All analytic stats at even-strength.
Game #22 Preview
Lots of afternoon stuff today, so we’ll get this out early to get you ready for your viewing as you avoid going anywhere that might have any retail shops anywhere near it.
First Screen Viewing
Predators vs. Blues – 7pm
Those who would be king against those who simply won’t vacate the throne at the moment. This would be a good time for a “St. Louis and throne-as-toilet” joke, but I’m still coming down from tryptophan and scotch. So you’re going to have to deal with me at less than full speed today. The Blues are head and shoulders above the Central and West as a whole, and if any team is going to haul them in in the division it’s probably Nashville (and maybe Calgary in the conference overall). The Preds have only lost once since Kyle Turris showed up, and they’ve piled up 23 goals in those six games. Pretty tidy. The Blues can’t seem to lose either, and it’s kind of a wonder there isn’t more play about how Mike Yeo is a better coach than Ken Hitchcock right now as he’s doing this with a worse and more injured roster than the one Hitch got himself fired from last year. Food for thought. With all apologies to the Jets (meaning none), these are the two best teams in the Central right now and if the Preds are going to make a charge, they probably need this one as a seven-point-gap even only a quarter of the way through a season is more than miniscule.
Second Screen Viewing
Oilers vs. Sabres – 6pm
First off, it’s funny because both these teams blow when their entitled fanbases thought they could actually be something this year. But really, this is just another chance to bitch about how the NHL markets itself. Here you have a day that the NHL is actively trying to mark out some territory in, as they’ve surrendered Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day to the NFL and NBA, and when the former encroaches on New Years Day the NHL is all too happy to move it’s signature, regular-season event, too. But Black Friday seems to be something where they see an opportunity. And every year, it’s some combination of Rangers, Flyers, Bruins, Penguins. That’s it. Because they’re all in the East and can be shoehorned into the noon time-slot because the NHL is too chicken-shit to try and put it at a real time and NBC also just has to show… looks up…Ellen’s show? And hey, I love Ellen to an irrational degree but come on here.
So here’s a game between two of the game’s biggest young stars, including the best player in the league right now. What would be more interesting? McDavid and Eichel (with the latter playing for a rabid and large fanbase which is the only thing the NHL cares about when scheduling this) or another game between two teams the hockey world has already gotten bored of? I’ll hang up and listen for my answer.
Other Games
Penguins vs. Bruins – noon
Jets vs. Ducks – 3pm (Ha, the Hawks were replaced by the Jets for this traditional game)
Avalanche vs. Wild – 3pm
Islanders vs. Flyers – 3pm
Lightning vs. Capitals – 4pm
Sharks vs. Knights – 5pm
Canucks vs. Devils – 6pm
Red Wings vs. Rangers – 6pm
Senators vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes – 6:30
Kings vs. Coyotes – 8pm
Flames vs. Stars – 8pm
After an electric 1st period, the Hawks saw why the Lightning are the best team in the NHL. To the bullets.
– This game was a goaltending clinic. Between Crawford stoning the best power play in the league and Vasilevskiy making several unbelievable saves against Saad, Panik, and Kane in OT, there was no shortage of magic in the crease. Only injury will keep these two from being Vezina finalists.
– The PK was brilliant yet again. Despite six straight minutes of shorthanded time in the 1st period, 42 seconds of which were of the 5-on-3 variety, the Hawks escaped unscathed. You can thank Crawford yet again for coming up large on the 5-on-3, stopping three shots, but the PK as a whole looked tight throughout.
– What Patrick Kane giveth, Patrick Kane taketh away. He was a complete dynamo in the 1st, lifting a sharp wrister over Vasilevskiy’s glove and burying a horrible-angle shot on the Hawks’s 5-on-3 later in the period. But from the 2nd period on, Kane obviously began to think more about the night he will inevitably spend slicking copious amounts of gel through both his and Jon Cooper’s slimily coifed, over-fragranced hairdos as they hop from humid dive bar to humid dive bar. He had a sloppy drop pass on the PP in the 2nd that nearly led to the Ning’s second SH goal, and he continued to leave drop passes in bad spots throughout. And while Vasilevskiy is obviously the real deal, you still expect him to pot a breakaway opportunity in OT. Kane’s performance was reflective of the Hawks’s as a whole: incredible start, leftover-turkey fart to finish.
