Winnipeg Jets – Page 4 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Spotlight: Blake Wheeler And The Spirit Of Giving

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1513 0

When you think of Blake Wheeler, if you think of Blake Wheeler (and we won’t comment if you do), you probably think of an all-conquering, clear-the-track power forward who goes wherever he wants and constantly opens up space for his linemates. And that’s not exactly wrong, because Wheeler can be that when he wants.

He can also be Adam Oates.

Wheeler led the league in assists last year, with 68, tied with Claude Giroux. For comparison’s sake, Patrick Kane–perhaps the preeminent playmaking winger of his time–has a career high of 60 assists in a season. Wheeler’s and Giroux’s 68 assists last campaign were the most by a winger since Jaromir Jagr put up 69 (shut up) in the year coming out of the lockout. Martin St. Louis also managed to put up 68 assists in ’10-’11, but Jagr is the only other winger you’ll find in the stratosphere of that total of helpers. In the interest of fairness, Wheeler spent a chunk of last season at center when Mark Scheifele was out with injury.

This year, Wheeler is on pace to do even better, and so far it’s all been from the wing. He has 33 assists in 30 games, which would put him on pace for 90 assists on the year. No winger has bettered 83 (go ahead) in the past 20 seasons, which of course was again Jagr.

Making it stranger still is that Wheeler is only on pace for 13 goals. Only Henrik Sedin has ended up with less goals while totaling up more than 65 assists, with 10. Adam Oates is also, fittingly, on this list as he managed 13 goals in 2000-2001 while collecting 69 (still shut up) assists. This kind of disparity isn’t seen much, especially for a player as capable of scoring as Wheeler is.

It gets even more odd as you dig deeper. Wheeler totaled 34 assists on the power play last year, which led the league by four last year. This year, he’s already piled up 17 power play assists, which leads the league by two, and puts him at a rate to pile up 46 power play assists. Since the NHL began keeping track of power play points in ’97-’98, only Sidney Crosby has toppled that total, with 48 in ’06-’07. Guess it helps when you can just dish across to Patrik Laine at the other circle all the time.

Wheeler has company this year. Both Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen have more assists than him this year, and both are wingers. Rantanen is on pace for a simply unholy and ridiculous 103 assists this year, and probably then has to give a quarter of his paycheck to Nathan MacKinnon.

Either way, Wheeler has changed his game and you can’t argue when it results in points on the board. While some may deride the amount that has come on the power play, Wheeler led the pack in primary assists at all strengths last year, and he did so by seven of them. So whether it’s at evens or on the man-advantage, if you’re the guy setting up the goal, that’s what matters. This year both Rantanen and Marner are ahead of him in primary assists.

Still, it’s a little weird what’s happened to Wheeler’s game. He used to be a possession monster, with relative Corsi-percentages of +5.7 and +8.4 three and to years ago. Last year, when he started this Jason Kidd act, that dropped to the negative side, as he’s on this year as well. It doesn’t matter when you’re scoring as much as he is, or his line is, but it gives you the impression that there could be even more within Wheeler if he were so inclined. And certainly no one minded when he put together 18 assists in 17 playoff games last year.

Maybe this is just how Wheeler’s game has evolved. He is 32, so it’s likely his peak is probably behind him. While his size and speed would still indicate that he can crash and smash his way around the ice, that has less of a shelf-life than a vision-quest that he’s become. Wheeler’s ability to pick a pass won’t go away with time, and seeing as how Laine can’t even get a drink legally yet, he could be feeding him for five or six more years. Nikolaj Ehlers, his winger at even-strength, is barely any older. So that passing tree is going to be around a while, too.

Don’t fool yourself, Wheeler is still taking his shots. He’s averaging nearly three shots on goal per game this year, and he was over three last year. He’s seen a unsustainable drop in his shooting-percentage this year to 6.2%, but the more telling is that his rate of attempts and shots per 60 minutes has declined the past three seasons. Then again, that’s when Laine and Ehlers showed up, so…

Wheeler has a five-year extension kicking in next year at $8.2M per year. If he can continue to pile up 55+ assists a year, and with Laine there’s no reason to think he can’t, no one’s going to complain about him being 38 when the deal is up.

