Football

Signal Caller Spotlight – Aaron Rodgers: This is what’s it’s like to win the lottery

By Wes French 1611 0

1991, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers.

1991 is the last year the Green Bay Packers had to worry about who might start at Quarterback.

1991 is the last time Chicago fans had anything on Green Bay. It’s been misery since.

Aaron Rodgers (against what have to be wildly absurd odds considering what you see when you scan this hellscape for capable, reliable, nearly indestructible, nevermind no-doubt HOF QBs) extended this misery that started almost three decades ago. Green Bay lucked into Brett Favre and nearly 15 years of his wizardry/bullshit and then hit the jackpot again when Rodgers slid into their lap and became the best QB of this generation. Fight me, all of Boston.

Rodgers, now 35 (!!), isn’t really showing his age. 2019 marks his 15th season and 12th straight as leader of the Pack. He’s coming off a subpar season in record only, as you’d assume throwing for 4,442 yards (2nd best of his career), 25 TDs and only TWO INTs (career low) would get you better than 6-9-1, but that gives a better idea of his surrounding cast of late. The season was basically Rodgers vs. his former Head Coach Mike McCarthy, or the guy that kept trying to get Rodgers killed the last 2-3 years. Rodgers entered 2018 coming off his shortest and worst season in his career, an injury shortened campaign that saw him start only seven games, a product of his garbage offensive line and McCarthy’s aforementioned affinity for putting his meal ticket in the worst situations possible at all times.

Enter Matt LaFleur, Green Bay’s dive into the pool of Sean McVay disciples/clones. LaFleur could barely be described as Rodger’s senior at just 39 himself, and honestly I don’t think most NFL fans know anything about him outside of he’s now the HC of the Packers. This feels a bit like an odd sort of experiment for Green Bay. LaFleur has nothing in the way of a resume, at least not one you’d think would get him the top job for a team trying to get what they can out of the last few years of Aaron Rodgers. This could be the team giving in a bit to their mega star, and trying to catch HC lightning in a bottle at the same time. LaFleur learns from Rodgers on the job and plays 1b to his QB1. This would actually be a pretty interesting and possibly successful situation….but this is the NFL. This is Green Bay thinking they’re getting the next young genius, but will he be smart enough to stay out of his own way?

Rodgers sure hopes so, and the blueprint is really laid out for him. McCarthy’s play calling, while clearly pissing off the most important man in the building, had become stale and easy to solve. Rodgers gets a lot of credit/flack for throwing the ball away so often, but that was mostly a product of the bad play calls. He’s smart enough to know when not to take a chance on a small window or when they play is just busted and he can extend his career with an incompletion. Sure, the meatheads wearing cheese might take issue with this, but doing this his entire career has helped him remain the best for so long.

Rodgers is more than just a guy living for the next play, though, and his ability to get his is something a defense can hope to contain more than stop completely. The Bears at least pose a strong threat to Rodgers and the Packers, being able to rush the quarterback effectively. McCarthy’s ineffective play-action won’t be a factor, though, and we’ll see if/how laFleur’s differ. Aaron Jones should contribute to the latter, with establishing a rushing attack now quite important to aiding Rodgers. Chuck Pagano and his league-best secondary will play a huge role as well, and they’ve got a high bar to clear after Vic Fangio’s work the last few years.

Everyone is well aware of the heartbreak from last season’s opening loss to Rodgers in Green Bay, and Rodger’s 4th quarter comeback is the type of thing he’s always capable of – three TDs in one quarter, two over 35 yards, one of which went for 75. The good news? In seven other quarters the Bears held Rodgers under 400 yards passing, picked him off once and sacked him seven times. Essentially, don’t take your foot off the gas against him on defense. Keep the pressure up and be relentless with it while trusting your coverage to make the plays that rush creates.

Khalil Mack said his favorite part about Packers week is sacking Aaron Rodgers. Chicago will need him and the rest of the defense to start the year the way everyone wants to – atop the NFC North and help Rodgers out of his gatekeeper role for this division.

 

Football

Have The Bears Always Sucked At Quarterback?

By Brian Schmitz 2181 0

Who is the greatest QB to ever play for the Chicago Bears? This is tough question because, over the last 100 years, the options have been very, very slim. So, here’s a quick exercise: I am going to provide you some QB statistics, but without the years, names, or numbers. You are the GM and you get to decide who is the best player to lead your team at the quarterback position.

