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We know that it’s hockey tradition for the Rangers to sign a big-ticket free agent and then watch it turn into ash in their mouth instantly. It’s generally the way things have been since they signed three-quarters of the 80s Oilers to win their one Cup. In fact, maybe it’s penance for that. Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Wade Redden, Nikolai Zherdev (though he was a trade), Eric Lindros, one of their Alex Kovalev trials, we could go on. Any hockey fan could probably recite the list. This is why we can’t wait for them to go against the grain of their rebuild, sign Artemi Panarin for $11 million a year, and then watch him score 22 goals per year after they scrape him off the pavement in Dumbo twice a week. It’s what the gods want, it’s what they require.

So Kevin Shattenkirk is just another in a long line. But man, this went pear-shaped pretty badly.

It was no secret that Shattenkirk wanted to be a Ranger. He’s from Connecticut, grew up a fan, and it’s a main reason why the Blues shipped him off in his free agent year to the Capitals. It has not gone well.

Shattenkirk missed half of last year through injury, though his 23 points in 46 games is just about what you’d expect from him. He’d been a consistent 40-45 point d-man in St. Louis, But this year…egad. Shattenkirk has played in 38 games, but has only amassed 11 points and just two goals. He’s never been a bastion of health, playing 81 games just twice in his career and missing 36, nine, and 26 games three of the past four seasons. But this production is just putrid. Stanky. Pungent, as it were.

So what’s going on? Well, it might not be as bad as it looks on the surface.

One, Shattenkirk is on a wretched team at the very base of a rebuild. So even if he were Paul Coffey circa ’85, there aren’t a lot of players here who can consistently bury whatever chances he’s creating. So let’s get that out of the way. And relative to his team, Shattenkirk is driving the play just about as well as he ever has. His +2.95 CF% relative is among the best marks in his career. His +2.47 SCF% relative to the Rangers is among his St. Louis numbers, though not among his best. Same story with his +5.94 relative in high-danger chances. Shattenkirk is still getting his team to the other end of the ice and the good areas better than any other d-man on the team. And he’s not getting the benefit of extra offensive zone starts, as his 59% mark this year is just about his career-average.

It’s hard not to see his personal 2.7 shooting-percentage as a blinking red light, as that’s half of what was his previous career-low. That’s one problem. Overall, the 7.9% the Rangers shoot while he’s on the ice is just a touch below what his career has seen, but nothing scandalous. It’s the power play that’s the problem. Namely, the Rangers couldn’t find their dick if you put neon lights and a buzzer on it when they have the man-advantage. The Rangers are shooting 5.9% when Shattenkirk is on the power play, and that’s almost a third of his previous career-low. This is a player who routinely racked up 20+ power play points per season, and that was with the wayward children of Missouri. This is almost criminal. And the main reason that Shattenkirk has all of three power play points.

Which sort of has us dreaming of a bad-contract swap, although we admit this is about as drug-addled of a fantasy as you could imagine. The Rangers would probably love nothing better than to get out from the two years remaining on Shattenkirk’s $6.6M hit. And he does have some value if you can put him on a team with other talent, not just placeholders and others who simply got lost at Penn Station who then had a jersey and pads tossed on them. He may never live up to that contract, but he doesn’t have to be in the wilderness either.

In a fantasy world, you could convince Brent Seabrook the cuisine in New York just has to be tried for a full season, throw in a pick or a prospect, sell the Rangers on “veteran leadership” for a young team, and take Shattenkirk in return. A new CBA/lockout in two years is going to arm everyone with compliance buyouts anyway, so the Rangers wouldn’t have to sit with the remaining 43 years on Seabrook’s contract anyway. And the Hawks could have what Erik Gustafsson is trying to be anyway, though with more mobility.

But that won’t happen, and the world won’t collapse if it doesn’t. Maybe you can’t wash off Rangers stink anyway.

 

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Beth Boyle Machlan has been our Rangers correspondent for a while now. Follow her @bethmachlan.

The Rangers are at the base of a rebuild, one which some Hawks fans wish they could or would do. On the current roster, who are players that will be around when the Rangers are ready to matter again?

Who will be around? IDEFK. Marc Staal. Marc Staal will be around forever.