Which makes you wonder about certainly players who get derided as “pass-first.” (Sound familiar?) Sure, it would be nice if every player did everything. Some aren’t wired that way. But if you can shoot just enough to make people think about it, isn’t it better to accentuate what they do well? Wheeler became a great passer. So the Jets stuck Laine/Ehlers on the other wing. Seems to be working out well, huh?

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Q&A: Derek Gagnon, From Earlier In The Week

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1394 0

Obviously, nothing much has changed from Tuesday. So here’s the Q&A we ran with Derek Gagnon (@DerekGagnon1) from ArcticIceHockey.com.

Overhanging the Jets season is a sort of “Cap-ocalypse” in the summer. Does this season have a feeling of now or never?

Not so much, though there is a feeling that this group will see some change next year. This team is still young, and players like Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine should only improve as time goes by. The way things are going, the Jets should be a contender for a number of years to come.

With the cap going to $83 million or so, the Jets have something around $27 million in space now, with Trouba, Laine, Connor seemingly the must-keeps, along with a few other free agents. It seems doable, Is it?

I think it’s doable, though some sacrifices will have to be made along the way. Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor look to be Jets long term, and will get paid handsomely on their next contracts. There are some questions on defense though. The Jacob Trouba contract situation has been a concern for years, and with only one more season of restricted-free agent status left after this season, if they aren’t able to sign him long term it may be time to move him in the off-season. Tyler Myers is another situation that needs addressing. He’s being paid $5.5 million this year to play third pairing minutes, and not play them overly well. As an unrestricted free agent, I would expect the Jets to cut ties, but they may not if the Trouba contract isn’t long-term.

The cap being projected to go up to $83 million definitely works in the Jets favor, as that extra room will come in handy. Even then, it might mean more players on entry-level contracts on the team, rather than guys like Brandon Tanev. Mason Appleton and Kristian Vesalainen are a couple of names that could benefit from a cap crunch.

Why hasn’t Jack Roslovic popped more? Huge pedigree, big excitement, is it just the fourth line role he has right now?

Right now, I think it’s a combination of a lack of minutes and the insistence he play center, where he seems to be struggling. While dominant at the AHL level, it just hasn’t clicked at the NHL level yet. Things seemed to be progressing when he was briefly reunited with the former Manitoba Moose (AHL) line of Nic Petan, Roslovic and Mason Appleton, but Petan was dropped from the lineup in favor of Brendan Lemieux and there hasn’t been chemistry. Playing an average of 7:43 per night doesn’t help either.

Is there real worry about Connor Hellebuyck two months plus into the season? Or just negotiating the following season after playing deep into the playoffs for the first time and he’ll bounce back in plenty of time?

I think that it actually might be the change in pads that has plagued Connor Hellebuyck. The smaller chest protector seems to be taking some getting used to for Hellebuyck, which has seen more rebounds and the occasional tentative effort. I have full confidence that he will adapt and overcome, as he has exhibited his ability to be great at every level he has played at, including the NHL. His last three starts have been quite solid, stopping a combined 89 of 92 shots, so perhaps that corner has been turned.

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: These Abominations

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1520 0

Thankfully they won’t be wearing them tonight. Which is great, because the Jets third jerseys are woeful and a complete waste of time.

There’s nothing wrong with nostalgia, in the right dose. And there’s nothing wrong with using a third jersey as an excuse to feature a new color scheme. The Penguins’ baby blues were art. But whatever this thing is misses by yards, not inches.

They look like beer league jerseys, or something out of a 70’s movie that didn’t have a budget for anything else. The name “Jets” is generic enough and these jersey seek, and succeed, to surpass that. The rule of hockey jerseys should be never tell us what you are, show us what you are. That means no script logo. There has never been a jersey with lettering on the front that’s been any good. The Ducks jerseys that had them sucked, so did the Penguins from years ago, and the Rangers have had the most bland jersey for the entire history of the NHL. At this point it’s intentional.

A third jersey should be a time to use an alternate or throwback logo. We’re not huge fans of the old Jets jerseys either, which used script as well. But it would have been better than this couch-blanket for a baby looking thing. Why not take the opportunity to take the shoulder logos from the main home jersey and use that as the main logo? Fuck, why not just wear New York Jets colors? That would have at least been interesting.