Career Stats

Games     Record     Comp %     TD %     INT %     QBR     Pass Yards/Game
Player A      119            67-30       58               3.9          3.5           78.2      152.5
Player B      153            74-79       62               4.6          3.3           85.3      229.6
Player C      26              15-11        63.5            4.1          2.5           87.7       208.3
Player D      128            NA           51.8            7.9          7.6           75          114.7

Career with Bears

Games      Record     Comp %     TD %      INT %     QBR      Pass Yards/Game
Player A     119             67-30 58 3.9 3.5 78.2 152.5
Player B     153             74-79 62 4.6 3.3 85.3 229.6
Player C     26              15-11 63.5 4.1 2.5 87.7 208.3
Player D     128            NA 51.8 7.9 7.6 75 114.7

Career Stats with One Team:
Games Record Comp % TD % INT % QBR Pass Yards/Game
Player A 66 46-15 57.8 4.4 3.7 80.4 169.7
Player B 102 51-51 61.8 4.7 3.3 85.2 229.8
Player C 26 15-11 63.5 4.1 2.5 87.7 208.3
Player D 128 NA 51.8 7.9 7.6 75 114.7

Best Single Season Stats:
Games Record Comp % TD % INT % QBR Pass Yards/Game
Player A 13 11-0 56.9 4.8 3.5 97.8 184
Player B 15 6-9 64.4 4.3 2.3 92.3 243.9
Player C 14 11-3 66.6 5.5 2.8 95.4 230.2
Player D 10 NA 54.5 13.9 5.9 107.5 219.4

Based on these numbers, each player would receive the following overall adjusted performance grades: (Note that Games Played and Records are not figured into the performance grades.)
Plus Minus Overall
Player A 0 3 -3
Player B 4 2 +2
Player C 7 1 +6
Player D 4 9 -5

Unfortunately for all old school Bears fans who don’t want to look at actual statistics, Player D is none other than Sid Luckman. And before you talk about Luckman’s rushing prowess taking away from his passing yards/game, you must recognize that QBR considers rushing yards into the equation. Sid Luckman is somehow in the Hall of Fame; which is an entirely different argument. Because, really, his numbers do not exactly ooze Canton-worthy. It probably didn’t hurt that the Halas family basically ran the league back then and they got whatever they wanted. Sid Luckman in the Hall of Fame is akin to Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame – the comps are just not there. Finally, I have never seen a single down that Sid Luckman has ever played, either live or on tape. This is because I have no interest in watching him play against guys who moonlighted as professional football players when they had some off time from their jobs as stone masons and iron workers. Sid Luckman was a good player is his era, but he probably would be a D3 player in this age.

Next up on chopping black is Player A. This is going to hurt a lot of die-hard Bears fan because this guy was basically a mascot for the fans – the problem is he was never really that good. Player A is Jimmy McMahon. Never in the history of the league has a QB benefitting more from a great defense and a great running back. McMahon’s job was never to win a game, it was simply not to lose it; which reminds me of someone else; (see Player C.) Bears superfans (who are probably the worst fans in all of sports) will argue about McMahon’s record. But let’s be honest, very few NFL quarterbacks could have fucked that team up. Shit, that defense made Steve Fuller a serviceable player; which is a testament to how great they were. So sorry Jim, you made a career and a life for yourself as the starting QB of a Super Bowl champion, the problem is, you just weren’t that good.

The next QB listed currently stands as the greatest signal caller in Bears history. Player B is the guy that an entire city loved to hate, Jay Cutler. Cutler’s Bears career was perfectly average if you look at his record, but to win 51 games with the type of coaches, receivers, and linemen he had is truly remarkable. His skill set is far and away the best the Bears have ever had and rivals some of the best QBs in this current NFL era. His physical attributes were at the top of his class; but you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken shit, and entire organization was exactly that, shit. Years from now, I think Cutty will finally be appreciated for his on the field contributions. Forget what you think you know about him off the field, the guy was as athletically gifted and as tough as any quarterback to ever wear the Bears uniform…and it’s not even close.

