Hockey

Game #6 – Capitals vs. Hawks Preview: Spike To Streak

By Sam Fels 1302 0

vs.

RECORDS: Capitals 5-2-2  Hawks 2-2-1

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago/NHLN Outside the 606

WHAT A BUNCH OF CLOWNS: Japers Rink

The Hawks come in to their first game of the year on a positive base, though perhaps a touch lucky to have their second win of two. So the Hawks have a chance for their first “winning streak” of the season. The challenge is that to get to there, they’ll have to go through one of the hotter teams in the league.

The Washington Capitals come in with the second-highest point-total in the East, tied with the Penguins atop the Metro which has been their apartment for the past few seasons. Their two regulation losses have come against the Predators and Avalanche, who have been a problem for America so far on the nascent season. And they’re doing it a little differently so far than they have.

In the past, at least the last couple seasons, the Caps were not a great team when measured metrically. But they’re finishing talent would always outshoot what the chances and attempts said they should have, because when you have Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, TJ Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and some nifty bottom-sixers that’s a thing you can do. They didn’t give up too much while not being exactly defensively iron curtain, but just enough to let their array of snipers to outdo whatever they did surrender.

This year, they’re controlling play much more so far, ranking fourth in team Corsi-percentage and expected goal-percentage. Which has left them sixth in goal for, because again, they have finishers everywhere. But Barry Trotz’s ways haven’t completely disappeared, as the Caps remain one of the better defensive teams around in terms of attempts and chances against. It’s been a promising start for a team that becomes an afterthought simply because they’ve been around so long you get a little sick of them or take them as a given so consistently they just fade into the background. But it’s been a decade now where anyone trying to get out of the Metro or NASCAR Division before that had to go through DC. Still looks that way now.

The concern for the Caps so far is that Braden Holtby has been awful, and once again the Capitals are thinking about turning their eyes to a younger model. Where it was once Phillip Grubauer, it’s now Ilya Samsonov. He’s been very good in his first month in the NHL, and with Holtby a free agent after this season, you can bet there are more than a few hopes in the Caps front office that Samsonov proves he can be a cheaper, younger starter going forward. Of course, we won’t know that until April, where Grubauer faltered for the Caps a couple years ago and kept Holtby around.

The big story tonight for the Hawks is whether or not Kirby Dach is going to make his debut. It would seem silly to call him up and then just have him sit in the pressbox, but we’ve seen that before. Dach was skating as a top line winger with Jonathan Toews yesterday, as a totally charming, bright, and handsome (and available!) writer suggested just a couple days ago. Given the success David Kampf has had between Brandon Saad and Dominik Kubalik, and that Dylan Strome belongs far less on a wing, it seems the best answer. It would be the softest landing as well, and Toews and DeBrincat could use a little more dash than Drake Caggiula can provide. Then again, Caligula is the only puck winner there, and Toews might not be able to that any more. Could we see Dach with Caggiula and Toews with Top Cat sliding down to the second line with Kane and Strome? Even talking about it is kind of exciting. It could be new toy night, and what we really want is Dach just to flash what he can be this season. It won’t all be pretty, but let’s see if there’s a diamond here.

As for the rest, Corey Crawford will take the net as he and Lehner are going to split the starts over this busy stretch you’d have to think, at least until one gets hot or one turns into stone. It’s how they drew it up.

The Hawks were scorched at least in the first period by the Jackets, who are a team that’s consistently been able to use their speed against the Hawks’ lack of it. The Caps certainly can play in the straight lines through the neutral zone that the Hawks can’t handle when their defense gets squared up. Kampf can take the Backstrom assignment, but the thing with the Caps is they still feature Kuznetsov behind that. If we’re going to get excited about what the Hawks can do this season, they have to prove not only that they can survive against teams that can do that thanks to goaltending, but can actively handle it and give as good as they get. It’s been a while since that happened. Tonight’s another test.

Hockey

Game #4 – Oilers 1, Hawks 3 – It’s Not Enough to Feel It, It Needs to Overwhelm You

By Rose Rankin 1872 0

It finally happened, folks! The Hawks played a solid game nearly the full 60 minutes, they had even-strength goals, Corey Crawford was back to his old self. And all is right with the world (well, not really, but for like this very minute it kinda is).

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

–The big news (aside from the win, obviously) is that the Hawks didn’t get domed in the second period. And not only did they avoid playing like shit, they were actually dominant in that period. They outshot the Oilers 17-6, led 32-8 in attempts, had a 75 CF% at evens, and of course got the only goal of the period thanks to a quick shot from Kane off a faceoff win by Dylan Strome. And it was an even strength goal—who knew they could still do that? Beyond the numbers, they passed the eye test too. Brandon Saad had two excellent chances in the period, both off lovely feeds from Dominik Kubalik just above the circles. Darnell Nurse made a great play on the first one to break up Saad’s momentum and the second one he hit the post, but despite the lack of finish they were exactly the plays and chances we want to see. And Connor Murphy made the same feed to Caggiula in the second so if any of these guys could learn to finish, we may have that air raid offense we keep talking about.

–There was, however, an element of luck to all this. Yes, the Oilers did not play all that well tonight but Connor McDavid‘s speed is still other-worldly even on an off night, and he nearly tied it after calmly stealing the puck from Ryan Carpenter (who otherwise wasn’t bad) and driving right to the net. He lost control a bit and the contact with Crawford negated the goal, but if he had stopped about six inches sooner the second would have ended tied.

–And that exemplified how even in this dominant period, it felt like the Hawks’ lead was tenuous—that they were one bad break away from losing their grip on things. The Oilers seemed confused as to why things weren’t going their way, why all the bad bounces and classic Crawford saves were thwarting them, and it wasn’t until the second goal in the third that it began to feel like the Hawks were in control.

