Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Calgary Flames

By Sam Fels 1689 0

Did you forget that the Flames finished with the best record in the West last year? You probably did, because if you cut a loud fart and winced you missed their playoff appearance. They were done in five games against the Avs, as they watched Nathan MacKinnon do a full Cirque de Fuck You and were helpless to stop him. They even got a good playoff performance from Mike Smith, which didn’t matter because Mac K was taking 40 shots per game just by himself. Will it get better this season? Let’s find out…

2018-2019

50-25-7  107 points (1st in Pacific, lost in 1st round)

3.52 GF/G (3rd)  2.72 GA/G (9th)  +66 GD

53.9 CF% (5th)  53.2 xGF% (7th)

19,3 PP% (18th)  79.7 PK% (21st)

Goalies: After a season where the fans were clamoring for “Big Save” Dave Rittich to take over for Mike Smith, he eventually did and wasn’t really all that impressive. That left the door open for Smith to take the playoff starts, which went well for him but not the team. This time around, the Flames will give the job to Rittich full-time and hope his career .909 in 66 career games are just a starting point and not an indication of what he is. At 27, one wonders how much room there is for growth, and if this is his prime, it might not be enough to take Blasty through multiple rounds in the spring. Given the way Bill Peters teams play though, it can probably get them through the regular season.

The interesting card here is Cam Talbot, who will start as the backup. Talbot simply died of exhaustion in Edmonton, getting 73 and 67 starts in successive seasons before coughing out most of his organs the past two seasons. But it was only two seasons ago that Talbot was putting up .919s and .924s with the Oilers, and possibly with spot starts at the beginning of the season he can rediscover some type of that form. He could be just cooked, but he’s worth the risk as a backup and safety net.

If neither work out, the Flames will definitely be in the market for a goalie at the trade deadline, or pray to God that Tyler Parsons lights up the AHL and can be rushed up to Alberta. But that would be the height of desperation, and even their ability to get anyone at the deadline is going to be complicated with their cap situation.

Defense: This seemed like the strength of the Flames all season…and then MacKinnon burst through the walls and declared he was here to fuck shit up before flipping over the whole buffet and draining the keg himself. And now the Flames appear to just be running it back.

They have to do that, because the plan was to introduce Juuso Valimaki into the lineup, but his knee when blooey while training in Finland in August and now the Flames are fucked without the customary enjoyment. The only hope for change is continued growth from Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington, which they actually should get. If one or both can start to take on second pairing responsibility, the Flames should be ok.

Maybe. Because even though Mark Giordano put up a Norris campaign, he was nowhere near the Avs top line in that first round immolation. It looked exactly like when Joakim Noah won Defensive Player Of The Year with the Bulls and then spent the playoffs getting his neck stepped on by Nene (now let’s all picture MacKinnon with Nene’s dreads). Gio is 35 now and if the spring was some kind of signal of a tumbledown the hill, the Flames could be in serious trouble. And it can happen fast. Ask Duncan Keith. Gio has already proven he’s dragged around TJ Brodie to any kind of competence, and if he can’t do that anymore then this unit could be in serious trouble.

Forwards: The big question is when, and possibly if, Matthew Tkachuk is going to rejoin the fray, as he’s still unsigned. More and more RFAs seem to be coming into the fold, but it’s now crunch time to get him in before the season.

Without him, this outfit is even more top-heavy than it already was. There’s Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan at the top, and Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik on that unique checking/scoring line, but that’s about it. Elias Lindholm can join either, and put up 78 points at 23. They’ll need Dillon Dube to show a lot more than he did in his first toe-dipping at the top level. We’re talking about a team that took Milan Lucic on, so you know there are major holes in the bottom six. Which only get larger if someone has to rise up to replace Tkachuk. And if he’s anything like his dad–and he’s everything like his dad–he’s going to go into the tank as soon as the ink is dry on the new paper (or more accurately, demand his bathtub of chicken wings in the dressing room).

They’re short up top, but in Gaudreau and Monahan and a hopefully not-blob-like Tkachuk can mostly outscore it.