– I’m getting really itchy about Brandon Saad’s inability to score lately. He had two excellent opportunities that he just couldn’t finish. The first was on a 3-on-1 on the PP. It looked like he wanted to bank the shot off Vasilevskiy’s pad for a rebound to Wide Dick, but with a 3-on-1, I was hoping for a centering pass. Maybe the angle was off for a pass, but the shot selection seemed a bit desperate and rushed. Of course, when that shot didn’t go in, the Ning turned around and scored (Kane’s spaciness on the far boards was also a factor), and continued to tilt the ice. Then in the 3rd, after a sweet feed from Toews, Saad couldn’t finish again. His shooting percentage is now at 5.4% when you discount the first two games, well off his career pace. I’m confident he’ll find it, but sooner would be better than later.
– Saad wasn’t the only guy to biff prime chances tonight. Panik, Schmaltz, and Forsling all had near misses, with Forsling’s being the least egregious with a shot off the post in the 2nd. But Panik getting denied by Vasilevskiy in the 3rd after Saad’s denial was especially frustrating. Again, Vasilevskiy is excellent, but with a yawning net, it’s got to go in. It’s now been 12 games since his last goal. And Schmaltz’s wide shot after a prime feed from Anisimov on the doorstep on a 2-on-1 is inexcusable for a guy with hands that good.
– This was one of Connor Murphy’s best games. His even-strength Corsi was an absurd 78.95%, and his positioning and physicality throughout the game were consistently outstanding and well-placed. I want to see him get more time on the ice, both in general and on the PK, but in nearly 14 minutes tonight (0:55 on the PK), he showed the defensive prowess that the Hawks brought him in for.
– The Hawks CF%s at evens tonight by period: 59+, 26+, 46+. So you’ll take the pity point.
– Three-on-three OT is still stupid, but it was fun watching Crow and Vasilevskiy trade amazing saves.
If and when the stable of Toews, Panik, and Saad pull their shooting percentages out of their ass slings, the Hawks are going to crack off some sort of 20-points-in-10-games streak. You feel this team starting to jell, but time is of the essence.
Safe holidays to everyone this week.
Booze Du Jour: Woodford Reserve
Line of the Night: Everything, because I didn’t have to listen to Mike Milbury at all.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you’re well into your planning and prep for your meal. With the holiday coming up tomorrow, it only feels right to talk about something you should bring to the table if you’re the kind that drinks beer instead of wine with your meal… I generally do both. Now in general, you can’t go wrong with a good pilsner with your meal. Generally light and dry won’t overpower anything but also won’t back down.
But that’s not as much fun as something big and complex. So if you’re looking grab something at the store today or tomorrow, might I suggest Old Numbskull. Old Numbskull is an award winning Barleywine from AleSmith, based out in San Diego, CA. I won’t go too into the history of Barleywines but just know they are strong, rich, boozy beers that compliment Thanksgiving meals perfectly. Old Numbskull is 11%, a perfect sipper that ought to improve throughout the meal as the beer warms up. Most barleywines have an remaining sweetness from the malts up front that will transform into a biting bitterness from its aggressive hopping at the end. Plenty of toffee and burnt sugar wrapped up with roasted malts and dark red fruitiness. Buy two now, enjoy one tomorrow and save the other for next year to see how the beer changes. Or just drink them both tomorrow and get fucked up. Barleywine is life.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 10-8-2 Lightning 15-3-2
PUCK DROP: 6:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago for the locals, NBCSN proper for the non-locals
FLORIDA MEN: Raw Charge
The degree of difficulty certainly goes up for the Hawks tonight. While fashioning together a modest two-game winning streak against the hottest team in the league but flawed Rangers and the defending champs but scuffling Penguins, the Hawks will get a face-full of the best team in the league in the Tampa Bay Lightning. If you’re already feeling a small shiver, don’t worry. A) you’re not alone, and B) it’s Blackout Wednesday so either you won’t remember this one or won’t even see it at all as you prepare to spend the day tomorrow with weirdos who share your last name/blood/both.
We’ll start in the obvious place with the Bolts, which is their top line that is simply a boom-stick right now. Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov is probably the best line going, and they’ve only combined for 88 points in 20 games so far. Stamkos is off to the best start of his career, with 35 points in the first 20 games which puts him on pace for 143 for the season. Kucherov is on a 70-goal pace, and if he gets out there against Seabrook consistently tonight that pace might jump to a 105. Kucherov is an under-the-radar Hart candidate and was last year as well, but will struggle to get votes as the crusty hockey media try and wheel pose their way into handing every award to a Canadian who can barely read but has a name they can pronounce.
