Hockey

They have lots of young talent! They just need time to develop! They’re going to finally make the postseason again! Management is getting its shit together, for real! You’d be forgiven for thinking that we’re talking about the White Sox, but lo, it is the Buffalo Sabres who seemingly every year are on the verge of great things only to see it go down in flames. After a truly ugly spectacle last year in the second half, they’ve brought in new coach Ralph Krueger who, despite having a name that makes him sound like an insurance salesman from Toledo, is actually NOT part of the clique of crusty old white men from which NHL GMs and coaches are typically drawn. So they say it’s really going to be different this time, but I think we’ve heard this song before…

2018-2019

33-39-10 76 pts (6th in Atlantic Division)

2.70 GF/G (23rd) – 3.27 GA/G (24th)

49.9 CF% (14th) – 47.82 xGF% (22nd)

19.5 PP (16th) – 80.9 PK (12th)

Goalies: This remains a huge weak spot for Buffalo, and in a goalie league, that’s a problem. By the total numbers Carter Hutton isn’t horrible, and at 5v5 he managed a .913 SV%/2.80 GAA on the season. But what that masks is a second half that was hot garbage, with an .895/3.56 after January 1st. Backup Linus Ullmark isn’t much better. He had a .918/2.69 at 5v5 for the year with a decent .910 after 1/1, but an .856 SV% on the PK (Hutton wasn’t spectacular either with an .883 on the PK).

All of this is to say that both of these guys are middling goalies, which won’t kill you every night if the young, snazzy defense can play well in front of them, but it means they also can’t be relied upon to win it for you if the defense shits the bed at times, nor can they be counted on to steal a few games. The Sabres have prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukonen—easily in the running for best name in the league—but he’s out with a hip injury so by the time they bring him up, if in fact he can play at the NHL level, it may be too late.

Defense: On the other hand, the defense should be a relative strength for Buffalo. The top pairing is, for now, the Rasmuses (Rasmusi?), Dahlin and Ristolainen. However, Ristolainen wants out and could be a valuable trade piece for greater forward depth (more on that later). If he’s moved out, Brandon Montour could move to the first pairing. Dahlin should continue building on a solid year (was 4th on the team in points, and the only guys beating him in possession numbers all played fewer than 35 games). Either Ristolainen or Montour, who himself should have a strong year now that he’s fully out of the Anaheim shitstorm, would make a decent partner.

Otherwise, Montour may pair with Jack McCabe. Or, Colin Miller may jump to the first pairing and then it’s Montour and McCabe on the second. None of which is terrible. And, we’ll probably see our almost-special-boy Henri Jokiharju somewhere, likely on the 3rd pairing. Yes, I’m just assuming Harju makes the lineup over Marco Scandella, although Casey Nelson could figure in as well, depending on if they want to play him and/or Harju on their off side.

Forwards: As is the style of the time, the Sabres have a top line and little else. However, it is an enviable top line, don’t get me wrong, of Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart. Like their other prodigy Dahlin, Eichel should just have more good days ahead. Last year was a career year for him with 82 points (which led the team), with Skinner and Reinhart right behind him.

Beyond that it gets a little dicey. Casey Mittelstadt needs to learn how not to suck, and if he can’t there’s an outside chance he’ll lose the 2C spot to recently drafted Dylan Cozens. However, that assumes Cozens makes huge strides really quickly, and that his thumb injury isn’t an issue (but at that age would a damn thumb really not heal? Come on). Conor Sheary and Marcus Johansson could finish out that second line, but after that, as is so often the case, there’s no depth. Do Evan Rodrigues and Jimmy Vesey do anything for you? How about Johan Larsson or Kyle Okposo? I didn’t think so. Their fourth line of Zemgus Girgensons (who is not a character from Lord of the Rings?), Larsson and Okposo might be the fourth-liniest line ever. Prospect Arttu Ruostalainen may be able to help with the depth issue, but again, that’s assuming a young guy in Europe can make the jump to the top club right away. Or maybe they can get something for the aforementioned Ristolainen—you’d have to think forward depth would be their asking price. But, it’s a lot of ifs.