–Alexander Nylander got that go-ahead goal—did you think you were gonna hear that? We like to give Nylander a lot of shit around here, but it actually was a nice takeaway from McDavid of all people (again, he had an off night). It was a badly needed insurance goal. So they’re going to still try and make Fetch happen, get ready. I’m of the opinion that one good play does not a useful player make, but the Hawks NEED this trade to work so despite being marooned on the fourth line, he’ll worm his way into the lineup again and they’ll keep Fetch around for a little while.

–Crawford was fucking great. He had a .964 SV% and made the point-blank saves we know and love him for. He absolutely deserved to be the first star of the game, and everyone who was freaking out that he’s lost his touch should sit down.

–Speaking of things working, can we keep Kubalik-Kampf-Saad together? They had a 79 CF% on the night, and to put it another way, they were largely responsible for keeping McDavid-Draisaitl-Kassian to a 41 CF%. It’s telling in and of itself that Beto O’Colliton put 8-64-20 out against one of the best lines in the entire NHL and not the ostensible top line. And it made sense, seeing as McDavid’s line had some of their most productive shifts against Strome’s line in the third. Like everyone else, I’m confused if Toews is hurt or if he’s just in a slump or if it’s a sign of a course correction after his renaissance last year. It’s probably too soon to tell, but signs aren’t good thus far.

–The penalty kill was marginally better. There was a shot off the post in the first, so again, a bit of luck, and obviously the Oilers converted late in the third which really created some unnecessary drama. But, even aside from those issues it was still better, going 2-for-3. The power play…meh, I guess it was slightly better at times but that’s not saying much. They avoided the frustrating stand-around-and-wait-for-Kane bullshit, but they got held to the outside, which they still struggled to do on their own penalty kill. So special teams are a work in progress, is what I’m trying to say.

–Brandon Saad worked so damn hard to get a goal and even that empty netter was like there was a force field on the goal line but he PERSEVERED people. Four shots, one goal, 72 CF%…he had himself a night.

Obviously we hope this is the start of the Hawks turning things around—getting some reliability with the lines, less awful special teams, people shutting the hell up about Crawford. But it remains to be seen, for now, onward and upward…

Line of the Night: “They’re sellouts but there are still tickets available.” —Foley doing the mandated wheel pose about the sellout streak and GREAT SEATS STILL AVAILABLE at the same time

Beer de jour: Lagunitas Daytime (yes, it’s nighttime, I know, leave me alone)

Hockey

Waiting On Dach, Homestand Charge, And Whatever Else I Can Think Of

By Sam Fels 1640 0

It’s been one of the stranger starts to the season, in its lack of action. The Hawks have played one game, while some teams have played four, and we’re just sitting around basically still waiting for the season to get started. We can’t draw any conclusions after one game (we’re not Toronto), so we don’t know anything more or less than we did before. So we’ll try and clear whatever’s going on, which is a whole lot of not much.

-Perhaps the biggest story to watch over this homestand is when Kirby Dach will get into the lineup, and how he will do when he gets there. Given that the nine-game “trial” only covers the games he dresses for, this could go on all month. Which probably wouldn’t make Saskatoon all that happy, but no one has ever given a fuck what Saskatoon thinks and no one ever will. The Hawks are being awfully cautious, though at this point it doesn’t seem to have that much to do with his injured brain.

It’s looking like the Hawks won’t dress him for the home opener, given that he’ll only have a handful of “real” practices under his belt. We all wish to have seen him in preseason, but in preseason he would have been beating up on AHL-level talent for the most part and we’re already pretty sure he can do that.

The other part, as it always is with the Hawks, is the worry about his defensive game. It feels like a lot of the time the Hawks always see what a player can’t be instead of what he can, and the one time they saw what a player could be they ended up with Alex DeBrincat never having to step foot back in junior or in the minors at all. They certainly see what a player could be when they trade for him, i.e. Strome and Nylander (jury’s out there) or Koekkoek (jury’s definitely in there) and we could go on. But when it’s from their own system, they’re awfully harsh.

To me, we already know this team is going to blow defensively. There’s like, no hope that they’ll ever be good. So really, they need to try and outscore all of their problems. Installing Dach right between Saad and Kubalik would help you achieve that. Or the truly ballsy move, which would never ever happen, is to put Toews there to give you a hybrid checking/scoring line and let Dach play with Kane and Mystery Doofus on the left wing and let them only play offense. Teams would be tempted to play their top lines against that one, and probably do very well doing so, but would also run the risk of a Saad-Toews-Kubalik unit running roughshod over their second and third lines. But this will only happen in my mind.

The thing is, Dach is not going to learn that much about defense playing against children he’s putting up 120 points against. We pretty much know he’s physically dominant in that league. It is possible to drip-feed him responsibility at the top level, with some rough nights assuredly in there. With DeBrincat’s extension, we know the Hawks are merely focused on the next three to four years before a hard reset for just about everything. There actually isn’t that much time to waste.

-It’s a little silly to say in October, and things can change down the line, but the Hawks kind of do need to crush this season opening homestand. For one, the only world-beater on the docket is the Knights, who have spent three games looking like the West’s best, which makes me feel made of vomit. There’s also the little nugget that the Hawks have never beaten them. There’s a couple actually bad teams on here, a couple middling (though the Hawks just got their ass kicked by one of them). And whatever the Jets are right now, which is probably all of these things in one. Except without a defense.

But more importantly, if the Hawks don’t gain some kind of energy from even a 4-3 or hopefully 5-2 or better, you’d have to think there would be even more questions about the stewardship of this team or what it’s meant to do. You can’t really ask for more at the start of a season than seven straight home games. Everything the “Magic Training Camp” was supposed to do can be most easily instilled with this many home games. Everything you want to do, you’re supposed to be able to do at home. Especially when the opposition isn’t all that daunting for the most part.

If the Hawks still look disjointed and ill-equipped, there won’t be the excuses of “having to change systems on the fly” like there was last year. Or getting used to a new voice. Or figuring out what team they have. They’re supposed to know, and these seven games should show one way or the other.

The schedule, if you can judge it only a week in on who you think is good and isn’t, doesn’t really get daunting until the end of November. But we’ve seen what happens when this team has to chase later in the year. Here’s a chance to start to carve out a trench.