But it’s not just a one-line team. Brayden Point has emerged as a weapon for all occasions, being asked to take on the top lines of other teams and providing scoring of his own with Baby Hossa Ondrej Palat and Yanni Gourde, which no is not a physical condition or a Mediterranean dish/singer. Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn are being used in a creative way where they are the line that’s short a winger in their seven-defensemen look, and can be used to boost scoring as a straight up checking line. Ryan Callahan, J.T. Brown, and Chris Kunitz all get a look there, but Kucherov or Palat can also get extra shifts there if the Lightning need offense.
The back end has the same problems it always had, but less of them. There are still definite plodders and creatures in Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr. But their roles have been relegated to third pairing. Victor Hedman hasn’t hit the heights of the past yet, but is still one of the more dynamic d-men you’ll find. Mikhail Sergachev has been the second puck-mover they’ve always needed behind Hedman, and has allowed Anton Stralman to age into the more conservative partner role.
All of that’s backed up by Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has been a Chicago construction crew in his first full year as a starter, stopping anything that’s in front of him. He’s at .928 for the season.
Clearly it’s an impressive package. There’s a reason they’ve only missed out on eight points of the 40 on offer and are simply horsing the East right now. And they can play it however they need to. Jon Cooper, while not sorting his various oils and balms, is one of the league’s leading #NotAMorons, and usually has the Bolts playing up-tempo and high-pressure. They’re almost always fun to watch, with Hedman and now Sergachev they can run with anyone. But if they have to they can lock it down as well through Johnson, Point, Killorn, Palat, Callahan, and their various clydesdales blocking shooting lanes down low.
So yeah, tall timber here.
For the Hawks, they’ll roll out the same lineup that got one over the Penguins, and there’s no reason to expect that Corey Crawford won’t have a lot of work to do tonight. Cooper will certainly look to get his matchups, and when his top line is out there against… well, really any pairing, it’s going to be an adventure. And it won’t be a slow one. Good way to go into the holiday. Enjoy it.
Game #21 Preview
For most of our existence, we’ve done our best to mock Steve Yzerman’s reign as GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The scars of damage inflicted during his playing days do not heal so fast, or at all, dear friends. We simply wouldn’t relent. And as the Lightning struggled at times, we laughed and pointed and mocked. It was made even better at Red Wings fans cried their usual rivers of tears and motor oil (all of which they dump in Flint) that Yzerman was allowed to leave Detroit at all.
And yet, here we are, and Yzerman is leading the best team in the league at the moment and almost certainly the Cup favorite. And they were that before the season. And we have to admit…hang with us here…this isn’t going to be easy…
Steve Yzerman is pretty good at his job.
His drafting record is among the best you’ll find. The first one in 2010 didn’t go so well, but did provide two NHL-ers in Brett Connolly and Radko Gudas, even if the latter should be sitting in front of a parole board/firing squad at the moment. The following year netted the Bolts Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov, Nikita Nesterov, and Ondrej Palat. The following year saw Slater Koekkoek, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Cedric Pacquette, and Jake Dotchin. 2013 brought Jonathan Drouin, which turned into Mikhail Sergachev. Brayden Point was taken in 2014. That’s 12 players that either are on this team now, have contributed heavily in the past, or were turned into pieces that are contributing now. And in Kucherov he’s got a potential Hart Trophy winner.
Yes, Yzerman inherited Stamkos and Hedman, which are the two big building blocks and any GM should be rated on the the foundational pieces he brings in. But certainly Kucherov and Palat are building blocks as well. Sergachev may well turn into one.
Yes, Yzerman has had a blind spot on his blue line, where contracts have been handed out to Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, Jason Garrison, and one or two other overgrown sloths with gloves. That’s been balanced this year by Sergachev and Anton Stralman a few years ago. It clearly hasn’t killed them.
