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Game #47 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 12, 2019 1234 0

Game #47 Preview Suite

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Game #47 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 12, 2019 1446 0

Notes: Patches may be playing better but he sure does drag down that top line’s possession with Reilly Smith on the shelf…Wild Bill has one goal in his last 10…Fleury wasn’t very good in December but is managing a .930 in his four January starts…Smith and Eakin are out, and Haula remains a long-term casualty…Tuch has an eight-game point-streak…get ready for Olczyk to slobber all over the fourth line, especially if Kunitz plays on the Hawks’ fourth…

Notes: Slater Koekkoek was at the morning skate but it’s hard to see where he slots in just yet…Seabrook probably comes back in, with Jokiharju flipping to his off-side. The other pairings have worked enough to keep for a bit…if they’re keeping Anisimov on the second line and not putting Top Cat there for defensive reasons, you know that the Hawks have never seen an analytic number ever…given how they’re giving Caggiula every chance to prove he’s anything, maybe they’ll do the same for Koekkoek.

Game #47 Preview Suite

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This Is Probably Patrick Kane’s Best Season

By Sam Fels January 11, 2019 2406 0

That sounds weird to say, given he already has a Hart Trophy and all and was leading the league in scoring the year before that before his collarbone went TWANG! And yes, I’m one of those who doesn’t really like saying anything nice about the little fucker at all, but to deny what he’s doing on the ice this year would simply be a miscarriage of our job here.

Kane’s just about on pace to match his 106-point total from his MVP season, though not quite to the 46 goals he put up that year (he’s somewhere around 42-43). But at the top, the difference for me is the context. In ’15-’16, he played basically every shift with Artemi Panarin, himself an All-Star caliber forward.

This year? The teammate he’s shared the most time with is Artem Anisimov, and boy have we written that book. And most of that has been with Arty on a wing, not really his strength (if he has one). Then it’s Dylan Strome, who looks like he might turn into a pretty nice player but is still very much in the figuring-it-out phase. Then Brandon Saad, and then Nick Schmaltz. This is not a murderer’s row of talent, exactly.

And yet Kane is actually creating more and better chances this year, with less possession mind you, than he did in his MVP year. The Hawks xGF/60 with Kane out there is 2.31. It was 2.1 three years ago, though he did even better last year at 2.56 (Kane’s career-low 9.5 SH% last year probably kept him from having another 90-point season or so).

Kane’s individual high-danger chances per 60 is the highest it’s been since 2013-2014, which came on a much better team that opened up things for him a little better. He’s mostly having to do it himself this year, and clearly that’s not a problem for him. Just his scoring-chance per 60 at evens mark is one of the highest of his career, though not reaching the peak of ’13-’15. But again, those were different teams that just willed possession and chances because it felt like it.

A big difference from the past couple seasons for Kane is that he’s firing more on the power play. In the first part of the season it was because he was basically the only one who could, given the incompetence of the whole thing. Now it’s because that’s actually open. He’s taking 16.1 shots per every hour of power play time, which is right in line with where he was in that Hart season. It goes right along with him being on pace to set a career-high in power play assists, and Alex DeBrincat thanks him (it’s 22 set in ’08-’09, and he’s at 12 now and rapidly climbing).

Kane’s been able to get as many shots and chances for himself and his teammates despite those teammates being worse and this being just about the worst possession season of his career. Kane’s never been a great possession player, usually somewhere around the team-rate. But as McClure likes to say, he’s one of the few players in the league who’s a “bad-shot maker.” He doesn’t need the same chances as others to put up the same points, even if he does create those chances anyway. He’s basically hockey’s version of Steph Curry, in that anyone else playing this game would drive a coach to the bottle/hemlock, but he makes it work (no if only he were half the person…)

This is the first season that Kane is under water in terms of Corsi, and his xGF% is a downright shit-tastic 41.6%. But that’s more due to the bewildered blue line behind him, the shorter talent next to him, and really that Kane’s never been a great defensive player and has never had to or will have to be. Playing him with other defensively flawed players is only going to exacerbate that.