-Anyone else think it’s weird that training camp started with worries over Calvin de Haan’s shoulder and now it’s his groin that’s keeping him questionable?

-One thing we haven’t discussed a lot, and probably should have, is how Jeremy Colliton will handle a goalie controversy. We can expect Lehner and Crawford to split starts just about to begin. But what if on these seven games Lehner severely outplays Crow? If it’s the other way, that’s easy. Crow is the pedigreed veteran everyone loves. But if Lehner starts to earn the lion’s share of time, is this something a young coach in his first full season is ready to handle? Can he actually sit a vet with far more accomplishments than he has? And if he does, why does it have to stop there?

At least it’s interesting.

Hockey

Game #1 – Hawks vs. Flyers Preview: It’s Time To Play The Music

By Sam Fels 1474 0

vs.

PUCK DROP: 1pm

TV: NBCSN in the 606, NHLN outside

WOOTER ICE: Broad St. Hockey

What seemed like a three-year offseason finally comes to an end this afternoon, or at least it sort of feels like it does. This still has an extended preseason feel to it, even though the points will be real. The Hawks don’t play for another week after this, giving it sort of an odd oasis-in-the-desert-of-West-Texas feel. Still, these points might matter come April, so you might as well get them.

We’ll start with the reason we’re here, and that’s the Hawks. The opener feels like new toy day in a way, though the Hawks will have to wait to unveil a couple. Calvin de Haan won’t make the bell, which allows Dennis Gilbert and Slater Koekkoek to be your third pairing and for you to wonder if maybe there isn’t a better way to spend your lunch break. Robin Lehner will cede the first net of the season to Corey Crawford, as he should.

So whatever’s “new” about the Hawks today is what you were kind of worried about before. Olli Maatta will debut next to Brent Seabrook, because of those preseason performances that apparently only the coaches could see. Alex Nylander will get to run with Daydream Nation, as the Hawks make every effort to prove he does in fact give a shit, or slightly more of a shit to actually get inside the circles. No one was actually “worried” about Zack Smith or Ryan Carpenter, because we know what they’re here for. So yeah…ok, maybe it doesn’t have the juice of a real “New Toy Day.”

As far as weird openers in a foreign country that don’t really feel like openers, there are harder landings than the Flyers. Except they do come with a fair amount of speed up front, which is something that will give the Hawks problems all season. And if you’re wondering, “Doesn’t every team have a fair amount of speed up front?” Well, now you see the problem.

The Flyers are in a strange place, where it feels like they’re rebuilding but most of their players have been around a while now, whatever their age. And to help take it a step forward, they have three failed coaches behind the bench. Alain Vigneault seems to get a bounce in his first year or two, but eventually drives everyone nuts and by the time he’s fired it’s usually just about the time his players are constructing a flammable effigy of him or two in the dressing room. He’s also an odd choice for such a young team. Beyond that, what Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo have to offer other than grunts and suggesting “MOAR HITZ,” I can’t tell you.

Still, the Flyers should boast a decent enough top-six, with Giroux and Travis Konecny flanking Sean Couturier up top, and new signing (and way overpaid) Kevin Hayes between Jakub Voracek and either James van Riemsdyk or Oskar Lindblom. It’s not the best top six, but it’s hardly the worst, even if Giroux is something of just a spot-up shooter right now. Joel Farabee turned some heads in camp at 19, and will start in the bottom six today, with the hopes of sticking around longer term.

The real hope for the Flyers is on the back end and especially in the crease, where Carter Hart is hopefully going to end the decades-long reign of all the goblins and evil spirits that have inhabited the Flyers crease. Hart was the only one of eight (!) goalies last year to look good, has been billed as the answer since arriving in the organization, and looks the part. The Flyers can only hope that he is finally the one strong enough to overcome the curse of anyone in orange pads.

The Flyers have promise on the blue line, though Ivan Provorov will have to overcome something of a plateaued year last year. Robert Hagg, Travis Sanheim, and Samuel Morin are all young, which is why Justin Braun and Matt Niskanen were brought in to be steadying hands (Niskanen was also brought in to make sure Radko Gudas didn’t turn them all into felons). Shayne Gostisbehere needs to prove he wasn’t just a one- or two-year power play phenomenon, because the Flyers have more than enough talent there to shuffle him along to save money.

Whatever it’s going to be, it starts now. The Flyers don’t have near the speed to destroy the Hawks defense, but they have enough that we can see what the plan actually is here. If they get snowed under by this, especially without de Haan or Connor Murphy in the lineup, we know how big the problems just might be. And whether or not Crow can keep Atlas-ing this team so that it’s scoring can make up the difference.

And…here…we….go.

Hockey

Wheel It Out Here, Carnac

By Sam Fels 1793 0

We used to do this every year, so we’ll get back to it. Your FFUD Hawks staff predicts what will happen in the upcoming season. 

Big One First – Predicted Points and standings for the Hawks

McClure: 92 Points, 2nd wild card in the west

Pullega: 88 points, 9th in Conference (just outside wild card)

Hess: 86 points, 9th or 10th in West

Rankin: 88 pts, 9th in conference

Feather: 102 points – 3rd in the Central

Fels: 88 points, 10th in West

How many games will each goalie play and how good will they be?

McClure: Crawford 46, .916   Lehner 35, 910

Pullega: Crow: 34. He’ll play very well (.920) but he’ll get hurt again. Robin: 44. He’ll play fine (.910) and probably get four years. Delia: Four because both bird boys will be hurt at the same time at some point. He’ll be meh (.900).

