Football

NFC/North Week 1 Whip Around: September Football is a Beautiful Mess

By Wes French 1181 0

Welcome to the new weekly look at what’s happening with Chicago’s immediate rivals, and a look around the league of the who’s who of everyone’s favorite brutal shitshow of a vice, the NFL.

Minnesota runs roughshod through Atlanta

The Vikings and Dalvin Cook ran wild out of the starting gate in 2019, posting 172 rushing yards en route to a comfortable 28-12 home victory. Cook was the star early, breaking off big chunks of yardage seemingly at will. He’d finish with 111 yards on 21 carries with two TDs. The Vikings defense was as good as Cook, blocking a punt on the first series of the game and frustrating the Falcons all day long. Four sacks, three turnovers and a shutout through three quarters gave this game a very efficiently boring feel, just what you want out of your team’s D.

This game was so well out of reach early that Kirk Cousins had a great, quiet day: 8/10, 97 yards, one passing TD, one rushing. He did fumble the ball twice and was lucky to keep both, but all in all a capable performance that won’t sound any alarms. The biggest takeaways are this defense is looking very strong, and if the offensive line and Cook/rushing attack can follow this blueprint most weeks Minnesota will be a very tough out all season. Now, if a team can stymie the run and make Cousins beat them….

Looking Ahead: 9/15 @ GB – Lambeau and the great equalizer Aaron Rodgers await. The GB Defense looked equally impressive against an odd Bears offense, so the matchup to watch is that front 7 vs Cook.

Detroit plays not to lose in the desert, somehow does worse than a loss

Matt Patricia was supposed to sort out Detroit as a defensively stout team, at the very least. They were gifted the first start of the Kyler Murray era in a road test to start the 2019 season, and for 3.5 quarters they looked pretty damn stout, ahead 24-6. Then, they somehow allowed the rookie Murray to DOUBLE his stat line in the 4th quarter alone. He went 15/19, 154 yds and 2 TDs, including the game tying toss to Larry Fitzgerald and two-pointer to Christian Kirk with 43 seconds on the clock to tie the game at 24.

Detroit was having their way for the most part on offense, especially in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Matthew Stafford is locked in with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who opened his career with 6-131-1 stat line. Stafford put up 385 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs, but a middling rushing attack (32 carries/111 yards) made things difficult late once they tried to burn up the clock. The defensive implosion and then lackluster OT have to be giving this team some concerns given their opponent. Credit to Murray/Kliff Kingsbury for the comeback, but that doesn’t happen without some help. Detroit has plenty to work on after a pretty positive first few hours to their season.

Looking Ahead: 9/15 vs LAC – The Lions head home in Week 2 and face a true test in the Chargers. They boast some exciting pieces on both sides of the ball, even without holdout RB Melvin Gordon. The same mental mistakes that lost a sure win in Week 1 could be a full on disaster against this much tougher opponent.

Packers do enough to hold off inept Bears

Many a word has been typed about this Chicago debacle, so I’ll spare you more of the same. The Packers defense looks very legit, and Mike Pettine is the mastermind there. Matt Nagy and his offense were not ready for the game plan in front of them, and with opportunity after opportunity handed to the Bears, Pettine’s group was there to stop them.

Green Bay did not look very strong on offense outside of a single drive, which was boosted by a wild deep ball and jump ball TD catch. Chicago’s defensive unit looked as advertised and while that’s not an easy puzzle to solve, Matt LaFleur has his work cut out to make changes ahead of another difficult matchup this coming weekend at home.

Looking Ahead: 9/15 vs MIN – LaFleur coaches his first game at home, but the task doesn’t get any easier against a Minnesota team that looked finely tuned in an easy Week 1 win. Let’s see if Pettine can keep the Pack in it late two weeks straight.

Around the NFC…

The LA Rams and Carolina Panthers played what might be a a very early preview of NFC Division winners, with the Rams leading the whole way and holding on late…New Orleans, looking to hold Carolina off, played a thriller of their own on MNF, coming from behind a few times to beat Houston at home on a walk-off Will Lutz 58-yard FG. The Saints get the NFC defending Champion Rams in Week 2…Carson Wentz and the Eagles looked awful for a quarter or so in Washington before seemingly scoring off deep pass plays at will…Not to be outdone, Dak Prescott found himself and the Cowboys down early at home to the lowly Giants before storming to a commanding 35-17 win that saw him account for four TDs.

 

Football

Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Convening After Week 1

By Sam Fels 1365 0

All right boys, how much of what went on Thursday night is the product of just a bad night at the beginning of the season, and how much of it is definitive going forward?

Wes French: I think there’s a little bit everything, feeling-wise, that’s acceptable here. Yes, it’s one game. Yes, there were positives, but basically all on the defensive side. Yes, the offense was appalling and it was basically all bad from Nagy/Mitch. Yes, it’s fixable…but Nagy is going to need to fix it in 10 days time after a summer of work that was supposed to have fixed this already.

