Everything Else

Game #21 – Wild vs Hawks Preview: Maybe I’m Just Too Demanding

By Sam Fels 1938 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Wild 12-6-2   Hawks 7-8-5

PUCK DROP: 5pm

TV: WGN, NHL Network for those outside the 606

ANIMALS STRIKING CURIOUS POSES: Hockey Wilderness

After playing two games that would be considered a war crime if you made any prisoner watch them, the Hawks will get a chance to open up things a little tonight. Or this afternoon. 5pm exists in that nebulous area where it depends on the time of year whether it’s night or afternoon. Let’s go with evening. Anyway, they’ll face one of the hotter teams in the league in the Minnesota Wild.

This is where other people would tell you that the Wild mean business this time. That their faster ways are indicative of a team that knows it’s on the precipice of being blown up and has maybe one more chance and is finally going to take it. And I’m supposed to tell you as long as Devan Dubnyk is healthy (and ugly) and doing Doobie Brother things, the Wild have a puncher’s chance. That’s what I’m supposed to say.

But you know what I’m going to say. This is just more of the same from Bruce “Are You Gonna Finish That?” Boudreau and his charges. His “GO GO GO BURRITO DORITO FIESTA ANTIPASTO” method of coaching works great in the regular season, especially one like this that’s been so open. And his team will play harder than most everyone who couldn’t locate a fuck to give come February. And then his lack of any structure or Plan B (or even Plan A) will doom the Wild to getting it upside the head by the Jets or Predators or Sharks. That’s how this goes. You know how this goes. You’ve seen this before.

This version features a Mikael Granlund shooting 27%, which has him making an assault on his career-high in goals already. It’s 26 if you must know. Zach Parise has returned from whatever bionic implant procedure he had to have most recently and is averaging close to a point per game. Mikko Koivu drank the mermaid’s tear and is also near a point per game on a line with Parise. All of this sure sounds sustainable!

The Wild do have something of a newish weapon on defense in a fully operational Matthew Dumba. He had 50 points last year, bet you didn’t know that, but he’s already at eight goals so far this term. He’s a real weapon on the power play where his shot is quite powerful and accurate, so hopefully the Hawks d-men take notes. Ryan Suter has been happy to cede the puck-moving responsibilities to him on the top pairing, so hopefully Duncan Keith takes notes on that (he won’t). Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin remain one of the more underrated second pairings in the league, where Spurgeon’s size doesn’t preclude him from moving the puck in the right direction most of the time.

Dubnyk started last night in a loss to the Sabres, so the Hawks may benefit from the rare appearance of Alex Stalock (Alex Stalock…at this time of year…at this time of day…in this part of the country….localized in the United Center). But then again the Hawks couldn’t really solve whatever parking lot attendant was backstopping the Kings on Friday. And also Boudreau likes to turn his starters into paste by March so don’t be shocked if Gabby runs Dubs right back out there.

The statistical oddity about the Wild, and this was the case last year as well, is that they don’t get the majority of attempts but they do get the majority of good chances. They’re below water in Corsi but one of the league’s best in xGF%. They limit chances and their high-rate of speed in the top nine does get them to the net. This became a huge problem for the Hawks in their game at The X when their slow defense couldn’t protect a lead against these forwards when they were fully off the leash. Hard to see how that gets better tonight.

The Hawks will have a bit of a reshuffle, with the nuclear option of Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane forming a top line and Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat dragging around the carcass of Artem Anisimov. Fortin-Kampf-Kahun will form an at least quick third line, which could be something of a checking unit if need be. It won’t score much, but it could create some havoc. We’ll see. Jan Rutta comes in from the cold to partner Gustav Forsling, with Stan Bowman in the suite with fingers and toes crosses that tonight is finally the night his vision comes to life of that pairing. Corey Crawford gets the start.

The Hawks get a schedule advantage tonight, not having played last night and waiting for the Wild who did. They get a backup possibly. They put up something of a beer fart of an effort on Friday, but the Wild are not going to sink and trap and try and keep things quiet like the Kings and Blues did. The Hawks don’t really have the creativity, especially in the back, to work their way through those kind of trenches consistently. It’ll be more open tonight. But it also might be too open for a defense that can’t really move or do well under extreme pressure.