You must get this question a lot, but Henrik Lundqvist: not a great year for the second season in a row, and two more years to go on a deal and he’s 36. We know he has no interest in being traded. Is he just going to finish out this contract, seeing as how it’s unlikely the Rangers are going to be competitive anyway?

I really don’t see Lundqvist leaving. I think he’s going down with the ship. As for “not a great year” … in his defense (LOL), he has no defense. I mean, none. They bleed shots. He’s had some amazing games, and some terrible ones — he’s never in between. I would love to know what’s going on in his head right now about what all this means for his career, but he seems to have chosen loyalty over personal fame. I blame Alain Vigneault, but then I blame him for pretty much everything.

We know that under Alain Vigneault, some fans chafed at the under-use of Pavel Buchnevich. Does his 13 points so far make the case that maybe he wasn’t?

Ah, Pasha. Yes, AV deployed Buchnevich really poorly. But then, Buch is sort of the princess and the pea of hockey players. He really needs everything to be aligned in order to produce, but when he does, he does, and it’s really not rocket science to figure out what he needs, like a spot on PP1 (2 goals vs. Carolina on Tuesday, oh hey look at that, why is this hard?).

How much are the Rangers going to try and get rid of before the trade deadline?

Before the deadline? Depends on who comes calling. I’m thinking Zucc (sob). Maybe Kreider? Hayes is sitting in an airport somewhere just waiting to be told what flight to take. And y’all were right about Brendan Smith; I admit it. Someone take him and I’ll throw in Adam McQuaid, too.

 

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The NHL deadline can get pretty stupid, and somehow it always seems to involve the Rangers at its stupidest. Remember last year when Rick Nash was going to be the main piece for any team looking to get over the hump? Turned out Nash was the same hump he’d always been, and he tripped up the Bruins pretty hard.

So we move to this year, and the rebuilding Rangers have boys for sale, and most of the chatter seems to stem around Captain Stairwell, Kevin Hayes (if you don’t know the origin of that name, here you go). Somehow, Hayes has been stealing $5M a year from the Rangers for a few years now, but this is the last time he’ll get to do that. So he’s a natural move at the deadline for a team looking for…

…well, what exactly? Picture what Kevin Hayes is. You can’t, can you? Nope. He’s the build-a-Ranger that they’ve all been for the past decade, a faceless player in a faceless jersey plying their trade in an increasingly faceless arena for reasons no one can ascertain. It’s the Rangers, they’ve been making up the numbers for years. It says he’s been consistently putting up 40 points a season, but we doubt any Rangers fan remembers any single one of them.

He’s big, but has never really played to it. He’s mobile, but not in a way you’d notice. But hey, if you’re not on a top line and you stand around long enough with enough time both at evens and on the power play, you can probably run into 40 points. And some team is going to give up a higher draft pick than you’d think for the pleasure of watching Hayes’s confused gape with a confused gape of their own wondering why it wasn’t more than this. He’s a Chia Pet. Once you get it you can’t help but wonder, “What was the point?”

We thought the Hawks erred in not signing Hayes out of college, but we can’t honestly see where it would have made the slightest difference. He’s a warm body. Glorified oxygen tank. Oh sure, there’s a nice analytic angle to his season now, where for the first time he’s significantly above the team-rate. Also happens to be his free agent year. No connection there, right? You know the last time he was above the team-rate metrically? Coming out of his entry-level deal.

He’s going to sign for way too much money in Florida or something next year, and then they’ll wonder why he and they suck. You can set your watch to this stuff.

 

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Notes: Little bit of intrigue at the morning skate as Delia was first off the ice but Ward was in the starter’s net. There would be utterly no reason to play Ward unless the full tank was on, which is what some want? We’re not sure anymore…The Hawks have tried seven d-men twice in the last two years. Both against the Devils, and they gave up 15 goals combined. It just can’t be that confusing. Anyway, expect Koekkoek to be back in his suit tonight…other than that it’s window dressing. Kampf will be on a wing for some reason…Encouraging thing is even though they got stomped, Saad gave Kane’s line better possession numbers, because he’s actually quick and gets the puck back, unlike Anisimov…

