Game #39 Preview Suite
Notes: Couple big misses for the Panthers as both Bjugstad and Trocheck are out…this was the lineup yesterday afternoon in Detroit, but Alex Petrovic could slot back in on defense…the top line is on fire, as Huberdeau has 16 points in his last 10 games and Barkov 13…Hoffman only has four in his last 12 games…Reimer has given up 10 goals in his last two starts…
Notes: Ward is going to start, even though Delia should…unlikely to see any changes with the Hawks on an actual winning-streak…expect to see Nilsson slot in where SuckBag was and where Kruger would normally go. Only other option is to slot Anisimov back to center and slide Kampf down, but that third line has been too effective to break up…
Game #39 Preview Suite
Back when the Hawks played games that mattered, or back when they all mattered, I used to take unique joy in games they simply gutted out. There weren’t that many, after all, the Hawks mostly won on talent and structure back then. But every so often, in a stretch of seven games in 11 days or back-to-backs or both or whatever it was, the Hawks would simply win a game because they decided they were going to. It was as if their will was just stronger than most other teams’. They could be sloppy, they could be tired, they could be hanging on by their nails, but they would almost always find a way.
So it was nice to visit that again, even if it doesn’t signify much.
The Hawks were not good tonight. Or maybe more accurately, they were very far from sharp and most likely exhausted. It was their seventh game in 11 days, and they were playing at altitude against a rested Avalanche team that’s at least got the most devastating line in hockey. No, it wasn’t art. But hey, it got there. And they got a goalie win out of a kid they may want to count on pretty heavily in the not-too-distant future.
Does it mean anything? Well, I don’t think it means nothing. When the Hawks spent 10-15 games or whatever giving up the first goal, or the first three, the fear or thought was that this team wasn’t giving its coach the time of day. That he was merely drawing up things and talking to players who weren’t interested or listening. Well, the Hawks had every reason to toss this one in the rubbish when they showed up, and a lot of teams would have. They didn’t, and though it wasn’t artful or close to it, they gave a shit. That’s at least a start.
Let’s to it…
The Two Obs
-Have to start with Collin Delia. He was the only reason the Hawks got a point, much less two. When Delia sees the play and the puck, he looks far smoother than he did in a cameo last year. He looks in control. The problem, and what he’ll have to work on, is tracking the puck. It felt like he had a hard time at points following the puck through bodies and legs at times, and on another night a team would have picked the open nets he was leaving. That could be nerves. That could be the frantic nature of the game. It’s just one game.
He should absolutely get the start Sunday. As we’ve said earlier, the Hawks have something of a free hit to get a look at a goalie they might just think is their one of the future. There’s no reason to not think that, given what he’s done at the AHL. He’s earned the right to at least get a look at this level. Give him Sunday’s start. If he plays well, give him the 27th. And keep giving them to him until he takes the role or shows that he needs more seasoning. There’s nothing to lose here, and Cam Ward has been around long enough to know the deal.
-The metrics are fucking ugly, but the one that sticks out is the third line. Kampf, Sikura, and Top Cat got high marks. Top Cat is not a third line player, as we’ve gone over at length, but this line is ticking. We wrote off Sikura after a few games last year and not making the team out camp, mostly because we’re assholes. But this looks to be where he’ll be best used. A middle-six winger who isn’t asked much but can take advantage of some sweetheart matchups. He’s been unlucky to not score yet, and I’d wager when he gets one he’ll get a few. There are some hands there.
-The power play didn’t score, but it still looks far more lively with Gustafsson running things. It comes from various angles, it doesn’t have Kane simply Carmelo-ing the puck, and tonight they even tried the high tip from Toews in the middle. What a world.
-The PK gets some stripes tonight, going five-for-five against a team with that kind of weaponry. It did it basically on scrambling on guts, but that’s enough.
