Hockey

Game #40 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Spotlight: You Don’t Know What It Is, Do You Mr. Jones?

By Sam Fels 1217 0

It’s still stunning to see that Seth Jones is 25 years old. It feels like forever ago he was anchoring a US World Junior win in 2013, and maybe that’s because seven years can be forever. The following spring he was the consensus #1 pick, but somehow slipped to 4th for Nashville (though one would have to say that MacKinnon and Barkov going ahead of him didn’t work out badly for the Avs and Panthers, respectively. Drouin third, however….)

Two seasons later Jones was terrorizing the Hawks in the first round. You forget it now, given how the rest of those playoffs went, but if Pekka Rinne had not been facing the wrong way most of the series the Hawks very well might have gone home at the first hurdle. And Jones was magnificent, with four points in four games and some utterly dominant games. The fear was that Brandon Saad would be running into Jones for a decade or more six times or more a year. Of course, within a couple months, they’d be teammates the following season.

And Jones has been good to excellent his entire stay in Columbus. He formed a definitive #1 pairing with Zach Werenski that anchored the Jackets to three straight playoff appearances, the first time the organization had ever managed that. Aside from Sergei Bobrovsky, you’d have to say those two are the main reasons for it, given the lack of much the Jackets have ever had at forward.

Still, the thought a few years ago was that Jones would contend for a few Norris Trophies and have a decent chance at winning one. He’s only come close once, two years ago when he just missed out on being a finalist. And there’s still time. The next few years are the prime window for a player, and one where we’ve seen Victor Hedman or Drew Doughty break through. Maybe the time is coming for Jones.

Yet it still feels like there was another level Jones was going to get to that he hasn’t yet. He doesn’t have a 60-point season. He doesn’t have a truly dominant metric season, or really one that rises too much above what his team has done as a whole. Given how he skates and passes, you’d think there would be one. He only has two seasons of more than 10 goals from the back, and he’s got a more than acceptable shot. You rarely watch a Jackets game and notice Jones simply taking it over, and more just look at the stat sheet after and see what he’d done.

Is that what’s kept the Jackets from ever really being among the contenders? That’s probably unfair. A lack of true top scoring until Panarin was joined by Matt Duchene last year feels like the main culprit. Maybe some defensive depth. You can win with Jones on the top pairing, you would just need more help than they’ve gotten.

Which puts the Jackets at a weird nexus. Just how long do they think it’s going to take to be good again? And who are they building that team around? Pierre-Luc Dubois is on that list. Werenski too. Possibly Alex Wennberg. Maybe Oliver Bjorkstrand, but that’s short of anything.

Jones will have two years left on his deal after this season, and as we know around here you need to cash in big pieces when yo have them if you’re going to start over. Are the Jackets starting over? It’s got to be on the table. Jones’s trade value would probably never be higher than at this upcoming draft, which could land the Jackets a few high prospects/picks or more. It should. Could you start over with that?

The Jackets almost certainly will never consider it, but they have no bigger piece to try and get more spins at the wheel. Jones will be 28 when he hits unrestricted free agency. They will likely just hand him the seven or eight years at whatever rate he wants. Should they? You can see how those deals go. Will the Jackets be ready to play for real again in just two years? Can they risk losing yet another player simply walking out to find more profitable and promising pastures?

It would take some serious stones, and some serious foresight and honesty about what the Jackets actually are. But it might be the quickest route back to where they want to go.

Hockey

Game #40 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets: Hedley Lamarr’s Muggers, Buggerers, And Bushwhackers

By Sam Fels 1112 0

Nick Foligno = Still living off the one 30-goal season he put up five years ago in Ohio that he’s never come close to again. One of the many who’s thought to be 25% better than he actually is (at least) because he’s a former player’s kid. Foligno is the type who endears himself to the fanbase of a perennially unimportant team because he happened to be there for a while while they sucked. They get fooled into not seeing that he’s the exact type of player you need to upgrade from to get better. “Oh he cares so much,” or “He’s a leader” is always code for “not very good but starts a lot of scrums.”

David Savard – It only feels like he’s been a million years, and he’s not even 30 yet. We’re going to go ahead and say that any Jacket still here from the time the Hawks were in the same division sucks. Foligno, Savard…well, not Atkinson but whatever. Point remains.

Ryan Murray – This was a rumored Hawks target over the summer. He probably would have been better than Maatta…for the five minutes he’s upright. You’ll never believe this, but he’s hurt again and won’t play tonight.

