Game #48 Preview
For the first time, I’ve seen a real wave of sentiment that the Hawks need to make a major change behind the bench. Some have suggested in the front office. We joke about it here a lot, and we certainly criticize the decorated Hawks coach more than most. But it’s never so simple, and before the Hawks or anyone could conclude that this would be the right course of action one has to figure out what the intent of this season and what is really going on here first.
As we’ve talked about at length on the podcast, it’s hard to know what to think when we don’t know what exactly what Stan Bowman had in mind for this season. If the Hawks thought they could or were in any way inclined to be as transparent as other teams in town, what would they have told us before the season? I can’t take credit for the idea, it’s Fifth Feather’s, but there’s two ways this could have gone.
One is that this is truly a transitional season for the Hawks. One they probably should have embarked on a year ago or maybe even right after the last Cup, but that’s another discussion. That if they’d said while they wish to be competitive and make the playoffs, the main objective of this season was to bed in Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Forsling (whoops), now Duclair, Murphy, and let’s throw in Hinostroza and Sikura at the end for funsies (Kampf too if you want). That really what they wanted to get these players reps, ingrained, evaluated, and then have whoever makes the cut ready for one last assault on the summit next year, which is all you’re going to get with the aging “Core Five.”
And on that level, some of the decisions make some sense? I have to put a “?” there because I’m not really sure. If you wanted to see how Forsling and Rutta would do in the deep end, you’d give them the most d-zone starts of everyone. Which Q did. I guess if you squint you’d see if Murphy can play both sides, which he’s proven he can. But that seems a stretch. You’d try Top Cat as a playmaker on a lot of lines instead of a finisher…maybe? This is Schmaltz’s first real run at center, which you’d definitely do.
But on this level, the mistakes are greater than that. It was clear early on that Forsling wasn’t built to start so much in his own end, and a player who openly talked about losing confidence last year was having his ravaged again by such usage. He was booted off the power play even though that should be something he specializes in. Top Cat set all kinds of records playing the left side in the OHL, and has played there for about 12 minutes here. Isn’t it more prudent to build a player up in the softest spot to have success when he’s 19? And then see what his flexibility is? You could argue it took far too long to let Schmaltz just stay in the middle.
The handling of Murphy is the real red X here, and once again speaks to discord from front office to behind the bench which is the same shit we’ve talked about for years that the Hawks were talented enough to play over in the past but aren’t now. His scratches are simply petulant, given that he’s been the Hawks best d-man over the season. This is Q still bitching that his toy in Hammer–his declining, aging, slowing toy that was about to be more expensive–was taken away. While he’s certainly within his rights to be cranky, did Stan and Q never have a meeting after last season where it was laid out what the plan was? Should your coach be so gobsmacked at a trade as Q clearly was last summer? While we’ve seen the problems when Q gets a say in player decisions, or anyone above Stan does as well, I’m not sure that he should be in the dark either.
The more I watch this team the more I think this really was the plan, because everything Stan has done has been to get younger, faster, cheaper, and open up more space for his draft picks which hasn’t always been the case. And maybe if this team is ready to “go for it” next year (highly debatable what that would actually result in), you’d want Q there because that’s what he does. He’s just not the best for development, and that ignores whether or not some of the veterans have tired of his voice (which we’ll never prove).
If you take the other tack, that this year was about “ONE GOAL” as it always is, it’s gets murkier. There isn’t much Q can do to overcome the loss of Corey Crawford. Q can’t make Toews and Saad score. But even before that, if the goal was to amass as many points as possible. then why were Forsling and Rutta in the d-zone so much and on the kill? Why is Patrick Sharp anywhere near the top six? How can you have this power play? And how can it change personnel and tactics seemingly every opportunity? The scratching of Murphy makes even less sense in this context. Gustafsson and Oesterle going from either the minors or pressbox straight onto both special teams is confounding. If it was about development, it would make slightly more sense, but wouldn’t at least Oesterle have played from jump street?
These are all answers we won’t get because I don’t know what the long term or even short term goals were here. The simplest explanation is that Stan is remaking the entire roster under that “Core Five” (yes, Seabrook doesn’t really count anymore but he’s not going anywhere) either to give them one last chance either next year or preparing the ground for when they aren’t the front of this team anymore. But it doesn’t seem like his coach is playing the same game, once again.
And if that’s going to be the case going forward, one has to go. And Stan’s never gotten to hire a coach before.
vs. 
