Hockey

Game #32 – Hawks vs. Coyotes: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1179 0

Hawks

Notes: We don’t know how the Hawks will line up their defense without de Haan and Keith. In reality, with nothing to lose this season and at bottom anyway, they should pair Boqvist and Murphy and see what they can do. But they won’t. Maatta should be back from the Ebola he caught or whatever it was, but we’ll see at gametime…Kubalik hasn’t been bad on the top line, and scored the meaningless goal on Tuesday, but they really need to give Dach a look there just to give it any flair…

Coyotes

Notes: Demers got hurt on Sunday when these two met last time and went on IR this morning, so he’s out for a bit. Still. Lybushkin has taken on the promotion well but as a whole they looked pretty ragged against the Flames without both Demers and Hjalmarsson…Raanta got lit up by the Flames so the Hawks will get the #1 again in Kuemper…

Baseball

Here’s Another Strand To Their Lies

By Sam Fels 1904 0

You probably already have figured this out by now, but every time I write about the Cubs from here until spring training, if I can even bring myself to do it depending on what happens, might send me into a rage that causes me to spontaneously combust and the article will remain partially finished. I will leave specific instructions to the minions to print it as is so you’ll know when and where exactly it happened, because I don’t want you to be uninformed.

Anyway, Joe Sheehan usually puts it better than I do:

That was in response to the Lerners saying they can’t afford both Strasburg and Rendon, which they definitely can, but it applies anywhere. And so it is with the Cubs and the Ricketts family. And one thing they’ve seemingly kept under wraps, as Sheehan pointed out in his newsletter today, is that we will be operating with a completely new CBA in just two years.

So the idea that the Cubs will not be able to afford everyone when they’re a free agent…you simply can’t know that because we don’t know what the CBA will look like. Perhaps the owners and union have some inkling on where things are going based on preliminary discussions. Or perhaps the players will get their head out of their ass and hire an actual lawyer to head their union instead of a middling, power-hitting first baseman whose basic negotiating tactic has been to present his belly to be tickled.

Again, as Sheehan pointed out, the MLBPA failed to peg the luxury tax to revenue for the whole league. The tax threshold jumped 16% between ’10 and ’17, while revenues went up 70%. But you can’t renegotiate that now, only in the future for what’s to come.

Still, the fear for the Cubs has always been going too far above that threshold for a second straight season, which is at $208M for this season. After arbitration and such the Cubs are projected to come in above that again or right at it, which is what apparently has Tom Ricketts shitting himself in public so you can understand his suffering. They want to get in under that mark.

But how far above this are we really talking? Some have the Cubs coming in at $182M before any free agent additions, while some others have them around $210M. It seems unlikely the Cubs are in for much more than a $3M-$4m payment this year at the 30% rate, if they even get above the threshold. Obviously their arbitration numbers will grow next year from where they are now, but also Lester’s money comes off the books as does Chatwood’s, as does Jose Quintana’s. That’s $43M right there.

And then the year after there’s a new CBA, which could peg the luxury tax at $250M for all we know. Or possibly not even have one, depending on how hard the players want to go at this (and it should be exceedingly hard). Let’s be nice and dream, and say that the Cubs come to their senses and decide they’re going to keep everyone because y’know, they’re good at baseball and that’s sort of the idea here. And I’m going to say it costs $125M total to keep Schwarber, Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, and Baez. Fuck, let’s call it $135M, because Bryant likely should end up with $10M more than any one else at least per year. And it’s another $30M for Kimbrel and Hendricks after that, but Kimbrel will only have one more season left. Darvish gets $19M. Heyward is in at $24M. That’s $208M for a reliever, 2/5ths of a rotation, corner outfield spots, and three-fourths of your infield as well as a catcher.

Sounds like a lot, but you also have Hoerner around who will make nothing, perhaps a fully developed Happ, and also two years to fill in those blanks with your system, which should be enough time to come up with something. Basically, if the luxury tax bumps to where it should in 2022, you’d have to work to get there.

