Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 7 Preview – Cue The Europe

By Sam Fels 1606 0

vs.

GAMETIME: 7pm Central 

TV: NBC

PISSHEADS AND CHOWDAHEADS: St. Louis Gametime, Stanley Cup Of Chowder

If it feels like this goddamn Final has gone on for two months, you’re not alone. While the added day off for travel makes sense and should have been instituted a while ago, it does add four days to the series so you go from two weeks to two and a half, and it makes a difference. Hockey on June 12th is just dumb.

Or maybe it feels like it’s been this long because it’s two teams you’d rather not see win, and we spent all that time staring into the abyss that St. Louis could actually pull this off. Those two days felt like 70. And they still could, clearly, but a Game 7 on the road doesn’t much seem in character for them. Then again, being here at all doesn’t seem in character for them, so everything we knew and built our foundations upon is rubbish. Good way to live.

So it comes to this. Analyzing one hockey game can be futile, because anything can flip it. A bad call, a missed call, a delay of game penalty, a too many men penalty, someone falling on their ass, really anything.

Also, if Tuukka Rask plays as well as he did in Game 6, it isn’t going to matter much anyway. He is the reason the Bruins traipsed to the Final, and the layoff clearly took him down a level (down was the only way for him to go), but he may have found it again.

What Blues fans will be watching intently is if Jordan Binnington is going to revert to Blues traditional goaltending after letting in Brandon Carlo’s double-play ball through him and into the net. BABIP Kung Fu Treachery can come to hockey too, people. You would imagine the Blues aren’t going to get this with a middling goalie performance as the Bruins will make the Blues work at least on the power play, and Rask isn’t going to let the bottom fall out either. You know what we’re betting on.

Again, it’s a bit silly to pinpoint one player, because any fuckwit can come up with two goals and have his name live forever. Remember Max Talbot scoring twice in a Game 7? That dude was just a live action Pepe Le Peux. Still, most will focus on the Bruins top line. If they score, the Bruins tend to win. They hadn’t really until Game 6, with Marchand pulling a Jagr and only showing up when his team was on a two-man advantage and then Pastrnak got one in the third. The narrative has been that Bergeron has been getting pushed around in this series, but I don’t know that I buy it. He’s only been in the red in both attempts and expected goals in a game in Game 5 and Game 2, so he just hasn’t gotten the rub.

You would expect Bruce Cassidy to continue to keep Bergeron’s line and the Chara-McAvoy pairing separate, mostly to keep Chara away from Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko which he simply hasn’t had the mobility to deal with. That still leaves O’Reilly’s line as the assignment, and he’s obviously been going off of late. One feels if the Blues get this, it will be from that line. If anyone else dents on either side, then it’ll be their night.

It’s hard to see the Bruins losing three straight home games. The Blues have the bigger questions in goal and on special teams, which is not where you want to be in a Game 7. But again, it’s one game, where anything stupid or inexplicable is possible. But hey, at least it will be over come 11pm or 12am, right?

Baseball

Giolito And The All-Star Game

By Sam Fels 1362 0

You may expect me to come here and shit on the All-Star Game and tell you it doesn’t matter if Lucas Giolito starts it for the American League or not. And then do various Rock impressions and references, which I’ll be doing anyway around my house because that’s how I get through the day. But that’s not what I’m here to do.

The ASG has lost some gloss to everyone, I think, but mostly that’s because of how the game is played. Everyone gets in, everyone gets on a roster after expansions and injuries and pitchers declared ineligible. The every team rule also is a bit stupid, but at least that one I understand. It wasn’t the tie in 2002 that cheapened it, it was the response to it. Not everyone needs to play in it, and keeping the best of the best on the field longer would go some way to restoring the luster of it. Then again, I totally understand those who would rather catch a flight home somewhere around the 7th inning and get a mini-break in during a very long season.

That said, the All-Star starter still carries a lot of weight, at least to me. It’s the spot that can’t get borked by some stupid fan campaign to load votes onto whoever a fanbase has decided needs to be there. It doesn’t get altered by the every team rule, because it’s just about the only spot where the best player for the first half gets his role without any bullshit. Sure, he might have to bow out if he starts on the Sunday before or whatever the rule is, but he gets the title. Those who take the mound on that Tuesday in July first, there’s something special about them. They are unquestionably the best at what they do for that season at that point.