Hockey

Game #39: Islanders 2, Hawks 5 — Sittin’ Plush with a Royal Flush

By Rose Rankin 1977 0

Proving once again that the Hawks can somehow beat superior teams while also losing to terrible teams, we’re picking up right where we left off before Christmas, albeit with an officially reduced roster of defensemen. This game also proves that sometimes it just comes down to which goalie is better/having a better night. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks took advantage of some weak-ass goaltending from Thomas Greiss, and honestly some of that was just luck, as pucks kept deflecting off Islanders defensemen all night but you know what? Fuck ’em. Gilbert’s goal was of the lucky variety, whereas Kubalik’s was a beautiful setup and a perfect reminder why John Quenneville has no business on the top line, and it should be Kubalik-Toews-Kane if CCYP is going to insist on breaking up DeBrincat-Strome-Kane, which seems to be the way the die is cast these days. Speaking of Top Cat, his goal was sorely needed for a guy who hasn’t scored a goal in what seems like years. Greiss got (rightly) pulled, but the Hawks had done enough damage and Robin Lehner was able to hold it down the rest of the time, despite the barrage of shots he of course had to face over the course of the game.

–From there, the Hawks just had to be good enough to hold the lead and they not only did that but they even padded it in the third with Jonathan Toews basically deciding he wanted to score, so he stole it along the boards, created an opportunity and finished the shot. Oh, and Matthew Highmore scored one too? On Semyon Varlamov. Hockey is just weird sometimes.

–Well, we’ll never see the back of Dennis Gilbert, will we? He scored his first goal (yay for you, guy), and managed to have a nice shot block on a PK in the second, and now we will never be rid of him. Nevermind that 44 CF%, right? HE SCORED A GOAL AND HAS THE GRIT AND HEART MY FRENT

–But let’s be honest, the Islanders got their first goal from a guy who’s basically their version of John Scott. Ross Johnston? WTF. However, not only did Greiss give up a goal to Dennis fucking Gilbert (not to mention the two other ones), as noted above, piece-of-shit Varlamov gave one up to Matthew fucking Highmore. Clearly not their best night, but you know what? Fuck ’em.

–I don’t love playing Strome on the wing, but at least he and Dach and DeBrincat are a line of talented young players so it sort of makes sense? They had a 50 CF% and a total of 8 shots, so this could very well be a workable line. Personally I’d rather see Strome and Dach centering lines so we have, ya know, a total of four centers when you add Kampf on the fourth line, but at least this isn’t offensive to the eyes, if it is still offensive to our sense of logic.

–The Hawks gave up 40 shots, which is still way too many. Lehner was up to the task so here we are, but it’s still not good. They also were underwater in possession through the first two periods (49 and 43 CF%, respectively). So number-wise they really shouldn’t have won, but you know what? Fuck ’em.

–The broadcast did their duty in singing the praises of Brent Seabrook and talking about what a “warrior” he is for playing through these injuries and whatta guy and whatta teammate and it was all unnecessary but not surprising at all. Of course Seabrook deserves nothing but admiration from this organ-I-zation and I fully expect Foley and Olczyk to be positively biased, but with all of the uncertainty around this situation I’m just tired of hearing the paeans.

As noted, the underlying numbers are still worrying, but the Hawks needed to come out after the ass-waxing earlier this week and play decently, and they did that. It was decent enough, at least. Onward and upward…

Hockey

Game #39 – Islanders vs. Hawks Spotlight: Trotz-ky And Korn-ucopia

By Sam Fels 1437 0

It’s a pretty easy narrative to create around Barry Trotz. He shows up to your team, you become very hard to beat, he gets results, but there’s a limit to it. And there’s an even stricter limit on the entertainment value of your team. The former limit got blown apart with the Capitals’ Cup win two years ago. But then the Caps perhaps didn’t think that much of it, or Trotz’s part in it to be more specific, opting to let Trotz walk to the Islanders right afterward.

The idea has always been that Trotz will make you defensively solid, and with that base you can only ever be so bad and it’s not that hard to be good. But…is that really what’s happening? Let’s look.

In Trotz’s two seasons on The Island/Brooklyn, the Islanders have only been a middling to ok defensive team. They’re 18th in attempts against over these two campaigns, 10th in shots-against, 12th in xGA against. They are third in scoring-chances against, so they limit those well. But what they do lead in by some margin is save-percentage, at .935 at even-strength over this season and a half. So that’s what they do exceedingly well.

In Trotz’s last two seasons in Washington, the Caps were 8th in attempts-against, seventh in shots-against, but 19th in xGA against and 20th in scoring chances against. But they were 3rd in save-percentage, at .930. Trotz’s first two seasons in DC, which saw a couple of 100-point seasons and a 120-point season, are a slightly different story: 13th in attempts-against, fifth in shots-against,  fifth in xGA, 15th in scoring chances-against, but 15th in save-percentage.

