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Let’s Trade For Taylor Hall Before Everyone Realizes This Is Bulls**t

By Sam Fels 2751 0

First thing to wake up to today:

Now, as most know, Taylor Hall has been a fascination of mine for a while, though that hardly makes me unique. And it would make sense that Hall might not want to sign an extension in New Jersey. If for no other reason, some players are just very curious to do the free agent tour, to see what all their options are, or hell, just to be courted by at least 2/3rds of the league and feel like the big dick. Fuck, why wouldn’t you? Oh right, injury or down performance or something. Still, if Hall were to go on the open market next summer, you could make the argument it would be an even bigger deal than when John Tavares did, because JT didn’t have a Hart on his resume.

Second, even with Jack Hughes coming to town, the Devils are at least two years from serious contention and possibly longer, and might not even be a playoff team next season. They were 26 points off the pace last season, have no defense to speak of really, and MacKenzie Blackwood may or may not be a goalie. You can see where Hall might not want to bet whatever’s left of his prime on that hunch.

Further ratcheting up the frenzy is that Hall’s cap number is just $6M this year, which is pretty manageable for anyone remotely desperate. Off the top of my head, teams around contention that would want and need Hall are the Penguins, Bruins, Panthers, Jackets, Canes, Flyers, Islanders, Stars, Blues, Predators, Flames, and I’m probably missing a few. Look, everyone needs Taylor Hall. Everyone could find a spot for him.

Oh, and New Jersey is just a shitty place to play. Let’s end the case there. It’s fucking New Jersey. I just want to pretend that Hall hates Springsteen as much as I do and has had enough. Let me have it.

Which brings us to the Hawks. There’s no question that they have a hole in the top six. Hall would actually be something of an odd fit in some ways. He’s not the prototypical left winger to maximize playing with Kane, because he also likes to have the puck and create his own space and shot. Not that the two of them couldn’t make it work, but he’s not the spot-up shooter than Top Cat is on the power play or Sharp was in his heyday or Panarin could turn into when need be. Which means you’d probably be better off playing Hall with Toews, except there’s no one really on the right side of that. Again, you could put Kane there and have an absolute doomsday of a top line with Toews doing more of the finding space thing, leaving Hall to create it, and then hammock Strome and Top Cat on the second line.

Both of these scenarios mean either flipping Saad to the right side, which he’s never really taken to, or moving him permanently to the third line, or involving him in this trade or another. Funny how Saad and Hall make the same amount of money, no?

You may think it doesn’t behoove the Hawks to go after what is essentially a rental, but I think it’s perfect. One, it keeps his trade value down. And this is the kind of player that you start the process of drafting Bowen Byram, and then packaging some combination of Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudein, Jokiharju (maybe with Saad or Anisimov) to improve your team now. Second, it gives you flexibility next year and evaluation time this year. Perhaps Kubalik, Kahun, or Kurashev really pop this season, along with another 40 goals from Top Cat, and you thank Hall for his services while you commit his money to other players you think you can step up. Maybe the cap takes a bigger leap up. I don’t know, who cares, fuck you.

Yes, I realize that Hall isn’t a defenseman. But his cap hit isn’t so destructive for one season that you can’t find an additional upgrade there as well, whether or not the Hawks draft Byram and whether or not he then skips right to the NHL. Remember, Crawford’s number comes off the books next year too, and you might jettison Saad’s and/or Anisimov’s in the next year as well. There is flexibility for Hall and oh I don’t know…a certain #65 together for a season.

You can actually do this without forfeiting your future. The #3 pick allows you that. Your director of amateur scouting just came out and said that they’ll never get all these defensive prospects on the roster, so you know you have to make a move or two anyway. Play your cards right, and you should still have at least two of your four kids already in the system on the blue line, Byram/Turcotte and whatever else you pick up this draft.

You want to get back in the headlines? You want to vault yourself back into contention in a division that appears like it’s only going to get worse? Then grow a pair and make this move before everyone realizes Pagnotta is actually just a glorified bullhorn.

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Recap – A Game I Definitely Watched And Was Not Drunkenly Passed Out For

By Sam Fels 1514 0

That’s absolutely true. I was not snoring and drooling on my couch for the first 30 minutes of this contest in a European Champions stupor only to discover the game was over when I came to. Definitely saw the whole thing. It was that important to me. I thought it mattered that much, and wouldn’t find the missing of any of it actual sweet relief to my psyche. Nope, no siree bob.

When I awo…I mean I watched the Blues take seven penalties, including three in the first, which is very Blues. I definitely saw that Jordan Binnington further proved that he’s pretty much just been “a dude” since like March 1st. He’s at .909 for the playoffs now, which is hardly remarkable. And by the time St. Louis could launch any sort of response they were done and Tuukka Rask could yawn his way through the last 40. Definitely witnessed it all.

-As I guessed, or maybe just hoping, the “rust” issue was a problem for the Bruins in Game 2 and not Game 1. The overwhelming adrenaline of the Final beginning got them through, and they skated away from the Blues forecheck pretty much every time. They looked leggy in Game 2 and couldn’t get away from that Blues pressure, and you got what you got. They only had to do it for the first period last night, but the Bruins had their d-men take a half-step up, force the Blues to dump the puck in a touch quicker, which gives them more space to retrieve the puck and move their feet or move their puck quickly. Even with Grzelcyk they were able to do this. Or at least Krug and Carlo were able to, which was enough.