So the question now becomes should Giolito be the AL starter in Cleveland? Yes, of course. What’re you stupid? Get outta here. I ain’t got time for this.

Ok, obviously it’s not that simple. Giolito does have the best FIP in the AL, and the third best ERA behind Jake Odorizzi and Charlie Morton. By fWAR, Giolito is the best pitcher in the league right now. According to Baseball reference, he’s behind Mike Minor, Verlander, and Matthew Boyd. So let’s just say fuck Baseball Reference, huh? (I don’t mean that. Love you, BBREF). By ERA-, which does take park effects into account, Giolito trails Odorizzi and Morton as well. When it comes to ERA, I would argue that both Odorizzi and Morton play behind significantly better defenses than Giolito does, though the Twins only have the significant advantage in the outfield.

I suppose it would be hypocritical to argue that MLB should step in, but this is a league that’s had a hard time marketing new stars and getting them into the consciousness of the casual sporting public. And Odorizzi or Morton are hardly household names. But Giolito carries more weight, as he plays in a team that’s been dormant for a while. Sure, Morton plays for a team that they need to get ANYONE to watch, and his selection it could be argued would remind people that the Rays exist. They also gave Blake Snell, deservedly, the fucking Cy Young last year and still no one cares. The Twins are the new hotness as well, so Odorizzi along with the raft of others they’ll have at the game could lead that charge.

But of the three, it feels like the selection of Giolito would be part of a start of something, a marker in a career that could go just about anywhere. This is probably as brightly as Morton or Odorizzi will burn. It would, hopefully, not be the pinnacle of Giolito’s career.

He’s going either way, and will probably get on the mound. And that will be a thrill for Sox fans as they wait for meaningful baseball again. But give him the full ride.

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target: The Ghost Bear

By Sam Fels 2178 0

We continue our look around what the Hawks might be able to pry loose via trade this summer, and our lonely eyes turn to The Iladelph. This one isn’t as clear as some others, where the Flyers aren’t actively shopping Shayne Gostisbehere. But they’re also listening, desperate for some forward help. That’s why they’ve traded for the rights to pay Kevin Hayes, who sucks, but it would be truly Flyers to get the jump on negotiations and fuck them up anyway.

So first off, would the Flyers actually part with Ghost Bear? Possibly. He’s been passed on the depth chart by Ivan Provorov, and it might soon be that Travis Sanheim does as well. They’ve been waiting for Robert Hagg and Samuel Morin forever, and there’s a couple other kids down in the system as well. It’s something of a strength to trade from for them.

And Ghost Bear has earned himself the title of a power play specialist. Your first reaction is to say that he’s just younger, more mobile Erik Gustafsson. Except that younger and more mobile is something we’ve wanted Gus to be for his entire stay here, so I’m not sure that’s anything worth complaining about.

But yes, Gostisbehere has racked up the power play points in the past, with 33 two years ago, and 23 the year before that. That doesn’t mean he’s a total nincompoop at even-strength, with 23 points this year and 32 the year before that. Ghost Bear might always be haunted by his rookie year where he put up 17 goals in just 64 games. But he shot 11% that season, which is astronomical for a defenseman and really shouldn’t be expected again.

That said, Gostisbehere’s metrics at evens are pretty good, well above the team-rate in Corsi the past three seasons and above in expected goals the past two. The caveat here is that Ghost Bear is punted in the offensive zone to start his shifts most of the time, so he should probably carry a higher rate than the team.

The drawback to Ghost Bear is that he doesn’t help out the defensive game much. And while he’s brilliantly skilled and mobile, it’s unclear if he can consistently skate or pass his team out of trouble when in his own zone. He wasn’t asked to do it a whole lot in Philly. Again, perhaps paired with a really good defensive partner you’d have a nice dynamic, but right now the only player the Hawks have that qualifies as that is Connor Murphy. It’s a nice thought, but a Ghost Bear-Murphy pairing sounds like a really nice second pairing and doesn’t solve your top of the rotation problem.

Is he gettable? Probably. Rumors have the Canadiens hot on his ass and dangling Andrew Shaw and/or Paul Byron to get him. Certainly Brandon Saad would be more than that, though if that deal straight up makes you queasy I get it. The Flyers are desperate for any kind of second line help, and Saad would definitely qualify as that. Fuck, maybe you catch the Flyers being the Flyers and convince them that Anisimov is that, especially if they can’t sign Hayes. It’s a longshot, but dumber things have happened.

