Football

Inside the Matchups: Week 1

By Tony Martin 1395 0

Welcome to week one of Inside the Matchups: another themed piece to help us break down the upcoming Bears game, where we look in-depth at the numbers and what they tell us about what might happen on the field. Today, our focus will be on Green Bay’s wideouts and Chicago’s defensive backs, since the only thinkpieces about Aaron Rodgers I want to read in 2019 are written for this site specifically. Yes, he’s probably the best QB of all time, and yes I do take an ungodly amount of joy in the fact that despite his talents, he will retire with only one Super Bowl ring. With that said, let’s break down the matchups on the outside for tomorrow’s season kickoff game.

-The Philosophy: How do the Bears plan to cover the weapons of Aaron Rodgers? It’s still somewhat unclear. Vic Fangio’s old system had the Bears line up with 5 DBs on the field on 76% of all defensive snaps, a clip that was 6th highest in the league. However, the true statistical anomaly is that on 95% of plays, the Bears played their outside CBs on their own exclusive sides of the field, with nickelback Bryce Callahan playing on whatever side of the offense he needed to. This will change under Chuck Pagano. I’m wondering how much leeway Pagano will give to his outside CBs to play to their strengths, Kyle Fuller’s softer zone and Prince Amukamara’s bump and run. The new defensive coordinator may roll the defense out in the same way, but I don’t know how it will look. We know Chuck likes to send extra pressure, but does he even need to with a front seven like Chicago’s?

Also, it needs to be noted that famous red-assed doofus Mike McCarthy is gone, replaced with Matt LaFleur. Unlike McCarthy’s dull West-Coast system, LaFleur instilled a truly revolutionary offensive playbook in *checks notes* Tennessee? Ew. Is Rodgers going call runs up the gut 34 times a game? No, but it’s important to know that he has pretty much been the opposite of McCarthy when it comes to formations and run/pass tendencies. Expect a lot of quick screens, and a devotion to keep his QB happy by putting him in the pistol a stupidly large amount of the time.

–The Matchups:
-Davante Adams vs. Kyle Fuller: Kyle was a beast last year, not gonna lie to you. Davante Adams was also a dog out there, with over 110 catches, 1300 yards, 13 touchdowns, and a catch rate of 66%. Kyle Fuller can’t cover Adams one on one strongly enough to inspire confidence, but #23 gets the edge because hopefully the Bears get enough pressure with the front four that he can cheat up on short passes and put his faith in Eddie Jackson and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix behind him to keep Rodgers from airing it out deep.

-Geronimo Allison/Marquez Valdez-Scantling vs. Prince Amukamara: Call me crazy, but I’m going to also give the Bears an edge here too. The GB depth chart after Adams is solid if we’re talking fantasy football, but in real life, Allison and MVS are middling wideouts who just so happen to play alongside a true generational talent at QB. They will put up good numbers, but neither of them are game-breakers. I’m less afraid of Prince’s ability to thrive in Pagano’s system than I am Kyle Fuller, so I’m expecting Prince to make a solid break on a short out and pick off #12 on Thursday night.

-Whoever isn’t on the outside vs. Buster Skrine: Okay, I know I had four $9 beers at Wrigley and told everyone in the bleachers that Buster Skrine was making the Pro Bowl as he sang the seventh inning stretch. Now, months later I am $36 in the hole and much more sober and I don’t have that same confidence. Buster will get picked on, since he gave up 8.3 yards per adjusted completion last year in New York. I know he has a much better front seven in Chicago, but I think he gets targeted quite a bit on Thursday. I’m taking the Packers wideouts on this one.

-Bears Safeties vs. Jimmy Graham: Not even a competition. Eddie Jackson for fucking President.

Overall: Bet on Chicago. There are just as many new wrinkles in Chicago’s system as there are Green Bay’s, so it will be exciting to see how those new things play out. Clinton-Dix and Amos both have familiarity with each other’s former team, but there’s hopefully enough new stuff there that nobody is coming in with an advantage, except Khalil Mack who has the advantage of being Khalil fucking Mack.

Prediction: Rodgers will throw 2 touchdowns, one on a busted coverage, but he will also throw 2 picks and be sacked at least 3 times. Bears win 31-17. FTP.

Football

The Vault: Bears/Packers Classics

By Tony Martin 1394 0

Welcome to a new FFUD staple: The Vault. Here in The Vault, we talk about a game from the past between the Bears and this week’s opponent. Also, technically this isn’t a staple of FFUD yet since it got a lukewarm reception when I pitched it to the brass, so I gotta work super hard to promote this new idea since the Chicago sports blogosphere is about RESULTS and I need at least 200 shares on Twitter if I’m ever gonna marry into the Arkush family.

Today’s vault: Bears vs Packers, NFC Championship 1/23/2011

Final Score: Packers 21, Bears 14
Fun Fact: January 23rd, 2011 was the 89th anniversary of the first time Insulin was used. Coincidence?