RECORDS: Lightning 31-12-3 Hawks 22-18-6
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: WGN Locally, NBCSN Nationally
KILLING TIME AT XQUISITE: Raw Charge
You know what you probably don’t need when your team is currently a mess and lost and feeling cold and alone? A visit from the league’s best team (fuck off, Vegas. Not buying your bullshit). But you don’t get to pick your schedule, so after the Hawks coughed up odd-colored hairballs against the decidedly not impressive Red Wings and Islanders, they’ll get a face-full of the Lightning tonight. Mama said there’d be days like this.
If there’s any consolation, and there likely isn’t, it’s that it’s a slightly beat up Lightning team. Both Victor Hedman and Ondrej Palat will miss this one and are likely out a little while. That’s caused a shuffle in both the forwards and defense, but this doesn’t really matter to Tampa. A little blip here of late has seen the Bruins pull within three points and the Caps in the other division within four for top spot, but it’s hard to see either team overtaking the Lightning unless it really goes wrong for them.
Still, they’ve lost their last three, including to the Knights Who Say Golden and the Wild, but that probably is only a bad thing for the Hawks because one of their hopes is they might catch a slightly disinterested opponent and now that’s probably not the case. And really, in this little doldrum section there’s nothing too structurally wrong. Yes, Hedman is a big miss as he’s almost all the drive from the back and was having a Norris-calibre season. But with Sergachev’s development and the still beating heart of Anton Stralman they haven’t lost as much of that as you think. Yes, Girard and Coburn are still here to provide a something’s-gone-off-in-the-fridge smell, but they’ve been able to cover that up for the most part.
They’re also just not getting the bounces at the moment. Stamkos has five goals in his last 17, which is well below his usual rate. Kucherov has gone cold a little bit as well, with one goal in his last seven games and three in his last 11. These are not things that are going to continue forever.
This is still a team that can pretty much hurt you from anywhere, with Brayden Point on the second line moving Tyler Johnson to a wing, but also a third center if they so choose. Yanni Gourde has been extremely effective on the third line, even if Alex Killorn is heading for Code Blue in a hurry. There’s just too much depth here.
And whatever the Hawks do tonight they have to stay out of the box. Given how their kill is going, given it’s going to be Glass Jeff in net, and given it’s Kucherov and Stamkos getting looks that’s going to end badly for everyone involved if it were to happen too much.
Right, to the Hawks then. Once again Q is going to hit the blender, and only in a few ways that make any sense. Patrick Sharp’s rotting corpse will join Schmaltz and Kane on the top line. Duclair will get to stick with Toews and Saad, and they flashed a couple times against the Islanders. Both Tommy Wingels and Lance Bouma, who were the heroes of the broadcast not so long ago, look to be scratched as Tomas Jurco is going to be aired out alongside David Kampf and Vinnie Smalls. Kampf slots down to accomodate the return of Artem Anisimov, who’ll slot between Hartman and DeBrincat. Whether Top Cat and Hartman are enough speed and control to counter the fact that Arty can’t move, we’ll just have to see. But Schmaltz has played too well at center to move out of there just yet, so it’s worth a shot.
Defensively, Forsling has been farmed out and you’d have to believe that Rutta is going to sit because he was awful against the Islanders. Then again, so was Seabrook but we’ve seen the once scratch we’re going to get, I feel. Gustafsson’s two points will keep him in the lineup even though his defensive GPS was up his own ass against the Isles as well. As a third pairing though, you’ll live with it. Kempny and Murphy will return together, though no one would blame them if they just spent the whole game spitting water on Q. I would.
This Hawks team has been so weird that it really wouldn’t be much of a shock if they beat Tampa. Or if they get their nuts punted through their skull. Glass against this kind of firepower, even without Palat and Hedman, is a scary thought and the Bolts will know all about the rebounds he leaves everywhere. Whatever happens, it should be interesting. It just might not be enriching.
Game #47 Preview
There’s little question that the Lightning are the best team in the league. While Vegas would love to claim that and their points total says it, the Lightning are just really good instead of feasting on luck and the unprofessionalism of hockey players who apparently just discovered that Las Vegas exists or something.
What’s scary about the Lightning is that according to the metrics, there really isn’t a weak spot to find on them.
To wit: Currently, the Lightning are fourth in the league in Corsi-percentage, and fifth in expected-goals percentage. But what makes that more impressive is that it’s not a case of a few players boosting the rate, and carrying others who are dragging them down. They’re solid 1-12 at forward and 1-6 on defense. Let us go further into it.
When you look at the individual players, no player is more than two percentage points below the team rate when looking at their relative Corsi-percentage. That’s Braydon Coburn at -2.03. And no player is more than two points above the team rate relatively either, which is Andrej Sustr at +2.1.