Hess:Crow: 20, will be good but not great (.912), and deal with minor injuries early. He gets traded at the deadline, sadly

Robin: 45. He’ll be slightly better than Crow (.918) and get’s extended
Delia plays 17 while Crow’s hurt  and then backs up after Crow is traded. Plays well enough (.906) for Hawks to keep him as the backup moving forward
Rankin: Crawford: 35, will be good but not great and will struggle with brown brain at one point

Lehner: 40, will be good but terrifying at times, .912
Delia: 7, backs up Lehner when Crow is out, mediocre
Feather: 47 and 35 but don’t make me say which will have more. I’m having nostalgic feelings to 2008-09 when Huet and Khabibulin were going every other start.
Fels: Crow 43 (.918), Lehner 30 (.910), Delia 9 (.908)
Will the power play be over 20% for the year?
McClure: Just under at 19.6%
Pullega: No. 17% tops. Gus is going to bask in his own farts from last year and crater any trade value he had.
Hess: I’m calling this a push, they’ll finish +/- 1% of 20%
Rankin: Just barely, 20.5
Feather: Yes (Hawk voice) Let’s say 23%
Fels: Nope, 18%
How many games will Boqvist play?
McClure: 26
Pullega: 9
Hess: 30
Rankin: 15ish
Feather: 33 – I’m foreseeing a late to mid-season call up when the Hawks can’t pretend he’s not their 1st or 2nd best defensemen anymore.
Fels: 37. Called up somewhere among the holidays when the Hawks realize they have no choice, but there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Dach play?
McClure: 7
Pullega: 9
Hess: 9
Rankin: 9
Feather: in the NHL- Head too dingy
Fels: 70 – he sticks but has injury issues at times and there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Versteeg play?
McClure: 15
Pullega: 15, 14 of them will matter
Hess: too many
Rankin: 12, and it will be ridiculous
Feather: Too many and not far enough away
Fels: I refuse to answer this and it’s my damn question
 
Strome’s point-total:
McClure: 69 (nice)
Pullega: 60
Hess: 27 goals, 81 points. Let’s fuckin go
Rankin: 60, solid but not astronomical
Feather: 23 goals and 56 assists
Fels: 21 goals, 55 points
 
Toews’s goal and point-total:
McClure: 31-40-71
Pullega: 28-47-75
Hess: 29 goals, 79 points
Rose: 30 and 75
Feather: 38 goals and 80 points
Fels: 30 goals, 62 points
 
Biggest surprise:
McClure: Calvin de Haan will actually prove to be a metrically solid defenseman
Pullega: Kubalik. 40 points, 25 goals (5 PP)
Hess: The Hawks trade Brandon Saad to Edmonton at the trade deadline
Rankin: Andrew Shaw is useless in the top 6 and takes absurd numbers of penalties. This will not come as a surprise to me but to his many fans, it will.
Feather: Alex Nylander – because reasons, buddy.
Fels: That Dach sticks as Hawks realize they only have about three seasons to work with.
 
Biggest disappointment:
McClure: Robin Lehner will not seize the position from Crawford, leaving the Hawks with two huge question marks in net at the end of the season
Pullega: I’d say Nylander, but that would imply expectations. Let’s go with Gus. 35 points.
Hess: That Pullega called Tampa “Ning.” Also that the Hawks have a lot of high scoring forwards and solid goaltending but still miss the playoffs because of the blue line being so bad
Rankin: Colliton’s adherence to a hybrid man-to-man system that doesn’t work with this lineup.
Feather: There are no disappointments in a 102 point campaign – only slight annoyances. I’ll go with Brent Seabrook and somehow still strong-arming his way on this roster when he may not be the 8th best d-men in the organ-I-zation.
Fels: Hawks trade Connor Murphy because everyone else is unwanted by every other team.
 
Western Champ:
McClure: Colorado
Pullega: Sharks
Hess: Colorado
Rankin: Colorado
Feather: HAWKS, my FRENT
Fels: San Jose (except I really think it’s going to be the team down I-55 but I can’t say it)
 
Eastern Champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Ning
Hess: Toronna
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
 
Cup champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Tampa
Hess: Toronto
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19-’20 Player Previews – Corey Crawford

By Adam Hess 1953 0

One year after the Hawks spent an entire summer backhandely blaming him for them missing the playoffs in the 2017-18 season, Corey Crawford enters 2019 in something of a goalie competition for the long term. With new signee Robin Lehner coming off a career year an potentially primed to take this job out from under him, and his contract expiring after this year and no extension in place yet (which we will get to), Crawford might have some proving to do this year. Let’s dig in.

2018-19 Stats

39 GP – 14 W, 18 L, 5 OTL

.908 SV%, 2.93 GAA

.916 SV% – .920 PP SV% – .853 PK SV%

A Brief History: The Hawks placed a lot of hope in Corey Crawford A) not having jelly for a brain after his concussion-riddled 2017-18 season and B) not playing badly after a concussion-riddled season at 33. He started the year pretty well and actually made it up to halfway through December before he got bumrushed in the crease and had his head smash into the goalpost, giving him his second bad concussion in as many seasons and only raising further concerns about potential jelly brain. He missed two and half months after that before returning at the end of February.

Crawford played pretty fine for most of the season, but ended the year with his worst save percentage since 2011-12 and the worst GAA of his career. Which, really, that just says a lot about how fucking good has been throughout his career, but his overall numbers indicated more of a high-caliber backup goalie rather than the goaltender you want behind a Cup contender. Not that the Hawks are any sort of Cup contender, but you know they want to at least think they are.

It Was The Best of Times: Is it too cliche to say that the best case scenario for Crawford is just to make it through 2019-20 without suffering another brain issue? I feel like I’ve been something of a broken record saying this for a year and a half now, but at a certain point there needs to be more consideration for Corey Crawford’s long term health and not what his value is to a hockey team. This isn’t fucking football where players are essentially willingly mortgaging their long term brain health in the pursuit of sports glory. Sure hockey is physical, and as a goalie you do place yourself at a greater risk of head injury, but this guy’s ability to live a long and happy life should be paramount, at least to himself.

