Everything Else

The playoffs may be a distant memory, but that’s no reason not to peer into the smoldering remains of the dumpster fire that is this lineup. We’ve only got one more week after this! Shall we?

The Dizzying Highs

Alex DeBrincat. After a brief slump and enduring inexplicable line nonsense from Beto O’Colliton (those two issues are seemingly not unrelated), Top Cat bounced back with a strong week. His goal Saturday against the Kings was one of those where it looked too easy, and in the win over the Sharks he scored twice, including on a 5-on-3. He and Dylan Strome have maintained their chemistry, when their coach deigns to play them together, but even on the third line against the Kings he managed a goal and a 52 CF%. He’s now tied with Patrick Kane for leading the team in goals. We’ve basically come to expect this performance of him at this point, but as Pullega said the other night, one of the few bright spots is that DeBrincat is someone to build around going forward, and this week was a reminder.

The Terrifying Lows

Brendan Perlini. I guess it’s a little unfair to throw him into the Terrifying Lows, and maybe it’s unfair of Colliton to demote him so quickly and angrily, but there’s no denying that Perlini’s recent hot streak may have been just that—a streak. He basically exploded in early March in shots, scoring chances, and of course goals, but starting last weekend he reverted much closer to his baseline (1, 2, 4, 0 SOG since the Colorado home-and-home). His possession numbers have tanked as well, and following a dumbass turnover and overall shitty performance against the Sharks, he got benched late in that game and then basically sent to the corner with a dunce cap to think about what he did, both for the Kings game and against the Jets. Is Perlini really the biggest issue on this team? Not even close. But a bad week is a bad week.

The Seabrook-Forsling Pairing. If there is one silver lining to the impending end of the season, it is that we will not have to watch these two clowns skate together for at least a few months. Hopefully we’ll never have to see it again, but I remain pessimistic. Brent Seabrook was underwater in possession for basically an entire week. He’s taken five penalties in the last four games, including one that led to the Coyotes’ only (and game-winning) goal. Forsling hasn’t been any better—sure, he hasn’t taken as many ridiculously bad penalties in these last few but he’s been a turnover machine and is still generally offensive to the eyes when watching him. Any blabbering about Jokiharju or any of the other baby defensemen not being ready rings pretty damn hollow watching these two.

The Creamy Middles

Brandon Saad. Saad hasn’t scored in a while but he did log two assists against the Sharks, and maybe more importantly he’s just been playing reliably well. His possession numbers have been outstanding and he even came close to setting up Dylan Sikura for what is now the most impossible goal in hockey, Sikura’s first. He’s been a force for good in these dark times, whether on the top line or not.

Corey Crawford. Maybe he hasn’t been completely lights out lately, but when you’re getting hosed by your teammates and still manage to keep them in the game, that says something. For example, none of the goals against the Kings could really be pinned on Crawford. Wagner and Amadio both ran past defensemen who were 1) slow and 2) totally out of position, while the winning goal was an OT power play goal thanks to a terrifically stupid penalty by Jonathan Toews. Toews then continued the stupidity against the Jets with a trip on Mark Scheifele who got a penalty shot as a result. And Crawford stopped it. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been better than the numbers may say. And he deserves much better than what he’s getting to work with.

 

Everything Else

John mentioned it in his recap last night, and if you listened to the podcast we did a fairly long segment on how we thought Jeremy Colliton fucked up the lines over the stretch of doom that erased the Hawks playoff hopes. It’s always a little silly to just look at a segment of games, because anything can happen for a week or two. And different opponents provide different challenges. In this stretch, for instance, the Coyotes and Canucks trapped the Hawks hard, so it would be difficult for anyone to produce a large amount of shots and chances against that. Contrast that with the high-flying Sharks and the utterly confused Martin Jones, and you have a very different game. Still, in this section of the schedule the Hawks have played the Avs and Flyers as well, who are at best middling defensive teams.

So what I wanted to do was illustrate the changes in lines over the end of the last winning streak, the slog of dumbassery that was the Hawks after that, and then last night in San Jose and the effects. I have to apologize at the top, as I haven’t been able to find a way to paste the data right in here without it looking like garbage or spilling over the entire page. so it’s going to have to be a link. If anyone has a suggestion on how to better do this, feel free to email me or hit me up on Twitter and I’ll come and make the changes. One last caveat, this also includes the win in Montreal where the Hawks got the win but we’re pretty much pummeled. So this goes from Toronto to last night in San Jose:

Games Lines Study

So you’ll notice that first game in Toronto, the Hawks had two lines that produced 10 shots on goal or more at evens, one line that got over 10 scoring chances and a further two that got over six. Again, it’s the Leafs who play very fast and open and though they eventually brought the world down around the Hawks’ ears, they will give you chances. The next game in Montreal the Hawks only had one line get anywhere close, which was the top of Sikura-Toews-Saad. But still, it had over 10 scoring chances which is something of a benchmark as you’ll see.

