Sam Fels – Page 110 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Rangers: When A Team Runs In Circles, It’s A Maddon World

By Sam Fels March 28, 2019 1368 0

vs.

DATES & TIMES: Thursday 3:05, Saturday 7:05, Sunday 3:05

TV: WGN Thursday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

NILL ESCAPEES: Lone Star Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jon Lester vs. Mike Minor

Yu Darvish vs. Edinson Volquez

Cole Hamels vs. Lance Lynn

CUBS PROBABLE LINEUP

Ben Zobrist – 2B

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

David Bote – DH

RANGERS PROBABLE LINEUP

Shin-Soo Choo – DH

Rougned Odor – 2B

Elvis Andrus – SS

Nomar Mazara – RF

Joey Gallo – LF

Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B

Ronald Guzman – 1B

Jeff Mathis – C

Delino Deshields Jr. – CF

At least the offseason is over.

It’s been a long few months for Cubs fans. Not only did they have to sit and stew over two consecutive losses at home to end the season with two runs scored total (must be managed by Jeremy Colliton), but then their owner went and sat on the front office’s signing hands for months. So the relief that they’ll actually run out of the dugout is immeasurable today, if only to not see Tom Ricketts’s fucking face again. Let’s line it up and play.

The narratives are well known, but the one that will get overplayed from here on out is the status of Joe Maddon. Maddon didn’t turn out to be as innovative as we thought. He never shuts up even though he has little to say. The gimmicks and quirks have run a little dry. On the other hand, he took a beat up team last year through 43-straight days or whatever it ended up being and humped them (there’s an image for you) to 95 wins. We might be bored of all the lights and whistles, but the players aren’t and that’s what matters. Just don’t turn Steve Cishek into silly puddy again.

Another one Cubs fans might become hyper aware of is Opening Day starter Jon Lester and his decline. Lester was able to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge his way through the season last year, but his strikeout-rate sank, his hard-contact against rose, and he basically had his defense to thank for it all. And now he’s 35. The BABIP Dragon can be a cruel foe. You won’t find a grindy-er guy than Lester who will sit on the corners no matter what, and maybe he’s got one last surge in him to be the guy he’s been. He’s certainly a bellwether on this team, and the rotation is buffeted enough that it can probably survive if he’s just huckin’ dead fish out there by July.

The other big story of the series is Yu Darvish returning to the Cubs and returning to Texas. A lot of where the Cubs go hinges on what Darvish can provide, as he’s something of a new acquisition this season. If he stays healthy. Which is a huge if, as you’re talking about a guy who hasn’t seen 200 innings since 2013 and is coming off an injury-ruined campaign. Spring training was fun, he looks good, but everyone looks good until they get hit. It feels boom-or-bust.

Other than that, the lineup could still be doomsday gun. The bullpen will be an adventure for a bit, until Pedro Strop comes in and everything will be fine. And remember, Carl Edwards Jr. is great until August. Worry about it then.

To the Rangers, who somehow are in the last year of their stay in Arlington because it’s like 18-years-old and that’s totally outdated and fuck you that’s why. Fuckin’ Texas. Anyway, moving into a new stadium in the middle of a rebuild is always a choice, but here we are. The Rangers are gonna be bad, the Angels, A’s, and Astros especially are going to eat their innards on the highway all year, and it’s going to be fucking hot as balls.

The rotation is reclamation projects galore, with Shelby Miller, Drew Smyly, and Lance Lynn populating it. Hell, Mike Minor, the starter today, is one. The hope is probably to get these guys looking like something before the deadline and flogging them for whatever they can scrape off the pavement. You don’t make long-term plans around Lance Lynn, in the same vein as friends and salad and such.

In the lineup, only Nomar Mazara–who seriously looks like he’s about to destroy a small town every time he steps into the box–and Ronald Guzman figure to be around when the Rangers matter again. Guzman doesn’t project to be a star, and Mazara has had three goes at the American League without punching through. So clock’s ticking. This is the first year Elvis Andrus will look to his right and not see Adrian Beltre, so he might spend the whole year in black and playing Smiths records. Which we all should when it comes to the absence of Beltre. Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo are here for your strikeouts, home runs, and Cousin Vinny jokes.

Hey Hey Holy Mackerel…

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Royals: …Adds Up At The Bottom

By Sam Fels March 27, 2019 1496 0

vs.

