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It’s unfair, and nearly impossible, to get a handle on what kind of job Jeremy Colliton is doing after 17 games. I could sit here and say that the Hawks don’t quit even when they’ve been down for what is it, 13 straight games? And I could say that he doesn’t have anything to work with, especially on the blue line. I could say that they’re not getting saves (though they did tonight to a point). I could say a lot of things.

But then there’s the starts. And whatever the problems are on the roster, and they are numerous, there’s no way we can sit here and say that the Hawks haven’t consistently come out unready to play. You can’t fall behind for as many games in a row as it is now, and usually my multiple goals, and claim otherwise. And that has to be coaching. Or preparation. Whatever you want to call it.

Now maybe it’s on the players, who got one coach fired and don’t seem to be responding to the next one until there’s a certain level of embarrassment/professionalism/both. But you’d think you’d find a way to get through to everyone, veterans and neophytes alike, to get that to kick in when the first puck drops. It’s been a month since they have. That’s on someone.

Sure, lack of talent is the biggest culprit. But then explain an effort like this from one of your alternate captains:

Maybe Seabrook is so used to getting beat to the outside that he was just turning and getting ready for it. But facing the wrong way and just leaving your stick out there in the hopes that Kyle Connor would somehow trip himself or something, that’s a shit-assed effort. That’s I-couldn’t-give-a-fuck effort. And that’s from a player playing catch-up most nights when he does care.

And he still gets 22 minutes of time. Now, perhaps Colliton fears he simply can’t go to the mat with any of his veterans, but at some point that bleeds from reverence to no one’s accountable. And that’s only going to get worse if it goes unchecked. Maybe the perception would be Seabrook is the easy target, because Quenneville scratched him once last year. But it also wouldn’t make it much of a shock for the rest of the team. Colliton has played tough guy/bad cop the last time the Hawks were outclassed in Winnipeg in the press. At some point that has to happen with the team.

That doesn’t mean going Jim Fucking Boylen on the Hawks, I don’t care about bag skates. I don’t care about turning over postgame spreads or anything like that. But someone is going to have to pay for any part of this with ice time, and stripping it from a young player isn’t the answer.

Fin.

The Two Obs

-The other mark against Colliton is that the Hawks continue to not have any communication in the defensive zone. Don’t fool yourself, switching from the zone system the Hawks used to play to the man system they want now isn’t like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The principles are at least based on the same thing. It’s amazing how many times you look and you’ll see the Hawks have everyone covered, and then simple movement from an attacker and a lack of talking either causes the Hawks to not switch guys or completely ignore someone on the other side of the ice. That isn’t about talent. That isn’t anyone getting beat. That’s just a lack of attention to detail.

-There isn’t much else to point out, because you don’t learn anything when the game is over after 15 minutes and the only reason it becomes anything of a contest is because the team leading is already making plans for the night after the showers. so let’s talk about Eddie Olczyk’s and Pat Foley’s race to be the next Hawk Harrelson.

It’s clear Eddie’s war on analytics is directed at Stan Bowman, and perhaps at whoever else told Eddie he couldn’t be a coach or GM because of his dismissal of them. We’ve spilled countless words on the idiocy of this “fight.” Mostly because every other sport, including soccer by the way, has long ago accepted that there is useful information to be found within them and it helps build a team to win.

And Pat and Eddie’s contention that they don’t tell you who wins battles, as close as it is to Hawk’s TWTW mantra, is quite simply wrong. Because it tells you who gets the puck. Which is generally a good idea, or so I thought.

I’m resigned to the rest of the season being Eddie essentially reading his resume on air a la Mark Jackson a few years ago on NBA broadcasts, and Foley being his hype-man. I can only hope Eddie keeps displaying the reasons why no one should ever hire him.

-Also their 10 minute discussion of the 80s Oilers and 90s Penguins wasn’t all that far off from Hawk’s love letters to Yaz.

-Last point, Olczyk did claim that they both think the goaltending has been good. Crawford is at .901. Ward is at .888. They have the ninth-worst SV% at evens and the 4th worst overall. So yeah, it’s been great.

-As for the on the ice. it’s clear that Dylan Strome has use. How much, don’t know yet, and his learning curve is going to be longer. He’s got the hands and vision but he’s going to have to wait until his anticipation and instincts get him to the spots he needs faster than his feet get him there now. That can happen. It may only lead him to being a poor man’s Brad Richards, but that’ll play. It certainly is going to take more than the 50 games the Coyotes gave him.