Where Yzerman’s real creativity has come in has been dancing around the salary cap. “CAPOCALYPSE!” has been predicted for the Lightning for a few years now, and it just hasn’t materialized. The big piece was convincing Steven Stamkos that the no-state-income-tax in Florida would benefit him greatly, even if his salary wasn’t as high as it would have been in New York or Toronto or Montreal. Stamkos on pace for 120 points at $8.5 million sure seems value now. Tyler Johnson’s $5 million a season might be a bit of an overreach, but hardly scandalous. Same with Alex Killorn’s $4.4, though the fact that runs from here until President’s Warren’s swearing-in might be an issue.
What’s more is that the Lightning have two or three years more to this window that’s already seen them get to a Final and a Game 7 Conference Final. Kucherov is due new paper after next season, and considering the numbers he’s putting up he could ask for something in the $10 million range. Certainly in the Stamkos range, even if he will be only a restricted free agent. But that same offseason will see the Lightning clear Stralman, Coburn, and Girardi off the books. Only Namestnikov is due an extension after this season of any player who matters. Even if Kucherov needs the moon Yzerman will have $11 million or so to play with to give to him if need be. That doesn’t even factor in whatever raise the cap will have by then.
All told, the Lightning should get a run of four or five, maybe six, years at the top of the league. That’s about the maximum anyone gets in a cap world. You can’t argue.
Of course, this kills us. The orchestrator of so many of our nightmares running a team the way we’d like to see one run. It never ends, the horrors never leave, the pain is always present.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Game #21 Preview
George is a contributor to RawCharge.com. You can follow him on Twitter @GeoFitz4.
Best record in the league, four guys averaging more than a point per game, with Stamkos nearly at two points per game. Is there anything to complain about in Bolts-land?
– Only real complaint has been the usage of Slater Koekkoek. Jon Cooper has used seven defensemen for all but a handful of games this season. This was actually something I predicted would happen earlier in the off-season. With three young defensemen, it allows Associate Head Coach Rick Bowness to balance the ice time of the younger kids and protect them. So far, Koekkoek and Andrej Sustr have rotated in-and-out of the 7th defenseman spot. It’s been a little bit frustrating because we feel that Koekkoek has played well in the time he’s been given, while Sustr has regressed and his flaws have been more exposed than ever. Koekkoek is a smooth skater and was once looked on as a potential #3 defenseman. He had three shoulder surgeries (two on one, one on the other) before even starting his professional career and that stunted his development a bit. In the grand scheme of things, it’s a minor complaint.
Brayden Point is already halfway to his rookie point total from last year. What do we need to know about him?
– Recently I’ve seen some comparisons of Point to Blackhawks Captain Jonathan Toews. Not saying that he’s up to Toews level… yet… but he’s the kind of player that does the little things right. He’s not a master at any one thing, but he’s just a very solid all-around player that plays great defense and produces offensively. His line, with Ondrej Palat and Yanni Gourde on either wing, have been tasked with taking on top lines. Expect his line to be out there a lot against Toews and Saad. Point was overlooked in his draft year despite his offensive output (36-55-91 in 72GP in WHL with Moose Jaw) because of his size and some minor questions on his skating according to reports at the time. Since then, he’s picked up a couple inches and probably 15-20 pounds. That extra size and the work he has put in with renowned skating coach Barb Underhill allowed him to really bring his game to the next level. He was the first AHL-eligible professional rookie to make the Lightning out of training camp under Steve Yzerman. That’s just not something that happens with this organization anymore.
Mikhail Sergachev has 14 points and was the offseason’s big acquisition. Is he already the second puck-moving d-man the Lightning have needed behind Hedman.
– Most definitely. The Lightning had a bit of a luxury in having three elite forwards on the roster. But they really only had one elite defenseman, as good as Anton Stralman is. Sergachev is proving to be that second player and he has more goals and points than Jonathan Drouin this season. Habs fans though will rightfully point out that Sergachev has a much better supporting cast in Tampa than he would of had in Montreal and he likely wouldn’t be producing like this north of the border. He’s a smart, charismatic kid that has a great work ethic and it comes through in the Russian interviews RawCharge has translated. He’s mostly been paired with Anton Stralman who has proven to be a great compliment to him. Stralman had career offensive seasons when he joined the Lightning but cooled off last season away from Hedman. But what he did with Hedman is the same thing he can do for Sergachev – give him a solid defensive presence that is an excellent communicator and will let him do his thing. He’s also earned his way on to the second power-play unit and has shown a knack for getting pucks on net through bodies.
How is Dan Girardi rocking positive underlying numbers when he was an utter disaster in New York?