The most glaring thing to me was the discrepancy between running/passing play calls and the lack of any kind of rhythm. Nagy earned the benefit of the doubt to handle the summer/preseason however he pleased with his 2018 and essentially had MONTHS to get this game plan ready. What came about was a slow start, followed by panicked, weird decision making thereafter. Mitch was all his bad qualities  as well – inaccurate, unable to read the defense, locking in on a lone route, giving up on a pocket/play within a second of the snap….it was like the preseason game he never got to play. So maybe he should’ve gotten a quarter or two after all.
Pagano gets some praise for some nice designs, especially the blitzes and how effective they were. The secondary looks like it’ll take some time to gel, but overall the defense is going to be fine. They did get a rookie coach that looked equally as inept as Nagy, but still a solid showing out the gate.
But, man. You tell me Rodgers gets 10 points all night and I’d think we’re all smiles and sunshine today. What a let down.
Brian Schmitz: Guys continue to disappear for entire games. But I don’t blame the players. The coaching staff and play calls are where you have to look to find fault. How can you spend 2 years talking about how gifted Cohen and Miller are, but then not get them the ball? 
Another huge takeaway is what opposing players think of Trubisky; and it’s not pretty. Mitch has a lot work to do; and while I am not giving up on him yet, you are what you stats say you are, and he’s just hasn’t been very good.
Tony Martin: Should be noted- the only Packers TD Drive was the one where Deon Bush was in for Clinton-Dix. Should also be noted that on the Rodgers deep ball they had Eddie Jackson playing close to the line and Bush playing centerfield, where he got beat deep. Just seemed like a weird call, not having BoJack do what he does best. Other than that, it’s good to see Pagano keep some aspects of the defense consistent. Roquan is gonna be a superstar. 
Nagy had a bad night and going for it on 4th and 10 is the classic “frustrated kid playing Madden” move. I don’t get the distribution of touches, either. They’re trying so hard to make Cordarrelle Patterson happen. Stop trying to make Cordarrelle Patterson happen. 
What would you guys like to see change against Denver, specifically?
Wes: I’m sure the balance of run/pass will differ significantly. Nagy was very adamant that he called runs, but they were RPOs that Mitch checked out of or decided to keep the ball and make a throw. Maybe there should be less that’s up to Mitch given what it all looked like last week.
There can’t be much that Vic Fangio would consider a surprise, but I wonder if Nagy and Co. were getting a little too cute and not wanting to show anything on tape to their former defensive coordinator. The type of plays need to change as well. The offensive backfield didn’t feel involved enough, on the ground or through the air. I feel like Davis/Montgomery/Cohen/Patterson are all interchangeable to a degree, and that could become a nightmare for the league in any of them can lineup in any play design. The key to unlocking the offense and shielding Mitch is going to be sorting out how they maximize those four in week 2 and beyond.

Brian: Aside from Cohen and miller getting more touches, I’d like to see if Allen Robinson can parlay his game 1 performance into a guy that can considered in the conversation as a top tier receiver. This of course, is a 3 way conversation and is contingent on if Nagy gets some things figured out and if Trubisky can become something more than below average. 

I also want to see if Khalil Mack can have a greater influence on the game. He’ll continue to draw doubles and chips on almost every play, so it’s hard to look at his performance form strictly a statistical view. His value in game 1 was opening up other guys to have a lot of success, which many did. 
Football

Three Things We Learned From Week 1

By Sam Fels 1563 0

Hello there. This is something I did at FanSided last year, except FanSided is evil and you deserve it more here. This isn’t meant to be totally serious, because nothing with the Bears can ever be totally serious. If you’ve come for hardcore analysis, you’ll have to wait on that. But at least now I don’t to worry about fucking slideshows and tagging photos correctly. Much more my style. 

10 Days Is Far Too Long For A Narrative

Because you know that’s what you’re going to get. Adding three days between games means everyone is going to talk about PRESEASON for 42% longer than they normally would have, and what they normally would have would have been insufferable anyway. Most of the bleating about starters not taking reps in four games that don’t mean anything and can only get you hurt is going to come from guys who went through two-a-days while getting cat o’ nine tail’d by a very angry dipshit with sunburns on 75% of his body, and they’re going to take those regrets out on someone on TV and in print. And if it’s not those guys doing it, it’s guys who wanted to be those guys doing it, or guys who went drinking with those guys doing it, and so on.

Yeah, the Bears offense looked like shit last night, and so did the Packers’. Neither did anything with the real jerseys on in August, and it’s easy to connect those two things. It’s probably not even wrong, though it seems to ignore that the Bears did the same thing last year and the offense looked pretty zippy when it came out in Green Bay before Matt Nagy somehow turtled under his visor (and let’s face it, the reason the Bears lost is because Nagy didn’t keep wearing the fedora he entered the stadium with throughout the game).