Let’s call it all told $245M in 2022. That’s after your own network for two seasons and assuming no new hotels or luxury suites, though you never can tell. It’s higher than say a $220M bill with salaries and luxury tax penalties tacked on that you might get this year or next, but is it astronomical? Is it fuck.

If you want to convince me that, at most $15M over two seasons is enough to break the Cubs financially, I want to see some fucking books opened. Again, this isn’t about “can’t” afford. It’s about “don’t want to.” And it’s all a lie.

Hockey

It’s Time To Move On From One Goal

By Sam Fels 2219 0

One of the more confounding things about the Hawks, and there’s plenty, is not only that we can’t get a sense of what the plan is (especially when they tell you they don’t have one), but it’s hard to separate their marketing and promotions department from their actual hockey operations. John McDonough will tell you he doesn’t get involved in hockey decisions, but we all know that’s probably horseshit. The two are definitely jumbled.

We’ve discussed somewhat regularly on the podcast that the Hawks pretty much operate in terror of their fanbase, feeling that any half misstep will cause a return to the dark old days instantly. And it’s understandable in a way, because it really wasn’t that long ago. It’s only 12 years in the rearview. And all the people in charge now were either part of the organization when they drew 4,000 a game or were taking over right then. It’s not exactly in the deep recesses of their or our memories. And no one wants to go back to that.

Still, there’s a desperation that seems palpable with the announcement of a “One More Shift” for Kris Versteeg today for Sunday. Look, we all love Kris Versteeg around here. In his first stint as a Hawk, he was incredible if infuriating fun. His second stint was brutal for the most part, but that’s before we knew reacquiring old members of the band was going to be the extent of their pro scouting. And the whole “One More Shift” thing probably isn’t worth spilling that much ink over, but I don’t have much else to do.

But Kris Versteeg hasn’t been gone all that long. He played preseason games this year. He was playing games for the Flames less than two years ago. He hasn’t been “out of the scene” for very long, if at all. And it was the same when they did this for Brian Campbell or Patrick Sharp or whoever else of recent vintage.

When they’ve used it for other players from the 80s or early 90s who haven’t gotten their due, that was pretty cool. It’s part of the history, and guys like Steve Larmer, Eddie Belfour, Al Secord, they haven’t really gotten their due from the organization in the past for as important as they were to those teams. They’re not good enough to have their numbers retired (though Larmer might be) but certainly meant enough to the organization for recognition. Same goes for Roenick, who got his own night in 2010 and another shift.

But when you’re doing this for players who have been retired for like five minutes, it feels like a desperate attention-grab, a frantic clinging on to what came before that’s now gone. And it’s not about Versteeg on Sunday night. It’s about how the whole team is run on both sides of the coin.

The Hawks still think they can only sell tickets if they convince everyone that it’s the same era as when everything was so fun and perfect. They have to convince you that this is all just an extension of 2010-2015, a temporary blip before they return to that. It’s all one thing. But you know it’s not. And I know it’s not. And somewhere in those office, they know it’s not. And they have to start acting like it.

Because it’s hard to argue they haven’t managed the actual team like it’s still that time. Don’t tell me that their handling of Brent Seabrook has at least a little to do with clinging on to the past. Fear of a backlash. And perhaps their absolute refusal to kick tires on the market for Keith or Kane is the same. Or maybe those two have no interest in going, and that’s fine. We don’t really know, but it’s felt like they’ve felt that getting back to the mountain top is only a reach for them instead of a hefty climb.

But that’s gone now. It’s in the past, even if five of the major faces are still here and even if they remain the most recognizable players on the team. Some of that is marketing, and some of that is the front office’s failure to bring anyone in to join them and eventually usurp them at the top of the card. Maybe DeBrincat will soon, and Dach and Boqvist are supposed to.