So the Hawks struggle against real conservatism. They can’t handle high-pressure. That’s just about every team in the league covered.

Fuck me.

 

Game #21 Preview Suite

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Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

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Everything Else

Game #21 – Wild vs. Hawks Spotlight: Judgement Is Coming For Charlie Coyle

By Sam Fels 1431 0

As Brent Burns racks up Norris finalist nominations and an award, continues to put up record shooting numbers and dominate play with a Stanley Cup contender, Wild fans must look at Charlie Coyle like that Christmas gift from that aunt you never liked that sits in the closet. It was a time and place for something wonderful. It became a a shoe-buffer.

Coyle has never been bad. He’s carved out pretty much a third-line role. He’s floated between center and wing for years, playing both capably. And yet you see the size and speed and hands and you wonder how it’s amounted only one season where he averaged more than a point every two games. There is a feeling of something missed.

What’s particularly galling, is that at 6-3, 220 pounds, Coyle has never managed to put up more than two shots per game in any season. He’s come close only once. With that size and mobility, Coyle should be able to get wherever he wants in the offensive zone. He should be a player who can create his own shot consistently, and yet he’s been subservient to whoever his linemates are.

It’s more infuriating because Coyle has a great shot and scored at a high-percentage. He has a career SH% of 11.2. That’s probably due to Coyle mostly scoring from in close when he does get to the net, as his stature suggests he should at a regular basis. But why isn’t he there more often? Just for giggles, Burns has been averaging three to four shots per game and he plays on defense.

In essence, Coyle is the Wild’s Brandon Saad. You’ll see a game here or there where he looks unplayable. And then you wonder why it isn’t there for the next five games.

But unlike Saad, Coyle hasn’t been identified as a staple of future Wild teams. The Wild brought in a new GM this past summer in Paul Fenton. His charge will be to get the Wild to be something more than the background scenery they’ve been…well, since they came into existence. What the Wild lack, and have lacked, it a front-line forward or d-man, at least one to pair with Ryan Suter. They also lack cap space.

Coyle probably doesn’t get them either. But if he’s going to have trade value, it’s probably at the deadline. Coyle has another year left on his deal after this one, and he’s one of the non-crippling cap hits on the Wild (all too rare). He’s only at $3.2M. If there’s a GM that thinks he can unlock the 55+ point player Coyle can and should be, that’s a snip.

Fenton is going to want to make changes somewhere. The Wild need some sort of shakeup, or at least that was the thinking after yet another first-round exit last year. The Dubnyk De Soleil has never gotten them much, and there has to be more. There also isn’t a lot of flexibility. Parise and Suter aren’t going anywhere. Neither are Dumba, Spurgeon. Niederreiter is over $5M and would be harder to move, and is also signed until 2022. Jason Zucker was just re-upped. They’ve tried to move Jonas Brodin for years, with not much luck.

Coyle will either disappoint and be moved along as a show of trying to improve things, or at least change them. Or he’ll turn it around finally, and prove to be a pillar of whatever the Wild are going to be. He’s still only 26. Either way, the waiting is almost over for Wild fans and Coyle.

 

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Game #21 – Wild vs. Hawks Q&A: Giles Ferrell

By Sam Fels 1489 0

Giles Ferrell covers the Wild for ZoneCoverage.com. He’s also a Red, which means he’s thoroughly charming and smart. Follow him @GilesFerrell.

The Wild are currently splitting the Preds and Jets in the standings. They’ve won six of seven. Are they really this good or just on a hot streak and will settle in?

Given how badly the Wild were waxed last season by Winnipeg, I still think the Jets will make up ground and jump the Wild in the standings. But it is unreal how well the Wild are playing right now and the pessimist in me tends to think at some point these guys will come down back to life a bit. Mikko Koivu is defying his age — 35 — and is averaging nearly a point per game this season. Zach Parise is also almost at a point per game pace and we were openly wondering just how much hockey this guy had left in him a year ago because of his crippling injury. Mikael Granlund is shooting an unsustainable 27% right now because everyone is respecting the [redacted] out of his pass-first tendencies. If these guys were to cool off or miss time with injury, it is very possible — because Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter have struggled just about all season — the Wild will come back down to earth.