If you want the biggest reason the Hawks can’t “tank” other than moral or financial obligations, real or imaginary, is that Kane is probably going to be a major reason why they can’t be bad enough. He won’t get any MVP talk this year because the Hawks suck, and the theory would be they could such just as easily without him. Without him, they’d probably be far and a way the worst team in the league.

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – January 10th

By Sam Fels January 10, 2019 1123 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Knights – 9pm

Two of the triple threat atop the Pacific meet on the Strip tonight, and the games against each other might decide who comes out on top in the end. Which is important, because none of these three teams want to have to go through the other two in the playoffs, which not finishing first would entail. With a regulation win the Sharks would leap over the Knights into second and one point behind the Flames. After losing to those said Flames, the Sharks have won their last four, scoring 20 goals in the process. The Knights have won their last seven. So yeah, two teams playing pretty well here.

Second Screen Viewing

Predators vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Columbus is starting to fall off the pace of the Caps and Penguins in the Metro, and have the bewildering Islanders right on their ass now. Which is probably infuriating for them, as they’ve won seven of ten and yet can’t seem to gain any ground on either those in front of them or behind them. The Preds have to back up last night’s scratchy OT-win again, though they seem to be getting their road problems solved through greater health.

Other Games

Capitals vs. Bruins – 6pm

Maple Leafs vs. Devils – 6pm

Islanders vs. Rangers – 6pm

Stars vs. Flyers – 6pm

Hurricanes vs. Lightning – 6:30

Canadiens vs. Blues – 7pm

Jets vs. Wild – 7pm

Panthers vs. Oilers – 8pm

Coyotes vs. Canucks – 9pm

Senators vs. Kings – 9:30

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Our Real Halfway Awards

By Sam Fels January 10, 2019 1809 0

Time to check in on what the NHL individual awards should be. If you’re new, first of all what are you doing here this place is nuts!, and second every so often I like to look at what the NHL awards should be if voters actually paid attention to what matters. There isn’t as much deviation as you’d think from how it will go, but there is some. So let’s get in up to the elbow.

Hart Trophy – Nikita Kucherov

This will seem simple. Again, an MVP award always settles into an annoying debate about whether it’s simply a “Player Of The Year” award, which it should be, or a “Most Valuable To His Team” as if you could somehow measure that. To me, it’s the former. And even that can end in debate, because in hockey it’s hard to separate what a player is doing himself from what linemates might be helping him with.

And then you see Kucherov is on pace for 135 points this year and the whole discussion seems kind of dumb.

Sure, he’s on a line with Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos, and that doesn’t hurt. It would also be the problem with handing it to Mikko Rantanen or Nathan MacKinnon, who play with each other. Johnny Gaudreau has Sean Monahan. I’m not sure any of this matters, as the production is the production.

Again, 135 points. Seems pretty clear.

Honorable Mentions – Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane

I have this feeling that before the year is out, Run CMD is going to make some insane run to try and drag his scrapyard-constructed Oilers team into the playoffs, and might end up with 130 points himself. And he probably won’t have nearly the help that the others do, unless Leon Draisaitl ends up on his line again. And that didn’t prevent his first Hart Trophy. If you need someone who’s doing it by himself, and we’ll write about this more tomorrow, it’s the local option. Kane has spent most of his year playing with either Nick Schmaltz, who was royally fucking up his free agent year, or Dylan Strome who is still below 80 NHL games and is very much finding his way, or the totem pole that is Artem Anisimov. And he’s sixth in scoring on his way to 100 points. So he has a serious case.

Calder Trophy – Elias Pettersson

I’m only putting this in here because the only Canucks fan in my life hasn’t stopped bitching that I didn’t include this in our quarter season assessment, and I’m hoping doing it now will get him off my goddamn back. Also, there isn’t any debate here and this is easy. Everyone gets to walk with this Elias, although I suppose if Collin Delia maintains a .940 SV% the rest of the season, maybe we’ll be assholes and try and build him up.

Also Elias allows for even more jokes besides wrestling ones…no seriously, Dude, he’s a Pettersson with a record.