-While Gustafsson flashes in the offensive zone to make you think that as a third-pairing bum-slayer on a team that’s worth a fuck he could outscore whatever his defensive problems are, Gustav Forsling simply sucks deep pond scum. He hardly ever flashes anything offensively, and that means you can’t justify how woeful he is in his own zone. For the Avs lone goal, he checked the wrong guy into the boards, and then stood behind the net and simply watched Kerfoot pass to the slot for Compher where he should have been standing.
Sure, give him the rest of the year to prove he can be anything, but I’ll tell you what I’m betting you’ll find out.
Onwards…
vs.
RECORDS: Hawks 12-19-6 Avalanche 19-10-6
PUCK DROP: 8pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago +
JOE WALSH SAID IT WAS COOL: Mile High Hockey
Complaining about the schedule usually seems on the petty side. Everyone has rough stretches and back-to-backs against a team that’s been waiting for them. They tend to even out. That said, the second of a back-to-back and in the middle of a three-in-four at altitude against an Avalanche team that didn’t play last night seems excessive. Maybe flying in late at night and playing straight away can be one of those things where you’re out before you notice the air is thinner. Anyway, complaint department closed. The Hawks try to keep this mini-streak of competence going against the best line in hockey. Joy.
There’s really no point in talking about the Avs beyond that top line. That’s what they are. Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel SapsuckerFrog are putting up boxcar numbers, with Rantanen and MacKinnon especially on pace for things the NHL hasn’t seen in a long time. Not only are they highly-skilled and jet-heeled, they’re big and can play with an edge. They’re an absolute nightmare. They’re underlyings aren’t that great, but they don’t have to be. Much like we discussed with Patrik Laine when the Jets were the foe, this is a line that’s always going to outshoot whatever the numbers suggest they “should” score. So good luck, Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom, especially after both took one upside last night.
The problem for the Avs, such as you can call it that, is that they haven’t found much under that line. It doesn’t matter when they’re scoring at this pace, but it could be a problem down the road. Only one forward after the top three has more than 20 points, and that’s Carl Soderberg, who is pretty much here to make up the numbers. Tyson Jost or Alex Kerfoot or J.T. Compher have not grabbed the brass ring yet, and one day the Avs will need that if they’re going to make serious noise when it counts. Otherwise you just have some competent foot soldiers here, convenient as the Avs have a big foot on the shoulder patches, like Matt Nieto or Colin Wilson or Sven Thank You Very Much Andrighetto.
On the blue line, one of their bounties for Matt Duchene has come good, and that’s Samuel Girard (always listen to the Big Dog because the Big Dog is always right). He has combined with Golf Cart Hero Erik Johnson to give the Avs a genuine shutdown pairing. Something they haven’t had since…Obi-Wan was merely a trainee himself. Tyson Barrie continues to do just enough to make you think he could be doing more, and Ian Cole is still wildly overrated. It’s a better blue line than it’s been, but it still has some miles to travel.
Phillip Grubauer was supposed to grab the #1 role from the soon-to-be-departed Semyon Varlamov, but it hasn’t happened. Varly is in a contract year, so it figures he would not be so easily displaced. That said, he’s been woeful in December, to the tune of .886. Grubs was excellent against the Canadiens last out, and he might get the chance to back it up tonight.
For the Hawks, you doubt there’d be too many changes. But there were rumblings that Colliton might roll Cam Ward out again, which would be a mistake. The Hawks have something of a glimpse at Collin Delia, and they should take it. If he’s your guy of the future, get every look you can. If it doesn’t work, hey he was just an injury-fill-in and return him to Rockford. If he takes it and runs, well then, you’ve got yourself something. Also Ward is going to turn back into Cam Ward at any moment, so why push it? Fuck, give Delia the next two. Remember what you are, and that’s a team that’s seven games under .500. You’re not getting back into this, so find out what you have when you can.
It’s a challenge given they played last night. Let’s see how up for it they are.
