Game #78 Preview Suite
Notes: We assume Coach Cool Youth Pastor won’t deviate from a successful lineup, although Slater Koekkoek should be deposited in the nearest wood-chipper after his tour de moron on Thursday…We’re assuming Perlini won’t be scratched after his benching, but he might be to make way for John Hayden, because that will help things…You could also scratch Seabrook, as he was just as bad as Koekkoek but we know Beto doesn’t have the stones for that. It was also a true indictment that it was Seabrook who was staring at Sorensen elbowing Crawford in the head and decided to do nothing about it. Nice work, alternate captain…
Notes: You don’t see Ilya Kovalchuk here, as he’s been a scratch of late and then insulted his coach to the press so he could get a head start on his summer vacation. Who could have seen the disaster that would become except everyone?…Dion Phaneuf has also been a recent toss-aside, because he’s sucked for a very long time and now people are just discovering that…Kopitar has two goals in March…Toffoli is shooting 6%, which is almost half his career rate…
Game #78 Preview Suite
First Screen Viewing
Coyotes vs. Avalanche – Friday, 8pm
It’s all about playoff chases now, with a week to go. And some of the teams scrapping over the same spots will run into each other, which will go a long way to deciding who gets what and who gets a handful of nothing. All eyes will turn to Denver tonight where the Avs can pretty much end the West discussion with a regulation win. Do that, and they’ll have a four-point cushion on the Desert Dogs with only four to go. So you could pretty much forget it. Arizona has to get this one in regulation, you’d have to think, to be in with a real shout. Probably the most pressure packed game of the weekend.
Second Screen Viewing
Blue Jackets vs. Predators – Saturday, 7pm
Meanwhile, at the top of the West, the Preds and Jets can’t seem to stop turning right around into a wall and end the chase for the division crown. Winnipeg found a way to blow a two-goal lead in the third to the Islanders last night, including giving up the equalizer and winner within 40 seconds of each other with less than two minutes to go. The Preds sit two points behind them, having arrested a mini two-gam losing streak by shutting out the Wild 1-0 in a game that anyone watching it would have filed to The Hague as cruel and unusual. The Jackets resuscitated their season by smashing the Canadiens last night, and sit about that same Montreal team for the last wildcard spot on a tiebreaker, and only one point behind the Canes. Again, games with both teams having something to play for are the order of the day, and this is another one.
Other Games
Friday
Blues vs. Rangers – 6pm
Predators vs. Penguins – 6pm
Devils vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Ducks vs. Flames – 8pm
Wild vs. Knights – 9pm
Saturday
Panthers vs. Bruins – 12pm
Flyers vs. Hurricanes – 12:30
Canadiens vs. Jets – 6pm
Maple Leafs vs. Senators – 6pm
Capitals vs. Lightning – 6pm
Blues vs. Devils – 6pm
Sabres vs. Islanders – 6pm
Knights vs. Sharks – 8pm
Stars vs. Canucks – 9pm
Ducks vs. Oilers – 9pm
Sunday
Rangers vs. Flyers – 11:30am
Wild vs. Coyotes – 4pm
Hurricanes vs. Penguins – 4pm
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres – 5pm
Bruins vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Flames vs. Sharks – 7pm
John mentioned it in his recap last night, and if you listened to the podcast we did a fairly long segment on how we thought Jeremy Colliton fucked up the lines over the stretch of doom that erased the Hawks playoff hopes. It’s always a little silly to just look at a segment of games, because anything can happen for a week or two. And different opponents provide different challenges. In this stretch, for instance, the Coyotes and Canucks trapped the Hawks hard, so it would be difficult for anyone to produce a large amount of shots and chances against that. Contrast that with the high-flying Sharks and the utterly confused Martin Jones, and you have a very different game. Still, in this section of the schedule the Hawks have played the Avs and Flyers as well, who are at best middling defensive teams.