The next game is where Beto O’Colliton got cute, and you’ll see that no line produced even five scoring chances. Again, the Canucks set out to do this and keep things tight, but to have everyone’s production cut in half from the previous is a little jarring. And that trend continues…

Against the Flyers, no line cracked 10 scoring chances or shots or anywhere close. Same story in Denver, and the Avs are not setting out to make the game this way. Only in the return at the United Center did the top line of Top Cat-Toews-Kane crack those numbers, and after that there was no line to even create three scoring chances. We have a return to the flaccid against Arizona, where the Hawks essentially did nothing. To repeat, this was Arizona’s plan and the Hawks don’t have the talent to break through, but you can see the discrepancy.

To last night, the Hawks had a return of one line managing more than 10 scoring chances, another one with almost five, and neither of them had Patrick Kane on them. Things got a little goofy with Perlini’s benching, so it might have worked out differently.

Still, I’m all for the Hawks getting 15+ chances from two lines that don’t have Kane on them, because he’s going to find a way to produce even with limited chances and energy levels.

We’ll see how the Hawks finish the season, with what lines and with what interest level from their opponents. Let’s circle back at the end. This isn’t definitive, but you can see some trend lines.

-There was another tidbit on The Athletic today by Craig Custance about the introduction of player tracking. He had a quote from Stan Bowman, which pretty much sums up the Hawks right now:

“I want to see what it is first,” said Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman. “I’m not anticipating hiring a bunch of people. I think you’ve got to figure it out. It’ll be a process of learning – ‘How is this going to help us? What am I going to do with it?’ Until it comes out, I think for me, it’s premature to be jumping in.”

Now, earlier in the piece Custance mentions that the Leafs, Rangers. Lightning, Hurricanes, and Devils have already or are in the process of hiring new staff just to deal with this. They won’t be alone.

Quite simply, if you’re taking a “wait-and-see” approach, you’re already behind. Secondly, what would be the harm, other than a few yearly salaries that probably pale in comparison to the cost of the shiny new scoreboard the Hawks are so eager to boast about, of hiring people now to be ready for this? Essentially, on one day you’ll get Bowman and the Hawks paying lip-service to them using metrics and new analytics, and then you get shit like this where they’re pretty much admitting they don’t care and never will.

Especially as this kind of thing is going to take years to amass enough data to figure out what to do with it. If you sit out a year or two, that’s probably more years you’re behind. Why wouldn’t you get started? Player tracking is already making serious inroads in the NBA and European soccer, as the article notes. It’s coming to the NHL, so why would you be so dismissive?

Don’t worry, in three years or so when this is an accepted method, Stan Bowman (who will still be in the job) will come out and say the Hawks have their own system and are on the forefront of it. It’s their way.

 

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

The ghost of the Blackhawks playoff run came out to haunt tonight, but sort of like Casper: kind of fun, kind of annoying. Against a cold Sharks team that looked sloppy and disinterested throughout, the Hawks managed to squeeze out whatever ounce of hope is left in this toothpaste-for-dessert season, despite their own sloppiness in the ass end of the ice. Let’s clean it up and grasp for meaning.

– The most notable thing about this game has to be Alex DeBrincat scoring his 40th goal. His 39th was a relief to watch, as DeBrincat got in close on the 5-on-3 to stuff home two shots off a Toews rebound–pass. With Kane doing some nifty stickhandling at the far dot, Toews managed to get position in front of the net for a redirect. Martin Jone5 managed to stuff it, but Toews recovered and shoveled a pass to DeBrincat, who buried his second try. For a guy who was just missing on shots or just flubbing passes over the last three or four, you could feel the pressure come off.

Cat’s second goal of the night, his 40th, was more stereotypical of our favorite 5’7” behemoth. After Kahun showed off some good puck retrieval near the corner boards and shoved a nice pass to Strome behind the net, DeBrincat broke wide open through the slot. Strome set him up from behind the goal line for an easy one-timer. If nothing else comes from this year, we can take solace in knowing that Alex DeBrincat is without a doubt something to build around.

Brandon Saad brought possession dominance tonight. In the first, he flashed the skill and power that had us teasing him as the second coming of Marian Hossa. He pickpocketed Brent Burns early in the first to set up a dangerous backhander for himself that he airmailed. He delivered a perfect setup pass on Connor Murphy’s goal, following an impressive cross-ice pass from Anisimov. He redirected Gustafsson’s point shot enough to create a rebound that Toews stuffed home. He had a breakaway shot attempt stopped by a good backcheck from unrepentant douchebag Evander Kane. He posted a 100 CF% (as did Dylan Sikura).

In the second, while driving the slot, he slid a pass to Toews for a good wrister that Jones blocked, and which then nearly turned into a stuff-shot goal for Sikura.

In the third, he set up the Toews–Sikura 2-on-1 that had everyone’s shitter puckered in anticipation for Sikura’s first goal. Sikura probably waited a second too long to shoot it, but everything about it otherwise was a result of Saad’s strong breakout pass.

On the game, Saad led all Hawks with a 58+ CF% (29.08 CF% Rel) and two assists. And that’s about as perfect a representation of what Brandon Saad is. He’s an outstanding rhythm guitarist who shows flashes of superstardom. He’s a quieter contributor than most of us want him to be (I screamed about him scoring 90 points this year because I’m a fool for what I want him to be), but there’s little doubt that he’s an important contributor.