No one can argue that everyone wouldn’t have benefitted from a rep or two more, but that won’t change the NFL preseason to not being stupid and evil and greedy. And considering the vanilla stuff all teams run in preseason games to not give anything away, I’m unsure how much it translates to when teams run their real stuff in the first game. Oh, there will be teams that look ultra-sharp come Sunday, and a lot of pointing with exclamations of, “SEE?!” But then the next week a whole different set of teams will look sharp and the teams that looked sharp will look like shit and what will be the explanation for that? It’s just annoying that there will be more space to fill.

Critics Of Mitch Will Get Through The O-Line Faster Than The Packers Did

Any rational Bears fan, if such a thing is in the wild, knew before the season that inconsistency was going to be part of the game with Mitch. I’m inclined to toss his whole rookie season out, given the horse-feed-brain nature of the coaching staff. So this is at most his 2.5th (nd? rd?) year. The fact that it came against the Packers, in primetime, in the first game of the year, after last year’s first game of the year, has this amazing ability to white-out any logic from our minds. But you didn’t become a fan to be rational and logical, and that’s ok. We save that for the rest of our lives (maybe).

What’s of more concern is that the offensive line put up as much resistance to an oncoming force as the volunteers at Wicker Park Fest. Little seemed to have been made in the preseason of the switching James Daniels and Cody Whitehair between center and left guard, and I guess I took that to mean it was always coming. And yet any blitz the Packers came up with, or even a simple line stunt…sorry, let me correctly Doug and OB that…LINE STUNT the Packers did, the entire line became a Dali painting.

We can bemoan the play-calling and QB play, and you’re not wrong, but what contributed to that was Matt Nagy not being sure what they could actually block. There wasn’t time, most of the time, to get the ball down the field, or to open up holes for a run game (that would have gone to Sec. 106’s beer vendor ahead of the three RBs on the roster, apparently). That should be of much bigger concern, because neither Nagy or Mitch are going to be able to do much if the roving hordes get to plunder and pillage in the backfield at their leisure.

Perhaps it’s just a fit and time thing, and not that Kyle Long might just be old and completely bionic at this point and Bobbie Massie never felt like he was all that good anyway. But not even Mitch can torpedo this season as quickly as a dysfunctional offensive line will.

Creativity Is Going To Spill Over At Times

I get as angry as anyone at times when Matt Nagy appears to get way too cute with his play-calling. But it’s hard to think of mad offensive geniuses who don’t. Andy Reid has been wearing that label for 20 years. Certainly all of his proteges have. You lived through the Mike Martz Route Tree (which isn’t as hard as any of the defensive systems the Hawks run, or so they’d have you believe). Brady and Belichick never get that label, but that’s something you clearly can’t recreate. Perhaps we just have to accept it’s going to happen at times and just pray it’s not at the critical juncture. Which sadly, it’s been the last two times we’ve seen the Bears.

And even if I could get past that, it’s on Nagy that his team, and himself, didn’t look ready to play. And the one that sticks out is the second delay of game penalty one a 3rd quarter drive, and getting two delay of games on one drive is some serious how-does-this-work-what-does-this-button-do shit. Somehow, in my new phase of trying to be positive and forgiving (it’s going great), I could let the first one with 10 guys on the field go, even though that’s also a sign of massive unpreparedness. I think sometimes coaches are too panicky with timeouts, and five yards–depending on field position and time–isn’t worth losing the timeout.

However, the Bears had gotten to the Packers 28 in the third, and took the second one. Was no one paying attention to the clock? Did no coach start screaming about it? Because 3rd-and-5 is something you want to keep ahead of 3rd-and-10 and is worth a timeout, especially when it becomes the line between trying a field goal or not. Or having a makable 4th down. How does everyone miss this?

If all these things are relegated to the first week and kink-ironing-out (back to the cat o’ nine tails, I see), fine. But that is some disheartening-ass shit right there.

Football

Packers Spotlight: Aaron Rodgers May Not Be The Best Brother or Son, But That’s OK Because He’s The Greatest QB Of All TIme

By Brian Schmitz 2139 0

On Thursday night, the Bears will kick off one of the most anticipated seasons in team history. This game will not only determine who lands the first blow in the NFC North, it will also give us a fairly good idea if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are going to make any noise this year. Much like how the Bears defense will ultimately determine the team’s success, the Packers offense will do the same. Mike McCarthy’s high school offense is gone, but I’m not sold on his replacement. Matt LeFleur has called plays for a grand total of one NFL season; and the results were miserable as the Titans finished 26th last year in total offense. But if we are all being honest with each other, do we really believe that anyone other than Aaron Rodgers will be calling plays for the Packers this year? Rodgers has made it very clear that this is his organization moving forward. What the 2018 Titans didn’t have is something the Packers have had for 14 seasons and counting: the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. With a QBR of 103.1, there is not a single player in the history of the league with a higher rating. Not Tom Brady. Not Joe Montana. Not Dan Marino. Not Peyton Manning. Don’t believe me? Look at this:

                                 QBR    Comp. %    Pass YPG    Int %    TD %
Aaron Rogers       103.1   64.8            260.3          1.5        6.2
Tom Brady            97.6    64.0            262.1           1.8        5.5
Joe Montana        92.3    63.2             211.2           2.6        5.1
Dan Marino          86.4    59.4             253.6          3.0        5.0
Peyton Manning 96.5    65.3              270.5          2.7         5.7

As if being really, really, good isn’t enough, Rodgers is especially dangerous against the Bears. In 21 career games, the future Hall of Famer has lit up Chicago to the tune of:
• 17 Wins
• 5 Losses (Including 1 loss where Rodgers was knocked out in the 1st quarter)
• 45 Touchdowns
• 10 Interceptions
• 67% Completion Percentage
• 5,156 Passing Yards
• 105.9 Passer Rating

These are video game numbers that deserve not only your respect, but also your admiration. You are getting a chance to watch the greatest quarterback to ever play. Keep in mind that Rodgers put together a lion’s share of these numbers against guys like Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman, and Brown; who have all individually called A-Rodg the greatest QB they have ever played against. So please take some time off from motherfucking the guy and appreciate his greatness; even if a lot of the highlights came against your team and made you want to kick him in the dick.

While I don’t anticipate Rodgers having a huge game Thursday night, it is extremely nearsighted to think he won’t show up. We are talking about a guy who threw for 25 TDs vs. 2 INTs last season in one of the least creative offensive systems in football. As a comparison, Mitch Trubisky threw two or more INTs in four of his 14 starts last year. Trubisky doesn’t have to be Rodgers for the Bears to win on Thursday night, but he must protect the football like Rodgers. In a season in which defenses will be far more prepared for Matt Nagy’s schemes, ball security from the quarterback position is a major concern.

If you are a Bears fan looking for reasons to be optimistic about Thursday nights opener, keep in mind that the Packers are only 11-11 in primetime games dating back to 2014. They are also 0-5 in their last five primetime road games and 3-10 overall on the road in primetime since 2014. Another reason to be optimistic on Thursday is the fact that the last five Packers coaches have lost their first game against the Bears. Mike McCarthy, Mike Sherman, Ray Rhodes, Mike Holmgren, and Joe Philbin have all took an L. If the Bears can contain Aaron Rodgers Thursday night, David LeFleur will be the latest to add his name to this list.

Football

Bears Preseason Week 4 Preview: THE BUBBLE

By Tony Martin 1383 0

Ooooh, it’s roster cuts time! Now, I’m as bottom left politically as a person can get, so naturally I wish every single body in camp had a future playing professional football. However, until the NFL creates a legitimate minor league, roster cuts make me both sad and excited. Sure, lots of guys are ending their years or careers after Thursday’s game against Tennessee. The game itself is sure to be terrible, and I can’t imagine a worse way to spend my evening. You’ll see people you haven’t seen all preseason logging heavy minutes (bring on the skill position players who have single-digit jersey numbers!), and it will most assuredly be the worst football of the season for any fan that doesn’t routinely watch Washington or Miami play in the fall. So, before the game, I’m going to list some of the most intriguing bubble players/competitions to watch just in case you’re as desperate to kill a weeknight as I am and will be glued to the awful FOX broadcast.

Tight End: Ian Bunting, Dax Raymond, Ben Braunecker, Bradley Sowell, Jesper Horsted
Five guys, one roster spot (maybe two). Hate to say it, Bears fans, but I’m taking Braunecker to make the roster. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these dudes make the practice squad.

Running Back/Wide Receiver: (I have to combine these because I think C-Patterson screws up how we look at the numbers for this part of the depth chart):
Kerrith Whyte Jr, Taquan Mizzell, Marvin Hall, Javon Wims, Riley Ridley, Ryan Nall.
I think Ryan Nall, Smoke Mizzell, and Marvin Hall all fail to make the team. Prove me wrong, Smoke!

Cornerback: Clifton Duck, John Franklin III, Kevin Toliver II, Michael Joseph, Stephen Denmark
I think there’s a chance to find our biggest surprises in terms of roster moves on defense, since who knows how Chuck Pagano wants his DBs to look/play like. We do know they will have to be versatile, since he asks his CBs to shadow receivers instead of play one side of the field like they would in Vic Fangio’s old scheme. If I was a betting man (I am), I’d expect to see Toliver make the 53, Denmark get stashed on the practice squad or PUP list, and what the hell, PUT JF3 ON THIS ROSTER!

Outside Linebacker: James Vaughters, Isaiah Irving, Kylie Fitts
To be honest, I don’t think the Bears will give up on any of their draft picks, even if it means cutting Vaughters. I’d like to see him make the team, and while he very well could, if he doesn’t he will for sure be on another team’s 53.

Inside Linebacker: Josh Woods, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mathieu Betts
Josh Woods makes this team, y’all. He has been damn near unstoppable this preseason and has a nose for the ball. I can see him being a quality special teams coverage guy, and you can never have enough of those.

So, that’s about what I got in terms of what I’m looking for in the Tennessee game on Thursday. I’m honestly just looking to see who I can envision covering punts and kickoffs, because all the bubble guys that suit up on Sundays this fall will be there because they can play all four phases of special teams.