This also is a color that harkens back to Thrashers days, which the Jets scorched on their way out of Atlanta. For whatever Thrashers fans there are left, it’s something of an insult (as is the Canes use of the Whalers jerseys and on a much larger scale but we’ll get to that). And certainly no one in Winnipeg has or wants any connection to the Thrashers.

The NHL has a jersey problem anyway. It probably should go back to the home whites, or better yet do away with home and away jerseys altogether and just have main and alternate. Hockey would look so much better with color vs. color games, given the way it would pop against the backdrop of the white surface of the ice. But thirds are a chance to really do something creative, be it throwback or something new like the NBA sometimes features.

So which is this? It’s neither. Which is why it sucks.

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1218 0

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Game #34 – Jets vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels December 14, 2018 1313 0

Notes: The Jets have piled up 18 goals in their last seven games, so look out…Byfuglien has five assists in the last two games…Hellebuyck started last night in their win at home against the Oilers so it’ll be Brossoit again for the Hawks and he didn’t look good on Tuesday…the third line produced another two goals last night so they’re cooking, which is all this fucking team needs…

Notes: You’d imagined Colliton would keep as many things the same as possible after the first win in 32 months or whatever…Gustafsson should be healthy so he’s likely to replace Manning or Dahlstrom, but Dahlstrom deserves another chance…Jan Rutta has been punted into the sun, so you won’t see him in a while hopefully…Crawford was stabbing at everything against the Penguins but he fought through it, and generally when he gets rolling it starts with that kind of effort…

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Game #32 – Hawks 3, Jets 6: Start The Fire, Headfirst Into The Firefight

By Sam Fels December 11, 2018 1754 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

It’s unfair, and nearly impossible, to get a handle on what kind of job Jeremy Colliton is doing after 17 games. I could sit here and say that the Hawks don’t quit even when they’ve been down for what is it, 13 straight games? And I could say that he doesn’t have anything to work with, especially on the blue line. I could say that they’re not getting saves (though they did tonight to a point). I could say a lot of things.

But then there’s the starts. And whatever the problems are on the roster, and they are numerous, there’s no way we can sit here and say that the Hawks haven’t consistently come out unready to play. You can’t fall behind for as many games in a row as it is now, and usually my multiple goals, and claim otherwise. And that has to be coaching. Or preparation. Whatever you want to call it.

Now maybe it’s on the players, who got one coach fired and don’t seem to be responding to the next one until there’s a certain level of embarrassment/professionalism/both. But you’d think you’d find a way to get through to everyone, veterans and neophytes alike, to get that to kick in when the first puck drops. It’s been a month since they have. That’s on someone.

Sure, lack of talent is the biggest culprit. But then explain an effort like this from one of your alternate captains:

Maybe Seabrook is so used to getting beat to the outside that he was just turning and getting ready for it. But facing the wrong way and just leaving your stick out there in the hopes that Kyle Connor would somehow trip himself or something, that’s a shit-assed effort. That’s I-couldn’t-give-a-fuck effort. And that’s from a player playing catch-up most nights when he does care.

And he still gets 22 minutes of time. Now, perhaps Colliton fears he simply can’t go to the mat with any of his veterans, but at some point that bleeds from reverence to no one’s accountable. And that’s only going to get worse if it goes unchecked. Maybe the perception would be Seabrook is the easy target, because Quenneville scratched him once last year. But it also wouldn’t make it much of a shock for the rest of the team. Colliton has played tough guy/bad cop the last time the Hawks were outclassed in Winnipeg in the press. At some point that has to happen with the team.

That doesn’t mean going Jim Fucking Boylen on the Hawks, I don’t care about bag skates. I don’t care about turning over postgame spreads or anything like that. But someone is going to have to pay for any part of this with ice time, and stripping it from a young player isn’t the answer.

Fin.

The Two Obs

-The other mark against Colliton is that the Hawks continue to not have any communication in the defensive zone. Don’t fool yourself, switching from the zone system the Hawks used to play to the man system they want now isn’t like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The principles are at least based on the same thing. It’s amazing how many times you look and you’ll see the Hawks have everyone covered, and then simple movement from an attacker and a lack of talking either causes the Hawks to not switch guys or completely ignore someone on the other side of the ice. That isn’t about talent. That isn’t anyone getting beat. That’s just a lack of attention to detail.