DATES AND TIMES: Thursday 3:15, Saturday 1:15, Sunday 1:15

TV: NBCSN Chicago Thursday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

YOU WANNA TALK SOME JIVE?: Royals Review

PROBABLE STARTERS

Thursday: Carlos Rodon vs. Brad Keller

Saturday: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Some Whatsit

Sunday: Lucas Giolito vs. Some Whosit

PROJECTED WHITE SOX LINEUP

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Yolmer Sanchex – 2B

Jose Abreu – DH

Yonder Alonso – 1B

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Daniel Palka – RF

Welington Castillo – C

Tim Anderson – SS

Adam Engel – CF

PROJECTED ROYALS LINEUP

Adalberto Mondesi – SS

Whit Merrifield – 2B

Alex Gordon – LF

Jorge Soler – RF

Ryan O’Hearn – 1B

Hunter Dozier – 3B

Lucas Duda – DH

Martin Maldonado – C

Billy Hamilton – CF

Yeah, we’re gonna do this all season. Fuck it.

Despite most Sox fans protests and wishes, they will actually commence and play out a season this spring and summer, and it starts with a pretty soft landing in Kansas City. The Royals might be another team along with the Tigers the Sox can definitely look down on when all is said and done. That’s not saying much, but hey, it’s something. Can you believe it was only three and a half years ago the Royals were in consecutive World Series?

We’ll start with the Southside Nine, who will see Carlos Rodon and his quest to not end up in the bullpen start on Opening Day for the first time. Rodon’s search for a third pitch will go a long way to seeing that quest completed, and maybe also help him find the ability to strike out anyone which he lost last year. What’s scary is that Rodon had his nothing-year last year with a seriously depressed .242 BABIP against, which means he was pretty lucky to even get to that. Rodon’s one year of control in ’16 saw him throw more fastballs than he ever has, and he’s probably going to need to get back to that to have any control.

The main attraction for Sox fans will be of course the unveiling of Eloy Jimenez in left, and he’ll pretty much be the raison d’etre for the entire season with Michael Kopech suffering a case of elbow twang. There’s the hope that Yoan Moncada’s keen eye can finally sync with his hands and actually lead him to make contact more often and turn into what was projected. At least he won’t hurt anyone, or less people, at third base than second. Lucas Giolito will trot out his truncated motion for real for the first time, hoping that will allow him to find the strike zone more than once every couple of minutes.

All of that still adds up to a lot more than the Royals have going on, which you can tell by the fact that a Rule 5 pickup last year in Brad Keller (Old Man Keller’s boy, in case you’re asking) is going to take the ball on Opening Day. They still haven’t said who will follow that, and it might be Homer Bailey, which is just another word for “inferno.” Danny Duffy is hurt, and after that Jakob Junis and Jorge Lopez will try and make up the difference. Keller gets by on getting a ton of grounders, and much like the rest of the staff he doesn’t get a lot of Ks. But he kept an inordinate number of fly balls in the park last year, and Kauffman Stadium helps with that, but it won’t be that low again.

As for the lineup…well, they’ll run a lot? Between Mondesi, Merrifield, and Hamilton they could eclipse 120 steals right there, which would come close to leading the league alone. That’s assuming they can get Mondesi and Hamilton on base enough, which they can’t. Mondesi might get there if he goes Willie Mays Hayes and just keeps everything on the ground, but don’t count on it. As for the rest. Alex Gordon died and they have the worse Dozier. Jorge Soler is going to wheel out there along with my charred hopes of a modern-day Vladimir Guerrero (I guess I have to put Sr. now) with plate discipline, as that’s what I thought he would be only like three years ago. We’ll always have the ’15 playoffs, Jorge. And that homer against Pat Neshek in St. Louis that still hasn’t landed. And he’ll flash it just before something else on him falls off in May and he’s done for the rest of the year.

No, there’s no Manny Machado. No, there isn’t that much to watch other than Eloy until Cease and Madrigal arrive. But it’s better than it was. Off we go.

Everything Else

Why Aren’t The Hawks Considered The Oilers?

By Sam Fels March 27, 2019 1817 0

As long as we’re firebombing everyone, let’s get out the heavy artillery and mercenaries with no soul to wield it.