Prediction: Lucky for the Flames, the division still blows. San Jose and Vegas will be good, but they can harvest on Vancouver, EdMo, LA, Anaheim, and Arizona enough to comfortably remain in the top three. You could squint and see where if Giordano is stumbling through a quick decline, and Rittich isn’t up for it, and Tkachuk never matches last year, it could be a disaster. All of that is possible, but I wouldn’t bet on likely. 107 points again seems a bit beyond them, but a comfortable 98-100 is probably still on the table, given that Peters always has his teams getting more chances than they give up. And in Calgary, unlike his Carolina days, he has the horses to finish them. But this team needs or needed one more half-step to truly become a power. Maybe it was Valimaki. Maybe it’s another goalie. Maybe it’s a player from nowhere. It doesn’t feel like they got it.

 

Previous Team Previews

Carolina

Columbus

New Jersey

New York Islanders

New York Rangers

Philadelphia 

Pittsburgh

Washington

Boston

Buffalo

Detroit

Florida

Montreal

Ottawa

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Arizona

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Pirates: And Now, The Denouement

By Sam Fels 1162 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 82-74   65-91

GAMETIMES: Tuesday-Thursday 6:05pm

TV: Tuesday/Thursday NBCSN, WGN Wednesday

THE DAMNED: Bucs Dugout

SERIES PREVIEW

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Pirates Spotlight

Oh right, the Cubs have to finish out the schedule.

It’s hard to think of a more funeral dirge atmosphere than the next three nights at PNC Park, where the zombified Cubs will stand around and stare at the long dead and white flag waving Pirates. It’s hard to believe it was only 10 days ago that the Cubs throttled the Pirates so hard at Wrigley that you genuinely believed they were ready to close the season with a flourish. It seems like it was last season or even longer. But that’s all it was. Baseball can be so cruel.

Oh sure, the Cubs could run the table here and the Brewers could get Sonny Gray‘d and Luis Castillo‘d in Cincy and suddenly the last weekend might matter somewhat. But does it? What would a miracle run get the Cubs? One more game with no Kris Byrant, a one-legged Anthony Rizzo, and a one-handed Javy Baez? There’s only so much one team can carry. It’s probably for the best if everyone just goes home.

On the surface, the Cubs have a question if Cole Hamels will make his start on Thursday. It probably hinges on whether the game is for anything, which it likely won’t be. But considering how bad Hamels has been while hurt, considering it’s the Pirates either way, and considering if it’s even a question, you can probably look for Alec Mills to take that start and Hamels to start looking up real estate listings in Orange County.

Anthony Rizzo probably isn’t far from being sat for the rest of the season either, though he will insist on playing until there is absolutely no point. Other than that, I’m not sure what to tell you. More experience for Nico Hoerner? A last chance to see Ben Zobrist? Likely Nicholas Castellanos too?

As for the “always could be worse” department, the Pirates are currently the whole thing. You saw them simply get bludgeoned at Wrigley. They followed that up by getting swept at home by the equally moribund Mariners where they scored six runs. They then got swept without every really breathing in Milwaukee, losing the first two games of that one by an aggregate 20-2.

This team clearly gave up somewhere in July, and yet they’ve let Clint Hurdle continue to mummy his way thorough this season. One relief pitcher went on the DL for good after punching another reliever. Then it turned out the reliever he was punching was a rapist. That’s just one story from the second half of the season, one in which the Pirates will end up losing more than 50 games.

Josh Bell has flattened out. So has Bryan Reynolds to a point. Joe Musgrove has been ok, but other than that it’s been a cavalcade of janitors and train-hoppers that have filled out the lineup and pitching staff. Where this team is going is anyone’s guess. Bell has yet to prove he’s someone you build around. Reynolds seems much more like a complimentary piece. There’s no one in the rotation with Taillon out until most likely 2021. There aren’t really any prospects to get excited about. It could be real ugly on The Confluence for a while.

The schedule says they have to do this. Expect the games to match. Almost there, though.

Baseball

Pirates Spotlight: The Easy Cover Of Rebuild

By Sam Fels 1270 0

It sounds funny now when you say the Cubs along with the Astros are something of the “model” teams are using to justify total tear-downs and rebuilds of their teams. But that’s still the case, though for how much longer one wonders. And the Cubs might not be the model anymore. The other thing is that it’s not going to work out as well even as it did for the Cubs. Look at the Phillies, who tried it and seem stuck in the middle forever. Not everyone gets the parade. And of course, the whole process can be used to cover up what is actually a simple “Producers” like tank to just cash checks.

