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Game #45 – Flames vs. Hawks Spotlight: Matthew Tkachuk Is The Next Nylander?

By Sam Fels January 7, 2019 1471 0

Much like his father, Matthew Tkachuk is extremely annoying. Apple doesn’t fall far from the fuckstick and all that. He has pissed off pretty much every fanbase and player in the Pacific Division, and if he isn’t already he will soon reach Ryan Kesler levels of vitriol by anyone who has to deal with him regularly.

And much like his father, he’s a real weapon. Keith was a center you couldn’t move from around the net, when he wasn’t busy yapping about how much money he was making. You can’t move Matthew much either, and he could soon be yapping about how much money he’s going to be making. Which might make the Flames a little nervous.

Tkachuk is on a real heater this season, He’s at 18 goals and 29 assists, good enough for 47 points. His career-high in points is 47 set last year. So the 90 he’s on pace for now obviously blows that out of the water. Which makes him awfully expensive, as it just so happens that he’s coming out of his entry-level deal.

This is where the Flames might not want to hear the word, “Nylander.” As he’s reset the market for players coming out of entry deals, there are going to be others who want to take advantage of that. Keep in mind that William Nylander only put up 61 points in his year before his extended holdout. Tkachuk looks a good bet for at least 80. $7 million might not even be the upper-limit for what he seeks. Tkachuk can’t even be knocked for benefitting from playing with Johnny Gaudreau or Sean Monahan, as he’s spent most of his time taking on much harder assignments with Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik in the 3M line you’ve heard so much about. Tkachuk’s agent will be thinking about a lot more than 3 Ms come the summer.

Which will put the Flames structure and policies under the microscope. Gaudreau earns $6.7M per year, signed out of his entry-level deal. He’s clearly the Flames top star. Monahan comes in behind that at $6.3M. Are they in a hurry to pay someone more than him? We like to pretend these aren’t big deals in NHL dressing rooms, but we also know that’s a fallacy.

The Flames aren’t blessed with a ton of room, with somewhere around $14M available next season. Tkachuk will eat up about half of that next year, or he could. Both of their goalies are free agents, and while they’ll be delighted to send Mike Smith on his way, if Big Save Dave Rittich takes them far in the spring he’s going to need a lot more than the $800K he’s getting now. The season after next both TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic are up, and the Flames are going to require a second pairing. Brodie especially could command a raise from his current $4.6M.

Man, what a burden it is to have a lot of good young players in the NHL.

It’s another example of just how hard the line is to balance. Looking it over, the Flames only have one really bad contract on the books. That’s James Neal‘s free agent deal from this past summer. But they’ll still have to figure out how to fit Tkachuk and others around that in the next two summers, while adding so they can get over whatever obstacle presents themselves. One more bad deal, to either their own or another free agent, and the Flames could start losing talent.

Which makes the hardball Tkachuk could play this summer a real adventure for them.

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Game #45 – Flames vs. Hawks Q&A: It’s Mad, It’s Not Pretty, And It Calls Itself Floob

By Sam Fels January 7, 2019 1800 0

@BookofLoob is yet another creature we’ve unearthed from the darkest depths of the internet. We asked it questions, but don’t ask too many questions about it.

The Flames are still in first. This thing has to be real now, right?

Nashville is finally being undone by their “I love domestic abusers and a 36 year old Finnish Mike Smith” GM, and good things are never, EVER allowed to happen to Winnipeg, so yeah, this is real. You get some goaltending and you let the fake goalie ride the pine, mix it in with a top line that’s scoring at will, plus you throw in that, aside from Garnet Hathaway, you essentially have a top to bottom roster with real, functional players, the results are going to roll in.

Power play still sucks.

Johnny Gaudreau is fourth in the league in scoring. And yet he doesn’t seem to get the press of McDavid or Kucherov or the Colorado kids. He should blow past his career high of 30 goals with 23 already. Why the breakthrough?