-Noted New Genius Craig Berube chose not to keep sending his top line of Schenn-Schwartz-Tarasenko as the completely outpaced Chara, and though the O’Reilly line was able to turn Chara’s head into something resembling an anvil most of the night, that caused his top line to do most of the chasing of Krug. And the Blues need that top line to be in the offensive end and score, because they’re not going to get the goals consistently from the likes of TO BLAIS WHICH MEANS TO BLUFF and Perron and Maroon and the other clowns that comprise their bottom six. Considering the way the Blues top line tossed around Chara and McAvoy in Boston you’d think you’d stick with it. But Berube is a genius now, as we’ve stated, so what do I know?

-Speaking of genius, Bergeron’s line had as much time as Coyle’s and Nordstrom’s line, which is definitely a plan for success. Yes, Bergeron is not healthy but come on, man. David Pastrnak had more ice time than only two other forwards on the Bruins. There’s taking your foot off the gas and then there’s whatever this is.

-The Blues led in hits so that means they really won, right?

-This is Binnington’s biggest reverse since taking over the starter’s job, and should be interesting to see how he responds. He had only given up more than three goals three times all season, but the Blues will need a rebound effort from him. But again, since March 1st his SV% is .910. Which is fine. It’s not great. It’s barely good or average. It’s not going to get it done here.

Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw: The Champions League Final, or Playing Mad Libs with Metaphors

By Rose Rankin 1247 0

I was trying to decide what to compare the Champions League final to, and—spoiler alert—there isn’t really something that’s comparable in a 1-to-1 way. At first I thought Super Bowl, but this isn’t like two teams coming from two conferences, a neat and clean path to the championship, although the hype and significance of the game itself may be reminiscent of the Super Bowl.

This isn’t like the Stanley Cup Finals either, even though they’re a circuitous path to winning. Champions League includes the top teams from leagues across Europe, so the clubs change (to a degree) each year as league play has the knock-on effect of determining a Champions League berth. And alas, as much as we would prefer never to watch the Ottawa Senators play a professional game again, this variability doesn’t happen in the NHL.

It’s not even really analogous to the World Cup. Yes, both tournaments feature pool play and then knockout rounds, but that’s like saying basketball in the Olympics is the same as the NBA Finals.
It’s not—national(ist) sentiment is different than rooting for your club. Suffice it to say, this is a unique event that combines arduous schedules and length of time, intense fan loyalty, and an international flair all into one.

How Did We Get Here?

And what about the teams themselves? It’s Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, whose name will never not be funny to me because it’s so stereotypically British (say “hotspur” in your head with a British accent). On the one hand, these are both Premier League teams so what the fuck? On the other hand, this is part of the charm—there’s no best of the worst coming from one division or one conference; they earned the right to be here, league be damned.

Is it a David and Goliath scenario? Ehh, not exactly. Liverpool is a powerhouse, but they had issues of their own getting here. Up and down their lineup they’re stacked, including having two of the world’s best forwards in Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino, literally the world’s best defender in Virgil van Dijk, and yet another superlative in goalkeeper in Alisson Becker. However, in the semifinal they ran up against Lionel Messi’s Barcelona and promptly got their ass kicked in the first leg 3-0. To make matters worse, in the second leg a bunch of those “world’s best” I just named didn’t even play—notably Salah and Firmino. And yet, they came out and destroyed Barca 4-0, thanks to substitute Georginio Wijnaldum and his two goals coming within minutes of each other early in the second half. This changed the entire nature of the match, since they had to not just win it but win by more than three goals—really fucking hard to do. (Another relative rando, Divock Origi, had the other two so clearly they can do it without the big names.)

In a way it’s almost like two Cinderella stories because as crazy as Liverpool’s comeback was, Tottenham’s berth is even more insane. They were seconds away from losing to Manchester City in the quarterfinals when a goal got called back for being offside, letting the Spurs squeak by what is, on paper at least, a much better team. A hat trick by Lucas Moura in the second half of the second leg of the semis against Ajax got them here—not unlike Liverpool popping off for a bunch of goals in the last possible moment. And all of this happened without their top striker, Harry Kane, who’s been injured for months. Again, like Liverpool, the entire team made the difference as opposed to reliance on one star player (as Barcelona and Juventus with Messi and Ronaldo, respectively, are painfully aware).

So Where Is It Going?

That’s all fine and good—now what the hell is going to happen, right? Well, Liverpool is ostensibly the better team, particularly with Salah and Firmino playing, and is definitely a big favorite to win. But then again, the Spurs should have been out two rounds ago, should have lost to these other, better teams, and sometimes emotion and momentum are enough in a one-match situation, just like a game 7.

Personally, I think Tottenham will do their thing where they dominate possession but make just enough mistakes for Liverpool to capitalize. Van Dijk practically lets no one get by him with the ball, and I expect the Spurs will struggle to get past him and the rest of the backfield, and even if they do they have Alisson to deal with. Meanwhile, Liverpool can take advantage quickly, move the ball through the midfield and have enough scoring threats to catch Spurs goalkeeper Hugo Lloris on the back foot. He’s not terrible, but I’ll take Alisson over Lloris ten out of ten times. And they only need to do it once, maybe twice, and then shut down Son, Moura and Kane, who will likely play but I question if he’ll be much of a factor coming back from a months-long recovery for an ankle injury.

This is what is likely to happen, but this entire run has been full of unlikely turns of events so I reserve the right to hedge on this. To complicate things further, both the coaches are also world-class-superlative guys. Mauricio Pochettino has done incredible things with a veritable MASH unit all year and may be coaching himself to a better gig, and Jurgen Klopp has been here twice and never won the final, so there’s both experience and ridiculous determination for the prize (especially after losing out on the Premier League title by one fucking point).

It will not be dull and it won’t lack for championship drama—that much I’m confident about. Because, oh yeah, on top of everything, one of those finals that Klopp lost was with Liverpool last year, and Salah got injured early in the game and that is some major motivation for everyone involved. It’s more pressure too, but between the down-to-the-wire Premier League race and this drama, they should be getting used to it.