The Pirates might be the prime example. This is an embarrassing end to the season for a team that just was never good enough because its management never tried to make it anything else. The cover story for them is that they’re still rebuilding from the ’14-’17 run, such as it was.

But did that really have to be? The Pirates watched the Cubs zoom past them, pinpointed by the wildcard game that Jake Arrieta and Kyle Schwarber essentially took from them. But over 162 games, those teams were exactly the same. Did they have to just watch instead of run with? They let Charlie Morton and AJ Burnett go their way, but they still had Jameson Taillon waiting and Tyler Glasnow not too far behind. But they added nothing to the lineup, and were caught standing still when everyone else was ready to move forward. It wasn’t attendance’s fault, as they drew three million fans the previous season.

No, what happened was ownership saw that it would take more money to keep up with the Cubs (and eventually Brewers and now Cardinals), and decided that it wasn’t worth it to them. Thanks to BAMTECH and other factors, they still get their money. So the Pirates of the middle of the decade were allowed to yellow, and that became a justification for trading Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen for essentially role players but no future stars.

The Pirates will claim that they’re remaking for a run in the next year or two, but what they’re really doing is just treading water and raking in the cash every MLB team gets before they even have to worry about gates and local television and the like. It’s a cover of a rebuild, but it’s hardly that.

There isn’t a team in MLB now that can’t afford to build a winner. The only team that might have that claim is Tampa, and they seem to come up with a contender every year anyway. But thanks to some teams that have found success going to the bottom to rise again, any team can use that as a life preserver when all they’re really doing is cutting costs. You’ve seen it in free agency the past two winters.

Until there’s a reason not to, this is the cycle the Bucs will stay in. Sure, maybe their system can produce a couple more players and Taillon comes back healthy one day and Musgrove really pops. And maybe they spasm a 92-win season or two. But as soon as that needs to be built upon and the foundations need to be paid, they’ll sink back into this, claiming a rebuild was necessary. It won’t be, but it’ll be profitable. Every team now can reach for “Springtime for Hitler.” The Pirates are just the best example.

Football

Three Things We Learned From Week 3

By Sam Fels 1256 0

This is a feature I used to do at FanSided last season. But it’s not something I want to waste on those evil fucks, so I give it to you, the people, every week. 

Khalil Mack Is The Most Enjoyable Athlete To Watch In Chicago

Oh sure, maybe one say this will be Eloy Jimenez. You could make a case for Lucas Giolito this year. Or Javy Baez every year. Patrick Kane would have an argument, except the best years of his career (statistically) have come as empty calories for useless Hawks teams.

But none of them have redefined a team the way Mack’s arrival has for the Bears, and none of them are consistently making the opposition look like they’re simply not there as Mack. When Mack showed up, the Bears went from an interesting team to the best defense in football. Hope became expectation instantly. And whenever he faces a team that hasn’t made any or all specific plans for him, he simply runs the show.

Note: You should know that this post pretty much is just Mack adulation every week, because he’s just so much fun. You’ve been warned. 

Look at this shit:

Yeah, I know that Washington’s normal left tackle is still holding and out and refusing to play for them (and why shouldn’t he, really?). Still, much better tackles than this don’t even get a hand on Mack. He alters every game he plays, even if it’s offenses shifting three blockers that way and opening up the other side of the field. And yet when you watch games he’s always there, either scaring the piss out of the quarterback or being held on his way to scaring the piss out of the quarterback. It’s real live video game shit. We really are lucky.

It’s Never Enough With Mitch

I think my favorite part of last night’s game was checking on Twitter during the Bears first scoring drive on offense, watching everyone bitch about Mitch’s inaccuracy as he didn’t actually throw an incompletion and the Bears scored. I was sure that was the point of the exercise. Maybe I’m wrong.

Yeah, there were some throws that maybe cost his receivers a few yards after the catch. He also had a rating of 116.5 for the game. Yeah, maybe they didn’t push the ball down the field as much as you would have liked…until he hit Taylor Gabriel on the run in the corner for the killer score. This offense was never going to go from 0-to-60 in one week. They ran the ball a ton in Denver, partly because of the altitude and temperature. The next week they’re going to turn into the Fun-n-Gun? I don’t think it works that way.

