Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw – Fast Kicking, Low Scoring and Ties

By Rose Rankin 1292 0

As we expand our remit here at FFUD it gives us the chance to pester you with other non-hockey stuff that we like, such as European soccer (you’ve seen it before with English Premier League pieces from our fearless leader). To that end, the quarterfinals of Champions League are coming up in two legs over two weeks. And, despite the fact that my personal rooting interest (Napoli, Serie A) is out, these will still be some quality matches plus there’s the chance for some schadenfreude (at least for me, although unlikely). Let’s line them up:

Tottenham vs. Manchester City

1st leg: Tuesday, 4/9, 2pm central

2nd leg: Wednesday, 4/17, 2pm central

These teams are going to play each other three times in 12 days, with the first two matches being Champions League quarterfinals. Seeing as familiarity breeds contempt it should automatically be interesting, and the Spurs will be bordering on desperate to win this first match to prevent things from getting out of hand. On paper Man City is the better team, and they’ve pulled away from Tottenham in the Premier League table. However, at this very same time last year an equally dominant Man City got their ass kicked out of the quarters by Liverpool, so it’s not like it couldn’t happen. This first match will also be at Tottenham’s long-awaited finally-open new stadium, which they played at (and won) for the first time earlier this week. So maybe there will be some adrenaline rush with that. The bigger issues for them are staying healthy (at least Harry Kane and Dele Alli are both back), and their goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris, not being a sieve. He played pretty shitty against Liverpool recently and they’re comparable to Man City, so it sort of feels like a matter of time until Pep Guardiola’s squad gets to him.

Prediction: Manchester City

 Liverpool vs. Porto

1st leg: Tuesday, 4/9, 2pm central

2nd leg: Wednesday, 4/17, 2pm central

This one is going to be ugly for Porto. Liverpool is good—really good, and even when they aren’t that good they still find a way to pull shit out of their ass and/or take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes (Napoli had to score one goal…one fucking goal to get past them in the group stage and couldn’t do it but it’s their own fault and I’m not bitter and THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED). Anyway, Porto may sneak in a goal or two but likely it’ll be over quickly.

Prediction: Liverpool

Ajax vs. Juventus

1st leg: Wednesday 4/10, 2pm central

2nd leg: Tuesday, 4/16, 2pm central

Ajax (pronounced “eye-ex”) is having a better run than I figured they would. They’re dominant in the Eredivisie in the Netherlands, but I definitely pooh-pooh’d their chances in Champions. Which gives me hope that they can get past Juventus (pronounced “you-vent-oos”, and no I’m not trying to be a dickhead I’m honestly trying to be helpful with some of these). They probably won’t, seeing as Juve’s entire motivation for existing is to win Champions League and it’s literally the exact reason they brought Cristiano Ronaldo over (and it’s been working out for them thus far). Juve’s backfield has been beat up but the bigger issue was that Ronaldo himself was injured. But as of today, their manager Massimiliano Allegri hinted pretty damn strongly that Ronaldo would play, and it would be nigh impossible to imagine him not taking part in what is his entire job description, i.e., winning in Champions. I would love nothing more than to see Juve lose this round, but I doubt it. They’ve got too much depth and keep getting bailed out by CR7 even when they don’t deserve to win.

Prediction: Juventus

Manchester United vs. Barcelona

1st leg: Wednesday 4/10, 2pm central

2nd leg: Tuesday, 4/16, 2pm central

This one has the potential to be the most interesting match-up of the round. Barca is leading La Liga, forward Ousmane Dembele may be back if not for the first leg than by the second (after tearing a hamstring in their ass-whooping of Lyon in the last round), and oh yeah Lionel Messi’s on this team. They played earlier this week and scored twice in extra time to get it to a draw, and although that was not against Man United so perhaps not apples to apples here, it should go without saying they can score (Messi is the leading goal scorer in Champions so far). And what about Man United? Since jettisoning international toxin Jose Mourinho as their manager they’ve been the annoyingly successful team you probably know from that one obnoxious acquaintance you had in college who had to be different and not watch American football. You know that guy—he was always a Manchester United fan. Anyway, they were a surprise coming out of the round of 16 after losing their first match to PSG, but they came back with a 3-1 win for the second match and since that was their away game, they ended up winning on away goals (a tie-breaker function—both teams scored a total of 3 goals over 2 games). So Barca is really the better team but Man United may be the hotter team…honestly I’m pissed for adding a prediction to these because it’s really tough to choose on this one. Luckily I’m under no obligation to be right.

