Everything Else

Still doing it. Let’s get through it.

The Dizzying Highs

Brendan Perlini – Four goals in three games will get you here. Sure, his charge and stretch for a hat trick last night with three seconds left was downright comedic, but hat tricks are special and he’s hardly the first or last (and how many tantrums have we seen Christiano Ronaldo throw when a player doesn’t serve him up his hat trick? It’ll look the same when he goes to prison). Bring Perlini up to 11 for the year, which seems a decent total for what should be a third-liner. Which is what he almost certainly is going forward on a team that’s intent on doing something that matters. The one game he didn’t score his coach called his best, and a 62% share backs that up.

Is he more? These last 13 games might say more than you’d think. Of course we’ve seen plenty of players pile the goals in when the games stopped mattering, and then the next season they returned to a faceless part of the rabble. We’ve also seen players like Patrick Sharp drive hard in the season’s last throes to achieve some benchmark–with Sharp it was 20 goals in 2007–and then use that as a platform to become A THING. Perlini is only 22, which is easy to forget. He’s getting a chance to play with real talent in Top Cat and Strome, and in their few games together he’s lifted their peripherals to heights they weren’t getting to with Dominik Kahun.

I don’t know if Perlini will ever be a real piece. He might be Jack Skille with assignments (Skille never really got a look on a top six, nor did he deserve to) What I do know is he has the type of speed that the Hawks need more of, and put him in position he does seem to have a sense on how to get the puck in the net. There are worse uses for these last stretch of games than to audition Perlini.

The Terrifying Lows

Draft Position – There’s not really much else to put here when you’ve won all three games this week, and this matters to a lot of people. The way things are going, the Hawks could draft anywhere from 7th-12th, and maybe even lower. The schedule remains pretty damn soft until the last week, so who knows how silly this will get? Are you likely to get an immediate difference-maker drafting 9th? You are not. Can you package the 9th pick with say, Jokiharju or Beaudin or Boqvist to get you one? Yes, yes you can. Which is what the Hawks should be thinking about. But in reality, losing every game from here on out and drafting 4th would be better. long-term. But they’re not going to do that, so we need to deal with what is.

The Creamy Middles

Jonathan Toews – It’s hard to believe that Captain Marvel could easily reach career-highs in goals and points this year (though it’s important to note that in the season-in-a-can of 2013 Toews played at a 40-43-83 pace). Don’t fool yourself, it’s come at a sacrifice of some of his all-around game. But the game now is about offense, and if he had a better blue line behind him you wouldn’t mind as much. Another four points this week, and though things are reversed now where teams are throwing their best at Kane and Toews can clean up against lesser now, you still have to do that. The way we talk about him makes him out to be 35 or 42 years old. He’s only 30. There’s still some planning to be done around him.

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

It’s not that these two have much to play for. The Bolts could have quit somewhere around Valentine’s Day, gone to the beach, called up the entire AHL team, and brought everyone back to round into shape in April and still be top of the league. The Leafs are locked into a first-round date with the Bruins yet again (and you can be sure if they get past them this time there will be another “THEY SLAYED THE DRAGON” call), and the only thing left to decide who has home ice. If that’s a big deal, which it probably isn’t. Still, when two of the top five get together, you have to imagine they’ll be up for it. This might be a good time for Mike Babcock to see if he has it in him to just see if his team can outrun the Lightning. They aren’t going to be able to defend them. There are no statement games, but neither will take it off either.

Second Screen Viewing

Hurricanes vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Our favorite sons don’t have anything sewn up yet, though clocking the Predators on the road sure helped. They’re in the first wild card spot, which is the bare minimum as being the last one in just means getting walloped by the Lightning and that’s no prize at all. They’re sandwiched between the Isles and Pens, so there’s work to be done. The Avs have more work to do, two points out and the Yotes to leapfrog. Two teams that don’t slow it down at altitude.

Other Games

Blue Jackets vs. Islanders – 6pm

Senators vs. Flyers – 6pm

Sharks vs. Wild – 7pm

Rangers vs. Oilers – 8pm

Everything Else

vs.