One team is considered the laughingstock of the entire league. One team is viewed as just a down-on-their-luck powerhouse instead of a Den of Incompetence, which it just might be. They both have 76 points. What’s funny is that the Oilers finished with more points last year, and were only six points behind the Hawks the year before that when they both made the playoffs. Except the Oilers actually bothered to win a round, or even a game.

I know, I know. The Oilers have the exact opposite pedigree of the Hawks before that. This is where I’d also point out that Peter Chiarelli was the width of a post in double OT in Game 1 of the ’13 Final from being a two-time Stanley Cup winner, one behind ol’ Stan there. So while the team might not have any of the glow, the two GMs who built these current messes are more similar than you think.

And you may say, “Yeah, but the Oilers only have 76 points because Connor McDavid is Dark Phoenix and he’s got a really good running buddy in Leon Draisaitl and another pretty good one in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and otherwise they’d be the Senators.” You wouldn’t be wrong. Except then I’d say the same thing about Patrick Kane, and then Alex DeBrincat and Jonathan Toews. And Kane and Toews are older than McDavid and either RNH or Draistail, take your pick.

And then you might say, “Ok, even if I give you that, the Hawks haven’t handed out a patently stupid contract like Milan Lucic.” Here’s one for ya: Milan Lucic over the past three years has two more points than Artem Anisimov, and for only a million and a half more per season. And Lucic only cost money, whereas Anisimov cost you Brandon Saad the first time as well as his money.

We’ve laughed and scoffed at the inability of the Oilers to build a defense, and that’s the main reason they suck. Ok, so heading into next year, which blue line would you take?

Oilers – Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Benning, Sekera

Hawks – Keith, Seabrook, Gustafsson, Murphy, possibly some comb of Forsling, Dahlstrom, Jokiharju.

And before you answer, remember the Oilers rank ahead of the Hawks in every defensive category and they’ve gotten essentially the exact same save-percentage this season.

Well sure, the Hawks had to hold onto guys longer, you’d say, considering what they’d accomplished, which hampered their flexibility, whereas Chiarelli basically got to build the Oilers from scratch. Somewhat fair, but the only holdover for the Hawks now who has become a foul-smelling, maggot-infested corpse is Seabrook. Yes, Keith isn’t what he was and has actively sucked or not cared or both at times. But he could almost certainly fill out a second or third-pairing role for you, and it isn’t his fault that the Hawks have literally found no one to move him into that, other that MAYBE Connor Murphy.

There are differences. The Hawks don’t have an obviously franchise-sinking trades like Hall-for-Larsson. They do have a collection of deadline and offseason deals that netted them nothing that has helped yet. Off the top of my head: Sharp trade, Bickell trade, Leddy trade, Danault trade, Hartman trade. Shaw trade got you DeBrincat, so there’s a win!

In reality, I don’t think the Hawks are the Oilers. The Oilers are also capped out for next year, and that’s with pretty much this as a roster. Evan Bouchard appears to be their only prospect to get excited about, and we’ll see with Kailer Yamamoto. The Hawks can at least boast about Jokiharju and Boqvist (maybe on both), and Sikura, Perlini, Kahun, Kampf are at least “guys” to fill out the bottom of a roster on a good team. But the connections are closer than you think.

Everything Else

Ball Don’t Lie

By Sam Fels March 27, 2019 1903 0

There will be lots of post-mortems in just over 10 days time when this season ends now. And that’s when it will end, which we all kind of knew but some of us had deluded ourselves into thinking there was hope it might go on for 10 days more. Which is kind of a silly thing to hope for, because those 10 days in one playoff series really have no more bearing on the future than missing out on them do. But it became official last night.

Even last night’s effort wasn’t a crime against the sport. The Hawks don’t have a trap-buster. They never really have honestly, but they had the forwards and the defensive discipline to grind it out in the past. Gustafsson is too slow, Forsling too dumb and slow, and Keith too manic with the puck. They don’t have forwards to just get it low and get it back other than Saad, especially with Caggiula hurt (and when you’re needing Drake Caggiula, that expresses things I never could through sheer prose). Dominik Kahun can in spurts, but he was on the 4th line for some reason. And they don’t have d-men who can get a shot through traffic. I’m not even convinced Gustafsson is that good at it, as his skill seems to be burying open ones. Seabrook used to, when he could get to any spot to even get a shot off quicker than can be measured with an egg timer.