So what I wanted to do was illustrate the changes in lines over the end of the last winning streak, the slog of dumbassery that was the Hawks after that, and then last night in San Jose and the effects. I have to apologize at the top, as I haven’t been able to find a way to paste the data right in here without it looking like garbage or spilling over the entire page. so it’s going to have to be a link. If anyone has a suggestion on how to better do this, feel free to email me or hit me up on Twitter and I’ll come and make the changes. One last caveat, this also includes the win in Montreal where the Hawks got the win but we’re pretty much pummeled. So this goes from Toronto to last night in San Jose:
So you’ll notice that first game in Toronto, the Hawks had two lines that produced 10 shots on goal or more at evens, one line that got over 10 scoring chances and a further two that got over six. Again, it’s the Leafs who play very fast and open and though they eventually brought the world down around the Hawks’ ears, they will give you chances. The next game in Montreal the Hawks only had one line get anywhere close, which was the top of Sikura-Toews-Saad. But still, it had over 10 scoring chances which is something of a benchmark as you’ll see.
The next game is where Beto O’Colliton got cute, and you’ll see that no line produced even five scoring chances. Again, the Canucks set out to do this and keep things tight, but to have everyone’s production cut in half from the previous is a little jarring. And that trend continues…
Against the Flyers, no line cracked 10 scoring chances or shots or anywhere close. Same story in Denver, and the Avs are not setting out to make the game this way. Only in the return at the United Center did the top line of Top Cat-Toews-Kane crack those numbers, and after that there was no line to even create three scoring chances. We have a return to the flaccid against Arizona, where the Hawks essentially did nothing. To repeat, this was Arizona’s plan and the Hawks don’t have the talent to break through, but you can see the discrepancy.
To last night, the Hawks had a return of one line managing more than 10 scoring chances, another one with almost five, and neither of them had Patrick Kane on them. Things got a little goofy with Perlini’s benching, so it might have worked out differently.
Still, I’m all for the Hawks getting 15+ chances from two lines that don’t have Kane on them, because he’s going to find a way to produce even with limited chances and energy levels.
We’ll see how the Hawks finish the season, with what lines and with what interest level from their opponents. Let’s circle back at the end. This isn’t definitive, but you can see some trend lines.
-There was another tidbit on The Athletic today by Craig Custance about the introduction of player tracking. He had a quote from Stan Bowman, which pretty much sums up the Hawks right now:
“I want to see what it is first,” said Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman. “I’m not anticipating hiring a bunch of people. I think you’ve got to figure it out. It’ll be a process of learning – ‘How is this going to help us? What am I going to do with it?’ Until it comes out, I think for me, it’s premature to be jumping in.”
Now, earlier in the piece Custance mentions that the Leafs, Rangers. Lightning, Hurricanes, and Devils have already or are in the process of hiring new staff just to deal with this. They won’t be alone.
Quite simply, if you’re taking a “wait-and-see” approach, you’re already behind. Secondly, what would be the harm, other than a few yearly salaries that probably pale in comparison to the cost of the shiny new scoreboard the Hawks are so eager to boast about, of hiring people now to be ready for this? Essentially, on one day you’ll get Bowman and the Hawks paying lip-service to them using metrics and new analytics, and then you get shit like this where they’re pretty much admitting they don’t care and never will.
Especially as this kind of thing is going to take years to amass enough data to figure out what to do with it. If you sit out a year or two, that’s probably more years you’re behind. Why wouldn’t you get started? Player tracking is already making serious inroads in the NBA and European soccer, as the article notes. It’s coming to the NHL, so why would you be so dismissive?
Don’t worry, in three years or so when this is an accepted method, Stan Bowman (who will still be in the job) will come out and say the Hawks have their own system and are on the forefront of it. It’s their way.
First Screen Viewing
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
If I said this was the Jackets’ last stand, you can picture Jarmo or Torts with a staff screaming, “You shall not pass!” At least if that helps you. The Jackets are two points behind the Habs with a game in hand, so a win tonight ties them with an extra game to go and suddenly things are looking up. Biff it at home and they’re basically done. It doesn’t get much clearer than that. Things seemed to have turned for Columbus as they’ve won their last two by a combined 9-0 scoreline. The Habs have also won four of five, and they’ll need these points as they close out with Tampa, Winnipeg, Washington, and end with Toronto. At least the last one the Leafs won’t have anything to play for. Good times await for those not involved, and utter torture for those who are.
