Everything Else

 vs. 

SCHEDULE: Game 1 Thursday, Game 2 Saturday, Game 3 April 16th, Game 4 April 19th

We all know the format for the NHL playoffs is pretty stupid. In fact the NHL playoffs, if you really think about it, are kind of stupid. We just played an 82-game regular season to figure out who the best teams are, and now we’re going to subject them to the vagaries of luck and injury in a two-month battle royal that doesn’t really give us the best team, just the hottest one. But let’s leave that and say the divisional system as constructed is a problem. So when fans and media say it’s not fair that two of the seven best teams in the league have to face each other in the first round, they’re not exactly wrong.

But because it’s Toronto and Boston, I don’t give a flying fuck. Fuck ’em.

Let’s break it down.

Goalies: There can’t be a worse person to be than the Leafs goalie in the playoffs. No one is watched by more and more closely. And really, Freddie Andersen has always been just good enough to break your heart. He was excellent two years ago in the first round against Nashville, but only played five games. His three other campaigns in the playoffs have not been impressive, though some were effected by Bruce Boudreau’s treating his goalies like they were foosball players. Really, Andersen had the same season this year that he did last year, and he was fine against the Caps. But fine wasn’t enough then, and fine probably isn’t going to be enough against the Bruins. He is capable of more, we’ve just rarely seen it.

If we wrote this a couple months ago, we’d say the Bruins have a big advantage here. But Tuuke Nuke ’em has only been ok since the end of February and was horrific in three April starts. However his playoff pedigree is far ahead of Andersen’s, and he wasn’t the problem against the Senators last year. So it’s whether we go with his current form, which is basically “meh,” or what he’s done in the playoffs before which is much more. Still, I would expect Tuukka to be slightly better than Freddie at worst.

Defense: It’s kind of a measure of the firepower of the Toronto forwards that they amassed as many points as they did with this blue line. It’s still not very good, even if they figured out that Travis Dermott was a neat toy to have every night. It’s not that Jake Gardiner or The Mike Rielly Assassination or Rod Hainsey are bad… it’s just that you’d struggle to think of them as top pairing guys. They’ve been fascinated with Nikita Zaitsev for a couple seasons and yet no one’s quite explained what it is he does. Roman Polak is a circus bear. Even with the Bruins banged up whoever they throw out against Bergeron and Marchand and Pastrnak you’d have to give the B’s the advantage. And if you don’t keep a top line from scoring in a series, you’re kind of fucked.

The Bs will be without Brandon Carlo, as his ankle went Gumby, but they did get the moon-faced mouth-breather Charlie McAvoy back which is more important. He’s reinvigorated Zdeno Chara to a new contract, and he’s one of the bigger reasons that the Bruins were so good this year. Torey Krug as a bum-slayer is what you’d want, and Kevan Miller is better than I think even though his first name is stupid. Adam McQuaid has a big, dumb face and a big, dumb game but thanks to McAvoy the Bs have a top pairing where the Leafs don’t.

Forwards: Whatever arguments you might have with their defense, the only team that can even claim to have the Leafs’ top nine right now is Winnipeg. When JVR and Tyler Bozak are on your third line, you are the envy of pretty much the whole league. Which means the Leafs can get at Krug in his own end and McQuaid anywhere through Kadri and Marleau and Marner and even Plekanec on the 4th line. The depth is scary and the Leafs’ best hope. It’s also a ton of speed the Bs are going to ask Chara to deal with, and he don’t got none no more.

The Bruins will start this series without both Nashes, Riley and Rick. Though missing Rick in the playoffs really isn’t a big deal. Without them though, this starts to look a little one line-ish. It’s a hell of a line, with Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand, but they’ll need more. Krejci and Backes on the second isn’t the worst you could do, but comparing it to the Leafs and you see the problem. Donato and Heinen are kids farther down the lineup that could be weapons, especially against the iffy Leafs defense. But the Bs will need some people to return before too long. And Babcock is going to play Komarov 25 minutes anyway. The other thing to note is that since 2011, Brad Marchand has been a playoff dog, and if that continues this definitely tips to the Leafs.