Still, they didn’t try as much of the dipsy-doodle shit they did against Vancouver against the same tactics. They actively tried to harass the Coyotes d-men early and often to try and create turnovers at the Arizona line or just beyond to avoid that trap, which is what they had to do. Didn’t work, but at least they tried it.

But at the end of the day, the Hawks had seven “big” games that definitely would have had them in the playoff spots or right on them. The spots they’ve told you are the season’s goal. The spots they told you were the minimum for this season.

They took two points out of them.

It’s a second straight year without the playoffs for Team One Goal. Two years after you were told that everyone would be held accountable. So who’s been held accountable?

Brent Seabrook has been healthy scratched twice in two seasons where he’s been AHL-level. Duncan Keith probably can’t be demoted in the lineup, but other than occasionally Murphy and Dahlstrom taking last minute shifts, there’s been no sign of that either. Nick Schmaltz was held accountable, I guess. But that’s easy. Henri Jokiharju was apparently held accountable. That’s even easier.

Joel Quenneville was, though only after his GM was actively spiking his roster. And I don’t know that was the wrong choice. I don’t think it was, and I didn’t then either. But his replacement has done exactly the same (.500, which in the NHL is bad) with an improved roster. Q didn’t have Connor Murphy. Q didn’t have Caggiula. Q didn’t have Sikura. Q didn’t have Strome and Perlini (whatever that counts for). And Q didn’t have a back-to-his-best Crawford, which Colliton has had the past month. Where has that gotten the Hawks? A handful of themselves. Will Colliton be held accountable? When he was hired they told you this was a playoff team. They’ve snuffed it in every game they had that truly mattered. Keep in mind, if they’d just split those seven points from the 14 on offer, not only are they in a wildcard spot, they’re probably comfortably so.

After stealing a win out of Montreal and then struggling against Vancouver’s trap for a period. Coach Cool Youth Pastor switched the lines to whatever this is. Top Cat doesn’t have a point. Kane doesn’t have a goal. Strome doesn’t have a point. Neither does Perlini. Toews has two goals and three points. Brandon Saad has averaged a 65% Corsi over these five games, and the same scoring chance share, and has been on the ice for one goal for because all his work is being done for the benefit of balloon handed clods. Sure, teams go through snakebitten periods as a whole, and maybe this is it. Or is it that a very thin and fragile lineup needs to be perfectly assembled, and Beto O’Colliton did the opposite?

Will Stan Bowman be held accountable? He was the one actively trashing his coach in the offseason with his moves for an excuse to fire him, which he didn’t have the balls to do over the summer. He then installed his guy who is clearly not ready for this after one season coaching in North America. It was a hail mary to save his job. It didn’t work, but he’ll get away with it. While the broadcast spent several minutes discussing the Coyotes overhauling their scouting after having to trade three straight first-round picks, the names of Schmaltz, McNeill, Danault and Hartman certainly ring around the ears of Hawks fans (I’d throw Teuvo on there, but he was a sweetener). Will Stan be held accountable for his pro scouting staff? Because in the past that’s netted him a clinically dead Johnny Oduya, Dale Fucking Weise, Tomas Fleischmann, and an even more clinically dead Andrew Ladd. Sure, he fleeced Edmonton, but that’s filling-your-name-on-the-SAT shit. Strome and Perlini may yet work out, but the record is very spotty. This is the same GM who ruined last year by having no backup plan for Crawford than Anton Forsberg and JF Berube. Has it improved at all?

Will John McDonough be held accountable? It’s his enforced extensions to Bickell, Seabrook, and Anisimov that have hamstrung this team. It’s his message that this is a playoff team is broadcast far and wide, and yet it’s his team that’s not even coming close to that. By what standard is he judged? The building is still full, so I guess that’s what matters.

In a depleted Western Conference that made the hurdle of the playoffs barely knee-height, these Hawks will barely get within hailing distance. Their point-total this year will be the same as it would have been last year if Crawford had remained healthy. Perhaps even worse. They have the same 76 now, and you could easily see them only beating the Kings the rest of the way here (and there’s another thing they barf-belched last time, so who knows?). So how do you make the argument they’re moving forward? And they’re not moving backward, they’re in the same hell they were before. Not near the playoffs and not bad enough to get a true difference maker in the draft. And you have to believe the playoff threshold will return to its 95-point level next year because that’s just how things work. Do you see a 95-point team here without massive additions?