Okay, I’m not telling the whole truth. I’m also seeing who I should take in my XFL dynasty fantasy draft too. If you say Tanner Gentry I swear to god I will make you watch Tommie Harris film for 24 hours straight and write an essay titled “What Could Have Been.”

Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Preseason Week 3 Thoughts

By Sam Fels 1173 0

That time again, when our Bears three-legged race gets together to share thoughts. We’re almost getting real now. 

So if we can ignore the other sideline for a minute, what did we glean from the Bears in Indianapolis? Or is it just waiting for Sept. 5 now?

Tony Martin: The tight end situation after Burton is a nightmare and I don’t even wanna think about it, and the Bears backup offensive line has problems, outside of UDFA Alex Bars who I think makes this team.

… I was saying Boo-Urns
Brian Schmitz: The only thing I learned is that Bears have found their kicker. Pineiro was good from 58; which was all I needed to see. As I’ve said earlier, this preseason isn’t really preseason for the kickers. The pressure to make kicks, much less make the team doesn’t lessen any more because the games don’t count. Pineiro stepped up big time last night and an entire city made a collective sigh. 
Wes French: “It was a really good day for him.”

Eddy Piñeiro has to be full of confidence after his perfect night, with that quote from coach Nagy the cherry on top. He nailed a 58 yarder dead center and, baring some horrific performance or injury at Soldier on Thursday, he’s won this job. 
Some negatives…backup Tackle is a problem area area between injuries and inconsistent play. There may be hope in depth guard Alex Bars – he stepped in and played better than the rest of the actual Tackles trying to make the team and versatility play in the League. He can’t backup two spots if it comes to that, though.
Brian, JF3 didn’t do you and your fan club any favors this week.
Brian: JF3 should have also retired at halftime.
I also feel like it is also important to roll into the regular season coming off a win. It doesn’t mean much, but having that slight uptick in confidence and energy does help, even if just a little.  
Tony: I’m interested in who makes the bottom of the 53 as a WR and CB. I feel like the safety spots are locked up, but does Clifton Duck make the team? FFUD favorite JF3? DOES MY DUDE SMOKE MIZZELL GET IN?!?

…who am I kidding, I miss Josh Bellamy.
Editor’s note: No one misses Josh Bellamy.
Tony: Except for Matt Barkley, amirite?
Football

Denver? The Sunshine State? Gorgeous!

By Brian Schmitz 1335 0

Regardless of how great the 2019 Bears defense is supposed to be, the success of the team will ultimately rely on the play of third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky. This could be a problem if Trubisky’s advanced metrics from the 2018 season are any indication of future performance. To be clear, I am convinced #10 for the Bears will be markedly better this season, however, an advanced look into his stats for the 2018 season do not paint the prettiest picture for an organization that has never truly had an elite passer under center.

So, before you make your Super Bowl reservations, I took a deep dive inside some numbers from last season that go way beyond your layman QB stats:

Deep Ball Accuracy

  • Despite ranking #8 in all of the NFL in Deep Ball Attempts, Trubisky ranked #29 in Deep Ball Completion rate at 29.6%. This number shows Matt Nagy’s confidence in his QB and his own system, the problem is that the coaches’ confidence is not being rewarded by the signal caller. Deep balls are most often first read throws, which further makes this statistic problematic. I don’t anticipate the number on attempts changing much this season, so the accuracy on these throws must be better if the Bears are to return to the playoffs and make a deep run.

True Passer Rating

  • This rating is essentially a QBR without unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Trubisky ranked #26 last season in True Passer Rating – ouch. The vast difference in Trubisky’s QBR (72.8) vs. True Passer Rating (84.3) is mostly related to the amount of passes dropped by his receivers, a number in which the Bear pass catching corps was the 5th best in the league. For years, people would blame Jay Cutler’s lack of success on his lack of talented pass catchers – which was a fair point – the same cannot be said for Mitch.

True Completion Percentage

  • The Bears QB was ranked 25th league-wide with a True Completion Percentage of 68.5%. Much like the True Passer Rating above, this advanced stat shows you just how good the Bears receivers were last year and just where Trubisky really ranked amongst the entire league.

Accuracy Rating

  • This stat grades a QB’s accuracy for each throw on a scale of 1-4. Mitch Trubisky ranked #17 overall in this category with a rating of 2.9. As a reference, a rating above 3.0 is considered highly accurate. As such, this is a very promising number; and one that I think will increase this year based not only on Mitch’s continued improvement, but also the health and improvement of the receiving unit and finally, the addition by subtraction of Jordan Howard.

Using the above mentioned advanced stats, as well as many, many more, two intriguing conclusions have been made:

  1. Mitch Trubisky’s career currently compares most favorably to…wait for it…Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater.
  2. Trubisky’s overall production, based on advanced metrics, places him as the equivalent of a late 4th round draft pick.