All of this felt like it was undone by the simply awful “fade” route throw in the third that was somewhere in the same stadium as Allen Robinson but much closer to the seemingly toast Josh Norman. There’s no way to explain that one. There’s just going to be one or two of those per game, and we can only hope they’re either dropped or so bad they’re not near everyone. But that’s what every QB below the three or four best do. Live with it, because there were other dimes on the night that everyone is neglecting to mention.

Akiem Hicks Is Probably As Important As Mack, Which We Probably Knew

We only have to pray that injury isn’t that serious. Because the one or two drives Washington put together in the third and fourth came without him on the field, and it was the only time Casey Kasum had any time to do anything. The whole thing is predicated on the Bears being able to get pressure with four, especially up the middle when they leave the QB nowhere to go or look. They can’t do that without Hicks, and far better QBs than Keenum will enjoy that more.

That’s what still gnaws about last year. You may never get that health and that level combined from both Hicks and Mack again. Perhaps if the game wasn’t already basically done Hicks could have kept playing. But you’ll notice if he’s hobbled against the Vikings next week, that’s for sure.

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-20 Blackhawks Player Previews: Brendan Perlini

By Rose Rankin 1445 0

The Hawks lines are coming into focus now that they’ve gotten through a few preseason games, i.e., DeBrincat-Strome-Shaw (ugh) are your second line, and Toews and Kane are joined at the hip for better or worse on the top line, with CCYP trying to find the least bad option to skate with them. But there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the bottom-six rabble, of which the Hawks have no shortage. Brendan Perlini is yet another piece of that rabble, and his role on this team is still as unpredictable as it was last spring. Let’s do it:

2018-19 Stats (w/ Hawks)

46 GP – 12 G – 3 A – 15 P

45.2 CF% (-3.8 CF% Rel) – 40.4 xGF%

52.6 oZS% – 10:36 Avg. TOI

FFUD Review

A Brief History: When Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini came our way around the same time as our Thanksgiving food comas, Perlini was expected to be the more reliable producer, while Strome was the will-he-won’t-he prospect who hadn’t yet reached his potential. (I think it’s still debatable what that potential and its ceiling may be, but that’s for another day and another preview.)

Perlini ended up being serviceable on the second line and mostly underwhelming, until March hit and he showed flashes of…well, maybe not quite brilliance, but definitely shininess, scoring eight goals in seven games. However, following that offensive outburst he promptly turned around and started acting like a bored, cranky teenager who couldn’t be bothered to win a puck battle. Colliton chose that moment to give the appearance of having testicles and benched Perlini for his insolence, once during a game and then just sending him to the press box for a little while. The Hawks dithered about re-signing him in the offseason but eventually inked him to a one-year, 875K extension that basically screams “this is your last warning.”

It Was the Best of Times: If Alex Nylander turns out to be the perennial loafer we expect him to be, then Perlini could earn a spot in the top six (that’s also dependent on Andrew Shaw and Brandon Saad but we’re aiming for the best-case scenario for Perlini here). Honestly, it’s pretty sad to think that our top six depends on who’s less of a lazy dumbshit, but here we are, your 2019-2020 Blackhawks. Maybe Perlini finally has a true breakout year with 40+ points and gets signed as an actual depth scorer for two to three years at a still-affordable $3 mildo or so.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Conversely, Perlini could end up unmotivated and salty, and as a result he fades into irrelevance in the press box as Nylander, Kubalik, Wedin, et. al., fill the holes up and down the lineup. Not even useful to trade, Perlini becomes an official has-been-never-was.

Prediction: Brendan Perlini will earn himself a roster spot, albeit in the bottom six. I’m not convinced that Nylander is any better, and we know Zack Smith isn’t, so if the organ-I-zation keeps burying superior talent in the AHL or at least not bothering to give the likes of Sikura (either one) or Kurashev a look in the regular season, then there’s probably room on a line for Perlini. I don’t expect he’ll turn into some offensive juggernaut—we’re probably talking in the 25-point range. But he’s not chronically lazy, and that ends up being good enough…great seats still available.

All stats from Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Erik Gustafsson

Duncan Keith

Slater Koekkoek

Olli Maatta

Connor Murphy

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Carpenter

Alex DeBrincat

David Kampf

Patrick Kane

Alex Nylander

Football

Bears 31 – Redskins 15: If We Didn’t Learn Anything, Does That Mean We Learned Something?