Soapbox aside, given the amount and severity of his head injuries recently, I have to admit I am not expecting a huge amount from Crawford this year. I don’t think that in his age-35 season after having missed more than 90 total games in the past two years (via both sitting out and injury), it is reasonable to think he will ever be a .920 guy again. But with the Hawks seemingly set to run the 1A/1B system with Crawford and Robin Lehner, I think if he can be just a little better than he was last year, maybe post a .910-.915 overall SV% while staying healthy, that will be an excellent year for Crawford and might even let the Hawks sneak in the playoffs.

It Was The BLURST of Times: The worst case scenario for Crawford is that he continues down the unfortunate side of being an over-30 NHL player with a tough recent rash (skypoint Marian Hossa) of injuries and misses a big chunk of the season to more ailments. I obviously pray that wouldn’t be another head injury, but being 35 in sports opens the possibility for more physical ailments as well. What would compound this as worse for Crawford (though maybe not for the Hawks) would be if Robin Lehner proves that his 2018-19 campaign was not a fluke and really grabs the Hawks’ crease by the balls, while Collin Delia proves to be a more than adequate backup with an extremely affordable contract, and the Hawks decide they’d rather move on to younger and less broken players. It would be understandable, but still difficult to process.

I truly pray this worst case scenario does not play out because it would result in Crawford getting the big time Jay Cutler teatment here in Chicago – despite being among the best at his position that the city has even seen, he will never have been appreciated as much as he should have been. But like, way better than Cutler ever was, and yet somehow appreciated even less. He was a top-5 goalie in the NHL for years and got none of the recognition either here or nationally, and the organization seems to have more disdain for him than he does for remaining sober at concerts. And the fans never got over the GLOVE SIDE bullshit that became a fucking stupid narrative in 2013 despite him really being their best player in those playoffs. And while Scott Darling did need to save them slightly in 2015, Crawford was dominant after getting the crease back and probably deserved that Conn Smythe as well.

Prediction: Crawford remains mostly healthy and plays at a similar level to last year, finishing with a .907 SV%. Overall he gets outshined by Robin Lehner, and the two combine for a .910 that keeps the Hawks competitive and they slip into the playoffs, where Lehner is the starter and Crawford only gets in if Lehner struggles. The Hawks re-sign Lehner to a longer-term deal and make it clear to Crawford that his roll going forward is as a year-to-year backup, because if we’ve learned anything throughout Stan Bowman’s tenure as GM it’s that he takes care of extensions for guys he thinks will be part of the future early, regardless of the risk (lookin at you, Nacho) and given that Crow hasn’t had that happen yet, the writing is already on the wall.

Stats from NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.com

Previous Player Previews

Robin Lehner

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Robin Lehner

By John Pullega 2109 0

The one wrinkle that Stan Bowman missed while ironing his brain this summer was signing Robin Lehner. With Corey Crawford in a perpetual state of ouch and a blue line more horrendously conceived than Waldo’s Dad’s wall, finding a Robin for the Batman Bowman thinks this backend is was quite the steal, if not a bit on the nose.

2018–19 Stats

46 GP – 25 W, 13 L, 5 OTL

.930 SV%, 2.13 GAA

.934 EV%, 1.000 PP%, .888 SH%

28.7 Shots Against/Game

A Brief History: Lehner had a career year last year. He won the Jennings after Barry No-Neck reinstituted his “hockey should feel like a botched vasectomy” defense on the Isle/Brooklyn. He won the Masterson for performing well after confronting and addressing the hell of bipolar disorder. And he was second runner-up for the Vezina. For all the pants shitting Bowman did in the off-season, he managed to fling at least one diaper onto Lou Lamoriello’s cue-ball dome by signing Lehner to a one-year, $5 million deal.

Lehner consistently ranked in the top five among goalies in ALL situations last year.

  • Second overall with a .930 SV% (behind only THE BISHOP!)
  • Third overall with a 2.13 GAA
  • Third overall with a .854 HDSV% (high-danger save percentage)

Lehner also only gave up 93 goals on the year against an expected 109 (ALL situations), which simply means he played better than expected.

You may remember that the Blackhawks were the absolute worst team in HDCF% and a bottom-10 team in HDGF% last year, which is just a fancy way to say that their high-danger defense was a plastic bag of sun-drenched mayonnaise. So, that HDSV% should pop out as promising.

Lehner was pretty good on the PK last year, too, with a .888 SV%. For a team that portends to piss itself on the PK again this year, you’ll take any improvement you can get there.

It Was the Best of Times: If Lehner plays at just his career average rate, then the Hawks have a pretty comparable albeit lesser replacement for Corey Crawford.

Career

Games

SV%

SH SV%

5v5 HDCF%

5v5 HDGF%

5v5 HDSV%

Crawford

448

.918

.869

.501*

.529*

.852*

Lehner

265

.918

.892

.498

.479

.825

Postseason not included

* = 2007–19, NaturalStatTrick.com

And over the last four years, Lehner’s been the better of the two on the PK, though inferior in terms of HDSV%.

2015–19

Games

SV%

SH SV%

5v5 HDCF%

5v5 HDGF%

5v5 HDSV%

Crawford

180

.919

.875

.475

.520

.864

Lehner

179

.919

.891

.502

.477

.815

Postseason not included

This will be Lehner’s first real year since 2013–14 behind a team whose offense isn’t reliant on gas station enhancement pills for even a spurt. (Did you know Ottawa had a top-10 offense in terms of goals scored that year? I sure forgot.) Even with all the woe we throw at this team, the offense has been in the top-10 in terms of goals scored four of the last five years.

So, best case, Lehner performs at a career level or better, which improves the PK despite the fact that it’s somehow going to be slower than it was last year. With the Hawks scoring at a top-10 rate, Lehner can hide some of the trouble he’s had in allowing high-danger goals as the Hawks simply go with an air raid strategy all year. Lehner takes a 60/40 split of starts and the Hawks eke out a playoff spot on the backs of their offense and 1A/1B goalie tandem.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Robin Lehner played for one of the best defensive teams last year. You saw the numbers he put up behind that. The year before, he played for one of the worst defensive teams in Buffalo. His results weren’t pretty, as he threw a .908 SV% and 3.01 GAA. His HDSV% was an abysmal .796. The latter is closer to the kind of defense that Lehner can expect coming to Chicago.