Does he help? That’s a harder case to make. Again, the Hawks are fiending for mobility on the back end like no one else. This would make Renton’s withdrawal look like a cold. But Ghost Bear might be more of what they have, somewhat wayward in his own zone. If he had proved to be a carry-the-mail type, you’d be in on this 100%. But he might just be like Gustafsson, where you’ve got to get him to the offensive zone another way before his real effectiveness is apparent.

Like we’ve said about just about everyone we’ve previewed, he’s better than almost everything else the Hawks have on the roster now. But is he such an improvement? He would make Gustafsson expendable and you probably can fetch more for Gus than you give up for Ghost Bear simply due to the contract. Ghost Bear is also 26, so he may have some improving to do but he’s also not so far away from his peak that you can picture him being significantly more than he is. Again, this feels like another half-measure.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Split Two with Nationals: Eloy Hit One to Indiana, That’s All I Care About

By Adam Hess 1399 0

Game 1 – Nations 12, White Sox 1

Game 2 – Nationals 5, White Sox 7

The White Sox have kind of existed within this realm of having a good record but being a mostly bad team for a while now, and this two game set with the Nats kinda proved that to be the case even further. Now at 32-34, the Sox appear to be close to competency and at least theoretically in the Wild Card hunt, but they also split a 2-game series with a team with a worse record than them and had a -9 run differential in the process, leaving them at -55 on the season as well. So really, they aren’t that good but kinda look like they are. Anyway who cares, Eloy hit a ball to the moon.

THE BULLETS

– The White Sox had something called Odrisamer Despaigne start for them on Monday, which is a hilarious insult to everyone’s intelligence but also somehow not exaclt a bad move? Listen, if you want Dylan Cease in the majors at this point, I certainly won’t argue with you on it because I agree, but at this point the motivations are clearly not financial anymore. They have the year of control in the pocket, Super-2 is gone, so it’s not about money. They clearly think there is something developmentally that still needs to be done, and hey I am not really gonna argue with them because even if I am a fool, arms are the one area I just kinda trust the Sox on even when I don’t agree. Sam had wonderful thoughts on this yesterday as he slowly descends to becoming One Of Us. Despaigne also held up his end of the bargain in the game, and the bullpen fell apart, so it’s fine. The wins and losses mean nothing this year so if he needs to start another one, so be it.

– Yoan Moncada tweaking his back is certainly a major problem. One thing that I have just come to accept about Yoan is that he tends to milk it when he is hurt or suffering discomfort, like when he hobbled back to the dugout after scoring from second base last week only to remain in the game and have it not really be anything to worry about. But backs are a different animal. Luckily it didn’t sound too serious, and Sox have today off for him to rest, but the Sox would be wise to take it slow here and let him make sure he’s 100% before coming back. I’d prefer if that didn’t involve an IL stint, though.

– Similar to Despaigne, I was pleased with the start Manny Banuelos turned in on Tuesday. It was nothing special, but after a bad first inning he kept control and didn’t let the game blow up on him. Banuelos’ starts are really just glorified bullpen days, so him getting you through 4.2 innings is more than fine. I’m glad Ricky didn’t try to hold out on him in the when he got in trouble in the 5th to earn him the win, but I also am not convinced that wasn’t mostly because it was said glorified bullpen day. If that had been ReyLo, I bet he stays out there and the inning blows up. But it didn’t!

– Eloy hit a ball forever far. They called it 462 feet and I think that was just a moment of dyslexia and they meant 642. There is simply no way that centerfield concourse is only 60 feet behind the dead center wall. I refuse to believe it.

– As much fun as the home run was, I was more impressive with Eloy’s phenomenal walk in the first inning that preceded Wllington Castillo’s grand slam. Patrick Corbin sliders are nothing to joke about, and Eloy spit on two of them in the dirt in a two-strike count to force Corbin to beat him, and worked a walk out of it. To me, that’s far more evidence of his growth and progress at the plate this year. We knew he could hit balls into orbit, but he hadn’t proven to major league pitchers he could lay off low breaking balls. If they need to find new ways to beat him moving forward, they could be looking for a long time.