This was a team in need of a lot, and even at the draft they took the biggest project possible. And trading or buying out Keith and Seabrook, respectively, this summer, if that is the plan, is only going to ramp up the pressure even more. Their names still draw a ton more water than Bowman’s or Colliton’s do. Is there any forward in the system anywhere close worth getting excited about? It seems like the Hawks are poised to make the team good again just at the point when Toews and Kane are too old to do that. How many more MVP-worthy seasons do they think Kane has left in his 30s?

Who will be held accountable? The answer is no one, as the front office hides behind the three banners they were pretty much as along for the ride for as you and I were. And they can do that, because the Hawks have returned to their natural place in the Chicago pecking order. The Bears are Super Bowl contenders. The Cubs are still World Series contenders. The Sox are at least in the news and producing players their fans can get excited about. Even the Bulls stupidity knocked the Hawks back even more off the headlines.

So they can keep the status quo, because really, who’s looking?

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – March 26th

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 984 0

First Screen Viewing

Hurricanes vs. Capitals – 6pm

All the action is in the Metro tonight, both at the top and bottom of that playoff picture. The Canes are almost clear of trouble, with a five-point gap to the Jackets outside the fence. They’re only four points behind the Penguins for third with two games in hand, so they may even scrap an automatic spot. The Caps have ascended to the top spot of the division, which at this point is basically a birthright for them, but are only holding off the Islanders by a point. This is the first of a home-and-home and if the Canes were to take both they’d be one point behind the Caps, even with the Pens, and it’ll be a big ol’ mess. Which is clearly what we’re rooting for.

Second Screen Viewing

Islanders vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Kind of the same thing here. The Isles need this to get back over the Caps, and the Jackets need every point on offer to avoid a franchise-defining capitulation that could set them back years. Although at this point they’re just playing to get impaled on something sharp by the Lightning, which would be more of the same in their playoff history. Still, to miss out after all that would frankly be embarrassing for them (and life-affirming for us). Maybe Artemi Panarin can join the party before he fucks off, as he’s currently got six assists in 12 March games when the Jackets needed him most. You can have him.

Other Games

Panthers vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Sabres vs. Senators – 6:3o

Kings vs. Oilers – 8pm

Ducks vs. Canucks – 9pm

Baseball

Finally Some Good News: The Cerebral Assassin Signs Up

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1421 0

It’s mostly been a spring training of gritted teeth, looks of disdain, and exasperated sighs out of Mesa, Arizona. This was not an offseason the filled any Cubs fan with glee, or even hope–of which is something we used to never even approach “E” on the tank–and the actual tossing of balls and swinging of bats didn’t do anything to lighten that. Manny Machado didn’t arrive. Neither did Bryce Harper, and it was only four or five months ago that was a foregone conclusion. In fact, no one arrived except Daniel Descalso and a couple of guys who max out at 30 pitches a week.

Once the Cubs sat out the winter, they also seemed to be sitting out extension season. Which actually made sense, as there was no one pressing who needed to be re-upped. But when your fanbase is already fed up with inaction, anyone doing anything elsewhere is cause to get even more so. Goldschmidt, Trout, Verlander, Arenado all re-upped, and meanwhile the Cubs had ass firmly planted on hands.

Or so it seemed. Today, both Kyle Hendricks and Jacob deGrom extended their deals with their teams. And I think it’s kind of poignant they did so on the same day. Because they’re a lot more alike than you think. And the $13.7M average on this ($12M next year and $14M the three years after to go along with the $7.4M he got through arbitration this year) is actually a steal.

The headline on this is that since 2016, there are six pitchers with a better ERA than Hendricks. They are Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. Four of those guys make north of $30M per year or are about to, and Thor will join them soon enough (assuming his arm doesn’t actually splinter into pure gas). To get Hendricks at less than half of that is…well, it’s a trick.

Oh I know. ERA doesn’t mean what it once did. Those guys strike out the world, and figure to for the foreseeable future. There are less variable, if any, with them. Hendricks depends on his defense and movement and deception and his margin for error is always thinner than a pubic hair. I get it. And yet he’s danced on that edge for three seasons now without falling off. Maybe it’s just who he is?

