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Game #30 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: Spotlight – Let’s Save OEL

By Sam Fels 2687 0

One of the things that annoys fans of struggling teams, especially ones in non-traditional markets, is the fans and media of successful/big-market teams discussing, dreaming, and creating trade rumors and scenarios for their best players to get them to teams that they think they “belong” on. That it isn’t fair for that player to toil away in obscurity when he “should” be a Leaf/Hab/Hawk/ Ranger/Penguin so that his skills can be properly utilized. It’s as if some teams merely exist in the league to be a feeder for the more-watched and followed teams. They only exist to have their organs harvested. They are the inhabitants of “The Island.”

So let’s do that with Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Let’s be clear, there have been no credible rumors that the Coyotes are looking to trade OEL, nor has he asked out. In fact, the moves over the summer, particularly the acquisition of countryman Niklas Hjalmarsson, were made with him in mind. A partner he would love playing with, a couple veterans to boost the culture in the dressing room and show the promising kids the way a signal of intent.

Except it’s all gone balls-up.

Stepan has been ok, which means he’s been Derek Stepan. Hjalmarsson is hurt now, and when he wasn’t he was actually pretty shit. Raanta hasn’t been healthy and has only been ok when he’s been in the net. The Coyotes are marooned as the wooden spooners of the conference again, and they’re not even close to the Oilers in 14th. Their GM has gotten his coaching hire after moving Dave Tippett along, and Rick Tocchet may in fact be an idiot. So how long is the GM around for? He gets one more coaching hire, one would think, but he’s definitely on the clock.

And there are always the questions around the Yotes. No, they’re not going anywhere, but what is their internal budget? Max Domi, Tobias Rieder, and Anthony Duclair are due new deals after this season. Though they’ll all be restricted free agents, they’ll get raises. Can the payroll go too much above $65 million? 70?

OEL himself is up after next year, which is why this discussion will heat up, whether Coyotes fans like it or not. His value is basically going to be peak from the deadline to this summer. Even if OEL spent the rest of his career in the desert, they need another d-man who can be around for a decade. Maybe they’re set down the middle with Strome and Dvorak? Won’t know for a few years. Keller and Domi on the wings is certainly a nice start. But all of it suggest that the Coyotes are still two-three years away at best.

Which means OEL will be 30 when they play games that matter again. Perhaps he finally boils over.

But getting OEL is another trick. Trying to gauge what he might cost in a trade, Matt Duchene just netted the Avs three prospects, one on the blue line and two forwards. It also got them three draft picks. You could easily argue that a Larsson type–a dominant, fluid, top-pairing puck-mover–is an even rarer commodity than a Duchene. There are only a handful of d-men who do what OEL does. Three prospects, two of which are ready to be in the league now, and three picks seem the least OEL should bring back.

While he would solve just about every problem the Hawks have, you’d have to figure the price starts with Schmaltz and Debrincat and goes from there. These Hawks can’t really lose either. Could the Hawks just unload the pipeline, such as it is, and get it done? Kampf, Fortin, Jokiharju, and keep going from there? And picks on top of that?

It’s probably not enough, but if the Yotes are listening the Hawks should try. They only have a season or two, including this one, to make a real run with this group and then it’s all going to hell anyway. If you’re in it you’re in it. There will be years of cleanup anyway.

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Game #30 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour: Coach Q’s Communication Skills

By Sam Fels 2623 0

Little something different today, as the Yotes don’t really drum up the emotions. Though we could go off on Zac Rinaldo on another day. But this caught our eye yesterday:

What kind of horseshit is this? Let’s run through all the possibilities and just wonder how this benefits a young player who is only in his second year.

One, Hartman really was scratched due to a high-sticking penalty. A great majority of those are simply bad luck, as Hartman puts it. Trying to lift a stick, play the puck, falling over. This was the case on Wednesday, as Hartman never saw the player behind him. Is he really being punished for luck. How’s that going to instill any confidence in him when he returns to the ice?

Second possibility: No one’s told Hartman why he was scratched, so he’s left to guess why. How’s that help? What’s he going to work on? And if he thinks it’s because of a high-sticking penalty, what kind of message is he getting the rest of the time?

Third possibility: Q and/or the coaches have told Hartman why he’s been scratched–and they’d have plenty of ammo–and he still thinks this is the reason. So they have no idea how to get through to him. Or Hartman is just rock stupid and isn’t hearing what they’re saying.