You don’t find that with the other teams at the top of the possession marks. The Bruins see a difference of about 11 points in their relative marks, with Patrice Bergeron at the top at +6.19 and David Krejci at the bottom at -5.75. The Stars have a difference around 14 points from their bottom player relatively to their top. The Predators have a difference of 16. The Hawks, who yes are still one of the better Corsi teams in the league, have a difference of 13. There just isn’t a hole the Lightning have to cover for.
It’s the same when it comes to the types of chances they create and give up. Coburn is their worst relative expected goals player at -5.7 percentage points, while Brayden Point is their best at +2.96 percentage points. The Stars have a 16-point difference from their worst expected goals to their best. The Oilers do as well. The Canes have a 17-point one. The Bruins have a 14-point gap. There’s just nowhere to go with the Lightning.
This is about as solid as a group in this department as we’ve seen in years. Which bodes well for the spring. Even if teams are able to keep Stamkos and Kucherov quiet at even-strength, and that’s a challenge, and even if they can keep Johnson and Point on a leash behind that (getting harder), the Lightning can get you from the third and fourth lines too if they have to. That’s how teams end up on parades.
What’s scary for the rest of the Atlantic Division is that the Bolts are probably going to be able to keep this depth together for a while. Only Namestnikov requires a new deal next year of the players who matter, and he’s restricted. Sustr does as well, but that’s up to you whether that matters. Kucherov could demand 8-10 million or more in two years’ time, but Stralman, Coburn, and Girardi are off the books then as well.
We probably should get used to this.
Game #47 Preview
GeoFitz4 is a writer on RawCharge.com. Follow him on Twitter @GeoFitz4.
We’ll start with Victor Hedman’s injury. How bad is it and is there any fear it will linger?
When the injury happened, and I first saw a replay while sitting in the arena, I cringed. I got sick to my stomach. It did not look good. It just screamed “torn [something]” and that it would be bad. With the prognosis coming out the day after as three to six weeks, everybody in Tampa Bay let out of sigh of relief. The shorter recovery time suggests that it was more likely a sprain than something being torn. However, maybe something is torn and he’ll be able to play on it once it heals a little bit? But either which way, there’s always a worry with knee injuries for big guys that skate well. You just never know if it’s going to impact the player when he returns. So there is certainly some fear in the back of our minds, but we remain hopeful.
With the Lightning s far ahead in the conference, has there been any thought of giving key players a rest here and there?
I don’t think that that is really Jon Cooper’s style. I think for most of the players on the roster they’re going to be playing a full slate as able. The exceptions might be for some older players like Chris Kunitz, Ryan Callahan, and Braydon Coburn to help keep them fresh. And I do think that Vasilevskiy will start taking less starts as the season goes on. Louis Domingue provides some more confidence in the depth in net and that actually leads me a little bit into the next answer…
What might the Lightning look to do at the deadline?
The team may have already made it’s most important trade of the season already in acquiring Louis Domingue back in November after the Arizona Coyotes waived him. The Lightning’s third goalie at the time, Michael Leighton, had struggled for Syracuse and the Lightning gave up basically nothing to acquire Domingue by trading Leighton and AHL veteran Tye McGinn. Domingue instantly upgraded the third goaltender spot in the organization. And he may even have a chance to overtake Peter Budaj for the back-up spot. Budaj is out for a few more weeks with a lower body injury and Domingue will have this opportunity to audition for the back-up spot. Either way, the team is going to have a hard decision to make when Budaj is back and both would need waivers to go to the minors.
Other than that, I think the most likely possibility is a right handed top-four defenseman. Mike Green is the big name that’s out there that fills that role, but I don’t think the Lightning would get full value out of acquiring him. It would move Jake Dotchin to the pressbox, but Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev already have the powerplay spots locked down and the Lightning play four forwards and one D on both power play units. The only other spot that is somewhat open would be the third line right winger spot. It’s currently occupied by Cory Conacher and he’s played well there. But… if there’s an upgrade to be had there for the right price, Yzerman has to consider it.
Steven Stamkos only has five goals in his last 17. Any concern there?
Not too much worry. The Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov line was the best line in the NHL for much of the first half of the season. That line stagnated a bit though and were broken up. Stamkos hasn’t quite refound his footing since then and the Lightning have been getting less power play opportunities as well. For much of the season, he’s been feasting off of assists, not goals. Coming out of the Christmas break, he made comments about wanting to shoot more. He did that in the first game out of the break with seven shots on goal, and did raise his average from 2.88 per game to 3.1 per game after the Christmas break. Even considering that, he’s a career 16.8% shooter and has four goals in the last 35 shots. With his normal shooting percentage, he should have scored five goals in that span so it’s not far off even though it’s been a little while.