Hendricks may not send everyone back to the dugout immediately with their tail between their legs, but he does have the second-highest soft-contact rate in that same timeframe of anyone. CC Sabathia is the only one ahead of him. Which means he runs a lower-than-most BABIP, or Batting Average On Balls Put In Play (15th). Yes, he’s always had at least an above-average infield behind him. But that’s A) by design and B) given the age of Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo, that doesn’t figure to change. Only second-base would seem to need a refreshing.

Even if you go by FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which seeks to take the defense out of the equation, Hendricks ranks 21st in the past three seasons by that measure. Right ahead of names like Bumgarner, Greinke, and Archer. Again, this isn’t really an accident.

If you were just to compare him to another pitcher to sign his extension today another season away from free agency in deGrom, it’s really weird to say. Yes, deGrom has a Rookie Of The Year and a Cy Young to his name, as well as odd capitalization. deGrom is also a year older, and their career ERA+ are 144 for deGrom and 134 for Hendricks. deGrom’s WHIP is 1.07 for his career and Hendricks’s 1.11. Their FIPs are 2.81 to 3.32. No, Hendricks isn’t deGrom, but he’s also probably a whole lot better than just half as good, as their new salaries would suggest. Also Hendricks does have top-3 Cy season on his resume, just for funsies.

And the Cubs need the savings. Cole Hamels is here for this season only. Jon Lester is off the books come November 2020. So will Jose Quintana. And the Cubs have exactly dick coming through the system to replace those guys, with only Adbert Alzolay having any chance of making the rotation, and he missed over half the season last year. The Cubs are going to have to go out and get more pitching, if there’s any to be found given the state of free agency now, and it’s going to cost. Having to not pay Hendricks what he could have easily made an argument for might be a life-saver.

Remember to hit those share buttons. They’re going to take our thumbs!

Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Coyotes Preview/Live Album Recording: Still Reaching For The Ropes

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1792 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 33-32-10 Coyotes 36-33-7

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: WGN

HI HOMER! FIND YOUR SOULMATE: Five For Howling

Only because the Western Conference refuses to let anyone die (at least outside Southern California), tonight’s tilt still has implications on the final wildcard spot. With their decisive win in Winnipeg last night, the Stars have probably extricated themselves from this Battle Stupid. The Wild still seem to be going the other way, though they’re three points up on the Hawks but having played two games more. The two combatants tonight are officially not dead, so this somehow clears the bar of “BIG GAME.” We know how that’s gone for the Hawks, with Sunday’s hail mary being their only reprieve.

Since you last saw the Coyotes, which was getting speed-bagged by Brendan Perlini, they’ve gone 2-4-1 and have lost those four all in a row leading to his one. Their last out was a cure of insomnia, shutout-loss to the Islanders, who have a habit of doing that. Getting pumped by the Lightning on the road is par for the course, but also eating it to the Panthers and Devils is not. It’s left the Yotes two points behind the Avalanche having played the same number of games. Let’s say their forlorn hopes are fading.

The problems for the Coyotes are hardly inconspicuous. Since putting up a touchdown on the Ducks, in this 0-4-1 stretch they’ve scored six goals. That’s not going to get it done, no matter what kind of holistic/satanic ceremonies Darcy Kuemper may be performing in the crease to put out numbers like this. And the Coyotes don’t score because they simply don’t have enough talent. Yes, Derek Stepan is back, but when you desperately need Derek Stepan to return, that says everything about what you are and where you still need to go.

I suppose the Coyotes can claim to be a little hard done by, as in those five games they’ve been on the positive side of the possession ledger. But they don’t do as much with that as most opponents will, so they’ve lost the chance battle. There’s not enough here to turn possession into threat consistently, and that will be their problem until they produce a star out of the kids they have or they convince one to sign there. Which ought to be a real trick. Worker bees need a queen, after all.

So the Yotes can be GO HARD all they want, and there is a decent amount of speed here, and they can gobble up points in the doldrums of the season when other teams are in the midst of, “I can’t be fucking bothered with this” phase. But when teams are trying, or just ramping up for the playoffs, they’re short. The Hawks will find this out themselves in a week, if not sooner. But it’s enough to put the Hawks off for sure, and the Yotes will definitely be looking for some get-back after getting it up them sideways on Madison St. a couple weeks back.