Prediction: I want to pick the Leafs, I really do. Their forward depth is going to be hard to deal with. But I don’t trust their blue line or Andersen to keep the Bs top line off the scoresheet, and the important players on the Bs have all done this before. Unless Marchand pulls his Copperfield act in the spring again, the Bs seem too much. It’s going to take a while, though. Bruins in 7. 

Everything Else

We love to destroy idols around here. It’s kind of our thing. So we relish the chance to spread our fire (HEY BUDDY!) outside Chicago. And for the first time in a while, there are sharper looks being directed at Mike Babcock. Then again, everyone who works in Toronto eventually gets turned to ash. They all eat their young up there.

The Leafs are entrenched in third place in the Atlantic. They’ve been passed by the Bruins and are five points behind them and have played four games more. They won’t be caught by anyone either, but third place and a tricky first round matchup with Tuukka Rask and Patrice Bergeron is not what Leafs fans had in mind when this season started. It’s probably not what they sold Patrick Marleau in July. The natives are a tad restless.

The case against Babs: The strange use of his roster. Currently, the existence of Leo Komarov and Roman Polak has pretty much every Leafs fan putting their heads through various pieces of drywall. Polak has been terrible since about 2009. Komarov averages second line minutes with his one non-empty net goal at even-strength. He averages more time than Mitch Marner. It’s certainly grinding on some people.

Second, the Leafs have become a touch boring. They’ve scored more than three goals just once since the Christmas break. For a team boasting this much firepower, that sure does seem to be askew.

Third, Babcock’s rep may be overblown. He hasn’t seen anything past the second round since losing the Final with Detroit in 2009. And the thinking goes that with that roster, you couldn’t help but get to a couple Finals. And while he did get the Anaheim Ducks to a Game 7 in a Final once, that team didn’t finish with 100 points. As soon as his Detroit roster started to age and decline, he didn’t have many answers. A couple victories over the Coyotes doesn’t impress people much, nor does beating Bruce Boudreau at home in a Game 7 because everyone does that.

Still, it’s never that simple. For one, the Leafs have the best xGF/60 in the league. So they can’t be boring. Their shooting percentages in their last 10 games are as follows: 7.6, 11.1, 7.6, 0.0, 7.8, 3.2, 6.7, 5.5, o, 15.7. Only two of them are above their season rate, and they outchanced their opponents in seven of those ten games.

Secondly, even if Babs would like to be more boring, the Leafs have the third worst xGA/60 in the league, even worse than the Hawks. If Babcock wants to lock it down, he’s got a funny way of going about it. Then again, that’s probably a strike against him.

But with this blue line, there isn’t much for him to do. Morgan Reilly and Jake Gardiner are fine, but neither are top pairing material yet. Neither is Nikita Zaitsev. Maybe one or more will be one day, and now Reilly and Zaitsev are hurt. The forwards aren’t much help, given their youth and attacking instincts.

The fact that the Leafs are having to overcome their blue line shouldn’t be a surprise. It isn’t to many. And they’ve been bailed out as Freddy Andersen is having a wonderful season, so things could and probably should be worse.

Is Babs reputation maybe a little overstated? Yeah, probably. Try not to win a gold medal with the Canadian squads he’s gotten to coach. And he still thought Alex Pietrangelo was a better bet than PK Subban. He’s got one ring, though was inches from another. And as we know around here, rings don’t necessarily equate to genius, so much as good fortune.

Babcock will be judged by what goes on in April and May. And we doubt Leafs fans are going to be too pleased with Babcock’s now normal first or second-round ditch-out. Then again, Lou Lamiorello isn’t going to probably care either way, and for sure Brendan Shanahan won’t.

 

Game #48 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

We can’t give you his name, as he’s shrouded in secrecy. He used to run PensionPlanPuppets, but now he just sits in a dark room plotting his revenge. You can follow him @MLSE, if you dare. 