In sports, you are who your stats say you are, but I cannot believe there is any way I would want Bridgewater as the quarterback of this team instead of Trubisky. In fact, I wouldn’t even want a healthy 2015 version of Bridgewater over the Bears #10 right now.

Moreover, drafting Trubisky in the late 4th round would be the steal of the 2017 draft and probably most other drafts. Keep in mind that this projection is based only on the previous years’ stats and do not provide a career projection.

After digesting numerous advanced metrics and trying to make sense of it all, I am at the same place I was before I started, I’m just more certain now – Mitch Trubisky’s accuracy will be the key to a successful 2019 season for the Chicago Bears.

 

 

 

 

Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Preseason Week 2 Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1106 0

That time again. Our Bears wing breaks down whatever they thought was important, and wasn’t, from the Bears’ trip to New Jersey. 

What did we learn in the second preseason game?

Tony Martin: Marvin Hall does not make this team, unfortunately. If Kerrith Whyte Jr can provide 4 phase special teams play, Hall is toast since Whyte can return kicks if Patterson can’t and will have more use in the offense. I was pumped to see what Marvin Hall could bring to the team, but he’s really just mini Taylor Gabriel and with how low-accuracy Trubisky has been on his deep throws, we don’t need two pure burners on the 53.

-James Vaughters looked good, and the backup LB competition is going to be the most fun story these last few weeks of preseason.
-Do the Bears have any serviceable tight ends behind Burton? Is Burton even going to be healthy this year?
-Kyle Long is making me nervous.
Wes French: Matt Nagy is making himself the story, and it might be that he’d stupid like a fox…or John Fox is going to be super excited to rip him when this blows up in his face. 

The head coach’s decision to keep his first unit out of the preseason almost completely is the new narrative for me. Teams have come to treat preseason about the same all around the league for years in the four game format, with starters playing maybe 1-2 series in game one, a quarter or so in game two, a full half+ in the game three “dress rehearsal” and then not at all in the final game. Recent years have seen more discussion about the length of preseason, if it’s necessary, if the risk of injury is worth it as men work to get up to game speed. 
To my knowledge, Nagy and Ryan Pace are the first HC/GM to use the padded practices (also becoming increasingly restricted) mainly on the first units and leave the preseason games to focus on the deeper aspects of the roster. There won’t be any way to tell what effect it has on those units until the season opens for real, but I have to admit I’m a fan of the process so far. More reps against tougher competition for the guys fighting for roles and roster spots will give Nagy and Pace that much more to work with when final cuts come at the end of the month. 
Maybe we’ll get the first teams for a few snaps in the penultimate game, but I say they should just lean into this exercise fully and let anyone currently “on the bubble” start next week. I want to see if Kerrith Whyte can do more than 10 yards on six carries or James Vaughters can repeat that electric performance against a very good Colts offensive line. 
Oh, and just toss Carolina a conditional pick for Joey Slye already. Fry missed his lone FG attempt, Pineiro was 2/2, but it just doesn’t feel like they believe in him. Slye is now 5/5 with two of those from over 54 yards, one of which came at Soldier Field. 
Tony: I like Nagy’s approach, not gonna lie. Keep the starters out of the preseason. Might it affect how quickly they start executing when the season begins? Possibly, but I would gladly trade a slow start in week one for the ensured total health of the starters for this team.
…Aaaaaaaand Fry got waived. Hello Canada!
Wes: Good for him.  What’re your thoughts on trading for Slye? I know they already did that for Pineiro but teams don’t just discard kickers anymore when they’ve got one. I think if there was someone worth signing off the street they’d already be here. 
Brian Schmitz: I am a firm believer that whatever the patriots do is the right thing to do, so in this case, I’m with Wes in thinking that the starters need to get a little burn in the preseason so the live bullets aren’t completely foreign to them when they line up against the pack in less than 3 weeks. 

Pat O’Donnell has had a great preseason thus far. This is important because of the subpar season Pat-O had last year. Punting is a position that is as much about confidence as it is about talent, so for a guy who may have some doubt in his mind coming it to this season, coming out and averaging over 50 per pop is a huge relief for a team that is not very good on special teams at this point. 
Sidenote: John Franklin had one of true great pass break ups these eyes have ever seen…just sayin. 
Tony: People like Slye a lot, and I can see why. Screw it, bring him in. Can’t hurt.
Football

Matt Nagy’s Fixation On Kickers Will Surely Kill Us All

By Sam Fels 1382 0

I know that football coaches are obsessives beyond the point of comprehension. I get that every minute detail of the team is pored over to a degree that a lazy-ass like myself would think comes from another dimension. “Fixation” is a word that most NFL coaches are so far beyond it’s not even worth considering. And most of it is because they just feel the other guy is doing the same, even if it has no actual benefit and it wouldn’t kill anyone if these coaches actually bothered to learn their daughters’ names.

Still, the Bears’ offseason and now training camp being primarily focused on the kicking competition has been…well, there are a few words for it. Strange, annoying, needless, and inflammatory are some that come to mind. To the point where I’m wondering what’s really going on here.