Present day Bears fans dicks will get even harder knowing that Player C is the chosen one to resurrect the franchise. Although only a sample size, Mitch Trubisky’s numbers, when projected over an entire career, show that the Monsters offense is in pretty good hands. That said, this organization, for a plethora of reasons, has somehow never had a great QB; you’d think over the course of 100 years, you’d get lucky once or twice, however, this hasn’t occurred. The truth is this, the Bears only need Trubisky to be as good as Cutler. If Jay had this defense and this offensive scheme and these receivers and this line, the Bears would have been perennial playoff contenders, but they didn’t have this current teams supporting cast, so they were really fucking hard to watch. Regardless, if Trubisky continues to improve at the rate he is currently on, he will ultimately sign a long-term deal and the Bears will finally have a franchise quarterback.

You deserve this Bears fans, and even if Mitch ends up being more Shane Stafford than Aaron Rodgers, you will still be fortunate enough to watch him in his prime, playing for your team.

Football

Week 1 College Football Picks

By Brian Schmitz 1363 0

Looking at point spreads from a former players point of view has been decidedly profitable for me over the years. When we place a bet on a game, we are basically guessing. You have a 50% chance to be right. Thru my playing experience, I have learned to become a sports gambler and not a sports guesser. The result, through a lot of different systems I have created, has been a few dollars on the plus side for every year since I really started paying attention to the lines in 2005.
My style is not to give you my picks for the week by writing 1,000 words on why I am betting a certain game – you don’t really care how I come about my picks – you just want the damn picks and they better all be winners. I get it.

• Syracuse – This cover will be a close call, but Syracuse is coming off a reenergizing year and I don’t yet expect them to take the Liberty Flames for granted.
• Mizzu – Missouri is going to walk all over Wyoming in a low scoring affair. Somehow, the points are also going Mizzu’s way. The score wont be close, but the cover will be interesting.
• Alabama – Bama has something to prove and Duke is just good enough for the Tide to give them their full attention.
• Fresno – Fresno will take advantage of yet another overrated USC team as they continue to fool bettors with a fairly easy cover.
• Notre Dame – I know, I know. Its extremely hard to take any delight in betting with Notre Dame; however, this is money, and we are taking the Irish big.
• Mississippi St – Admittedly, I know very little about either of these teams, which makes this play my favorite because the numbers take away any bias I may have; which in this case, I don’t.  This is my top rated game of the week.

Recap:

1 Unit
o Syracuse

2 Unit
o Alabama
o Fresno

3 Unit
o Notre Dame

4 Unit
o Mississippi St

Football

Preseason Week 4 Preview – Bears vs Titans: What’re we still doing here?

By Wes French 1297 0

vs

Records: It Matters Not…but CHI 1-2 TEN 1-2

Kickoff: 7 pm

TV: Fox 32

Radio: WBBM 780 AM/105.9 FM

It was a Forward Pass: Musiccitymiracles.com

And so it ends, with a whimper.

The 2019 NFL Preseason finally comes to a close on Thursday. I say finally because the Preseason is now total trash. A lot of guys will play tonight that you’ve never heard of, and probably never will again. Hell, Chicago signed a guy to play running back so as not to hurt players they likely intend to keep on the practice squad. The Bears are slightly ahead of the curve here, but most of the league is now using the bulk of August games to work out the edges of the roster. Guaranteed starters are tasked with doing little more than going through normal game prep and then shedding the pads, if they even put them on, and yucking it up on the sidelines with coaches and their not-as-nearly-good counterparts, players doing all they can to earn a spot on the final roster the league over.

There’s been a lot of smoke in recent years about reducing the preseason to two games and adding two in the regular season. Count me in the camp that would like to see this become reality, albeit with the caveat that teams are given two bye weeks instead of simply adding a game to the already brutal slate. That wouldn’t net billionaire owners that much more money, though, so you can guess how much juice that idea has. Regardless, something’s gotta give in the near future with the preseason structure.

As for this game….well, dear reader, not a whole lot to say that my guy Tony didn’t already say yesterday.