Honorable Mention – fuck off, there’s no one else

Selke Trophy – Anthony Cirelli

Yes, this is where we get weird. This is where we try and find our Jacob deGrom/Felix Hernandez Cy Young, where a victory for the metrics punches through the old guard. It won’t ever happen, and Patrice Bergeron is going to win this again especially as he’s been a point-per-game, and you can’t win this award without scoring. Which is annoyingly dumb, because nowhere is scoring mentioned in the term, “Best Defensive Forward.” The idea is to play defense.

So we’re opting for Cirelli, who is top-five in relative attempts-against, shots-against, and scoring-chances against, and that’s relative to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who don’t give up any chances and shots anyway. So he’s basically muzzling everything across from him to the point of zesting it. Sure, he’s not taking the hardest assignments and his zone starts have him kind of in the middle of the pack, but no one gets anything going against him and his line.

And he’ll be no closer to winning this award than I am.

Honorable Mention – Fredric Gaudreau, David Kampf

Totally serious on the last one. All the Hawks do is bleed high-danger chances against, and Kampf somehow prevents them. He’s in the top five in relative high-danger chances against.

Norris Trophy – Erik Karlsson

There are plenty of reasons that E.K. is wonderful, and one of them is that he sits comfortably at the nexus of crusty hockey thinking and forward hockey thinking, as oxymoronic of a term as that might be. Generally this goes to the d-man who scores the most, and Karlsson is currently fifth in the league in that and has been zooming up the charts. Don’t be shocked if he ends up leading before too long. He also has glowing metrics, in the top five in attempts-share and shots-share and chance-share. He’s utterly dominating play, but you wouldn’t know it from all the people bitching about the Sharks perceived lack of success because their goaltending sucks. You don’t have to overthink this. He’s the best d-man on the planet and he’s who the Hawks should be planning to throw a monster truck of money at this summer instead of Artemi “I’ll Wait Over Here” Panarin.

Honorable Mention – Dougie Hamilton

Rod Langway Award – Niklas Hjalmarsson

This is what the award would be if it was just about defense, which I don’t think it has to be but if you were to split it. And it hurts to put this, because Connor Murphy has been good here this year with little help. But Hammer starts more shifts than just about anyone in his own zone, and is far and away getting the play up the ice more than anyone who starts as often in his own end than he does. Sure, it helps to play with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but let’s not punish.

Honorable Mention – Josh Manson

Vezina Trophy – John Gibson

The Ducks are just as terrible of a defensive team as the Hawks. They give up just about the same amount of scoring chances and high-danger chances per game. Whereas the Hawks have already broken two goalies, Gibson is carrying a .923. The Ducks suck on the penalty kill too, and Gibson is maintaining a .904 SV% there. He’s somehow kept a decrepit Ducks squad being piloted by an actual undercooked ham around the playoff picture. It’s his to lose.

Honorable Mention – Ben Bishop, Freddie Andersen

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Game #46 – Predators 3, Hawks 3, Predators Win Paint Huffing Duel – Got Stuck on Thoughts that I Know Ain’t Facts

By Rose Rankin January 9, 2019 1818 0

The Hawks had no business keeping this game as close as they did. The Predators should be wondering what witch doctor they crossed who kept them from closing this out way earlier and robbing them of both points. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– For about the first three minutes the Hawks were outshooting the Predators and looked in control. Nashville quickly righted that situation and within what felt like a nanosecond, Colton Sissons (who sounds like some asshole high school quarterback from Texas) scored to take a 1-0 lead. The Hawks did score a power play goal in the first but then gave the lead back in what actually was a nanosecond (OK, it was like eight seconds later). A four-minute penalty was thrown in there, and with the exception of a solid power play the Hawks got domed in the first—behind in shots (17-13), goals (2-1), and possession (56-44 CF%).

– The Hawks managed to pull their shit together in the second and killed off the remainder of the four-minute penalty. They kept taking dumb penalties through the period, but Jonathan Toews scored a short-handed goal on Kampf’s tripping of Viktor Arvidsson right at the end. The PK looked very shaky at times but not at that moment. In fact, the pass from Kruger was perfectly placed as Toews was streaking into the slot, and his precision getting it past Rinne while moving at top speed was a thing of beauty.