Prediction: The Sabres likely won’t be the trainwreck we saw at the end of last year, but it’s doubtful they’ll be a playoff team either. If everything, literally everything, goes right, they finish with about 85-90 points—closer to 80 if not everything goes right. Maybe just maybe they take 4th in the Atlantic? It seems unlikely unless Montreal regresses and Florida fails to make a leap forward. But, spoken like a true Sox fan, even if they don’t make the postseason, they should still see a lot of improvement and maybe a faint light at the end of that tunnel.

Photo credit: theleafsnation.com

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vs.

RECORDS: Sabres 30-28-8   Hawks 27-30-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

IN A BARREL: Die By The Blade

I’ll give you the perspective as a season ticket holder. Normally, the Sabres game is one you can count on unloading for a profit. It usually doesn’t matter what state the Sabres are in, because Buffalo fans travel (or they’re already here and just come out of whatever abandoned factory they live in). Tonight’s game, I couldn’t sell for a song. Even Sabres fans couldn’t find a fuck to give about this one. That’s partly due to their own team’s slide ever since they won 10 in a row, and the Hawks not being able to be much of a draw to anyone else. The combination of the two renders this one a “non-happening.”

So let’s start with the Hawks, who return from a frankly embarrassing California trip. They needed a buzzer-beater to get past the Ducks, who have been a burned-up clown car for two months or more. They were flattened by the Kings, who had lost 10 in a row before that. Then they were simply outclassed by the Sharks, which isn’t a crime, but not something you can just shrug off when everyone didn’t care against the worst team in the conference the day before.

So now it becomes the watch to see how they respond. The season is lost, and they can say whatever they want. So can Coach Cool Youth Pastor keep his charges interested and motivated? Because he’s coming off a trip where pretty much everyone couldn’t be bothered in Los Angeles. He then had his assistant captain essentially air him out, in a way, to the press. So he’s not in the best spot here, with a team closer to giving him the Bolo Yeung wave-off than anyone in the organ-i-zation should be comfortable with.

So if the Hawks mail it in here for the last 15 games, yes that would probably be better long-term due to the draft position, but it will put Jeremy Colliton in an awfully weird position. Once a team quits on you, it’s nearly impossible to reel them back in. Whatever they may want, Keith is going to be here next year. So will Kane and Toews. You can probably count on motivation from the latter two, either due to sociopathy or professional pride, but even Toews has had his nights off this year. What if he checks out? Then you’re basically lost, and you have a lot of young players in what is becoming a more and more toxic atmosphere.

However, if Colliton can get them to recover and at least spasm one more death rattle, at least there’s hope that those who are gong to take this team forward in the future are listening. Which isn’t much, but it’s at least what I’m paying attention to.

As for on the ice matters, David Kampf returns, in for Dylan Sikura. That’s kind of annoying, but I can’t really defend Sikura too much more when he hasn’t scored. Kampf is actually more important than most realize, as his Baby Kruger ’13 act has been missed. So that’s cool. Corey Crawford gets the chance to recover from his technicolor yawn in Los Angeles.

To the Sabres, who have sunk like a stone since briefly being the talk of the league in the fall. Since that 10-gamer that was all OT and one-goal wins, they’ve gone 13-22-6, which is unsightly to say the least. And there’s not a lot to build on at the moment. They don’t score a bunch, they give up too many goals, but they’re not that close to the bottom in any category. Their summer hinges on whether they can keep Jeff Skinner, as he’s been the only winger to really dovetail with Jack Eichel.

Their big move at the deadline was to move along Brendan Guhle for Brandon Montour–the hallowed Brendan-to-Brandon upgrade–in a bid to get anything on their blue line other than Rasmus The Younger. The rest of the season will also be an evaluation of Phil Housley as coach. If the Sabres continue to break up like a too-steep reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere, he’s going to be out of a job come May. If he can pull them out of this stall, he may get one more chance.

Like a lot of not-quite teams, the Sabres are one line. There’s Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart, and then whatever you find at the bottom of your trash can when you take the bag out. Evan Rodrigues is centering the second line, for god’s sake. Casey Middlestadt carries a lot of hope but not a lot of production yet. Kyle Okposo went back to his home planet. There’s nothing else really worth talking about.