My FFUD Bears compatriot broke down battles at every position for you and gave his best guesses at who’ll make this final 53 at Halas Hall come Saturday afternoon. Hate to say it, but I think his and FFUD Brian’s faves Taquan SMOKE Mizzell and John Franklin III are at best destined for the practice squad. That’s not a bad thing, but even with his special teams experience I just don’t see a scenario where Mizzell makes the cut, especially with Ryan Nall running roughshod his second straight August. JF3 has a slightly better shot in a muddled defensive backfield race, but I think it’s a lack of experience for him that lands him…on the practice squad.

There’s definitely going to be a tight end that wins a job tonight, and my money is on Dax Raymond. Josh Woods is really forcing the Bears hand, playing so well this summer that I don’t think they’ll be able to sneak him to Sunday and the practice squad. This makes it even more difficult to see the team keep any of JF3, Mizzell or Nall if we’re being honest. This team really feels like it’s pretty well set for about 50 or 51 spots, and with the offensive line depth hurting through injury, a few more could even be squeezed to make room for a signing once all cuts are announced.

The Titans just traded for Reggie Gilbert, formerly of Green Bay, and that would normally make one think any EDGE players need to start worrying, but the team was thin at the position due to injury so the pinch felt from this trade will likely be elsewhere. The Titans’ site linked above ponders if the team will look to deal from tackle/O-Line depth to recoup some draft capital, having just five 2020 selections after the deal. Maybe Ryan Pace comes calling for some help if the Bears suffer further losses to the current line.

Deep breaths, Chicago. Green bay in a week. Hell Yes.

Football

Bears Preseason Week 4 Preview: THE BUBBLE

By Tony Martin 1383 0

Ooooh, it’s roster cuts time! Now, I’m as bottom left politically as a person can get, so naturally I wish every single body in camp had a future playing professional football. However, until the NFL creates a legitimate minor league, roster cuts make me both sad and excited. Sure, lots of guys are ending their years or careers after Thursday’s game against Tennessee. The game itself is sure to be terrible, and I can’t imagine a worse way to spend my evening. You’ll see people you haven’t seen all preseason logging heavy minutes (bring on the skill position players who have single-digit jersey numbers!), and it will most assuredly be the worst football of the season for any fan that doesn’t routinely watch Washington or Miami play in the fall. So, before the game, I’m going to list some of the most intriguing bubble players/competitions to watch just in case you’re as desperate to kill a weeknight as I am and will be glued to the awful FOX broadcast.

Tight End: Ian Bunting, Dax Raymond, Ben Braunecker, Bradley Sowell, Jesper Horsted
Five guys, one roster spot (maybe two). Hate to say it, Bears fans, but I’m taking Braunecker to make the roster. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these dudes make the practice squad.

Running Back/Wide Receiver: (I have to combine these because I think C-Patterson screws up how we look at the numbers for this part of the depth chart):
Kerrith Whyte Jr, Taquan Mizzell, Marvin Hall, Javon Wims, Riley Ridley, Ryan Nall.
I think Ryan Nall, Smoke Mizzell, and Marvin Hall all fail to make the team. Prove me wrong, Smoke!

Cornerback: Clifton Duck, John Franklin III, Kevin Toliver II, Michael Joseph, Stephen Denmark
I think there’s a chance to find our biggest surprises in terms of roster moves on defense, since who knows how Chuck Pagano wants his DBs to look/play like. We do know they will have to be versatile, since he asks his CBs to shadow receivers instead of play one side of the field like they would in Vic Fangio’s old scheme. If I was a betting man (I am), I’d expect to see Toliver make the 53, Denmark get stashed on the practice squad or PUP list, and what the hell, PUT JF3 ON THIS ROSTER!

Outside Linebacker: James Vaughters, Isaiah Irving, Kylie Fitts
To be honest, I don’t think the Bears will give up on any of their draft picks, even if it means cutting Vaughters. I’d like to see him make the team, and while he very well could, if he doesn’t he will for sure be on another team’s 53.

Inside Linebacker: Josh Woods, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mathieu Betts
Josh Woods makes this team, y’all. He has been damn near unstoppable this preseason and has a nose for the ball. I can see him being a quality special teams coverage guy, and you can never have enough of those.

So, that’s about what I got in terms of what I’m looking for in the Tennessee game on Thursday. I’m honestly just looking to see who I can envision covering punts and kickoffs, because all the bubble guys that suit up on Sundays this fall will be there because they can play all four phases of special teams.