We’ll start with simple stuff: Just what the hell is going on with this team? 
They’re doing better than last year somehow (better goal differential and more points through the same number of points) but most fans aren’t happy with how they’ve done it. Last year’s team was a swashbuckling team of kids that played with no fear. This year’s team is now a chip and chase team that is more focused on stopping the other team than in trying to force the game on their terms.
Is Mike Babcock, in fact, not a genius?
Babcock is an incredible coach. He does, however, have a few blind spots that we knew from his time in Detroit. Mainly, it’s that he favours (don’t you dare “fix” my Canadian spelling) veterans over youth and he has a clear idea of how he wants different aspect of his team to be built (muckers on the fourth line, defencemen with cement-filled skates that can absorb shots on the PK). Randy Carlyle was a little similar in that regard but obviously with a lot less ability (his own and the team’s). It does look like Babcock is starting to come around. Travis Dermott finally got a shot, Matt Martin may finally be a scratch, and Leo Komarov will be on the fourth line instead of dragging down Marleau and Kadri. Of course, that’s just for road games because Babcock doesn’t have last change. And it’s that need to control every aspect of the game that I think is his biggest issue.
What are the Leafs going to do at the deadline? We have to believe a d-man is on the list, no?
It’s been on the list for the last 12 years! If they could add a top pairing defenceman that pushes everyone down one spot on the depth chart (and gets Polak in the press box for good) then the defence suddenly becomes a pretty good group. If you can give Rielly better support and then have Gardiner/Zaitsev/Hainsey facing second tier competition and Carrick/Dermott eating up the rest then you have good skaters and puck movers on every line which is what this team needs to get back to being a fast, skilled team.
Name Kadri was a 30-goal scorer with 61 points and impressive metrics last year. All have dropped. What’s going on here?
Same thing that sewered the year before last: luck. You can split his season in two and you’ll see that the second half has seen him produce more shots but his shooting percentage plummet. His line has been struggling in terms of carrying the play compared to his career. Part of that is that I don’t think Komarov can face the toughs anymore and I’m not sold on Marleau being able to either (despite being a good addition). If Babcock trusted the Matthews line more at home then I think you’d see Kadri’s struggles turn around really quickly. Plus, in the last two games he’s made amazing passes to Marleau for goals that have been miraculously saved. It’s been that kind of stretch for him.
Is it time for Leafs fans to crack each other’s skull open and feast on the goo inside? Or is this kind of just a midseason lull and they’ll give Tampa everything they can handle in the playoffs?
It will always be skull cracking time with Leafs fans but that has nothing to do with how the team is doing so much as the feeling you get from talking to them. I think that the Leafs could possibly be having some come to Jesus moments that will bear fruit in the long term and they’re lucky enough to be in a division that is a total mess so there’s no pressure other than knowing they’ll face one of the two top teams in the NHL in the first round. I think that best case scenario, barring any big trades, is like last year: a gallant effort, some excitement, and a 5/6 game series loss to Tampa or Boston. After last year we’d all hoped for more but I don’t see much that gives me hope for more unless Babcock really starts changing how he dresses the team and Lou and Co. can get them a bit more help. But no big deal, these teams of young (looks at LA) studs (looks at Pittsburgh) always (looks at Chicago) eventually come good, right? (Looks at Edmonton, barfs)

 

Game #48 Preview

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I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Hang on, let me get my “30 For 30” voice on here. Ahem…

What if I told you that Alain Vigneault had more wins since Joel Quenneville took over the Hawks than Joel Quenneville? It’s true. Vigneault teams, and there’s two of them, have piled up 438 regular season wins while Q’s Hawks have piled up 431 in that time. He’s got far more wins than Claude Julien in that time. More then Ken Hitchcock. More than Mike Babcock. You can’t find an active coach who has won more games than Vigneault since he took over the Canucks in 2006-2007. No Vigneault-coached team has won less than 40 games (or at that pace in the case of 2013), except for his 2007-2008 team which won 39. When you hear it like that, it’s quite striking.

