Baseball

A few caveats before you wade into the following muck. One, losses to the Cardinals make me irrationally angry. Losses to the corpse of Adam Wainwright make me more irrationally angry. This piece’s purpose is to show how two things can be true at once. It very well might not make any sense. It could also be completely wiped out contextually by the Cubs winning the next five games. Yeah, well, life is strange, said Slim.

Ok, to it.

I’ve been thinking about the ’85 Bears a lot lately, which you know if you follow me on Twitter. The parallels are getting too hard to miss with the Cubs. A life-defining, long-overdue championship. A manager/coach that is seemingly on every ad, and seemingly more interested in celebrating his style than actually managing the team. At odds with the front office. An ownership that seems content with the one. Follow-up seasons that are short of expectations. Competitors passing by and seemingly for good. Trying to balance the elation of that one night and how much it meant, that season meant, with the disappointment of what’s come after. Do I have a right to be disappointed? Am I disappointed enough? Am I erasing 2016? Did it mean too much?

It is hard to not be infuriated with this team right now. This was/is the biggest road trip of the season. They’ve fallen on their face so far, pretty much. They haven’t played like a team that even wants to win the division, much less can. The offense has simply gone away at the worst time, and there haven’t been any Scherzers or Strasburgs or deGroms doing the disappearing. It would be next to impossible to not be frustrated. How did this happen?

I keep looking at this lineup. Is this really the best we can do not even three seasons after having the best offense in baseball? Should it fall this far this fast? You’re pinning your hopes on Robel Garcia, a tinder-swipe of a hope if there ever was one? Ian Happ?

It’s much more fun and much easier to yell at the Ricketts, and they would deserve it. But let’s cut through to the heart of it. The cash the Ricketts aren’t opening up for Theo and Jed is for them to buy their way out of the holes in the team the system they made hasn’t filled. Since 2015 and basically Javier Baez’s recall (who wasn’t their draft pick, remember, though that doesn’t mean they didn’t develop him), who has come up through the Cubs system and proven a piece? You can search all you like, you won’t find one.

But is that fair? Because after a stretch of developing or acquiring Rizzo, Arrieta, Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Hendricks, Rondon–all at least unproven before arrival–is it really the expectation you can keep at that pace? Well, yeah, because others are doing it, but that is two Cy Young finalists/winners and two MVP finalists/winners.

Still, it feels like from standing on top of the baseball world not yet three seasons ago, the Cubs have been passed by the Dodgers, Astros, possibly Braves now, Yankees, Red Sox, and you might even convince yourself or me to throw one or two other teams on there. They deservedly beat the Dodgers in six games but from that October night, the Dodgers have added Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Walker Buehler, Alex Verdugo, rehabilitated Joc Pederson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and still were able to trade for Yu Darvish and Manny Machado in that time, and still have one of the best systems in baseball, with Gavin Lux just twiddling this thumbs waiting for a spot.

It feels like the Dodgers have sprinted miles ahead, with their better records in ’17 and this year…except the Cubs won more games last year in a tougher division. But they didn’t beat the Rockies at home, the Dodgers did. Am I really going to hang that conclusion on a coin-flip and the small sample size of the playoffs?

This team won 95 games last year with half a Bryant, basically no Darvish, and bullpen crumbling as the season went along like it was sent from the Acme Co. We bitch and moan about Maddon now, but sure that was actually excellent managing, no?

The Astros created their super team, swung trades for Verlander and Cole, and still have Yordan Alvarez punching holes in the sky, and Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley waiting. Now maybe the latter two will turn out to be nothing…but with their track record, is that what you’re betting on?

Meanwhile, back here at the ranch, it’s Ian Happ being rightly demoted. It’s the stock in Kyle Schwarber they kept telling us they had to buy that has yet to produce 1 WAR this year in his nearly fourth full campaign. It’s whatever iteration of sadness Albert Almora is today. It’s Carl Edwards being wheelbarrowed to the zoo. It’s Addison Russell hopefully being locked in a dungeon to never see the light of day. It’s ANY pitcher that doesn’t actually exist.

And what’s on the way? Nico Hoerner? The 12 minutes Alzolay will be healthy? Miguel Amaya three years down the line when everyone may have left by free agency already?

Am I going to be that guy in 25 years (no, I’ll be long dead but go with this) barking at some poor kid about how he missed out on 2016, just like I’ve heard about 1985 a zillion and a half times? Yes, I absolutely will be, because 2016 was that worth it and also very well might be all we have. And that kid will long for the season he remembers just as fondly, only so he or she can stop hearing about 2016 again. And if that season also should end for them with Rex Grossman fumbling away the World Series, boy wouldn’t the symmetry be complete?