Connor Murphy is a clearly more confident player when he’s not worried about his coach painting a big, red #4 on his face and then beating Murphy over the head with a shovel every time he makes the tiniest mistake. I look forward to what it looks like when he’s up to game-speed.

Onwards…

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 9-17-5   Jets 18-9-2

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WARM JETS: Arctic Ice Hockey

When you’ve lost seven in a row for the second time in a season, and really the second time in about five weeks, I think it’s healthy to play a team that’s better than you at every single position. It’s just crazy enough to work! It’s going to be an extremely busy week for the Hawks, and I can’t see how that’s a good thing if only because they’re going to plague society with their brand of hockey four times in the next six days. It kicks off in Manitoba tonight, where they just were and pretty much got flambed until the Jets completely turned off, and then the Jets will be here again Friday. The Hawks might just be getting deeper and deeper into the hot dog machine before they come up for anything resembling air again.

Not much has changed between these two teams since they last did this in the last game of November. The Hawks haven’t won,  and the Jets have only dropped one in the last five, somehow getting shut out by the Blues at home. Maybe they did that just to tease the Hawks and let the Blues pass them in the standings. They’re just that vindictive.

At this point, there isn’t much to inform you about the Jets. You now that they’re four lines of fury. You know that the top six is probably the best in hockey. You know that Adam Lowry and Matthieu Perreault form one of the best checking lines in hockey. You know that Jack Roslovic on the fourth line is going to burst out at some point soon. You know the defense is a little shaky, and especially this season, but that it matters little when the forwards are this good. You know that Connor Hellebuyck has been having a dodgy season, but since giving up five to the Hawks (mostly after the Jets had kicked their feet up and put on sunglasses), he’s given up just six goals in his last four appearances and three in his last three. And you know that plenty of other goalies of late have used the Hawks to remember what it feels like to feel good about oneself. The Hawks have become the ugly best friend to the rest of the league.

So yeah, the Jets come into this one rolling, pretty much healthy, and needing to keep pace with the Predators and Avalanche at the top of the Central. All that spells “FUUUUUUUCKK” for the Hawks.

As for the Hawks, a couple changes. Artem Anisimov is in a dark room somewhere, so David Kampf is moving back to center…Patrick Kane? Oh dear lord. Chris Kunitz looks like he’s coming back in to fuck things up, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Alex Fortin.

Gustav Forsling isn’t eligible to come off the IR yet, so Brandon Manning should keep his place in the lineup with Brent Seabrook, at least for a while. The only pairing that Jeremy Colliton seemed inclined to keep together on Sunday was Connor Murphy and Erik Gustafsson, and everyone else rotated (though some of that was due to Manning missing a good chunk).

There’s nothing I can say to make you think this one will go well. It probably won’t. The Hawks just aren’t cut out for this type of thing anymore. Maybe you catch the Jets in a midseason malaise or Hellebuyck has a game-long sneezing fit. But hey, we’re in this together.

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

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Notes: Anisimov didn’t make the trip, which is the reason you’re getting whatever the fuck that Kahun-Kampf-Kane thing is. It’ll be Strome and Top Cat with Kane by the end of the first, you just watch… Ward starts tonight, which means Crow gets the Pens tomorrow…Murphy seemed to flatten out Gustafsson again, as they were the only pairing that Collition kept together for the most part…it’s getting near decision-day on Manning and Rutta, and no one is going to take them off the Hawks’ hands so likely Rutta is headed to Rockford…what was Martinsen doing out there with a minute left on Sunday?

Notes: Perreault is questionable tonight…the second line is one of the few where metrics don’t matter, because Laine will outshoot whatever…we kind of hope Laine ends up with over 40 goals and less than 10 assists and watch HOCKEY MEN lose their mud over it…Sami Niku could replace Kulikov…Connor’s goal against the Flyers on Sunday was his first in the last 10 games…

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

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It would seem a near impossible task to ferret out who should stand atop the pile in a week when the Hawks have lost every game, a couple in bad fashion and a couple in heartbreaking fashion. But that is our charge, and why you come here, dear reader. Because we run the hard miles over the tough obstacles. Or something. Anyway…

The Dizzying Highs

Jonathan Toews, I guess? – I suppose it’s symbolic in a way. At a time when we thought we’d seen the last of Jonathan Toews bending a game to his will, to take over pretty much every shift and pretty much force a win from his team, he can’t do it. Not because the effort wasn’t enough, because it was. It’s just too much to ask one person on this team to lift it above the morass it’s created for itself. I’m sure afterwards, Patrick Kane looked at him, put an arm on his shoulder and said, “Y’see?” The numbers aren’t wholly impressive, as Toews racked up two goals and three points in the four games. But if you watched the games, especially in Vegas, it was a glimpse of what Tazer used to be every night. Winning every puck battle, forcing the puck up the ice and toward the net, creating things out of sheer want-to. It’s comforting to know that it’s still in the chamber. It’s dispiriting that the final amount of bullets, however many there may be, are wasted on this outfit. Will there be any left when it matters again?