This is one of a few games left on the schedule that will take place merely because they have to. There’s nothing riding on it, so just try and enjoy the spectacle of a hockey game. There’s not much else I can say about it.

 

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess. This is the Q&A we did with her a month ago when the Hawks were in Buffalo, and things were a bit rosier for all of us. 

The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?

They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.

What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?

Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.

Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?

It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.

Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…

I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

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Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

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 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 18-24-9   Sabres 25-19-6

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WEARING THE KELSO HELMET: Die By The Blade

The Hawks escape the Polar Vortex, and their bye-week, only to arrive in the constant vortex of misery and ice that is Buffalo, New York. As Harry T. Stone once said, “Why don’t you just sleep in your refrigerator?” They’ll find there a Sabres team still dog-paddling furiously to find the refuge of a playoff spot, but seemingly can’t get any closer after their one hot-streak of the season.

The Sabres seem to suffer from what’s been going around with a lot of teams on either side of the periphery of the playoff cutoff, and that’s they’re one line and then a bunch of understudies and scenery. You’ve seen this in Dallas, Colorado, Vancouver to an extent, Edmonton for like four minutes, Boston, and the like.

Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart (the one good Reinhart) form a deadly unit. Skinner is on his way to his first 40-goal season, Eichel is averaging a point-per-game for the first time. They’ve kept the Sabres in most games every night, and they had one streak where they found a way to win every game they were in. Which is the only reason they have any hope of a playoff spot now. Throw in competent goaltending in spots from either Carter Hutton or Linus Ullmark, and you get a team that’s slightly above an also-ran but not nearly ready for primetime either.

Because there’s isn’t anything behind that line. Casey Mittelstadt will be a fine player one day, but is learning the ropes. Kyle Okposo died of dysentery. Jason Pominville is three days older than water. Evan Rodrigues helps prove the theory that if you wore a letter for your college team, you suck. There’s just no secondary scoring here.

Perhaps one day Rasmus Dahlin will chip in big-time with that, but as promising as he is asking him to do it at 18 from the blue line is a bit much. Rasmus The Lesser (Ristolainen) has always been a fraud and maybe now they’re even realizing it in Buffalo. The rest of the defense is basically plugs like Zach Bogosian or Marco Scandella, or players who just never got there like Nathan Beaulieu and Jake McCabe. Again, there’s a top tier base here in Dahlin, the Sabres just need to fill in the rest behind. Or wait until their other prospects do so. It’s a project.

For the Hawks, they’ll start the post All-Star break “push” with a weird road-trip that goes east-to-west. with tomorrow night in Minnehaha to face the equally confounding Wild before decamping for Edmonton to face the always hilarious Oilers. Maybe the schedule makers just wanted the Hawks to see the three places consistently colder than Chicago for perspective.

Cam Ward will get the start, with Collin Delia getting the nod for what is the more “important”divisional game in the Hawks’ heads only. In theory, you might have to haul down the Wild to get into the playoffs, so if the Hawks do rip off 15 in a row the two points tomorrow will matter more. Or something. I just work here, ok?

As for other lineup changes, I would imagine that Carl Dahlstrom comes in for the bewilderingly-demoted Jokiharju, though Forsling was activated and could be chosen to waste all of our time again. Connor Murphy will probably stare quizzically at Slater Koekkoek all night, while the revival act of Marlboro 72 continues to not sell out theaters nationwide. Boy, this is fun. Whatever two of Perlini, Kunitz, and Hayden floats your boat will play. No, it does not matter.

The Hawks are back. And there was must rejoicing.

 

 

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It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Rasmus Dahlin is ahead of his class of rookie defensemen. That should happen when you’re the #1 pick overall, and you’ve been touted as a generational talent since basically your balls dropped. It’s especially so when it’s something of a weak class of weak, neophyte d-men, with only Miro Heiskanen in Dallas, and maybe Rasmus Andersson in Calgary looking like they may be long-term, enjoyable playthings (and if you squint, Henri Jokiharju. Though you’ll have to squint a fuck of a lot harder now to see him in Winnebago County). Still, the Sabres couldn’t ask much more of Dahlin so far.