– We’ve been saying for basically the entire season that Alex DeBrincat is not a fucking third liner, and apparently Coach Cool Youth Pastor came around to that notion today, because Top Cat was finally back on the top line. And what did he do? Scored a goal and had seven shots on the night. The goal was on the power play off a pass from Kane, and the entire play showed once again that Kane and DeBrincat work extremely well together, and every day that they’re not permanently on a line together is a crime against basic common sense. No, playing with Kane wouldn’t put him on the top line but the point is that DeBrincat should be in the top six. Don’t bother with tonight’s experiment with Saad on the stupid third line that is already pretty useless with Kampf and Caligula. Put Saad back with Toews and Kahun, and play DeBrincat-Strome-Kane. That’s a solid top six. I feel like I keep saying some iteration of this into the ether and you know doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. Thanks a lot, fucking Hawks.

– Anyway, they didn’t have many power play chances but the one they scored on had the movement we’ve been braying about over here, along with Toews in the high slot drawing defenders, which left Top Cat open for Kane’s pass. So maybe all that repetition isn’t totally insane.

– By the third it was pure luck that kept the Hawks in it. Nashville had a 58 CF% in the period and it was a whiffed shot and an untimely post that kept them from taking a two-goal lead. And they managed to let Wide Dick Arty score, so you know there was some combination of bad breaks and foolish mistakes. It only took about a minute into OT for Filip Forsberg to put it away with his second of the night.

– Henri Jokiharju had a solid return tonight, with a 63 CF% and a team-leading 23 CF% Rel. It’ll be interesting to see how Colliton maneuvers the defense when Seabrook returns from his bout of acute suck-itis that kept him out tonight.

– On a bit of a side note, the intermission segments on the broadcast tonight really epitomized how this league has no fucking clue who or what it is, or what it wants to be. The first intermission had a (very staged) segment with PK Subban handing out sweaters to a couple teammates, and they were made from recycled plastic supposedly taken out of the ocean. I’m skeptical of some greenwashing here, but nevertheless it featured timely themes, a black player, and was generally forward-thinking/feeling. Then, in the second intermission, we got Mike Milbury and Keith Jones showing grainy, shitty footage of themselves fighting fellow oafs back in the day and guffawing about how hilarious those days were. It couldn’t have been more backwards-looking or contradictory if someone had set out to make these segments as jarring as possible. Clearly there are multiple voices trying to direct these broadcasts, but the old guard has not lost that battle yet.

Back to the Hawks, they were fortunate to get one point since it was really Collin Delia bailing their asses out with a couple big saves in the third that even allowed them to get to OT. It won’t mean much in the end, but we’ll take it, right? Onward and upward.

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Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Preview/Red Point Training: Fully Operational Death Star

By Sam Fels January 9, 2019 1782 0

vs.

RECORDS: Predators 26-15-3 Hawks 16-22-7

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

THIRD MAN HANGERS-ON: On The Forecheck

Not exactly the easiest week for the Hawks. Sunday saw them face the hottest team in the league, a test which they passed. Then they got the Pacific leaders, who let them hang around for two periods before it was swirly time in the third. Tonight it’s one half of the Central’s twin towers, and then Saturday night it’s the defending Western champs who are tied with the team that just held the Hawks at arm’s length on Monday. Boy, the Devils and Rangers can’t get here fast enough!

It’s been a wonky year for the Preds, so the fact that they’re still sitting one point off the Jets, though having played two games more, is a real work by Peter Laviolette. Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, PK Subban, Kyle Turris (still) have all missed serious time, and yet here they are. Unfortunately for the Hawks, all but Turris are back in the lineup and this is just about as close to the full Predators experience as they’ve been since the beginning of the season.

To wit, a team that had won two of 10 road games before Monday went out and promptly destroyed the Leafs in Toronto, winning 4-0 and holding perhaps the biggest arsenal in the league to 18 shots. So yeah, that’s not exactly encouraging for tonight.