If we’re calling this a breakthrough, it’s only because the breakthrough has been going on for about three or four years now and progressing as Johnny H enters his prime. Gaudreau and Sean Monahan could always rack up the points together, but it used to be Gaudreau carrying his line while Monahan got the vulture goals, but in recent years, Monahan has added a few dimensions to his game as well. Having a legitimate number 1 RW on their line with Elias Lindholm doesn’t hurt either.

Or maybe it’s because Johnny doesn’t get black out drunk at Cowboy’s anymore. But it’s probably not that, because Johnny absolutely still gets blackout drunk at Cowboy’s.

What are the Flames going to do before the deadline?

If you ask Leafs fans, it’s trade Rasmus Andersson to them, but if you ask anyone rational, it’s probably just a depth move here or there. As good as the Flames have been, they’re probably not Tampa Bay Lightning tier just yet, and unless they can swing Mark Stone, not many of the rental players out there are going to bump them up to that level.

I think they’d like a backup goalie in case anything happens to Big Save Dave, because you don’t want to have to rely on Mike Smith for anything other than wearing cool hats on the bench. Ideally, if you could murder him or trade him somewhere or something, that would help. One of the big mistakes the team has done this year is bury a really effective Michael Frolik, to the point where I see him being traded sooner rather than later. Maybe there’s something there.

But goddamn how cool would it be to get Mark Stone?

Let’s have you bitch about James Neal some more…

How about something nice? He’s the first overpaid, underachieving, head scratcher of a Brad Treliving acquisition that isn’t an ex-Hawk.

At least not yet 😉

Finally…do you want to walk with Elias?

I have bought so many scarves, floral shirts, and a Fender guitar. I want everyone watching the game to silence their cell phones, hold your applause, and shut your mouths. There is one universal truth, a tenet I hold above all else. You see it when the top lines rolls over Brent Seabrook, and you feel it when you look into Cam Ward‘s eyes, his terrified, self aware that he is Cam Ward eyes. It becomes a part of you when the game is over and it’s 5-1 for the Flames and the Hawks are salivating over Jack Hughes while Calgary looks to wrap up home ice throughout the playoffs, and that truth is…. WWE STANDS FOR “WALK. WITH.ELIAS”.

Say it with me now Sam.

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Game #45 – Flames vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Anything That’s Not These

By Sam Fels January 7, 2019 1496 0

There are myriad reasons that the NHL isn’t as popular as it could, maybe even should, be. And a lot of them are little reasons. But add them up enough, and the NHL could be a different landscape. And one of them is teams running from their retro jerseys.

Nothing pops on HD television like bright NHL jerseys, at least not ones bordered or splashed with black, on a white ice surface. The Flames’ throwbacks are a prime example. The Oilers’ old blues were. The Flyers orange. The Penguins figured out to go back to their plainer yellow, both home and road, because it contrasts better. The Islanders’ blue is another prime example.

Games on HD TV would grab eyes a lot better if both sets of jerseys pop. Look at the NBA and how their alternates almost always are brighter. Cool college football jerseys go the same route. Cast your mind to what it looks like with the retro Flames and retro Oilers away jerseys looking like on a Saturday night, and how much better it would be if all games looked this vivid.

Look at these beautiful things. Why would you douse them with unnecessary black lining and pants? It shades everything. Deadens. Why would you run from this? Especially as the Flames won their only Cup wearing these, why wouldn’t you hang onto this?

There should be a decree that you can’t wear black unless it’s actually one of your colors. Flyers, Hawks, Ducks, Kings, Sharks, Knights, Penguins and that’s it. Everyone else needs to be brighter, to make the game look better. It doesn’t sound like much, but it would make a bigger difference than you think.