Prediction: Barcelona

 

 

 

Everything Else

Game #81 – Stars vs. Hawks Preview/Mani Pedi: Gone Til October

By Sam Fels 1599 0

vs.

RECORDS: Stars 42-31-7   Hawks 35-33-12

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

MOVING ON: Defending Big D

And now the wake. Or shiva. Or whatever other ceremony where the drinking after the service takes place (some would call it life). The Hawks will close out the home schedule tonight, and despite what they told you before and during the season, for the second straight year it won’t be a launch point to something bigger and more exciting. This will be it. They get the 41 here and no more. There will be plenty of time for commiseration, but for now maybe it’s better to enjoy Alex DeBrincat, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane one more time on the ice.

Because if you think about it, there are some pretty heavy questions hanging over this one. A lot of players will be dressing in red for the last time. Could one or two of them be Brent Seabrook and/or Duncan Keith? There is a case to move each of them on. The one for Seabrook is much easier to make but much harder to execute. Keith still has a role to play here if he both accepts what he is now and more importantly accepts who’s in charge. He doesn’t seem inclined to do either. The argument about both can wait. If this is to be the last time they’re seen together here, it will be sad. One or both will take a significant chunk of Blackhawks history with them when and if they go.

Others are more sured of the exit. Chris Kunitz is headed for retirement. So might be Cam Ward. Marcus Kruger will be elsewhere, as his larger-than-you-think contributions to two Cups are yellowing and green with mold as time goes on. We can only hope Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling are never seen here again. John Hayden has a great career in Germany awaiting him. Has Brendan Perlini earned another contract? Will Brandon Saad be trade bait again? Will Artem Anisimov? More than a few, to be sure.

The other sting about tonight is the Hawks only need to look at the other bench to see what could have been. Could the Hawks be where the Stars are? Maybe not that high, but they could be much closer if they’d done a couple things like Dallas did. What if the Hawks had hired their new voice to replace a legend in the summer and given him a fresh start instead of tossing him in midstream in the busiest portion of the schedule? What if they’d opted for Anton Khudobin instead of Ward? The Hawks’ higher end has been better than the Stars, and by some margin. The middle and bottom has not. Instead you got Brandon Manning and Stan Bowman lurking behind the curtain like Claudius, except this time he didn’t let Hamlet get the drop on him.

The Stars did these things, and the Stars won the games they had to, which the Hawks did not. Because of that, they get to use tonight as a rest-up. Jamie “I Don’t Know Which Way Is South” Benn, Mats Zuccarello, and Roman Polak didn’t even make the trip. Ben Bishop is continuing to rest whatever fell off of him this time and is geared to be ready for the playoffs. Which could come against any of the top three in the Central, though all the Preds have to do is beat the Hawks tomorrow night to clinch. That said, given they only have one line and the Stars defensive ways and Bishop’s form when healthy, that could get sticky for everyone’s darling in yellow in a hurry. But that’s a matter for next week, and not a matter for the Hawks at all.

They’ll wrap it up tonight. They told you they wouldn’t be. The real drama comes next, just not the type they promised.

 

Game #81 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #81 – Stars vs. Hawks Spotlight: Jim Montgomery And The New Wave

By Sam Fels 1481 0

We’ve often bitched about the Old Boys Club that NHL coaches are chosen from. Same goes for GMs. It feels like you only get an NHL job if you had one before, or served as an assistant for years. We think the game could use new ideas, and they need to come from new places.

And yet those coaches picked from different places…it really hasn’t always worked out, has it? In fact, the success rate is pretty low.

Dave Hakstol flamed out in Philly pretty quickly. You can argue about the roster he was given, but no one with the Flyers or who follows them was too upset with his dismissal. At best, you can say the jury is still out on Jeremy Colliton. Remember Dallas Eakins? Boy, that went well. Guy Boucher turned out to be a fraud, twice. About the only coach who worked his way up through the levels and got his first coaching gig without being an assistant is John Cooper in Tampa Bay. It can happen, it just doesn’t all that often.