The underlying numbers suggest the Wild don’t generate more attempts than their opponents, but they do generate more good chances. Is that what you see?
This is very true. Chances have been few and far between for the Wild early on this season, but they have made the most of those chances. Something besides Granlund realizing his stick was also for shooting in addition to passing is that the Wild have done really well at getting into the dirty areas this season and creating more garbage goals, with Parise leading the charge on that. The guy has returned to a form that not even has been seen in a Wild uniform. But they are also getting ridiculous contributions from their bottom six, as they really do outwork their opponents to draw penalties and/or create scoring opportunities.
Our dear boy Nino Niederreiter only has one goal. Something amiss here or just rotten luck with his 3% shooting percentage?
It has been most painful to watch Nino Niederreiter this season as you can hear him on the television grind his stick into sawdust every freaking shift. He just needs a goal or two to come out of this — and he got one Thursday night on a redirection — but good lord this is not the kind of start he needed with a new boss looking on to make “tweaks” to this roster. So many missed empty nets/golden chances on his part this season. If I had a dollar for every time he has looked up into the rafters after missing a glorious chance I could afford to buy the Timberwolves and fire Tom Thibodeau into the sun. For Nino’s sake, and for Wild fans’ sake, he needs to get it together real soon.
Devan Dubnyk has played in 14 of the Wild’s 18 games. Any fear it may be too heavy of a workload for a goalie in his 30s now?
As the most noted listeners of the Giles and the Goalie podcast would point out, I have been banging this drum for a few years now. The Wild have been so crunched to the cap year after year they can not afford a decent backup goalie to give Dubnyk some extra nights off. Alex Stalock has been alright this year, but I don’t think his body of work inspires Boudreau to give him any extra nights in goal as of yet. Credit to Dubnyk is that he continues to perform at a high caliber level despite the heavy work load. But at some point, this too will be catching up with the Wild. Paul Fenton better hope it is not this year.

 

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Game #21 – Wild vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: If You Need To Tell Everyone, Then You Aren’t It

By Sam Fels 1552 0

If you watch any number of Wild broadcasts, and you probably shouldn’t if you want to claim any use to society which we gave up on long ago, you’ll get the impression that the production wasn’t hugged enough as a child. Or maybe too much. We can’t tell.

The Wild, or maybe just their media coverage, has this great need to be identified as someone’s “great rival.” A few years ago, it was the Blackhawks that were labeled that. Every visit of the Hawks to The X was labeled as a visit from “the Wild’s great rival.” Except the Hawks only ever noticed the Wild as a rest stop on their way to the next round of the playoffs. Games between the two meant so much to those in St. Paul. The Hawks treated them as, “Who are you again?”

These days, it’s the Winnipeg Jets that the Wild are claiming is their blood feud. We guess by physical proximity it could work. Except the Jets don’t care, because the Jets now see the Wild as nothing more than a rest stop on their way to the next round of the playoffs. And if the Jets have a rival, it’s probably another Canadian team because that’s just how things work up there.

If you have a rival, it means you matter to someone. And that’s been the Wild’s problem. They haven’t really mattered to anyone. You never think about them, and when they pop up on the schedule your biggest reaction is, “Oh right, them.” No one ever circles dates against the Wild on the schedule. Hell, people in Minnesota basically treat them as a pre-show to the Gophers. So perhaps their aching need to bother someone is just a cry for attention. It has to be.

But they’re still not there. Jets fans don’t care about the Wild, especially given the way the Winnipeg turned the Wild into an aioli in last year’s playoffs. And they’re likely to do so again, if the Wild aren’t served up to the Predators instead.

The Wild aren’t even a little brother. They don’t have that kind of connection. They’re the kid down the street who keeps offering to fight you for money while you’re just trying to get to the store. They’re no one’s rival, except for maybe themselves.

Keep stamping your feet, Minnehaha. Maybe you should get a horn like the Vikings. At least then you’d be annoying, which would move the needle in any way. Which the Wild haven’t done ever.