If the Lightning don’t come out of the East, it will be because….?
They go into a funk at the wrong time and hit a hot team. So much of the playoffs is about getting hot at the right time as the Nashville Predators showed us last season. The Lightning came out hot for the first time in… a long time… but have hit some rough spots over the past month or so. Perhaps this is a good time for them to be going through that so that they can re-find their game now and keep it going through the end of the season and into the playoffs. The other big worry would be an injury to Andrei Vasilevskiy for pretty obvious reasons. He’s having a Vezina caliber season and losing him would be a big blow to the Lightning’s chances.
Game #47 Preview
We ran this a couple years ago, and thought we’d share again because we’re truly sick.
And as fair warning, things are going to get incredibly weird.
Please note, these #CooperFacts are parody and not actually true (that we are aware of), and that this reflects more on us than anything else.
- Jon Cooper has never made it through a team flight without making a Mile High Club joke to a female flight attendant while making an off-putting amount of eye contact.
- Jon Cooper has gone as Mo Wanchuk from Slap Shot for Halloween 10 years running.
- Jon Cooper has a signed 5×7 photo of him shaking Peter North’s hand in 2002 at the AVN Awards on his desk.
- Jon Cooper has used his law degree to represent himself in at least one public indecency charge.
- Jon Cooper’s pre-game meal is always at one of Tampa’s many fine strip club buffets.
- Jon Cooper has sent no fewer than 6 hand written letters to HBO regarding the decline in quality in their On Demand softcore selection.
- Jon Cooper has pulled the bathroom stunt from Mr. Robot at least three times on a female houseguest in the last year.
- Jon Cooper regularly tastes his own seed as a quality control measure to ensure consistent viscosity and flavor.
- Jon Cooper’s favorite actor is Michael Douglas.
- Jon Cooper has had to purchase the same Liberator four times due to wear and tear.
- Jon Cooper has more different massage oils than there are spices in the kitchen of The Girl & The Goat.
- Coincidentally, Jon Cooper thought The Girl & The Goat was something entirely different prior to last year’s final, and was quite disappointed upon finding out the reality.
- Jon Cooper asks the checkout girl at Kohl’s which set of patterned bikini briefs she likes better before making his purchase.
- Jon Cooper can’t resist drawing a dick and balls with WAY too much pubic hair on the whiteboard in the dressing room.
- Jon Cooper will tell anyone who will listen about his latex allergy.
- Jon Cooper likes to relax after a tough day by watching Wild Things 2 with the director’s commentary track on.
- Jon Cooper keeps a signed copy of “The Game” on his nightstand.
- Jon Cooper is one of the few men to have a glory hole in his own bathroom.
- Jon Cooper looks like he and his lady met two other couples at an empty mansion in the hills and swapped lovers for a week.
- Jon Cooper has the hair of a man who owns a cigarette boat.
- Jon Cooper told every Penguins player in the handshake line that they were welcome at his beachfront home any time for “mondo sucking and fucking”.
- Jon Cooper has an entire pantry full of coconut oil but he never cooks.
- Jon Cooper’s suit is a tear away he bought from discountstripper.com just in case.
- Jon Cooper calls girls “co-eds”.
- Jon Cooper swears “Leisure Suit Larry” is based off of his life.
Game #47 Preview
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #47 Preview
So I’ve been writing the occasional beer column for this program/website since aught-’14, and I’m not sure I’ve ever put pen to paper (or finger to keyboard) with the Blackhawks in as bad of shape as they are right now. This obviously calls for a strong beer to kill the pain, and lucky for us Revolution Brewing recently started canning its Deep Wood series of barrel-aged beers, and they’re all fantastic.
The beer that I want to highlight today is Deth by Cherries, which I had the good fortune of enjoying on tap last week at my favorite Loop watering hole, Monk’s Pub. Like all of the Deth’s Tar varieties, the base is the classic Deth’s Tar barrel-aged imperial oatmeal stout, which is one of my local favorites. The oats give Deth’s Tar a full-bodied feel that isn’t overly sweet, which is one thing I really like about it. And like all Deth’s Tar varieties, it’s aged in a bourbon barrel for a year to give it a boozy complexity. Tart cherries are added to give a nice, subtle fruit flavor without tasting like fruit punch or cough syrup (yes, I’ve had several cherry stouts that end up tasting somewhere between Fisherman’s Friend cough drops and Robitussin). And I’m sure you manhattan and old fashioned aficionados know how well cherry and bourbon go together, so yeah, the flavors in this beer are fantastic.