By Brian Schmitz 1619 0

Sigh! For the next six days, Chicago can revel in the relaxation of knowing that the Bears are not as bad as we thought they were; the Washington Redskins on the other hand…ho-lee-shit are they terrible.

A victory on Monday Night Football saw a LOT more good than bad, but it was far from perfect. That said, a 31-15 (which didn’t feel nearly that close, until it did for a few minutes) win on national TV is exactly what this team needed for their own collective mental health.

What set the tone for the Bears offensive breakout was Matt Nagy’s decision to come out of the gate going up-tempo, no huddle. This change in philosophy got Mitch Trubisky and the entire offense into an early rhythm that they never got out of. Along with going up-tempo, Nagy got Trubisky out of the pocket far more than he had in the first two weeks. This change obviously caters to the QBs athleticism but also affords the Bears O-Line the chance to get away from their natural pass-pro sets, which have been lacking at various times this season.

Although the first Bears drive didn’t result in a score, the defense handled the points on the next possession as Ha Ha Clinton-Dix turned a Case Keenum overthrow into a 37-yard pick-6 up the Redskins sideline. At this point in the season, the Bears defense had as many TDs as the offense – sooooo, that kinda sucked – but who cares? The Bears were winning a football game and actually looking OK doing it.

After penalties, and more penalties, and a missed kick, and some unwatchable periods of football, the Bears were able to do something they haven’t done since last January 6th – throw a touchdown pass. What was even more encouraging about this play was that it wasn’t the Trubisky’s first, second, or maybe even third read. Mitch was given a lot time, stayed composed in the pocket, went through his progressions, and made the right throw to Taylor Gabriel. This drive, while still littered with some inaccurate throws, was certainly the most promising of the season.

Seconds later, Khalil Mack did some Khalil Mack shit – which is beat his man off the line (again), swipe at the ball on a fly by, and force a fumble. Danny Trevathian recovered the ball deep in Washington territory, which led quickly to another Trubisky TD throw to Taylor Gabriel on a well-designed play action pass. This was the moment you could feel a collective sigh in and around Chicago. The Bears were the better team tonight, and unless they would suffer a historic meltdown over the remaining 35 minutes, a 2-1 record heading into week 4 vs. Minnesota at Soldier Field was a given.

After yet another forced turnover by the best defense in the league, Trubisky & Gabriel continued their historic night as the duo connected on a 36-yard TD pass. Gabriel became the first player ever with three receiving touchdowns in the same quarter in the long history of Monday Night Football. The Bears were now up 28-0, which is 9 more points than they had in their first two games combined.

Aside from a seven-minute span where Washington decided to act like a real-life NFL team, the 2nd half was largely uneventful. The Redskins eventually returned to being the Redskins and this “get-well” for the Bears game was on ice – a 31-15 road win that could have not come at a better time.

Bear Scats
• There are extended periods of time when the only reason to watch this team is to see how dominant the Bears defense is. They are a unit, that with any sort of help from a competent offense, can win a Super Bowl. It’s a rare thing in sports these days to see a defense which is more entertaining to watch than an offense – but this what we are lucky enough to be witnessing in Chicago this season.

• My personal highlight of the Redskins 3rd drive was Adrian Peterson getting stuffed on yet another 1st down run attempt and showing his frustration with his horseshit O-Line. Fast forward then to the 3rd quarter where Peterson was visibly pissed about not getting any red zone carries. To be honest, I’m not sure how much longer we are going to see Peterson in a Redskins uniform. Even though he seems to think its 2009, he’s not a featured back at this point in his career – which means he’ll probably get released, sign with the Patriots, and average 100 yards per game.

• Why was Booger McFarland incessantly calling for the firing of Jay Gruden? Say it once, fine. But to continue to say it over and over shows there is more to his comments than just his own professional opinion. I am a big Jay Gruden fan – I played for Jay and he’s a great dude. He hasn’t exactly been put in a position to succeed in Washington, and on top of that, his boss is a certified weirdo how still doesn’t know how to run a professional football franchise after all these years.