Vigneault has two years after this one on his contract with the Rangers, and if he were to serve it out, he would probably land around #7 all-time in wins. Clearly, the shootout and overtime rules are different now, but that puts him amongst names like Arbour, Hitchcock, and Quinn. When you hire Vigneault, there’s clearly a very high baseline you’re going to get.

And yet, talk to any NHL fan or observer and mention his name and you’ll probably get a smirk and a scoff. “What does it all matter,” they’ll probably say, “when you haven’t won the big one?” No sport puts more value on players and coaches than whether you’ve had a day with a big silver chalice.

Vigneault’s playoff record isn’t nearly as glittering. He’s been to a Final twice, and other than that there’s only been a handful of trips to the second round. And with that against his record, that’s always a blotch he’s got to get around.

But still, aside from Quenneville, is his playoff record that much worse than those considered he best in the game? Mike Babcock has three trips to the Final, two of which with a loaded Red Wings roster. Only one Cup. His teams haven’t seen past the second round since they lost that Final in ’09 to the Penguins. Ken Hitchcock has only seen the conference Final once in over a decade.

So what would be the perception of Vigneault if Roberto Luongo’s intestines didn’t turn to paste in Boston in ’11? Is that Vigneault’s fault? You really going to pull a goalie switch in the middle of a Final? What if those earlier Canuck teams didn’t run into that juggernaut Hawks team, quite possibly still the most talented team of the post ’05 lockout? Either the ’09 or especially the ’10 Canucks team was good enough to get to a Final and win it.

Yes, the Canucks did lose in the first round the next two years. But one of them was to a Kings team that no one could get beyond five games (except for the Devils who had the benefit of the Kings being too drunk for Games 4 and 5 in that Final). And then he shows up in New York, and immediately takes a limited Rangers team to a Final and then a conference final.

If he were a baseball manager, he’d be pretty well liked. Think Dusty Baker or Ron Gardenhire or whoever else. It’s still mentioned, but their regular season wins are not ignored. It would be the same in football, though in the football world every coach is a genius. Maybe basketball it would be the same case, and perhaps that’s the sport a coach has the most control over. Or the least, as you’re not going anywhere if you don’t have a genuine star or two (Tyron Lue has a ring, folks).

Vigneault is going to end up in the Hall of Fame one day, and when he does there will be a fair measure of chuckles. Maybe they’re justified, maybe they’re not. But the Canucks haven’t even sniffed a series win since he left. The Rangers probably won’t either. Teams notice when he’s gone.

 

Game #39 Preview

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First Screen Viewing

Stars at Devils (6 p.m.)

Even though the Blackhawks are hopelessly eliminated from any shot at the playoffs by virtue of their inability to inhabit a playoff spot by the time the turkeys were pardoned (yes, I’m kidding), we’d be remiss not to watch the team mockingly flailing its collective scrotum in our faces in the standings. The Stars stand to leapfrog the Wild in the Wild Card standings with a point tonight, albeit with two extra games played. They’ll also look to get Jabba the Hitch his 800th win tonight, which is fitting, given that everyone in America is moonlighting as Annyong Bluth and seeing whichever iteration of a Star War we’re on now. They’ll start Kari Lehtonen and face a Taylor Hall-less (knee ouchie) Devils squad that’s lost three of their last four (1-2-1).

Second Screen Viewing

Maple Leafs at Red Wings (6:30 p.m.)

You watch this game for never-ending Schadenfreude of watching the Red Wings flounder. And the hope that Cock BabMike offers no quarter against his former squad. Plus the Leafs are probably top three in the best-looking sweaters department. The Leafs sans Auston Matthews, who misses his fourth straight game with a head injury, will face Jimmy Two First Names in net, as he and his 90.6 SV% try to end the Wings’s 1-5-5 skid over the last 11 games. Again, the Red Wings have lost 10 of their last 11. Not sure why they called it Little Caesers Arena, since the Wings are neither hot, ready, nor worth even the $5 their stadium’s namesake charges for pizza of a quality that you can find running through a box factory with dog shit on your shoes.