Even if you’re not that into soccer, this one will be worth your time.

Everything Else

I’m Not Sure I’m Ready For A Corey Crawford Farewell Tour

By Sam Fels 1818 0

This is probably not the time to discuss it, as there will be plenty of opportunity starting in training camp. And whether Corey Crawford is Vezina-level again, or can’t find it at all, as the season moves toward the expiration of his contract at its conclusion, that question is only going to get bigger. But we’re not doing anything at the moment, so let’s at least get it started.

What prompts this is Kevin Lankinen’s gold-medal winning performance at the World Championships. Now, a hot two weeks doesn’t a prospect make. Lankinen only had 19 games at Rockford last year, and he wasn’t particularly good. He even spent some time in Indy. Then again, the year before, Collin Delia spent some time in Indy, had a hot few weeks in the AHL playoffs, and he’s something of the Hawks main prospect in net now.

Backing this up is that generally, Stan and his front office have been pretty good at identifying young goalies. That’s how I’m going to get around the whole Cam Ward thing. Stan has cycled through Antti Niemi, Crawford himself (only sorta but he did get the starting job under Stan), Antti Raanta, and Scott Darling, who have all had at least reasonable NHL success at times. They did salvage Ray Emery. A bunch of others haven’t worked out, but the ones that get to Rockford tend to be something.

Whatever, the Hawks likely will enter camp with Lankinen and Delia to battle it out for the backup spot. And anyone in the backup spot to Crawford these days has to be trusted to take the wheel for a stretch or two at least. This is a spot where the Hawks can save some cash, because any viable, veteran backup might eat up two to three million that can be used elsewhere.

But the question that will come with whoever wins the job (and you can see where they’ll rotate between the backup and Rockford and both gets starts on the top roster) is whether or not they’ll be ready to take over the following season. Or whether they’ll get the chance.

Crow is entering his age-35 season. And you’re hard-pressed to find too many goalies who go beyond that. I don’t think it’s fair to compare anything to Tim Thomas, as that appears to be a strange, tin-foil hatted, bunker-filling anomaly that won’t happen again. He came out of nowhere, which isn’t the story with just about anyone else, especially Crawford. Pekka Rinne just finished his age-36 season, and it was pretty all right in a total .918 and more encouragingly, he closed strong in March and April. Roberto Luongo had solid seasons at 35, 36, and 38. Beyond that though to find really good seasons past 35, you’d be hard-pressed. Good seasons, yes. Mike Smith had one (that’s not a name that will make you feel better though), Ryan Miller had one, one or two other names.

On the flip side, Henrik Lundqvist, perhaps the best goalie of the generation and one that Crawford has, y’know, the same lifetime SV% as, started to go stale last year at 36. To be fair, he was behind a horrible Rangers team, and his actual save-percentage at evens was higher than his expected, so maybe he was just drowning thanks to his defense. We’ll see next year.

It’s not that I’m worried about Crawford turning bad in the next year or two. That’s purely tied to health, and as we saw in March last season that a healthy Crow still put up a .920 behind one of the worst defenses of the decade. Even that Crow is still going to leave the Hawks with a decision.

The scenario you easily see, given what you know about the Hawks’ operating history, is that Crow has a blistering October and November, and is handed a two- or three-year extension right then and there. We know the Hawks like to take care of their guys. We know they don’t like to let anyone important get into the last year of their deal at all. Only Crow’s health has allowed him to get this far into his contract without an extension, I’m sure.

In a vacuum, you’d let it all play out. You see how Crow plays, you see how the kids play, you decide next summer. But we know the Hawks don’t operate in a vacuum, and they’re utterly terrified of facing questions like this during the season. They never really have. Keith was locked up to prevent that ever happening. Toews and Kane were re-signed as soon as possible. Seabrook signed his deal before the last year of his previous contract ever started. Going back farther, Patrick Sharp was extended before getting close to free agency. Hjalmarsson was signed to his last extension before the last season of his previous contract started as well. The Hawks just don’t do this.

But none of them were 35, or going to be in-season. None of them had the health industry. None of them, pretty much, had the sometimes dicey relationship with the organization that Crow has had in the past.

As we’ve previously discussed, the Hawks will have some big checks to sign next summer to Alex DeBrincat and possibly Dylan Strome, with smaller but possibly not insignificant checks to go to Dominik Kahun or Dominik Kubalik (and possibly Erik Gustafsson if they want to make a huge mistake). Savings have to come from somewhere.

I’m just not ready for any of this.

 

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 2 Recap – Oh For F–k’s Sake

By Sam Fels 1860 0

I suppose on a day when yet another professional sports team gets in bed with BarfStool it’s only right they get their dicks kicked in at home, which is essentially what the Bruins did despite the game going to overtime. This series is certainly make everyone taste their own bile, with the Bruins off the ice and the Blues on it, but here we are and now the Blues have won a Final game for the first time and nothing feels right and pretty much everything sucks. They should just cancel this thing tomorrow and the overwhelming majority of people would be happy.

I guess I have to clean it up.

-The Bruins aren’t going to win many games, if any, when their top line is getting turned over by the other team’s top line. Which is exactly what happened last night, as Schenn-Swartz-Tarasenko turned that trick. Not helping the cause at all, and the one thing we pointed out the Bruins had to do from Game 1 to 2, was sending out Zdeno Chara behind Bergeron to deal with that threat, because he isn’t up for it. Check out Tarasenko’s goal for further proof if you need, where he looked like your elderly neighbor trying to get a weed out of the yard. It’s trickier after Grzelcyk got hurt and the Bs were down to five D and still only gave Clifton 16 minutes, but you know you’ve got a matchup wrong when the other team is going to go running for it when they get the home ice on Saturday. And you can bet your ass St. Louis will. If Chara ever starts a shift anywhere but the offensive zone, fire Bruce Cassidy into the nearest landfill, which in St. Louis is always right down the block.