Yeah, I get it. Cody Parkey made this worse by going on whatever national morning show and removing his own rib to show how much missing THAT KICK hurt him but what a big guy he was by moving on from it. That in itself is going to create more attention on the position than normal, whether the Bears booted him into the river or not (I’ll give Parkey this, he did the whole “Point To Jesus” thing after he fucked up as well, which is more than most fuck-you-pious athletes do).

But it’s gone beyond that. We had the “Kicking Cavalcade” in mini-camps, with everyone being forced to make a 43-yarder in front of the whole team. Or Nagy mentioning it while singing the stretch at Wrigley. Or his constant reminders in interviews about how the ending of last season haunts him. Or making the two kickers in camp make 43-yarders, and how the first preseason game contained a field goal of that exact length in the first half. And how symbolic that was.

We’ve been inundated with updates from all the Bears beats every day. Our Sons Of Wilber Marshall have had to address it here. You can’t escape. It’s everywhere.

Fuck right off.

At this point, I can’t help but wonder if it’s a cover. Because somewhere deep down, Matt Nagy knows that game didn’t have to come down to a makable-but-not-chip-shot kick. Somewhere, he knows if he hadn’t spent at least the first half against the Eagles calling plays with one hand around his throat and the other with the thumb somewhere sensitive, maybe the Bears are playing from on top. Maybe he knows that at the biggest drive of the season, his defense let him down and got run over by Nick Goddamn Foles and the wounded ducks he was tossing only in a general direction. He certainly would have to be aware of the former, as it would be the second straight year he spent at least a half of a playoff game making his offense run a three-legged race. If he’s not, that’s certainly a much bigger problem for the Bears moving forward.

I doubt he’s intentionally hanging Ryan Pace out to dry, but that’s certainly a knock-on effect. And while Pace is hardly perfect, he did construct a roster ready to turn Nagy into one of the most successful first-year coaches in history. Perhaps tone it down a notch there, visor?

And this isn’t healthy. What kicker is going to live up to this? Now you’ve whipped the fans into a frenzy, the press into one, and those two just keep feeding into each other. The Bears could gut the Packers in Week 1 34-3 (which they will), but if whatever kicker is chosen misses one field goal, you know what the calls will be about Monday, right?  What at least one article in each of the Trib, Sun-Times, and Athletic will be? It’s now a constant question until the end of the season, and nothing will ever be good enough until Mystery Kicker makes a winning kick in a playoff game.

Except that might not come up. Close games are inevitable in January, but they hinge on a lot of factors. Yes, field goals are directly tied to points in the way that a more adventurous call on second or third down at the 40 is not. Or a missed tackle behind the line that results in a three-yard gain instead. But teams have won the Super Bowl without needing a buzzer-beater. I know, hard to believe, but it’s true.

But still, it’s a kicker. It’s middle relief of football. You find one somewhere, he sticks around for a few years, and then you find another one. Had you heard of Aldrick Rosas before last year? Do you even know who it is now? He’s the Giants kicker and finished second in FG% last season. Mike Badgley? You don’t have any idea, and if you do it’s only because he was on your fantasy team, and he was assuredly your last pick or waiver pick-up.

They just come from somewhere. Even if it’s your team, you don’t really know where. And yeah, it’s noticeable when you pick a bad one, as the Bears did last season. It happens sometimes, but to say that’s the reason the season was torpedoed is missing the whole picture. Me? I’m much more worried about Mitch Betta’ Have My Money’s accuracy.

I don’t want to say it’s untenable. I doubt there’s no kicker anywhere who can’t put everyone’s mind at ease within the season’s first few weeks. But it shouldn’t have to be like this. If it works as a cover for other weaknesses on the team as they get worked out…well, ok. I guess. Seems like it’s a pretty elaborate and heavy-worked smokescreen, though.

 

Football

Sons Of Wilber Marshall – After The 1st Preseason Game

By Sam Fels 1416 0

We gathered our Bears crew in the aftermath of the preseason opener to take a temperature. We won’t tell you about the thermometer application. And away we go?

Did we learn anything important from the Bears first preseason game?

Tony Martin: What popped for y’all? Nick Kwiatkoski still can’t cover the pass. I’m hoping the Bears go a different direction when his rookie deal expires.

-I sleep better at night knowing Ted Larsen is available in case of an injury on the offensive line. He was wrecking dudes out there last night.
-Kickers kicked some kicks! I’m so sick of all of this. If I have to see another message board post about getting that kicker from Baltimore I’m gonna finally admit I’m going bald and pay for Restore hair treatment (can you tell I was on I-90 today?).
-Ian Bunting looked okay at times, but did he play basketball in college? That makes all the difference.
Brian Schmitz: In an effort to suck myself off, I was happy to see my earlier prediction about John Franklin III come to fruition as he was all over the place last night. Franklin was 3rd on the team on tackles and contributed on both kick returns and kickoff coverage. He will be given a real chance to make this team and thus far, he’s looked good. 

