh god this is going to happen isn’t it?), but the NHL has always operated out of fear and ignorance. Which is why they won’t backtrack on this either, although they’ll continue to celebrate Will O’Ree and Hockey Is For Everyone and You Can Play right along with it. Good stuff there.

Which is why it will always be a joke to most everyone else.

 

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Wings 17-18-7   HAWKS 22-16-6

PUCK DROP: 11:30 in the damn morning

TV: W-ENNN-BEE-CEEE!

PIZZA! PIZZA!: Winging It In Motown

Oh haven’t you missed these? NBC, clearly not paying attention to standings, feelings, or current trends, has scheduled what used to be one of the league’s leading rivalries for its Game Of The Week slot. Sadly, it’s not two teams who don’t play in the same conference, one of which is in a full rebuild (or should be) and the other is fighting just for a playoff spot. These days these games between the Hawks and Wings feel more like a family reunion between members that used to be in a real dispute but have gotten too old or too tired to care anymore. But the nation is getting it, and you’re getting morning hockey.

As you probably know by now, the Wings stink. Perhaps intentionally, or perhaps this is the best team Ken Holland can build. If they were in a full rebuild you’d wonder why Frans Nielsen and Trevor Daley are here, along with a few others. And Holland still has a chance to fix that by the deadline if he can.

In a sort of Red Wings way, this team isn’t even bad in an interesting way, depriving us of a good chuckle. Make no mistake, they’re not good. But they’re not really bottom-dwelling in anything, they’re just not good at anything. They get passable goaltending when Howard is in there and healthy, but Petr Mrazek has been Three Mile Island in net for the whole season. It was that was last season too, which makes you wonder if Holland doesn’t regret trading him when he had value two years ago. Whoops.

As has been the case with the Wings since Lidstrom retired honestly, this blue line blows. It did get rid of Brendan Smith last year, which you would think would have to make it better. But it’s not. Niklas Kronwall can’t get there anymore. No one’s ever been able to explain what it is Jonathan Ericsson does other than “be tall.” They signed Trevor Daley and then discovered that when Crosby and Malkin aren’t making up for his drunken cowboy style he actually just sucks, as the Hawks discovered. Danny DeKeyser allows you to say his name like “MacGuyver” in the episode where Sideshow Bob tries to kill Selma. Mike Green has had an effective season and should be one of the main prizes at the deadline because right-handed d-men, especially ones that can get up and go, are gold in today’s NHL. That is if Ken Holland has figured out that the Wings overblown playoff streak is actually over and he doesn’t still have to chase it, which is up for debate. God knows the Wings could use some more young pieces in return.

Up front, the hope mainly surrounds Andreas Athanasiou and Dylan Larkin, though they might lose Athanasiou (I can’t wait another day…) this summer due to Holland’s mangling of the cap. Along with Anthony Mantha they’re about the only reason to watch the Wings these days. Henrik Zetterberg can still play in both ends but should be a #2 or #3 center at this point in his career and he’s still taking top line shifts for Detroit. Todd Bertuzzi’s kid is on his line because you may not have seen that part of the latest CBA is that the Wings have to have a Bertuzzi in the lineup at all times. Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar are still here to score 30-45 goals no one gives a shit about per season, as they’ve done for a while now.

For the Hawks, the only change we should see is Anton Forsberg in for Glass Jeff. Maybe Kempny can slot in for Rutta or Seabrook, but with Rutta scoring the other night it’s unlikely. Basically, the Hawks have to keep the focus on the 60 here before decamping to whatever beach and casino they have planned for the bye week. This Wings team really should be brushed aside, but we’ve seen the Hawks spit it up against the Canucks and Avs in the past. There can be no such slips here, as the Wild won last night and the Hawks are once again on the outside looking in. They’re going to get passed in the next week obviously as they’ll be idle, so these two points are vital.

If you’re let off the gas Larkin can burn you, or Mantha on the power play down low, and Z is still capable of the odd moment of genius. So no bullshit here. Clean and efficient and then move on to a break that the Hawks will have to come out of firing.

 

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For so long, Ken Holland and the Red Wings were held up as the ideal of the league, a team and GM that we Hawks fans could never have. They were simply unimpeachable, unreachable. And man did they like to lord it over everyone else.

And it may have all been horseshit.

That’s being harsh, obviously, as we’re wont to do when it comes to the Detroit Red Wings. And it would be nearly impossible to justify that putting together a Cup team where Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holmstrom, Franzen and Filppula were all drafted as merely just dumb luck. Yes, the first three Cup teams were basically built before Holland took the GM office, but the 2009 team is his.

And yet it’s all gone wrong. Where to start?

We’ll start at the draft. Since taking Johan Franzen in 2004 in the first round, the only picks Holland has made that have made any sort of difference for the Wings since, and that’s 13 drafts mind, are Nyquist, Helm, Abdelkader, Tatar. Hardly any stars. Dylan Larkin and Andreas Anathasiou could change that of course, assuming they hang on to Anathasiou and we’ll get to that. So his drafting has clearly gone off the boil, as only Larkin looks like he has any chance of taking the torch from Zetterberg and the departed Datsyuk. And certainly no player has ever been anywhere near capable of taking anything like Lidstrom’s role.  Oh wait, the torch is a Montreal thing. Another blowhard organization. Whatever, sorry.

It’s not that Holland hasn’t drafted other NHL talent, they’ve just gone on to produce for other teams. Shawn Matthias has had a very serviceable NHL career, but he was swapped out for Todd Bertuzzi. We don’t even need to write a joke here. Calle Jarnkrok is currently a nifty checking center/winger on the Western Conference favorite, and he was flogged for David Legwand. Mattias Janmark moonlights on the Dallas top six. He was traded for Erik Cole. None of these three were going to turn around the fortunes of the Wings themselves, but all were younger, cheaper, and quite frankly better than all the players they were traded for.

And Detroit can’t buy their way out of shitty drafting, and even if they could Holland’s dispersement of the Illitch fortune has been hilariously bad. One, he’s been far too loyal to his own guys, as Dan Cleary and Todd Bertuzzi are just some of the players that have been kept for years too long in the past. Currently, Frans Nielsen is making $5.2 million. Abdelkader is making $4.2 million until 2023. Darren Helm makes $3.8 million and he’s never scored more than 17 goals and is made of gum and cardboard. Danny DeKeyser is making $5 million to do what? Ericsson makes $4.2 million. That’s $22.6 million for some third liners and third pairing players? And now you know how this team got capped out.

Which left them with no money t pay Andreas Anathasiou this summer, one of their few promising, young players. He has game-breaking speed and genuine top six skill. He had to hold out just to get the $1.3 million he got, and while Mike Green’s deal is up this summer, Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are going to need new paper as well. The Wings need the cap to go up and it will, but they also need it to go up like $20 million. Who’s going to take any of the above mentioned deals to free up space? All those players are above 30, by the way.

There isn’t much in the system either, so the Wings can’ afford to lose Anathasiou to pay all their old trash.

Holland is surely owed a great debt by the Wings, but whatever it is it’s certainly been paid. It’s probably time for new thinking in that office instead of just focusing on the gloss of previous triumphs, which get more and more in the rearview every day.

 

 

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