Okay, I’m not telling the whole truth. I’m also seeing who I should take in my XFL dynasty fantasy draft too. If you say Tanner Gentry I swear to god I will make you watch Tommie Harris film for 24 hours straight and write an essay titled “What Could Have Been.”

Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Preseason Week 3 Thoughts

By Sam Fels 1174 0

That time again, when our Bears three-legged race gets together to share thoughts. We’re almost getting real now. 

So if we can ignore the other sideline for a minute, what did we glean from the Bears in Indianapolis? Or is it just waiting for Sept. 5 now?

Tony Martin: The tight end situation after Burton is a nightmare and I don’t even wanna think about it, and the Bears backup offensive line has problems, outside of UDFA Alex Bars who I think makes this team.

… I was saying Boo-Urns
Brian Schmitz: The only thing I learned is that Bears have found their kicker. Pineiro was good from 58; which was all I needed to see. As I’ve said earlier, this preseason isn’t really preseason for the kickers. The pressure to make kicks, much less make the team doesn’t lessen any more because the games don’t count. Pineiro stepped up big time last night and an entire city made a collective sigh. 
Wes French: “It was a really good day for him.”

Eddy Piñeiro has to be full of confidence after his perfect night, with that quote from coach Nagy the cherry on top. He nailed a 58 yarder dead center and, baring some horrific performance or injury at Soldier on Thursday, he’s won this job. 
Some negatives…backup Tackle is a problem area area between injuries and inconsistent play. There may be hope in depth guard Alex Bars – he stepped in and played better than the rest of the actual Tackles trying to make the team and versatility play in the League. He can’t backup two spots if it comes to that, though.
Brian, JF3 didn’t do you and your fan club any favors this week.
Brian: JF3 should have also retired at halftime.
I also feel like it is also important to roll into the regular season coming off a win. It doesn’t mean much, but having that slight uptick in confidence and energy does help, even if just a little.  
Tony: I’m interested in who makes the bottom of the 53 as a WR and CB. I feel like the safety spots are locked up, but does Clifton Duck make the team? FFUD favorite JF3? DOES MY DUDE SMOKE MIZZELL GET IN?!?

…who am I kidding, I miss Josh Bellamy.
Editor’s note: No one misses Josh Bellamy.
Tony: Except for Matt Barkley, amirite?
Football

Have the Bears Found Their Kicker?

By Wes French 2016 0

And then there was one.

Eddy Piñeiro is the lone kicker remaining from the Bears extensive offseason search to replace ol’ double-doink, Cody Parkey. Steady Eddy won the right to kick sans competition about as much as the recently cut Elliot “J” Fry lost the job, so sure. Congrats.

But the recent damning article by SI’s Kalyn Kahler about the brief history of this unending quest tells us Eddy shouldn’t get too comfortable. When you have NFL folks quoted as saying that Cody Parkey is easily better than anyone they’ve brought in, Piñeiro included, you best watch your back. You can read the article for the rest of the behind the scenes of what any sane person knew was a batshit circus of a competition; it’s worth your time. You’ll also learn that most of this shit show is probably for nothing, since kicking is based solely on in game results, which no one can tell until September 5th.

But I’m not here to rehash the last few months and, assuming this is not at all over, I want to take a look at the new crop of kickers our pal Eddy is now up against: THE LEAGUE.

The Field – Joey Slye: Best of the rest, but at what cost?

True, the Bears already spent some draft capital on the kicker currently on the team, but he hasn’t made one longer than 47 in a fake games and Slye Stallone here has banged in two from 54+, one of which fans at Soldier got to see in person. He’s a perfect 5-5 on FG attempts and 2/2 on XP. Ryan Pace failed to trade for Kaare Vedvik last week, losing to the rival Vikings because they stumped up to an unconditional 5th rounder. Pace might have to go back to the draft well for Slye instead, as there at plenty others, like the Jets and Cowboys, that have far from certainty at the position.

Slye hasn’t exactly shown a proven record outside of this preseason: Slye was undrafted in 2018, then bounced around from the Bucs to the Browns to out of football to the Giants to summer vacation to the Giants again and eventually landing in Carolina, where he was signed to keep a spot warm until Graham Gano was healthy enough to reclaim his job. Slye has a pretty great backstory of battling adversity and working to achieve his NFL goals in the name of his late brother. He’d hardly be difficult to root for, lack of results be damned. And with a nickname like “Swole”, he’s already earned the hearts of meatball fans without pulling on the GHS armband.