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Game #45 – Flames vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 7, 2019 1194 0

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Game #45 – Flames vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 7, 2019 1263 0

Notes: That top line is going to be quite the challenge for Murphy and Dahlstrom. Gaudreau has 11 points in his last four games and Monahan has nine…Rittich can’t quite seem to fully grab the #1 job yet, as Smith got two straight starts after the turn of the calendar, but Rittich has gotten the last one and they won so expect him to go tonight…Bill Peters still hates Michael Frolik…Tkachuk also has seven points in his last four games…

Notes: Wouldn’t expect too many changes. There’s an outside shot that Jokiharju plays tonight as he came back last night, but without a morning skate or practice to bleed him back in Wednesday seems more likely…Delia will start, and he will be busy…Toews’s line absolutely destroyed the bottom six of the Penguins last night, which was curious that they weren’t eventually combatted with Crosby…Caggiula didn’t look helpless, and they’re already making noise about moving him to center, so you can look for Kruger’s name to come up in trade talks…

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Game #44 – Hawks vs. Penguins Preview/BEEEAARRRRSSSSS: This Is How You Do It

By Sam Fels January 6, 2019 1672 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 15-21-7 Penguins 23-12-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

MUNCHIN’ ON A JOE, DICK, AND STANLEY: Pensburgh

While it’s easy to look at the Kings and Hawks, two recent main forces in the NHL, falling on hard times, throw your hands up and say, “Well, that’s just the price of being good for a while,” the Penguins keep putting their thumb in that eye. And when it looked like the Pens would join the Hawks and Kings in the has-been room, they go and ruin it all by doing something stupid like ripping off 10 of 11 since the last time these two met. That has seen them tied atop the Metro division again, with the Capitals, and we’re going to do this dance forever.

It’s not much of a secret how the Penguins managed it. Matt Murray came back from the wilderness and hasn’t lost. Since that Hawks game that he missed, Murray has gone 7-0-0 while giving up just nine goals. Casey DeSmith, despite being a woman-beating dickhead, has backed him up ably, and hence it’s nearly impossible to score more than one or two against the Penguins of late. You can win a lot of games like that.

At the opposite end. having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin sure helps. Crosby has gone off for 29 points in his last 17 games, taking Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust–he of the hat trick the last time we saw the Pens–along with him. Phil Kessel has returned to the third line, though his combo with Derick Brassard has been just short of a disaster. That’s almost all Brassard’s fault, who has just not fit in The Steel City at all, at least not at center. Kris Letang is also molten-hot, and he’s basically all their drive from the back end as the bottom two pairings are a lot of construction horses in the form of Olli Maatta, Jamie Oleksiak, and Jack Johnson (he the name you know).

Given the state of the Metro, there’s little reason the Penguins can’t get back to a conference final, and if Murray is going to be like this then they could go farther. Obviously he’ll have to be that level to get past the Lightning. But a goalie and star power is just about all you need to make a run in the NHL. The Penguins have both right now in spades.

To the Hawks, Cam Ward will take tonight’s start with Collin Delia going at home against the Flames tomorrow. So duck. Drake Caggiula will make his Hawks debut tonight on the fourth line, which is where he should be. His inclusion led to the demotion of Dylan Sikura, which makes us make a frowny face. Though Sikura hadn’t scored, his metrics were really good, he’d showed and understanding with Alex DeBrincat, and Brendan Perlini just doesn’t have the same dash. But whatever, he’ll probably be back soon. Chris Kunitz seems to be drawing back in in a place where he played, throwing a useless veteran a bone for reasons we wouldn’t understand and don’t want to hear. Henri Jokiharju would likely be back tomorrow, no later than Wednesday for sure.

This is not the time to be playing the Penguins, and especially at the Not-Igloo where they will get their matchups and will harass a Hawks defense that simply can’t escape its own zone. That three-pass bullshit the Hawks still insist on using to breakout will get them slaughtered tonight, so they need to play the Pens game and get it the fuck out and get it the fuck up the ice. Otherwise the Penguins loaded forward corps is going to go nuts. If the Hawks do that, it should be at least a fast, entertaining one. Until Cam Ward melts from the inside.

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Game #44 – Hawks vs. Penguins Spotlight: Jake Guentzel, A Friend In Need?

By Sam Fels January 6, 2019 1442 0

Last week, the Penguins signed Jake Guentzel to a five-year extension starting next season, totaling $30M. Pretty simple stuff as he was coming out of his entry-level deal. He put up 22 goals last year, on pace for over 30 this year, and players that put up those kind of numbers in their first few years get paid around $6 million. Clean and easy.