– So, funny thing about that. @LoserPoints, our resident advanced stats experts, was just chatting with the rest of the staff about Girardi’s numbers a few days ago. With the Lightning using seven defensemen, it means that everyone is getting a chance to play with everyone else. When Girardi has been with Sergachev, he’s posted some ridiculously good numbers. With every one else, his numbers are mostly in the negative. A lot like his normal partner Braydon Coburn, he doesn’t push the pace offensively, but he has been better at limiting defensive chances for the Lightning. He’s been able to compliment Sergachev in the limited time they’ve played together and Sergachev’s offensive instincts has helped to buoy Girardi’s numbers. Girardi also mentioned in interviews before the season that last year he was slowed down by a nagging foot injury. That’s healed (though it’s only a matter of time before he’s hurt blocking a shot) and that has shown through in his positioning.
If this team doesn’t come out of the East, it will be because….?
– Injuries, particularly to Andrei Vasilevskiy or Victor Hedman. Vasilevskiy in particular is one of the big keys to this team going deep. While the offense is bound to cool off sooner or later, they do have tremendous scoring depth in the top eight forwards. There are some replacement options up front in the AHL in the form of veteran Cory Conacher and prospects Adam Erne, and Matthew Peca. The blue line is a little bit shakier, but the team could weather an injury there, maybe two. Having kept Koekkoek and Sustr, the Lightning are carrying eight NHL defensemen. In the AHL though, the depth just isn’t there. Jamie McBain is the lone defenseman with any NHL experience, though his experience is ample with over 300 games in the NHL. Beyond that, there’s one AHL veteran that could fill-in, one that is already on the bottom of the AHL line-up, a third-year pro, and then two each in their first and second years in the AHL. The goaltending depth picture did get a little bit better with a trade for Louis Domingue to replace Michael Leighton who had been struggling in the AHL. However, a pairing of Domingue and Peter Budaj doesn’t give fans the most confidence unless Domingue can return closer to what he’s shown in the past with the Coyotes.
Game #21 – Hawks vs. Lightning: Douchebag Du Jour – Dan Girardi Is The Reason We Have Pierre McGuire
Sure, why not?
One of the most annoying aspects of following the NHL, and writing about it, is having to sift through those who broadcast it and how they view what makes a player valuable. And this spreads to those who make decisions on how to build hockey teams, sometimes directly from the media, which is how you get the mess you have in Montreal right now, for instance.
Dan Girardi is a prime example. For the last few years, whenever the New York Rangers were on national TV, which was far too much (and yes, we know a Hawks fan saying another team was on TV too much is rich beyond all get out and we recognize that), you’d have to listen to at least 10 minutes at varying points combined of Pierre McGuire slobbering all over himself over what a “warrior” and “competitor” and the “heart” of Dan Girardi. He would do this because Girardi would always be involved in battles in the corner or out front of the net or blocking shots (notice these don’t ever involve his team having the puck). McGuire would try and sell you the game through the tales of these guys who were held together by duct tape but couldn’t wait to throw themselves in front of launched frozen rubber at the first opportunity to earn yet another bruise that sends people like McGuire to the height of emotional (and sadly probably physical) tumescence.
What it conveniently ignored was that Dan Girardi sucked. He still sucks. He has sucked for a long time. The Rangers were demonstrably worse when he was on the ice, and his usual partner Ryan McDonagh was assuredly about three minutes away from taking a blowtorch to his locker in the dressing room. McDonagh’s career has certainly been shortened after years of cleaning up whatever mess Girardi continually put him in. His relative-Corsi’s are simply comedy to look up over the years, his coup-de-stupid coming in ’15-’16 when he was a -8.6, one of the worst marks in the league.
But that kind of blathering from media still gets players like him a lot of money, so more power to him we guess. We just wish there were less of his types so there would be less chance of the Milburys and McGuires of the world to mess themselves on our televisions. There’s an image to take you into the holiday.
Game #21 Preview
All stats at even strength unless noted, and all adjusted for score and venue.
Expected Goals: Goals team “should” have scored and given up based on amount and types of chances created and surrendered, given neutral goaltending.
Time On Ice Percentage: Percent of team’s even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio: Amount of shifts that start in offensive zone out of all shifts
Game #21 Preview
All analytic stats at even-strength and adjusted for score and venue.
Game #21 Preview