When Trotz washed out of Nashville with two playoff-less campaigns, these rankings stayed just about the same except they had one of the worst save-percentages in the league thanks to Ol’ Shit Hip’s meandering ways at the time. So Trotz does construct defensively sound teams, just not dominating ones. It’s the goalies who seem to thrive. But is that on Trotz or his goalie coach Mitch Korn, who follows him everywhere?

Braden Holtby was good before Trotz and Korn arrived, with a couple of .920 seasons. He became a Vezina winner with them. When he faltered, Philip Grubauer had his best season which earned him a trade to be Colorado’s starter. Tomas Greiss had one .920 season before Trotz and Korn showed up. He now is working on his second consecutive with a Jennings Trophy in the bag. Robin Lehner had flashed before in Ottawa and Buffalo, but then went .930 last year. Semyon Varlamov nearly won a Vezina in Colorado but went up and down with each passing season. He’s at .919 now along with Greiss as the Islanders haven’t really missed Lehner at all.

So is it Korn or Trotz that you’re hiring? Certainly Rinne rebounded post-Trotz, Lehner is doing just fine, and Grubauer is chugging along. Maybe the lessons they learned under Korn stick forever. And if they’re a package deal and they get these results, certainly Trotz and Korn are worth having around.

And it’s unlikely we’ll ever truly know, and Korn isn’t going to go work for someone else. But someone should probably throw a bucket of money at him to be their goalie coach, just like a prized pitching coach. Because goaltending is just as important as pitching, is it not?

Hockey

Game #39 – Islanders vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1271 0

Barry Trotz – No question he’s effective, but good lord is it dull. Trotz won’t care, he’s got a ring and a series of teams that have overachieved throughout his career. But in a league trying to be a souped up as possible and needs all the juice it can get, here comes Trotz to throw a wrench. Perfect that he’s now working for…

Lou Lamoriello – Old hockey men love to talk about how much they love hockey players and how they’re just different than everyone else (yeah, they’re dumber), but in reality they hate them. No better example than ol’ Lou, whose Devils first nearly killed the sport and also were a prime precedent for other organizations to see players as interchangeable parts as long as the system was sound. Lou hates paying anyone, doesn’t think anyone should get paid, and we doubt he could tell you half the names of his players. They’re merely worker bees to him, and it’s no coincidence that all his teams were torture to watch. Including what should have been the high-flying Leafs.

Matt Martin – He’s not fitting our usual narrative at all, because he doesn’t have a penalty minute all season. He’s supposed to be nothing more than a broken Imperial Walker, and now he doesn’t even really destroy anything. All he does is look like Jacob deGrom.

Hockey

Game #39 – Islanders vs. Hawks: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1111 0

Islanders

Notes: It might look a little different on the bottom six. Komarov has missed the last couple, so Ross Johnston could slot in there as well. Even Andrew Ladd was up last game from Bridgeport (yep, that’s where he is now) as well…Greiss started the last one and it was a loss so Varlamov figures to get this one…Scott Mayfield could come in for Dobson as well…the move back to center has not done Josh Bailey many favors, as he had 71- and 56-point seasons before this on a wing with Barzal…

Hawks

Lineup: We don’t know what Quenneville is doing up there either, but we’ve given up…Kane returns to the second line to save Strome from becoming a true goth while skating with Nylander and Palook-du-jour…Lehner is going to go against his former team, because of course he is…Boqvist was full go at the morning skate but apparently can’t go tonight so Koekkoek will slot in to everyone’s delight…

Hockey

JJ Abrams Also Wrote Seabrook’s Ending

By Sam Fels 2882 0

Three surgeries. Have you ever heard of such a thing? Boy if you want cover for how you’ve fucked up the past two seasons, this is going overboard but it just about does it.

The Hawks are probably hoping that this kind of massive, physical reason for Seabrook’s play and subsequent removal from the season will stop all questions. But it doesn’t, really. It’s just that none of the answers are good, or really mean anything until they get to a final decision. Which is either somehow retirement or an LTIR’ing for all of next year as well. Otherwise…well I don’t even know how to finish that sentence, but let’s dig in the now for now.

I wouldn’t be accusing the Hawks or Seabrook of making this up. They wouldn’t announce a buffet of surgeries for him and then send him to Tupac and Biggie Island. Would they? These are obviously things he’s been dealing with.