-Torey Krug is the only blue-liner to come out with any credit and in the black possession-wise for Boston, and that’s mostly because he’s already driven the Blues into frothing madness and they spend his entire shift trying to hunt him down like it was a fox hunt. This will only get worse in front of the braying rabble and their truck nuts, and the Bruins will score off a rush through that space at least once.

-To pin it all on Chara and the Bs ineptness isn’t fair. I thought the Blues would have to step back and basically trap, and they did so at times. They also were able to turn up the volume on their forecheck, which you can do once or twice but not convinced for a whole series. If anything, the rust everyone was worried about looked like it was more present in Game 2 as adrenaline got the Bruins through Game 1. They definitely looked too relaxed at points and it was no match for the fury of the other group.

-David Krejci showing up at some point would be nice.

-Schwartz threw up a 78% Corsi and an 81% xGF% going out there against Chara, if you’d like to know the scope of the problem here.

-Tuukka Rask made some of his own messes last night, as his rebound control was less than stellar. It prolongated too many Blues possessions and the overtime winner, though on a delayed call, was an example of something that could have been smothered earlier.

-Curious to see what Anointed Genius Berube does Saturday, as Pietrangelo was used exclusively in the offensive zone last night. If they’re going to choose to send Parayko and Edmundson at Bergeron every shift in St. Louis, I think that will go well for those of us who want this to be over quickly.

-Oskar Sundqvist’s hit was bad, I don’t know if it’s suspension bad but then again if you’re trying to eliminate this thing from hockey it has to be. There was never a point where he didn’t see Grzelcyk’s numbers, it was also late and useless, and the NHL is going to have to start erring on the side of harsh instead of lenient if it ever truly wants change. Which it probably doesn’t.

-Sammy Blais doesn’t do anything but run around like an idiot and get knocked on his ass. What a perfect representation of everything it is to be a Blue. He’s Tom Wilson without any of the whimsy.

Let’s just hope that was a one game belch.

Everything Else

Bettman’s Address Is Always Good At Saying Nothing

By Sam Fels 1605 0

I don’t expect to get much out of Gary Bettman press conferences. His address at the start of the Final is never quite like Roger Goodell’s at the Super Bowl, though he never says anything much ever either. Something about being a commissioner, you just have to be really good at saying nothing. Unless you’re Rob Manfred, and you end up saying the wrong thing a good portion of the time. But hey, better than Bud Selig… I think?

ANYWHO…

A good portion of Bettman’s presser was about replay, as apparently we’re supposed still be in a rage over Timo Meier’s hand-pass even though the Blues didn’t lose another game that series (like they were supposed to). Bettman hit all the right notes about “balance” and “pace and rhythm” of the game and such. But you know, the more I think about it, the more there is a limit to what you can review and how it might not be something that keeps expanding until infinity. Maybe.

One, I still pretty much think that the challenge system is ridiculous and far inferior to an additional official in a box with a bank of screens communicating with the refs on the ice via headset. However, the challenge system has kind of relegated the offsides review to the hail mary that it usually is. Coaches banking a delay of game penalty on it has kept them from just throwing any challenge out there and losing just a timeout. That really shouldn’t be discounted. As far as losing that timeout of goalie interference, well, one would actually have to define what goalie interference is and they haven’t gotten there yet.

Still, when it comes to goals, what are we really talking about here? Kicked in, goalie interference, crossed the line, high stick (which seemingly never gets called). Right now, that’s it. That doesn’t seem a huge scope of things that adding hand-passes and whether the puck went out of play before a goal would make this a mountain that a bunch of rich people will die on of possible reviews (Topical!). And the puck going out of play could probably mostly be solved with the nets above the glass being white instead of black, as the lighting in most arenas makes a ripple on a black net really hard to see but much easier on a white one.

That seems possible. Restrict it to hand-passes in the offensive zone and let’s go. All goals are reviewed anyway, we’ve already gotten accustomed to that. I still don’t know why all sports haven’t employed a 30-second limit on reviews (well, I know why the NFL did because they figured out they could cram in another ad or two). If I can tell on my couch after a look or two if something is clear or not, so can they.

As far as reviewing delay of game calls or shots to the head…again, a 30-second clock or simply a video ref radioing down without the need of the refs to go to a phone would solve a lot of this. Yes, NHL arenas can’t get loud but if European soccer refs can manage, so can NHL ones. But that would depend on how seriously the NHL wants to crack down on hits to the head.

I also still contend that moving one ref or both off the ice and to a perch above the glass would solve a lot, as they would spend no time protecting their face or trying to get out of the way of play and could actually watch the action full-time. But I’m not going to sit on a hot stove waiting for that one.

-Bettman also addressed the CBA, which is looming. I’ll give him that he doesn’t pin peace on the NHLPA exclusively, while still firing an opening salvo, saying that both sides have things they’d probably like to change but overall everyone is doing well.

For the most part, you’d have to say both sides are doing well. The owners have the 50-50 split they’ve craved. and players at the top of the chain are getting theirs. Young players, except for the truly elite, are still eating it, but that’s more a fight between players before it even gets to the owners.

So a couple simple things I would want the players to try and get without a lockout, as if there’s any hope of avoiding that. One is an NBA-style mid-level exception or two. It’s vets that are getting squeezed out by teams only concentrating on top end talent and then young, cheap talent. We see a raft of players on PTOs come training camp that really should have contracts. Something like $3-$4 million, or two $3M slots, for players that are over 27 or have seven years in the league or thereabouts.