He’s put up just about a point every other game, That might not sound like much, but there have only been four players to have completed an NHL season on the blue line at the tender age of 18. They are Aaron Ekblad, Zach Bogosian (Dahlin’s partner), Jakob Chychrun, and Dahlin (40 games minimum). Dahlin sure looks like he’s going to get past Ekblad’s 39 points at 18, though it should be noted that it’s a higher scoring environment and Ekblad isn’t really supposed to be the fireworks factory that Dahlin projects to be. Still, better than a point every two games would make him the first to do it at this age since his coach Phil Housley managed it in 1983 (EIGHTY-THREE). Boy, the Sabres sure have surrounded him with people who have shared experience, huh?

Hell, to make it more impressive, only 10 players since 1980 have managed better than 40 points from the back at even 19. Zach Werenski, Mikhail Sergachev, and Cam Fowler are recent names to have done it, but there have only been 39 players that young to manage a half-season or more in the NHL in the past 20 years at all.

Which makes you wonder how one Adam Boqvist is going to fare when he comes up for air next year. Because he doesn’t have Dahlin’s size, but Dahlin has his skating ability. We just saw Henri Jokiharju get sent down because he couldn’t deal with the physicality of the league, or at least that’s what the Hawks are claiming. The challenge for Boqvist at 5-8 or whatever he actually may be, is clear. To expect first-pairing production for him is…well, it’ll be a hurdle, that’s for sure.

Dahlin’s relative metrics aren’t as impressive, as he’s adhered pretty close to the team rate on most counts, and lags behind Jokharju and Ozhiganov in Toronto among his class in terms of relative-Corsi and scoring-chances. And the Sabres are pretty much the same possession team the Hawks are, and pretty paltry when it comes to their share of scoring-chances. Still, to ask someone who is years away from drinking legally (of course, this is Buffalo, and we know how young people there tend to find a way) to rise above what his teammates are doing consistently.

The key to Dahlin is the eye-test of course, where his skating will immediately jump out at you. He still has that young d-man problem of trying to do too much and skating himself into blind alleys, but once that gets sorted you’ll probably have one of the most effective puck-movers in the game. The kid certainly doesn’t lack for confidence.

Which puts the Sabres in the catbird’s seat. Jack Eichel starts making his real money next year, but the Sabres don’t really have anyone else to re-sign, depending on your opinion of Zemgus Girgensons (and you don’t have one). If they could fool someone into taking fellow Rasmus (Ristolainen) away they would have nearly $40 million in space to play with. Sure, Buffalo isn’t exactly a free agent hotbed, but money is green just about anywhere. They’ll want Jeff Skinner to stay, though his likely 40-goal season puts him in $7-8M range. He’s also an asshole, But teams have gotten around that before, and Eichel has never had a winger like him to play with.

#1 d-men are just about the hardest thing to find, an dit’s hard to think of a team that’s gotten a parade without one (though the Capitals spring to mind, and even they had John Carlson putting up #1 points at least). The Sabres look to have that. Now it’s about everything else.

 

Game #52 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess. 

The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?

They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.

What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?

Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.

Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?

It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.

Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…

I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.

 

Game #52 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

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Next stop on the Preview Tour in the Flortheast Division are the Buffalo Sabres, who after years of tanking both intentionally and unintentionally, finally landed the top overall pick in a year where it was almost impossible for them to screw it up. The Sabres were dead last in the league in almost any conceivable category last year, so in theory there’s nowhere for them to go but up, but this is still the city of Buffalo being discussed here, no there can’t be much that’s ruled out.

