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I.E. D.C. F*** You: Hawks 0 – Caps 154

By 1442

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And sometimes the bear… well, he eats you.

Overall, the Caps are probably a better team than the Hawks. They’re deeper at both forward and defense, and it’s one of the few teams the Hawks have no advantage in goal against. Right now is most certainly not the time to be playing the Caps, who are now winners of eight in a row. Add to that they’re probably feeling their oats even more after skulling the Penguins at home on Wednesday night. So this is the Caps at the height of their powers.

Whether you think the Hawks are short in places, or don’t really care in the middle of January, or some combo thereof, the results tonight were especially ugly.

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One Goal Is Apparently The Mantra On The Ice As Well

By 1675

Last night, the Hawks ratcheted up yet another one-goal victory, their league-leading 17th. That is by some distance, as the next best team has 13 one-goal wins. That doesn’t mean the Hawks have the best win % in one-goal games, which belongs to the Flames (Hawks are 6th in that category). No one is playing more and winning more one-goal games.

But of course that started what few functioning neurons I had left to stir. Are one-goal wins really a matter of skill or know-how, or are they luck? Obviously, the answer is probably a blending of the two but I still wanted to know. In baseball, the only other sport where the scoring is somewhat similar to hockey–but only somewhat–it’s been a given that one-run wins are mostly luck. Or at least they don’t speak to what kind of team you have. After all, your 103-win and World Series Champion Cubs were merely 22-23 in one-run games, and no one is going to say they weren’t the best team in baseball.

Does it work the same in hockey? In order to find out we’re going to have to get in up the elbow in numbers, so put on your rubber gloves. And for just another bullet point in how dumb the NHL site is, they include OT and SO wins in their one-goal wins category but not in the one-goal loss category. The conspiracy to inflate the standings goes deeper than you think, sheeple!!!

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This Used To Be My Playground: Wings at Hawks Preview/Roof Tiling

By 1355

RECORDS: Wings 17-18-5  Hawks 26-12-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: WGN

THAT NERD LOOKS LIKE JAM: Winging It In Motown

PROJECTED LINEUPS

ADJUSTED TEAM CORSI%: Wings – 47.9 (23rd)  Hawks – 49.9 (16th)

ADJUSTED TEAM xGF%: Wings – 47.9 (22nd)  Hawks – 47.8 (23rd)

POWER PLAY %: Wings – 11.2 (Dead Ass Last)  Hawks – 18.5 (15th)

PENALTY KILL %: 83.2 (9th)  Hawks – 76.1 (28th)

TRENDS: The Wings are o-for their last-54 on the power play. They’re even putting Steve Ott on it. I can’t begin to express the joy this makes me feel.

This has been something of a sweetheart homestand for the Hawks. The Sabres are awful, the Preds are hurt and struggling, the Canes were the biggest challenge and overcome, and now it ends with the complete hobo village that is the Detroit Red Wings these days. Guys… seriously, you haven’t seen a Wings team this bad since names like Barr, Burr, Cheveldae, Gallant, and Racine were involved. And chances are, you don’t recognize any of those names, which is just how long it’s been.

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Have A Lucky Day: Hawks 5 – Predators 2

By 1582

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That’s harsh on the Hawks. For the first time on this homestand, the scoreboard mostly reflected the play on the ice. The Hawks were certainly better in the first and second periods than at any point against Carolina. And they led on the scoreboard for most of the game, unlike the Buffalo encounter.

But when you get that jammy goal that marked the winner, and the Preds hit three posts in the final frame, you have to admit you have something of a horseshoe up your ass. And it’s been that way for the Hawks most of the season. But you’ll always take the points, no matter how they come, and the Hawks will remain on top of the West for longer.

Let’s clean it up.

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Good For What Ails Ya: Hawks 3 – Sabres 3 (Hawks win Calf-roping)

By 1357

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Some of these aren’t so complicated. The Hawks would have won this by three or four goals, and certainly deserved to, if not for the heroics of Anders Nilsson. The Sabres quite frankly are an unfortunate hockey team, and the Hawks mauled them all over the ice. They had 20 shots in the first, and it’s not like the 23 they managed from there are bad. Sure, it took Anisimov getting a bounce with two minutes to go and get the right break in the Rugby 7’s after regulation, but it’s two points and those are always welcome when the Wild are right on your ass. If finishing first means anything, which we’ll figure out later.

The Hawks were punished for all their mistakes. Seabrook channeling last year’s version by lazily going to collect a puck and then belching it up the boards right to Foligno. Keith getting his pocket picked by Okposo. Rasmussen and Working Class Kero not getting a puck out and leaving EichelMania to get teed up. The Sabres do come with the top end talent at forward to make you pay if you fuck up against them. Just upped the degree of difficulty, and even an OT loss there would have felt like the luck was out as well as whatever else hasn’t added up during this small streak of futility. But no matter.

Let’s clean it up:

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We All Know Iggy Is Finished, But What My Book Presupposes Is… Maybe He Isn’t?