I guess the cover story is that Seabrook had simply covered them up, played through them, and didn’t tell anyone that he was so physically broken. Except…that’s incredibly hard to believe. Even if he was as secretive as possible, everyone noticed the drop-off in his play. At some point as he was tumbling down the mountain of usefulness, you’d figure some coach would have asked, “Is everything ok? Can we check you out?” You want to believe Quenneville, who did scratch Seabrook once and both had a massive respect for each other, would have sat him down before that healthy scratch. Especially if these maladies are as impactful as the Hawks want you to believe now. You can’t make a guy go for an MRI I suppose, but you can say you’re not going to play much until we find out what’s going on. It’s harsh, but well, look what the results of not doing so were.

So the Hawks want us to believe either they’re negligent or medically incompetent. Given how they’ve handled concussions in the past and other injuries, I suppose the latter isn’t far fetched at all. But we’re not talking about some obvious play where Seabrook got hurt…in three different spots…like we are with de Haan. He clearly fell funny in Vegas, and undid his shoulder surgery. For Seabrook to have all of these hit at once, he would basically have to be in a car accident.

Instead, he’s been a car accident. These have been degenerative injuries, at least that’s what we’re supposed to conclude. His body has been breaking down. And while hockey loves itself a “warrior” story, that kind of story falls apart when a player is actively hurting the team. Which Seabrook has been doing for at least three seasons now.

Let’s rewind here. Say the Hawks opt for this with Seabrook last year, when these conditions must have been making some sort of impact on his play (at least, that’s what we’re supposed to believe). Now you could have had Jokiharju here the whole season, really see what you have, and perhaps not become so disenchanted with him that you traded him for a seat-filler (sorry Feather, it’s what he is). That’s just one example.

If, somehow, Seabrook had kept all of this a secret and didn’t start wincing until he got into the car to go home from the arena, well he’s certainly got an otherworldly pain threshold, but that’s also negligent on his part. Playing through injury and pain is a given in most every sport, but when it comes to affecting your game and team, that’s a problem. We know Seabrook is the proudest of the proud and would never admit to anything wrong with him, or at least not in a way that affected his play, but there’s also a hint when you start to get scratched and demoted down the lineup.

You’d think the team would want to use his physical condition as a cover for his play, as they and he have been getting slaughtered in the press and among the fanbase for quite a while now. You’d think you might want to protect him a bit, given that he has seemingly given just about everything to the team.

And still, we’re less than two months between “I can help a team somewhere” after a scratch to “My body is now made of saltines.” We’re fivemonths between him telling Mark Lazerus at the convention “I’m going to shove it up everyone’s ass” to “I can’t move without something sounding like tin foil being crinkled.” That seems like a pretty short window to go from totally healthy to possibly finished forever.

Perhaps the Hawks and Seabrook have known about all this for a while, and it limited all their options. Even with eating half of his salary, if the Hawks could have found a taker there would have been serious trouble if he’d showed up to a new team with one shoulder and two hips turning into chowder. Maybe the only solution was to stick around, and if he’s sticking around they just didn’t feel they could fridge him until it became obvious there was no other solution.

I guess that’s where we’re at, but that means the Hawks knew about this for a while and probably should have done this a while ago. Like before they moved Jokiharju, who would hardly be a savior but would improve what you have and also give you further evaluation time on your future.

Where it goes from here, you can probably see. There is little to no chance Seabrook can rehab back from three surgeries, including on both hips which are only somewhat vital to a hockey player, and even be what he’s been lately and that’s not good enough. I’m sure the Hawks will let him try, and kind of pray it becomes clear to even Seabrook he has to retire. They can’t make him, obviously.

What it means for this year and all the LTIR space…well it’s not much really. The Hawks would only spill heavily into that if they were “going for it,” which this team absolutely should not do. I’ve seen the idea that they should take on bad contracts to get more picks and prospects if possible, but they can’t really do that either. A) they have serious cap problem next year thanks to this past wonderfully genius summer, so they can’t take on long-term bad paper and that limits what they can get for just taking on a few months of it and B) we’ve seen with Hossa that teams don’t ever want to use LTIR in the summer, as it limits flexibility in-season.

Even buyouts of Maatta and Shaw doesn’t open up enough space, you would think, to keep Strome, Kubalik, and one of the goalies. God, this just gets better and better. Watch this team have to be forced to trade Connor Murphy merely to open up cap space to continue to run in place.

Maybe there’s a thought that seeing one of the “Core Five” dispatched to the land of wind and ghosts will get the other four to contemplate their future. Maybe now everyone realizes the Hawks completely borked this “rebuild on the fly” and Keith and Kane would reconsider playing elsewhere to avoid a total teardown, such as it would be with them still around. You could still get things for them. You say Kane’s contract is immovable but any team that seriously considered trading for Taylor Hall and extending him was looking at something bigger than Kane’s cap number. It’s possible, if not likely.

It’s a mess, and while the Hawks have removed the mess from the ice at least, they’re hardly out of it altogether.