Hockey

Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blues Preview: Salt In The Wound

By Sam Fels 1514 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 27-27-8   Blues 36-17-10

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN 

VILLAGE OF THE DAMNED: St. Louis Gametime

So, what could be the worst thing you would have to sit through after an underwhelming though probably explainable trade deadline where you hoped the Hawks would begin to outline their future but didn’t really? And you’re feeling the deepest malaise about team and organization that maybe you ever have? And it feels like it genuinely might not ever get better due to the front office’s incompetence and blindness? Why a game in St. Louis of course! Where the once red-headed stepchild has thrown off its labels and shackles and is the defending champ and sitting on top of the West and didn’t even feel the need to do much at the deadline because hey, they’re got pretty much everything they need! Oh, and they’re on a hot streak!

Kill us.

Blues fans will tell you it’s been a rocky season for them, and they’re a bit worried about what’s to come, which makes you realize what we sounded like when we were complaining about the #2 or #4 center on a 100+ point team and the Blues couldn’t find reverse on a Soviet tank (not Tarasenko). And the Blues have missed their best player basically all season, but he’s practicing again so that’s just fucking great. The Note did lose five in a row earlier in the month, which let the Avalanche and the Stars into the discussion over the division and conference. But they’ve since won four in a row by the combined score of 13-2 and have a small cushion at the top of things again.

For the Blues it starts in net, but it’s not just Jordan Binnington anymore. He did recover from a two-month-long sneeze and has been fine in February. But with the pressure off as a backup Jake Allen has been great in his starts, so the Blues get a minimum of plus-goaltending pretty much every night.

It would be inaccurate and unfair to say that’s all they are. They’re in the top ten in possession stats or close to it, so they do most things well. They don’t score a ton but they score enough, and they get that scoring from pretty much all four lines. And all four lines are packed with speed to maintain that hellacious forecheck they have. This is the misnomer about the Blues, and one the Hawks among others bought into. Because it’s THE BLUES, people assumed they forechecked hard because they’re just so tough and hairy and drooling and whatever else. But that’s not it. They’re really fast, so they can get on you quicker than just about any team. Yes, they’re not afraid to hit you when they’re there, but you can’t do that unless you can get there. The Blues can and well in time.

The Blues don’t generate a ton, there’s not much inspiration in this lineup, but they give up almost nothing because they make it so hard to get through them to even get to their zone, much less create chances. You’re basically coughing up the puck before their zone most of the time, which is what the Hawks have struggled with twice this season in their two losses to this outfit.

Are the Blues primed for another run? You might have to prepare for that. Colorado has enough speed to weave in and out of their tie fighters, but enough on the back end? The Stars don’t score enough, even if they almost pulled it off last year. The thought that only Vegas might be able to navigate this is enough to make you puke for a day.

As for the Hawks, they’ll begin the post-Lehner and Gustafsson-era with hardly a tear in their eye. The impression you get is that the dressing room and front office was sick of Lehner’s shit, and his pouty-face the past couple weeks didn’t help. This becomes a Crawford contract-drive, though the Hawks should be lining up getting him signed tomorrow. Assuming he wants to, which isn’t a given.

What to watch? Well, this will be the hardest path Lucas Carlsson has ever had to navigate, so how he does is worth assessing. It also might be nice to see Adam Boqvist move his feet once through it. Other than that, I can’t help you.

(Oh it looks like they won’t even let Carlsson try, because Nick Seeler’s brain and feet are certainly equipped to deal with this. How many times can one defenestrate himself?)

This is our lot in life now. Providing the fodder for Blues fans to marvel at just how far they’ve come and how much has changed. And to laugh and chortle. It should be a lesson in how quickly things can change, and they could always change back. But for now we just have to eat it. Because it doesn’t matter if the Hawks win tonight. It won’t change their playoff chase, and the Blues have eyes on bigger things. Just like we used to. Perhaps that’s what hurts most. Other than the history and proximity, is this even a rival right now for the Blues? They’ll play like it, and their fans will act like it, but pretty soon they won’t even think about the Hawks.

I guess you hold onto this, because if things turn around anytime soon it’s this kind of thing that makes it sweeter. Even if you can’t picture it now.

Hockey

Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blues Spotlight: Binny’s

By Sam Fels 1479 0

We can rant and rave all we want, but Jordan Binnington doesn’t have to do anything for the rest of his career and he’ll be a St. Louis legend. We’re shocked they don’t already have a statue of him next to Federko and drunk Brett Hull. He’s the only goalie to backstop the Blues to a Cup, and hence he’ll always be a God. Funny how he only had to do that once and yet Corey Crawford has done it twice here and yet a large swath of Hawks fans still think he’s worth pissing on. What the fuck is going on in the world today?