Either way, the whole team needs a reboot. Drop the slogan, change the goal song, vary up your presentation. We all know that day is over, and maybe it would be refreshing for both customer and business to start over. Everyone could use an attitude reset on this team. And maybe with a fresh coat of paint and a new outlook, the organization could actually see itself for what it is and run accordingly. You can’t get that far forwards if you’re always looking backwards.

If McDonough is so talented of a marketer, and if you don’t believe he is just ask him, he can probably pay someone to come up with another motto/tag line that he can take credit for. The Hawks need to move into a new era in both their branding and how they’re run. Maybe if you change the labels, you can change the whole thing under them too.

Football

Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Week 14: Time To Believe In…Anything?

By Sam Fels 1159 0

Once again, we collect our Bears wing to put the final touches on the win over Dallas and look ahead to the Packers. 

Ok…well there’s gotta be stuff to be optimistic about now after Thursday night, right?

Brian Schmitz:  Here for all the positivity, it will be a great offseason storyline for a team that misses the playoffs. It’s such a Bears situation: they were bad, but just not bad enough for anything of substance to change. This little run is assuredly a cock tease that will end with a jerkoff and a sausage pizza. 

Wes French: Brian, call me what you want but a cock tease that ends in a jerkoff and a sausage pizza doesn’t really sound all that bad. 

Considering the way the game started – 17 play, 9 min DAL TD drive, Mitch INT on the goal line – I was all set to MF everyone and write this thing off. But then Mitch caught fire with his legs, the new TE contingent proved far more competent than their over priced/drafted predecessors and the offense seemed to open up in a big way. Even Pagano go the early adjustments right after that opening TD drive and the game felt well in hand shortly after the start of the second half. 

So while I’m relishing #clubDUB right now, I’m not going to punch any postseason tickets or act like they’ve solved their problems. it still took Matt Nagy 3/4 of a season to let his QB do what he does best, which is probably costing this team a real shot at some January success. I am starting to think that more of the issues lay with Nagy himself and his thinking he’s the smartest guy on the field at all times. 

What do you guys think this season could’ve looked like if they’d taken a more Baltimore approach with the QB, letting him run around and working on those awareness/decision making deficiencies in real time instead of telling everyone shit was going AMAZING all summer, forcing complex plays on an over-matched young QB and then making a bunch of excuses and just saying “not good enough” for three months?  

Brian: The Baltimore approach is the new NFL. It’s akin to the GS Warriors of 2015. They revolutionized the way the game is played. Every fan should want to see the Bears trend this way, because A. It fits their current offensive talent. B. It works. And C. It’s really fucking fun to watch. 

 

It’s going to be the question over these three games, no matter how they go, but should any final decisions on Mitch be made purely on how he finishes this season? He could play himself off the team in these last three, but the more likely scenario is he plays just well enough for the Bears to roll with him next year without picking up that fifth year option, right?

Wes: Final decisions? No. As we discussed earlier, I think Nagy/et al did Mitch a disservice this season with the way they started and the game plans/play calling that accompanied it. He’s done better of late by doing more of what he’s comfortable with, not what Nagy wants to do. I think biggest decision to be made is on Nagy – stick with what works and change/implement some of what he’d like to do as his QB starts to show he can do those things or spend the off-season trying to force his scheme through with a guy that clearly didn’t take to it last summer and hope for better results. For fans and everyone involved I really hope it’s the former.

I honestly have no idea what they’re going to do regarding the fifth year option. He can definitely play his way to it or out of it, but I believe it’s more about if Pace/Nagy will be here to see it. If they don’t pick the option up I think it says more about those two and whether or not they’ll be here beyond 2020 as well. 

Tony Martin: I think that while the biggest decision may be figuring out what Mitch’s contract looks like, if the offensive line isn’t patched up significantly this team will spend all of 2020 doing what they did in 2019- stumbling around trying to figure out if the QB they moved up to take is actually any good. The skill position players are great, the defense should continue to play at a level that is good enough to win games consistently, but the offensive line needs extensive work. Without it I fear this team will be treading water in 2020 no matter how this year ends. 