Second Screen Viewing
Capitals vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
The revers of the game on Tuesday, which the Caps took. The Canes aren’t out of the much yet thanks to that loss, with the Blue Jackets only three points behind. The Caps are starting to open up a bit on the division, with a three-point lead on the Penguins and the wheezing Islanders. The Canes have the Penguins left on the schedule, but then the Flyers twice and the Devils along with the Leafs. So a home win tonight, where they’ve been great, and they’ll have a chance to lock down a spot, and a spot higher than the Lighting Target Practice one. And they’re capturing everyone’s hearts on the way.
Other Games
Red Wings vs. Sabres – 6pm
Panthers vs. Senators – 6:30
Islanders vs. Jets – 7pm
Stars vs. Oilers – 8pm
Kings vs. Canucks – 9pm
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 33-33-10 Sharks 43-24-9
PUCK DROP: 9:30pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
ALSO FAKING THEIR VOICE LIKE ELIZABETH HOLMES: Fear The Fin
If you were to ask both fanbases, both would tell you their team is a mess, a disaster, an embarrassment. One has lost six in a row, and one has lost four of its last five. Neither is living up to the expectations the front offices themselves set for their respective team. But really, only one of these teams is a true mess.
The Sharks are the ones who have lost six in a row. They’ve lost touch with the Flames at the top of the division, and the Bay Area faithful are already chewing their nails down to the quick over a first-round matchup with the Knights (who happened to paste the Sharks a few games ago, at least on the scoreboard but as analytics have told us that doesn’t count). Erik Karlsson won’t play until the playoffs, and it’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% then. And rushing him back is what got them in this predicament in the first place. Joe Pavelski has missed the last four games, isn’t a sure bet for tonight, and nagging injuries with 10 days to go to your best forward who happens to be 34 doesn’t set anyone’s nerves at ease.
What’s really causing the angina-kicks in San Jose is that the Sharks can’t get a damn save anywhere. Both Martin Jones and Aaron Dell have gone Little-League-Outfielder-With-The-Glove-On-His-Head in the crease, and the Sharks have the worst SV% at even-strength in the league. Which makes their 95 points and glittering metrics something of a wow, and also exemplifies how good this team really is. If they were getting league average goaltending, they’d probably be able to see where the Lightning are. Most nights, the Sharks demolish teams, and then watch Jones or Dell either make it much harder than it should be or ruin the work altogether. Even in this six-game punt, the Sharks have carried a 56+% share in every game and the same in scoring chances save one.
So yeah, the Sharks bet that Martin Jones would figure it out as the spring invaded seems a shaky one right now (and Jones has the playoff pedigree where you could see the logic). And the Sharks have more riding on these playoffs than just about anyone. Karlsson’s a free agent. Thornton’s a free agent and might retire. Pavelski is a free agent. There’s a heavy now-or-never feel to this.
As for the Hawks…who knows? The season is officially toast now. When you’re tired with the Oilers with six to go, you’re toast. Them’s the rules. So what do you watch for now? I don’t know. There’s nothing that Dylan Strome or Brendan Perlini or the like are going to do in the last six games that’s going to make you feel any differently about them come next year. You already know what the defense is. Maybe Crawford will get a day off now, or the chance to close out the season strongly.
So I guess the thing to watch is the emotional response. Do the Hawks chuck it and mail in the last six games? Do they still try and play well and be professional about it? It might give you some indication about what the players as a whole think of Coach Cool Youth Pastor. If this team isn’t going all out, then the results for these last games could be ugly/hilarious/high art. And also make for a very curious tone heading into camp next year. Once you chuck it on a coach, it’s nearly impossible to get it back. Recall that the Hawks showed some spikiness at the very end of last year for Q.
There’s no doubt the Sharks would be looking at this as their get-well night. They’ve pulverized the Hawks twice already, and they never looked like they had to get out of second gear to do so. And they probably want to get right, because their next two are Calgary and Vegas, and they at least need to throw down a marker for themselves in those. Otherwise, if they somehow puke this one tonight, they could be looking at eight or nine games biffed in a row, and that’s not how you want to enter the last week and playoffs.
I’m still high on the Sharks, but it’s more out of hope than expectation now. If Pavelski and/or Karlsson are iffy, and the goalies are the goalies, it’s quite a challenge. You would expect the antenna will be up for San Jose tonight. That’s probably very bad news for a questionably interested Hawks team.