The Game: We all remember this one, right? The collective dagger in the hearts of fans who, like me, were too young to remember the ’85 team and lived our formative years watching the likes of Steve Stenstrom, Shane Matthews, and Cade McNown lead this legendary franchise. We thought this was it, that this time it was real. Mike Martz was (only) kind of an asshole at this point, but the offense looked okay sometimes and the defense was as good as it was in ’05 so there was a chance for sure. Johnny Knox was still playing! God, I miss Johnny Knox.

So after the Bears easily beat Seattle, they got the opportunity to get into the Super Bowl by serving it up to Green Bay. How sweet it was, baby! I ordered roughly $45 in Little Caesar’s and was fine with what that meant for my digestive system. Little did I know the Bears would do to my heart what that greasy pizza would do to my digestive system. These two events happened concurrently.

To put it poetically: shit hit the fan. Aside from Matt Forte putting up dominant numbers in that boring mid 90s/early 2000s way (17 rushes for 70 yards, 10 catches for 90 yards, no touchdowns), everyone else sucked. Rodgers faced no pressure all game, and the crucial mistake he did make didn’t end up costing him, as he managed to tackle Brian Urlacher on his interception return that would’ve been the equalizer, instead leading to another three-and-out. Aside from getting juked by Tom Brady, that is the one play I bet Brian still thinks about between Restore billboard photo shoots.

Olin Kreutz got hurt and played the whole game, but the narrative was all about Jay getting hurt and not returning to the field. Honestly, I know how shitty this sounds but I still take Jay’s side. You gotta believe if he could have played he would’ve been out there, and its not like dusty old bones Todd Collins and future Hall of Famer Caleb Hanie did much better. Plus, the field itself has always been so terrible that there’s always colossal potential for re-injury. However, it wasn’t limited to the QB; the offense was a dumpster fire that day, asking quarterbacks to consistently take 7-step drops and get pummeled. BJ Raji picked off Caleb Hanie and it sucked. Sam Shields picked off Caleb Hanie and it sucked even more, and the sun set on the season with the Packers heading to the Super Bowl. Oof.

Why pick this heartbreaker to kick off the Bears 100 campaign? Simple: hope. Just like 24-year-old me gorging on awful pizza and crazy bread, 33-year-old me is gorging on frozen pizza and drinking flavored water with a strong sense of hope in the Bears. I’ve been so conditioned to expect the Bears to suck at worst, or be a middling team at best that I actually thought they could be champions when they got the smallest taste of playoff success. We haven’t watched a meaningful snap yet, but this season is going to be the most exciting one I can remember as a Bears fan. I’m feeling that same hope about this team that I did back then. I can’t even find it in me to be jaded, fuck it. I’m ready for you to hurt me again, Bears. I’m finally all-in, not expecting it to all go wrong. I’m going full Randy Quaid from the last half hour of the first Major League film.

2019 is gonna rule for the Bears, y’all. Let’s have some fun. FTP.

 

 

Football

Packers Spotlight: Aaron Rodgers May Not Be The Best Brother or Son, But That’s OK Because He’s The Greatest QB Of All TIme

By Brian Schmitz 2018 0

On Thursday night, the Bears will kick off one of the most anticipated seasons in team history. This game will not only determine who lands the first blow in the NFC North, it will also give us a fairly good idea if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are going to make any noise this year. Much like how the Bears defense will ultimately determine the team’s success, the Packers offense will do the same. Mike McCarthy’s high school offense is gone, but I’m not sold on his replacement. Matt LeFleur has called plays for a grand total of one NFL season; and the results were miserable as the Titans finished 26th last year in total offense. But if we are all being honest with each other, do we really believe that anyone other than Aaron Rodgers will be calling plays for the Packers this year? Rodgers has made it very clear that this is his organization moving forward. What the 2018 Titans didn’t have is something the Packers have had for 14 seasons and counting: the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. With a QBR of 103.1, there is not a single player in the history of the league with a higher rating. Not Tom Brady. Not Joe Montana. Not Dan Marino. Not Peyton Manning. Don’t believe me? Look at this:

                                 QBR    Comp. %    Pass YPG    Int %    TD %
Aaron Rogers       103.1   64.8            260.3          1.5        6.2
Tom Brady            97.6    64.0            262.1           1.8        5.5
Joe Montana        92.3    63.2             211.2           2.6        5.1
Dan Marino          86.4    59.4             253.6          3.0        5.0
Peyton Manning 96.5    65.3              270.5          2.7         5.7

As if being really, really, good isn’t enough, Rodgers is especially dangerous against the Bears. In 21 career games, the future Hall of Famer has lit up Chicago to the tune of:
• 17 Wins
• 5 Losses (Including 1 loss where Rodgers was knocked out in the 1st quarter)
• 45 Touchdowns
• 10 Interceptions
• 67% Completion Percentage
• 5,156 Passing Yards
• 105.9 Passer Rating

These are video game numbers that deserve not only your respect, but also your admiration. You are getting a chance to watch the greatest quarterback to ever play. Keep in mind that Rodgers put together a lion’s share of these numbers against guys like Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman, and Brown; who have all individually called A-Rodg the greatest QB they have ever played against. So please take some time off from motherfucking the guy and appreciate his greatness; even if a lot of the highlights came against your team and made you want to kick him in the dick.