Other Games

Carolina at Buffalo (6 p.m.)

Los Angeles at New York (6 p.m.)

San Jose at Vancouver (9 p.m.)

Everything Else

One of the things we’ve lamented most over our entire time doing this, and in a connected fashion probably one of the reasons for our “success,” is how inaccessible hockey coaches and media make information that might teach others the game. Getting any sort of useful nuggets of insight from a coach or player is akin to finding a good dentist in Atlantis. They just don’t give it to you. Most of the time I’ll give the players a pass, as stringing together sentences is enough of a challenge and they’re most assuredly following orders.

We all know why. Everyone takes their cues from football coaches, whom these days are taking their cues from Bill Belichick. But there was a holier than thou quality to football coaches long before Belichik turned it into something of an art, and this shit didn’t really fly when he was coaching the Browns. And even in football, it’s a little silly.

I’m struggling to find the video, but there was another perfect and infuriating example on HNIC’s pregame show on Saturday, which was setting up the Capitals-Leafs game that night. Both Mike Babcock and Barry Trotz were facing mini-controversies in how they sent out their forwards. Babcock has long refused to pair up Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, even though they’ve been a fist in the face of God when he has. Trotz had split up Niklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin of late in a bid to juice scoring through more of the lineup.

The pregame show played clips of pressers each had earlier in the week. The clip of Babcock showed him responding to a question from some member of Toronto media person about the Matthews-Marner axis with, “When you coach the team you can set it up however you want. When I coach it I’ll do what I want.”

The clip of Trotz that followed wasn’t much better. When asked about Backstrom and Ovie–and by a female reporter but I’ll save that raised eyebrow for another time–Trotz’s response was, “Because I felt like it.” And he repeated that when pressed, and good on her for asking a follow-up, which seems to be a lost art these days.

What’s frustrating about these things is that no one was asking about specific game strategy. It’s not like we wanted Babcock to tell us how they were going to attack the Caps when John Carlson was on the ice that night. It’s like almost every coach doesn’t know that their team is being scouted by every other team in the league. If Babs feels that Marner and Matthews are too weak defensively to be playing together, you can be sure every other team knows that already. If Babs thinks that Marner needs the puck too much to be effective and Matthews hasn’t quite learned how to play without the puck totally effectively yet, or something like that, what’s the cost in telling your fans that? Sure, it doesn’t cost Babcock anything to keep his fans in the dark and questioning as long as the wins pile up. But it doesn’t cost him anything to not do so either.

And of course, I can totally understand the urge to tell the Toronto media to find something to spin on. We all do.

We face the same thing here in Chicago. Things are rosy for the moment, especially in the glow of Top Cat’s hat trick last night against several wildebeests masquerading as Anaheim Ducks. And if your next questions is, “Where would wildebeests get Anaheim Ducks unis?” believe me I’m right there with you. Still, A.D.B has shown he already has NHL top six skills, and yet he isn’t playing there. He fashioned a goal with his line last night, but the other two goals were when he was out there between line changes and got to run with Schmaltz and Kane. And this has kind of been the story all season.

At this point, we know Schmaltz is in the wing spot Top Cat would take in the top six because the Hawks want him to shoot more, and maybe give him a touch more space for his vision. Maybe they also don’t feel DeBrincat is ready for tougher competition. Maybe they don’t think Schmaltz has the strength or determination down low in his own zone yet to play in the middle.

But have we heard Q say any of this? None of this would be news to his opponents. They have scouts and those scouts have eyes. We’re basically guessing at what the reasons are. I’m pretty confident that the Predators know that for tonight Schmaltz is more likely to pass than shoot when in a given spot, no matter what Quenneville gives us or doesn’t.

While it’s pointless to continue to point to the NBA as comparison, one of the things serious NBA fans love about that league is that coaches give their press something. They’ll tell you if a guys spreads the floor from the four or they like his defense on the wing from the bench or whatever else. They’re not going to give you specific sets they’re going to run ahead of time but they’ll tell you why they did something in the past. You can learn something and watch your team differently.