Second, get rid of the cap recapture penalty. It was a stupid idea in the first place that I can’t believe the union went along with, and punished teams and players for what they did under a different system. It’ll open up flexibility for some teams, and end this ridiculous saga of players having to be on LTIR for four years or whatever that is just silly. Those are two things I would want, which wouldn’t break any owners.

Of course, the owners, if they were ever to agree to any of this, would want something in return. But fuck ’em. They’ve got enough.

Everything Else

From This Seat, It’s The Bruins You Should Look To

By Sam Fels 1699 0

Let’s make it clear up front: There’s nothing you should look to St. Louis for other than to make sure it’s in your rearview mirror. You can’t learn anything from sludge and drool, obviously. While I was one of many wishing the Hawks had shown the Blues’ urgency last summer, that doesn’t mean what the Blues are doing is necessarily a stable model. A hot four months with a goalie from nowhere doesn’t exactly project to sustained success and contending for baubles in the years to come. Especially with a blue line that’s getting older and couldn’t move in the first place. So it’s pieces like this from friend of the program Scott Powers that make be urpy. That doesn’t mean there aren’t things in there that are true, but the Hawks could learn a lot more from the Bruins, and that’s because they come from a much similar place. In fact, they almost come from the same one.

Cast your mind back to 2013, though it seems a lifetime ago now. It’s easy to forget just how much those two teams were alike and how much they shared the same platform. At that point, the Bruins were in their second Final in three years, the Hawks their second in four. Both had one championship. And considering how close that series was (it was inches away from a Game 7, it was inches away from a Bruins sweep, it was inches away from the Hawks winning in five, it basically could not have been any closer), they both came out of it a few sheets of paper’s distance away from each other.

And looking back and now, you could argue the same amount and quality of personnel threads each team from that time to today. Bergeron, Marchand, Chara, Rask don’t really look all  that different than Toews, Kane, Keith, and Crawford. There are margins, but the total wouldn’t be too much different. Add in Pastrnak for Boston, but we could add in DeBrincat for the Hawks and we’re still kind of the same.

So how did each get here exactly?

You know the Hawks went onto another conference Final and a Cup after that (agonizingly close to two Cups), but what you might have forgotten is that the Bruins were the Presidents’ Trophy winners in ’13-’14 and there were a good portion of people who thought we were headed for a Final rematch. The Bruins ran into Carey Price in Round 2, and also lost their minds, but that doesn’t detract from the fact they were one of, if not the, best team in the league that year. Between the two seasons the Bruins moved along Tyler Seguin, but for one season at least they had Jarome Iginla scoring 30 goals and Reilly Smith chipping in 20 to shield the idiocy of that trade. Torey Krug joined the blue line, and basically it was the ’13 team after that.

The Bs “collapse,” as it were, started the next season, while the Hawks were adding #3. And it was maybe for reasons you might recognize. Quite simply, Bergeron and Marchand didn’t score, combining for 97 points (a total Marchand passed himself this year and nearly did the previous two seasons). Trades the Bs had made started to not work out in delay, as Loui Eriksson was finished, the goals dried up for Smith. The defensive depth started to erode, as Boychuk was moved along for cap reasons and Seidenberg got old in a hurry. Some kids like Spooner and Pastrnak, in his rookie year, were not up to making up the difference yet. They would miss the playoffs.

And they would do so again the next season. Bergeron and Marchand were better, but not good enough. Dougie Hamilton was traded for literally nothing. Chara began to show his age, and the defensive depth behind him and Krug was simply nothing. There were no forwards beyond the top line. Rask was only ok.

The seeds were planted for what the Bruins are now the next year, when they racked up 95 points and returned to the playoffs, though they lost to that woeful Senators team being dragged by the dick by Erik Karlsson. But Pastrnak exploded onto the scene in his third year. Brandon Carlo made his debut. Charlie McAvoy debuted in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean there weren’t missteps in free agency or offseason, as I point to Backes, Beleskey, and Jimmy Hayes. But the roots were growing.

Over the past two seasons, the Bruins have brought in DeBrusk, Grzelcyk, and others that they turned into Coyle or Johansson or whoever else.

Now which looks more similar to the Hawks? The Bruins or Blues? Pretty obvious, no? The Bruins had an entrenched core that underperformed in some years (and if you don’t think Bergeron heard some of the same things that Toews did during his down years here then you’ve clearly never been to or read anything written out of Boston), but they held onto and filled in behind. They had a Hall of Fame d-man who could no longer dominate games, but the difference is that he eventually accepted his limited skills and role and let others take the bigger responsibilities. The Hawks haven’t gotten there yet.

And in essence, the Hawks are already in this process, it’s just that they started later than the Bruins did (as they should have) and their stars are going to be older when it’s all done. But the Hawks are loading up on mobile, skilled d-men with the hopes of relieving Keith of his duties in the next two years. All of whom are mobile and able to play with the puck, just as McAvoy, Krug, Carlo, and Grzelcyk can. There is already hope that they have some forwards to take secondary roles behind the main trio, if that trio can hold on for a few more years (also, Toews, Kane, and Top Cat are exactly the same age as Pastrnak, Marchand, and Bergeron combined).

The Bruins were in the wilderness for two to three years, depending on how you categorize that first-round exit. The Hawks definitely have been for two, and possibly three depending on how fluky you think that division winning team that got flattened in the first round was. While they thrashed about in some areas and definitely made their mistakes, eventually the Bruins waited around long enough to fill in behind their legends through their own system. The Hawks are now farther behind than the Bruins were, because they have pretty much nothing on defense at the top level. But they’re also on the same path.

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 1 Recap: Well That’s Reassuring

By Sam Fels 1471 0

As it’s the Final, we’ll give you actual recaps instead of the smartass quips we’ve specialized in the past couple months. They’ll just take a while because we have to stop throwing up first. 