Worst case, aside from an injury, is that Lehner can’t make up for how bad the Hawks blue line is. His HDSV% plummets behind a blue line that, again, managed to somehow get slower than it was last year. He drowns even splitting time with Crawford, and when Crow inevitably gets hurt, Lehner turns into the pumpkin we called Cam Ward last year. The Hawks don’t make the playoffs, don’t get a lucky bounce in the lottery, and no one learns anything.

Prediction: Lehner will end up as the 1A goalie as Crow’s tenure as the Hawks’s resident Rodney Dangerfield winds down. He won’t wow like he did last year, but we’ll get a serviceable, slightly-below-career-average line from Lehner. Let’s say, .908 SV%, .880 SH%. But the Hawks blue line and Lehner’s career HDSV% will pair as well as puke on a pile of shit, and none of the problems the Hawks had last year will really be solved.

Here come the Hawks?

Stats from hockey-reference.com and NaturalStatTrick.com

 

Hockey

And in Another More Accurate Way, Barney is the Winner

By Rose Rankin 2055 0

Looking at the Hawks’ offseason moves thus far, which have ranged from the curious to the mildly dissatisfying to the outright stupid, the signing of Robin Lehner is probably the least offensive or, put another way, has the best chance of not blowing up in their face. To review, Lehner was third in Vezina voting last year, with a .930 SV% and 2.13 GAA, although he basically split starts with Thomas Greiss.

Now, before I go any further, let me just say that Lehner’s political stance sucks, and I highly doubt any of our readers would be surprised to hear me say that. But, I can’t change what he thinks, I assume there are many other players whose political opinions would also disgust me, and this is just a fact to be filed away in the “shitty things I can’t do anything about” category.

Setting all that aside, the question then becomes what does this goaltending situation actually look like next season? As I just mentioned, Lehner had a great year splitting starts, and the Islanders just seemingly fucked up by getting bored or distracted, and Lamoriello went all “is a moron” in the GM category as is his way, and Lehner pretty much fell into Stan Bowman’s lap and was willing to take a one-year deal. He’s still a bit of an unknown quantity because his Vezina- quality year could have been a fluke, or he could be hitting the best years of his career and last season was just a harbinger of what’s to come. He had some success in Buffalo with a .920 SV% in 59 games, before hitting a rough patch and then heading to the Islanders, and his career could flourish now that he’s overcome some serious shit. It could really go either way.

And as we know, Corey Crawford’s immediate future is just as uncertain. He’s worked hard to come back from the concussions, and we seen flashes of brilliance mixed with some, well, less-than-brilliant stretches. He picked things up in mid-March after coming back from concussion #857 and put up a very respectable .916 SV% through March (starting at 3/9, full disclosure), which was crucial to the farcical playoff run they pretended to make right at the end. And still, the injury history is there and we all know it. So essentially there are a lot of questions surrounding the goaltending situation and there are a few ways this could play out. So let’s explore, shall we?

Crawford is good, Lehner is bad

If this is how it pans out, then the signing will look like a relatively low-risk gamble that just didn’t work out in the Hawks’ favor. If Crawford is at his historical average around .915, and the PK gets less wretched because de Haan, Maata, and/or Carpenter somehow make a difference, then Lehner could be relegated to a true backup role, and he could choose to try his fortunes elsewhere at the end of the season, with 5 mildo out the door but no lasting harm done. Or, he could even be moved mid-season if Delia or Lankinen are making noise in the AHL and some desperate team is willing to take a chance. And this is a real possibility—the Islanders gave up 30.9 shots, putting them solidly in the middle of the league, whereas the Hawks were dismal second-worst, giving up 34.8. It’s entirely possible Lehner can’t withstand the shit defense that, as we’ve covered, hasn’t really gotten much better from last year.

Should Crawford be holding his own and Lehner struggling, the Hawks will still find themselves in a pickle when Crawford’s contract is up at the end of the season because no matter what he’ll be past his prime, even if this season is a renaissance or bounce-back or any other tired trope you want to use. They’ll have to come to a decision—the Hawks and Crawford—about whether re-signing him for a year or two is worth it, would they really expect him to be the starter, would he rather move on somewhere, what type of payday could really be in the offering (probably not a big one), etc., etc. Lehner not being a reliable alternative answers none of these questions, but if he can’t repeat last season’s performance, then signing him was a relative shrug and “meh we tried” for the organization.

Lehner is good, Crawford is bad

This would be a tough spot but would show that this dumb luck signing was the right thing to do. Let’s say Crawford has a slow start, i.e., barely cracking a .900 SV% by the time Thanksgiving rolls around. Even if it’s not totally his fault and he’s facing between 35-45 shots a night, we still need lights-out goaltending because the defense is still slow and bad. If Crow can’t manage a .910 continuously, and if the PK remains dead-ass last in the league, that’s a serious problem.

And, let’s say Lehner is throwing out a .925 in the handful of starts he gets in October through early November. The Hawks would have to seriously consider making Lehner the No. 1 but could you imagine Crawford as the backup? The organ-I-zation has disrespected him enough times that I wouldn’t rule it out, but it would be both weird and sad. It would also be interesting to see if Coach Cool Youth Pastor actually did it, but he doesn’t have a long history with either goalie so theoretically he shouldn’t be shackled to any sense of loyalty.

It would be uncomfortable, especially for those of us who love Crawford, but December is going to be intense and if he can’t withstand the shitty defense, something has to be done. The Hawks could survive as a bubble team if Lehner can hold it together, and the front office would have a clearer direction of what to do when Crawford’s contract ends. Lehner could get another deal for a few more years, and Delia and Lankinen can fight it out for the backup spot.