Brian: As this season progresses, it has become more clear to me that Nagy deserves much more of the blame than Mitch. Nagy selfishly wants to win his way, that is why he gets uber-defensive when asked about ceding the play calling duties to anyone other than Matt Nagy. He wants Mitch to be a robot that follows Nagy’s offensive plan and doesn’t ad-lib in any sense. Mitch, on the other hand, wants to be at his best, which is when he is creating with his feet, getting outside of the tackle box, and sometimes just drawing shit up in the sand. A good comp for this situation is the Ravens; John Harbaugh is confident enough in himself as a coach that he doesn’t try to contain the off the cuff playmaking abilities of his QB. I don’t think anyone is playing for their job at this point and I don’t think the next 3 games will change who the QB, Coach, or GM of this team is next season.   

Tony:  I think you’re speaking to the real issue here: the power struggle when it comes to how to most effectively run the Bears offense. I think consensus is starting to build among Bears faithful that Nagy cost the team at least two or three games with his insistence on running the offense his way, which is on one hand why he was hired but on the other hand explains a lot of the issues the team faced through a majority of the season thus far. If this version of the offense was showing up when the defense was healthy, this team would be holding a Wildcard spot today.

 

Hockey

Game #31 – Hawks vs. Knights Preview: Streaking In The Desert?

By Sam Fels 1497 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 12-12-6   Knights 15-12-5

PUCK DROP: 9pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

DIAMONDS AND DUST: SinBin Vegas

You most certainly don’t feel like it, but if the Hawks were to get a point out of this one, and they only just got their first two points ever in Vegas in four tries last month, they would have something of a points-streak. I don’t know if four games count as a “streak,” but these days we have to take what we can get. And it’s going to take an extended one if the Hawks are going to leap all the teams they need to get into the playoff discussion. They’ll start the desert swing tonight before wrapping up this small road trip in St. Louis, which is only a desert of the mind.

They’ll find a Knights team that isn’t quite having its own way as it had in its first two years. They hold the last wildcard spot at the moment, but somehow find themselves trailing both the Coyotes and the Oilers by five points. They won’t expect either of those teams to hold up, and you’d think when those bubbles burst the Knights will be there to pick up the pieces and go home. It’s still the smart money.

In some ways, the Knights are the opposite of the Hawks. They do all their good work between the goal lines, but when it comes to making it count on either end they’ve been a little shy. They rank in the bottom 10 in both shooting-percentage and save-percentage, which kind of undoes their top-1o standing in both Corsi and expected goals percentage. Whereas the Hawks can’t do any of that in-between shit but do get saves and do get goals because they have experts on that at both ends.

It would be easy to point to the aging Marc-Andre Fleury and think that’s the problem, but only his injuries have been a problem. The real issue is the Knights don’t have a representative backup. Malcolm Subban has been thoroughly mediocre, with a .901 and the sub-.500 record he and the team has when he starts. Fleury has bee fine, but has missed the past couple weeks. Luckily for the Hawks, he returns tonight.

At the other end, the Knights just haven’t made their chances count even if they get more of them. The days of Max Pacioretty being amongst the league’s best marksmen are probably past. Mark Stone never was. Wild Bill Karlsson was never going to match the 25% shooting-percentage of two years ago. Marchessault and Smith haven’t really made up the difference while also doing just enough. It’s likely the Knights won’t have a 30-goal scorer, but might end up with six or seven 20-goal ones. But if Smith or Patches or Marchessault catch fire for a month, they will most likely rocket up the standings.

It’s still the lightning quick squad that has been a nightmare for the Hawks for most of their meetings. Get it out, get it up, get it the fuck up there as quick as possible is always the plan with the Knights so they can get their forwards in space. And their defense, thanks to Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore mostly, is just mobile enough to give themselves just enough time to do so, whether it’s one pass or off the glass or chipped out to the red line. When it’s on song it can be impossible to live with, but you also need to make those things count by actually finishing, which has been something of a struggle so far this year.