Slye can boast that he’s Virginia Tech’s all-time leading scorer, though. And there are those long makes and impressive ability to simply make the kicks in games. You have to wonder how this guy wasn’t one of the billion legs brought in for a look already, but here we are. It might take a late conditional pick, but Slye passes the eye test which is about all that matters in kicking. The Bears can ill afford to wait it out and hope they can sign him at final cuts, but I also think if they were interested Pace has shown he’ll spend to go get his guy.

A few other notables to watch the next two weeks….

  • Matthew Wright is unlikely to boot incumbent Chris Boswell from his job in Pittsburgh, but the 2019 UDFA is 2/2 from over 40 with a pair of XP as well. Plus, kicking in Heinz is as a good a comparable as any outdoor stadium in the league.
  • Tristan Vizcaino is 2/3 on FGA through two games, going 1/2 from 40+ and nailing a 51 yarder. He  probably won’t win the job over Randy Bullock in Cincinnati. If Piñeiro fails to impress further he might get a call from Pace around Labor Day.
  • Veterans Matt Bryant, Mike Nugent and Kai Forbath all remain unsigned as we approach kickoff in week 1. Bryant may well be done at 41 and isn’t likely to push off retirement to kick in Chicago in December. Nugent and Forbath are probably better than the circus from mini camp, but it’d be unlikely the Bears dial any of them up over anyone already kicking the last month-plus.

NFC North Kicker Thunderdome….

  • Sam Ficken and Mason Crosby are having their own battle up in Green Bay, who were also reportedly in on Vedvik. Ficken and Crosby are both 1/1 on FGA (41/43, respectively), so not much to show yet. Both are perfect on XP as well, so the loser here might not have to wait long for new work if it’s more a coin flip situation than one kicks his was out of town.
  • Minnesota made their intentions clear when they sent a 5th round pick to Baltimore for Kaare Vedvik – he’s pretty much assured to be the guy. That leaves veteran Dan Bailey in limbo, a spot he’s familiar with after a surprise cut from his long time job in Dallas ahead of the 2018 campaign. Bailey is also struggling mightily this preseason, a year after going only 21-28 in FGA for the Vikings. Hard pass if I’m Ryan Pace, but who knows with the way this thing has gone so far.

 

 

Football

Denver? The Sunshine State? Gorgeous!

By Brian Schmitz 1335 0

Regardless of how great the 2019 Bears defense is supposed to be, the success of the team will ultimately rely on the play of third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky. This could be a problem if Trubisky’s advanced metrics from the 2018 season are any indication of future performance. To be clear, I am convinced #10 for the Bears will be markedly better this season, however, an advanced look into his stats for the 2018 season do not paint the prettiest picture for an organization that has never truly had an elite passer under center.

So, before you make your Super Bowl reservations, I took a deep dive inside some numbers from last season that go way beyond your layman QB stats:

Deep Ball Accuracy

  • Despite ranking #8 in all of the NFL in Deep Ball Attempts, Trubisky ranked #29 in Deep Ball Completion rate at 29.6%. This number shows Matt Nagy’s confidence in his QB and his own system, the problem is that the coaches’ confidence is not being rewarded by the signal caller. Deep balls are most often first read throws, which further makes this statistic problematic. I don’t anticipate the number on attempts changing much this season, so the accuracy on these throws must be better if the Bears are to return to the playoffs and make a deep run.

True Passer Rating

  • This rating is essentially a QBR without unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Trubisky ranked #26 last season in True Passer Rating – ouch. The vast difference in Trubisky’s QBR (72.8) vs. True Passer Rating (84.3) is mostly related to the amount of passes dropped by his receivers, a number in which the Bear pass catching corps was the 5th best in the league. For years, people would blame Jay Cutler’s lack of success on his lack of talented pass catchers – which was a fair point – the same cannot be said for Mitch.

True Completion Percentage

  • The Bears QB was ranked 25th league-wide with a True Completion Percentage of 68.5%. Much like the True Passer Rating above, this advanced stat shows you just how good the Bears receivers were last year and just where Trubisky really ranked amongst the entire league.