The Terrifying Lows

Corey Crawford – It hurts more and more to keep doing this. But we can’t run from it. .901 is .901. And while he has no defense in front of him, there are other goalies in the league facing almost as many good chances as Crow is and doing more with them. David Rittich, for example, as the same xSV% at evens as Crow. His ES SV% is .943. Crow’s is .903.

It is a herculean task, what Crawford has been asked to do, of course. Step in from 10 months out in THE GREY and then stabilize a Hawks team that essentially looks like kindergarten recess in its own zone. Where was Andreas Martinsen going last night and what was he doing out there with a minute to go? Another time for that question.

Crow let the Hawks down in Vegas when they had actually fought well and played better and deservedly had taken the lead. Same in Anaheim. It’s not good enough. And maybe this was always going to be part of the process, that his recovery would be longer and uglier than we anticipated, and more to the point, hoped. Maybe the new pad restrictions are also combining with everything else to make for hard adjustments. The rebound control would suggest.  But the Hawks simply aren’t getting a save right now. And against the Ducks and Canadiens last night, he wasn’t tasked with an abnormal load.

Thankfully, there’s basically nothing riding on this season now, and the Hawks can spend it finding out if Crow can be saved (he almost certainly will round out again sometime) or whether they start have to plan for a transition of influence to Collin Delia (who’s seeing a similar workload in Rockford so at least they’re training him well).

The Creamy Middles

Patrick Kane – I’m not sure he cares. I’m not sure he’s got the patience to see out whatever this is (I know his dad doesn’t and he’s calling the shots). And there are still shifts where you can tell the give-a-shit meter has collected at the bottom. But he still makes goals happen, as he racked up points all three games this week and had two goals last night to bring the Hawks back into it. While we weren’t looking he’s back up over a point-per-game, which is mightily impressive considering some of the linemates he’s been dragging around at times. Some think this could be the end of his time here. or we’re starting that path. I’m not so sure. And there will be a lot of writing to be done if it is.

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Canadiens 14-10-5    Hawks 9-16-5

PUCK DROP: 5pm

TV: NBCSN for the locals, NHL Network for those who aren’t

CATCHING TORCHES FOR SOME REASON: Habs Eyes On The Prize

Yadda yadda yadda Original Six matchup blah blah blah. We’re contractually obligated to mention that every time the Quebecois wash up on Madison St. Whatever allure that sort of thing has, and it still has something if only a little, is probably mostly washed away by the utter incompetence of the Hawks these days. And it might sting a little more with the Canadiens, who used to be as hapless and directionless, might have turned things around a bit.

We’ll start with the main headline for the Hawks, which is the return of Connor Murphy from his back-iotomy, which is what doc said he needed. You know things are pretty dire when you greatly anticipate the return of Murphy, who simply be maintaining the form of “fine” last year was pretty much the best Hawks defenseman. He’s better than pretty much everyone aside from Jokiharju and maybe Duncan Keith though, and his return will be welcomed.

He does seem to smooth out some things. He gives Gustafsson a partner who can cover for his constant meanderings and delusions, and they dovetailed nicely at the end of last year. It keeps Keith with Jokiharju, which I’m not a huge fan of but don’t really see a way around. Maybe at some point Murphy pairs with The Har Ju, but that leaves Keith with only problematic partnerships. For now, let’s just enjoy the two second-pairings the Hawks might actually have tonight.

Also it keeps Manning and Seabrook on strict third-pairing duty, where they can still do some damage (evidenced clearly by Thursday night in Sin City), but this is what they’re barely cut out for these days. I don’t like it any more than you.

Though what Murphy is now being 6-5 and having back surgery in a job that requires a fair amount of bending over is a thought not for the weak of heart or stomach. Let’s run that kitten over when we get to it.

For the rest of the lineup, it appears Head Coach Arthur Fortune is going with the “pairs” system, where Toews and Saad, Anisimov and Kane, and Strome and Top Cat will be continually lashed together an they’ll make up the other wing as they go along. I guess this is what happens when you’re short on wingers.

Pivoting to Les Habitants. Montreal started the year on fire, with Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin, Tomas Tatar, Paul Byron, and some others shooting the lights out at a pace that was never going to be sustainable. That’s started to cool, and the Habs with it, however the underlying structure beneath that looks solid.