RECORDS: Coyotes 34-29-5   Hawks 29-30-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY CALL THEM THE DESERT DOGS: Five For Howling

The Hawks are going to tell you they’re not done yet. They are, but we’ll excuse them if it makes doing their jobs easier if they believe it’s for something. So with the Yotes on the schedule twice, the Avs on the schedule twice, and the Canucks on their once in the next two weeks, the Hawks can at least make things passably interesting by winning all of those games, as well as finding a way to steal two points out of either Montreal or Toronto. Then we’ll just where they are, but that’s that kind of run it’s going to take. And no overtime bullshit, in the words of Cuervo Jones.

It starts tonight with the second visit of the Arizona Coyotes, who are sitting right on the shoulder of the Minnesota Wild in the last playoff spot, one point with one game in hand. If results go their way tonight they will wake up in the morning in the playoffs. It’s certainly not what you were expecting.

So how did they get here, with this beautiful house and beautiful wife? The headline is Darcy Kuemper, who is the latest goalie to find himself in the desert. Since the turn of the calendar he’s been unconscious, with a .925 SV% and having won nine of his last 10 starts. When you’re getting that goaltending, you don’t have to do too much else. Which is good, because the Coyotes don’t really.

They’re a middling possession team, and still have been since Kuemper went supernova. Even in the last month their in the bottom half of the league in Corsi and scoring chances and shooting-percentage. It’s Kuemper pulling an Atlas act for the most part. What they do have is just enough pieces to get just enough goals and just enough speed to make things uncomfortable for teams, especially ones as slow as the Hawks are. There’s Keller on the first line, Crouse and Archibald on the second, Galchenyuk on the third, and Vinnie Bag O’ Donuts on the 4th. All have 10 goals or more, along with Brad Richardson‘s 16, and though none are stars (there’s still hope for Keller) there’s competence everywhere. No black holes, as it were.

The only true star is on the back end in Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has combined wonderfully with Niklas Hjalmarsson. They take the hardest shifts in terms of place and opponent, and they still turn the ice over. It’s infuriating. Alex Goligoski has apparently gotten over just a rotten start to his Yotes career the past two years, with the help of possible-stalwart Jakob Chychrun and his missing vowels. Having Jason Demers on your third-pairing is a real treat, and this is the understated strength of the team. They’re not the Hurricanes or anything, but they’re a hell of a way ahead of the Hawks in that category.

For the Hawks, they’ll basically aim to keep things as they’ve been. Corey Crawford will get a chance to build on what was his easiest start of the year, as will the Hawks on that defensive effort. The only other change you might see is Slater Koekkoek in for either Dahlstrom or Forsling, but even that isn’t all that likely.

As strange as it may sound, the Yotes are a tougher match up for the Hawks than the Stars. Whereas Dallas has really nothing below the top two lines, the Coyotes at least have more speed than that. Galchenyuk, Richardson, Hinostroza, Fischer are all lurking in the bottom six, and the thought of Michael Grabner bearing down on Seabrook’s side at any point is one that will start to bend the dimensions in your mind. While they’re not lethal, they have potential, and with the way Kuemper is going they don’t need a lot. Then again, the Yotes are in St. Louis tomorrow night and may save Kuemper for that, and the Hawks could benefit from getting a look at a backup (Calvin Pickard) for the second straight game. The Blues one is clearly the harder one. We’ll see later on.

If they’re going to insist on doing something silly, then it started on Thursday. It’s going to be near impossible, but why should anything else make sense this season?

 

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This won’t make for easy reading for Hawks fans. We aren’t here to tell you what you want to hear.

We’ve made the case all season that if there were a “Rod Langway” Award, that is if the best defensive defenseman were given an award along with or in place of the Norris–where the d-man who just accumulates the most points wins–, then Niklas Hjalmarsson would probably collect it. In a season where the Hawks have struggled so completely defensively, that can be painful to admit.

Let’s go over the numbers again. Hammer starts the 5th-highest percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone among blue-liners in the league. But whereas most of those d-men are merely trying to build a ditch and just let not disaster strike, Hjalmarsson and his partner Oliver Ekman-Larsson have been able to push the play the other way as well as anyone even though they have the farthest to go. Even with the dungeon shifts, Hjalmarsson has the ninth-best relative xGF% in relation to his team in the league. When it comes to just goals-against, Hammer has the best mark relative to his team in the league. Even though he starts in his own zone as much as anyone, he’s hardly giving up any chances. He’s the ultimate tease.