Over the last 12 games, he’s had a negative CF% Rel just once (03/09 against Dallas). On a team whose defense is a filled condom that slips out of your hands before you can tie it off and throw it in the fucking trash where it belongs, dominant possession numbers ought to be treated as a premium. We’ll always wish he were more of a 65–70-point guy than the 55 tops he is, but with everything else he does well, you can live with it, especially with the firepower the Hawks still tease when the lines are constructed well.

Jeremy Colliton obviously listens to Live From the Five Hole. After we spent 40 minutes bitching and moaning about how the lines, especially the nuclear option, just had to go for that retro 50s charm, it was no more tonight, and the Hawks manic’d themselves into a lead not even their putrid defense could blow.

– Although he gave up four goals, you have to consider this a good outing for Crawford. The Radil goal is one he’d like to have back, but each of the rest was the result of bad defensive positioning. Seabrook floating between Hertl and Nyquist with Crawford protecting against Hertl, giving Hertl an open passing lane. Duncan Keith watching Joe Thornton dribble like Prince against Charlie Murphy. Slater Koekkoek existing. Despite one near headsmack on the cross bar and taking a hard wrister in the mush, Crawford still managed to stuff 19–21 at even strength.

– Playing Brent Seabrook at this point is active sabotage. He was simply terrible all night, taking three penalties and posting a pathetic 26+ CF%. The same goes for Gustav Forsling, who was nearly as bad both statistically and by the eye test. The only redeeming thing about these two is that Seabrook has three rings, and those are nice memories. Slap Mr. Leader in a suit, buy him out, and let him coach. Henri Jokiharju should be here right now if this is a pairing that’s trotted out there in the midst of a “playoff run.”

– There’s not much to expect out of Slater “Couldn’t Beat Out Dan Girardi” Koekkoek. But what he did on Meier’s game-tying goal was beyond the pale. With Murphy properly covering on the near boards, Koekkoek was responsible for Meier, who was creeping through the neutral zone. Instead, he rushed toward the near boards inexplicably. This left Meier wide open for a Couture cross-ice pass and an easy goal. It was one of the worst defensive executions I’ve seen all year. On a team that at some time employed Brandon Manning, Jan Rutta, Gustav Forsling, and Brent Seabrook. That’s something.

– Connor Murphy had a nice game. The fancy stats are piss, but he had six blocks and a goal. He took a lousy closing-the-hand penalty too, but other than that, he didn’t lose his ass like so many other Hawks D-men tonight. If for nothing else, I’d love to see the Hawks get a legit blue liner or two just to see whether Murphy is actually as good as I hope he is or whether he’s more of an oasis in this defensive desert.

– Perlini found his ass stapled to the bench after he kicked the puck to center ice while on the wall, causing a horrid and unexplainable turnover. He had his ass punched in possession throughout the game, so it probably wasn’t a bad call by Colliton. Though I’d rather see him flex nuts on Seabrook or Forsling or Koekkoek first, he’s got more depth in his forward lines to do something like that. So fine.

The Sharks had lost six straight coming into this, but it’s still fun to watch the Hawks take advantage of a good team off its game. It’s disappointing that it took Colliton until after the Hawks’s playoff chances realistically ended to construct the lines in ways that have proven to work very well. But if the Hawks came back next year with minor changes to the forward lines (i.e., no Kunitz), a revamped blue line minus Seabrook and Forsling, and a healthy Crawford, they can be a playoff team next year.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, I’d have something to stop the spins.

Booze du Jour: Miller High Life

Line of the Night: “Where were we last time?” –Steve Konroyd, mirroring everyone else’s thoughts on the Arizona game in the pregame.

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

That’ll about do it for any playoff hopes the Hawks had. In another BIG GAME, the Hawks let out the biggest and densest of farts, failing to scratch against a team straight ahead of them in the standings and more than happy to play a wet blanket trap. Now too bad for the playoffs and too good for a top draft pick (probably), the Hawks get to end the year against a running buzz saw of teams entrenched in the playoffs and the Kings. What a fucking treat.

– Let’s start positive. Corey Crawford looked outstanding yet again. At the beginning of the broadcast, Foley mentioned that Crow was pitching a .940 SV% through the last nine games. In his last five, including tonight, Crow tossed a .924 SV% and managed to get saddled with a 1–3–1 record. He had another stellar game ruined by a bad penalty and his team’s complete Beavis when it mattered most.

Still, it’s always going to be comforting to watch Crawford dominate like he did tonight, especially when his team is giving up 12 high-danger chances for throughout the game, including seven in the third. Crow looks like the Crow of old, and that’s at least a small respite from this skidmark of a season.

– Another thing Foley and Konroyd spent far too much time doing early in the broadcast was pushing the “Keith has really grown” narrative. Konroyd’s Keith fluffing was especially egregious early in the first, during which he waxed poetic about how Keith had really evolved under Colliton’s man zone system as shown by his +20 plus-minus rating or some such shit. Anyone with standard definition television can see that Keith has gone kicking and screaming like Ned Flanders into this fucking asylum of a system, and no meaningless plus-minus or OT goal in a game they needed in regulation is going to change that. Having Keith take the lazy tripping penalty on Crouse late in the third was just the icing on the cake.

I won’t ever hate Duncan Keith, but some of the pissbaby penalties and plays are starting to wear thin.

