Baseball

Hello Castellanos In The Sand

By Sam Fels 1656 0

And of course on the day I was just bitching about the nickel and dime and middle of the road moves the Cubs have engaged in this season, they go and get what was one of the best bats on the market, trading for Detroit’s Nick Castellanos. Of course, this is on the same day, even hour, their “contemporary” Astros get Zack Greinke. You see what I mean, folks?

Anyway, there’s no question Castellanos lengthens either the lineup or the bench, depending on what his role is that night. Castellanos is only having an ok year, with a wRC+ of 106. However, he’s been murdering left-handed pitching all year, to the tune of a 166 wRC+ this season, with a 51.7% hard-contact rate. Even if he only starts against lefties, he’ll bring that to the table and take any of Schwarber, Heyward, or Garcia out of the lineup (with Happ moving to second, if that’s a game we want to play) and that’s an upgrade.

If Castellanos gets more playing time than that, it still removes any temptation for Almora (more on him in a second), or Garcia (though I can’t see Happ getting THAT much time at second base), less Happ, or less Schwarber I guess if that’s the way they want to go. At the very least it puts some of those guys on the bench on a given night to give Joe Maddon some pinch-hitting options other than Victor Caratini or Willson Contreras, whichever wasn’t starting.

It’s not without some concerns. When Castellanos plays and moves Heyward to center, or out of the lineup completely with Happ in center, that’s a legitimately terrible defensive outfield. Again, the Cubs mitigate some of this by being the best ground-ball generating team in the league, but any fly ball that heads out over the heads of the infielders is going to have their pitchers swallowing their tongues. Castellanos gets a break in going from the gargantuan outfield of Comerica to Wrigley…as long as the sun and wind don’t cause him to asphyxiate (no guarantee there).

As for knock-on effects, either Happ’s call-up was short-lived and he’s headed back to Iowa, or Albert Almora is. AA has been simply woeful at the plate going on two months now, and maybe the only way to save him is to give him the ABs in Iowa he never really got in the first place. That seems the most likely move.

Even made more so by the acquisition of Tony Kemp, who can play center and left and second base, though none all that well. Kemp isn’t completely helpless with the bat, though it feels like this is the pinch-runner-in-big-games thing they love, except they aren’t going to be playing in any big games, are they (chuckle, chuckle)? Kemp’s BABIP is in the toilet this year, though that might because he never, ever hits a ball hard. Still, last year he put up a 107 wRC+, and with any slice of luck he can at least not be a giant sucking sound at the plate for whatever ABs the Cubs deign to give him. Again, strengthens the depth….but by a measure you’ll need a magnifying glass to see. Kemp probably thieves the defensive replacement role from Almora as well.

As far as David Phelps, what he provides other than the opportunity for Seinfeld Steinbrenner jokes, I’m not sure. Two years ago he was really effective with the Marlins, when he was striking out nearly 12 hitters per nine innings. But he’s been less so with Toronto, and ouchy. His fastball has lost some serious juice this year, which has caused him to with far more cutters and curves. Neither is generating any results that are going to cause tumescence anywhere. He’s a guy. That doesn’t mean he won’t get more usage than he should, because that’s just how things work around here.

As for what’s going away, neither pitcher the Cubs gave up for Castellanos would be considered anything more than a lottery ticket. Both Paul Richan and Alex Lange have not lit it up at High-A, though they’re only 22 and 23, so they have time to figure it out. At best they were two seasons way, more likely three. On the one hand, you wonder if the Cubs should be giving up on any pitching prospects at this point. On the other, given their track record, they might as well cash in on every one because they’re likely not going to do shit.

As for flogging Carl Edwards Jr. to San Diego for Brad Wieck…it’s just sad. You could see it with Edwards, he was so close to being a real thing. And he clearly wanted it pretty badly. And maybe that was the problem. He couldn’t handle it not working, because you could see him go into a sulk when the slightest thing didn’t go his way. Then he pitched scared, and wildly, and that’s how we got here. It just wasn’t ever going to happen here for him, and it’s best for everyone to move on. I just wouldn’t trust the dude who gave up a ton of homers in San Diego to do much for you.

At least there are more options now. At least they haven’t given up. Now get your head out of your ass and let’s go.

Baseball

It’s Silly Season – Let’s Run Through Some Cubs Trade Targets

By Sam Fels 1308 0

With there being only one trade deadline this season, and for some reason MLB not moving it back to between where the two used to be, there’s some added zeal to July 31st this time around. Teams not only have to scramble to plug holes and needs, but have to plan for any eventuality that could happen in the next two months. The Cubs acquisition of Martin Maldonado is something of an example of this, where they didn’t want to have to deal with an extended Taylor Davis Experience should something happen to Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini (and it kind of did to the former, though very lightly it seems). Even if you don’t have a need somewhere but need cover, teams are going to be chasing that depth that in the past would have been a nothing waiver-wire pickup on August 29th.