Game #77 Preview Suite
This might be the most pivotal season in San Jose Sharks history for a few reasons. One is it might be Joe Thornton‘s last, and he will go down as the organization’s greatest player (sorry, Patrick Marleau, but you’re too weird). If they’re going to get Joe a Cup, it probably has to be now. It might also be their only season with Erik Karlsson, who has yet to re-sign and may be waiting to see how things play out for the Sharks in the playoffs, his own health, and what happens to the roster after. And another thing to add to the pile is that Joe Pavelski is going to be unrestricted, and gauging just how to handle the re-signing (or not) of their 34-year-old captain is going to be quite the ninja course for Doug Wilson.
Pavelski has a shot at setting a career-high in goals this year, which is 41 (he has 37). It’s the most he’s put up in four seasons, and that total alone might belie some fear about his age. Pavelski could certainly spend a few more years being something of a spot-up shooter and still provide 25 goals for someone.
But look a little deeper, and things get dicier. Pavelski is shooting 20.8% this season, a feat he’s highly unlikely to repeat. It’s some 60% over his career-mark. Digging further, Pavelski is averaging less shots per game at all strengths than he has since his rookie year. His 12 attempts per game at even-strength are by far the lowest of his career. On the other side of the coin, his expected individual goals per 60 (ixGF/60) is the highest it’s been since 2012. Which means he’s attempting less and getting less shots on goal, but he’s getting almost all of his attempts on prime chances or from prime areas. His team-rate marks are still positive, but are some of the lowest relative marks to the rest of the Sharks of his career.
And again, Pavelski is 34. When next season rolls around he’ll be 35. In recent history, plenty of players 35 and older have been able to put up 30 goals or more. Jarome Iginla did it twice, and that’s not a bad comparison for Pavelski. Hossa did it once. However, only one center in recent vintage did it at that age, which was Pavel Datsyuk. Pavelski has spent most recent seasons on a wing, but has played a fair share of center this year to combat Joe Thornton‘s absence and limited usage. Going forward, he’s almost assuredly a wing only.
What happens to Pavelski might hinge on what the Sharks do in the postseason. If they flame out in the first round, which is looking like a distinct possibility given theirs and Vegas’s current form, the Sharks may decide it’s time to blow it all up and let Pavelski, Thornton, and Karlsson head to the door and try again down the road with Hertl, Meier, Kane and the like. We know they haven’t been hesitant to strip a captain before. Might even worth be perusing to see if they can turn Marc-Edouard Vlasic in for a newer model, as he’s 31 and anyone in the Seabrook mold entering their 30s is going to frighten the shit out of their team.
Or the Sharks could turn it around, win a couple rounds, maybe even make it back to the Final where they can get torture-racked by Tampa. That might convince them that even without Thornton they can make another go next year, pay Karlsson and Pavelski and keep the band mostly together with a tweak here and there.
Cap space isn’t too much of a problem, as the Sharks have $25 million in space with Donskoi and Meier the only must-haves, though Meier is going to get a hell of a raise. $10M between the two of them isn’t outlandish, which means you’re basically deciding between Karlsson or Pavelski. Which isn’t much of a choice at all given position and age. That is of course unless Pavelski wants to take a team-friendly deal. Which he might.
Pavelski being captain, and with Thornton on his way meaning he’s the face of the goddamn place, probably means the Sharks can’t let him walk. Especially considering what happened with the last one in Patrick Marleau. Needless to say, the Sharks have more riding on this spring than anyone.
Game #77 Preview Suite
@ItWasThreeZero helped us out a couple weeks back with Sharks info. We’re using that again because quite simply we can’t afford the vaccinations it takes to get back where he hangs out.
Did the Sharks err by not getting a goalie at the deadline? Martin Jones‘s playoff record is stout but this regular season has been awfully bad…
There’s no question that goaltending has been the Sharks’ Achilles heel this season. Frankly it defies logic that the Sharks have the fourth-best record in the league while ranking dead last in both overall and 5v5 SV%. In fairness to Martin Jones (and Aaron Dell), the team adopted a high-risk, high-reward style of play this season that would deflate any goalie’s numbers. System changes alone don’t explain or justify both goalies sporting sub-.900 save percentages in March though. I think the hope, both organizationally and among the fanbase, is that Jones’ playoff numbers will more closely resemble his career average of .912. That’s probably why we didn’t see them make a move at the deadline despite rumors of interest in Ryan Miller. It’s easy to envision how this team, with its elite offense, possession numbers and special teams, could make a Cup run if the goaltending can be anything close to average. But it’s hard to have any confidence in Jones pulling that off at this point.