– It’s good that the next six games don’t matter, because Patrick Kane is completely out of gas. Tonight saw him displaying flat passing and skating and more stripped turnovers than I can remember in a while. And yet, Colliton kept double shifting him, because that’s apparently his counter-clockwise fucking swirl. Except when Kane can’t keep up with the plays he can normally make, the swirl looks more like a knuckle.

– It’s a bit concerning that in the last five games—five games that in theory mattered—the Hawks managed to score just seven goals, and that was with the “nuclear option” flying out there regularly. That’s something that’s on Colliton. He boxed his team in by tossing out one line with all the scoring threats and no one to retrieve the puck, and then Nathan For You’d the rest of the lineup.

It wasn’t until the third of this game that he tried throwing Sikura up with DeBrincat and Toews, leaving a tired Kane to try to manufacture everything else by himself. It’s frustrating when you’ve got teams directly above you in the standings simply trapping and stuffing the middle because they know the top line won’t be able to retrieve the puck off a perimeter shot. It’s especially frustrating when your third line dominates in the oZ but doesn’t have a true scorer to finish the job. Colliton either couldn’t or wouldn’t make the adjustment. I’m not sure which would be worse.

David Kampf is a fine player. Maybe even good. But if you needed to be reminded about why he’s not ever going to be a Top 6 guy, tonight was the night. His line was the only forward line underwater in possession, and they were way, way under. He doesn’t complement Perlini or Strome well at all, and that Colliton thought that the way to fix that line was to put a defensive stalwart with very little offensive upside in the middle of it doesn’t inspire confidence.

– Forsling–Seabrook continues to insult. Along with the Kampf line, they were buried in possession (26+ and 30+ CF%, respectively). Seabrook’s desperation tripping penalty led to the Coyotes’s only goal, and Forsling had no fewer than four unforced turnovers, at least three of which came in the defensive zone on long pass attempts. It’s a never-ending nightmare whenever these two are on the ice. Given how bad they are, everyone should be fired if Boqvist and Harju aren’t up and playing with this team next year. There’s simply no way those two can be any worse than Forsling–Seabrook.

– On the Yotes’s goal, Connor Murphy went out too far to cover Keller, who easily slipped a pass by him and to the waiting stick of humongous puddle of wet dogshit Nick Cousins. If Murphy sags a bit, it closes that lane off and makes that pass more difficult at least. It didn’t help that Kruger couldn’t clear the ice immediately prior, but Murphy’s positioning was the main culprit.

Brendan Perlini’s got a hell of a release. If he can ever get it under control, he could be fun. I do not like how many ifs I have to attach to him at all.

Alex DeBrincat has had a rough go of it over the past few games. Now that the Hawks are dead, Colliton would be wise to slot him with Perlini and Strome again and try to get that line back on track.

Unless you think the Hawks can beat the Sharks, Kings, Jets, Blues, Stars, and Preds all in a row and in regulation, then tonight’s loss was the final nail in the coffin. The best they can do now is try to get the Perlini–Strome–DeBrincat line back on track, get Sikura his first goal, and maybe give Garbage Dick some time off.

We’re at the funeral, so we’ll sing the requiem.

Booze du Jour: Two Hearted

Line of the Night: “FUCK” –Corey Crawford

Everything Else

It seems awfully simple to say the Hawks have gone as their power play has gone, but that’s basically the drill. It has dried up when it absolutely couldn’t of late, with a marker against Vancouver and last night’s Anisimov deflection the only things to show for the past 11 games. In those 11 game the Hawks are 6-4-1, which isn’t bad. But obviously a couple more power play goals in this stretch and the Hawks probably claim some points they needed to have and might even be in a playoff spot.

You can divide the power play’s season into three segments: From the opening of the season to December 17th, which covers both Quenneville’s short term and Colliton’s start. Then from December 18th to March 1st, when it was absolutely nuclear. And then the last 11 games which go from March 2nd until now, when it’s been cold, cold, cold.

I wanted to check on it metrically, as is my way. So I’m going to take you along with me:

1st Phase: CF/60 – 86.5  SF/60 – 47.5   SCF/60 – 43.1   HDCF/60 – 18.8   SH% – 8.5

2nd Phase (Nuclear): CF/60 – 104.2   SF/60 – 58.0   SCF/60 – 52.5  HDCF/60 – 16.4  SH% – 23.1

3rd Phase (I’m turning into Lovie Smith now): CF/60 – 99.9   SF/60 – 50.6   SCF/60 – 45.5  HDCF/60 – 13.9  SH% – 5.0

So a couple things to glean here. One is that a huge part of the power play’s success was luck. While there was a surge in attempts, shots, and chances in the middle phase where the Hawks couldn’t stop scoring, they also shot nearly three times as well as they did to start the season and almost five times as well as they are now. For a frame of reference, the median SH% on the power play this year is 13.5%, and the Lightning lead the league at 22% for the season. The Hawks were better than that for six weeks, which gives you some idea of the unsustainable nature of it.

Another funny quirk of this is that the Hawks were actually averaging less high-danger chances when they power play went supernova than they did in the first part of the season. What changed is that they doubled their shooting-percentage on just scoring-chances, to almost 30%. Now, when you have Patrick Kane at full bore and Top Cat on the other side, you should be shooting a higher percentage than most. And the Hawks did, just not at a rate anyone was going to keep up.

