Sam Fels – Page 140 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Spotlight: And Dear Rant-Boy

By Sam Fels December 21, 2018 1467 0

There were obviously huge hopes for Mikko Rantanen. He was the Avs first-round pick just three years ago. He comes in a big package, at 6-4 and 215 pounds. And he’s a mobile one at that. While the Avs may have been tempted to bring him to Denver immediately, they took their time and let him have a first season in the AHL. He dominated there, with 60 points in 52 games. At the age of 19, no less.

His first season only showed flashes, with 38 points. His second season was a breakthrough, with 84 points. Though some probably viewed that as just riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon and his MVP-worthy season. They probably weren’t expecting something historic.

But that’s what they’re getting.

Rantanen has 58 points through 35 games. At this rate, he would finish with 135 points. No one has managed that many since the Great Lockout of ’05. The best anyone’s done is Joe Thornton‘s 125 in the first season out of it. 135 would be the most since Mario Lemieux‘s 161 in ’95-’96. Just for giggles, MacKinnon is also on pace for 128, which would best anything since that mark as well, aside from Jaromir Jagr‘s 127 in ’98-’99.

Perhaps it’s not a huge surprise that someone is scoring at this rate. For the third straight season, scoring is up, and for the second straight it’s above three goals per game per team. It’s about 3.09 this year, and in the year Lemieux put up his 161 it was 3.14. It’s only a difference of about 2%. Of course, goalies weren’t anything like this, and we know teams are going to key on MacKinnon and Rantanen for the rest of the season.

There would be some claims that this is partially due to luck, and that may play a small role. The Avs are shooting 11.3% at even-strength when Rantanen is on the ice, up from 9.6% last year and 8.0% in his rookie year. But that’s just a steady increase, as Rantanen begins to feel the NHL game more and more. It’s also not an outlandish number. It only ranks 41st in the league. It’s certainly a number that can be maintained for a whole season, as the leaders are usually in the 12-14% area.

What might get Rantanen is the Avs are greatly outscoring the chances he and MacKinnon are providing. Their xGF/60 is nothing to write home about at 2.45. But the Avs are scoring at 3.87 per 60 minutes. It’s the 12th biggest difference among any player who has played 300 minutes at even-strength this season. Rantanen and MacKinnon will always, most likely, outscore what their chances suggest they “should” score, given their talent. But this might be excessive.

It’s the same story on the power play, where the Avs are shooting 19.3% when Rantanen is out there, but it’s hardly excessively more than the 18% they shot last year. The Avs have a xGF/60 of 7.14 on the power play, but are scoring per 60 on the power play at 10.9. Again, given the talent it’s not a surprise that the Avs can outshoot their chances on the power play, but by three goals per 60 minutes? It’s one of the higher differences in the league.

Still, it would be good for the league for a player, or two, to keep putting up boxcar numbers. It could use the publicity. It works out well for Rantanen too, as his entry-level deal expires after this season. The Avs thought they might save themselves by keeping him in the AHL for a year. It might force them to pay Auston Matthews/Connor McDavid money. That $6.3M they’re paying MacKinnon sure looks a bargain now, eh?

Game #38 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Q&A: The Scourge Of The Earth

By Sam Fels December 21, 2018 1556 0

We traveled deep into the jungle, past his many followers who eyed us warily, to find the warlord Anthrax Jones. He was kind enough to grant us this, and we had to exit quickly before being disemboweled.

So Rantanen and MacKinnon were awesome last year, and MacK could have easily won the Hart. But they’re both on points for 130+ points this year? Why is this line putting a foot in the ass of the world?

If you did an Inception-style deep dive into Don Cherry’s wettest dream, MacRantaskog would be in it: open mouth-kissing policemen, playing with Blue, and wearing suits made out of the furniture in Dom DeLuise’s opium den. Mikko Rantanen has evolved from Large Baby Deer into Jaromir Jagr’s blonde, blue-eyed second cousin. Defending Nate MacKinnon is the hockey equivalent of trying to catch a fire hose with a goldfish net, and Babe Landeskog’s good looks distract from the fact that he’s morphed into a Marian Hossa/Richard Kuklinski hybrid. This line has everything all the old school shitheads like to burp up every time some weepy Canucks fan starts pissing through their butthole about what a pretty finesse game the Sedins played. They’re talented, fast, and all three of them play with varying degrees of open hostility. I love them a lot.