Notes: Could be a couple returnees for the Rangers. Hayes could slot back in at #2 center, McQuaid might get back in somewhere on the blue line…Kreider has one goal in his last nine games, as he seeks safe haven outside of whatever the hell it is the Rangers are doing…Zibanejad went off for four points against the Hurricanes last game…Buchnevich had two goals on the power play against the Canes as well…Lundqvist gave up two goals on Tuesday, only the third time in his last 14 starts he’s held a team under three…

 

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I’ll admit we’ve done something of a bridge-pose, if not an outright wheel, trying to justify our Connor Murphy affection. We didn’t think trading Niklas Hjalmarsson before he became…well, Brent Seabrook, was a bad idea. It’s actually the kind of thing the Hawks probably should have done more of. Except the only other time they did it, giving up on Brandon Saad the first time, only netted them Artem Anisimov. But just because you didn’t execute a good idea properly doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea. And Hjalmarsson got them Murphy, and let’s just say that he has yet to convince all Hawks fans it was worth it. It also doesn’t help that Hammer continues to play well in Arizona, as you’ll soon see.

While I remain a metrics-heavy analyst, one of my main problems is that no one, as far as I can tell, has weighted the rates or possession-numbers to account for where a shift starts and whom against. We have it adjusted for score of the game, time, and venue, but not for the individual shifts. So one person’s 52% share might be awfully different than another’s. For example, Duncan Keith‘s metrics, a 50.1 CF% aren’t horribly out of line with what he used to put up, but 60% of his shifts starting in the offensive zone is. So you have to account for that.

So with Murphy, we have some unique circumstances. First off, only Patrik Nemeth of the Avalanche starts less shifts in the offensive zone than Murphy does, at 27%. That accounts for shifts that start on faceoffs and on-the-fly. If you go by simply faceoffs, Murphy has the fifth-lowest percentage in the offensive zone. So either way it’s obvious to see he’s being buried in the dungeon by place on the ice when he gets on the ice. .

The names around him are the aforementioned Nemeth, Hjalmarsson, his partner Dahlstrom, Andy Greene, Roman Polak, Ben Lovejoy (and those two names are going to make you shudder so hard your chiropractor will be rubbing his/her hands), Damon Severson, Alex Edler, Andrew MacDonald. Among those bottom-10, as it were, Murphy’s 45.1 CF% is about average. The outliers are, of course, Hjalmarsson and Andrew MacDonald (what?). So he’s not standout but he’s not dragging behind.

Of course, on this list, that doesn’t cover it. Most all of these guys are third-pairing players not playing the competition that Murphy is. Greene and Severson are an exception, and so is Hjalmarsson. However, Hammer is paired with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, whereas Murphy gets Dahlstrom and his 80s hair. That was cool for like 10 games. It has not been lately, and very much so.

On the scoring-chance side, it’s a little less encouraging. On that list of those who are buried, Murphy’s 45.3% mark is on the lower side, though hardly the lowest. Again, Hjalmarsson stands out at above water and significantly so, as does Nemeth’s 52%. Though one wonders in a Dahlstrom-Murphy pairing that’s either been mostly behind a defensively declining Toews or David Kampf, who exactly is going to create chances. But here we are.

It’s hard to get a read on, and Murphy hasn’t been bad, but it’s hard to conclude he hasn’t been behind his counterpart in that trade that forever broke the Quenneville-Bowman relationship. Last year, Murphy’s metrics were actually really good with Brent Seabrook, other-worldy with Michal Kempny (fucking fuckin’ fuck!), and pretty good with Erik Gustafsson as well. In each case, he was getting at least double the offensive-zone starts than he is this year, though, and in two of those examples he was partnered with at least an offensively capable/mobile partner. I’m not convinced Dahlstrom is either. But we also know it did not go so well with Duncan Keith, where the competition kicked up. But was that Murphy or Keith? It seems impossible to tell.

It would behoove the Hawks to get Murphy a real partner for the rest of the year, and one who has hope of getting the Hawks up the ice at any point. Jokiharju is the first name that comes to mind, but would you be doing him any favors to almost never start him in the offensive zone? Big ask. Gustafsson is not equipped to handle that zone-start task or the competition. And that’s basically it. And until Murphy gets someone like that as a partner, it’s going to be hard to tell what the Hawks have here.