I suppose I should add that it’s 13.1% ABV, which is exactly the strength I’m gonna need when I watch the ‘Hawks D-men try to stay above water against Auston Matthews Toronto on Wednesday. Also, I’m going to the game with a Leafs fan, so… Think I could sneak a can into the UC? (I kid, Rocky! I kid! But seriously, can you have Goose send over some Bourbon County Stout by Wednesday? Thanks in advance.)
vs.
RECORDS: Islanders 23-20-4 Hawks 22-17-6
PUCK DROP: 7:30pm
TV: NBCSN
NO ONE ESCAPES THE ISLAND: Lighthouse Hockey
Not that the Hawks are allowed the luxury of excuses anymore, but another one has fallen out of the way as the bye week is over. The Hawks can’t claim fatigue, they can’t claim they’re already on a break, they can’t claim… well, shit. It’s time to call for battle stations, as the Hawks are simply out of time to reach a level that simply might not be there if they’re going to play beyond the already scheduled slate.
They couldn’t ask for a much better dance partner coming out of the break than the Islanders. While they’re not terrible, the Isles are an open team that gives up a ton of shots and chances and don’t have a goalie that can stop waving at pucks and turning around the wrong way. Then again, the Wings gave up a ton of chances and had a terrible goalie heading in the UC and the Hawks had all their organs fall into their legs.
The Isles also happen to be in a bad way, coming into this one off a 5-2 tonking at the hands of the Bruins on Thursday at home when the Bs were on the second of a back-to-back. That was their fifth loss in the last eight and seventh in the last 10, and they are simply bleeding goals profusely. They’ve given up 30 in their last eight games, and the Rangers are the only ones they’ve held under four in that time.
It’s not just the goalies, of course, and the other thing bending the Hawks way is the Isles are somewhat beat up. On the blue line, both Calvin de Haan and Johnny Boychuk are out, and what remains has basically been Wendell Kim (sky point) at their own line. Nick Leddy put up a -15 in December and a -9 in January and while +/- is basically a bullshit stat, it gives you some idea of how everything has quaked for them recently. Leddy shouldn’t ever be taking on a top pairing assignment, and now he’s doing that while playing babysitter to Scott Mayfield. The Isles have a couple other kids back there in Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, and the growing pains are there for all to see.
But this is burying the lede somewhat, as the Isles do boast one of the more exciting players to come in the league in Mathew Barzal and his missing “T.” Barzal is the runaway leader in the Calder race and with good cause. He even exhumed Andrew Ladd before Ladd got hurt, and he and Eberle have torn defenses apart all season. There are going to be some shifts tonight where they simply dance around whatever goof the Hawks have out there on defense, and you should prepare so you don’t pass out.
Their threat has loosened up the top line of Anders Lee-John Tavares-Josh Bailey. Bailey missed a couple weeks and returned on Thursday and the other two were something of a mess without him. Both Tavares and Bailey are in a contract drive this year, which doesn’t have Isles fans chewing on towels, drywall, their own skin at all. The top six here is one of the more threatening around, and has kept the Isles in touching distance of the Eastern playoffs. Good thing the Hawks will try and counter that with their best d-men, huh?
Oh right, that. The Hawks return from the break but Joel Quenneville’s brain is still out in Colorado or wherever he spent the bye. The Hawks best d-man this year, Murphy, and the mobile one they need, Kempny, are being scratched. In their place comes in Erik Gustafsson for…oh jesus I don’t fucking know, because he’s there? He’ll play his first game this year with Brent Seabrook who for sure won’t be turned into paste by either of the Isles top lines. Or they could look to shield them and have Rutta and Forsling deal with the Isles top six, which will go… well you know how that will fucking go. This is the good stuff here, people.
As far as the forwards, Anthony Duclair will move up with Toews and Saad, though he’ll be playing the right side where he, y’know, has barely ever played in his career. Vinnie Smalls slots down to the third line with Kampf and Top Cat, which is at least worth a look. The other two lines remain the same. Does anybody remember laughter?
Whatever the lineup, whatever their coach’s delusions, whatever their starting goalie’s condition, this is kind of it now. The Hawks blew the easier portion of this homestand, and now they’ll get the at least explosive Isles, the unholy force of the Lightning, and the malfunctioning Death Star that the Leafs are right now. Whatever the degree of difficulty, if the Hawks are going to be anything it has to start now. Otherwise, there should be some really tough questions asked.
Game #46 Preview