Still, in the last 11 games, the Hawks have seen a drop in attempts, shots, and chances. And that can’t be totally explained metrically.

One thing we’ve seen of late is that teams are completely aware of the Hawks drop-pass entry, and the Hawks haven’t shown a willingness to try anything else. Opponents are leaving one forward behind the initial puck-carrier, cutting off that drop pass. Because one major change the Hawks made that sparked the power play was actually having two players trailing the initial puck-carrier, when that’s cut off the Hawks are looking at a 3-on-3 at the opposing blue line. And they don’t seem willing to take that on, even though there should be plenty of room. It doesn’t help that the two forwards ahead of the play are just standing and waiting as they’re expecting that drop pass.

So what you’re getting is the initial puck-carrier, sometimes Gustafsson and sometimes Toews for the most part, pulling up somewhere between the red line and blue line, and literally stopping or curling toward the boards or both and waiting for that penalty killer behind them to “clear.” Now everyone’s stopped, and they’re still trying that pass except Kane or DeBrincat has four across the line to stare at with no one on his team moving forward. So entries have become a problem again.

In the zone, the movement has stopped. Some of that might be due to Kane’s overall fatigue, but that doesn’t explain it all. When the power play was humming, Kane was getting the puck while already moving and committing people. He’s standing still and Carmello’ing/Harden’ing (phrasing?) at the circle. Top Cat is waiting on the other side for passes that have become the first priority to be cut off by penalty kills. Toews isn’t bouncing between the goal line and the high slot as much, and when Kane’s doing his isolation offense on the right circle it doesn’t really matter if Toews is in the high slot because he’s basically facing the wrong way. His only option from there is basically to bump it back to Kane, unless he has time to turn to face the center of the ice. Which he rarely does.

It wouldn’t hurt to try and run things occasionally through DeBrincat on the other side, which makes Toews a threat for a one-timer from the high slot and Gustafsson from the blue line and a cross-seam pass to Kane as well. Kane’s not really the best at one-timing shots, but he can make a fist of it enough to have teams account for it. If it moves guys, then the Hawks can get their movement and creativity back.

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

For a must-win game with the season on the line, the Hawks managed an “Is it in yet?” effort. Despite dominating possession (62%+) and the shot share (42 vs. 20), they only managed six high-danger chances for against the Avs’s five. With another empty-calorie win, they’ll keep the embers of this “playoff run” just hot enough to justify watching on Tuesday, but if you were looking for a definitive reason to believe that this team can squeak into the playoffs, tonight wasn’t it.  Let’s rake this muck.

– Colliton’s BIG IDEA over the past two games has been to test his nuclear option of Cat–Cap’n–Kane. It’s done everything it was supposed to do except score goals. They were ruthless in possession, pushing the pace at a 65% pace throughout the entire game. Granted, it was against a team that was happy to collapse on the only line that has even a whiff of a real scoring threat, knowing that if they could shut down that line, they’d probably get the one point they needed to manufacture a more comfortable lead over the last wild card spot.

While this idea isn’t bad on its own, it’s obviously not worked over the past three or four games. When you’re loading up the top line with your only real shot creators, all your opponents have to do is shut that one line down. And it’s a lot easier to shut that line down when there’s no real puck retriever on the line. That’s what made Caggiula look as good as he did with Kane and Toews: He was willing and able to retrieve shots and rebounds that DeBrincat can’t and Kane won’t. Toews just isn’t that guy anymore, especially not this year, a year in which we’ve watched him rightfully shirk some of his defensive responsibilities to try to outscore the Hawks’s overall defensive woes.

It’s a tough spot that Colliton finds himself in, trying to turn canned clams into caviar. But it’s obvious that you can’t expect Toews to be the guy who goes and gets the puck on that line. Make it Saad, make it Kahun, or fuck, make it Kampf. The 12–19–88 line makes sense in theory, but it’s probably a bit too light in the ass to make a difference against teams willing to pack it in, like the Avs did tonight.

Corey Crawford continues to impress. And for once, he wasn’t having his innards pulled out of his ass with a pair of hot pincers doing it, facing a mere 20 shots on the game and tossing a 15-15 at even strength. At 34, he still looks like he’s got a few more years in him as long as he can stay out of the dark room.

– Fitting that Duncan Keith would score the game winner in overtime in a game the Hawks absolutely needed in regulation, given how often he’s let us down in bigger spots this year. There’s a nostalgia in watching Keith go coast to coast and flex a shot through the five hole, but it’s tapered by the fact that the extra point will likely be meaningless and that he did it in the farcical urinal race that is 3-on-3 OT.

– Strome and Perlini look lost without DeBrincat. Dominik Kahun is a nice complementary player, but Perlini isn’t consistent enough a scorer to put Kahun there as the puck retriever. Looks like Colliton realized that too, as Kahun found himself stapled to the bench late. There’s still a lot to hope for from Perlini’s game, but he just doesn’t have the finish or vision to carry a line on his own, at least not yet. If Colliton isn’t going to bump Saad up to the first line, he can probably get away with putting Kahun with Daydream Nation and slotting DeBrincat down to the second line again.