• Mitch Trubisky finished 25/31 for 231 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT – he was much better tonight against a very bad defense, but I still don’t trust his accuracy. Even a handful of his completions were poorly thrown balls, which gave his receivers no chance at any YAC numbers. Sunday afternoon vs. Minnesota will give us all a very good picture of where we are with Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback of a team that has very strong Super Bowl aspirations.

• Remember when Tarik Cohen & Anthony Miller were the offensive weapons of the future? How’s this working out? Cohen rushed four times for -2 yards. Miller had one catch. Matt Nagy needs to get these two guys involved if he not only wants to keep them happy, but also wants to see this offense flourish this year and beyond. Aside from QB play, the lack of production from Cohen and Miller is very disheartening.

So, What Does It All Mean?
The Bears won a game they had to win against an opponent that deserved to lose. I am not sure how much we learned this week, but it’s better than the alternative, which would be knowing for certain that Trubisky and Nagy and the O-Line all suck and this teams has no chance. Minnesota on Sunday will be a realty check for this team. I am excited to see how they respond.

Football

Bears Week 3 Recap – That was fun, until it wasn’t

By Wes French 1376 0

Club Dub is open for business after the Bears outlasted the Racial Slurs of Washington in a true tale of two halves, 31-15. Mitchell Trubisky was more encouraging than not, but still had some WTF moments. The defense asserted itself early and often but left a lot to be desired in closing out the win. Matt Nagy had his best game in along time, but will need to overcome some injuries to key players to keep this win streak alive.

Trubs was as accurate as he’s been since before the shoulder injury last Winter, throwing for 3 TDs and capping a fantastic first half with an absolute dime to Taylor Gabriel for a long TD on 3rd and long. Mitch went into the half 20-23, 173 yards and those three scores with a 28-3 lead. The second half turned on Mitch, though, after he made an atrocious throw on an attempted fade route that landed well short of Allen Robinson and into the arms of Josh Norman for another Red Zone interception.

That turnover flipped the game, as Washington would close the gap to 28-15 early in the 4th quarter while the Bears offense stalled to a halt. The defense was there to bail out their Quarterback with a late fumble recovery to help ice the game, but it can’t be ignored that Mitch was not the one to put the emphatic exclamation point on this one. David Montgomery did what everyone has been saying he can do and iced the game with some very nice work on the ground, ensuring Washington no opportunity at a shock finish. Trubs finished just 25-31 for 231 yards and those three first half scores.

Khalil Mack was in the Washington backfield all night, accounting for two sacks including a sack fumble that set up a short TD drive early in the second quarter. That was just one of five turnovers created on the evening, with Kyle Fuller adding an interception on top of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix double and one for a score. Akiem Hicks added a fumble recovery but also aggravated his nagging knee injury and will be re-evaluated Tuesday at Halas Hall. The secondary is still a work in progress as well despite the INT binge, giving up massive chunks at times while sitting in Pagano’s favored zone scheme. Maybe that’s just the give to the take aways, but it looked real ugly as Case Keenum and Scary Terry McLaurin gouged the defense in the 2nd half.

Taylor Gabriel, who caught all three touchdowns, left in the second half with a concussion, and while the hit in question didn’t look all that bad you just never know how long those things will linger. Leonard Floyd was shaken up in the first half, but returned and closed out the game – still probably something to monitor as the Bears head home for a date with rivals Minnesota.

 

 

Baseball

No, Despite Your Feelings, The Cubs Probably Shouldn’t Re-Sign Castellanos

By Sam Fels 2542 0

I saw this tweet everywhere yesterday in the aftermath of the Cubs complete self-immolation/hydrogen bombing of their season. I know why it happened, but first…

It’s undeniable that Nicholas Castellanos brought a different energy to the Cubs. He also hit the shit out of the ball, which helped. Jason Heyward has brought a different energy to the Cubs for the four years he’s been here, but no one really cares because he doesn’t hit. It was easy to see with Castellanos of course, the way he bounced out of the box and in the dugout and out to the field.

And we all want and like that. It is a kids’ game after all. And this kind of picture at least makes us feel like the players are as upset and depressed as we are. Or that they feel playing in Wrigley Field and being a Cub is truly special. To some it is, to even fewer it matters more than getting paid the most they can for as long as they can. Which will assuredly be Castellanos’s aim come November, as it should be.