It felt like the Avs wanted to transition from Varlamov in net to Phillip Grubauer, but Grubs hasn’t really grabbed that brass ring in limited appearances this season. Are they just going to have to ride it out with Varlamov?

Sure beats riding it out with Cal Pickard or the Hamburglar. Varlamov is who he is: occasionally spectacular, occasionally a Farrelly Brothers script. When he’s hot, he’s a top 3 goalie in the league. When he’s not, he’s every goalie the Flyers have run out since Ron Hextall. Grubauer has had his moments where he looks good and his moments where he looks like he’s playing behind Patrik Nemeth and Mark Barberio, because that’s what he’s doing. If the Avs are gonna do anything in May, they’re gonna need one of them to go full 2003 JS Giguere.

With the top line doing what they’re doing they should be gobbling up the toughest opponents every night. Yet no one has been able to really benefit yet. Is this where Tyson Jost or someone else should come in?

In theory, yes. In practice, you’re relying on the entirety of your depth scoring to come from second year pros (Jost, Kerfoot, Compher), waiver wire guys (Andrighetto), An Actual Cyclops (Soderberg), and Colin Wilson. This year is “sit tight and see what we have with the young guys”, and next year is where they go out and overpay a UFA.

Samuel Girard seems to have at least established himself in the top four, no?

The Duality Of Man: I love Girard and I love his game and I love his potential, yet I spent the late 90’s with a recurring grundle cramp because every time Sandis Ozolinsh touched the puck, my sphincter collapsed into itself at roughly the speed and density of a dying star. Girard may not have the offensive upside of Ozolinsh, and may not have the defensive downside of Ozolinsh, but I can foresee a scenario where he becomes Ozolinsh 2020. I’m too old for that type of gooch pain, so let’s hope he doesn’t.

Game #38 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Douchebag Du Jour: The Irrelevancy Of The Avs

By Sam Fels December 21, 2018 1520 0

If you’re of a certain age, you think of the Colorado Avalanche as a villain, You were a fan when they carpetbagged their way into the Western Conference from Quebec, the fully formed monster simply bestowed upon Denver. You remember how they eliminated whatever chance those mid-90s Hawks teams had, which was basically miracle-ing their ass past the Red Wings somehow. You remember how they routinely bashed the brains in of the Hawks.

If you want to get more detailed you remember Tony Amonte shredding his knee in ’96, costing the Hawks any chance they had of winning that series. Or Gary Suter getting mugged at his own blue line to turn Game 5. Or Eddie Belfour furiously searching for the puck in double-OT as Sandis Ozolinch rammed it home to end that era for the Hawks.

You remember the two parades the Avs got, feeling like they never earned it. They weren’t worthy. It seemed so unfair.

Fear not, because since that era, there has been no team more irrelevant than the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avs got Ray Bourque his Cup in 2001. Their defense of it went to the conference final next year before losing to the Red Wings, again. And they haven’t been to a conference final since. 16 years and counting since the Avs saw the final four. Here’s a list of teams that have also not made a conference final in that time:

Florida Panthers

Columbus Blue Jackets

New York Islanders

That’s it.

In that time, you can hardly think of a player or two that define them. Joe Sakic was gone in 2009. Peter Forsberg before that. Does Matt Duchene really move the needle? Gabriel Landeskog? Not until Nathan MacKinnon shows up, and we still don’t know what that will be yet.

The Panthers and Jackets don’t have any pedigree. The Islanders’ is buried in the past. Too much longer, and the Avs will get to say the same as well.