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  vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 16-22-9   Devils 17-20-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BADA BING ENTHUSIASTS: In Lou We Trust

Sky point, Bobby Heenan.

After taking two of the West’s best to overtime, and then losing in that gimmick when their slow defense wasn’t really prepared for 3-on-3, the Hawks venture for a week in New York to face some of the East’s sludge. There’s always sludge involved when you’re in New Jersey, but this time around it also applies to the team that resides there.

The Devils aren’t vying for a playoff spot this time around, like they somehow miracle’d their way to last year. One, Taylor Hall is hurt now, though he was over a point-per-game when he was fit. This time though, they aren’t getting goalie performance from out of a top hat, as Keith Kinkaid has returned to being Keith Kinkaid, Cory Schneider is now made out of boogers and adhesive, and they’re pinning their hopes on neophyte MacKenzie Blackwood. Somehow, the Devils only have the 12th-worst SV% at even-strength, even though both Kinkaid and Schneider can’t see .900 with a telescope.

It also doesn’t help that this isn’t a very good defensive team, with the fifth-worst xGA/60 in the league, and not much better in attempts against. It might have something to do with not having a d-man worth a damn on the roster. Andy Greene is a million years old and you’ve never heard of him anyway, so he’s the perfect Devils captain. Sami Vatanen has always been a power play weapon only, Will Butcher continues a long tradition of prized college free agents who end up being a fart in the wind, and Mirco Mueller has a really long neck. Damon Severson is probably worth holding onto, but that’s probably it. Look at this blue line and you’ll react like the business manager to Kramer. “I don’t know what this is supposed to be.”

Up front there’s some hope, even without the injured Hall. Nico Hischier is putting up some pretty impressive underlying numbers in a junior Bergeron act. Kyle Palmieri continues to score goals and also continues to make you wonder why you should give a shit. Miles Wood is a porn name. While this is a more dynamic and entertaining Devils team than the ones of yore, it still needs more talent than its got to be relevant…well, relevant maybe for the first time. I’m not sure they were relevant even when they were winning Cups. Certainly no one other than the highway-side strip club patrons bothered to notice.

For the Hawks, not too many changes one would think. Cam Ward will get the start to give Delia nearly a full week to reset after two tough losses his last two starts. Slater Koekkoek could make his debut tonight, and the Hawks might actually dress seven d-men to do so, but we won’t find out until gametime. The clear option is to scratch Seabrook and let Koekkoek run around on the third-pairing with either Carl Dahlstrom or Henri Jokiharju, but we all know Coach Cool Youth Pastor isn’t going to scratch Seabrook unless you dangled him off a cliff. Dahlstrom could face the axe as well.

The Devils murdered the Hawks twice last year, and basically killed Corey Crawford while they were at it. While not the most skilled, this is an extremely fast team and the Hawks couldn’t cope. The same rules as Saturday apply here, which the Hawks followed pretty well for the first 40. None of the complicated breakouts, just get the puck up to the forwards or ahead of them aw quickly as possible. Any missteps will be pounced on by the Devils’ quick forwards, so the simpler the better. Blackwood has looked very good in his brief foray, but put him under pressure and see what happens. The Hawks are slightly better equipped for these track meets than they were, though still not their strength.

There’s four games before the Hawks hit the bye. They probably need them all to not be buried by the time the bye is over and all those games in hand are made up. They can’t say their season is over, or act like it, even if we can. So if they’re intent on still a death rattle, it probably has to be now.

 

 

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It is truly strange how quietly young goalies sneak into the league. Carter Hart is about the only goalie you hear mentioned as a future building block for any team, despite how many teams need goalies. Even here in town, you didn’t hear Collin Delia‘s name until last year, and he wasn’t even mentioned as a possible future starter until this season. Teams just arrive at a starting goalie, almost by accident.

And considering it might be the most important position in the four major sports, it’s startling that it is that way. Your team drafts a quarterback and a city’s entire economic future depends on it. Everything is dissected. If there’s one at the top of the draft, you get him. And if you don’t, everyone thinks you’re an idiot. Remember when the Texans passed on Vince Young for Mario Williams? People lost their goddamn minds! So why aren’t goalies like that?