 

’17-’18 Team Marks: 25W-45L-12OT 62 PTS 199 GF 280 GA 19.1% PP 77.9% PK 47.61% CF 6.14% SH% .916 SV%

Goalies: Every year there’s a career backup that finally earns starter’s money from a desperate dipshit franchise desperate to find any kind of answer in net, and this year’s magic couple are the Buffalo Sabres and former Hawk great Carter Hutton. Hutton was admittedly stellar last year for St. Louis even playing way more than he had to while Jay Gallon continually shat himself, posting a .931 save percentage overall and .937 at evens in 26 starts and 32 total appearances. Both marks are 15 points above his usual rates, and Hutton will be 33 in December. Given how far away the Sabres are from meaningful spring hockey, this is clearly a team paying Hutton to be a placeholder, and a career journeyman finally getting a legit payday even at a decidedly modest $2.75 million a year for this season and two more. Everyone seems to get what they need out of this transaction even if none of it is all that inspiring for anyone from an actual standpoint of winning hockey games. Linus Ullmark at 25 and with 26 NHL games to his resume gets his shot at backing up Hutton, and if last year proves to be a major outlier for Hutton, Ullmark may get more of a look than that, but at least he has some shot of mattering the next time the Sabres do, which will be 10 minutes after never at this rate.

Defense: This is where top overall draft pick Rasmus Dahlin will be featured from day 1, and by all accounts from any scouting expert, Dahlin is close to a sure fire #1 defenseman as there’s been in the draft in a generation, with a rare combination of size, speed, skill, and hockey smarts. And he’ll need it, because the Sabres other Rasmus on the blue line, Ristolainen, has been kind of a giant turd. While Risto has put up solid scoring numbers from the blue line with two straight 40+ point seasons on dog ass teams, 48 of his 86 points in that time have come on the power play, and only last year was he even close to hovering around an already putrid team possession rate. And at 346 professional games, he’s long past the 200 game “getting it” threshold arbitrarily attributed to developing defensemen. In an ideal world however, the younger of the Rasmii now assumes the mantle of a true #1 that can legitimately handle top assignments and tougher zone starts, while Risto is given a more sheltered role. But there’s kind of no clearer indicator of a team in disarray than hoping a rookie will help a 5th year pro making $5.4 mildo a year by slotting him down. Zach Bogosian, Marco Scandella, and Beaulieu are all here, but they’re all of next to no long term consequence. Beaulieu at 25 maybe, but even that’s pushing it, as he would have shown even a flash of something by now if he were going to.

Forwards: Whether anyone has been paying attention or not, and they haven’t, over the last two years, Jack Eichel has put up 121 points in 128 games, a .945 point per game clip. However there are two problems with this scenario, the first being that hockey seasons are 82 games long and 128 games is a lot less than 164 for two years. The second is that the guy picked ahead of Eichel, whom the Sabres nakedly prostrated themselves for in a tank effor has put up well over 200 points in that time frame. It’s not fair to Eichel to be compared to Connor McDavid, but he’s always going to be. And now he doesn’t have any protection on the center depth chart with Ryan O’Reilly getting traded to St. Louis for a big bag of bullshit coming back in the form of Patrik Berglund. But for as one sided as that trade was against the Sabres, getting Jeff Skinner for a prospect no one had ever heard of was as equal a theft. He and Eichel should form a fun top line together with whatever’s left of Kyle Okposo, but past that, hoping for the likes of Conor Sheary and Zemgus Gerginsons to make meaningful contributions is just flat out depressing. Sam Reinhart showed some growth last year increasing his goal output from 17 to 25, so naturally he remains one of the few RFA holdouts left league wide. Casey Middlestadt should get more time this year, but he’s not going to offer any protection to Eichel.

Outlook: It’s going to once again be an excruciatingly long winter for Sabres fans and players, and it’s pretty well documented how Phil Housely likes to entertain himself on go-nowhere teams. The only veteran pieces of any value that can be moved (assuming that the team still wants to build around Eichel) with expiring paper are Skinner and Jason Pominville, who already earned a spot on the All “Who Gives A Shit” Team last week. And within the context of this division, there’s not going to be any quick turnaround in sight considering how good the top of the division is and just how truly bad the Senators are trying to be.

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 30-33-8   Sabres 22-36-12

PUCK DROP: High Noon

TV: WGN, NHL Network outside the 606

FIGHTING ON ARRIVAL: Die By The Blade

I’ll start this one with a story about what this one feels like. Many years ago, I was sitting in an OTB with my father and Freddie The Beard, something of a Chicago pool room legend now. Both avid horseplayers, as was I. Arlington ran a race with four horses, apprentice jockeys, on the turf. Freddie, never one for subtlety, turned to Tribune Horse Racing columnist Dave Feldman (at the time probably something like 138 years old) who happened to be sitting in the same room, and yelled, “Hey Feldman! Use your connections to get us more of ‘dis! We like ‘dis! Four horse race with the apprentice jockeys…on the turf!”