Baseball

Is There Anything To Be Salvaged With Carlos Gonzalez?

By Sam Fels 1741 0

No.

 

 

…all right fine. We can try and dig a little deeper into this, but there isn’t much point. What I find curious is that on the day the Cubs unveiled Craig Kimbrel, Theo Epstein was asked about Gonzalez and Albert Almora Jr., who has lost playing time to the former’s arrival. Theo’s quote was basically that Gonzalez was here to be a bat off the bench, and Almora needed to play.

Gonzalez has started four of the past six games. If you want to know why Joe Maddon has not received a contract extension, here’s a piece of evidence for you.

Let me present some numbers:

.169/.242/.186  .429 OPS  9.1 BB% 31.8 K%

.258/.287/.536  .823 OPS  3.8 BB*  15.4 K%

The former is Gonzalez’s numbers in May, and the latter’s are Albert Almora’s. Now, Almora’s aren’t exactly breathtaking, but they come out to an above-average offensive player, just, who plays plus defense. Gonzalez’s numbers make doves cry, and his defense really isn’t any good anymore either.

It’s been three seasons since Gonzalez was an above-average offensive player, and that’s accounting for the Coors factor. His power zapped away in 2017 and hasn’t really ever come back, though the .467 slugging off the bench would be fine. You’d take it. We all understand that in searching for a left-handed bat simply to replace Ben Zobrist and maybe take PH ABs from Daniel Descalso and his other interpretation of sadness at the plate, the options you can have for free are limited. It’s a free roll of the dice.

But you’re still going to get snake-eyes. And it’s fine for now because Kyle Schwarber has carried the outfield, and Gonzalez has cobbled together a couple hits that has fooled everyone into thinking he can still hit, which he can’t. Unless his .211 average since joining up really makes something stir in your bowels.

So I’m trying to see what the Cubs think they might be able to mine here, and my hope is that Joe Maddon is only trying to get CarGo in a rhythm before he’s reduced to simply pinch-hitting and spot-start duty. The only thing I can fathom is that the Cubs think they can get CarGo to go the opposite way more, which he actually does well but doesn’t do often. CarGo has been a pull everything guy for most of his career, settling for somewhere between 20-25% of his contact going the opposite way. CarGo has consistently run an average over .400 on balls the other way, though that might have something to do with being shifted against a lot and there being a lot of open territory there. But that’s belied somewhat by most of his contact the opposite way is still in the air, where a shift wouldn’t do much about it.

That’s about as near as I can figure, and his homer the other night, certainly a Wrigley product given where it landed, is hopefully a sign that CarGo is willing to change his approach to salvage another year or two in the majors. Beats working at Sears, as we know.

Still, it’s awfully harsh on Almora. I’m not Almora’s hugest fan–he hits way too many grounders and is slow, but this May was his first plus-month in the majors since the first half of last year thanks to an injection of power. There were still way too many grounders, over half his contact was, and maybe the Cubs have already concluded he would crash back to Earth with that. Still, May saw Almora hit the ball harder than he ever has, and his .253 BABIP in the month suggests he had to fight through fortune to produce a plus-month instead of ride the wave as he did last year.

It wouldn’t be a big deal, and it probably isn’t anyway yet, if Jason Heyward were hitting. But he’s not. So Joe Maddon is essentially tossing another outfield spot away on a hunch that isn’t going to play out, whereas Almora still allows us to be curious about what could come next. To boot, CarGo’s defense just isn’t that good in right.

I get the impression this won’t be a problem come July 1st when everyone sees CarGo is toast, but you never know with Maddon. And by then Almora might have lost all his momentum. He’s at least the devil we don’t know completely yet instead of the corpse we do.

Baseball

The White Sox Are On Message With Dylan Cease, They Just Don’t Seem To Know It

By Sam Fels 1352 0

You can certainly understand White Sox fans’ frustration. When Lucas Giolito isn’t pitching, thanks to injuries or various incompetence, having to suffer through Manny Banuelos or Ivan Nova or earlier Ervin Santana or Dylan Covey (“Dylan Arrieta” according to Fifth Feather) isn’t a great way to extend one’s lifespan. Especially with Dylan Cease sitting at Charlotte, and seemingly putting up numbers that would warrant a look. Certainly a look over the circus clowns that have toed the slab (god I love baseball terminology) for the Sox so far.