They’re both good

What a problem to have, right? In this scenario it’s a 1/1A setup and starts are split nearly evenly, similar to what Lehner and Greiss did last year, with both guys throwing about a .920 SV%. Such a situation could possibly even overcome the terrible defense or at least the team could win despite the shit at the blue line. However, while this may sound like the best-case scenario, I for one do not trust the goalie-by-platoon method. I know, it’s worked in a couple situations but it makes me nervous. What if one guy is on a hot streak but you sit him? Can both maintain momentum when not playing as often? Can Lehner replicate it a second year? Maybe he can, and maybe it’s a good thing for Crawford too as the wear and tear doesn’t get to him plus there’s fewer chances for him to smash his head into a metal post or the ice again.

Any of those are possible, but I’m just saying that I don’t trust the committee strategy long-term. Making  a run in the playoff—as this team CLAIMS is the goal—when you don’t know who should start in goal is nerve-wracking, to say the least. Now of course, it’s important to have two good goalies, one of whom is a solid backup. Let’s remember how crappy Cam Ward was at times last year, and please know that I’m not saying we should have some schlub just so that the depth chart is clear.

But, if this team really does scam their way into the playoffs, platooning isn’t the strategy that’s going to give me a lot of confidence as they’re facing truly good teams. Is there also a component for the goalies themselves—resentment or frustration when the time actually comes? Maybe not, but again, that’s a lot of questions just posed about the goaltending situation, which is generally not where you want to be if you’re aiming for a deep playoff run.

They’re both bad

Well then we’re fucked.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

The short answer to all this is: we have no fucking clue. Yet. There are so many variables right now it’s impossible to predict, but it will begin to make itself known. And then we’ll have to see what CCYP and StanBo are willing to do—they’re terrified of Seabrook as we know, will they also be too scared of Crow to take the necessary steps, should they become necessary? I think they won’t be. Personally I think they’d tell him to hit the road with no sense of irony or shame. If Lehner is going to suck that will also make itself known, and then we’ll be stuck with what we’ve got and will wonder how to move forward after the season.

In comparison to the shit at the blue line, this goaltending situation shouldn’t leave us hiding behind our couches as we watch, at least for now. But no matter how it turns out, someone’s going to get hurt. Even if only in the emotional or metaphorical sense.

 

Hockey

Summer Doldrums – Projecting How the Blackhawks Will Do This Year

By John Pullega 2254 0

An active first two days of the week with the Dach signing on Monday and the curious-at-best Jokiharju trade Tuesday. The Hawks still haven’t traded Artem Anisimov, and I guess that that’s not horribly urgent, but it would make more sense if they did than if they didn’t. It might be hard for the Hawks to find a trading partner for a plodding third-line center with a $4.55 million per cap hit for the next two years who’s wide dicked his way into 20 goals three times in the past four years. But then again, Brandon Motherfucking Manning DID get a two-year deal for seven figures only to be traded and demoted last year, so I guess anything is possible. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

Because summer is categorically the worst season of the year, we’re left thinking about all the ways Chicago hockey can either surprise us or go entirely ass up this fall. We’ve done a lot of looking at the ass-up side of things, so maybe we can try to look at potential positives for your 2019–20 Chicago Blackhawks.

We like to lean on advanced stats to make points about why guys who seem underwhelming really aren’t (Brandon Saad) and to bitch about why guys who suck shouldn’t be getting the praise they do (Duncan Keith over the last two years). That’s what we’re going to do for this little exercise, because it’s only fair, and on the off chance that if Pierre McGuire ever reads this his stupid bald head might simply evaporate from his meek and mealy body.

Earlier this week, Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) posted a projection model, which you can play around with yourself (phrasing). The model uses WAR (wins above replacement) data from Evolving Wild (@EvolvingWild) and prospect data from Manny Perry (@mannyelk). In short, the model tries to predict a team’s full-season WAR based on different line, pairing, and goalie combinations. It also tries to predict how many points teams might get in the standings based on those lineups.

You bet your ass I played around with shit.

There are countless ways to guess at how the lineup for Beto O’Colliton will shake out. So I compared three potential lineups for the Hawks. I used Scott Powers’s most recent projections for the first one. I used my own projections for the second. And I used what I think would be an ideal lineup, based on the Hawks’s current roster, for the third. As you’ll see, this model gives a ton of room for hope, even if some restrictions apply. I used all the default TOI% projections for forwards and D-men, and adjusted the goalie splits to 50/50 instead of 70/30.

The Powers Projection

For this projection, I used Scott Powers’s most recent predictions for how the lines would shake out. He’s in the know, he’s trustworthy, so this is as good a place to start as any.

The first thing you might notice is that the Hawks project to end up with about 99 points in the standings with the Powers projection. That’s pretty good. In fact, that’s playoff good for last year. Colorado, Vegas, Dallas, and Columbus all made the playoffs with fewer points last year. Winnipeg, Carolina, and St. Louis all made it with 99 points.

There are a few caveats to this projection (and all of them, really).

The first is that we assume that the Bird Boys split time in net perfectly evenly. We’re doing this because that’s the feeling we get about what will happen based on the reports we read and on Crow’s injury history of late. With a perfectly even split, the model prefers Robin Lehner to Crow, likely based on Crow’s relatively poor overall stats over the past two years caused by various head injuries and historically bad defense. Interestingly, the model projects that if Lehner were to get up to 70% of the starts, his ProjFSW climbs all the way up to 8.2. This makes sense, since other than his one dry heave in Buffalo in 2017–18, Lehner’s looked as good or better than Crow statistically over the last four years. In fact, they both have a .918 SV% on their career. So if the end is nigh for Crow, Lehner is a solid—if not better—replacement for him on the ice, even if he is a shithead.

The second assumption is that Dominik Kabulik produces like Dominik Kahun did. Kabulik wasn’t available in this model, so I used Kahun as a stand-in, since Kahun’s 37 points and 0.8 WAR seem entirely conceivable for Kabulik to hit, based on how well the Hawks scout European players.

The Powers projection shows that the Lehner signing could be the difference maker for this team (if we get the version from last year at least) and that if the Hawks are truly committed to playing Seabrook on the third pairing, it will only be a disaster, rather than an unmitigated disaster. As constructed by Powers, this team could make the playoffs if everything goes perfectly.