Game #38 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels December 21, 2018 1252 0

Game #38 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #38 – Hawks vs. Avalanche: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels December 21, 2018 1328 0

Notes: There was talk that Head Coach Cool Youth Pastor would wheel Ward right back out there last night. That shouldn’t happen. A.) Ward will blow B). You’ve got a free hit here to see what Delia has for however long. If he can’t handle it, send him back down to season. If he runs with it, then you’ve got an out here. If he’s your guy going forward, let’s find out.

Notes: The Avalanche don’t really have 2nd-4th lines. It’s the top unit and then nine more forwards, and depending on the night their use will change…Kerfoot doesn’t have a point in his last eight…It feels like Wilson used to murder the Hawks, but those days seem to be over…Samuel Girard is kind of the shit…Laxative Log has six goals in his last five games…Zadorov is out tonight so Barberio is the likely replacement, though it could be Lindholm…

Game #38 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – December 20th

By Sam Fels December 20, 2018 1106 0

First Screen Viewing

Lightning vs. Flames – 8pm

Those clad in red will tell you this is possibly a Final preview. The Flames might have to sort out their defensive problems for that to happen, but these are two top-five teams in the league. Certainly it’s a test for Calgary, as the Lightning are humming just about as well as anyone has in years. Some hockey fans have complained they haven’t seen a historically good team like the Warriors in their league. They might have one now, 126 points would be quite the statement, and that’s what the Lightning are on pace for.

Second Screen Viewing

Jets vs. Sharks – 9:30

Now this looks like a preview of what’s to come in the spring. The Sharks are starting to tune it up, They’ve won five in a row and seven of nine, They’ve outscored those last five victims 24-10 in those games. The Jets have won five of six, somehow dropping one to the Kings last out. They’ve won nine of 12. Big night in the West.

Other Games

Ducks vs. Bruins – 6pm

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

Predators vs. Flyers – 6pm

Wild vs. Penguins – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Devils vs. Jackets – 6pm

Canadiens vs. Coyotes – 8pm

Blues vs. Canucks – 9pm

Islanders vs. Knights – 9pm

Everything Else

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Stars Preview/Hard Eight Appreciation Society: The More You Know

By Sam Fels December 20, 2018 2125 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 11-19-6 Stars 17-14-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SOME WERE SHOUTIN’ “TEXAS #1!”: Defending Big D

I don’t know if a team rooted to the bottom of the standings, with the worst goal-difference in the league by open lengths, can have anything resembling “momentum.” Especially when it was only two games ago it gave up a touchdown and PAT while their goalie sank back into the abyss. But hey, the Hawks played what may have been their most solid game all season against the (admittedly beat-up) Predators. And though there isn’t much to make out of the rest of the season, they won’t feel that way. So hence, they will try to build on it in North Texas, facing the same confounding Stars team they always find there.

If you thought the Predators were injury-filled, wait until you get a load of these guys. The Stars have used 12 d-men so far this season. Now you may think, “Wait a minute, the Hawks have used 10! So is 12 really that much!” Well, the Stars have had to go through their entire organizational depth on the blue line because of injuries, not because they’ve populated it with a collection of fuckwits and jackwagons.

John Klingberg has been out for weeks, but he returns tonight, so that’s great for the Hawks. So has Marc Methot and Connor Carrick, though I leave it to you to decide if that means anything, or should. Stephen Johns hasn’t played a game due to concussion problems. Klingberg has obviously been the big miss, as he’s one of the best puck-movers and passers in the league. The Stars base most of their offense on what he can do, and he can’t do anything from the trainer’s room.

And yet, with all that the Stars have been a top-10 team in goals-against at evens and overall. A lot of that is THE BISHOP! having an excellent season. Some of that is Jim Montgomery being able to keep whatever defensive unit he has on a given night playing a tight system. Or maybe it’s still the frame of Hitchcock lingering around. Either way, the Starts have survived.