If you want to know why young players have a tendency to stall-out on the Hawks after initial promise, might this be a clue? They’re not getting any message? Or the right one? Feel frozen out? Quite the insight a simple quote can give, no?

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Game #30 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1461 0

All stats at even-strength except where notes. Courtesy Corsica.hockey. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – December 9th

By Sam Fels 1320 0

First Screen Viewing

Jets vs. Lightning – 6pm

Everyone in Manitoba wants you to believe this is a Final preview. While NBC execs gag over the thought of that, this is two teams at the very top of the standings. The Jets are riding their goaltending and shooting a bit, but given the talent they have they should outshoot their percentages a little at least. The Lightning are where they deserve to be, and considering the amount of scoring talent on display here this one could go haywire. Or the Bolts could smack the shit out of them, either way.

Second Screen Viewing

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins – 6pm

It still doesn’t feel like it’s all quite clicking for the Pens yet, which makes their standing right in the muck of the Metro all the more scary. What happens if they do put it together? The Leafs are currently second in the East, and given that the Penguins love to be high-event these games tend to look like a speed binge. Hopefully the same tonight.

Other Games

Islanders vs. Bruins – 6pm

Oilers vs. Canadiens – 6pm

Avalanche vs. Panthers – 6pm

Devils vs. Rangers – 6pm

Coyotes vs. Jackets – 6pm

Knights vs. Stars – 7pm

Senators vs. Sharks – 9pm

Canucks vs. Flames – 9pm

Canes vs. Kings – 9:30

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – December 8th

By Sam Fels 1290 0

First Screen Viewing

Knights vs. Predators – 7pm

We’ll go with this one simply because if PK scores on his brother Malcolm, the celebration might go on until Saturday. And I’m here for it. I mean, what would you do if you scored on your brother in an NHL game? I’d have my own pyrotechnics.

Second Screen Viewing

Rangers v. Capitals – 6pm

It only seems like these two teams play 38 times a year. Last year we were spared another bore-fest from these two in the playoffs, which seemingly happened every year. It very well may happen again this year, though both would have to rise up on the Metro where the Jackets and Penguins are almost certainly better than they are. But it’s a light slate tonight.

Other Games

Jackets v. Devils – 6pm

Wild v. Ducks – 9pm

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks Preview/Foam Rollout: Do Something To Somebody Quick

By Sam Fels 1514 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sabres 7-17-4   Hawks 12-11-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THROUGH THE TABLE IN THE PARKING LOT: Die By The Blade

If the Hawks can’t get healthy now, then you might want to abandon all hope. They’ll begin a three-game homestand against the mat-shots of the league: the Sabres, Yotes, and Panthers. If you needed to work some shit out, start to gain a little confidence, and maybe find a slump-buster, you could hardly order this up better.

Once again, the Hawks will be rolling out a new look, including their first call-up of the season if you can believe it. Vinnie Smalls, a.k.a Vincent Hinostroza has come in from the cold, Rockford air to replace Tanner Kero on the roster. He immediately slots into the lineup, though where isn’t exactly clear as he wasn’t allowed to participate in the morning skate. Our best guess has him replacing Hartman at center between Sharp and Panik, but it could be anything. Because god forbid anyone on the juggernaut 4th line, with its 40 CF%, be replaced.

Other changes see Alex DeBrincat move into the top six. Real stroke of genius to get one of the league’s top rookie scorers there. He’ll play opposite Saad and next to Toews, which we’re actually kind of jonesing to see. It would work better if Saad and Top Cat would swap sides, but one thing at a time, people. The Schmaltz-Wide Dick Arty-Garbage Dick line is reunited, because they’re basically Q’s blanky right now. It doesn’t really add up, has its faults, but they did score when together before. And the Hawks need scoring.

Corey Crawford will return to the net, and if you’re thinking, “Man this seems quick,” you’d be right. The word earlier in the week was that he wouldn’t return until Sunday. But throw in a loss that had Q pretty pissed and purple, and suddenly you’ve got a panicky coach. And though you shouldn’t need Crawford against the Sabres, and though Forsberg has been pretty solid aside from one game in Denver and one bad goal in DC, Q isn’t waiting around, even if it shoots Forsberg’s confidence into the moon. Q thinks the Hawks need points and now, and he’s not totally wrong. But if Crow should re-aggravate something badly…

And again, you shouldn’t need major inspiration to find two points against this hillbilly station wagon that constitutes the Buffalo Sabres. This is the league’s worst team, which is a real disappointment for fans that thought they could maybe at least be representative this year. It’s been a mess, no one’s sure Phil Housley has any idea what he’s doing, and if there’s a plan in place no one can identify it. There’s still Jack Eichel, and he’s really good. The Other Asshole Kane is having a career year, which probably will get some team to hold their nose and pick him up before the deadline, and the Sabres had better turn that into assets for now and the future. Rasmus Ristolainen has had an upswing on the blue line this year, but that’s really it. We’ve always loved Kyle Okposo, but he’s on the third line at the moment. Ryan O’Reilly murders the Hawks, but is having a rough go at the moment, as he has two goals since November 11th and two points at all in his last seven. Aside from those names there is just nothing here.