-There isn’t much else to point out, because you don’t learn anything when the game is over after 15 minutes and the only reason it becomes anything of a contest is because the team leading is already making plans for the night after the showers. so let’s talk about Eddie Olczyk’s and Pat Foley’s race to be the next Hawk Harrelson.

It’s clear Eddie’s war on analytics is directed at Stan Bowman, and perhaps at whoever else told Eddie he couldn’t be a coach or GM because of his dismissal of them. We’ve spilled countless words on the idiocy of this “fight.” Mostly because every other sport, including soccer by the way, has long ago accepted that there is useful information to be found within them and it helps build a team to win.

And Pat and Eddie’s contention that they don’t tell you who wins battles, as close as it is to Hawk’s TWTW mantra, is quite simply wrong. Because it tells you who gets the puck. Which is generally a good idea, or so I thought.

I’m resigned to the rest of the season being Eddie essentially reading his resume on air a la Mark Jackson a few years ago on NBA broadcasts, and Foley being his hype-man. I can only hope Eddie keeps displaying the reasons why no one should ever hire him.

-Also their 10 minute discussion of the 80s Oilers and 90s Penguins wasn’t all that far off from Hawk’s love letters to Yaz.

-Last point, Olczyk did claim that they both think the goaltending has been good. Crawford is at .901. Ward is at .888. They have the ninth-worst SV% at evens and the 4th worst overall. So yeah, it’s been great.

-As for the on the ice. it’s clear that Dylan Strome has use. How much, don’t know yet, and his learning curve is going to be longer. He’s got the hands and vision but he’s going to have to wait until his anticipation and instincts get him to the spots he needs faster than his feet get him there now. That can happen. It may only lead him to being a poor man’s Brad Richards, but that’ll play. It certainly is going to take more than the 50 games the Coyotes gave him.

–Connor Murphy is a clearly more confident player when he’s not worried about his coach painting a big, red #4 on his face and then beating Murphy over the head with a shovel every time he makes the tiniest mistake. I look forward to what it looks like when he’s up to game-speed.

Onwards…

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Game #32 – Hawks vs. Jets Preview/Cook Book Club: When On A Death March Manitoba Is The Place To Be

By Sam Fels December 11, 2018 1749 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 9-17-5 Jets 18-9-2

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WARM JETS: Arctic Ice Hockey

When you’ve lost seven in a row for the second time in a season, and really the second time in about five weeks, I think it’s healthy to play a team that’s better than you at every single position. It’s just crazy enough to work! It’s going to be an extremely busy week for the Hawks, and I can’t see how that’s a good thing if only because they’re going to plague society with their brand of hockey four times in the next six days. It kicks off in Manitoba tonight, where they just were and pretty much got flambed until the Jets completely turned off, and then the Jets will be here again Friday. The Hawks might just be getting deeper and deeper into the hot dog machine before they come up for anything resembling air again.

Not much has changed between these two teams since they last did this in the last game of November. The Hawks haven’t won, and the Jets have only dropped one in the last five, somehow getting shut out by the Blues at home. Maybe they did that just to tease the Hawks and let the Blues pass them in the standings. They’re just that vindictive.

At this point, there isn’t much to inform you about the Jets. You now that they’re four lines of fury. You know that the top six is probably the best in hockey. You know that Adam Lowry and Matthieu Perreault form one of the best checking lines in hockey. You know that Jack Roslovic on the fourth line is going to burst out at some point soon. You know the defense is a little shaky, and especially this season, but that it matters little when the forwards are this good. You know that Connor Hellebuyck has been having a dodgy season, but since giving up five to the Hawks (mostly after the Jets had kicked their feet up and put on sunglasses), he’s given up just six goals in his last four appearances and three in his last three. And you know that plenty of other goalies of late have used the Hawks to remember what it feels like to feel good about oneself. The Hawks have become the ugly best friend to the rest of the league.