While Marc Bergevin may be unable to tie his shoes or spell “cat,” he has constructed a forward unit that is basically four lines of nimble, skilled forwards. They have rookie Jesperi Kotkaniemi and fellow Finn Arturi Lehkonen on the third line, which is pretty neat. Drouin and Domi anchor the top unit (even if Drouin is never going to be a center), and Brendan Gallagher, Tatar, and Phillip Danault make for quite the second unit.

Even old horse Claude Julien has changed his…well, horses don’t have stripes but just go with me here, as the Habs are playing faster and freer than previous iterations. They have a bunch of gnats up top, so why not let them roam wild? Also, the defense is still spotty, so asking them to do less is the way to go. Jeff Petry has thrived under this system, and the returning Shea Weber will benefit from being asked merely to get the puck up quickly instead of picking out precise passes or moving all that much.

However, the foundation is creaky, because Carey Price has been REEL BAD. November was a real disaster for him, with a .888 SV% over the month. He’s only rebounded a touch in December, with four starts amassing a .912. The Habs have some of the strongest metrics as a team in the league, thanks to their speed and Julien’s tweaks, but if Price can’t get even to league average than there’s only so far you can go. The Habs currently have a two-point gap for the last playoff spot, and three on any team that’s going to matter. They’ll need Price to come in from the woods to hold onto it.

So here’s the thing. Vegas is filled with quick forwards who play fast. The Hawks usually get their lunch handed to them by that outfit. So do they by other teams who boast that. They looked better on Thursday but were undone by Seabrook and Crawford letting them down, simply. They’ll need another effort on that level to break their duck against a Habs team still feeling itself a bit. Don’t hold your breath.

 

 

Game #31 Preview Suite

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We’ll be honest, and some of you already know. The one prospect that the Hawks gave away that we thought they’d regret the most was Stephen Johns. The need on the blue line is rather obvious now, and it was obvious before Niklas Hjalmarsson and Duncan Keith starting slowing down. It felt like Johns was brought along just slowly enough to dive in with both feet when he did make it to Chicago.

Of course, he never made it to Chicago. He as a make-weight to get rid of Patrick Sharp’s bloated contract, and all the Hawks had to show for their patience, development, and extra cash they threw at Johns was a couple months of a truly bewildered Trevor Daley. That’s pretty bad. But then again, Johns has battled injury and three different coaches in Dallas, without ever really grabbing hold of a top-four spot on their defense.

Which means it’s not as bad as Phillip Danault.

Danault did make it to Chicago. More impressively, he gained Joel Quenneville’s trust. But not quite enough to be considered untouchable when it came to time to load up on veterans for 2016’s ill-fated playoff run. Danault netted just about the same nothing that Johns did, as Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann did just this side of jackshit when they were here. Weise couldn’t even gain the trust from Quenneville that Danault did.

What patience might have gotten the Hawks.

This will hurt to read. Danault currently has the eighth-best Corsi-percentage of any forward in the league. He has the 10th-best relative-CF%. He has the eighth-best xGF%, and the 15th-best relative-xGF%. Danault simply has been one of the best two-way forwards in the game. He won’t ever produce that much offensively, but he keeps the puck in the right end of the ice just about as much as anyone in the game right now.

Oh, and he does all that while getting the least amount of offensive zone starts on the Canadiens and facing the toughest competition.

Danault flashed this while on the Hawks, being dogged on the puck and responsible in his own zone. He was perfectly poised to take over from Marcus Kruger, which is exactly what the Hawks told him he would be doing when he arrived in the organization. And yet he was gone before Kruger was.

You can’t help but wonder what the Hawks might have done they had just forced Danault into the playoffs and have Q use him. Would they have felt the need in 2017 to panic and trade for Artem Anisimov if they already had another center behind Toews? Could they have moved Saad along for defensive help they so clearly needed? Perhaps a different winger?

What would it look like now? Could they have gotten Schmatlz even easier assignments with Toews and Danault around to take the harder ones? Could they do that now with Strome? You wonder

Danault isn’t breaking the bank at $3.0M for the next two years. The Hawks probably could have found a way to keep him around, especially if they weren’t tossing more at Anisimov? Where could that savings have gone?

You could go down this road with Teuvo Teravainen as well, maybe Schmaltz one day. Maybe even Ryan Hartman, though that seems a stretch. At least Hartman netted something in return. When deciding to go all-in for a Cup you better know you have a serious chance. That ’16 Hawks team was seriously flawed–it was one line and a struggling defense behind Keith and Hammer. Was it worth losing Danault’s future over?