In the last draft, the first goalie was taken in the second round. The year before that there was one taken in the first round. The year before that, Hart was the first one taken in the second round. Given the outsized importance of the position, shouldn’t the draft look like your fantasy draft and a goalie taken with like the first 15 picks? It’s the position you have to get most right, and yet it doesn’t seem like anyone has a surefire system for doing so.

Look around the best goaltenders in the league and you kind of get the impression every team found them by accident. Pekka Rinne was an 8th-round pick. Ben Bishop is on his fifth team. Robin Lehner is on his fourth. David Rittich came from nowhere. There are a handful of European signings, where the goalie system seems to be completely different and yet no one is trying it here. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy and John Gibson appear to be drafted for exactly this, going in the first and second round, respectively.

MacKenzie Blackwood is an example. He had a .920 the last two years he was in the OHL, but can you really get a read on a goalie there behind and stopping children. His numbers in the AHL are hardly inspiring, but again, you could be playing behind any collection of janitors and gym teachers there instead of prospects. And you could be playing in a different system than the one you’ll get in the NHL. Corey Crawford‘s numbers in the AHL weren’t all that inspiring either, but all the good d-men the Hawks had were on the Hawks. He never managed a .920 there, and yet look what the Hawks go.

The Devils future may hinge on Blackwood, as you can’t really be good without a goalie. And if you can get one that is young that you can keep cheap for a while, that’s even better, much like a QB on a rookie deal. If he’s not good, then the Devils are going to either have to trade for one and lose good players, or sign one and use up cap space. You’d think teams would be better at developing the most important position, and they’re just not. Looking around, Rinne, Vasilevskiy, Gibson are basically the only premier goalies on the team that drafted them (fuck off, Jonathan Quick stans). You can throw Henrik Lundqvist on there if you want, and maybe Carey Price. Connor Hellebuyck? Is he officially on that list yet? Hard to say. Braden Holtby is another.

Even being kind, that’s still over half the teams in the league who are fishing or have. You’d think they could do better. But this is hockey, baby.

 

 

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@HellBlazerVice is yet another creature we pulled out of the bin marked, “Unmentionables.” We took him home and fed him and now we can’t get rid of him. 

It’s been quite a comedown for the Devils from last year. Is it just the goaltending that’s landed them here?
I’d say it’s mostly the goaltending- they’re virtually the same team as they were last year with regards to their possession and expected goal numbers, but they’re losing a lot because no one can make a stop. Their horrid goaltending combined with John Hynes trying to get the Devils to play a faster style like the Leafs has generally put them in a tough spot because most of the time they’re down 3-0 early and they stop playing aggressively because they’re too worried about putting themselves in a deeper hole. They’ve also had a really tough schedule to start the season- they’ve played a third of their games against legitimate cup contenders or elite teams in Toronto, Tampa, Nashville, Winnipeg, San Jose, Washington and Vegas so that’s not helping either. They’re doing surprisingly better without Hall this year mainly because in at least half of the games where Hall’s been hurt, they’ve gotten strong goaltending from their top goaltending prospect MacKenzie Blackwood, which has given them the confidence to play a bit more aggressive. Outside of Zacha, Butcher, and Wood most of the skaters have met or are exceeding expectations so it’s probably safe to say that the goaltending is the issue.
Is Cory Schneider permanently broken?
 