Not so much. Looking a little deeper, Guentzel has been Sidney Crosby’s main running-buddy since he came up to the NHL halfway through the Penguins second Cup season of ’16-’17. And their numbers together are great. But due to injuries or line-shuffling, Guentzel has spent enough time away from Crosby that we can see what he really might be. And his numbers away from #87 are downright terrible. Take a look:

Corsi-percentage with/without Crosby: 55.9/47.8

Shot-percentage: 56.1/48.3

Scoring-chance percentage: 55.0/46.7

High-danger chance percentage: 54.6/44.9

27 of Guentzel’s career 46 even-strength goals have come with Crosby, so he has managed to score with others. But obviously, those rates of possession are noticeable.

The real question for the Penguins is how much trouble does Guentzel’s new deal affect whatever else the Penguins want to do going forward. This is not a team that’s going to be going through a rebuild anytime soon, and any year with both Crosby and Malkin still playing is a year the Pens are going to try and win. The Penguins only have about $10 million in space next year and only around 14 players signed. While Derick Brassard and Riley Sheehan haven’t done anything in black and gold that’s going to cause anyone to write any fanfic about them, their roles of #3 and #4 centers are going to have to be filled. The way Casey DeSmith has bailed out Matt Murray this season, he’s going to get a raise or the Pens are going to have to find another backup.

The prospect line isn’t gutted but isn’t gushing either, with Kasper Bjorkqvist and Nikita Pavlychev looking to join in the next year or two. But neither look to be huge difference makers. This is all going to result in more Phil Kessel trade rumors to open up even more cap space for whatever the Penguins deem they need. More centers? A second-pairing d-man who isn’t an affront to society like Jack Johnson?

Then again, there’s no reason that for most, if not all, of the five years Guentzel is signed he’s going to play with Crosby. Which means he’ll produce. And you’ll get your $6M worth. But couldn’t a lot of players? Will the Penguins be tempted to put future kids on Crosby’s line to give them a softer landing? Will Guentzel have to move aside if they do, and will he produce if he does? Maybe Hornqvist’s name comes up as well. But both Kessel and Hornqvist score wherever you put them. Guentzel can’t really make that claim.

It would have been the ballsiest of calls to cash in on Guentzel, whose value would have been highest this year or before the season. And you don’t just move a winger that Crosby clearly likes playing with. You find your savings elsewhere. Either way, Guentzel probably owes Crosby a few nice dinners out now that he’s rich.

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Game #44 – Hawks vs. Penguins Q&A: The Kessel Run In 12 Parsecs

By Sam Fels January 6, 2019 1602 0

The Kessel Run writes for Pensburgh.com. You can follow him on Twitter @Gbehanna.

When we last saw the Penguins, they were struggling and just outside the playoff spots. They have ripped off 9 of 10 since. What’s been the difference?

I think the biggest difference to the Penguins’ change of play since the Dec. 12 game has been the goaltending, and the reemergence of Matt Murray to what looks to be his pre-injury / Stanley Cup-winning form. Since Murray’s return on Dec. 15, he’s gone 7-0, with a .959 SV% through the month of December. Casey DeSmith has also held his own, winning three out of his last four games since the Pens last met the Hawks. Winger Bryan Rust has also exploded on the score sheet since then, alleviating the pressure of the top stars, notching a hat-trick in that loss to Chicago and tallying eight goals and 13 points to close out December.

The Pens just re-upped Jake Guenztel for five years at $6 million per year. Good deal?

Jake Guentzel has been a constant alongside Sidney Crosby for a while now, and he’s even made a name for himself with his crazy goal-scoring prowess in the postseason. I think every Penguins fan knew an extension was coming. It was just a matter of when and figuring out how Guentzel’s new deal would affect the team’s salary cap with so much money already locked up to big-name guys. Luckily, the salary cap looks to be increasing next year, which was one of the reasons GM Jim Rutherford was able to get the deal done now. Given Guentzel’s consistently positive possession metrics, his knack for scoring big goals, and chemistry with Sid, $30 million over the next five years looks like a great deal for all parties.