Jim Montgomery is a name that will get tossed out as a success. And on the surface, that seems correct. Montgomery had a glittering record at Denver University. Over five seasons the Pioneers went 125-57-26, made two Frozen Fours and collected a national championship. If any coach was screaming out for a promotion to the pro ranks, it was Montgomery.

And Montgomery has the Stars in the playoffs. They missed out last year. Except dig anywhere beneath the surface, and there isn’t much difference between the job Ken Hitchcock did last year, which everyone panned, and the one Montgomery is doing now.

The Stars could finish with a max of 95 points, which is only a small improvement on the 92 they collected last year. They could finish with less than those 92 points as well. That’s just a bounce here or there.

On top of that, by any measure the Stars are actually worse than they were last year. They take less attempts, and they give up more of them. They take less shots, and give up more of them. Their expected goals, or types of chances, they both create and surrender are both headed in the wrong direction. The difference is that Ben Bishop has been way better, as they had an ES SV% last year of .925 and this year it’s .934. That’s a difference of about 20 goals just at even-strength, which is about four or five points in the standings. The other difference, of course, is that the conference is so much worse.

The Stars have roster flaws of course. There’s only one line here. They’ve been racked by injuries, as Radulov, Benn, Klingberg, Bishop all having missed time. Maybe for Montgomery to have their peripherals where they are is something of a job. Hard to say, though.

Perhaps hockey is more like football in that the transition from college to pros is just rougher than you’d think. Maybe it’s a path that needs to be more well-worn. It’s also worth noting the Denver has rolled right along without Montgomery, into the Frozen Four again. But those are his kids there, so we know he can recruit. Sadly, that doesn’t do much for you in the NHL.

If the Stars get Montgomery a second and third line, then we’ll see what he’s made of. If they can make noise in the playoffs and Bishop is injured we’ll know. But until then, maybe the exclusive club isn’t as bad as we thought.

 

Game #81 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #81 – Stars vs. Hawks Q&A: Logan Stark of Defending Big D

By Sam Fels 1547 0

None of our Dallas friends wanted to talk to us. So here’s what Logan Stark had to say a month ago when the Hawks were in Dallas. (@LoganStark)

Let’s get this out of the way up top. While the CEO swearing about the team’s two stars is good for comedic value out here, isn’t it nonsensical as Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are just about the only reason the Stars are anything? (not to mention Benn’s long-standing place with the team and fans)
– First of all, Bishop and Khudobin have been absolute brick walls this season. They’re a large factor of why the Stars are still in a playoff position this late in the season. Second, Miro Heiskanen is a godsend for this team, especially when half the blue line was injured during the first half of the season. Okay, on to the real question. CEO Lites’ comments were beyond nonsensical. Not only did the tirade tarnish the team’s reputation around the league (what high-profile player would want to sign with the team now?), but it also made them a laughing stock. Benn and Seguin have proved Lites wrong with their on-ice performance, but those comments are continuing to hang over them and the team almost two months after they rocked hockey Twitter. Benn and Seguin are the faces of the franchise and are fan-favorites, and they were definitely fan-favorites for their classy responses to the comments. In the end, Lites’ comments backfired, I think, landing egg on his face – while getting some good splatter on the team that will come off with time. CEOs come and go, but Benn and Seguin are here to stay for a long, long time. In the end, it’s their on-ice performance and leadership in the locker room that matters the most. The team and coaching staff still support them, so why should fans do any different?
Why has Julius Honka not worked? The pedigree is there, he seems to have a coach that wants to play faster, and yet four points is four points…
– Do we have time for me to draft a graduate dissertation on why Honka hasn’t worked? No? Okay, let’s give this a shot: The yo-yo effect under Hitchcock last season did absolutely nothing for Honka. Not only was he bounced between the Dallas Stars and their AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars, but he was bounced with such frequency that he never had a chance to settle into the lineup and make a real impact. When Honka did spend time in Dallas, it was most often as a healthy scratch or with sub-par ice time. None of that helped his development and can only have hurt his confidence on the ice. We’ve seen flashes of his brilliance on the ice, but not this season. He’s been a healthy scratch with regularity under Montgomery, which leads me to believe that Montgomery doesn’t know where to slot him in within the current lineup. There’s just not room in the lines for a player struggling to produce (hush, let’s not talk about Nichushkin) and who needs time on the ice to get his skates back under him, so to speak. At this point, I would say it’s time to trade Honka, use him to bring in fresh talent that’s capable of producing at a steady rate.
Jim Nill has gotten three coaches. At what point does the cannon point at him?
– If the Stars fail to make the playoffs this spring, I think there’s going to be a turnover in the front office. It’s pretty clear that management expects this roster to be a repeat contender, yet they’ve failed to make a real postseason splash. If the Stars fail to make the playoffs (or fail to make it past the first round), I would place good money on Nill being let go. The lack of postseason performances and his lackluster record at the draft table would definitely be grounds for his exit from the team. At a certain point, it’s not about the coaches, but about the guy in the front office saddling said coaches with questionable trades, picks, and players.
What are the Stars gong to do before the deadline (assuming they don’t do anything before we print this, in which case I’ll just switch whatever you said to what they did and make you look like geniuses)?
– Nill has gone on record saying they’re looking for offensive power and depth at the deadline, and Dallas scouts have been checking out Zuccarello and Panarin (they got Zuc, and then he got hurt-ED). I would keep an eye out for the Stars to make a move for either of them on a rental basis (with an extension option on the table). One thing to watch for: the picks and/or players they send the opposite way. Just what is the front office willing to part with in exchange for a player that just might help the Stars get to the playoffs? In the past, Nill has been pretty good about not giving up first round picks or developing players that will aid the team. However, the Stars are getting desperate to make that playoff push this year, so is this the year Nill finally parts with the golden ticket of a first round pick?