That’s how I feel about this one. This is a game going on because the schedule says it has to. No one particularly wants to watch it (and I’d be surprised if more than a few didn’t want to play it), and yet here we are because this is where we are. Hawks-Sabres. Saturday afternoon. March 17th. This is what we chose.

Both of these teams have dreams of Rasmus Dahlin, though the Sabres’s is much more likely. They are marooned to the bottom of the NHL standings, and really only the Coyotes are keeping them company down there. It has been nothing short of a disaster in a season when they were supposed to start to at least maybe think about considering taking a step forward in their rebuild.

It’s hard to know where to start. The goaltending has sucked, as it will tend to do when leaning on Chad Johnson and Robin Lehner. The defense has sucked because it was based on Rasmus Ristolainen playing like a top pairing d-man and quite frankly he’s never nor will he ever be that, despite some early season flashes. It had Zach Bogosian and Justin Falk and Jake McCabe as well at times, so you can guess what kind of smell that created night after night. The forwards lacked punch, as Eichel and Okposo have missed time and there’s just not much else. Sam Reinhart is still finding his feet, and also trying to figure out which Reinhart he is. Benoit Pouliot and Jason Pominville are either old, simply plugs, or both. It is not an inspiring bunch.

Because of that, and the moves at the deadline that saw Fuck Head Kane The Younger amongst others moved along, the Sabres are turning more and more over to the kids. Bailey, Baptiste, Eichel, Reinhart, Rodrigues, Guhle, and Ristolainen are all players that are under 25 that will kick into the lineup when healthy. The Sabres are going to find out what they have, because it’ll be good info and also will give them the best chance to end up with another Rasmus. You can never have too many Rasmuses (Rasmi?)

For today, both Eichel and Okposo look like they won’t make the bell coming off an ankle sprain and brown brain, respectively. Which means the outfit the Hawks will see today is decidedly punchless. Ryan O’Reilly is simply doing miraculous work as the only forward who’s been above water in his underlying numbers, and he also murders the Hawks. But he can only do so much. Then again, things seem to always go stupid at HSBC Arena. The Hawks never have it easy there.

For the Hawks, JF Berube will get his turn at the wheel after Forsberg’s wheel kept on turning in net on Thursday. And then we’ll cycle back through this again and again for another three weeks. We’re almost there, people. There really aren’t any other lineup changes to be made with Duclair injured. Q shuffled up the lines during practice yesterday and below the top one they’re a real piece of work. But who knows how long he’ll stick with them because that’s his thing.

Let’s just get through it.

 

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Jack Eichel wouldn’t be the first to watch the aura of Buffalo simply sap any knowledge of his existence from the Earth. Really only Dominik Hasek has been able to make a name for himself there, and he had to flee to Detroit to actually win something. Did you know James Lofton actually played football instead of just talked about it? Remember Andre Reed? Of course you don’t 13,000 yards receiving before it was cool. We bet  you think LeSean McCoy died after his days as an Eagle. Nope, He plays in Buffalo. We know, right?

Eichel has suffered because of some things out of his control. One, it’s hot his fault his main contemporary, Connor McDavid, has a Hart Trophy already, made the second round of the playoffs, and has turned various family size cans of tuna like Patrick Maroon or Milan Lucic into useful things for at least a little while. Eichel can’t help that the defense behind him has always been the remedial clown college. It’s not Eichel’s fault the goaltending has been at best up-and-down, and at times looked like a collection of newborn gorillas.

You may not know this, but Eichel’s career 0.84 PPG mark for his first three years at ages 19-21 ranks him comfortably along Tavares, Hall, Toews, and Kopitar at the same ages. And in all their cases aside from Toews basically, they were each playing with trash.

But that’s the thing with Eichel. He hasn’t exactly played with trash.