The thing with Binnington is that he’s gotten caught in that web of hockey coverage and analysis–which again, has somehow eluded Crawford even though he’s done it twice (!)–that states if you’re a goalie that’s won a Cup you’re obviously great. Jonathan Quick rode that for half a decade or more and a huge contract and he’s really been nothing more than average for almost all of his career. And while Binnington hasn’t proven to be that low on the totem pole yet, it’s a little harder to judge what he actually is.

Binnington’s rep was built last winter in January and February. In 18 starts over those two months, Binnington put up a .943 and only lost two of those starts in regulation as the Blues rocketed from last in the league to safely into the playoffs (something the Hawks are still convinced can just happen and paying no attention to how the Blues were constructed, but that’s for another time).

But from there, Binnington was…ok? He was .912 through the rest of the season, which is just a tick over league average. The narrative is that he carried the Blues on his back through four rounds, but that’s not really the case. He went .914 in the playoffs, which is fine, even good, but hardly “carrying” a team. The Jets were quitting, the Stars still can’t score, and the Sharks played without a goalie and a healthy Erik Karlsson. That’s not to belittle the Blues run (well, maybe a little), you can only play who’s in front of you, but to illustrate that Binnington didn’t have to go Roy ’86 to get the Blues to the promiseland.

It hasn’t changed much this year. Binnington is at a perfectly reasonable .913 for the season, and the Blues sit atop the conference standings. He’s gotten some help as Jake Allen has really taken to a backup role, so the Blues get no dropoff there and can give Binnington more nights off than they might have planned.

But again, it’s been streaky. Binnington was brilliant in October and November, but then woeful in December and January. So perhaps we can just conclude he’s streaky? Which probably makes him like every other goaltender on the planet, but also doesn’t make him goalie royalty either.

Which might make the summer interesting. Binnington is up for an extension as he’ll have one year left on his deal after this one. You would think that the only goalie to have a ring in Missouri at age 26 is an automatic extension for as long as possible, and that’s likely what the Blues will do. However, they were reasonable with this current two-year deal he’s on now, which he signed after the Cup win. After all, we’re talking about a player who has only been in the NHL for barely a season.

If Binnington were to snuff it in the playoffs this year, which is what Blues should be doing, he would be on something of a prove-it season next term. Which sounds strange given what he’s already meant down there. The Blues being rational? This is getting out of hand…

Hockey

Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blues: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1164 0

David Perron – Always first and foremost. And his agent is a dweeb who personally harassed one of our writers with publicly doxxed info. Somehow that’s perfect.

Brayden Schenn – Not so much because he has punk-ass tendencies, but because he was the first really shrewd trade the Blues made in a span where they can’t seem to do much wrong. And it’s fucking with our world view. This isn’t how things are supposed to be. Where the hell is Jori Lehtera now anyway?

Robert Thomas – The assholes at St. Louis Gametime have been warning us about this guy for years, and we kept laughing at them because they huff glue at lunch every day. Except now he looks like he was worth the hype. It’s one thing for the Blues to be a model organization now, but for SLGT to actually be right? We’re outta here…

Hockey

Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blues: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 925 0

Hawks

Notes: Well, we don’t have to worry about the goaltenders much anymore, we guess…We’re listing Koekkoek on the third pairing more out of hope than anything else, because him playing with Keith is killing our soul even if the season is lost…Carlsson is now up for the season, which is at least an admittance from the Hawks that they need to take the time to see what they have here…

Blues

Notes: Perron might be their leading scorer but he has all of one goal in February…Schenn also has just one goal in his last nine…Binnington had a rough go in January with an .866 but rebounded in February with a .918…

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Caratini, Shaken Not Stirred

By Sam Fels 1055 0

We move along…well, we’re not really moving along because we’re staying behind the plate. For a large swath of the offseason, it was thought that Victor Caratini would move into the starter’s role as the Cubs cashed in on Willson Contereras. But that didn’t happen, or hasn’t happened yet, and Caratini will remain in a role we’re fairly sure he’s pretty good at. Let’s dive in.

Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Previews – James McCann

By Wes French 1529 0

James McCann finds himself in a new world of a different kind in 2020: Backup Catcher, staring at the high likelihood of not reaching 100 games played for the first time in his career since his short debut at the end of 2014. McCann’s 2019 was a pleasant surprise, a torrid start helping to see him to setting career highs with 118 GP, 120 hits, 62 R, 26 2B, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 30 BB, .273/.328/.460/.789 batting line en route to an All-Star nod and a place in Sox fan’s hearts. What did he get for his breakout? a one year, $5.4M deal and a seat on the bench behind new starting backstop/pitch framer extraordinaire Yasmani Grandal. I feel like James isn’t gonna like the dip in GP heading into certain free agency this winter…

2019 Stats

.273/.328/.460, 18 HR, 60 RBI

2.3 fWAR, 3.8 bWAR, 1.0 WARP

6.3 BB%, 28.8 K%

.333 wOBA, 109 wRC+ .789 OPS

5 DRS, -10.2 FRAA, 11th-percentile framing

Last Week On Nitro: James found himself non-tendered by his previous employers in Detroit in the winter of 2018. He’d just come out of the worst season of his short career (57 wRC+) and the the Tigers decided the continued rebuild could do with any other backstop, allowing the 2nd-year arbitration eligible McCann to sign a one year, $2.5M contract with the rival White Sox. McCann sure did go about rubbing Detroit’s nose in it, scorching out of the gates on his way to an All-Star appearance and the aforementioned career marks all over the stat sheet. McCann’s intangibles were also deeply felt at the Arrow, with quick comfort and bonds with Lucas Giolito and others on the pitching staff helping to create some consistency and positive clubhouse culture from a position with a great deal of turnover for the Pale Hose. This all earned him another one year pact, avoiding his final arbitration chance for a cool $5.4M.

The bright lights would fade, though. McCann turned in a 133 wRC+ through the first 61 games and slowly reverted back towards his norm in the final 55 with a 83 wRC+ mark and stark regressions everywhere but in the power department (9 HR in each segment). Stark regression (sick fake band name) to his BB/K ratios and BABIP contributed to the swift end to the party and erased the thin veneer masking his near-league worst framing skills. Rick Hahn and Co., in somewhat of a shocker, decided not to bank on McCann finding a way back to his first half season glory and inked C Yasmani Grandal to the richest free agent contract in team history. Thanks for the good will and early season stat spikes, here’s about 40% of the playing time and double the pay for your troubles.

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): The good news is we don’t have to try to project what a full McCann follow up might look like on account of having his playing time slashed to pieces. Shortly after the Grandal signing, there were many easily connectable dots to see a fun timeshare to be had between C-1B-DH among those on the roster in the form of McCann, Grandal, Jose Abreu and Zack Collins. McCann likely would have found his way to at least half a season’s worth of games, give or take, or more when you factor in that familiarity with the staff and team already in house. Then Christmas came and Edwin Encarnacion came with it, and any idea of a fun little timeshare with plenty of PT to go around went out the window.

You can safely expect McCann to be more of what he was in Sept/Oct 2019 throughout his reserve role in 2020, and a .250/.315/.460 and a BABIP closer to .300 is a very palatable line to get from your second catcher. Development and the signings of Grandal and EE make relying on McCann’s bat moot, something that even he should be feeling relaxed about, so he can focus on his real deficiencies. The area that McCann can really improve his worth is by becoming something more than literally the bottom of the league in pitch framing.

Those FRAA and 11th-percentile framing ranks are absolutely unacceptable for any team trying to win in the MLB and McCann seemed to realize, whether it was before the Grandal signing or the seconds after it was announced, that he needed to do all he could to improve in this area. He’s taken the steps this offseason to put the time in and work exclusively on his framing, and having a full spring training and season with Grandal will likely help the 31 year old backstop improve his abilities and his market value. Anything he can do to continue to help the development of the young starters and bullpen arms on the pitching staff will help McCann and the team.

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: Keeping with the theme here, the Grandal and EE signings and overall development within the organization has shielded the team against having to deal with a “worst case scenario” involving James McCann. The Sox don’t need the McCann from the first 60 games last year, they don’t need him to sway nearly 20 homers and drive in gobs of runs and set career marks across his stat line. They also don’t need to worry about what to do in the event he craters to 2018 57 wRC+ levels because they actually went out and got ahead of that exact potential problem.

Is this really the White Sox we’re talking about?? The absolute worst case scenario is Grandal going down with a serious injury, McCann reverting to his non-tender campaign offense and failing to have any of the offseason framing work pay off. That would be a real fucking Rube Goldberg machine worth of catastrophes to get us anywhere close to that kind of scenario. No, this is a rare occasion where the Sox put themselves in position to deal with some sort of awful chain of events without having the bottom fall completely out.