– The ASS line of Saad–Anisimov–Sikura was outstanding in possession, and they did so playing mostly against the MacKinnon line. This could be a good shutdown line in theory, but it’s hard to buy into Anisimov as a shutdown guy. There’s a lot to like with Saad and Sikura, and you can almost see Sikura playing the role of Saad Lite as he gets more comfortable in the NHL. I’m not sure what this line is supposed to do, but they possessed the puck a lot, so that’s cool.

Jonathan Toews probably could have had a hat trick tonight had Philipp Grubauer not turned into Dominik fucking Hasek. So it goes.

– While Gustav Forsling continues to shit his diaper upward with unforced turnovers and a complete lack of vision, our own Henri “Frank Grimes” Jokiharju has to be looking for the nearest stack of live wires to hug. In a year in which Brandon Fucking Manning played actual minutes for the Blackhawks, Forsling might still come out as the worst D-man the Hawks have dressed. He’s a cold sore on top of a split lip, and his only talent is a booming shot that requires a windup that makes Pedro Baez impatient.

Tonight is a short stay of execution, nothing more. The Hawks must win out in regulation going forward, because every game is a BIG GAME now. Given that they have not won a single BIG GAME in regulation this year, it’s hard to like the odds.

That’s why we get high.

Booze du Jour: High Life and Coricidin

Line of the Night: You better believe this was a Mute Lounge game.

Everything Else

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 30-30-9   42-22-5

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN

THE ABYSS: Pension Plan Puppets 

During the Hawks first “streak,” it was obvious they were benefitting from a softening of the schedule. Even when they played barely real teams, they were simply outclassed. We don’t know if this is a new “streak” yet, three in a row hardly constitutes that, but whatever it is is unlikely to continue tonight. The Hawks are playing one of the few REAL-ASS teams in the league, and we know how that’s gone. And they’re facing one that’s probably going to have an edge/snarl to it.

The Leafs had something of a “test” on Monday, and they got absolutely horsed by the Lightning at home, 6-2. If they had won that game or even been close, you might be hopeful of catching them with their focus elsewhere. Probably no such luck tonight. Maybe if the Bruins had beaten the Jackets last night and moved six points ahead of the Leafs, they would have decided there’s nothing left to play for and would have spent the last 13 games looking at their watch. But with a four-point gap and a game in hand, the Leafs can reasonably think that home-ice is still on the table and worth chasing (which is debatable). So the combination of frustration and motivation should have the Leafs antennae up, which is hardly good news.

There’s also the small matter of Morgan Rielly, which shouldn’t matter but will in the sense that he will get a standing ovation from the frothing, rich aristocracy that fills the Whatever It’s Fucking Called Now Center, because…he might…not have…used a homophobic slur? They won’t know why, they’ll just clap like the trained seals all fans become in situations like this. Either way, he and the Leafs will be happy to have a game to play to distract from whatever the last two days were. All of this does not add up to a pleasant night for the Hawks.

And even without all that, this is a team so far beyond the Hawks you wouldn’t want to drive it. In games against the league’s penthouse residents, the Hawks have generally been embarrassed. The Lightning have dribbled their head like a basketball twice. So have the Sharks. The Jets took them seriously for like a combined 12 minutes and got three wins out of it. They were with the Bruins in South Bend when the Bs were in their worst stretch, and then nowhere close in Boston. They’re 0-3 against the Flames. It’s not an enviable record.

And though they may finish third in their division. and though their media and fans refuse to shut up about anything, this is still an unholy offensive force. John Tavares has 76 points, and he’s the second center. There are three lines here better than the Hawks can muster with one, and when they get rolling no one can live with it (except Tampa, apparently). The Hawks were able to put up six on this team in the home opener because they got a look at Garret Sparks. They’ll find no such refuge here. The Leafs will want a recovery from Monday, which means Andersen, who’s been one of the better goalies in the league.

If the Leafs have a weakness it’s a defense that still is short, even with Jake Muzzin, but you have to get the puck first which is the real trick. Sure, if the Hawks can get DeBrincat or Kane or Saad or Toews bearing down on Hainsey or Zaitsev or whoever they might find some joy, but getting to those spots takes more than a smile. It’s also a beat-up blue line as both Gardiner and Dermott are out.

For the Hawks, shouldn’t be too many changes. Crawford will start, and the lines should look the same (go pound, John Hayden). The expectations for this one should be nil. If the Hawks can get a win in Montreal against a Canadiens team fighting it, this trip will be a success. After that, it’s the Canucks, Flyers, and a home-and-home with the Avs. Basically it would be set for the Hawks to perform one last death rattle if they get out of Canada alive.

And if not, they are who we through they were anyway.

 

Game #70 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Evolved Hockey

De-Fense! De-Fense!

Anything that happens with this Hawks team has to be qualified in some way. The Stars are a relatively easy to team to smother if you’re locked in. They have one line, and then one guy in Jamie Benn who’s wasting his time with Jason Dickinson and Blake Comeau. So if you can keep Seguin and Radulov from producing more than one goal, you have a good chance to look as the Hawks did tonight. They didn’t do that a couple Sundays ago, and there’s your difference. The Stars just don’t have a lot of inspiration through the lineup.