Making it worse is that the Sabres goalies, which were pretty good last year, have not been this year. Robin Lehner has been terrible, and at 26 is running out of runway to claim he’s “The Real Thing.” Chad Johnson has been even worse. The last thing a bad team needs is bad goaltending, otherwise you get this current carcass smell.

Don’t have to overthink this one. The Sabres suck out loud, and theHawks need to get healthy on this part of the schedule. Rack up six of six before having to head to Winnipeg next week. Nothing less will do.

 

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks Preview/Foam Rollout: Do Something To Somebody Quick

By Sam Fels 1822 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sabres 7-17-4   Hawks 12-11-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THROUGH THE TABLE IN THE PARKING LOT: Die By The Blade

If the Hawks can’t get healthy now, then you might want to abandon all hope. They’ll begin a three-game homestand against the mat-shots of the league: the Sabres, Yotes, and Panthers. If you needed to work some shit out, start to gain a little confidence, and maybe find a slump-buster, you could hardly order this up better.

Once again, the Hawks will be rolling out a new look, including their first call-up of the season if you can believe it. Vinnie Smalls, a.k.a Vincent Hinostroza has come in from the cold, Rockford air to replace Tanner Kero on the roster. He immediately slots into the lineup, though where isn’t exactly clear as he wasn’t allowed to participate in the morning skate. Our best guess has him replacing Hartman at center between Sharp and Panik, but it could be anything. Because god forbid anyone on the juggernaut 4th line, with its 40 CF%, be replaced.

Other changes see Alex DeBrincat move into the top six. Real stroke of genius to get one of the league’s top rookie scorers there. He’ll play opposite Saad and next to Toews, which we’re actually kind of jonesing to see. It would work better if Saad and Top Cat would swap sides, but one thing at a time, people. The Schmaltz-Wide Dick Arty-Garbage Dick line is reunited, because they’re basically Q’s blanky right now. It doesn’t really add up, has its faults, but they did score when together before. And the Hawks need scoring.

Corey Crawford will return to the net, and if you’re thinking, “Man this seems quick,” you’d be right. The word earlier in the week was that he wouldn’t return until Sunday. But throw in a loss that had Q pretty pissed and purple, and suddenly you’ve got a panicky coach. And though you shouldn’t need Crawford against the Sabres, and though Forsberg has been pretty solid aside from one game in Denver and one bad goal in DC, Q isn’t waiting around, even if it shoots Forsberg’s confidence into the moon. Q thinks the Hawks need points and now, and he’s not totally wrong. But if Crow should re-aggravate something badly…

And again, you shouldn’t need major inspiration to find two points against this hillbilly station wagon that constitutes the Buffalo Sabres. This is the league’s worst team, which is a real disappointment for fans that thought they could maybe at least be representative this year. It’s been a mess, no one’s sure Phil Housley has any idea what he’s doing, and if there’s a plan in place no one can identify it. There’s still Jack Eichel, and he’s really good. The Other Asshole Kane is having a career year, which probably will get some team to hold their nose and pick him up before the deadline, and the Sabres had better turn that into assets for now and the future. Rasmus Ristolainen has had an upswing on the blue line this year, but that’s really it. We’ve always loved Kyle Okposo, but he’s on the third line at the moment. Ryan O’Reilly murders the Hawks, but is having a rough go at the moment, as he has two goals since November 11th and two points at all in his last seven. Aside from those names there is just nothing here.

Making it worse is that the Sabres goalies, which were pretty good last year, have not been this year. Robin Lehner has been terrible, and at 26 is running out of runway to claim he’s “The Real Thing.” Chad Johnson has been even worse. The last thing a bad team needs is bad goaltending, otherwise you get this current carcass smell.

Don’t have to overthink this one. The Sabres suck out loud, and theHawks need to get healthy on this part of the schedule. Rack up six of six before having to head to Winnipeg next week. Nothing less will do.