So yeah, the Jets come into this one rolling, pretty much healthy, and needing to keep pace with the Predators and Avalanche at the top of the Central. All that spells “FUUUUUUUCKK” for the Hawks.

As for the Hawks, a couple changes. Artem Anisimov is in a dark room somewhere, so David Kampf is moving back to center…Patrick Kane? Oh dear lord. Chris Kunitz looks like he’s coming back in to fuck things up, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Alex Fortin.

Gustav Forsling isn’t eligible to come off the IR yet, so Brandon Manning should keep his place in the lineup with Brent Seabrook, at least for a while. The only pairing that Jeremy Colliton seemed inclined to keep together on Sunday was Connor Murphy and Erik Gustafsson, and everyone else rotated (though some of that was due to Manning missing a good chunk).

There’s nothing I can say to make you think this one will go well. It probably won’t. The Hawks just aren’t cut out for this type of thing anymore. Maybe you catch the Jets in a midseason malaise or Hellebuyck has a game-long sneezing fit. But hey, we’re in this together.

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Game #32 – Hawks vs. Jets Spotlight: Trouba Diving And The Impending Doom

By Sam Fels December 11, 2018 1538 0

It’s hard to have a contending team in this age of the NHL without the accompanying panic over future salary cap problems. Every year you don’t get the parade, as the Jets did not last year when they were more than good enough, the fear grows that financial obligations will keep you from getting one at all. You don’t get that many rolls of the dice, and everyone is watching the big money-ticker.

Which leaves the Jets in something of a sore spot with Jacob Trouba. He has been their top-pairing defenseman for years now, in that he takes the toughest assignments and the hardest shifts. While Dustin Byfuglien gets the headlines and the points, it’s Trouba that the Jets have decided to make the foundation, at least on the back end.

Trouba will also be a restricted free agent after the season, This will be the third time that Trouba has entered restricted free agency, and previous negotiations have not always been cordial. His deal before this one was actually signed during the season, as negotiations dragged out past training camp. Trouba is probably in no mood to cut the Jets some slack, and his desire to remain in Winnipeg long-term has always been a doubt. But then…who among us?

And that’s where things get a touch tricky. After the season, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor are out of their entry-level deals. Laine especially is going to command $10M plus, or so you’d think. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be around McDavid money after his entry-level deal expired. And players may be more inclined to take the William Nylander route than they were before. Connor will not come cheap either, as he’s likely to be coming off back-to-back 30-goal seasons.

The Jets will have $27 million or so in space, so it would seem possible to keep everyone, at least for a short time. But if the three big draws all come back for what you’d figure, that won’t leave a lot of room for role players like Brandon Tanev, Nic Petan or Brendan Lemieux, or Ben Chiarot. And depth is what makes the Jets what they are, or at least it’s a big reason.

Which makes what the Jets judge Trouba at so curious. He’s not a dynamic scorer from the back end. He doesn’t really drive the play, so much as ride along with it. He’s not Subban or Karlsson or Doughty back there. That doesn’t mean he isn’t vital, but if he’s looking for major dollars, that will be the first cudgel the Jets go to in talks.

Another thing the Jets might look at is that in last year’s playoffs, Trouba really struggled with the Knights. The whole team did, to be fair, but throwing up 40% CF%s in the biggest games in franchise history is an odd way of demonstrating you’re the key log in future Cup runs. That was only one spring, and perhaps this one Trouba turns that around.

So what do you value Trouba at? Again, he’s restricted, and we know that no one is going to come with an offer sheet (though the Hawks may want to seriously think about it). If you’re looking at the highest-paid defensemen in the league, all of them score and produce offense. Ryan Suter is ninth on the list now, and though he doesn’t score like he used to, he did when he signed that deal. You have to get to Marc-Eduoard Vlasic’s $7M per year deal to find a player similar in style. Do the Jets fancy Trouba to be that?

Troubs might, which would leave $20M for whatever else the Jets want to do. And they may only get it for one year. Given how things have gone between the two camps, Trouba for sure wants to test what unrestricted free agency looks like. Or he’s going to ask the Jets to make it worth his while to forego that chance for a few years.

A lot is going to pivot on what the Jets and Trouba do in the playoffs. And with every success and dominant performance, it may actually get worse for the Jets.

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