Did you like the pickups of Nyquist?
Despite having the league’s third-best offense, the Sharks don’t have a Nikita Kucherov or Johnny Gaudreau or even a Mark Scheifele or Filip Forsberg-calibre player up front. In order to have a chance at beating the teams that do have elite forward talent they need to continue to score by committee (led, of course, by huge contributions from Burns and Karlsson on the back end). The addition of Nyquist allows the Sharks to roll out a top nine that features six players on pace for 60 or more points this season plus two others scoring at a 50-point pace. Throw in double digit goal scorers Marcus Sorensen and Melker Karlsson on the fourth line and you have arguably the best forward depth in the league that the addition of Nyquist makes even deeper.
Brent Burns is on track to blow past the 76 points that got him a Norris two years ago. Should he be in contention to get another one?
To the extent that the Norris Trophy just goes to whichever defenseman puts up the most points these days, sure. If we’re talking about whether Burns has been the best overall defenseman in the NHL this year, it’s hard to make that argument. He starts over 70% of his 5v5 shifts in the offensive zone, usually against opposing second and third lines. That’s not a knock on Burns at all – the luxury of having both Karlsson and Burns on the same blueline has allowed Peter DeBoer to deploy him in the kind of specialized offensive role he’s always been best suited for and the results speak for themselves. Burns has unquestionably been a huge part of the Sharks’ success this season but he hasn’t quite had the same all-around impact as defensemen like Mark Giordano or Morgan Rielly who aren’t far behind Burns in terms of production either.
It looks like the Sharks path is going to have to go through Vegas and Calgary to even get to Winnipeg or Nashville. Is that just too daunting for a pretty old team?
It’s a brutal road and underscores the importance of winning the Pacific Division to avoid that 2 vs. 3 matchup, a feat that may be out of the Sharks’ grasp at this point depending on the health of Erik Karlsson. This is, at least on paper, the best roster in franchise history though. And while the Sharks’ average age might be a little high, key players like Karlsson, Hertl, Kane, Couture and Meier are at least theoretically still in their respective primes and it’s not like age has slowed Burns or Pavelski down significantly either. They should be good enough to beat Vegas and Calgary if they can get anything resembling average goaltending. If last year’s Capitals can win the Cup after running the gauntlet of Columbus, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay there’s no reason this Sharks roster can’t pull off a similar achievement.
Game #77 Preview Suite
Look at this guy.
Doug Wilson is 61-years-old. Do you know anyone who looks like that at 61? No, you do not. Will you look like that at 61? No, you will not. In fact, you probably don’t look like that now. We sure don’t. And yet Doug Wilson doesn’t age. He’s a former hockey player for fuck’s sake. One who didn’t even wear a helmet! You see most of the guys from the 80s? They all look like they tried to eat a moving Harley-Davidson. You can actually watch Jeremy Roenick’s face swell on NBCSN, and he came into the league after Wilson.
It must be a Silicon Valley thing. All that blood Theranos collected to fuck over rich people everywhere? Wilson stole it and drank it all. That can be the only explanation. It’s bad enough you have to sacrifice two children to pay a year’s rent anywhere within 100 miles of San Francisco, but now you’ve got Wilson around collecting your blood. Maybe that’s why Joe Thornton grows that beard, to hide the fang-wounds.
The job is supposed to be aging, too. Stan Bowman doesn’t look like his heart has actually beat since 2013. Every feature of Joe Sakic’s face is slowly moving away from each other out of fear of making a loud noise and scaring one of the others. Here’s one for you: Doug Wilson is two years younger than Brian Burke. And Brian Burke looks like a production of “The Hunchback Of Notre Dame” performed by actual cirrhosis. Have you ever seen a picture of Doug Armstrong? Have you ever seen an angry bowling ball after a few hours in a furnace? There you go.
No wonder he wasn’t won a Cup. How much can one person have? He is undead, we’re telling you.
Game #77 Preview Suite