 

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks: Spotlight – A Rasmus For The Rest Of Us

By Sam Fels 1870 0

The Sabres have been thrashing about in the pool for a while now, seemingly never able to get their feet to the bottom of the pool or even tread water before they can start swimming. They have swayed from plan to plan and coach to coach and now GM to GM, and remain anchored to the bottom of the standings. If you squint, you can sort of see what they are trying to do. If you’re building a hockey team, you want a true #1 center, and maybe one more behind that. You want a surefire top pairing defenseman, though as the Penguins showed last year if you have two, genuine #1 centers, or more to the point two Hall of Fame centers, you don’t really need the d-man. And you’d like a goalie. The Sabres thought they had the goalie in Robin Lehner. That hasn’t worked out. They have the center in Jack Eichel. And they have another really good one in Ryan O’Reilly. And they told everyone they had the d-man in Rasmus Ristolainen.

The thing was, no one else believed them about Rasmus. We had seen him utterly dominate the World Juniors with our Dear Sweet Boy in Finland’s gold medal run of 2014 in Sweden. We knew about the draft pedigree. The size and skating ability are there for all to see.

But Rasmus never really put it together. All of his even-strength metrics for his entire career have been underwhelming, and that’s being kind. While the Sabres have sucked deep pond scum for years, Ristolainen couldn’t even match that. His relative Corsi ratings were -1.7, -0.57, -3.4, and -5.5. Again, that’s on some dog ass teams, but Rasmus couldn’t even manage “dog ass.” His relative xGF% marks weren’t any better. Again, they’re “sub-dog ass.”

Sabres fans, in their desperation most likely. would point to the last two seasons of 40+ points. However, of Ristolainen’s 86 points the past two seasons, 45 of them came on the power play. Rasmus’s even-strength numbers didn’t even crack the top 50 among d-men for even-strength scoring.

But…Rasmus seems to have turned a corner this year, even if his team remains steadfastly “dog ass.”

Ristolainen’s CF% is 50.6, and that’s above the team-rate by 1.7 points. His xGF% of 50.1 is miles above the team’s mark, by 8.36 points. That’s one of the best relative xGF% in the league. Ristolainen has seen his points per game drop, but that’s not really on him. Also, Rasmus is averaging way more attempts at even-strength himself than he ever has, he just can’t get any of them to go in. That will change.

More impressively, Ristolainen is taking on the toughest competition of his career and harder zone starts. He’s acting like a real live #1 d-man.

Perhaps Ristolainen being tossed in the deep end at 18 was a bit much to ask. Maybe it takes until the age of 23 to really figure out what’s going on. It’s only 27 games, and Rasmus will have to do this over a whole season. If he does though, he becomes one of the bigger bargains in the league. He signed an extension before last season that pays him $5.4 million per year for four more seasons after this one. Considering what the going rate is for top pairing d-men, that could end up a steal. That’s what happens when you pay for what you think a guy will do and get it right, instead of trying to compensate for what he’s done.

The Sabres still have a lot of pieces to fill in. They might not have another d-man on the roster who’s going to be there when they matter again. They are a few forwards short. But you’re definitely not going anywhere if you don’t have the big pieces solved. Check out the Oilers for more evidence. The Sabres might have been right all along.

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks: Q&A With Die By The Blade’s Melissa Burgess

By Sam Fels 1802 0

Melissa Burgess is a contributor to DieByTheBlade.com (still our favorite hockey blog name). You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess.

Maybe it only seems like the Sabres are in year 87 of a rebuild, but with names like O’Reilly, Eichel, Okposo, Ristolainen, Kane why has this season been such a balls-up?

Honestly, I wish I knew. I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t frustrating. Every season, we talk about the rebuild, and every season, the results are the same. This year realistically should be different. The Sabres have all this great offensive talent, like the names you mentioned, plus a new head coach in Phil Housley. But some nights, it seems like they’re just kind of skating around rather than actively playing the game, fighting for the puck, battling in the corners. The opposing team will score goals that leave me scratching my head, thinking “… how did [goalie] not save that?”
I don’t think anyone really expected the Sabres to be playoff contenders this year, but many expected them to at least battle, or be able to compete against other NHL teams. Instead, you’ve got all these seemingly-great players who are barely showing up. Eichel is hit-or-miss. It took O’Reilly seven games to get his first goal of the season, and Okposo 12 games. Overall, sometimes it seems like they lack heart. It doesn’t mean they want to lose, per se, but just that the passion and energy to win isn’t there.
Throw in more off-ice team-building exercises. Shake up line combinations in practice and in games and figure out what works. Make players want to be here, and make them want to fight for their spot. Do whatever it takes, because the team needs SOMETHING to get going here.
Speaking of Ristolainen, he’s in the top three in the league in minutes per game. But is he actually worthy of that kind of load?
 