The Pullega Projection

In this version of reality, we roll with what I think the Hawks will do, based solely on instinct and what I’ve read. Again, pretend Kabulik gives you Kahun numbers coming up. With the recent trade of my sweet boy Henri Jokiharju, it’s much more likely that Brent Seabrook plays more minutes than he should on the second pairing, because more grind something something. That’s also why I think we’ll see Shaw start out on the top line with Toews and Saad, even though Shaw is a better fit on the third line. I’d be surprised if Colliton throws Kabulik on the top line, but then again. With this projected lineup, if everything goes perfectly, the Hawks project to get 95 points, which makes them a bubble team.

 The Ideal Projection

So as I was writing this, Bowman traded Jokiharju, which is an incredibly stupid move given the context of the Hawks’s situation (i.e., the defense is an atrocity and Harju was decent at worst last year. Get red-assed with me here.) This definitely means that the Seabrook playings will continue until morale improves. But just for the hell of it, I plugged in Adam Boqvist. With this lineup, the Hawks project to be a 104-point team, which likely puts them in the playoffs pretty easily.

But as with all ideals, everything has to break perfectly. Kirby Dach has to stay and be good, and there’s no indication that he’ll stay regardless. Shit, Harju got traded for William Nylander’s younger, dumber, lazier younger brother—in what might be Stan’s most meta “getting the band back together” moment ever (Nylander’s father played for the Hawks for a few years in the late 90s–early aughts)—after being the best D-man on the team (small sample sizes be damned) just the other day. And having Boqvist play definitely shuts Seabrook out, which isn’t going to happen, maybe not even after Seabrook’s contract expires. Finally, this model really likes Olli Maatta, which may goose the projections a bit, but that might be confirmation bias on my part. If Maatta’s as good as the projections say, there’s hope with this ideal.

Projections can be fun, but they require a lot of things to go perfectly. And outside the de Haan trade, assuming his shoulder heals nicely and quickly, it’d be really hard to describe this offseason as anything even close to perfect. But we’re trying to be positive, for a change if nothing else.

In all, the forwards project to be good, just like last year. The goaltending projects to be better because of Lehner falling into their laps. And the defense has shown improvement, but we’re still skeptical about a lot of things, particularly de Haan and Maatta’s health, Maatta’s mobility, and the ever-present living eclipse that is Brent Seabrook.

The projections are kind. We can hope the reality reflects it.

Hockey

Well If I Knew It was Going To Be That Kind Of Party…

By Sam Fels 3098 0

Headline: Hawks sign Robin Lehner to a one-year, $5M deal.

Like all these things, I hesitate to write it up because it definitely feels like there’s another shoe or two to drop. On the surface, it doesn’t make that much sense. An $11M goaltending tandem on a team that’s screaming for other things–like any d-man who can skate or actual top-six help instead of the generic answer of Andrew Shaw–is weird. Sure, Lehner is a far surer answer than Collin Delia for whatever games the Hawks thought Delia would get. Is that worth $5M?

Lehner isn’t a sure thing himself. This is not a Trotz team in front of him, and he’s only a year removed from a .908 season behind a porous Sabres team. He also had a .924 behind that Sabres team, so he’s done this thing before. He’s a pretty good goalie, let’s say that.

So let’s deal with the questions. The big one being….

What does it mean for Corey Crawford?

Anything? One, it could be that the Hawks know that Crawford’s health is permanently tainted or gone, and might not even play. There hasn’t been a whisper of that all summer, and given the way he finished the season that didn’t seem to be the case at all. Things obviously could have changed, and maybe Crawford has hinted to the team he doesn’t want to play anymore. Again, there hasn’t been a sliver of that in the wind at all, and would be a surprise.

Two, the Hawks don’t trust Crawford’s health, which makes way more sense. They think they have a chance at the playoffs (and in the West, anyone should), and don’t want it to be torched by another Crawford absence and they don’t think Delia is up to the challenge of carrying them. Delia flashed some things last year but he didn’t prove that he can carry and NHL workload yet. If you think it’s imperative the Hawks make the playoffs this year, or more to the point if they do, they don’t want to risk that on a kid with 18 games in the NHL. Fair.

Three, they’re going to try to move Crawford. He is in the last year of his deal. He’ll be 35 when the season ends. Even given perfect health, the question of re-signing him is going to be a very tricky one all season and especially next summer. And teams would still want Crawford. You an’t just trade for goalies with two Jennings and two rings every day, even with his very dicey health status. Fuck, wouldn’t the Flames leap at the chance right now? The Canes? The Sharks? That’s off the top of my head. It’s not a possibility I want to think about, but it’s there.

Or…

A tandem?

We’ve seen this here before, which was Huet and Khabibulin.  The latter was going into the last year of his deal, but that combined with having his starting role challenged inspired Khabby to a pretty good year as the Hawks returned to the playoffs. Still, it seems odd. If Crawford is healthy and staying, then there’s no way the Hawks are going to evenly split these starts. Maybe 50-32? You can see why they’d do that, because there would be little if any drop and the Hawks are determined to get .920 goaltending most if not every night.

Lastly…

Isn’t Lehner a raging dickbag?

Why yes, he is. But we lost that fight long ago, and he probably isn’t the only one. No ethical capitalism and all that.

Still, the Hawks are now down to just $1M in cap space, which makes an Anisimov trade almost mandatory now for any in-season flexibility. And they’re a cap team with no top pairing d-man and a hole on the wings. That’s…abstract. And if they can’t find a home for Arty, are they going to have to lose Connor Murphy just to open up any kind of space? Saad?

Yes, the Hawks are improved by having Lehner over Delia, whatever that role ends up being. Are they if it’s Lehner and Delia with Crawford traded? Depends on the return. Or if Crawford is on LTIR all year, depends on what they do with it.

We’ll need answers. Because these seem a lot of questions.