To the Hawks, who will start Corey Crawford tonight. Adam Boqvist is up, and is the only Hawks d-man who can play at the Knights’ speed. Where he’ll play hasn’t been determined yet, or if he’ll play at all. It’s likely he’s in for Koekkoek while everyone still worships at the altar of Dennis Gilbert. And he is likely to get very exposed tonight, chasing hits he won’t come within five feet of as the Knights forwards gleefully sprint into the space he vacates. The rest of the lineup should remain the same.

The Hawks have gotten three of four points available against Vegas so far this year, which seems a miracle given what we saw the first two years. Without Keith and this plodding blue line, you really don’t look forward to this one much. But the Hawks can’t afford to deem any game beyond them if they’re serious about playing games that matter later on in the season. So they’ll have to be quick with the puck, no 17-pass breakouts, and perhaps collapsing a bit more to their crease instead of chasing forwards they can’t catch all over their zone would be helpful.

Off we go.

Hockey

Game #31 – Hawks vs. Knights: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, And Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1253 0

Ryan Reaves: As always. We’ve gotten through two games against the Knights without Pat and Eddie gushing about “this element.” Will we get through a third? Most likely not, especially if the two of them have gotten into the local fare.

George McPhee: People remember that he once punched a Hawks coach, right? No? Well he did, not that the Hawks’ coaches back then weren’t with a swing, but it’s the kind of thing that would get you blackballed from a sport that made sense.

Brayden McNabb: Dirty because he’s slow and unskilled, Will be their undoing again in the playoffs against any team that can skate. Sadly there might only be one of those and it’s Colorado.

Hockey

Game #31 – Hawks vs. Knights: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1144 0

Hawks

Notes: Not exactly sure how the defense will line up. Boqvist played with Keith his previous stint here so that’s no clue, and that’s if he slots right in (though he should). This is our best guess, but don’t quote us…Kubalik seems poised to get a run with Toews and Saad, and that makes the most sense right now if Dach isn’t going to be tried. Sikura had some success up there last year, so don’t be shocked if he gets some shifts there too at some point on this trip…Crawford gets the nod in the rotation…

Golden Knights

Notes: Cody Glass left their last game against the Rangers after taking an elbow to the head, so he might not make the bell. The Knights didn’t have a morning skate so we’ll find out at gametime…Nick Holden hasn’t played much of late but appears to be taking John Merrill’s spot tonight…Fleuy had been out since November 23rd with something of a niggle but is back tonight. And the Knights need him, as the backups have been woeful…Stone has one goal in his last nine…

Baseball

Turns Out, You Can Turn Off What Turns Me On

By Sam Fels 2109 0

I don’t even know if we have younger readers. I know we have a couple younger writers, but maybe everyone who reads this remembers when “Cheers” was on NBC. Maybe even when Diane was the female lead (not even close to as funny as Rebecca and I’m not even going to entertain an argument about it). But let me take you back anyway to 1996.

The heart and soul of the Blackhawks wanted to be paid what he was worth. He made no bones about it for a few years. The Hawks hung around the fringes of championship contending, though never really looked like they could threaten the Wings or Avalanche. Perhaps with another move or two, and not even major ones, they could have. But the owner was one of the biggest assholes on Earth who thought he was larger than any player, and the Hawks traded pretty much everyone’s favorite player that summer instead of paying him what he was worth. And right after that, they were irrelevant in this town, in that sport, everywhere for 13 years until that shithead owner died. You could fire a cannon through the UC on most game nights and maybe hit one person.

Jeremy Roenick was never the hockey player that Kris Bryant is the baseball player.

And that’s exactly what should happen to the Cubs if they are going to seriously pull the trigger one what increasingly looks like a likely Bryant trade. They should draw 15,000 a game and Hotel Zachary should collapse onto Tom Ricketts’s head. But it won’t, because somehow–and I really have no idea how–enough Cubs fans have convinced themselves this is just the way it has to be or that it might even be good business.