Still, if you look at what the Sox have done with their other pitching prospects, it makes perfect sense that Cease isn’t here yet. Between the Cubs and Sox systems, Cease has thrown 336 innings in the minors over parts of five seasons. How much did the others go through? Michael Kopech threw 383 innings in the minors before coming up for brief air last year. Giolito threw 367 in the Nationals system before he got a brief call to DC, and then the Sox piled on another 128 in Charlotte for him upon arriving under their tent for a total just under 500. Reynaldo Lopez had thrown 307 innings in the Nationals system as well before getting his own cameo in the Capital, and then the Sox piled on another 121 in AAA for him after his trade for a total of 428 innings in the minors. So only Kopech has thrown a similar total of innings in the minors to Cease before being called up, and that was just a shade under 50 more innings. Kopech is also now on the shelf, so take that for what it’s worth.

Scouting reports suggest that while Cease is getting the results in Charlotte, the process is still a touch wonky. He’s falling behind in counts and powering through with his fastball, which works there but definitely won’t work in the majors, especially as it gets hotter on the Southside and it returns to its normal air-traffic control disturbance. The other side is that Cease isn’t getting any luck considering the amount of ground-balls he’s giving up, and he might actually benefit from getting to pitch in front of what’s been for now at least a plus-infield defense.

Of course, every pitcher is different and no plan should work for two people. Everyone’s still guessing at this, of course.

Still, it’s a little jarring when Rick Hahn comes out and compares Cease’s promotion timetable to that of Eloy Jimenez’s, because we all know that Jimenez’s was bullshit. Jimenez was ready to be in the majors last year, and probably even pretty close to the start of the season and everyone knew it. The Sox kept him in Charlotte thanks to the CBA and getting another year of control, and guised it as the normal, “Oh he needs to work on his defense (this is left field, people),” or “We just want to make sure he’s ready.”

There are no such concerns with Cease, which makes the comparison to Jimenez pretty weird. The Sox appear to be enacting the same plan with Cease that they have with all their other pitchers, and that’s the story they could easily stick to. And fuck, even with that plan, it took Giolito a full-season and plus to become this. Lopez hasn’t become anything yet, and Kopech has his arm in ice. So maybe they’re figuring it out with the rest of us.

Hahn’s probably on the right track here, he should just avoid mentioning Jimenez when describing that track. Doesn’t really support the argument.

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target(s): Calgary Salary Flotsam

By Sam Fels 1760 0

It would seem odd that the Flames would want to detract from the strength of their team, which is their blue line. However, with $14M in cap space, and a now very expensive Garbage Son Tkachuk to re-sign, the Flames might be looking to jettison either Travis Hamonic or TJ Brodie to make room. Especially with Oliver Kylington and Rasmus Andersson both up next year and big parts of the future, if everything works out. There have been rumors the Flames are kicking the tires on what they can get for each. And because they’re looking only to get rid of money, they’re probably a little more open to just getting picks and/or prospects back and not too worried about something that can go straight on the roster.

We’ll start with TJ Brodie. Seemingly he is more of what the Hawks need than say Ryan Murray or Jacob Trouba. He has feet, can push the play, and is left-handed. Generally though he has preferred to play the right side, as he did all of last year being paired with likely Norris winner Mark Giordano.

And that’s the rub with Brodie. It’s kind of hard to know what he is because generally, he’s sucked when away from Mark Giordano and been really good with him. So yeah, his metrics from this year are pretty glittering, when he was paired with #5 all season. The season previous, when it was Dougie Hamilton with Giordano and Brodie with Hamonic, very much less glittering. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2015-2016 to find the last season Brodie had where he was above the team-rate in possession and expected goals, and wouldn’t you know it that was the last season previous to this one where he was paired with Giordano for most of it.

I hate to break this to you, but there’s no Mark Giordano here. The Hawks might think there is, they might even think that Duncan Keith is still Mark Giordano, but he’s not. Now, perhaps Keith can claw back some of his faded glory with a mobile partner who can clean up the greater amount of messes he leaves around these days, and Brodie is certainly mobile. But Brodie hasn’t responded well to doing most of the puck-carrying in the past, when paired with Hamonic or Big Money Wides, as he was in the past. Keith doesn’t really handle the puck up the ice, or at least shouldn’t, preferring to try and make plays happen at the line still (which he can’t do nearly as well but we’ve had that talk). So Brodie is an odd fit.