Accuracy Rating

  • This stat grades a QB’s accuracy for each throw on a scale of 1-4. Mitch Trubisky ranked #17 overall in this category with a rating of 2.9. As a reference, a rating above 3.0 is considered highly accurate. As such, this is a very promising number; and one that I think will increase this year based not only on Mitch’s continued improvement, but also the health and improvement of the receiving unit and finally, the addition by subtraction of Jordan Howard.

Using the above mentioned advanced stats, as well as many, many more, two intriguing conclusions have been made:

  1. Mitch Trubisky’s career currently compares most favorably to…wait for it…Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater.
  2. Trubisky’s overall production, based on advanced metrics, places him as the equivalent of a late 4th round draft pick.

In sports, you are who your stats say you are, but I cannot believe there is any way I would want Bridgewater as the quarterback of this team instead of Trubisky. In fact, I wouldn’t even want a healthy 2015 version of Bridgewater over the Bears #10 right now.

Moreover, drafting Trubisky in the late 4th round would be the steal of the 2017 draft and probably most other drafts. Keep in mind that this projection is based only on the previous years’ stats and do not provide a career projection.

After digesting numerous advanced metrics and trying to make sense of it all, I am at the same place I was before I started, I’m just more certain now – Mitch Trubisky’s accuracy will be the key to a successful 2019 season for the Chicago Bears.

 

 

 

 

Football

I’m Not Here To Not Get F**ked Up

By Brian Schmitz 1429 0

As everyone knows, the nationwide attention given to the legalization of sports gaming in many states has provided yet another avenue for the NFL to increase its already robust popularity. Twitter is filled with as many “gambling gurus” as there are “models.” As a veteran gambler and former professional football player, I can tell you one thing: anyone who is charging for their gambling picks is a hack. There is no doubt that there a few guys out there who have been super successful over a long period of time. These types of guys don’t share their picks with anyone; much less whore them out on twitter. These guys have made more than enough money gambling that they certainly don’t need the “$85 Tuesday Night MAC-tion Play of the Year!!!”

During this year’s NCAA and NFL seasons, I will be giving out my picks for free. Of course, I can’t make any promises on winnings, and frankly, I don’t really care if you win or not, but I can share with you that I have never had a gambling season under 53%. I think I can help you make some money, but so does Eddie O with his horse(shit) picks and I think I’m roughly 1-73 when taking his advice on the ponies. But that’s neither here nor there.

In my previous life and a professional athlete, I learned a lot about what to expect from a team going into a game. My biggest gambling takeaways from my experiences are this:

  • Teams take on the personality of their coach.
  • Always pay attention to the previous game as well as the following week’s game.
  • If you are unsure on a pick, don’t bet it. But if you hell-bent on betting it, always take the NFL home dog.
  • If you are a trends guy, then only look at the current season. Previous years trends are for losers.
  • Never, ever bet on pre-season games.

Back in my Arena Football League playing days, I would never bet a game that I was playing in. Not because I couldn’t or didn’t want to, but because I had too much respect for my coach and my teammates. However, I would often give family and friends my insight on games and they were free to place a bet if they so choose.

Another gambling story from my playing days was when the University of North Carolina Tar Heels were playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. Our first day there, we were given a stern lecture by a Caesar’s Palace sportsbook manager about how gambling spreads are not a prediction of who was going to win the game, but a way to get two sides to bet evenly on a line. While this thinking is most likely true, the two statements are not mutually exclusive. I feel that an opening line is the truest indication of a final score. The movements in the line then account for the books to get equal action on each side.

Finally, as a gambling side note, here’s a quick story: The Las Vegas Bowl is the greatest bowl game around. You can have your Sugar and Fiesta Bowls; I’ll take playing the Las Vegas Bowl every time. I could fill pages and pages with stories from that week, but in the interest of time and to cater to our readers 2nd grade attention spans, I’ll only share one:

Every day after bowl practice, we were given per diem. This would amount to the value of all our meals and incidental expenses. Every day, without fail, you would have 100 guys take this brown per diem envelope and make a bee-line to the tables. As the entire, and mostly underage, UNC football team was playing blackjack, craps, and roulette, I saddle up to a good friend of mine (who will remain nameless) to play roulette. What I saw next is something I will never, ever forget. My man, who was an All-American and 2x Pro Bolwer, began betting on both red and black at the same time. I see this and I’m like “What the fuck are you doing? It is literally impossible for you to win!” What he said next was either the dumbest or smartest thing I’ve ever heard – to this day I’m still not sure. He looks at me with 1000% seriousness and says “Dawg, you don’t get free drinks if you’re not gambling and I’m not here to not get fucked up.”