The temptation is to toss the responsibility onto OEL, as he is one of the better puck-movers in the league. And some of OEL’s numbers do improve away from Hammer’s while the latter’s sink. They collect a 51.3% Corsi-share together, where OEL is at 52.4% without Hammer and 50.4% vice versa. However, it’s the opposite when it comes to actual shots, further showcasing how Hjalmarsson limits chances. OEL’s scoring chance-percentage is actually worse away from Hjalmarsson, and Hjalmarsson’s high-danger chance share is a few points higher away from OEL than it is when they’re together. Hammer is helping OEL just as much as the other way around, which is certainly the big reason the Coyotes made this trade in the first place.

That shouldn’t be an indictment on Connor Murphy, though some will take it as such. Hammer looked as off the pace as anyone in 2017 while the Hawks were getting aerated by the Predators. The thought was after three long playoff runs, the miles on the odometer had taken a toll that was just not going to be undone. Perhaps Duncan Keith‘s wear was having a greater effect on Hammer than could be realized, which has been borne out in subsequent seasons.

It was thought that Hjalmarsson’s style of being more stationary, more physical and taking literally thousands of flung rubber to his body would see him decompose pretty quickly. And it still might. It was thought Connor Murphy could fill the role with greater mobility, and he still might. The signs on the latter are encouraging, as Murphy has had to make do with Carl Dahlstrom and Slater Koekkoek and various other rodeo clowns. But that’s still a very hard sell to a lot of watchers.

As for now, it’s probably just best to marvel at the recovery Hjalmarsson has made and the uniqueness of what he’s accomplishing this season. It’s better to trade a player too early than too late, which is the decision Stan Bowman made. But sometimes when you do that, the payoff doesn’t come for a little longer than you guessed.

 

 

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Catherine Silverman covers the Yotes for The Athletic, as well as working as a goalie expert of In Goal Magazine. You can follow her on Twitter @CatMSilverman. 

The Yotes have hung around the playoff picture, and yet they don’t have anyone who has scored over 42 points. Is this all or mostly Darcy Kuemper‘s resurgence?

So, let me preface this as saying that I think that Darcy Kuemper has been a really solid part of the team this year. He’s had his moments that put your heart in your throat, but he’s internalized the need to play well for the team’s playoff hopes and gotten the job done. 

That being said, I think that the biggest contributor to their success has been their scoring depth. They don’t have anyone over 42 points, but they have 11 players with 20 or more points and 10 players with 10 or more goals. In comparison, the Blackhawks have a 96-point getter, but also only have 10 players with 20 or more points — and they only have eight players with 10 or more goals. It’s why the Dallas Stars have a 61-point player in Tyler Seguin, but are still hanging around Arizona; they only have five players with 10 or more goals. 

While the more top-heavy teams live and die by the success of their stars, Arizona has been getting effective middle-six production from… well, everyone. Add in their injuries (if you project players like Schmaltz, Richardson, Galchenyuk, and Grabner onto an 82-game season, they’d all be sitting on much higher point totals) and their success makes a lot more sense. 

In my opinion

Look, we like Connor Murphy. We may be the only ones, but we’ll hold on. But we can’t help but notice the metrics that Niklas Hjalmarsson is turning in these days. Starting in his own zone most of the time, against the toughest competition, and turning it around. Is that to do with playing with Ekman-Larsson? Because Hammer was starting to turn here before the trade…

I think it has a bit to do with it, but Ekman-Larsson certainly isn’t propping Hjalmarsson up if that’s what you’re insinuating. Isolated on his own, Nik has been one of Arizona’s best players all year; he’s looking incredibly effective, and very much like the player that Chicago initially signed to his current deal. 

It’s possible that the rest from no playoffs last year combined with missed time for injury legitimately gave him enough rest to refuel his tank. Whatever it is, though, he’s looking fantastic.  

We were also Alex Galchenyuk fans and though Arizona got the better of that deal. He’s produced ok, been hurt a bit, but maybe not yet what we were thinking. What is he to someone who watches him far more?

He’s been exactly what the team traded for. After missing the start of the season for injury, he had a bit of a slow start — understandable when coming in with the season in full swing on a brand-new team. 

In the last few months, though, he’s been one of their best players. He’s excellent on the power-play, has 15 goals and 36 points in 57 games (which would be 43 points if he’d missed no time, putting him over that 42-point threshold), and has won 46 percent of his face-offs — his highest percentage in three years. 