I don’t know how many times I have to scream this until there’s blood fountaining out of my eyes, but a Kris Bryant trade has nothing to do with baseball. The ideas of “extending the window” or “long-term health” are goddamn smokescreens to fool a surprisingly large portion of the fandom who became infatuated with the rebuild and apparently never want it to stop. It is simply about not paying Kris Bryant what he’s worth because the Ricketts family wants to keep a little more for themselves. Because of the way baseball is structured and the way the park is now, they don’t have to actually draw full house to turn a profit. They’re not the only ones skating on this.

The offers rumored for Bryant are utterly ludicrous, and yet I see far too many people trying to justify it after looking up from their Top 100 prospects list that I’m sure they don’t jerk off on daily. Austin Riley and Cristian Pache? The first struck out half the time last year and got replaces by fucking Charlie Culberson and Adam Duvall, and the second is someone you’d have the privilege of waiting two years for to not be as good as Kris Bryant. Oooh, a .,747 OPS in AAA, excuse my while my throbbing erection bursts!

The Dodgers? Here I was under the impression that the Cubs and Dodgers were supposed to be fighting over the NL pennant for near a decade, and now the Cubs are just going to hand them their best player? Well it must be for Walker Buehler, another franchise turning player? Nope. Oh, well then maybe Gavin Lux and Dustin May, two of the higher regarded players around who are ready now? Sure ain’t, fucko! It’s for Alex Verdugo, who couldn’t keep Joc Pederson or Chris Taylor out of the goddamn lineup. How is this not making everyone want to pull out their own esophagus?

There is not a trade for anyone other than a list of about seven that makes any sense for Kris Bryant, Repeat this to yourself until you believe it or until you keel over. I don’t really care which.

I’ll give the Hawks this. As much as can be said about them right now, and I’ve said it all, they are trying to win. They may not know whether it’s now or in two years, and they probably don’t know how to go about either, but they idea is the same. And it has to be, because the NHL is still so gate-dependent. The Cubs have given up on that, and they’ll get away with it because I’m apparently the only one angry about it. This is completely fucked.

And yet so many have convinced themselves it’s the right, or just acceptable move. We’re less than two years removed from Bryant not just being in the discussion of best 3rd baseman in the game. It was fact. You didn’t hear a peep from anyone about it. And then two injury-riddled seasons later and suddenly everyone thinks he’s Keith Goddamn Moreland? “Oh he’s not clutch!” Fucking die. Or did I hallucinate the homer that bailed the Cubs out of only the World Series in Game 5? “He’s not that good.” You’re too stupid to live and you’re taking up my oxygen.

The Rickettses fucked up on their budgeting for all the things that didn’t have to do with baseball, and now they’re going to make you pay for it by punting on the next two years at least to watch a hardly impressive Cardinals team or a suddenly improving Reds one zoom by you. Every time Tom Ricketts leaves the house he should be pelted by rotten vegetables because he has the business sense of a Twinkie but will never pay for it because Papa is godly rich and has all the money anyway.

“Sports is a business,” is always the rationale, and it’s not wrong. But we use that so often it’s lost all of its meaning. At the very end of it, the idea was that the “business” still, however tenuously, balanced on getting people interested and in the park and their eyes on the TV. You could only do that by winning. And now that’s out the window. And no one cares. They’ll win if it comes along to them, but not if it costs that much. And this is Chicago, which at least used to be one of the most pro-labor/union towns anywhere. What the fuck happened?

I hope the White Sox win three consecutive World Series, and I hope they beat the Cardinals to do it so you’ll have what you decided was ok to miss out on because it made sense in your own convoluted Moneyball brain (which you completely missed the point of) right in your face. And I hope the most obnoxious Sox fan in your life (redundant I know) never lets you hear the end of it. Lucky for me, I have about five of them, three of which work for this site. It’s what you and the Cubs deserve.