Up front, it’s basically Colorado-Lite. There’s a great top line here of Jamie Benn–Tyler Seguin-Alex Radulov. While Seguin couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean right now, compared to his career shooting-percentage, these are three players over 25 points. The next forward on the list is Jason Spezza at 18, and he’s sick anyway and might not play tonight either, aside from being three days older than water. This has been the issue for the Stars for years, that they can’t seem to produce a second line, much less a third, that can support the top one. We go into this heavier in the Spotlight, but all the kids the Stars were depending on have basically gone flaccid.

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom, or meh and feh as has been the Stars case. Rookie Miro Heiskanen is making everyone go weak in the knees, and will dovetail nicely with Klingberg as a support, second-pairing player. Taylor Fedun has been an analytic revelation filling in for the depleted defense. Which is a good thing, because when you’re rolling out Roman Polak with a straight face, you’re supposed to be in trouble. And we mean literally “rolling,” because Polak can’t skate. He’s basically what Donkey Kong throws on the ice now.

All that said, the Stars are still aimed for another 88-92 points season without a jolt somewhere here soon, the same kind of season that no on remembers when it’s over. It’s also the kind of season that doesn’t push a team forward. This is not a rebuilding team blooding a lot of new kids. They won’t be bad enough to get a real piece in the draft that can help in the next couple years. They’re not contending for banners. They’re just scenery right now, and that’s the absolute worst place to be.

As for the Hawks, you would think changes would be on the minimum. Cam Ward looks to start, which means Collin Delia gets to deal with Galactus’s playthings tomorrow night in Denver in the form of MacKinnon and Rantanen, which seems a tad harsh for a second NHL start. Given the defensive effort on Tuesday, one would imagine there would be no changes there. So Brandon Manning can continue to blame everyone else while munching popcorn. Marcus Kruger didn’t make the mini-trip, and SuckBag was called up yesterday and he’ll probably slot in ahead of Chris Kunitz, because no one wants to watch Chris Kunitz ever again.

This is where we usually try and include some sort of higher meaning to the game and streak the Hawks are on. There isn’t any. They were enjoyable to watch on Tuesday. Let’s hope they are enjoyable tonight.

Game #37 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Stars Spotlight: The May Never Be Ready For Primetime Players

By Sam Fels December 20, 2018 1830 0

You have to hand it to the Dallas Stars. It seems every couple of seasons, maybe more often, they’re ready to shed their skin. First they were going to be the Run n’ Gun n’ Fun team under Lindy Ruff. Then when that didn’t go anywhere they were going to be a more solid unit under Ken Hitchcock that took its limited opportunities while boring the lower intestines out of everyone. And then that didn’t work so they went outside the box to the University of Denver for Jim Montgomery. And lo and behold…they’re on pace for the same 85-92 points they seemingly always get and never go anywhere. They’re just south of the Wild in the consistency standings, and right there with them in the “Never Do Anything That Matters” standings. Kind of symbolic.

While Jim Nill always wins the Best Offseason GM Award, nothing ever seems to really change on the ice when the season starts. The thought was that Hitchcock was too conservative for the modern game, and that he didn’t really get through to younger players who want to get up the ice more often and faster than Jabba The Hitch would ever be comfortable with.

And yet so far this season, under the supposed forward-thinking Montgomery, the Stars get less attempts, less shots, less goals, and less chances than they did last year under Hitch. They’re not even getting as good of goaltending as they did, and wouldn’t you know it, they’re on pace for 89 more irrelevant points as a team that neither makes them a contender or puts them anywhere in the draft to make a difference next year.

So what’s the problem here? It’s not the top line, which has produced every year as long as Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn have been together. Now they have Alex Radulov joining the fun. It’s not the goalies, as Ben Bishop has a .920 this year and has been more than solid in his time in Texas.

So scrape beneath that just a bit, and you see the young players that the Stars have pinpointed and hoped would pick up the secondary scoring, and you start to find some answers.

Devin Shore: Second round pick in 2012, point-per-game or thereabouts for three seasons in the NCAA. Had injury problems in his first season as a pro in the AHL but still was a point-per-game when he was around there. Has put up 24 goals and 55 points in two NHL seasons and this year is on pace for…the same 13 goals and 32-ish points that weren’t enough to be a second line player in the first place.