McCann would pretty much have to pout to Chris Sale/Adam Eaton Drake LaRoche-era levels for us to hit a “worst case scenario” on his season. Progress!

BAH GAWD THAT’S McCANN’S MUSIC!: McCann got his island in the sun moments last summer, and he seems pretty damn pleased with it all. The guy has gotten a bunch of PT, albeit on some pretty atrocious teams, and gotten paid to do so, and he finally might be a part of something special. Would he like to keep playing 110 games/year? Sure. But I bet James McCann is pretty excited to be on a team with playoff aspirations for the first time in his entire career, too.

McCann hasn’t complained or shown any attitude with his change in role, at least not publicly. If he can pitch in a solid OBP and show improvement on his pitch framing he might find himself getting closer to 60+ games. Abreu and EE are going to need days off, Grandal can’t catch 140+. McCann still has plenty to prove for another contract and possibly a shot at a starting gig elsewhere in the future, but he’ll be needed this season with this team. Hopefully he can embrace that and succeed with the at bats and innings he’s given, and if not, well, it’s really just not that big of a deal.

Hockey

Stan Can’t Overcome The Fear

By Sam Fels 2592 0

It’s always a little hard to judge what a team does at the deadline. We’re not on the phones, we don’t know what the other offers were, so at the end of the day you can’t really say the Hawks didn’t get enough for what they did decide to move along. This may have been the best they could have done for Robin Lehner and Erik Gustafsson.

The problem is that in some ways, the Hawks backed themselves into this. We were hardly the only ones screaming for the Hawks to trade Gustafsson last deadline. His value would never have been higher. He was never going to match that season again. And he was never going to be part of the long-term plans here. It was obvious. When you see Brady Skjei going for a first…

But Stan was afraid of not giving the veterans every chance of chasing a highly unlikely playoff spot. He couldn’t take the bigger risk of sacrificing what was right in front of him, which wasn’t much in reality, for what was to come, which is never guaranteed.

So he sat on Gustafsson. And a third round pick is all you get. It’s always nice to have more spins of the wheel, but your expectations of a third-rounder aren’t high.

As for Lehner, the deadline comes when his play had slipped and Crawford had clearly been playing better than him. There was a brief kerfuffle that Lehner was willing to take a discounted, three-year deal to stay with the Hawks longer term. But you know what? Fuck that. One. that’s in direct contrast to him telling the press himself he wouldn’t be taking any discounts a few weeks ago. Two, the Hawks have too many needs to start blowing too much cash in net, because you still have to pair Lehner with someone. Which brings us to three, which is that Lehner hasn’t earned a three-year deal. He’s got one season as a 1A in a Trotz system, and he’s got two months here bailing out a bad defense, and six weeks of being meh. He’s hardly a guarantee. And his mouth may have worn out his welcome in the dressing room.

Once Carolina decided they weren’t going to chase a goalie, or not pay the price for one, there really isn’t a huge market for one. Vegas needs Fleury insurance. The Flames or Oilers probably should have been looking, but it wasn’t pressing for them. So this is what you get.

Still, the Hawks can focus on re-signing Crow, as long as he finishes the season strongly, and it probably won’t cost them much more than $5M for one or two years. That’s at a number where you can bring in a partner for him at a decent rate.

Still, what the Hawks need is clear, and I today doesn’t really get them closer to it. They’re a d-man plus Ian Mitchell short, or two d-men short, and a forward. Maybe Slava Denim is that down the road, but it sure feels like he’s two years away at least. 2nd or 3rd round picks are only the last part of packages to get something that matters.

With the amount of forwards moving today, one wonders if Stan took any calls on Brandon Saad or even Dylan Strome. Seeing as how he didn’t move them, at least in Saad’s case you might as well start talking about an extension with him just to see, because he can still be a part of a good team here.

Every deadline, when it feels like Stan hasn’t done enough, we hope the summer brings more moves. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. Saad’s value will be lower then than it is now, so is that even worth it? And maybe a trade isn’t even necessary if they do the things that are necessary to open up cap space (buying out Maatta, keeping Seabrook in the gimp’s closet). You never know what will be on offer.

You can’t force the offers to be out there. Maybe Lehner would have fetched you more a month ago, but a month ago the Hawks thought they were in it. Crawford probably would have been a higher price than Lehner right now, and given that there wasn’t much of a market for Lehner, that’s probably not worth it.