The Preds had something of a dip in December, as both Juuse Saros and Ol’Shit Hip fell off their hot pace. Which makes you think it was a structural thing, and it might have been as without Subban you’re only going to get away with playing Dan Hamhuis and his walking stick as a second pairing player for so long. Still, even with that, the Preds are third in the league in shots against overall per game and sixth in scoring-chances against at even-strength. They’re top-10 in both team Corsi-percentage and scoring-chance-percentage. The one area they’re deficient is they’re 18th in high-danger-scoring-chance-percentage, mostly because they don’t create a ton. That is probably a product of not having Arvidsson and Forsberg for a while, because this is a team that has always depended on its top line to do most of the damage. That has been corrected now.

It’s still perhaps the most devastating blue line in the league, with all of Ellis, Josi, and PK among the premier puck-movers in the league (sidenote: Has anyone in recent history racked up a more impressive social resume than Lindsey Vonn? If she were a dude she’d be Tony Stark. Get it, girl). This is clearly their strength.

Also, in four games in January they’ve given up four goals in regulation, with three of those somehow coming to the Red Wings. So yeah, the goalies are probably fine now. Go get ’em, Hawks!

For the Hawks, the question will be tonight where does the returning, conquering hero Henri Jokiharju slot in. The Hawks may have caught a break in that Brent Seabrook is sick, which would give them shelter to keep The HarJu on his normal side, on a shielded third-pairing, and keep the other two pairings together, as they’ve been working. No word on whether Colliton/Bowman spiked Seabrook’s nachos-for-four last night at Four Moons.

That will be for one night, but the Hawks are going to have to answer that question soon enough. The simplest and best solution would be to pair Keith and Seabrook again, but make that your third pairing. Then you can slot the four of Dahlstrom, Murphy, Gustafsson, and HarJu any way you want. You can leave Dahlstrom and Murphy to do the hard work-which they haven’t been as good at of late but it’s the best you’ve got–and let Gustafsson and Jokiharju bumslay a bit. Or you just divide it up evenly with Dalshtrom letting Jokiharju freelance more and Murphy doing the same for Gustafsson and Keith and Seabrook take the rest. This is the easiest and cleanest solution, and hence it’ll be the one the Hawks don’t take.

No word on what goalie is going tonight as it was a pretty informal get-together this morning. You would think it would have to be Delia, but we keep saying that. The other change is John Hayden is in for Chris Kunitz. Contain your excitement, we just mopped.

Not much to say here. The Hawks have played the Preds tough since giving up the first four goals to them in their first meeting in Nashville, and beat them there later. But this is the full Preds death squad minus Turris. And with something to play for. Might want to hide under your seat for this one.

Game #46 Preview Suite

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Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Spotlight: Ryan Ellis And They Do It Too

By Sam Fels January 9, 2019 1555 0

In a vacuum, what would you say about a team giving a 29-year-old defenseman an eight-year extension at $6.25M per year? Crazy right? No d-man is any good past 33 or 34 unless they’re a chiseled god like Zdeno Chara, right? Fit to be tied, you’d say! Pure ridiculousness! Well, you’re not the Nashville Predators, who did just that with Ryan Ellis before this season, and he’ll be that well-paid until he’s 37. Not bad work if you can get it.

On the surface, you can see it. For most of his career, Ellis has been a nifty, second-pairing guy who really pushed the play, anchored a second power play unit, and got you around 35 points. He’s also right-handed, which NHL GMs consider something around tritium levels of valuable on their blue line. Not bad. The past couple years he’s even moved up to the top pairing with Roman Josi, perhaps being the only top pairing in the league with two players that are swift and get up the ice, and not the yin-and-yang of pusher and center-fielder you’ve seen in places like here. Certainly worked out for the Predators, who have gotten a Final appearance and a division crown out of it.

Still, look a little deeper, and it’s not as rosy. This season. Ellis has exclusively been with Josi, and they’ve been ok together. But in the limited sample that Ellis has been away from Josi, he’s been awful. 40.5 CF%, 37.5 GF%, 41.8 SCF%. And that’s not uncommon. Last year, the number with and without Josi are much more even, but that was only in half of a season as Ellis missed the first half with injury. So they have about as much sample of Ellis being useful without Josi as they do of him being utterly helpless. Two years ago, the first time Ellis was pretty exclusively with Josi, it was much the same as this year as his Corsi and scoring-chance percentages dip 5-10% without Josi.