But cold, dead-eyed analysis should tell you that the Cubs have different priorities this winter, no matter what you think of the offense. First, let’s compare some numbers:

Player A since August 1st: .325/.370/.675  164 wRC+

Player B since August 1st: .292/.282/.636  156 wRC+

You’ve probably figured out the second player is Kyle Schwarber, and yet you will still hear a great many fans and media types saying it’s Schwarber who should be traded and Castellanos re-signed, even though Schwarber is younger and cheaper and keeps a great deal more financial flexibility. You might not think the last part matters, or more to the point don’t think it should matter given the financial might of both the Cubs and the Ricketts family. And I would agree with you, except it’s going to anyway, and we should probably deal with reality. Though that’s never really been our strong-suit around here, which is why we still think Teuvo Teravainen is a Hawk.

You might also think that it doesn’t have to be an either-or choice between Castellanos and Schwarber, but it kind of does, and it kind of has to do with Jason Heyward. We’ll circle back to this.

What you have to decide is whether you think Castellanos, or Schwarber, is the player they showed the last two months or more the player they’ve been for years. Over the season, Castellanos has put together a 124 wRC+, which mirrors his 130 of last year. Here in his prime, that’s probably just about what he is? 120-125? We can’t expect this kind of binge every year. This will end up being Schwarber’s best season since his rookie campaign, and I would wager that’s what he will be going forward as well, as his numbers don’t have quite the inflation to them that Castellanos’s does.

But again, financial considerations come into this. You may think the Cubs have Hamels, Zobrist, and Morrow coming off the books for a cool $45M or so in flexibility. Doesn’t work that way though, as most of Zobrist’s money has been swallowed up by Kimbrel’s contract. And there are raises coming. Willson Contreras is probably getting a $3M-$5M raise from this year. Anthony Rizzo gets a $3M one. Kris Bryant is in line for another $3M or more than he got this year. Same goes for Javier Baez. Oh, and Schwarber too. Kyle Hendricks’s salary for sure bumps up $5M with his extension. Right there, that’s $20M gone, conservatively.

Castellanos is in line for, and this is a guess, 3/$54M contract or thereabouts. Given his age, maybe he gets four or five years. Give him that, and your flexibility is severely limited, even with a rise in the luxury tax threshold.

And quite simply, the Cubs have greater needs, even if the offense has caused you to dent your own skull. Right now the rotation for 2020 is Hendricks, Darvish, Lester, Q, and some mishmash of Chatwood or 80 innings of Alzolay or whatever’s behind door #3. Both Chatwood and Alzolay, given the amount of work he can provide, are almost certainly better used as multi-inning pieces out of the pen. Even if you slot Chatwood into that rotation, with the way Q and Lester have finished the season, you really think you’re going somewhere with that? Hamels is only coming back if he takes half of what he just got or less and for one year, and I don’t see that happening.

The free agent class blows, and that would still be the case if Stephen Strasburg opts out and the Cubs by some miracle want to give him more than the $25M and four years he’s owed. Still, there are improvements to be made.

Same goes for the pen, though that really shouldn’t be nearly as expensive.

But the most important factor is you simply can’t go a full season with Heyward in center between Castellanos and Schwarber and expect him not to simply get Thanos’d. A league average offensive hitting season out of Heyward is fine, just barely, when he’s giving you plus defense in right. When he gives you that at the plate and substandard defense in center–which is what he’s done–you have a black hole on your roster. And Heyward isn’t going anywhere. At least, not unless the Cubs front office I Dream Of Genie’s it.

Of the top 10 teams in fly-ball efficiency (fly balls turned into outs) six are playoff teams. Of the bottom 10, only Tampa is there and they hardly ever give up fly balls anyway. The Cubs are middling in that department and in the bottom-10 when it comes to line-drive efficiency.

Now maybe the calculous changes if the NL miraculously adopts the DH for 2020 (it won’t). Or maybe someone just takes Heyward away because and you can plug in a genuine centerfielder who won’t go John Henry having to pinball between Schwarber and Castellanos. But their defense is not something they can ignore, given the parameters they have.

It hurts to say. Nick has been a delight, and there’s nothing more he could do, with the injuries to basically everyone else. But the Cubs need to get back to catching everything and also limiting the amount of things they need to catch. Castellanos doesn’t really help with either of those.