Game #38 Preview Suite
There were obviously huge hopes for Mikko Rantanen. He was the Avs first-round pick just three years ago. He comes in a big package, at 6-4 and 215 pounds. And he’s a mobile one at that. While the Avs may have been tempted to bring him to Denver immediately, they took their time and let him have a first season in the AHL. He dominated there, with 60 points in 52 games. At the age of 19, no less.
His first season only showed flashes, with 38 points. His second season was a breakthrough, with 84 points. Though some probably viewed that as just riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon and his MVP-worthy season. They probably weren’t expecting something historic.
But that’s what they’re getting.
Rantanen has 58 points through 35 games. At this rate, he would finish with 135 points. No one has managed that many since the Great Lockout of ’05. The best anyone’s done is Joe Thornton‘s 125 in the first season out of it. 135 would be the most since Mario Lemieux‘s 161 in ’95-’96. Just for giggles, MacKinnon is also on pace for 128, which would best anything since that mark as well, aside from Jaromir Jagr‘s 127 in ’98-’99.
Perhaps it’s not a huge surprise that someone is scoring at this rate. For the third straight season, scoring is up, and for the second straight it’s above three goals per game per team. It’s about 3.09 this year, and in the year Lemieux put up his 161 it was 3.14. It’s only a difference of about 2%. Of course, goalies weren’t anything like this, and we know teams are going to key on MacKinnon and Rantanen for the rest of the season.
There would be some claims that this is partially due to luck, and that may play a small role. The Avs are shooting 11.3% at even-strength when Rantanen is on the ice, up from 9.6% last year and 8.0% in his rookie year. But that’s just a steady increase, as Rantanen begins to feel the NHL game more and more. It’s also not an outlandish number. It only ranks 41st in the league. It’s certainly a number that can be maintained for a whole season, as the leaders are usually in the 12-14% area.
What might get Rantanen is the Avs are greatly outscoring the chances he and MacKinnon are providing. Their xGF/60 is nothing to write home about at 2.45. But the Avs are scoring at 3.87 per 60 minutes. It’s the 12th biggest difference among any player who has played 300 minutes at even-strength this season. Rantanen and MacKinnon will always, most likely, outscore what their chances suggest they “should” score, given their talent. But this might be excessive.
It’s the same story on the power play, where the Avs are shooting 19.3% when Rantanen is out there, but it’s hardly excessively more than the 18% they shot last year. The Avs have a xGF/60 of 7.14 on the power play, but are scoring per 60 on the power play at 10.9. Again, given the talent it’s not a surprise that the Avs can outshoot their chances on the power play, but by three goals per 60 minutes? It’s one of the higher differences in the league.
Still, it would be good for the league for a player, or two, to keep putting up boxcar numbers. It could use the publicity. It works out well for Rantanen too, as his entry-level deal expires after this season. The Avs thought they might save themselves by keeping him in the AHL for a year. It might force them to pay Auston Matthews/Connor McDavid money. That $6.3M they’re paying MacKinnon sure looks a bargain now, eh?
Game #38 Preview Suite
We traveled deep into the jungle, past his many followers who eyed us warily, to find the warlord Anthrax Jones. He was kind enough to grant us this, and we had to exit quickly before being disemboweled.
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So Rantanen and MacKinnon were awesome last year, and MacK could have easily won the Hart. But they’re both on points for 130+ points this year? Why is this line putting a foot in the ass of the world?
If you did an Inception-style deep dive into Don Cherry’s wettest dream, MacRantaskog would be in it: open mouth-kissing policemen, playing with Blue, and wearing suits made out of the furniture in Dom DeLuise’s opium den. Mikko Rantanen has evolved from Large Baby Deer into Jaromir Jagr’s blonde, blue-eyed second cousin. Defending Nate MacKinnon is the hockey equivalent of trying to catch a fire hose with a goldfish net, and Babe Landeskog’s good looks distract from the fact that he’s morphed into a Marian Hossa/Richard Kuklinski hybrid. This line has everything all the old school shitheads like to burp up every time some weepy Canucks fan starts pissing through their butthole about what a pretty finesse game the Sedins played. They’re talented, fast, and all three of them play with varying degrees of open hostility. I love them a lot.