 

 

 

Game #81 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #81 – Stars vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 2005 0

Notes: We have no idea what the Stars will look like tonight. Benn, Zuccarello, and Polak are staying home to rest up for next week so the lines will be shuffled all night. Imagine being in a spot where you feel you have to rest Roman Polak…Seguin has 18 points in his last 16 games, which should keep the CEO quiet for a few days…Bishop is hurt, though they’re fairly sure he’ll be ready for the playoffs, so it’s Khudobin tonight…Spezza has two goals in the year of 2019…

Notes: We imagine the Hawks will try and go out of the home schedule with a bang. Gilbert was sent down after his gift, so we imagine Colliton’s fascination with Forsling continues…Crow will start, and then they’ll pack him in ice and chrio-freeze him until training camp. Or they should…The second line actually had a strong possession game against the Blues, which is not something they’ve done a lot of even when they’ve been scoring…Anisimov’s line got its head kicked in. If you’re lucky, this is Arty’s last time in red…Same goes for Seabrook? Keith?

 

Game #81 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Brewers: Now Is Not The Time

By Sam Fels 1349 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 1-5   Brewers 6-1

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

THE GOOD LAND: Brew Crew Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jose Quintana vs. Brandon Woodruff

Cole Hamels vs Corbin Burnes

Kyle Hendricks vs. Zach Davies

Probable Cubs Lineup

1. Ben Zobrist (S) RF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
5. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
6. Willson Contreras (R) C
7. Albert Almora (R) CF
9. Jason Heyward (L) RF

 