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Preview: Arizona Coyotes

By Sam Fels 1547 0

For the 378th straight year, this is the time when the Arizona Coyotes will be relevant. Their oh-so-smart and oh-so-young and oh-so-handsome GM has finally broken the code, and now all the young talent they’ve been amassing since I had hair is finally going to gel, take a huge leap forward, and save hockey in the desert. You heard it here first, motherfuckers! Actually, you’ve heard it every goddamn year from everywhere, and then by December you’re genuinely shocked when the Yotes pop up on the schedule because once again you’ve forgotten they exist.

So I’m just going to go ahead and say this year will be no different. It’s the safe bet.

2018-2019

39-35-8  86 points (4th in the Pacific

2.55 GF/G (28th)  2.68 GA/G (6th)  -11 GD

48.7 CF% (20th)  49.2 xGF% (17th)

16.3 PP% (26th)  86.0 PK% (3rd)

Goalies: Once again, the Yotes will roll it back with the hopes that Anttie Raanta can keep the loose grip on all the gremlins that form his body and muscles, and not see them go spilling off in every direction again and miss a large chuck of the season. It happened…never.  So when he once again finds himself in the infirmary, the starter’s role will be taken up by Darcy Kuemper again. Strange things happen to goalies in AZ, which is they turn good. They have a system for it. So you may remember Kuemper as the middling place-holder in Minnesota, which is what he was. But last year in Glendale he threw up a .925, which followed a season of .920 in both LA and Arizona. That doesn’t mean he’s definitively turned a corner or anything, because this is still Darcy Kuemper we’re talking about. But the Yotes seem to just get representative goaltending at worst the past few years, which they probably will again through the combo of DK and the times Raanta maintains oxygen intake.

Defense: Of course, the main problem has always been assembling skaters for Arizona. This defense still contains Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Niklas Hjalmarsson, who were dominant last year (a single tear rolls down my cheek). Beyond that, I can’t help you. Jakob Chychrun has missed huge parts of the last two seasons through injury, so maybe this is the one where he really leaps into the main picture except I don’t know what it is he does that gets everyone with a breeze going between their legs. Even with that though, there is not much beyond this. Alex Goligoski is 34 now. Jordan Oesterle is…you know what? His name is enough. Jason Demers is solid but needs a dynamic partner, which may or may not be Chychrun. They basically need the latter to finally blossom for this to be a good unit, because they’ve had OEL for years now and all that’s gotten them is a handful of themselves and their face in the dirt.

Forwards: And here’s another issue. They hardly scored last year, and are hoping that an aging and cranky Phil Kessel will solve that problem on his lonesome. I guarantee he tries to murder Derek Stepan by Christmas when he’s not getting any passes on his tape. Nick Schmaltz is healthy after blowing out his knee, so Yotes fans can look for five great games followed by a month of him floating around the outside and avoiding contact and waiting for a breakaway pass. Clayton Keller is probably due for a step forward, and will certainly be tasked with feeding Kessel at least on the power play where the Yotes need all kinds of help. Nothing helps out a young player like having a moody sniper’s feelings weighing on him. Still, Keller’s second season was a step back, and he might not be a point-per-game player. Which the Coyotes have exactly none of.

Prediction: This team was able to goalie and defend its way to near a playoff spot last year. The hope is that Kessel and growth from Keller and one or two others will aid their scoring and power play problems, but I’m not convinced. Kessel will get you 25-30 goals until he can’t walk, but the Coyotes need more than that. He’s no longer a surefire top line winger, and there might not be another one on the roster. Keller has yet to prove that he is. Schmaltz most certainly isn’t. Everyone thought their pick of Barrett Haydon was a joke. And you’ll never convince any of us here that Rick Tocchet isn’t huffing paint and betting lines behind the bench. With the playoff bar certainly going to be higher this year than it was last year, it feels like the Yotes are still behind it. The top three spots in the Pacific are spoken for, which means scrapping for a wildcard spot. It could happen if either or both Kuemper and Raanta have great years, but that’s their most likely hope. Feels like they’re coming up short again. Which is their lot in life.

Previous Team Previews

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Columbus

New Jersey

New York Islanders

New York Rangers

Philadelphia 

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Washington

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Buffalo

Detroit

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Ottawa

Tampa Bay

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