I saw what I needed to see from David Montgomery. Seven touches for 60 yards and a TD. I’m ok with not seeing the rook again until week 1, where he should be the starting RB. 
This time of the year is backup quarterback heaven. This is where guys make teams, showcase for other squads, and most importantly, make career money as a trusted backup. Chase Daniel is everything you want in a reserve QB whom you hope will never play. Guys knows the offense and most importantly, knows his own limitations. I don’t ever want to see him on the field this year, but he’s a solid insurance policy. 
Finally, what we learned from game 1 is that the Bears still don’t know who their kicker will be. Average showings from each on Thursday were expected and unappreciated. I’m convinced the Bears week 1 kicker is not on this roster. 
Tony: JF3 looked good, but I still think he needs to be a 4 phase special teamer to make this roster. As long as you can still contribute to the open threads, I say good luck, but don’t throw out your back trying to taste your successes.
Wes French: Brian, please don’t make any permanent body modifications to go about fellating yourself for JF3’s “breakout” in preseason game one. He was impressive against some paltry competition, but I think we’ll need to see more and, as Tony alluded, especially on Special Teams if he’s going to make the cut. I’ll now flip my thinking completely and overreact to Montgomery’s performance by agreeing we should pack him in bubble wrap and make sure he gets to September untouched.

I’d go as far as to say I was bummed to learn that Baltimore dealt kicker Vedvik to division rivals Minnesota over the weekend. Fry and Piniero are leaving a lot to be desired for what has been the biggest need for Chicago. having already dealt some (potential) draft capital for not-so-steady Eddy, I’d think Pace waits out other teams and picks through those cut as preseason comes to a close later this month. 
Then again, I’ve been out of the loop for a few days, moving my life a mile away and getting sick in the process. Did I miss any glaring transactions or anything else from around the Bears/the League? I know Miller rolled an ankle but sounds like he’s a go for week one…
Tony: I’m hoping for Vedvik to have a great career in Minnesota. May he hit 100% of his kicks against Green Bay and exactly 0 against the Bears. I’m not invested in the Lions enough to even pretend to want to put an arbitrary number on this hypothetical. Seriously, the Lions are the NFL version of the cousin whose name you never bothered to learn because you only see them at holidays and you try to avoid them.

Wes, I think you’re spot on about Montgomery because the more I think about it, the more I think he should be saved for the season. However, I say that because I am super interested in how the competition for the 3rd/4th running back spot goes. I’ve been thinking a lot about it and I think the Bears are going to approach this depth chart a little bit differently, with players like Patterson being on the depth chart as either a running back or wide receiver. So, let’s say the Bears choose to keep a combined 10 of the bunch for the 53. We’ve got:
AR12
Tarik
David Montgomery
Anthony Miller
Taylor Gabriel
Patterson
Mike Davis
Riley Ridley
Javon Wims
And then one of:
Kerrith Whyte Jr/Marvin Hall/Taquan Mizzell Sr (or two if they choose to not keep a FB).
I wanna see the competition for that last couple spots heat up, and as much as I like seeing Montgomery play, I’m here for those reps!
Wes French: I would also like to see more of Whyte/Hall/Ridley/Wims in the next few weeks. I think you’re right that the personnel they have makes it a bit fluid on RB/WR roster selections, but the back end of that list is going to need to show out on special teams as well. I know I keep bringing STs up, but the offense and defense are pretty well set in terms of starters and even most backups. Anyone that has ideas on being the next man up for one of those positions is going to have to contribute via the kicking/return/punt teams in addition to showing they can step in at WR/RB/DB/LB to make this team. That makes me think a guys like Mizzell and Wims have an inside track over Whyte and Hall. The Bears did not sign Davis to play in the kicking game, and Patterson actually hurts those bubble guys with his ability to return kicks in addition to his versatility on offense. 

We haven’t talked much about the defensive side of the ball, but I think fans are sleeping a bit on the lack of depth behind the pass rushers up front. If Kyle Fitts is the best we’ve got to put in rotation after Mack/Floyd….yikes. 
Brian: You’re spot on about the defense; but I guess no news is good news. I’m extremely confident the defense will be who we think they are. 

We need to pump the brakes on Cordarrell Patterson. The guy can’t catch, which is fine, because Devin Hester couldn’t catch either, but in regards to the return game, Patterson is no Hester. I’m also suspect about his character. There has to be a reason he continues to sign one-year deals. 
Tony: I think there’s quality depth on defense since Aaron Lynch will most likely also take rotational reps, and they have solid backup ILBs even if I’m not crazy about them. The DL has a dank rotation in place, especially with Jonathan Bullard still on his rookie contract, but the secondary worries me. The depth chart after Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamura is as bare as my fridge in college. Brian, maybe some autofellatio might lock up your boy JF3 for a roster spot. Keep us posted.
Brian: Just had to google autofellatio. 1. Gross. 2. IT is going to think I am real sicko. O well.
Wes: You brought this on yourself. I think this is a good place to wrap this one up. Until next time, take care sports fans.