Hamonic is clearly a different player. Much more stationary, much more the road grater, and even more of what the Hawks probably don’t need. He had a much improved season last year in Calgary, but he still was behind the team-rate in the metrics we look at. He was paired with Noah Hanifin, who everyone agreed has a very rough season in Alberta, but Hanifin’s numbers improve away from Hamonic, so you deal with that. Hamonic’s metrics are always going to suffer because he’s been used in the defensive zone the most of any team he’s been on for the most part, and he’s not a puck-mover. Neither is Hanifin, but Brodie was supposed to be in ’17-’18 and that didn’t go well for anybody. Then again, the Flames were coached by a moron then in Glengarry Glenn Galutzan, but Hamonic has been around now for a while and we know what he is.

If you could put a left-sided puck-mover with Hamonic, it’s just crazy enough to work. Again, the Hawks might think that’s Keith, and Hamonic would be an improvement on Seabrook in that area, but that’s also a pairing asking for a ton of trouble. He’d be the perfect partner for Gusatfsson if Gus actually had feet, which he does not. He’s basically slower Connor Murphy, which the Hawks don’t need.

Still, there are appeals. One, both are on the last year of their deals and neither are very expensive. Brodie clocks in at $4.6M and Hamonic at $3.8M. Given their contact status, and age, they really wouldn’t be that expensive in a trade. Maybe a lower round pick and a non-Boqvist prospect is enough to get it done. Then you get a year to see what it looks like, if you’re not really planning on doing much this year anyway (which the Hawks still might be), and if it doesn’t work you send them on their way with the cap space in tow.

But again, these are middle of the road moves that don’t address the top of the roster which needs addressing. The Hawks don’t have the pieces that would help Brodie or Hamonic maximize their usefulness, which is now why I totally expect this to happen.

Baseball

Series Preview – Nationals vs. White Sox: Mini Discontent

By Sam Fels 1107 0

vs.

RECORDS: Nationals 30-35   White Sox 31-33

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday at 7:10

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday

NOT THE EXPOS: Federal Baseball

PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS

Anibal Sanchez vs. Odrisamer Despaigne

Patrick Corbin vs. TBA

PROBABLE NATIONALS LINEUP

Trea Turner – SS

Adam Eaton – RF

Anthony Rendon – 3B

Juan Soto – LF

Howie Kendrick – 1B

Matt Adams – DH

Brian Dozier – 2B

Gerardo Parra – CF

Yan Gomes – C

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – DH

James McCann – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Yonder Alonso – 1B

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Charlie Tilson – RF

 

The Sox and Nats finish out what is essentially a split four-game series the next two nights, leaving the Sox with the rare Wednesday off before the Yankees and all their fans smelling of sauerkraut show up for four through the weekend. In the interim, the Nationals spent the weekend in San Diego, splitting four with the Padres. That included hitting four consecutive homers off Craig Stammen yesterday to get a win, and it’s not like Stammen is on my fantasy team or anything and I’m not bitter at all.

It continued a soft push toward the middle for the Nats, who have won 11 of their last 15 since getting swept by the Mets. They’re still not really close to .500, much less ready to push the Braves or Philies, but they’re at least not loitering down with the Marlins as they were.

The offense has tuned up for them, as all of Kendrick, Rendon, Dozier, Suzuki, and Soto are on fire the past couple weeks. The Sox will know all about Suzuki, who has seemingly been the hitting version of Bruce Chen to them for his entire career, no matter where he’s plying his trade. That’s the last thing the Sox need right now.

The Sox will get another face-full of Anibal Sanchez, who pretty much rubbed their ass in the moonshine last out in DC. They’ll also get a first look at Patrick Corbin, who has been chum in his last two starts, giving up nine runs over 7.2 innings to the Reds and Padres. But on his day he can make you look pretty dumb.

As always with the Nats, their bridge to Sean Doolittle is rickety and unstable, and is pretty much the Tacoma Narrows bridge. Of late, Tanner Rainey, Matt Grace, and Wander Suero has held down the fort ok, and if that continues the Nationals have it in them to make a run in the NL East. Especially as the Phillies haven’t really gotten away.