It’s underwhelming, but it probably always was going to be. And that’s what happens when you don’t have a vision and are making things up as you go. And that’s where the Hawks have been for three seasons now.

Everything Else

Yes Movement – Chicago Cubs 2020 Player Preview: Willie The Pimp

By Sam Fels 1290 0

The people in charge don’t want them to do anything. The masses still love them. And the players themselves are going to have to force the powers that be to pay attention and make them do what they should have done long ago. The Chicago Cubs, the players that is, are the Yes Movement. And we’ll start with perhaps the emotional heartbeat of it, and perhaps the second biggest surprise at still being here, Willson Contreras.

Willson Contreras 2019

105 games, 409 PA

.272/.355/.533

.368 wOBA, 127 wRC+

9.3 BB%, 24.3 K%

-0.3 Defensive Runs

2.7 fWAR

Amidst the constant trade rumors, all the other horseshit that went on with the Cubs during the season and in the offseason, it’s pretty easy to forget that Willy was the best offensive catcher in the NL last year, and would have been for all of baseball except for whatever the fuck happened to Mitch Garver last year. Since he came into the league in 2016, Contreras’s 117 wRC+ is only behind Grandal (118), Sanchez (123), and Garver (128), and the latter two don’t have nearly the amount of time in the league. That’s what you’re dealing with. Contrerases don’t grow on trees, and that the Cubs would so willingly toss him overboard out of terror of what he will rightly earn is bordering on ludicrous.

YES! YES! YES!: The questions about Willy always revolve around his framing. He hasn’t been very good at it since his rookie year, when he was, and because his arm is so good and he’s never been shy about showing it, he’s kind of rendered it almost useless as a weapon. So overall his defensive numbers have suffered Runners simply don’t go on him, and they rarely venture too far off the bases and if they do they’re hyper-aware of making sure to not get picked off. Keeping runners anchored has value, but not as much as value as cutting them down altogether. So if Willy is going to raise his overall value, it’s going to come from stealing strikes.

The Cubs had David Ross work with Contreras last spring training to try and improve it. He got better as the season went along by most measures, According to Baseball Savant, he was actually just above water in it. The Cubs have brought in Craig Driver from Philly to improve it even more, as he worked magic with JT Realmuto and others.

Because Willy is going to hit. He always has. 2018 seems to be the aberration, but his hard-contact rates bounced back up last year to near 40%, and considering he’s in his prime there’s no reason to think that won’t remain the case. And he’s never going to have that 9% HR/FB rate again as he did in ’18.

The thing with Willson, and he’s taking on more of this because of how the whole team does, is there’s always worry about how much he makes contact. The thought is you can strike him out in big spots if you need to. And it’s not totally wrong. Willy has always been below the league-average in contact rate, and more swing and miss. His 92 wRC+ in high-leverage situations, along with a 31 K%, suggests that when pitchers lock in, they can get him. But that’s if you buy into “clutch” or not.

So the big thing at the plate, instead of behind it, will be if Willy can improve his contact rates, especially in big spots. That means he’s got to be better high in the zone, and especially above it. You can beat Contreras with high fastballs either at the top of the zone or above it, and he’s going to have to lay off the latter more often to get the pitches he can crush.

You’re A B+ Player: The way it goes wrong is A. Willy is traded midseason, which we can’t rule out, or B. all of the things above don’t happen. Willy can’t nail down improvements in framing, and this rotation is going to need all the help it can get. And Contreras continues to chase high fastballs above his hands, especially in the big spots, and he can’t get that K-rate closer to 20%. The 25% of last year seems on the high side, but he’s never been below 22%. Willy takes his walks, he just needs to get more balls in play. Do that, and he’ll be an All-star again and the Cubs lineup goes from pretty good to bordering on frightening.

Endgame: Willy is going to be one of the most important Cubs, because he always is. And he’s going to hit. And given how his framing numbers arced up last year as the season went on, that should continue, though he’s never going to be Grandal or Flowers in that category. And Willy is the type to take the trade rumors and the noise and turn into a giant middle finger toward opponents and his own bosses. While he’s not the best player on the team, he seems to be the measuring stick. When he’s ticking over, the Cubs are good. When he’s hurt or struggling, so are the Cubs. He keeps things lively.

As he gets deeper into arbitration, and deeply set on proving how valuable he is to the team, I would expect big things from #40. And I would expect it to be loud. Because Willy doesn’t do quiet.