Should there be more money? Of course there should be. They’re worth $2 billion, after all. But that doesn’t absolve the front office either. The trade for Aroldis Chapman was “necessary,” (only convinced of this after Strop and Rondon both got hurt that year, but had they stayed healthy also think they would have been enough). The Quintana trade was worth it. But as stated above, your rivals were trading for All-Stars and top of the rotation pieces. And their systems survived those culls. Yours hasn’t. Why?

And yet…we’re talking about two seasons? 2017 and 2019? Because 2018 saw them win the most games in the NL. Can we really be that upset about that? And 2017, it was kind of understood it was going to be a slog from the get-go. Then again, that’s when they told us their “second wave” would start. Well, I’m still sitting on my board in the sun, and it’s getting hot and I’m getting burned.

It’s not good enough. It was more than good enough. And here we are, stuck in the middle with this.

 

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Phillies 27-19   Cubs 27-17

GAMETIMES: Monday and Wednesday 7:05, Tuesday 6:05, Thursday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Monday and Wednesday, WGN and ESPN Tuesday, ABC Thursday

BLEW UP THE CHICKEN MAN’S HOUSE: The Good Phight (sky point Crashburn Alley)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jake Arrieta vs. Yu Darvish

Zach Efflin vs. Jose Quintana

Cole Irvin vs. Cole Hamels

Aaron Nola vs Jon Lester

PROBABLE PHILLIES LINEUP

Andrew McCutchen – LF

Jean Segura – SS

Bryce Harper – RF

Rhys Hoskins – 1B

J.T. Realmuto – C

Cesar Hernandez – 2B

Odubel Herrera – CF

Maikel Franco – 3B

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Victor Caratini – C

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Addison Russell – SS

 

It’s a bit silly to talk about playoff previews, but given the way the Mets and Nationals are intent on sucking their own toes right now, it’s not hard to envision the Phillies being around in October. And with the Cubs at the top of their division as well, this is certainly a series that will draw interest from outside their locales.

Ah, but the headline isn’t so much a series between two of the NL’s four best teams, which it is, but the actual return of Jake Arrieta and his date with Yu Darvish tonight. Arrieta didn’t pitch against the Cubs last year, so this feels like the actual homecoming. Sadly, there will be fans and writers who will use this as some sort of barometer or definitive statement on the Cubs decision to move on from Arrieta to Darvish, which will probably ignore that Arrieta has basically been mediocre since leaving and is still heading the wrong way. Jake doesn’t strike out as many hitters as he used to, he’s walking more, and feels like a #3 starter these days. Lucky for the Phils, that’s all he has to be.

Aaron Nola is around to carry the ace-responsibility, though he’s had issues this year with control and being eaten alive by the BABIP Dragon. He is giving up harder contact than he did last year, but he shouldn’t be surrendering a .364 BABIP. Zach Efflin has been the breakout star this year–perhaps the one Nick Pivetta was supposed to be before imploding. He’s cut his walks in half and gives up a startlingly low amount of hard contact. Cole Irvin was a top prospect who is now up, so it’s a pretty effective rotation that can live with an ok-to-good Arrieta instead of a dominant one.

The other narrative that will be barfed up repeatedly until esophaguses are worn away is Bryce Harper coming to where he “should” have been, and whether or not that’s worked out for either. As the Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, it seems to have been fine for them. Harps hasn’t set the world on fire which has him on every Philly fan’s enemies list already, and he has struck out a ton, but he’s also gotten on base a ton. He’s hitting for more than decent power, and his defense has actually been good considering that right field in Citizens’ Bank Park is like 15 square feet. His presence on on-base tendencies have certainly helped Hoskins behind him, who has MVP numbers. Jean Segura is having a luck-infused renaissance, and Cesar Hernandez is also having a boom start. J.T. Realmuto hasn’t really got going yet, and third base continues to be a black hole for the Phillies, but it’s a decent lineup

The pen has been an issue. Only Adam Morgan and Hector Neris have been accountable, with everyone else either having control or homer problems or both. David Robertson being hurt hasn’t helped, and same goes for Victor Arano. This is where you get the Fightins most easily.

God help us if Darvish doesn’t have a good start tonight and Arrieta does. There’s a Cole Derby on Wednesday, and that Nola-Lester matchup on getaway day is actually the best one of the series. The Cubs don’t need a litmus test, we know their good, but it’s always fun to see how they do against their fellow glitterati. They took two of three from the Dodgers and have split with the Brewers. This is the cream of the crop of the East, so should be enjoyable.