For the Sox, they’ll continue to refuse to call Dylan Cease up even though Dylan Covey is now on the IL and they’re on their like 12th starter. So the wonderfully named Odrisamer Despaigne will get the call to bring his underwhelming repertoire to Comiskey, and to call him a journeyman would be something of a disservice. The Sox are his fifth organization in five years, perfecting the “have arm, will travel” career arc. He’s a seat-filler, but that’s apparently what the Sox think they need right now. They don’t have anyone listed for Tuesday night, so we could all be in for the Manny Banuelos experience again.

In other moves, Jace Fry is also on the IL and Nicky Delmonico was released to follow The Backstreet Boys on tour, as is his destiny.

A weird two-gamer before the always anticipated visit of the Yanks. Off we go.

 

Baseball

Nationals Spotlight: Patrick Corbin, Sliding Into Your…Everywhere

By Sam Fels 1180 0

There is something pretty simple about identifying your best pitch and deciding you’re just going to throw the ever living fuck out of it and see what happens. Most pitchers have decided they need a mix to get through a lineup two or three times. Then there are pitchers like Patrick Corbin, who stand out on a rock and say things like, “I throw a goddamn slider half the time and I dare you to do anything about it.”

The past two seasons, which just so happened to be the last two seasons before free agency for Corbin in Arizona, he decided that’s what he was going to do. Only two pitchers threw more sliders than Corbin in 2017, and only Jhoulys Chacin threw more last year. You could understand why, as according to FanGraphs it was the most valuable slider in the game. When toting that kind of weapon, it’s probably best you use it as much as you can, especially when you’re eying a contract with nine-digits on it, as Corbin got from the Nationals.

The scary thing for the Nats, or maybe it should have been, is that pitchers that lean that hard on a slider don’t tend to do very well long-term. Last year the top slider-throwers were Chacin, Corbin, Luis Severino, Jakob Junis, and Jon Gray. Chacin and Junis have ERAs over 5.00 this year, and Severino has yet to throw a pitch thanks to a lat strain. Only Gray has improved on what he did last year, and only marginally really.

In 2017, the top slider-throwers were Chris Archer, Corbin, Jason Hammel, John Lackey, and Ervin Santana. Archer has backed up since, and you don’t need me to tell you what happened to the other three.

The year previous, Madison Bumgarner made his way into the top five as far as throwing a slider, and then 2017 was the first year he ever got hurt and ended up missing about half the season. Same goes for Michael Pineda. It’s a very hard pitch to maintain its sharpness over multiple years and also your health. This is the needle that Corbin is trying to thread.

It would appear Corbin is somewhat aware of this, as he’s backed off of it a bit, throwing it 5% less than last year and replacing it with more fastball usage. It seems to have cost him some strikeouts and increased his walks, but he’s still got an ERA and FIP under 4.00. He’ll be hard-pressed to ever match the 11 K/9 that he put up last year, and if that’s what the Nationals thought they were paying for, well that’s on them.

The thing is, Corbin’s slider is getting more movement, both down and across the zone, than it did last year:

So he might be better off just riding and dying with it, whenever that might be.

That doesn’t make his signing any less weird. Yes, the Nationals definitely had a hole in the rotation after Scherzer and Strasburg, and you wouldn’t want any part of this in a playoff series. But does that matter if you’re not getting to the playoff series? The Nationals have a pretty middling offense–partly due to the growing pains of Victor Robles and Juan Soto–and a woeful bullpen. They also have an overmatched manager. Was another starter really highest on the shopping list?

It’s definitely a Cerberus of a top of a rotation. It’s just a wonder if that’s worth it when it’s getting you 80 wins.

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target: Jacob Trouba

By Sam Fels 1980 0

As we idle away waiting for Game 7, and really the offseason when the Hawks will be involved again, it’s probably time to cycle through some possible targets the Hawks could trade for. There will be time to discuss free agents, the draft as well, but we know a lot of deals happen between the end of the Final and draft day, and really right up until July 1st. With the free agent market being pretty damn thin, the Hawks are likely going to have to work out an exchange with someone if they want to upgrade either the defense or top six.

So let’s start with probably the best d-man available via trade, Jacob Trouba (unless Carolina gives up on Dougie, but we don’t know that they will).

Trouba is an RFA this summer, which means you could simply offer sheet him and just give up the draft picks. That runs the risk of the Jets matching, a forfeiture of picks that is a tad heavy, as well as breaking the NHL’s unwritten “no offer sheets” rule. So it’s more likely you’d have to work out a straight trade for his rights.