 

Game #21 Preview Suite

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – November 17th

By Sam Fels 1062 0

First Screen Viewing

Oliers vs. Flames – 9pm

The first Battle Of Alberta of the season highlights a rather lackluster Saturday night slate. The Flames are fun and have a ton of drama because you can watch Mike Smith torpedo an overall good effort and then watch Flames Nation immolate itself on Twitter. They have to be getting close to going to David Rittich full-time, which will send Smith into orbit and that’ll be fun too. The Oilers aren’t any good either, but these games tend to be passionate affairs and if you don’t want to head out into the sleet tonight, this one will keep you company.

Second Screen Viewing

Sabres vs. Wild – Now

Before the Wild invade tomorrow night to join their Viking brethren for an all-Minnehaha raid of Chicago, they’ll take on the surprising Sabres. Should probably start paying more attention to Buffalo, as the addition of Jeff Skinner and Rasmus Dahlin has made them actually watchable and noticeable. The Wild are the league’s hottest team at the moment, and Boudreau has them playing faster than before.

Other Games

Canadiens vs. Canucks – 6pm

Penguins vs. Senators – 6pm

Panthers vs. Rangers – 6pm

Jackets vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Bruins vs. Coyotes – 7pm

Kings vs. Predators – 7pm

Blues vs. Sharks – 9:30

Everything Else

Game #20 – Hawks 1, Kings 1, Kings Win Rock, Paper, Scissors: Leaves Start Falling, Comedown is Calling

By Rose Rankin 2182 0

It took a really long time, but after about 46 minutes the Hawks and Kings realized they were playing a game in front of spectators and cameras, and they stopped skating around with their dicks in their hands and attempted to play something resembling hockey. Unfortunately for the Hawks it was a lot of the type of hockey they’ve been playing lately, and they could barely squeeze out a point against some bottom-feeders and their fourth-string goalie. Are you sure you want to know more? OK then, we’ll get to the bullets, but don’t say I didn’t warn you…

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– It’s almost hard to express how painfully dull and stupid the first two periods were. The Kings are not a good team, and we know this to be true, and yet they outplayed the Hawks and just looked, and WERE, better. Notice I didn’t say they were good, they were just better (all the more frustrating). They beat the Hawks in shots and possession (ended the first with a 60.6 CF% and the second with a 58%), and thanks to a fortunate bounce, they also had the lead after two. Tyler Toffoli banked it off Keith’s skate and it ricocheted in, more luck than anything, but in terms of how it happened that’s irrelevant. The Hawks made their typical fuck-ups on defense, such as having three guys behind the goal line chasing the puck, which left Kempe wide open in front of Crawford (who stopped the shot because of course he did). Dumb turnovers, useless power plays, these two periods had everything you’ve come to expect.

–More on those power plays, for a minute: the Hawks had three in quick succession in the second and of course converted on none. Patrick Kane was out there for the entirety of at least two of them (maybe all three, admittedly it’s a blur). And by the third try they were at least getting shots on net, but in the first two it was still a lot of passing around the perimeter—more puck movement? That’s the best we got?—but nothing of substance. They kinda sorta got better by the third one, but nonetheless the clown shoes remain firmly ensconced.

– And they got goalie’d again by a fucking nobody. The amount of times this happens has reached downright farcical levels. Calvin Petersen (huh?), who apparently the Hawks tried to draft, made 34 saves on 35 shots for a save percentage of .971. I want to be angry about it, but I’m just worn down by this situation. And for the record, Crawford was nearly as damn good. He ended with a .969 SV% (NICE) which is funnier and cooler so Petersen can go fuck off. And both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane should be embarrassed that they couldn’t score on this jamoke in the shootout.

– Guys, Brandon Saad may be good again! There’s a silver lining for ‘ya. He got moved to the top line midway through the game and scored the Hawks’ only goal off a gorgeous feed from Toews that hit his stick just at the top of the crease. In fact, the accompanying change of Schmaltz moving to a line with Anisimov and DeBrincat also worked. At first I was a little skeptical, given how slow Anisimov is, but the three of them had a CF% over 70 together, and Nick Schmaltz even shot the puck a couple times. I know I’m grabbing at any sliver of hope or positivity here, but it was sort of working, honest.