Since February 1st, he’s put up seven goals and 11 points in 17 games. If he can continue to perform on the power-play like he has lately — and, frankly, continue to set up plays for Clayton Keller like he has been, even when it doesn’t get him a point on the board — he’ll continue to prove to be a fantastic add for the team. 

Three points out, game in hand on the Wild, 15 to go. Can the Yotes do it?

Three points out and two games in hand now, since the Wild forgot they were playing tonight. But I’d say at this point, it’s really anyone’s game — meaning that I won’t be putting money on Arizona, but I won’t be surprised at all if they make it either. 

Jason Demers is healthy again. Michael Grabner is healthy again. Antti Raanta is getting close. They’ve survived the first of potentially four to six weeks without Derek Stepan, and only lost one game in the process. I think if they put up the kind of performance they did down the back stretch last year, especially with Colorado losing one of their own top-heavy talents and Minnesota and Dallas struggling with consistency, they could easily slip their way in. 

 

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We reveled, perhaps a bit too much in hindsight, in what appeared to be an overmatched Rick Tocchet behind the Coyotes bench last year. He appeared to be an idiot in Tampa when he had to take over for an admittedly giant mess caused by Barry Melrose. And despite what looked like a fair collection of young talent in the desert, the Coyotes finished up the track once again. As the Yotes have been something of a nuisance to everyone–with their constant stability issues and even bigger issues remaining relevant–it was a small relief to at least have something to laugh at.  At least they were noticeable in any way.

So much for that. Tocchet has negotiated a host of injuries–only Keller, OEL, and Hjalmarsson have been marked “present” for every game among the prominent players–and still a raft of youth to have the Coyotes on the brink of their first playoff berth in seven years. Sure, some of that is Darcy Kuemper’s renaissance, but the team was able to stick together through their other goalies’ struggles. Even with Stepan and Schmaltz out now, the Yotes sit one point out of the playoff picture.

The Coyotes don’t do anything particularly well, but moving toward the middle of the pack in various categories is a step up for them. Last year they were mostly getting their brains turned into mush. So it might be that Tocchet actually does know what he’s doing, or he learned. And our laughter, as always, goes away…

We still think they’ll need a real coach to take the next step. Then again, so might the Hawks.

 

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Notes: Couple injuries the Yotes are dealing with. Derek Stepan is out from four-to-six weeks, which could be a real problem, and Schmaltz is done for the season after his knee exploded…Which has vaulted Christian Dvorak up from the minors and into the #1 center role. He’s also a LOCAL GUY, so he’s going to score tonight…Alex Galchenyuk, the American with the Russian name who used to be a Canadien, was on a real heater but only has two points in his last six…Kuemper has a .925 in the calendar year of 2019 and won nine of his last 10 starts…oh Vinnie Bag O’ Donuts, how we miss you…Nick Cousins is a rapist…

Notes: After two wins in a row wouldn’t expect too many changes. Sikura had a turnover that led to a goal against in Dallas but looked more in place with 19 and 20 than Hayden did…Forsling returned with Seabrook and nothing turned into a gas leak so expect that to remain, though Koekkoek could slot in for Dahlstrom for no reason…Perlini had six shots against the Sabres but one against the Stars. Yes, Dallas is a far better defensive team but it’s that kind of inconsistency that drives his teams nuts…YARRRRR

 

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De-Fense! De-Fense!

Anything that happens with this Hawks team has to be qualified in some way. The Stars are a relatively easy to team to smother if you’re locked in. They have one line, and then one guy in Jamie Benn who’s wasting his time with Jason Dickinson and Blake Comeau. So if you can keep Seguin and Radulov from producing more than one goal, you have a good chance to look as the Hawks did tonight. They didn’t do that a couple Sundays ago, and there’s your difference. The Stars just don’t have a lot of inspiration through the lineup.

Still, that’s as good a road game as the Hawks have played in…all season? Maybe the game in Pittsburgh, which was the first week of January? Either way, it’s been an awful long time since the Hawks were able to hold a team at arm’s length for 60 minutes. And they did that tonight.

I don’t know if the Hawks can ever do it again. I don’t know that it would even benefit them, given the way they’re built sets up better for 5-4 games than 2-1. Still, if they can carry out this kind of defensive effort through the last portion of the season here, no matter where it lands them in the standings, we’ll have tangible proof that Jeremy Colliton is establishing something and just maybe there’s something to build off. But long way to go until that.

To the bluffs!

The Two Obs

-The Hawks put forth that defensive effort with Gustav Forsling in the lineup. Let’s all think about that for a second.