Last year he mostly skated with Sam Reinhart, who while still young is hardly inept. This year it was Evander Kane, and while we might want to see him come up close and personal with a flame-thrower he’s a talented player, and Jason Pominville, who admittedly at this point in his career is dust and bones. His rookie year saw him mostly with Kane as well. Again, these aren’t world-beaters, but they’re better than Maroon or Lucic.

And what’s a touch worrying is that these players don’t seem to get better with Eichel. Kane’s, before the trade, and Pominville’s metrics stay about the same whether they’re playing with Eichel or not. But Eichel’s go down measurably. It was the same last year.

What may be frustrating Sabres fans just a touch is that given his pedigree, it feels like there should be a touch more from him. Quite simply in the past ten years, no college freshman has come close to Eichel’s 71 points at BU, except for Kyle Connor at Michigan. Connor potted his 25th goals against the Hawks on Thursday, a total that Eichel has yet to see. Though given injuries, he probably would have. Again, he’s not been bad, but it’s fair to question if there shouldn’t be more. Also considering he’s already gotten a coach fired.

On the plus side, Eichel’s possession rates have improved every year relative to his team, though even that comes with the caveat that he’s had to have his zone starts really sheltered this year. He starts over 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone for a team that doesn’t get there very often. A true #1 should be able to start anywhere, you’d hope.

Eichel still promises the moon, and maybe given different winger who set him up more than he’s had he’ll truly take off. He’s definitely a shoot-first guy and hasn’t really had a playmaker with him. The Sabres aren’t going anywhere until that happens.

 

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Melissa Burgess is a writer for DieByTheBlade.com. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess.

We’ll start with the franchise, that’s Jack Eichel. For the second season in a row he’s about a point per game, and he’s missed a chunk of time with injury. Is the injury part the only facet that’s keeping him from lifting this team above the morass? Is it more than that?

It’s part the injury, but one player does not a team make. Obviously, and understandably, Eichel is the face of the franchise right now, and the injury has definitely hurt him and the Sabres – but it’s been a tire fire of a season for a while now. Eichel can’t lift this team out of the ground on his own. He needs other players to step up too, and sometimes you get that, and sometimes you don’t. He can only do so much on his own, but he makes other players better – and they make him better, too.

Kyle Okposo with only 11 goals?

Honestly, I’m just glad to see Okposo playing hockey this season. His health issues last summer were disconcerting and you just never know how that’s going to change a guy’s life, and his career to boot. He’s not done a whole lot this season – like you said, 11 goals – and you just hope he’s okay. And now he’s out with a concussion, but skated Friday morning, which again — it’s just good to see. Long-term, though, I’m not sure what happens with him. Obviously his health should be the main priority.

Is Sam Reinhart going to be a part of this turnaround or is he benefitting from getting prominent time because no one else has earned it?

You know, for a little bit there, I thought Reinhart might actually get moved at the trade deadline. I’m glad he didn’t. I think he’s a key part of the young talent on the Sabres, though he’s being overlooked by some people now who are focusing more on guys like Eichel and future guys like Mittelstadt. A lot of guys have seen their roles increased due to Eichel’s injury, their ice time upped, etc. but I think he’s one of the guys who deserves it.

Brendan Guhle was a second round pick three years ago. He barely needed a half season in the AHL before getting called up. Anything here?

I think he’s a special one and definitely going to garner more attention soon. I like his style of playing and I think he’s proven – so far – that he wants to be in the NHL, and that he’ll do what it takes to get there. I like him, and I think we’ll be seeing more of him in the NHL soon, provided there’s a spot for him.

How are the Sabres going to turn this around, finally?

Good question! I wish I had all the answers. I think it’s a combination of getting guys like Eichel, Reinhart, even youngsters like Nylander, Mittelstadt, Bailey, etc. really seasoned in the NHL and figuring out how to best showcase their talents. Getting guys to play with them who can make them better and be improved by playing with them – that’s key. Then you’ve got to fill the gaps with free agents or players who really want to be here and who are going to put in the effort, night in and night out. And of course — goaltending, which I think is something the Sabres still need to figure out. Robin Lehner isn’t the answer, and I don’t think Chad Johnson is, either.. Year after year we hear about the rebuild, we hear it’s another year away, etc. Sabres fans are exhausted.

 

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