What else can one say about a game with idiotic defending, shitty power plays, and non-existent offense? Wait, I think I actually just summed it up right there…so no, there isn’t more one can say. This was their last “easy” game for a while, if you take the Wild or Capitals seriously and I can understand why you wouldn’t. But if they can’t even get an overtime or shootout win against the fucking Kings, there is every reason to dread those teams that may just be overrated, mediocre, or still hungover from last summer. Either way, it’s a long road ahead. Onward and upward.

Beer: Drumroll by Odell Brewing

Line of the Night: “They’re a very fragile team right now.” —Eddie O, but which team was he referring to?

Everything Else

Game #20 – Kings vs. Hawks Preview: A Chilling Vision

By Sam Fels 2265 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Kings 5-11-1   Hawks 7-8-4

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

NO MORE CALIFORNIA SONGS: Jewels From The Crown

It’s ok if you mourn the end of the Hawks Era. It can be a tough watch at times, especially when the memories of what a fine, oiled machine it was still so fresh. No team ever exits the spotlight gracefully, or at least it’s pretty damn rare. The fall is always painful. Especially in the callous world of the salary capped NHL, the tumble comes quick and the tide always wins. Maybe it was an impossible task set ahead of the Hawks, even without the mistakes they’ve made.

Then again, they could be the Kings.

It’s an interesting record. Since the Hawks last Cup win, they have three playoff wins. The Kings have one in the four seasons since their last win. They’ve missed the playoffs twice. And whereas the Hawks have tried to dance around their rebuild or collapse, the Kings have fallen face-first into theirs this year. Those days of Kobe and Kershaw wearing Kings’ jerseys are over, because this is a mess only identifiable by dental records. And given that it’s a hockey team, even that’s dicey.

They may provide a lesson in what happens when you cling too tightly to things that have past. The Kings for too long still tried to be a roving horde of barbarians that they thought won them two Cups, and watched as their team got slower and dumber while the league got faster and more skilled. Seriously, this outfit traded for Milan Lucic once. Firing the GM and coach is nice and all, but not if you’re not going to try anything new.

They also bought into fortune-stained results as reality far too much. Last year’s playoff berth was simply due to a magnificent Jonathan Quick season, which is not the norm or anything you should count on, and Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown shooting the lights out. No matter how much their fans bitched and whines that Kopitar should have been the MVP simply because no one stays up late enough to watch their dog-assed team, he was never likely to replicate that. And if he didn’t, he wasn’t taking Brown with him either. That’s what’s happened.

Jeff Carter is 33 now and looking it. Ilya Kovalchuk‘s style of impersonating waiting for a bus until a pass comes was never going to improve the team much, and it hasn’t. Beyond whatever this top-six is, and that’s clearly still very much a mystery, there’s simply nothing on the bottom-six. It’s more of the Kyle Clifford–Trevor Lewis Axis Of Yuck that it’s seemingly been forever.

The real treat is at the back of course, where Drew Doughty got his money and seemingly doesn’t care anymore. He’s playing with something called Derek Forbort, not that it matters. Alec Martinez and Jake Muzzin are starting to look like the remnants of that Big Mac you left on the coffee table at 3am last night and discovered this morning while guzzling gatorade. Dion Phaneuf is even more of a monolith than he was, which shouldn’t be possible but hey, L.A. is the land of fantasy and dreams!

Quick isn’t around to bail this out, which he’s only capable of once every four or five years. He’s out for a while. So is his backup Jack Campbell, which means they’ve brought Statler and Waldorf in to play goalie.

Robb Lake the GM seemingly has recognized all he’s built here is kindling (too soon?), and the sell-off might already be under way. This week he sent Tanner Pearson to Pittsburgh for Carl Hagelin, with Hagelin a free agent after the season. Whatever isn’t battened down should probably be sold at auction, so Muzzin, Martinez, Forbort, and Toffoli could and should be on notice. They’re the only ones whose contracts aren’t an atrocity.

For the Hawks, Marcus Kruger returns to the lineup after Brandon Davidson was informed that he’s hurt, replacing Dream Warrior on IR. SuckBag Johnson will sit. Alex Fortin remains out in favor of John Hayden. Sure. Corey Crawford will attempt to ride the momentum of Wednesday’s shutout, and against this decidedly broken squirt-gun of an offense you’d think that wouldn’t be too hard.