If you’re watching this series while holding your nose and just hoping that it will end quickly, then last night is what you wanted. Yes, the Bruins were a bit rusty…for about 10 minutes. After that, everything we’ve thought about the Blues-their defense isn’t that good, Binnington has been fine but hardly spectacular, and the Bruins depth and star power is better–came to fruition. One game doesn’t a narrative make, but there is a lot more the Blues have to solve while the Bruins have just been doing what they have been and will only need to continue to do so. This was a complete ass-kicking for at least two-thirds of the game.

Let’s do some bullets.

The Two Obs

-You should never take anything Barry Melrose says seriously, and the biggest clue that ESPN doesn’t care about hockey is that he remains in their employ even though I don’t think he’s watched a game since 2001 (including his coaching stint), but he wasn’t the only one who was championing this series as something of a “return.” That’s only based on what the Blues only kind of are and the reputation the Bruins have even though they haven’t been that for years. But there was this idea both teams are big and bad and the idea of a lot of fast and nippy wingers with skill aren’t the way forward and that this was TRUE HOCKEY. Horseshit.

The Blues simply couldn’t handle the Bruins forecheck, because their defense is so goddamn slow. Their only d-man who can move is Vinnie Bag Of Donuts Dunn, and he’s hurt. There were turnovers galore early, which then had the Blues defense backing up at their line when the Bruins were carrying in trying to cheat to win the races down low later. Which only gave the speed the Bruins have at forward more space to the outside to carry the puck in and create, which led to the Blues never having the puck and having tire treads to remove from their chests this morning.

But the real differences in these teams, and one we’ll get to later today that the Hawks should be paying particular attention to, is the mobility of the Bruins defense. Chara was awful, the rest were very much not. McAvoy, Krug, Grzelcyk (especially), and Clifton are all at least mobile enough to open up a passing lane for themselves to evade the Blues forecheck, which has been pretty furious at times this spring. Or they just outright get away from them, and even when the Bruins are attacking the St. Lous line three-on-three or four-on-three, the Blues defense is backing up. You want to know why the Bruins dominate possession all season even beyond the Bergeron line? There you go.

-I saw a good portion of Blues Twitter saying, “We’ll be all right when we stop taking penalties.’ Because that’s a thing that’s happened the past 30 years.

–Jordan Binnington made over 30 saves, only the third time he’s had to do so this playoff run. But if the Bruins are going to toss 35 shots at him a night, this is what the Blues are going to get. 34 out of 37 saves is good. It’s not great, and that’s mostly what Binnington has done. It’ll have to be better than what the Bruins will get on the other side.

-The only unit for the Blues that wasn’t covered in their own piss by the end of the night was their top line of Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko, which got their two goals as well. The adjustment I would expect the Bruins to make is to get Chara out of that matchup, though it’s a risk to try it with Brandon Carlo and Torey Krug, given the latter’s defensive balloon-handedness. But Chara simply isn’t up to it and that much was clear, and you don’t want to be jumbling your pairs at this point.

For the Blues, playing this way of trying to trade forechecks is going to get them this. Their defense will get snowed in, the Bruins will get away from theirs, and they’ll spend the night chasing. It would seem their only option for Game 2 is to go Trotz and trap this up and make McAvoy and Krug weave through it. That would allow their slow d-men to back up at their line while still being protected and not leaving acres to the outside. Then they might have a chance of retrieving pucks and moving it along without getting clobbered. The more the Blues try to speed this up the more they’re going to get exposed.

Let’s hope for that, so we don’t have to be here long.

Everything Else

F*ck It Dude, Let’s Get P.K. Subban

By John Pullega 3426 0

Last week, The Maven brought up the idea of trading Brandon Saad. You should read the whole thing, but the SparkNotes version is that the Hawks might have as many as three forwards who can maybe do what Saad does for less money. This money will be important for re-signing Alex DeBrincat after next year.

While we’ve been hemming and hawing over how the Hawks need to make a legitimate run at Erik “My Crotch Is Itchy” Karlsson, it’s hard to picture the organization having the stomach to pay him the $12 million per over eight years he’ll probably ask for (and deserve). EK65 will always be the dream(boat), but you can see the Hawks balking, with DeBrincat and possibly Strome asking for the money the Hawks owe them in arrears for setting the world on fire.

With all that in mind, there are three things the Hawks should be looking to do this offseason:

1. Shore up the defense

2. Improve the penalty kill

3. Add a top-six forward

Shoring up the defense and improving the penalty kill are so far ahead of adding a top-six forward in my view that if the Hawks decided to trade Brandon Saad—who himself is a top-six winger, even if Beto O’Colliton thinks he was born for this third-line horseshit—to solve the first two problems, I wouldn’t even be mad.

I’ll stop edging you here.

Let’s offer Brandon Saad, Erik Gustafsson, and a pick/prospect for P.K. Subban.

How the FUCK Did You Come Up With That?

After the Preds were hilariously bounced from the playoffs much earlier than anticipated, the trade rumors around Pernell-Karl began circulating immediately. (Whether they’re true or not doesn’t matter right now. We’re bored and don’t really want to think about the Cup, so this is what we’re doing.) If there’s even a small consideration that David Poile would trade someone as dynamic, fashionable, and wonderful as P.K. Subban, you absolutely must make a phone call, division rivalry be damned. (As much as I’d like to use the Hartman–Ejdsell trade as proof that in-division trades can happen, what I’m proposing is a much more unwieldy beast than that.)

P.K. Subban on the Hawks definitely shores up the defense. He most likely improves the penalty kill as well.

OK, Dumbass, Why Would Nashville Ever Do That?