Shero is just as tight lipped as Lou so it’s hard to tell what Schneider’s status is, but I remember seeing a quote in 31 Thoughts which said that there was some concern about Schneider’s injury being career ending- and I think that might be the case. He just can’t move the way he used to and over the past few years he’s been dealing with a lot of core muscle injuries to go with the hip problems he’s had so that’s going to affect him. He turns 33 in March so the chances of him returning to form are minimal. They can’t give him game time to work out his issues because they’ve got to try and win games in order to have a better chance at keeping Taylor Hall around. His days as a Devil are numbered and he’s probably going to get an amnesty buyout after the inevitable lockout in 2020.
What are the Devils going to do with Taylor Hall? He has one year left on his contract…
The good news is that unlike the Sens or Isles with Karlsson and Tavares, the Devils don’t exactly have the same issues those teams have. Unlike Mean Gene Melnyk, Josh Harris isn’t a cheapskate and the Devils lack of spending has more to do with Shero showing a ton of restraint and not overpaying for mid-tier free agents. Not only do they have the cap space, but they’re probably more than willing to give Hall the money to stay in New Jersey. Unlike the Isles, the Devils have a good GM and aren’t going to replace him with a ghoul like Lou and so far there isn’t a can’t-miss free agent destination like the Leafs- Nashville would fit that bill but playing with Nico and Kyle Palmieri is probably more enticing than playing with Kyle Turris and Colton Sissons on a contender. Re-signing John Hynes should help their chances as he seems to like playing for Hynes. They’re also in a good spot to retool the current roster given that Shero’s trade record is excellent, they might be able to get one of the really good free agents in this year’s class (or alternatively, his good buddy Jordan Eberle) with the $30+ million in cap space they have going into next season and they’ve obviously got a lottery pick with a lottery ball specialist so maybe they end up with one of Hughes, Kakko or Cozens. My guess is that they’ll offer him a blank cheque on July 1st and either he takes the money or waits to see if a contender emerges while having the Devils massive offer in his back pocket as a contingency plan.
At least there appears to be a step forward from Nico Hischier?
The thing about Nico is that you have to watch him closely to appreciate what he brings like someone like Patrice Bergeron or Patrik Elias. He’s not going to be lighting the scoresheet up with four-point games or hat tricks but the Devils have been winning the possession battle when he’s been on the ice. Considering he doesn’t get power play time and Rick Kowalsky has no idea how to run a power play his numbers there aren’t great, but he’s scoring at a better rate than he did this year and that’s probably going to go up once Hall returns from injury and Kowalsky gets his head out of his ass.
The Devils were a rebuilding team last year that spasmed a playoff spot. Is it possible for them to be much worse in the standings but actually moving forward as a team?
If you ask me, moving forward means moving away from the chickenshit conservative style they had towards the end of Lou’s tenure and moving towards the kind of style that teams like Toronto and Tampa play. While they’re trying to do that and it’s not necessarily working, it’s better they do this than go back to playing the chickenshit style they played under DeBoer where the games would be much closer but they couldn’t win because they lacked the skill to win. The thing is with the way they’re playing, it’s going to be much easier to insert difference makers than it would be while playing a conservative style that relies on bad, risk averse players. This is important because they’ve done a better job drafting and most of the guys they’ve drafted are smaller, high skill guys. Someone like 2018 1st rounder Ty Smith- a 5’10”, 175-lb defenseman with great puck skills, is now much easier to play in a system where his puck skills matter rather than one where his puck skills have to be toned down to fit into the safer style. As long as they’re not going back to the ineffective conservative tactics that have failed them in recent years I’m fine with them losing while trying to play a more effective style.

 

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It says something of the nondescript nature of this Devils team that were still left to talk about the ones from the distant past in order to stir any kind of emotion. But that’s where we are. There’s nothing about this Devils team worth getting in a furor, or even a tizzy, over.

Normally, a team that defines an era is a celebration of it, no matter the sport. The Hawks moved along the line of the Red Wings in dominating the game through skill. The Penguins as well, with even greater star power. The Patriots through ruthless planning and quarterback excellence. The Cowboys of the 90s the greater speed needed. The Bulls on having the greatest player to play and killer defense at the right moment. You see where we’re going here.

The Devils were an example of the disintegrating of the sport. Their excellence came when the sport was impossible to watch, when the tactics employed were meant to destroy anything good about hockey. And they did it better than anyone–the clutching, grabbing, trapping, the boredom–which only made it harder to watch. As more and more eyes turned away from hockey, the Devils flourished and only expedited that process, and then more teams tried to copy them. They were sports’ Invisible Boy, only flourishing when no one was watching.

Of course, that only brought glory to fucking northern New Jersey, which is somehow perfect. A place no one wants to be with a team that no one wants to watch that no one could get rid of. It’s not even a place. It’s an area. It’s somewhere you might know on a map. Maybe. You think of landmarks anywhere else. Think of New Jersey, you basically think of sludge and pollution and highways to literally anywhere else. Maybe the airport. The Devils reflected that in hockey form.

It looks like hockey and the NHL has finally recovered from that era, with scoring up and more creative and fun players than perhaps they’ve ever had. It took this long. You can thank the Devils for that.

 

 

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