Now, almost 20 years and 40 trips to Vegas later, I cannot walk past a roulette table and think to myself “I’m not here to not get fucked up.”

Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Preseason Week 2 Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1107 0

That time again. Our Bears wing breaks down whatever they thought was important, and wasn’t, from the Bears’ trip to New Jersey. 

What did we learn in the second preseason game?

Tony Martin: Marvin Hall does not make this team, unfortunately. If Kerrith Whyte Jr can provide 4 phase special teams play, Hall is toast since Whyte can return kicks if Patterson can’t and will have more use in the offense. I was pumped to see what Marvin Hall could bring to the team, but he’s really just mini Taylor Gabriel and with how low-accuracy Trubisky has been on his deep throws, we don’t need two pure burners on the 53.

-James Vaughters looked good, and the backup LB competition is going to be the most fun story these last few weeks of preseason.
-Do the Bears have any serviceable tight ends behind Burton? Is Burton even going to be healthy this year?
-Kyle Long is making me nervous.
Wes French: Matt Nagy is making himself the story, and it might be that he’d stupid like a fox…or John Fox is going to be super excited to rip him when this blows up in his face. 

The head coach’s decision to keep his first unit out of the preseason almost completely is the new narrative for me. Teams have come to treat preseason about the same all around the league for years in the four game format, with starters playing maybe 1-2 series in game one, a quarter or so in game two, a full half+ in the game three “dress rehearsal” and then not at all in the final game. Recent years have seen more discussion about the length of preseason, if it’s necessary, if the risk of injury is worth it as men work to get up to game speed. 
To my knowledge, Nagy and Ryan Pace are the first HC/GM to use the padded practices (also becoming increasingly restricted) mainly on the first units and leave the preseason games to focus on the deeper aspects of the roster. There won’t be any way to tell what effect it has on those units until the season opens for real, but I have to admit I’m a fan of the process so far. More reps against tougher competition for the guys fighting for roles and roster spots will give Nagy and Pace that much more to work with when final cuts come at the end of the month. 
Maybe we’ll get the first teams for a few snaps in the penultimate game, but I say they should just lean into this exercise fully and let anyone currently “on the bubble” start next week. I want to see if Kerrith Whyte can do more than 10 yards on six carries or James Vaughters can repeat that electric performance against a very good Colts offensive line. 
Oh, and just toss Carolina a conditional pick for Joey Slye already. Fry missed his lone FG attempt, Pineiro was 2/2, but it just doesn’t feel like they believe in him. Slye is now 5/5 with two of those from over 54 yards, one of which came at Soldier Field. 
Tony: I like Nagy’s approach, not gonna lie. Keep the starters out of the preseason. Might it affect how quickly they start executing when the season begins? Possibly, but I would gladly trade a slow start in week one for the ensured total health of the starters for this team.
…Aaaaaaaand Fry got waived. Hello Canada!
Wes: Good for him.  What’re your thoughts on trading for Slye? I know they already did that for Pineiro but teams don’t just discard kickers anymore when they’ve got one. I think if there was someone worth signing off the street they’d already be here. 
Brian Schmitz: I am a firm believer that whatever the patriots do is the right thing to do, so in this case, I’m with Wes in thinking that the starters need to get a little burn in the preseason so the live bullets aren’t completely foreign to them when they line up against the pack in less than 3 weeks. 

Pat O’Donnell has had a great preseason thus far. This is important because of the subpar season Pat-O had last year. Punting is a position that is as much about confidence as it is about talent, so for a guy who may have some doubt in his mind coming it to this season, coming out and averaging over 50 per pop is a huge relief for a team that is not very good on special teams at this point. 
Sidenote: John Franklin had one of true great pass break ups these eyes have ever seen…just sayin. 
Tony: People like Slye a lot, and I can see why. Screw it, bring him in. Can’t hurt.