Let’s say you get Poile on the phone and offer Saad, Gus, and a pick/prospect. Let’s say the pick/prospect is either Boqvist or this year’s second round pick (#43 overall). Is this comparable? Let’s start with the stats.

2018–19 GP G A P CF% xGF%
P.K. Subban 63 9 22 31 53.61 50.54
B. Saad 80 23 24 47 52.69 47.27
E. Gustafsson 79 17 43 60 50.24 45.50

Last year was Subban’s worst year as a professional hockey player. He posted his lowest games-played total (not counting the season-in-a-can in 2013), his lowest assists total, his lowest points total, and third-lowest goals total. He was out for six weeks nursing an upper body injury, which no doubt contributed to his off year.

Compare that to the two players the Hawks would give up. Erik Gustafsson not only had the best year of his career by far but also was one of the best offensive D-men statistically in the NHL last year. He and P.K. Subban have exactly the same number of 60-point seasons under their belts. He’s also younger (27 vs. 30) and on a much friendlier albeit soon-to-be-ending contract ($1.2 million vs. $9 million). Something tells me you can use these points to convince Poile it’s not a bad idea.

Likewise, Brandon Saad’s 47 points would have made him a top-five scorer for the Preds last year. His 23 goals would be third behind Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg. His 24 assists would also be top five on the Preds.

Based solely on last year’s numbers, this trade is a huge win for the Preds, statistically.

But of course, we can’t neglect history. P.K. Subban is without a doubt one of the top D-men of his generation. He’s been a consistent force on both sides of the puck and on both sides of the special-teams ledger. His presence on the PP is devastating, and in the four years prior to last year (2014–2018), Subban played a top role on both the Canadiens’s and Preds’s PK units: Each team’s PK finished 7th, 12th, 15th, and 6th, respectively, and in the two years a Subban team finished outside the top 10, Subban had missed at least 14 games. Neither Saad nor Gus have anything close to his pedigree.

At this point, it’s probably not a bad idea to talk about cap implications, because that could matter.

With this trade offer, the Preds would free up $1.8 million in cap space, giving them just about $9 million to play with (according to CapFriendly). Maybe they use that money to add another scoring threat in, like, Jeff Skinner, I don’t know. Fuck Nashville, I’m not doing this for them.

The point is: If Nashville truly believes it’s Subban’s fault they got knocked out so early and would consider trading him for it, Gus and Saad both provide as much or more offense than they currently have for less money. Nashville can then use that additional money to re-sign Josi or sign Duchene or Ferland or whichever other good ol’ boy they think is the missing piece but obviously isn’t. Plus, Poile might be getting itchy feet, as his team hasn’t yet won the Cup all of its entitled, illiterate, hillbilly, raising-banners-for-nothing-that-matters fans have been stealing college chants about, such is the depth of that pool of cleverness. He can MAKE A MOVE and trade his misidentified scapegoat in one fell swoop.

While Saad and Gus would be good adds for Nashville in the contexts of last year; Nashville’s need for more scoring from their forwards; and their need to replace the defensive offense Subban provides; P.K. Subban is a legitimate star who can pull the receipts out of any one of his agonizingly fashionable outfits as proof. That’s where you’d hope the #43 pick pushes this offer over the top.

I had wanted to use the #3 overall pick in this peyote-driven fantasy. As much as I love Subban (fuck, I’m offering SAAD for Christ’s sake), giving up 100-plus points AND a decent lottery ticket is probably feeling my oats a tad too much. Maybe you talk #3 if it’s an either/or with Saad and Gus, but that’s gonna complicate things more than I’m willing to get into. So you offer the #43. If they say no to that, or if they said, “No, we’d rather have Boqvist,” fine, I don’t fucking care, you can have him.

Because remember, you’re getting P.K. Subban, a proven two-way D-man who can play well on special teams. Boqvist doesn’t project to do that, and even if he ever became that, the Core will be long dead by then (or retired or whatever it is hockey players do when they’re done playing). And by all indications, the goal is to make one last run at it with this Core, specifically, Kane and Toews.

So again, the point of this trade is to shore up the defense and improve the PK, with the overarching goal of making one more run at a Cup with the Core. If the price is right, Subban might be the missing piece.

I’ve Made It This Far. What’s It Look Like?

What do the Hawks look like if something like this goes through? Let’s start by using the current roster after the trade.

DeBrincat–Strome–Kane

Kabulik–Toews–Kahun

Perlini–Kampf–Sikura

Caggiula–Anisimov–Wedin

Hayden

Murphy–Subban

Keith–Jokiharju

Boqvist/Beaudin–Koekkoek/Seabrook (Kill me)

Crow

Delia

That top four on the backend starts looking a lot better. Subban also gets Seabrook off the PK, which is an absolute must after last year’s trainwreck. You can mix and match Murphy and Harju, Subban and Keith. Having Subban back there solves a lot of defensive and PK problems. Subban also knows how to move the puck, which the Hawks have missed as Keith has aged.

This line up as you see it makes a few assumptions. First, I’m assuming that the Hawks re-sign the entire third line at $1 million per: Each of Perlini, Kampf, and Sikura is an RFA this year. This is purely a guess at what they’ll get. I’m also guessing that Kabulik brings a $2 million cap hit, because I don’t know what his contract actually looks like.

With these assumptions, the Hawks still have $11–12 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly. That’s probably not enough to both sign a top-six forward this year AND re-sign DeBrincat/Strome next year, unless you find someone willing to take Anisimov’s contract. This also asks a lot of Dominik Kabulik, but slotting him with someone he knows (Kahun) and someone he can probably trust (Toews) is about as soft a landing as you can get. It ALSO doesn’t consider what the Hawks will do about Crawford, who is a UFA after next year.