Hindsight is 20-20, but that’s how you get in messes like this.

 

Game #31 Preview Suite

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Notes: Julien has been able to change his ways and this team plays much faster than past iterations. The top-nine here is very quick, which should go well for the Hawks…Weber just returned from injury…if you think Manning is bad, at least the Hawks didn’t sign Karl Alzner…Price has been bad for two straight seasons, which is a worry at $10 million per year…Petry is having something of a renaissance…Domi has three goals in his last 11 and two of those came in the same game…

Notes: The headline is that Connor Murphy returns tonight, for now at the expense of Gustav Forsling, who was informed that he was hurt. The Hawks have been shopping Rutta and Manning to everyone to try and clear up the logjam, and those phone conversations must be comedy of the highest order…Crow was a little better against Vegas, but he gave up at least two goals he can’t and his rebound-control still remains iffy…Collition apparently is going with the “pairs” system in his lines, in that Saad-Toews, Kane-Anisimov, and Top Cat-Strome will always be together and they’ll make up the rest.

 

Game #31 Preview Suite

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I know that’s going to make a few laugh. I won’t stop you.

Jeremey Colliton has now gotten as many games as Joel Quenneville did this season. They each were behind the bench for 15. Obviously, at the top the records are pretty clear reading. Q went 6-6-3, whereas Colliton is at 3-10-2. Q had three regulation wins, Colliton two. It doesn’t make for a pretty sight.

Before we dig deeper, it was thought before that Colliton faced the far tougher schedule. And that will be true when this month is over and the Hawks wade through the Jets twice more, the Avs twice, the Preds, the Sharks,  and Stars (and you thought it couldn’t get worse!). The numbers don’t particularly bare that out.

The points-percentage of the teams the Hawks faced with Q behind the bench was .546. With Colliton it’s .561. For reference’s sake, the former mark would see a team collect 89 points over a full season, the latter 92 points. So just about equal, with a shade harder for Colliton.

But that isn’t the whole story. Q got to see the Ducks when they were awful, and Colliton when they were playing much better, but Q also got the Blues three times which would drag the points-total average down as well. Make of all of it what you will. Those marks will probably look different at the end of the season when teams like the Rangers  and Coyotes settle in more where they should be. Right now, it seems like things are neutral in that sense.

Anyway, let’s go into the metrics.

The Hawks had a 51.5 CF% under Quenneville. That’s dipped to 50.0 even with Colliton. Their scoring-chance share has gone from 49.1 to start the year to 48.2 now. If you can believe it, their high-danger scoring chance percentage has actually improved, from 43.6% under Q to 46.3% now (neither being an acceptable number).

What Colliton really hasn’t gotten is a save, anywhere. The even-strength save-percentage under him is .908, where it was .914 for Quenneville. Now you may say that the save-percentage would of course go down because the Hawks are giving up so many more chances under their new, ever-so-handsome coach. Is that so?

They’re actually giving up slightly less attempts per game at evens now, 57.1 vs. 58.8 before. They’re giving up one more shot per 60 at evens, from 32.4 to 33.3 now. Surprisingly, they’re giving up noticeably less scoring chances per 60, from 31.1 to 27.4 under C. And they’re giving up less high-danger chances per 60, from 13.8 per 60 to 11.7.

Now, a drop from .914 to .908 at even-strength may not sound like much, and it isn’t really, it’s about three more goals. It’s just where those goals go. If they got the Hawks to overtime in one-goal games, Colliton’s record might read 3-7-5, or if overtimes went their way a couple times, being as random as it is, it could be something like 5-6-4. Or maybe they all come when the Hawks are getting blown out anyway and it doesn’t matter. We can say, either way, that Colliton’s ride while bumpy has been also unlucky (last night being a perfect example).

On the other end of the ice, the Hawks have seen a noticeable reduction in their attempts for per 60 and their shots for per 60, while their scoring chances for and high-danger chances for have remained about steady. So while the team’s shooting-percentage has remained around 7.5% for both coaches, there’s less shots for them under Colliton to cash in on. Again, the difference in shots means the Hawks have missed out on a goal and a touch more, but not enough to wet oneself over.

As silly as it sounds, because they are bad defensively either way, the Hawks have actually slightly improved in their own end under Colliton, but still have a long way to go. They haven’t gotten a save, and their offense is going the wrong way. That could be to the league just closing up a little as a whole. It could be DeBrincat going cold, though some of that is usage. It could be the constant line-shuffling. It could be all of it.

None of it is pretty.