Why hasn’t Derick Brassard worked out? It seemed a perfect fit on the third line.

Derick Brassard becomes more polarizing with each passing game. Jim Rutherford even called Brassard out for his lack of overall production since the trade. Was this done to try and light a fire under Brassard? Who knows. However, Brassard holds a sub-50 CF% on the season, which blows given the role he has on the team. While his linemates have been shuffled around, he’s just never looked comfortable for whatever reason on the third line. Possibly due to more defensive responsibilities on more of a “checking” line. When given the off chance to move up the lineup, to play on Crosby’s left wing for example, he’s said he loves playing there with Sid. But everyone knows that’s not why we traded for him. He was supposed to be that cornerstone in the bottom-six like Nick Bonino was during the two Cup runs, but Brassard has never found his groove. Only time will tell if he’s shipped out in a package or something along those lines before the trade deadline.

What do you think the Penguins will do before the deadline and what will the spring look like for them?

Jim Rutherford’s favorite unofficial holiday may be the NHL Trade Deadline. Rutherford has never been shy of making a deal, especially while in Pittsburgh. With that said, there are a few moves I could see the veteran GM making to bolster his team for another championship run. Trading the aforementioned Brassard is a package deal may be a possibility if Rutherford feels he’s not getting anything out of him. Young defenseman Olli Maatta is another player whose name has been floated around in recent weeks and months as part of a larger package deal. Realistically, I could see Rutherford looking to bolster his defense again by swapping Maatta for a different face. The same goes for Brassard and the third-line center role. Whatever value both players have now and leading up to the deadline remains to be seen. As you may know, Rutherford has already shipped out the Penguins’ top prospect in Daniel Sprong earlier in the year, so prospect depth isn’t really a strength the team has for wheeling and dealing. The team has its 2019 1st-round pick still with them, so that may be a vital piece in whatever Rutherford decides to do.

It will be another interesting spring for sure. After the horrendously slow start the Penguins were on, they are now riding a season-defining eight-game win streak at the moment. Wins are more crucial as the season draws to a close, obviously. With goaltending looking better and better with each game, the Pens are in position to close out the 2018-19 season in pretty good shape, with their eyes on yet another Stanley Cup.

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Game #44 – Hawks vs. Penguins Douchebag Du Jour: Casey DeSmith Is A Trashbag You’ll Never Hear About

By Sam Fels January 6, 2019 2246 0

So here’s a scenario for you, and one that you might want to prepare for. Matt Murray can’t ever dislodge Casey DeSmith from the starter’s role in the Penguins crease. Because of the mediocre nature of the Metro, and the star power of the Penguins, they could get to a conference final without a huge struggle. And the narrative will of course be how the Penguins unearthed yet another young goalie, and how they just keep going like a machine. “How do they do it?” everyone will ask. Worse yet, DeSmith may get lauded heavily, and perhaps even touted as a redemption story.

That’s because Casey DeSmith is a piece of shit.

As University of New Hampshire, DeSmith was arrested for viciously beating his girlfriend while drunk. He repeatedly jumped on her, as well as punching her. DeSmith was suspended and eventually dismissed from the UNH program. DeSmith was able to avoid jail-time by going into alcohol and anger counseling, as well as community service under a diversion agreement.

Of course, you’ll never hear this mentioned about DeSmith, as most hockey media will dismiss anything in college or juniors as “boys being boys.” That doesn’t mean that DeSmith should be barred from playing hockey or even the NHL, given that the case is now closed. Though it makes one wonder why the Penguins were in such a hurry to sign him.

But it should be a part of any story about DeSmith, but it never is. It’ll be cataloged as an “obstacle” that DeSmith had to overcome on his way to NHL glory, no different than an injury or struggling play or the like. DeSmith can be a successful goalie, and we can separate what he did from that. But what shouldn’t happen is that being ignored, and given the disgusting nature of his crimes, it’s something he should have to carry as well. If the NHL and the media alike were ever serious about this issue, he would.

But listen to any broadcast struggle to talk about Austin Watson now, and you know we’re a long way from that.

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