Radek Faksa: 1st round pick in 2012. Impressive numbers in junior. Good enough in his first season as a pro to spend half the year in Dallas. 17 goals last year in his first full-season in the NHL, looks set for bigger things. On pace for barely 14 goals this year while only just averaging a shot-on-goal per game.

Mattias Janmark: Picked up from the Red Wings in what was thought to be something of a steal. Very good numbers in Sweden. Went from 15 goals to 19 goals last year and looked to be a genuine second-line player. Has two goals this year and like Faksa, is barely registering a shot per game.

Brett Ritchie: 2nd round pick in 2011. Two-time member of Canada’s WJC team. Bounced between the AHL and NHL for a few seasons. Put up 16 goals last year in his first full foray into the big-time. Has two goals this year and is basically a 13th or 14th forward.

Val Nichushkin: Looked to be a real ass-kicker in his rookie year with 14 goals in ’13-’14. Missed almost all of the next year with a terrible injury, never really looked recovered the next season, fucked off back to Russia for two years, and has yet to score this term.

Honka! Honka! (Julius Honka): 1st round pick in 2014. Tore up the OHL in his one year there. Always thought that Ruff and Hitchcock wouldn’t give him the time of day because of just being a young d-man. Has four points this season though with some promising underlying numbers. Stars needed him to push the play beneath John Klingberg and especially in his absence. Hasn’t really happened. Now behind Miro Heiskanen on the depth-chart

And once again, the Stars are a top line, Klingberg (when healthy) and that’s it. They hope they’ve cracked the code on defense with Miro Heiskanen, and maybe they have But until they finally produce a second line from somewhere, they seem destined to be scenery in the Central Division.

Game #37 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #37 – Hawks vs. Stars Q&A: Taylor Baird of DefendingBigD.com

By Sam Fels December 20, 2018 2102 0

Taylor is the editor-in-chief at DefendingBigD.com. You can follow her on Twitter @TaylorDBaird.

The Stars switched from Ken Hitchcock to Jim Montgomery before the season. What’s the biggest change you’ve noticed from the two coaches, other than the team playing hockey that doesn’t feel like an existential crisis?

It’s hard to tell what Monty wants this team to be as they’ve been absolutely devastated by injuries on the backend. They’ve been without John Klingberg for 6+ weeks, longer for Connor Carrick and Marc Methot. Stephen Johns has yet to play a game this season. At one point, 12D on the depth chart was playing in the top six at the NHL level. That is…less than ideal. They’ve been one of the best defensive teams even with all those injuries, so it’s safe to say being responsible in their own end is part of the identity. The offensive side of the puck is less clear, as Dallas relies on their blue line to generate offense, and with that position decimated by injury…

Seems like everyone is awfully excited about Miro Heiskanen down there…

All aboard the Heiskanen hype train! He looks like a veteran out there, and as he’s been thrust into a 1D role with all those injuries, he’s only grown in confidence. He has the trust of the coaching staff and is a big part of the Stars being a top 10 PK team. His game is already close to complete, and he’s drawn comparisons to Nicklas Lidstrom and Scott Niedermayer. He’s only 19.

The Stars have been waiting for a bust-out from the likes of Faksa, Janmark, and Shore for what feels like forever. Is this all they are by now?

Maybe? Faksa seemed to have a bit more spark when he was shifted to wing last game, so maybe his scoring comes back a touch. He’s still one of the best shutdown forwards the Stars have, and having a guy that’s been in the discussion of Selke nominations last season is not anything to sneeze at. Janmark and Shore are likely what they are now, though if they had a more shoot-first linemate maybe they’d find some apples more often as they both make some good plays.

Tyler Seguin‘s shooting percentage seems to have cratered. Just bad luck or is there something in his game?

He’s having the worst of luck. He’s not going to shoot at a career low percentage for too long. He’s due for a hot streak, and there’s no better time than the present to get that going with Dallas finally getting some time at home instead of spending like 30 of 52 days on the road or something.

Game #37 Preview Suite