It felt like the Avs wanted to transition from Varlamov in net to Phillip Grubauer, but Grubs hasn’t really grabbed that brass ring in limited appearances this season. Are they just going to have to ride it out with Varlamov?
Sure beats riding it out with Cal Pickard or the Hamburglar. Varlamov is who he is: occasionally spectacular, occasionally a Farrelly Brothers script. When he’s hot, he’s a top 3 goalie in the league. When he’s not, he’s every goalie the Flyers have run out since Ron Hextall. Grubauer has had his moments where he looks good and his moments where he looks like he’s playing behind Patrik Nemeth and Mark Barberio, because that’s what he’s doing. If the Avs are gonna do anything in May, they’re gonna need one of them to go full 2003 JS Giguere. With the top line doing what they’re doing they should be gobbling up the toughest opponents every night. Yet no one has been able to really benefit yet. Is this where Tyson Jost or someone else should come in?
In theory, yes. In practice, you’re relying on the entirety of your depth scoring to come from second year pros (Jost, Kerfoot, Compher), waiver wire guys (Andrighetto), An Actual Cyclops (Soderberg), and Colin Wilson. This year is “sit tight and see what we have with the young guys”, and next year is where they go out and overpay a UFA. Samuel Girard seems to have at least established himself in the top four, no?
The Duality Of Man: I love Girard and I love his game and I love his potential, yet I spent the late 90’s with a recurring grundle cramp because every time Sandis Ozolinsh touched the puck, my sphincter collapsed into itself at roughly the speed and density of a dying star. Girard may not have the offensive upside of Ozolinsh, and may not have the defensive downside of Ozolinsh, but I can foresee a scenario where he becomes Ozolinsh 2020. I’m too old for that type of gooch pain, so let’s hope he doesn’t. |
Game #38 Preview Suite
If you’re of a certain age, you think of the Colorado Avalanche as a villain, You were a fan when they carpetbagged their way into the Western Conference from Quebec, the fully formed monster simply bestowed upon Denver. You remember how they eliminated whatever chance those mid-90s Hawks teams had, which was basically miracle-ing their ass past the Red Wings somehow. You remember how they routinely bashed the brains in of the Hawks.
If you want to get more detailed you remember Tony Amonte shredding his knee in ’96, costing the Hawks any chance they had of winning that series. Or Gary Suter getting mugged at his own blue line to turn Game 5. Or Eddie Belfour furiously searching for the puck in double-OT as Sandis Ozolinch rammed it home to end that era for the Hawks.
You remember the two parades the Avs got, feeling like they never earned it. They weren’t worthy. It seemed so unfair.
Fear not, because since that era, there has been no team more irrelevant than the Colorado Avalanche.
The Avs got Ray Bourque his Cup in 2001. Their defense of it went to the conference final next year before losing to the Red Wings, again. And they haven’t been to a conference final since. 16 years and counting since the Avs saw the final four. Here’s a list of teams that have also not made a conference final in that time:
Florida Panthers
Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Islanders
That’s it.
In that time, you can hardly think of a player or two that define them. Joe Sakic was gone in 2009. Peter Forsberg before that. Does Matt Duchene really move the needle? Gabriel Landeskog? Not until Nathan MacKinnon shows up, and we still don’t know what that will be yet.
The Panthers and Jackets don’t have any pedigree. The Islanders’ is buried in the past. Too much longer, and the Avs will get to say the same as well.