I don’t want to put too much on the Hawks, but there’s really no excuse to not get a regulation win tonight. The Kings are already getting the white flag out of the closet if not waving it already. They’re on their third-string goalie, maybe fourth. They’re slow and dumb, and the Hawks have done all right with the rare slow and dumb opponent you see in the NHL these days. As long as you don’t do anything too stupid, the Kings can’t really find a way to score enough to beat you. Don’t make this any harder than it has to be.

 

Game #20 Preview Suite

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I Make A Lot Of Graphs

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Game #20 – Kings vs. Hawks Spotlight: Those Who Do Not Learn…Go To The Kings Front Office

By Sam Fels 1951 0

Let us take you back to the spring of 2014. It’s not a happy trip for those of us around here, but it’s necessary. The Kings and Blackhawks played perhaps the best playoff series since The Great ’05 Lockout. The Kings come out on top by a pubic hair. They go on to destroy the Rangers for their second Cup in three years.

You might think they would have taken a close look at how they did that. You might think they’d want to keep replicating what they actually did on the ice, not what they did in between their own ears. You’d be wrong. The Kings beat the Hawks that spring by playing the Hawks’ game better than the Hawks. They were fast. They were dynamic. They scored a ton. They simply overpowered the Hawks on most nights of that series. Corey Crawford was helpless (so was Jonathan Quick, to be fair) to do anything about it. You may not see a series of that raw power again…until the Jets-Sharks West Final this spring, obvi.

We can demonstrate it better. They averaged 2.78 xGF/60 in that playoff run of ’14. That was a boost from 2.37 from the regular season. They averaged more attempts and shots, as well. Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Marian Gaborik, et all were skating everywhere.

They haven’t been above that 2.37 mark in the four seasons since. First Darryl Sutter, and then John Stevens returned the Kings to their plodding, simplistic ways that their players hated. And in a league that gets faster and faster, the Kings are getting left behind.

Check out some of the acquisitions since that Cup win, both from Dean Lombardi and Rob Blake (or Robb Lake, if you prefer): Milan Lucic, Vinny Lecavalier, Kris Versteeg, Luke Schenn, bringing back Rob Scuderi, Dion Phaneuf, Nic Dowd, Jarome Iginla, Devin Setoguchi, and an aging Ilya Kovalchuk. What about any of these names suggest faster and skilled? Or even smarter? The Kings seem to be playing a game that’s from 2002.

Moreover, since the 2011 draft, here are the NHLers the Kings have produced: Andy Andreoff, Nick Shore, Colin Miller, Tanner Pearson, Paul LaDue, Adrian Kempe, and that’s it. Say what you want about where the Hawks are now, but they’ve produced actual prospects. They’ve traded most of them, but at least they exist.

The Kings mistake was falling in love with the idea of what people thought the Kings were. They won the ’12 Cup on the back of Jonathan Quick with a heavy roster. It also didn’t hurt that the entire Western Conference that year took a step back. The Hawks were still reloading, the Sharks fell off their peak, the Canucks were a paper tiger beating up on a horrid division, and the Wings were done. It was ripe for the Kings to run through, which they did.

They fell in love with this image of an atom-smashing, meat-off-the-bone, thundering herd of a team that hockey media was only too happy to play up. But they were only that once. 2013 saw them get rolled by the Hawks in the Conference Final, and realize they couldn’t be viking warriors if they were going to win. They set out to be the Hawks. And they did it. And then for some reason, forgot all about it.

And now they’re on the precipice of a great fall. Not only is their window shut, there isn’t a path to open a new one. Kyle Clague won’t by himself. By the time they can summon another good team, Kopitar and Doughty will be well into their 30s. Carter already is. How do you extricate yourself from this? Being so bad that Kopitar and Doughty ask out? Who wants those contracts? The Kings dinner for the next 10 years is going to be a lot of salary for players moved elsewhere.

But banners hang forever. It’s a trade most fanbases would make. Perhaps all. The crash doesn’t have to be so hard, though.

 

 

Game #20 Preview Suite

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