-I still don’t know how I feel about Patrick Kane leading the Hawks in total ice-time again. On the one hand he’s the main weapon and you might as well use it as much as you can. Still, you wonder if some of his shifts wouldn’t pack a little more punch if he was getting a few more off. It also keeps Sikura under 10 minutes, and as this season is actually about development, that seems a problem. Yes, his turnover led to Dallas’s only goal, but he looked spritely otherwise. Would like to see more of him with Toews and Saad.

-Dylan Strome with a 71% share tonight. Again, it helps when he gets to face whatever Jason Dickinson is all night, but seeing as how he’s spent most of the season getting brained possession-wise, let’s start here.

-It’s amazing how much better Corey Crawford looks when you’re only asking him to make 5-6 big saves per game instead of 96.

-If you’re allowing Chris Kunitz to get five shots off in a game, that’s probably cause for relegation.

-Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom were the only pairing that wasn’t in the black, but then they were the only ones starting a majority of time in their own zone. I still don’t know quite what to make of Murphy, who was excellent in his own zone most of the game, set up the second goal with a good defensive play, and yet you can’t keep playing on the back foot. I guess we won’t know until he has a partner who can do that more effectively than anyone here right now.

-The Hawks seemed to figure out that teams are stopping their drop pass on entries on the power play, and tonight started to fake it and then just get in the zone off the initial rush. The Stars were springing their two forwards out at Kane and DeBrincat when the Hawks first made that drop pass. Faking or ignoring it got them up against two defenders with odd-mans. They’ll have to keep doing this. They’ll get more chances than they did tonight.

Wraps up a pretty tidy effort. Let’s hope for more, prepare for not. Onwards…

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vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 28-30-9    Stars 35-27-5

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WE ARE STARDUST: Defending Big D

I used to think that the elimination of the Circus Trip and Ice Show, and not having a road trip longer than three or four games, would be a boon to the Hawks. But looking over the recent schedule, you can see why the players are not exactly pleased with how things shake out. They just came back from a West swing, one they’ll have to do again in another week or two, were home for one game before bouncing down to Texas, then back home for just one before a Canadian swing, and then back home for just two before bouncing out again. Of course, this would matter more if the games did…which they don’t.

Anyway, the schedule says the Hawks have to provide the opposition for the Stars tonight. There they’ll find a Stars team that is starting to bunker into the playoff spots. They’re four up on the Coyotes and are only three points behind the Blues for the last automatic spot in the Central. They’ve done that by winning six of their last eight, five of them in regulation, including being the only ones to remember it’s still the St. Louis Blues after all and beating them twice in that stretch. They’ve shut out the Rangers and Avalanche back-to-back at home, so this isn’t exactly the time to catch them.

It’s not like the Stars have cracked some code or radically changed how they play. They’ve just benefitted from Ben Bishop (THE BISHOP!) shooting lightning bolts out of his arse. THE BISHOP! threw a .936 at the world in February, and is at .989 in March so far, having conceded one goal in three games. The injury layoff has done him some good, obviously.

The Stars have mimicked what the Wild have done the past couple seasons. They’re not a good possession team when it comes to attempts, but as you move up the charts in terms of quality of attempts the Stars get better and better. They’re just about even in scoring-chance share, and then just a tick under 52% in high danger chance share. They’ll let you have it to the outside, but you can’t quite get to the middle on them.

The Stars have moved wunderkind Miro Heiskanen with John Klingberg and they take all the offensive responsibility while the bottom two pairings take turns manning the bunker. While they tried to use the acquisition of Mats Zuccarello to spread out some scoring, he lasted a period and a half before something went CRACK! on him. So even though Seguin and Benn are on separate lines now, they still do the heavy lifting here with assistance from Alex Radulov.

For the Hawks, the chance of a real clunker feel tangible. They weren’t very good against the Sabres but got away with it, and now you have this one game trip in a season that’s lost. You could see where weariness would combine with carelessness and against a team with it all still to play for, it’s not hard to envision where it gets ugly. Corey Crawford will do his best to keep it from doing so. Would guess the lines look pretty much the same as Thursday, which means they’ll be a mishmash because John Hayden sucks and won’t skate with Toews and Saad for more than five minutes. Maybe Sikura slots back in for Kunitz or Hayden, but…whatever.

Keep on keepin’ on…

 

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