Game #38 Preview Suite
Notes: There was talk that Head Coach Cool Youth Pastor would wheel Ward right back out there last night. That shouldn’t happen. A.) Ward will blow B). You’ve got a free hit here to see what Delia has for however long. If he can’t handle it, send him back down to season. If he runs with it, then you’ve got an out here. If he’s your guy going forward, let’s find out.
Notes: The Avalanche don’t really have 2nd-4th lines. It’s the top unit and then nine more forwards, and depending on the night their use will change…Kerfoot doesn’t have a point in his last eight…It feels like Wilson used to murder the Hawks, but those days seem to be over…Samuel Girard is kind of the shit…Laxative Log has six goals in his last five games…Zadorov is out tonight so Barberio is the likely replacement, though it could be Lindholm…
Game #38 Preview Suite
The Rockford IceHogs get to take it easy this weekend…sort of.
The Blackhawks AHL affiliate have just one game on the schedule. Of course, that game is in Rosemont with the Central Division-leading Chicago Wolves, who just happen to be the league’s highest scoring team.
The Hogs visit the Allstate Arena Friday night for another in a steady stream of Illinois Lottery Cup meetings with the Wolves. The two teams have split the first four meetings; after Friday, Rockford will clash twice more with the Wolves before the end of the calendar year.
The IceHogs have won both games in enemy territory: the Wolves have taken both contests at the BMO by wide margins. Coming into this game, Chicago is riding a six-game winning streak.
AHL scoring leader Brandon Pirri (17 G, 24 A) was recalled to Vegas this week, so he won’t be around to torment the IceHogs. Rookie defenseman Erik Brannstrom (4 G, 16 A) is also with the Golden Knights.
Rest assured, Chicago has plenty of other scoring options. Tops on that list is Daniel Carr (14 G, 19 A) , who has been on a tear since being sent back to the Wolves. Carr is currently on a three-game goal streak as well as a six-game point streak. He has 11 points (5 G, 6 A) in six games since returning to the Chicago lineup.
Rockford is still last in the league in terms of offense. They have raised that average to 2.33 goals per game (compared to 3.98 goals for the Wolves), but have failed to break the three-goal barrier in regulation play in 17 of their last 20 games.
Coach Derek King can take solace in the fact that his team has been making the most of its meager output. Rockford is 6-2-1-1 in its last ten games. The Hogs (.567 points percentage) are currently in a tie for fifth place in the division with Grand Rapids.
Pelletier Returns
Rockford has won three of its last four games, including a comeback victory at the BMO Harris Bank Center against Milwaukee. A welcome sight came that night in the form of William Pelletier, who made his season debut Wednesday. The speedy forward was a key contributor throughout last season. Off-season surgery kept him out of action for the first 29 games of the 2018-19 campaign.
Pelletier chipped in with 14 goals and 15 assists last season. His wheels were utilized on the penalty kill as well as at the offensive end, where the Hogs could employ him to chase down dump-ins and avoid icing calls. For a player on an AHL contract, Pelletier had the full confidence of then-coach Jeremy Colliton. He was a mainstay in the Rockford lineup.
Pelletier made an immediate impact in his first game back with the piglets, getting a secondary assist on Tyler Sikura’s goal against Milwaukee. His presence is going to be felt throughout the roster.
Campbell Represents
It was announced Thursday that defenseman Andrew Campbell has been named a captain of the AHL’s Western Conference All-Star team. The captaincy of both the Eastern and Western Conference teams is awarded by the league in recognition of outstanding leadership and service.
Campbell is not an offensive stalwart. In 24 games with the IceHogs this season, his only mark on the score sheet has been a goal against Manitoba October 28. Campbell has brought some stability to what is a young Rockford defense. With the Hogs penalty kill (85.4 percent kill rate) at sixth in the league and the defense giving up 2.80 goals per game (tied for fifth in the AHL), the 11-year veteran has to be cited as a steadying force on the back end.
Odds And Ends
Viktor Ejdsell sat out Wednesday’s game with a groin issue. He may be ready to play Friday at Chicago, but King wasn’t certain of Ejdsell’s status following the win over the Admirals.