Whatever this Cubs season has been, and it’s been a lot of things, they’re still in first place by multiple games and clearly have to have the chase for the postseason their minds. The names are already out there, so let’s run them through.

Nick Castellanos – This one seemed obvious a while ago, made the mainstream papers over the last few days, so you know there’s some fire to go with this smoke. And unlike some other targets, Castellanos is something of a sure thing. You know what you’re getting, which isn’t a miracle worker or a doomsday device but a pretty solid, above-average hitter. Castellanos was much better last year, but the two years previous had wRC+ of 119 and 112 and is at 115 this year, so it’s fair to assume that’s probably what he is. Castellanos has a .361 BABIP last year, some 30 points over his career average, and this year he’s much more in line with his career number. He’s not making as much hard contact this year as he has in the past, but he is hitting more fly balls, which could play better in Wrigley than it does in the vast environs of Comerica Park…at least until the winds shift in September. It can be hardly argued that Castellanos for sure wouldn’t provide a hell of a lot more than Almora, whom you’d guess he would be replacing in the lineup. Almora needs the Hubble just to see average offensive numbers.

The worry with Castellanos, if it even rises to that level, is defense. Mainly in that he can’t play it. Right field in Wrigley we know to be an adventure, and he has trouble with non-adventurous spaces. Heyward just isn’t that good in center, so you’d be taking your outfield defense from decent to borderline bad. There’s a lot of people who don’t seem to care about this, or just dismiss it as being able to put Almora in center in the late innings, as if for some reason teams weren’t allowed to hit balls to the outfield in the 4th inning?

People who do take this seriously live in the Cubs’ front office, however. It’s important to remember that the Cubs starting staff doesn’t really have a big strikeout guy other than Darvish. That said, the Cubs have the highest ground-ball rate in baseball from their pitchers, and the second-lowest fly-ball rate (no, I’m not sure how either but that’s the world we live in), so if there’s any team that can get away with a partial circus clown outfield, it’s the Cubs.

So the question is does the added offense offset your drop in defense? I would say it does, but not as much as some would think, but thanks to the Cubs’ pitching staff and their ways, it’s not as big of a concern as it is for others.

Danny Santana – This is a name that’s popped up in the past couple days due to the full-body dry-heave the Rangers have performed over the past week to drop from playoff contention. As if anyone was really buying them anyway. And this one is a hard no from me. Santana hadn’t been a plus-player in any fashion since his debut with the Twins five seasons ago, and there’s an awful lot of mirrors and smoke with this one. Santana’s BABIP is .399, and I shouldn’t have to say more than that. Yeah, he’s hitting the ball considerably harder than he ever has, so are a lot of people, and he plays several positions. But this is a balloon that could pop at any moment, and then you’re left with another Descalso when one is too many.

Eric Sogard – The chance to just yell, “NERD POWER!” every game makes it worth it for me, but I would hope the Cubs have slightly more qualifications at which they’re looking. But I’m sure Theo and Jed also would look forward to yelling, “NERD POWER!”  He can, in a break glass in case of kind of way, get you out of a game or two in the corner outfield spots or at short for how many offdays they project Javy would need (increasingly looking like none). But you’d do this to shore up your second base spot, which needs it. Sogard himself is having something of an anomalous offensive season, as we’re only a year out from him putting up a 14 wRC+ in 55 games with the Brewers last year. His career-mark is 82. Sogard’s .491 slugging this year has come from literally nowhere, with a career number of .340. And at 33, this is another balloon that could pop at anytime. He’s not that effective defensively, so I’m not convinced this is any better than just riding the Robel miracle and see where that goes.

Billy Hamilton – I’ve seen this suggested a few places, as something of an Almora replacement after he’d dealt to the late-inning glove and speed guy. Or to just stop him from ever beating up on Jon Lester again. He would cost nothing, and he is both of those things mentioned, but the late-inning defensive replacement leaves me a touch cold when you still have seven or eight innings to get through before that. Let’s think harder.

Whit Merrifield – Solves everything, way expensive trade-wise, and almost certainly isn’t happening, especially as the Royals are supposedly asking for three major league-ready players in return and I’m not convinced the Cubs even have that. And the Royals probably want to do better than Ian Happ, whose hot two weeks probably haven’t raised his value as much as Cubs fans would like to think. And even if they did you’d have to add two more names to that.

So those are some bats being mentioned, and now that I’ve done this the Cubs will assuredly trade for someone not on this list. That’s just how these things go.