Still, that’s as good a road game as the Hawks have played in…all season? Maybe the game in Pittsburgh, which was the first week of January? Either way, it’s been an awful long time since the Hawks were able to hold a team at arm’s length for 60 minutes. And they did that tonight.

I don’t know if the Hawks can ever do it again. I don’t know that it would even benefit them, given the way they’re built sets up better for 5-4 games than 2-1. Still, if they can carry out this kind of defensive effort through the last portion of the season here, no matter where it lands them in the standings, we’ll have tangible proof that Jeremy Colliton is establishing something and just maybe there’s something to build off. But long way to go until that.

To the bluffs!

The Two Obs

-The Hawks put forth that defensive effort with Gustav Forsling in the lineup. Let’s all think about that for a second.

-I still don’t know how I feel about Patrick Kane leading the Hawks in total ice-time again. On the one hand he’s the main weapon and you might as well use it as much as you can. Still, you wonder if some of his shifts wouldn’t pack a little more punch if he was getting a few more off. It also keeps Sikura under 10 minutes, and as this season is actually about development, that seems a problem. Yes, his turnover led to Dallas’s only goal, but he looked spritely otherwise. Would like to see more of him with Toews and Saad.

-Dylan Strome with a 71% share tonight. Again, it helps when he gets to face whatever Jason Dickinson is all night, but seeing as how he’s spent most of the season getting brained possession-wise, let’s start here.

-It’s amazing how much better Corey Crawford looks when you’re only asking him to make 5-6 big saves per game instead of 96.

-If you’re allowing Chris Kunitz to get five shots off in a game, that’s probably cause for relegation.

-Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom were the only pairing that wasn’t in the black, but then they were the only ones starting a majority of time in their own zone. I still don’t know quite what to make of Murphy, who was excellent in his own zone most of the game, set up the second goal with a good defensive play, and yet you can’t keep playing on the back foot. I guess we won’t know until he has a partner who can do that more effectively than anyone here right now.

-The Hawks seemed to figure out that teams are stopping their drop pass on entries on the power play, and tonight started to fake it and then just get in the zone off the initial rush. The Stars were springing their two forwards out at Kane and DeBrincat when the Hawks first made that drop pass. Faking or ignoring it got them up against two defenders with odd-mans. They’ll have to keep doing this. They’ll get more chances than they did tonight.

Wraps up a pretty tidy effort. Let’s hope for more, prepare for not. Onwards…

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

THE BEST PART WAS WHEN THE BUILDINGS FELL DOWN. Until late in the third, this one had all the appeal of an open-air autopsy in Miami-Dade in July. But with both of these teams out of the running, there was always a chance this would turn into a shootout, and it did, literally and figuratively. In a game whose highlight was the Sharp–Burish Eagleman parody, it’s nice for the outcome not to be in vain. Unless you’re rooting for a tank, in which case, I can’t help you. To the bullets!

Brendan Perlini had himself a game tonight. Playing alongside DeBrincat and Strome will do that sometimes, but he really took advantage. In just under 11 minutes, he scratched a 58+ CF% and scored the game-tying goal. His 18.67 CF% Rel led all Hawks forwards on the night, and frankly, it wouldn’t have been upsetting to see him get a little bit more time tonight. He’s probably not much more than a 2019 version Kris Versteeg (1.0 or 2.0 is still TBD), but that can be fun sometimes. I liked that Colliton slotted him there tonight.

– Because we can’t have nice things, a nice performance from Perlini on the second line was balanced by John Hayden appearing on the first line because Colliton’s genious brain is a muscle that needs to be flexed, apparently. He might be a nice guy, and he’s got a degree from Yale—which will no doubt be helpful for when he commits securities fraud after he retires, or whatever it is rich prep boys do in their free time—but he’s not a hockey player for this generation. In just over six minutes, he had a 4 CF against an 11 CA, good for a team-worst 26.67 CF%. The next worst was Patrick Kane, but he also does things like score goals and create assists. Unless you can find someone who either actually commits to GRITHEARTFAAAAAAART or reads Ayn Rand unironically, it’s time to cut bait. He’s just not very good.

– If the Hawks had managed not to play jump rope with their own dicks and win this in regulation, this would have been the ARTEM ANISIMOV GAME. His first goal came on a breakaway (lol) off two excellent tic-tac-toe passes from Kane and Kahun, and the second was sheer power from our widest dicked forward. If he wants to keep Refrigerator Perrying his way into goals, that’d be fine.

– Murphy and Dahlstrom were nails tonight. They dominated the Eichel line to the tune of a 64+and 66+ CF%, respectively. Murphy almost contributed on the score sheet too, with a nice kick to the stick wrister off a Kunitz pass. Connor Murphy probably tops out as a 2A guy on a good team, but when given 1A matchups tonight, be performed admirably.

– Crow was a little urpy tonight. You’d think that he had that first goal caught in his glove, but his fumble, compounded with Seabrook’s Cubist positioning and the delayed penalty, gave Vladimir Fucking Sobotka free rein near the crease. He also totally lost his net on the shorthanded goal unnecessarily. Still, he managed to keep the Hawks within shouting distance, even if that meant taking a hard Sheary wrister right off the mush late in the first. Poor guy can’t catch a break. These games don’t matter much, but seeing how Crow finishes out the year is something to watch. He’s obviously shaking off some rust, but if he can finish strong, it’ll be something to hang onto going into the offseason.