The IceHogs are the least penalized team in the AHL. Rockford skaters spend an average of 10.67 minutes in the penalty box. Defenseman Dennis Gilbert is third in the league in fighting majors after getting into his fourth scrap of the season Wednesday. He and former Hogs defenseman Sam Jardine are among several players four major penalties.
Rockford has gone into overtime in 11 of its first 30 games. Only Milwaukee (14) and Iowa (13) have done so more often. The IceHogs are 0-4 in games decided by a shootout, having gone 1-10 in shootout attempts.
Big Weeknight Win
Wednesday, December 19-Rockford 4, Milwaukee 3 (OT)
In one of the more impressive rallies of the season, Rockford dug itself a three-goal hole. The Hogs then climbed out of said hole to post the victory.
The Ads quickly went out to a two-goal advantage. Anthony Richard scored on the power play 1:51 into the game, then doubled that lead on the subsequent faceoff when Jeremy Gregoire sent a shot over the glove of Hogs goalie Anton Forsberg.
Down 2-0 just 2:05 into the first period, things got worse. Milwaukee potted a second power play tally when Tyler Gaudet jumped on a loose puck in front of Forsberg’s net at 13:26.
Late in the first period, Rockford got on the board after Anthony Louis was twice denied by Admirals goalie Troy Grosenick. Jacob Nilsson backhanded the second rebound into the cage at the 19:24 mark. The Hogs skated into the locker room down 3-1.
Rockford was able to cut the lead to 3-2 with a strong second period. Tyler Sikura brought the puck into the offensive zone and sent a pass to William Pelletier, who was making his season debut. Pelletier made a sharp cross-ice pass to Dennis Gilbert at the top of the left circle.
Gilbert’s shot got knocked down in front of the Admirals net, where Sikura completed the scoring play. Throwing the biscuit into the basket at the 9:18 mark, Sikura snapped a seven-game goal drought and got the IceHogs back into the contest.
Rockford made it all the way back 4:20 into the third period after Sikura grabbed a loose puck in the Milwaukee zone and found Joni Tuulola in the high slot. Tuulola sent a pass to Darren Raddysh at the right point. Raddysh’s shot glanced off of the stick of Richard and over the blocker of Tom McCullom, who had relieved Grosenick in the second period, to knot the game at three.
The Hogs capped an incredible effort in Gus Macker Time to claim the third point. Alexandre Fortin picked off a pass attempt along the half boards in his own zone and turned on the jets. With Louis and Jan Rutta in tow, Rockford worked the 3-on-1 rush to perfection.
Fortin and Louis traded passes before Fortin hit Rutta at the left post. The one-timer zipped behind McCullom to bring the evening to a satisfying climax 1:51 into the extra session.
Rutta and Sikura, each with a goal and assist on the night, were the game’s first and second stars, respectively. Pelletier nabbed third star honors. Forsberg made 27 saves, keeping Milwaukee in check until the Hogs could climb back into contention.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura-William Pelletier
Anthony Louis-Jacob Nilsson-Jordan Schroeder
Terry Broadhurst (A)-Graham Knott-Nick Moutrey
Matheson Iacopelli-Nathan Noel-Henrik Samuelsson
Lucas Carlsson-Jan Rutta
Dennis Gilbert-Andrew Campbell (A)
Joni Tuulola-Darren Raddysh
Anton Forsberg
Power Play (0-2)
Louis-Nilsson-Schroeder-Carlsson-Rutta
Broadhurst-Fortin-Samuelsson-Sikura-Raddysh
Penalty Kill (Milwaukee was 2-4)
Sikura-Broadhurst-Rutta-Carlsson
Knott-Moutrey-Gilbert-Campbell
Pelletier-Noel-Tuulola-Raddysh
Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for frequent commenting on the doings of the IceHogs throughout the season.