Again, it doesn’t cost hockey teams anything to be run like this. We’ll still watch. It’s just annoying that they think they’re guarding government secrets. It might make for a more enjoyable time for everyone.

Everything Else

The dichotomy of the Toronto Maple Leafs this year is probably going to drive you utterly insane. On the one hand, there’s likely no other team in the East that you’d be more excited to watch. They are loaded with young, fast talent marshaled by a coach who knows how to play a possession game. They are poised to do many big things this year, and their first three lines could honestly pour in the goals. 300 goals is not out of the question for this outfit.

On the other, the noise generated by the Leafs and more specifically their stupidly carnivorous media and fans has always been outsized by a huge margin for a team that until last year sucked to the nth degree. What’s it going to be when they’re a genuine Cup contender now? It’s probably not going to be like anything you’ve ever seen, because the last time the Leafs were this close Izzy was still in Guns N’ Roses. You’ll be sick of it by December 1st, guaranteed.

Strap in.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

’16-’17 Record: 40-27-15  95 points (4th in the Flortheast)  Bounced in 1st round by the Caps

Team Stats 5v5: 50.3 CF% (13th)  49.2 SF% (20th)  51.7 SCF% (7th)  8.3 SH% (8th)  .929 SV% (19th)

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The Hawks tried something new tonight. After getting decked on the shot-board the past three games and asking Crawford and Darling to go Barnum and Bailey to get them two points, they methodically controlled the Leafs, who of the past four opponents contained the most high-end finish and thus could have made the Hawks pay for their wayward ways. Although this time the Hawks were trailing early, and thus had to chase a bit until Hayden equalized.

A third period that saw both teams go for it early and then look at each other and say, “You good with overtime?”, gave way to an exciting if not artificial OT where Hartmania ran wild on the Leafs, faking out Andersen from the circle to beat him to the stick side. And with that, the Hawks are now five points up in the division, thanks to their best March under Joel Quenneville.

Let’s clean it up:

Everything Else

Hawks fans know, or at least the ones that have been around awhile, that when your team doesn’t have much it’s easy to focus on what it isn’t and what it doesn’t have than what it does. Leafs fans have only been doing that for over a decade now, since the last time they mattered in any sense (even though they’ve always thought they mattered). That does to the players on the team, where the focus is on what they aren’t than what they might actually be, as a fanbase pines for better days.

It feels like that’s what happened to Nazem Kadri. Back when the Leafs had nothing, he basically played with nothing. Tyler Bozak got to play with the one, top-line winger they had because they lived together and Bozak went on Kessel’s hot dog runs or something. Kadri was always just too small or didn’t quite score enough or didn’t justify the hype or was just a bit too much of an asshole on the ice.

Funny how when you actually ice a representative team a player can come alive. While Matthews and Marner and Nylander have stolen all the headlines, Kadri is having a near-incredible season under the radar.

Everything Else

article-2653004-1e9bc62400000578-101_634x480 vs. Hawk Wrestler

PUCK DROP: 6pm Central thanks to HNIC

TV: WGN, CBC in the Great White North

THE ZOO: Pension Plan Puppets 

Projected Lineups

maple-leafs-lineup-card

blackhawks-lineup-card

POSSESSION STATS: Leafs – 54.5 CF% (4th)  Hawks – 51.1 CF% (9th)

POWER PLAY: Leafs – 23.7% (7th)  Hawks – 27.8 (6th)

PENALTY KILL: Leafs 83.3% (16th)  Hawks – do you even wanna know?

TRENDS: Kadri has three points his past two games, you may have heard Auston Matthews has five goals

The Hawks turn right around tonight and face another team full of young go-hards. Though where the Jackets had most of their youth on the blue line, tonight they’ll see the Maple Leafs who are oozing youthful machismo up front. The Hawks certainly won’t get much of a break in pace tonight.