P.K. Subban would solve a ton of problems the Hawks have. He’d give them the second-best shot (after Karlsson) of shoring up the Hawks’s woeful blue line (and he might be a safer bet than Karlsson anyway). He’d keep this Core’s window open just a little bit longer.

If the Hawks could get him for Saad, Gus, and the #43 or a prospect like Boqvist, I’m pulling the trigger on that every day. For P.K. Subban, the whole package is more than worth it.

If the goal is to make one more run at a Cup with the Core, Subban can help. We’d just need Dave Poile—the winningest GM in NHL history, except in the one game that matters—to prove what a huge fucking genius he is one more time.

Stats from hockey-reference.com and NaturalStatTrick. Cap shit from CapFriendly’s Armchair GM tool.

Everything Else

You Were So In With The Out Crowd – Stanley Cup Final Preview: Barf Barf Barf

By Sam Fels 1485 0

vs.

SCHEDULE

Game 1 in Boston Monday, 7pm

Game 2 in Boston Wednesday, 7pm

Game 3 in St. Louis Saturday, June 1st, 7pm

Game 4 in St. Louis Monday, June 3rd, 7pm

Let’s get through this together. It’s the Layoff vs. The Momentum, and it’s going to be utter torture for pretty much everyone outside the two cities involved. Still, I’m of the opinion it won’t last very long, but I haven’t been very good at this all spring so you’re going to blame me when this goes balls-up anyway.

Goalies: The big question here is if the 11 days off for Tuukka Rask is going to cost him any sharpness in what has been one of the best springs a goalie has put up in a long while. The Knights last year won the West Final in five games, had a fair amount of time off, and then Fleury was the biggest reason they got pantsed in the Final (and he’ll be the biggest reason they never get back there. Good times). Rask comes into this one with a .942, which if he were to carry out would be even better that Tim Thomas‘s Tour-de-Stupid of 2011. It’s the best mark of any goalie to get to the conference final at least since Quick’s .946 in 2012. The only marks recently that have been better for a conference final appearance or better have been Giguere’s Conn Smythe campaign in ’03, Smith’s 2012 (get fucked), and Hiller in ’09. Strangely, only Quick’s won the Cup, but here we are. If Rask remains at this level, then you don’t have to worry. He looked so in control in Carolina when the Bruins needed him, so it’s not like he’s been hanging on an edge to do this.

Jordan Binnington has been fine. Really, that’s it. He didn’t have to do much once the Sharks basically disintegrated. He was very good in Game 4, which is about the last time the Blues needed him to be. He faced only 21 shots in Game 5 and 26 in Game 6, and one would think the Bruins will require him to do more than that. Binnington has only made over 30 saves twice in 19 playoff games, but the Blues haven’t really required it. They will require a goalie win or two in this series, but it’s still not a sure thing that Binnington will provide it.

Defense: As they pile us off to the rubber room in the next week or two, they’ll do so while we’re muttering if not screaming about how neither of these blue lines is any good. So let’s narrow the focus. The Blues have to figure out who takes the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak assignment, and I still don’t believe they have anyone to do it. But I didn’t think they had anyone to take the Sharks top line either. Still, this is the best line in hockey, and the Canes couldn’t do much about it and they have twice the defense. I assume the Blues will do everything they can to get Pietrangelo out there, but he doesn’t have the mobility to deal with this. I don’t know how teams haven’t been able to harvest the organs of Parayko and Edmundson, but the Bruins aren’t really all that deep either. Krejci is good, and DeBrusk has played well, but they’ve rotated left-wingers. Still, the Bruins didn’t get this far without depth scoring, and that shouldn’t stop against the murder of idiots the Blues are trotting out there.

The Bruins aren’t an impressive group either. Chara and McAvoy take the hard shifts, and metrically they’ve come up in the red. Goals-wise though, which is how they still measure the damn thing, they’re both over 65%. Krug and Carlo have been much better metrically, and they’ll have the easier time against Sundqvist’s or Bozak’s crew here. Grzelcyk has actually been sneaky good, and not getting sheltered starts to be so, but he’s the one d-man whom the Bruins can’t buy a goal when he’s on the ice. They could use a market correction here.

Forwards: The Blues have gotten incredible work from ROR, Tarasenko, and Perron, even when Tarasenko couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean at even-strength. Schenn-Schwartz-Sundqvist certainly matched or exceeded them against the Sharks, and Schenn came close to sending Pierre McGuire into a coma. Bozak, Thomas, and Maroon have chipped in with a couple big goals, and if the Blues have any advantage in this series it’s here as the Bruins don’t really go three lines deep.

We’ve already been over the best line in hockey, and given the usual IQ of the Blues they’ll get looks on the power play where they’ve been death pretty much throughout. That with Rask alone is probably enough. Coyle and Johansson have chipped in here or there, but mostly the Bruins have ridden what they get from the top unit and a little more from Krejci’s line. If the Blues find a way to stop the top line, or even keep them somewhat contained, the Bruins could be in a quandary. Good thing they won’t.

Prediction: I’m not even going to pretend to be unbiased here, so I’m going to say only what I will allow myself to say. The Blues are too stupid to not put the Bruins on the power play a good number of times. Binnington is not up to turning away repeated looks for Bergeron, Pasta, and Da Noid on the man-advantage. Rask might not be able to maintain this .942 after this break, but he probably doesn’t have to. Even .930 almost certainly gets it done.

Yeah, Binnington could go off. We don’t know enough about him to say he won’t. Tarasenko could get hot. The Blues slightly better depth at forward could matter here if the Bruins top line doesn’t keep causing gas explosions everywhere. The 11 days might matter more than we think.

But I don’t see it. Get it over with. Bruins in five.