– When Erik Gustafsson is scoring, you can put up with his treasonous dereliction of duty in the defensive zone. When he’s not, it’s worse than watching your mother fuck your bully. He was putrid tonight at all times, falling asleep in coverage on Okposo’s goal being the most obvious. In a perfect world, you pair him with something that looks like a better version of Dahlstrom and let him bum slay, especially if he’s just not going to learn how to play defense. But if he’s not scoring, he’s not worth even the modest salary he’s making now. Something to watch going forward, now that the Hawks don’t have much to play for.

– With each passing day, buying out Seabrook’s contract looks like the only solution to that problem, which is a fucking shame in the grand scheme. He was mostly responsible for Montour’s goal, as he wandered out to the near boards to cover Smith despite Montour and Pominville streaking through the middle of the zone. If he sags back, which is really all he can do anymore anyway, it’s at worst a 2-on-2, with Seabrook covering Montour and Keith covering Pominville, leaving Smith at the point and preventing Montour from taking all that space.

– The power play looked like complete shit. The last thing Coach Cool Youth Pastor needs is for the one thing that he can point to as making better taking a huge dump on him toward the end of the year. It’s only one game, but they looked terribly out of sorts.

– Top Cat had a couple of excellent chances that he just missed on. The most disappointing miss came off Kane’s rebound on the PP, which looked like a guarantee coming off his stick. Instead, the puck rung around the boards to Rodrigues, who blew away a half-assing Kane and led to Bogosian’s highlight reel goal. Shit happens.

Duncan Keith had a pretty good game. His goal was good, aggressive awareness. His possession numbers were a refurbished marital aid, which is concerning because he didn’t match up with the Eichel line too much. But he wasn’t a complete tire fire. Baby steps.

– Garbage Dick hopped over Larmer for fourth in Hawks history with 924 points on his assist on Keith’s goal. Creep can roll.

If you’re a Brendan Perlini or Artem Anisimov fan, you had a really fun time tonight. And for as stupid as 3-on-3 OT and the shootout are, they’re mindless fun. Which is exactly the kind of fun we need with this team.

Onward . . .

Booze du Jour: High Life and Maker’s 46

Line of the Night: Each team has had the lead in the game! Who’s gonna win it? –Foley

Everything Else

Well, it’s been quite a week, hasn’t it? After shitting the bed the moment there seemed to be a chance of making the playoffs, the Hawks followed that up with barely eking out a win against the putrid Ducks, having a full-body dry heave against the even-more-putrid Kings, and then getting swatted aside like an annoying bug by the legitimately good Sharks. Let’s attempt to find any rays of hope, or at least let’s hurl obscenities at the worst offenders. Shall we?

The Dizzying Highs

Dylan Strome: There have been few bright spots this year but the growth of Dylan Strome into a true 2C is one of them. And with the way things are going with Jonathan Toews‘ defensive game, he may be our 1C before too long. This week Strome had a point per game and has four points in his last five. He scored last night in San Jose, giving the appearance of keeping the Hawks in the game. His awareness and patience during a long change in the second on Saturday led to Brendan Perlini‘s first goal, again giving a semblance of the Hawks having a chance in that game. Granted, being on a line with Alex DeBrincat certainly helps a guy, but Strome deserves credit—his shooting percentage is 18.9, second only to Top Cat’s. His possession at evens is a weak 45.6 CF%, so that’s an issue, but in this dark time that is the 2018-19 Blackhawks, right now this is the best we can do.

The Terrifying Lows

The whole damn defense. Where do I even begin? That’s a legit question—please help. OK here goes. Duncan Keith was terrible this week, even more than what we’ve come to see as the new normal. In addition to having clearly zero fucks left to give on the ice, he also managed to call out his coach off the ice and look like a whiny jerk. Which I don’t believe, or don’t want to believe that he is, but this isn’t helping. Seabrook has been his typical enchilada-filled self. Forsling and Koekkoek have been mostly lost, and aside from Erik Gustafsson scoring 48 points on the season (what??) there isn’t a silver lining to be found. OK, Connor Murphy has been decent but he’s been saddled with quadruple-A player Carl Dahlstrom or one of the other helpless fools, so he’s only able to do so much.

To wit, this team gave up 14 goals in three games, and nine of those goals were scored by two of the teams ostensibly even worse than the Hawks. Yes, goaltending is to blame here too but it wouldn’t get to that point if the defense wasn’t so awful. The only defensemen not underwater in possession are Slater Koekkoek (53.4 CF%, again, what??) and Gus (50.5 CF%). Every other member of the blue line is under 50. Oh wait, you know who’s leading the defense and the entire team in possession? Henri Jokiharju.

The Creamy Middles

Brendan Perlini. He scored two goals this weekend. This is the last we’ll ever speak of him.

Alex DeBrincat. His reliability and production, on the power play or otherwise, are better than just the middle, I know that. But that predictability is exactly why two goals against the Ducks and an assist last night are just middling for Top Cat, who again is one of the reasons to not light yourself on fire when watching this team.