Probably Brewers Lineup

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Everything is wrong. Everything is ruined. So why not face the team that’s given your whole front office and fanbase a psychosis when you’re at your absolute lowest? Maybe it’s a weird kind of immersion therapy. Have the booze nearby.
Despite how Cubs fans have acted all winter, the Brewers and Cubs were exactly as good as each other last year. In fact, the Brewers needed a historic finish over the last month to even catch the Cubs, rather than the Cubs “losing” it. But the difference in winter maneuvers is probably what has everyone on edge. The Brew Crew identified a weakness, catcher, and went and got just about the best possible solution to it in Yasmani Grandal (who at the moment has only succeeded in torpedoing my fantasy team, but that won’t last forever). And this wasn’t a bad lineup to begin with.
Of course, the Brewers main weapon is the bullpen. Josh Hader was so bored with just striking out everyone that he spent the first week seeing how long he could get away with throwing just fastballs. He threw his first breaking ball on Wednesday, after something like 48 straight fastballs. He’s striking out two per inning anyway. The Brewers won’t miss Cory Knebel when they just make Hader throw with his right hand on his off-days. Alex Wilson and Matt Albers are also carrying ridiculous strikeout rates. Jacob Barnes has been the only flashpoint so far out of there, and you can bet they’ll find more. It’s what they do. Knebel will be a miss, but if they’re the ones who end up with Craig Kimbrel, the self-defenestration count around town is going to quadruple.
I still don’t buy the Brewers rotation, but I suppose when it doesn’t have to do much more than four or five innings, you don’t have to buy it. Jimmy Nelson has yet to return and he’s something of the trump card. If he’s what he was, that gives them at least a genuine #2 starter in this league and a day off from throwing four innings for the pen. Brandon Woodruff impressed out of the pen last year, but he and Peralta’s record suggest they walk too many guys to ever be dominant. You’ll never convince me Jhoulys Chacin isn’t Jhoulys Chacin, and Zach Davies’s Kyle Hendricks impression has only ever looked good against the Cubs. The Brewers do the best they can to take their rotation out of the equation, but it has to sting at some point. At least that’s the hope.
None of this matters if Christian Yelich continues to be a Lantern. A 1.500 OPS so far on the season is pretty much everything you need to know. Mike Moustakas has also hit the ball hard when he’s hit it, and Lorenzo Cain is Lorenzo Cain. Jesus Aguilar has been wielding a pool noodle so far, but I’ll still hide behind the couch every time he’s up. Needles McGee in left also will come up with some annoying, game-changing homer at some point, which he’ll do against the Cubs until he’s 74 (though parts of him will remain in their 20s).
The Cubs are clearly not really equipped to deal with the Brewers at the moment. Jose Quintana has held a voodoo sign over the Brewers since switching sides of town, and he’ll get his first start of the year. Q looked good out of the pen to save Darvish last Saturday, and we’ll see if he means it about incorporating his change far more this season. Maddon’s biggest mistake last year might have been pulling Q in  Game 163 out of fear of a third trip through the lineup, ignoring the facts that Q held down the Brewers all year and he didn’t have a bullpen at that point. Good thing he doesn’t have a pen now and we can see what he’s learned.
The Cubs can claim that things will shake out better with this relief group, but there’s no reason to believe that. Other than Pedro Strop, none of these guys have a track record of sustained success, and it’s here last year where Carl Edwards Jr. broke on Labor Day. You’ll remember the previous inning, Anthony Rizzo had solved Hader for a homer that gave the Cubs the lead and felt like a defining, season-turning moment. Then Edwards turned his curve into performance art and the lead was immediately lost. He’s never recovered, and very well might not ever. There’s nowhere for Maddon to turn until Strop, who has been curiously held for saves that never come. Maybe stop with that?
This being baseball of course, the Cubs could march up there and sweep the Brewers because it’s April and it’s weird and why not? We could use it. Or the Brewers could really rub the Cubs’ nose in it and wouldn’t that make for a comfy home opener the next day? What you got to say then, Theo?
Baseball

Series Preview – Mariners vs. White Sox: Different Sides of the Same Coin

By Adam Hess 1283 0

vs.

RECORDS: Mariners 7-1, White Sox 2-3

DATES AND TIMES: Friday 1:10, Saturday 1:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN Chicago Friday, WGN Saturday and Sunday

WHY IS IT ALWAYS RAINING?: Lookout Landing

PROBABLE STARTERS

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Mike Leake vs. Lucas Giolito