While I don’t anticipate Rodgers having a huge game Thursday night, it is extremely nearsighted to think he won’t show up. We are talking about a guy who threw for 25 TDs vs. 2 INTs last season in one of the least creative offensive systems in football. As a comparison, Mitch Trubisky threw two or more INTs in four of his 14 starts last year. Trubisky doesn’t have to be Rodgers for the Bears to win on Thursday night, but he must protect the football like Rodgers. In a season in which defenses will be far more prepared for Matt Nagy’s schemes, ball security from the quarterback position is a major concern.

If you are a Bears fan looking for reasons to be optimistic about Thursday nights opener, keep in mind that the Packers are only 11-11 in primetime games dating back to 2014. They are also 0-5 in their last five primetime road games and 3-10 overall on the road in primetime since 2014. Another reason to be optimistic on Thursday is the fact that the last five Packers coaches have lost their first game against the Bears. Mike McCarthy, Mike Sherman, Ray Rhodes, Mike Holmgren, and Joe Philbin have all took an L. If the Bears can contain Aaron Rodgers Thursday night, David LeFleur will be the latest to add his name to this list.

Football

Signal Caller Spotlight – Aaron Rodgers: This is what’s it’s like to win the lottery

By Wes French 1539 0

1991, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers.

1991 is the last year the Green Bay Packers had to worry about who might start at Quarterback.

1991 is the last time Chicago fans had anything on Green Bay. It’s been misery since.

Aaron Rodgers (against what have to be wildly absurd odds considering what you see when you scan this hellscape for capable, reliable, nearly indestructible, nevermind no-doubt HOF QBs) extended this misery that started almost three decades ago. Green Bay lucked into Brett Favre and nearly 15 years of his wizardry/bullshit and then hit the jackpot again when Rodgers slid into their lap and became the best QB of this generation. Fight me, all of Boston.

Rodgers, now 35 (!!), isn’t really showing his age. 2019 marks his 15th season and 12th straight as leader of the Pack. He’s coming off a subpar season in record only, as you’d assume throwing for 4,442 yards (2nd best of his career), 25 TDs and only TWO INTs (career low) would get you better than 6-9-1, but that gives a better idea of his surrounding cast of late. The season was basically Rodgers vs. his former Head Coach Mike McCarthy, or the guy that kept trying to get Rodgers killed the last 2-3 years. Rodgers entered 2018 coming off his shortest and worst season in his career, an injury shortened campaign that saw him start only seven games, a product of his garbage offensive line and McCarthy’s aforementioned affinity for putting his meal ticket in the worst situations possible at all times.

Enter Matt LaFleur, Green Bay’s dive into the pool of Sean McVay disciples/clones. LaFleur could barely be described as Rodger’s senior at just 39 himself, and honestly I don’t think most NFL fans know anything about him outside of he’s now the HC of the Packers. This feels a bit like an odd sort of experiment for Green Bay. LaFleur has nothing in the way of a resume, at least not one you’d think would get him the top job for a team trying to get what they can out of the last few years of Aaron Rodgers. This could be the team giving in a bit to their mega star, and trying to catch HC lightning in a bottle at the same time. LaFleur learns from Rodgers on the job and plays 1b to his QB1. This would actually be a pretty interesting and possibly successful situation….but this is the NFL. This is Green Bay thinking they’re getting the next young genius, but will he be smart enough to stay out of his own way?

Rodgers sure hopes so, and the blueprint is really laid out for him. McCarthy’s play calling, while clearly pissing off the most important man in the building, had become stale and easy to solve. Rodgers gets a lot of credit/flack for throwing the ball away so often, but that was mostly a product of the bad play calls. He’s smart enough to know when not to take a chance on a small window or when they play is just busted and he can extend his career with an incompletion. Sure, the meatheads wearing cheese might take issue with this, but doing this his entire career has helped him remain the best for so long.

Rodgers is more than just a guy living for the next play, though, and his ability to get his is something a defense can hope to contain more than stop completely. The Bears at least pose a strong threat to Rodgers and the Packers, being able to rush the quarterback effectively. McCarthy’s ineffective play-action won’t be a factor, though, and we’ll see if/how laFleur’s differ. Aaron Jones should contribute to the latter, with establishing a rushing attack now quite important to aiding Rodgers. Chuck Pagano and his league-best secondary will play a huge role as well, and they’ve got a high bar to clear after Vic Fangio’s work the last few years.

Everyone is well aware of the heartbreak from last season’s opening loss to Rodgers in Green Bay, and Rodger’s 4th quarter comeback is the type of thing he’s always capable of – three TDs in one quarter, two over 35 yards, one of which went for 75. The good news? In seven other quarters the Bears held Rodgers under 400 yards passing, picked him off once and sacked him seven times. Essentially, don’t take your foot off the gas against him on defense. Keep the pressure up and be relentless with it while trusting your coverage to make the plays that rush creates.

Khalil Mack said his favorite part about Packers week is sacking Aaron Rodgers. Chicago will need him and the rest of the defense to start the year the way everyone wants to – atop the NFC North and help Rodgers out of his gatekeeper role for this division.