Still, much like we discussed with Jake Guentzel on Sunday, if you sign Player A knowing he’s going to play with Player B, who’s probably responsible for making Player A what you’re paying him to be, it’s not a huge issue. There’s no reason to anticipate that Ellis won’t be playing with Josi the next few years, and both are a few years away from when you really start to worry about the aging process.

Even next year doesn’t provide much of a cap problem for the Preds. Ryan Hartman and Kevin Fiala will be RFA, but neither is going to break the bank you wouldn’t think. The Preds will have about $15 million in space, which will easily accommodate those two.

It’s the following year where things might get a touch messy. As that’s when Josi is unrestricted. And he’s going to require just a touch more than the $4 million per year he’s been making. Certainly north of Ellis’s number is a gimme, and his agent might be looking at PK Subban’s $9M and say, “Well, my guy is playing on the top pair here and shielding that guy, so gimme gimme gimme.” Are the Preds really going to pay half their blue line somewhere between $22-25 million a year? ? Or more? At the moment they’ll have room for that, but they’ll also one day have to have more than just a top line.

It appears the Predators didn’t ask themselves very hard whether or not Josi can carry a host of other d-men to impressive metrics and use, because it would appear for all the world he can. Could they have just slotted Subban there next year and found someone else to bum-slay with Matthias Ekholm? Would that have freed up enough cash to make a real splash like Matt Duchene or Mark Stone, something they might need to get past the Jets or Sharks if they fail to this season?

They aren’t asking yet, but they might be.

Game #46 Preview Suite

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Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Q&A: The One And Only…Well, A J.R.

By Sam Fels January 9, 2019 1585 0

J.R. Lind is always our Preds guy. Follow him on Twitter @JRLind.

The Predators have only won two of their last nine on the road. What’s the story there?

It’s hard to discount the injuries the team had to deal with in the last bit of 2018: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, P.K. Subban and Colton Sissons all missed significant time and now Kyle Turris is out for a bit. The Preds were also due for a bit of a come-down, particularly on the road, where they started out so hot. The good news is guys are starting to come back and the team looked as good as they’ve looked all season Monday against Toronto with a 4-0 win and holding the Leafs to 18 shots.

Both Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros had something of a rough go in December. So does that make it a team problem more than the goalies having a down stretch?

Based on both guys’ last few starts, it seems like it was a general team issue, particularly on the back end. Subban’s injury led to Laviolette having to do some unusual things with the pairings, occasionally splitting up Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi and sticking, say, Dan Hamhuis – an extremely good third pair guy, but a little long in the tooth – on the first pair or playing Matt Irwin with Mattias Ekholm and so on. Since the calendar turned, the team is 3-0-1 and Saros has given up one goal in his last two starts and Rinne is coming off that shutout. I suspect Chicago will get Rinne as a divisional foe with Columbus coming on the other side of the back-to-back, but both guys have looked a lot better as the injured players have returned.

How much of this is Arvidsson and Forsberg being out?

Losing your two top goal-scorers is going to hurt any team, and then add into what those guys bring physically – Forsberg probably doesn’t get enough credit for that part of his game and Arvidsson is a stellar forechecker – and Nashville had to make some adjustments. It also had a ripple effect down the lines, with guys like Ryan Hartman and Phil Di Giuseppe actually seeing time on Ryan Johansen’s wing. But for a team that expects to play into June, getting more minutes for depth guys isn’t necessarily a bad thing and the extra ice time helped jumpstart Kevin Fiala, who had looked moribund early.

What will the Preds be looking for at the deadline?

Similar to last year with Hartman, a middle-six or bottom-six wing with a little size or physicality. The rash of injuries this year really put into focus how important depth can be and the series against the Jets last year – and it seems inevitable Winnipeg and Nashville will face-off again – the Preds did get pushed around a little. They don’t need a big, splashy move and I’m not saying Wayne Simmonds, but Wayne Simmonds.

Game #46 Preview Suite