To some, it may be curious why the Jets would be giving up on their top-pairing d-man, and they certainly don’t have to do anything given his restricted status. But the Jets and Trouba have been at odds for years, and it’s hardly a secret that he wants out and has for some time. And the Jets, after a pretty sad first-round flameout are eager to make some changes, and probably want to keep a large chunk of the $25 mildo in space they have for Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor and maybe some new blood. Something is amiss up there (it’s behind the bench but they seem determined to ignore that), and the Jets will try and address it. They very well may start with clearing out a malcontent.

So the next question is what is Jacob Trouba? Well, he’s big at 6-3, but he’s mobile as well. There is a snarl to his game, or there can be. He took the hard shifts, along with Josh Morrissey, for the past few years, freeing up Dustin Byfuglien to do whatever it is he does, when he could be bothered to be healthy and not straining himself at Timbo’s. The last three years, Trouba has started about half of his shifts in the defensive zone

So with the unsheltered zone starts and the toughest competition, it puts something of a thin layer of gloss to his generally team-rate metrics. Trouba has always been just a tick ahead of the team rate when it comes to attempts and expected goals, and is just a year removed from a dominant year in expected goals relative to the rest of the Jets (+5.07).

Trouba is coming off something of an offensive explosion, setting a career-high in points with 50, 17 more than his previous high. Most of that can be attributed to far more power play time thanks to Byfuglien’s needing time with a wash cloth on a stick, and you can bank a lot of points on the man advantage simply being out there with Wheeler, Scheifele, and Laine. Clearly, Trouba wouldn’t get that here but he also wouldn’t be following a bunch of dolts on the power play either. Assuming he could get on it, which seems far fetched thanks to the presence of Messrs. Gustafsson, Keith, and Seabrook.

The other factor is that Trouba is right-handed, and balked in the past when the Jets tried to kick him over to the left side. The Hawks seem to be collecting right-shooting d-men, and just on the team next year you’d have Seabrook, Jokiharju, and Murphy. The latter two have shown they can play the left side if need be, but one wonders how much you want to go to that well.

Still, something seemed off with Trouba during the playoffs and most of the year. Maybe it was just the misery of the Jets, but at times when you’ve wanted him to dominate playoff games, it just hasn’t quite been there. That said, Trouba was excellent in the playoffs just a year ago when the Jets made their only run, so it’s in him, it’s just not always apparent.

Another question about Trouba is what kind of surcharge the Jets would slap on him to trade him within the division, and whether he is worth it. The Jets and Trouba clearly want to be done with each other, but there won’t be a shortage of suitors and the Jets would almost certainly prefer to get him somewhere where they don’t have to deal with him five times a year. It doesn’t always work out that way, but clearly the Hawks offer would have to best the second-best one by a distance.

What the Jets would be looking for is another question. They don’t really need another forward, though it probably can’t hurt. Trouba’s absence would have to be accounted for, especially as Byfuglien is getting fucking old. Selling them on just the Hawks defensive prospects is a stretch to be sure. Perhaps you could sell them on Gustafsson’s ridiculously low contract for a year and insurance that they would have a PP QB whenever Buff pulls another section of fat. But the Hawks seem to treat Gus like he’s found gold or that check that Ricky Henderson framed instead of depositing.

The bottom line is that Trouba is an improvement on what the Hawks have, and by a distance. He’s idealized Murphy, in that he’s not a puck-mover per se but he’s also not simply a road grater. He can get your team up the ice through passing and breaking up plays instead of his feet, but you’d want to pair him with another mobile d-man who can use his feet on the other side. The Hawks don’t have that right now, though they probably think it’s still Keith if just in the right spot.

It’s hard to believe but Trouba is still only 25, so some sort of long-term commitment is unlikely to bite you in the ass until very well down the road. He’s not everything the Hawks need, but he’s a lot of it. The problem is the Jets are going to be asking for the moon and they just might get it. Saad and a prospect and a second-round pick might not even be enough, and I can’t see the Hawks wanting to go much further than that. Especially as the Jets don’t really need Saad and the prospect almost certainly wouldn’t help them this year and the Jets are very much in their window.

It’s a long-shot, but one worth considering.