As for the Hawks, I guess if they’re still counting these as real games they need to run the table this week. That includes a trip to San Jose, a team that has treated them like a marrow bone twice already but is kind of a mess at the moment, can’t get a save anywhere, and is basically locked in where they are and is waiting for the playoffs to start. So maybe you can goof a win there, who knows? But beating the Yotes and Kings is an absolute must, because the last week is murder. But hey, if you’re going to pull a miracle, pull A MIRACLE.

Only changes tonight you’d see is the defensive rotation in some fashion that doesn’t really matter. One would think at home the Coyotes will come out far more aggressive, for one after what went on last time and after losing four in a row on the road. The Coyotes are faster than the Hawks and if they play up to that they can cause all sorts of headaches. If they’re on the heels and give the Hawks’s greater star power time and space to be the Hawks’ greater star power…well, you saw what happened last time. You’ll know how this will go by how out-and-up the Coyotes are playing.

Hey, it’s better to have games with minimal stakes on them than just running out the clock, I guess. Let’s take it a little further.

Game #76 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Coyotes Spotlight: Did I Ever Tell You Why I Left The CIA? My Kuemper

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1442 0

We’re so sorry.

All right, on with it. The Coyotes would like you to believe that they got back into the playoff race–one they’re falling out of now–due to the collective. That even though they don’t have any stars, or anyone close at forward, because they all worked together just so damn hard and man aren’t they adorable they’ve managed to find the swarm method to points and competitiveness.

It’s all utter horseshit, of course. The Yotes are here because Darcy Kuemper got them here.

Kuemper took over the starter’s job at the end of November when something on Antti Raanta went TWANG!. Since the turn of the year, he’s been marvelous. He’s made 32 starts in 2019, going 19-8-5 with a 2.18 goals-against average and a .927 save-percentage. Since January 1st, the only goalies to have a better SV% than Kuemper are Ben Bishop, Thomas Greiss, Jordan Binnington, Andre Vasilevskiy, Carey Price, and Juuse Saros. That’s the two Vezina frontrunners, the highest-paid goalie in the league, and one behind a Trotz defensive team. All of them are backstopping playoff teams at the moment as well, so it’s no secret what the Yotes are doing loitering around the West’s wildcard spots.

Kuemper flashed something like this last year, as Jonathan Quick‘s backup in Los Angeles. He made 19 appearances and amassed a .938 SV% behind the still-stingy (and utterly boring) Kings defense. That earned him a deadline deal to the Coyotes, where he wasn’t nearly as effective filling in for the seemingly perma-crocked Antti Raanta. Still, as an insurance plan, you could do way worse. Instead, the Coyotes got a reason for being.

Arizona has needed it. While their record since the calendar change is good to better than good, their methods are not. They’re bottom-10 in attempts, scoring-chances, and high danger chances since January 1st, so they’ve basically needed every Kuemper save they’ve gotten. They’re also bottom-10 in goals scored at even-strength in that time, so again, the margins for error are extremely thin. Which might be why they’ve lost five in a row with Kuemper’s level dropping every so slightly.

The Coyotes do limit what Kuemper has to do in one fashion. They give up a ton of attempts but block a ton of shots, as they’re middle of the pack in shots-against and scoring-chances-against since the turn of the year while being bottom-five in attempts against. So Kuemper doesn’t have to perform a high amount of miracles, but he does have to perform a high-percentage of the ones asked because the Coyotes just don’t score much.

Which puts brain-boy John Chayka in something of a quandary next season. Raanta will be coming back, but can’t be trusted to stay upright in a stiff breeze. The Coyotes have to do something eventually other than promise a future, and next year would seem the bills come due. Kuemper is signed through next season at a very cheap $1.8M, so the simple answer is to keep him around as Raanta insurance.

On the other side of the coin, you could never sell higher on him than now, especially with that very reasonable salary. Raanta’s injury history make him unmovable, or at least for nothing more than whatever’s left in the truck after cleaning. This is far and away the best regular season Kuemper has had, and his only one as a full-time starter. He also remains DARCY KUEMPER. Raanta was awfully good last year when healthy, and the Yotes could use some pieces at forward. Would the Flames or Sharks or someone else who bites it early due to a giant sucking sound in the crease come calling? You have to think they would, and the free agent class has Bobrovsky, Varlamov, and that’s just about it. Kuemper’s going to be a more attractive trade piece than he will ever be.