By 1506

Let’s state right at the top that the case for Jarome Iginla is a stretch. No one’s denying that. We should also state right at the top that we’re extremely biased, because we’ve started talking about getting Iginla to the Hawks about five minutes after we started this blog in 2008. Collectively, he’s probably our favorite non-Hawks in this era, and though he might not have anything left we’d still run out and buy 12 #12 Hawks jerseys were he to arrive. And while the Hawks have bent over backwards to make various nincompoops and nitwits seem like genuinely good guys, Iggy is one. So that’s all out of the way.

The case for Iggy starts with the fact that the trade market for wingers is absolute dog vomit. Moving beyond Iggy as far as players that will be free agents in the summer, we see names such as Patrick Sharp (not sure he can see straight and the Hawks would never, ever do this after all that), Brooks Laich (old and bad), Alex Burrows (Jesus God no, and the Canucks think they’re in it anyway), Drew Stafford (he has two goals. One for Martin, Two for Martin!), Brian Gionta ok we have to stop now my eyes are bleeding now. These are not answers.

So let’s see if we can’t make the case for Iggy, even though the cap numbers are a nightmare.

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The Flash Needs More Lightning

By 1446

If you’re a Hawks fan, it might feel like you’re stuck in a bit of a time loop. Last year around this time, the Hawks were running smooth, with 48 points instead of this year’s 51. That didn’t have them in first, as the Stars were binging on everything at the table at that point, but really the Hawks aren’t too different from what we saw last year. Which is strange, because the holes on last year’s team seems so much more obvious.

The formula remains the same. The Hawks are getting other-worldly goaltending from both Crawford and Darling. Whoever is skating with Panarin, as he’s been paired with more guys this year than last, is doing most of the scoring. The power play is doing just enough. And yet, just like last year, there’s a feeling that the rug could slip out from under the Hawks at any point. That’s mostly because their underlying numbers, which would be said rug, just aren’t impressive and at some points are straight up bad.

And they center around two players, two players who have formed the pillar of everything the Hawks have done for close to a decade now. Jonathan Toews’s struggles have been well covered at this point. But it’s time to come to terms with the fact that Duncan Keith just hasn’t been very good either.

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Don’t Stop Trying And You’ll Get What You Deserve: Blues 4 – Hawks 1

By 1479

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So let’s review what is supposed to be just about the NHL’s signature day during the regular season, possibly only apart from the All-Star Game, which has its own issues.

For the day and morning leading up to it, all the news pretty much had to do with how this game had little chance of getting off on time, what they would do if it didn’t, and what would happen if they had to abandon in midgame. This is not exactly how you build momentum toward an occasion. This is obviously always a problem for outdoor games, but this one was particularly pronounced.

When it came out that the Hawks and Blues would have to engage in a shootout in two months’ time in case this game was ended early, but after two periods, and tied, it had the mark of a league that didn’t have a plan or shouldn’t be taken seriously.

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See You Later, Screwy. Maybe: Hawks at Blues Winter Classic Preview/Rain Dance

By 1336

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 23-11-5  Blues 19-13-5

PUCK DROP: Noon, or so they say

TV: W-ENN-BEE-SEE! W-ENN-BEE-SEE! Waste not want not, Robyn.

EVEN BUSCH STADIUM WON’T LET THEM IN: St. Louis Gametime

PROJECTED LINEUPS

ADJUSTED TEAM CORSI %: Hawks – 49.7 (16th)  Blues – 51.5 (11th)

ADJUSTED TEAM xGF%: Hawks – 46.9 (26th)  Blues – 50.5 (15th)

POWER PLAY %: Hawks – 19.0 (15th)  Blues – 21.6 (8th)

PENALTY KILL %: Hawks – 75.0 (28th)  Blues – 86.0 (4th)

For the most part, I’m positive on outdoor games. While most of us Inside Baseball have soured on them, citing the disappearance of the novelty, the lack of interesting, first-time venues, the continued use of the same teams, and whatever else, the NHL season is long and monotonous. Whatever can break it up, whatever can spike the meter here and there, is welcome. While it isn’t by the books that some teams will play a game with different conditions than all the rest, one out of 82 shouldn’t really queer things to a noticeable point.

And yet this one is shaping up to be a giant mess. Then again, that’s kind of perfect for St. Louis, isn’t it?

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It’s The Little Things That Make Up Life: Hawks 2 – Canes 3

By 1392

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Like most every game in the NHL these days, given how little difference there is the talent distribution now, most games come down to a couple moments here and there. Tonight was two of them. The one in the 1st period where the Hawks gave up two goals in 65 seconds (and could have been more in that frame). The second was in the 3rd when Darling couldn’t save McClement’s chance from the slot after a Kane giveaway, and then a minute later when Ward was able to stymie Hartman when Hartman was in the slot all alone. That’s not to be harsh on Darling, who was excellent in the 1st period when he had to be. It’s not a save you’d expect him to make. It really wasn’t a save you’d expect Ward to make, either. But the Hawks success this year is built on Darling and Crawford making saves they shouldn’t make. And then cashing in the limited chances they get. Didn’t work that way tonight.

That is also a bit harsh, because the last 40 minutes were a far more solid effort than the first 20 and far better than anything we saw last night. The Hawks just couldn’t make it count, once again getting scoring from only one line, just not the line that normally does it.

Let’s clean it up and then adjourn for the New Year.