Wade LeBlanc vs. Ivan Nova

Probable Mariners Lineup

1. Mallex Smith (L) CF
2. Mitch Haniger (R) RF
3. Domingo Santana (R) LF
4. Jay Bruce (L) 1B
5. Omar Narvaez (L) C
6. Tim Beckham (R) SS
7. Ryon Healy (R) 3B
8. Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH
9. Dee Gordon (L) 2B
Probable White Sox Lineup
1. Leury Garcia (S) CF
2. Yoan Moncada (S) 3B
3. Jose Abreu (R) 1B/DH
4. Yonder Alonso (L) DH/1B
5. Eloy Jimenez (R) LF
6. Daniel Palka (L) RF
7. Tim Anderson (R) SS
8. James McCann (R) C
9. Yolmer Sanchez (S) 2B
For the past severeal years, it had started to seem like in the modern age of baseball, there are only two types of teams: teams that were trying to win, and teams that were trying to lose. The Moneyball era went to such an extreme so quickly that the way teams approached roster construction basically meant either you were going for it or you were intentionally tanking. The White Sox were, for a few years, in the former, constantly trying to win but always failing miserably, until they just decided to embrace what they were and start losing on purpose, but with purpose.
Over the offseason, the Mariners started to look like they were falling into the latter category, as they traded a few of their key players from 2018 away for younger, more controllable players or prospects. They started tearing down what looked like a damn-near elite bullpen by sending Alex Colome to – hey, us!, for Omar Narvaez, who was the Hawks best-hitting catcher from last year but a total butcher behind the plate. Then they traded Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets for top prospect Jared Kelenic.
However, what started to look like a rebuild quickly became more of a re-tool, as they traded Ben Gamel to Milwauke for Domingo Santana, because if there are two things the Brewers definitely needed, it’s left handed hitters and outfielders. That was less a move for the future and more a move to address something they needed now. Then they went out and signed Yusei Kikuchi, who was the best pitcher left in Japan after Shohei Ohtani came stateside, to a really creative contract that will keep him in Seattle for either three, four, or seven years, with both sides having options. Given that Kikuchi is 27, this was another move to build for now.
So in reality, what the Mariners did was build a team that could compete this year, but just for significantly less money. Clearing out the Cano contract may have cost them 2018’s best reliever in baseball, but so far the results have been fine. They took Oakland to task in the opening series in Japan back on March 20-21, and then smacked the shit out of the ball against what’s supposed to be a dominant Red Sox rotation before taking a two-game sweep against the Angels. They weren’t exactly designed to win in the same way as Boston or Houston, but they weren’t designed to lose either.
The thing that is so frustrating about watching how the Mariners went about this rebuild/re-tool movement this offseason was that the White Sox absolutely had the ability to do the same shit. Sure they missed on Machado, but had they been willing to open the checkbook up a bit and made moves like adding Santana and Kikuchi, or even some smaller moves like the Phillies made pre-Bryce Harper, they could’ve won this terrible AL Central. Seriously, looking at that Seattle roster, there’s almost no way they couldn’t win 95 games against this division. Instead, the Sox decided that they wanted to be even cheaper than Seattle and still not be good. Hooray!
For this weekend, at least, we just need to pray their bats cool off a bit and their pitching doesn’t stop what Yoan Moncada is doing. Simple!
Everything Else

Defend ‘Em Damn Near Killed ‘Em

By Sam Fels 2018 0

As the researchers and analysts pick through the rubble of the Hawks season, a theme both the coverage and the players themselves have been harping on the past few days is that for the last month or so, something has clicked with the Hawks defensively. That they’re “getting” the changes Jeremy Colliton wants to make. I, of course, dismiss this out of hand because it’s my way and also happen to think this team sucks historically defensively.

Funny thing, the Hawks have improved the last month…and they still suck.

If you look at before and after March 1st, when everything supposedly “clicked,” the Hawks do show a marked improvement in most categories. They’ve dropped their attempts against per 60 from 59 per game to 55, which might not sound like much but it is. They’ve dropped their scoring-chances against from 30.8 per 60 to 27.4, which is bordering on a massive change. They’ve brought their high-danger chances against per 60 from 13.9 to 12.8, which is also something of a big drop.

The thing is, in those categories the Hawks are still near bottom of the league. The attempts-against per 60 is actually 10th in the league since March 1st, so hey, look at that! But the scoring chances against is 21st in the league, and the high-danger chances against mark is third-worst the past month. So while the improvement is better than the alternative, the overall total is still unacceptable. They may be moving in the right direction but there’s a lot of driving to be done on that road in that direction before anyone can feel satisfied.

I have to reiterate, if you go by expected goals against, this is the worst team in the past 10 years. Yes, it’s a higher-scoring environment, but still to be the worst on record is not something you’d want. Here’s another one for ya: this is also the worst penalty-kill in the past 10 years, by a tenth of a point. If the Hawks have a good PK weekend, they might overtake last year’s Islanders. So while the Hawks’ brass might point to any improvement and cling to any hope that Coach Cool Youth Pastor is getting through, they can’t mistake the overhaul on the blue line that needs to come. And if you want to blame the goaltending on the kill, the expected-goals mark on the kill is third-worst in the past 10 years. So without a miracle in net, the kill was always going to be this bad.

I like it when everyone’s right, don’t you?