He might not be done yet. The Coyotes face the Avs and Wild after tonight, which are direct competitors. Their three games to close the season are the Kings, Knights, and Jets, and while the latter two are much better than the Coyotes, they almost might not have anything to play for by then. If he’s got one more spurt in him, he could goof the Yotes a playoff spot. Which would only drive up his value even more.

Let’s see how galaxy brain Chayka really is.

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Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Coyotes Q&A: Catherine Silverman of Athletic AZ

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1474 0

Catherine Silverman covers the Yotes for The Athletic, as well as working as a goalie expert of In Goal Magazine. You can follow her on Twitter @CatMSilverman. This is the Q&A we did with her a couple weeks ago when the Coyotes were here.

The Yotes have hung around the playoff picture, and yet they don’t have anyone who has scored over 42 points. Is this all or mostly Darcy Kuemper‘s resurgence?

So, let me preface this as saying that I think that Darcy Kuemper has been a really solid part of the team this year. He’s had his moments that put your heart in your throat, but he’s internalized the need to play well for the team’s playoff hopes and gotten the job done.

That being said, I think that the biggest contributor to their success has been their scoring depth. They don’t have anyone over 42 points, but they have 11 players with 20 or more points and 10 players with 10 or more goals. In comparison, the Blackhawks have a 96-point getter, but also only have 10 players with 20 or more points — and they only have eight players with 10 or more goals. It’s why the Dallas Stars have a 61-point player in Tyler Seguin, but are still hanging around Arizona; they only have five players with 10 or more goals.

While the more top-heavy teams live and die by the success of their stars, Arizona has been getting effective middle-six production from… well, everyone. Add in their injuries (if you project players like Schmaltz, Richardson, Galchenyuk, and Grabner onto an 82-game season, they’d all be sitting on much higher point totals) and their success makes a lot more sense.

In my opinion

Look, we like Connor Murphy. We may be the only ones, but we’ll hold on. But we can’t help but notice the metrics that Niklas Hjalmarsson is turning in these days. Starting in his own zone most of the time, against the toughest competition, and turning it around. Is that to do with playing with Ekman-Larsson? Because Hammer was starting to turn here before the trade…

I think it has a bit to do with it, but Ekman-Larsson certainly isn’t propping Hjalmarsson up if that’s what you’re insinuating. Isolated on his own, Nik has been one of Arizona’s best players all year; he’s looking incredibly effective, and very much like the player that Chicago initially signed to his current deal.

It’s possible that the rest from no playoffs last year combined with missed time for injury legitimately gave him enough rest to refuel his tank. Whatever it is, though, he’s looking fantastic.

We were also Alex Galchenyuk fans and though Arizona got the better of that deal. He’s produced ok, been hurt a bit, but maybe not yet what we were thinking. What is he to someone who watches him far more?

He’s been exactly what the team traded for. After missing the start of the season for injury, he had a bit of a slow start — understandable when coming in with the season in full swing on a brand-new team.

In the last few months, though, he’s been one of their best players. He’s excellent on the power-play, has 15 goals and 36 points in 57 games (which would be 43 points if he’d missed no time, putting him over that 42-point threshold), and has won 46 percent of his face-offs — his highest percentage in three years.

Since February 1st, he’s put up seven goals and 11 points in 17 games. If he can continue to perform on the power-play like he has lately — and, frankly, continue to set up plays for Clayton Keller like he has been, even when it doesn’t get him a point on the board — he’ll continue to prove to be a fantastic add for the team.

Three points out, game in hand on the Wild, 15 to go. Can the Yotes do it?

Three points out and two games in hand now, since the Wild forgot they were playing tonight. But I’d say at this point, it’s really anyone’s game — meaning that I won’t be putting money on Arizona, but I won’t be surprised at all if they make it either.

Jason Demers is healthy again. Michael Grabner is healthy again. Antti Raanta is getting close. They’ve survived the first of potentially four to six weeks without Derek Stepan, and only lost one game in the process. I think if they put up the kind of performance they did down the back stretch last year, especially with Colorado losing one of their own top-heavy talents and Minnesota and Dallas struggling with consistency, they could easily slip their way in.

Game #76 Preview Suite