The short answer, in my opinion, is… yes. As I write this, Ristolainen (27:00) is second in icetime leaguewide, behind only Ryan Suter. Suter’s averaged four seconds more ice time per game than Ristolainen, in eight more games played. He’s been a critical point of the Sabres’ defense and is really, observably, one of the anchors of Buffalo’s blue line. He’s also quite effective on the power play, with 10 shots and 2 takeaways with the man advantage this season.
Is it ideal to have one player skating in nearly half of every game? Probably not. Ristolainen actually played 30:42 in the win over Colorado on Tuesday night. Is there a concern about overworking him? Is it realistic that he could play those minutes every night? Probably not. But is he worth playing that much? Absolutely.
Before the draft of ’15, it felt as if Eichel was right there with McDavid. Run CMD has an MVP and 100-point season to his name. Eichel has had effective, quality seasons as well, but not quite the heights of McDavid. Is that a question of teammates? Just a different learning curve? Something else?
 
I understand where it’s easy for people to put Eichel and McDavid up next to each other, since they both came in the same draft year and all. But in reality, they’re two very different players. McDavid grew his offensive prowess playing in juniors alongside other young guns like Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. Eichel played in the USA Hockey system and only one year at Boston University.
Ultimately, I think what it comes down to is… well, a lot of things. First, you’ve got to consider the different conferences. Yes, you’re seeing a lot of the same opponents overall, but the styles of play and competition in the Eastern Conference as opposed to the Western Conference aren’t the same.  Look at the overall league standings from last season. Three of the top four teams in the league were from the Eastern Conference. Six of the league’s top ten scorers came from Western Conference teams. Do we ever take into consideration not just teammates, but who teams are playing against, and the level of competition there?
It’s also a matter of considering how they’re being used on their respective teams and alongside their teammates. Look at last season, for instance. McDavid had 100 points (30-70) in 82 games. He averaged 21:08 ice time per game. Eichel had 57 points in 61 games; if he had played a full season, that may have amounted to about 77 points in 82 games. His average ice time was 19:55, slightly less than McDavid. Of course, both have been playing on teams that are pretty much at the bottom of the league. McDavid is also significantly a passer, which is pretty evident by the fact that he had 70 assists last year. They’re just different players at the core, and they’re going to be utilized differently in different systems, and having unique learning curves.
With Evander Kane having the numbers he does and this being the last year of his deal, are the Sabres going to flog him for whatever they can get at the deadline?
 

I don’t think you can just let Kane go for anything. Botterill (Sabres GM) has to really carefully consider what he’s doing here. Yes, Kane is having a good year. Yes, this is the last year of his deal. But at what point do you decide “okay, this package is good enough to make this trade” over “we’re going to try and re-sign him?”

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded at the deadline, but the problem with that is, you may not get as much for him since he could end up just being a rental player somewhere else. Focusing on his on-ice skills, Kane’s one of the best players on the Sabres right now – you can’t just give him up for nothing.

 
If you were GM, what are you doing to move this thing along so the Sabres can once again be a playoff team in what is a pretty crap division?
 
Night in and night out, I seem to be saying the same thing as I watch games: something’s gotta give. Okay, maybe I’ve been saying that for years now. And the team has tried different things – new coaches, new players – but the bottom line is, they can’t keep being at the bottom of the league, and the division. It’s obviously easier for a team to let go of one coach versus swapping out 20+ players, but getting rid of the coach isn’t always the right answer. Players have to be committed to the team’s system, and have to want to succeed. Right now there’s a level of frustration building around this team, and although the circumstances aren’t great, maybe that frustration is exactly what they need, to give them that extra spark, that extra push.
If I’m GM, I think I’m trying to move Robin Lehner for the right price. He’s played most of the Sabres’ games this season but still fails to show consistency and lets in a lot of goals that shouldn’t have been. I’m also getting Josh Gorges out of the picture, as he really just seems to be slowing down the team’s defense. I think the other thing that can be done is to really make guys fight for their roster spots. Just the other night, Zemgus Girgensons was a healthy scratch. He has four points this season and, quite frankly, needs to be doing more. So you scratch him, have him sit a game or two, and hope that brings some spark when he returns.