Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Blues vs. Predators – 7pm

It’s pretty much the last throw for the Blues if they still intend to win the division. They’re four points behind and have played more games, so lose here and they can focus on the Jets and Stars to try and remain in the auto spots. The Preds seems to be rounding into gear, as they’ve lost just twice in regulation since the turn of the calendar (and one of those was to the Hawks if you can figure that one out. Rumor has it they’re after Rick Nash, although I’m not sure how he fits on this team but he’s more goals and you can always use more goals.

Second Screen Viewing

Flames vs. Bruins – 6pm

Calgary’s only visit to The North End. The Bruins are firmly entrenched in second in the Atlantic and we can all get ready for Leafs-Bruins in Round 1 which could, and hopefully, sends parts of Toronto into the lake. The Flames have finally overtaken the wheezing Kings for third in the Pacific, and the Ducks are lingering around as well. The Sharks are also in range for all. After losing six in a row the Flames have won four of five and have to hope this is finally them sparking to life. There’s no reason this team should be dallying around with LA or Anaheim, other than the continued presence of Troy Brouwer I’m told.

Other Games

Lightning vs. Sabres – 6pm

Blue Jackets vs. Islanders – 6pm

Devils vs. Islanders – 6pm

Senators vs. Penguins – 6pm

Kings vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Ducks vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Rangers vs. Wild – 7pm

Capitals vs. Jets – 7pm

Coyotes vs. Sharks – 9:30pm

Everything Else

You can’t distill the Knights to just one surprise. They’re all over the place. At least Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith had flashed previous NHL scoring ability. Marc-Andre Fleury had been a good goalie before. Erik Haula had scored big goals in Minnesota. We could go on.

But it’s probably safe to say no one saw William Karlsson coming.

Karlsson was a second round pick for the Ducks, so he did come with some pedigree but not like top-10 stuff. He was a useful player in Columbus, a third- or fourth-line center who did enough to stay in the lineup. But he never threatened to rise above Alex Wennberg or Brandon Dubinsky in the pecking order. When it came time for the expansion draft, due to no-trade clauses and standing the Jackets basically had to choose between Boone Jenner and William Karlsson. Seeing as how Jenner has a 30-goal season on his resume, it didn’t seem like there was much of a decision.

So off Karlsson went, and 29 goals later the Jackets might just be wondering if they hadn’t fucked up royal.

There’s no point in going any further in discussing Karlsson without mentioning his shooting-percentage of 25%. That’s simply ludicrous and shouldn’t have even been sustainable this long. And that’s not even power play boosted, as that’s his SH% at even-strength. If the Knights think this will be the norm from here on out, they’re going to be sorely mistaken and sorry they’re tossing god knows how many millions at Karlsson. We’ll circle back to this.

Certainly, there are leaps in all of Karlsson’s numbers simply because he’s playing top line minutes and assignments. He’s starting more in the offensive zone than he ever has, which makes sense because you want him, Smith, and Marchessault near the other goal as often as possible.

What’s interesting about Karlsson’s season is that he’s not really averaging more attempts per 60 than he did in Columbus. He’s just out there more, so there’s more shots. He actually averaged more shots per 60 in his rookie year in Ohio. What has gone up is his individual expected goals per 60, which means those shots are coming from way better areas. That number has leapt up by 50% from the previous season. That wouldn’t excuse a 100% increase of his career-high shooting percentage, or a 500% increase from last year’s, but an increase would scan.

To be fair to Karlsson, he is facing by far tougher competition than he ever has, as you’d expect. And yet he keeps scoring. And it wasn’t one binge. He had 16 points in November, 10 in December, 11 in January, and four so far in six February games. He’s not riding just a hot start or a month of anger or something.

What the Knights have to figure out is how much of this is a mirage. Karlsson will be a RFA after the season, so they have all the leverage. Karlsson’s agent will point to what looks to be a 60-point season, his age of 25, and say he’s due $6 million or something. But the Knights don’t need to, nor should they, pay him that. If anyone needed a bridge deal, it’s probably Karlsson. If you’re the Knights, you have to know what he looks like when he’s not shooting 25%, a mark that comfortably leads the whole league by three percentage points. No one’s coming with an offer sheet, we know that. The Knights need to slow play this.

Not that the Knights don’t have a ton of cap space, or a wealth of guys they need to pay. They’ve locked up Marchessault. But other than Karlsson only James Neal and David Perron are due new deals, and neither figures to be around when the Knights are doing this for a real (yes, the bubble will pop next year. It simply has to). We’ll see what George McPhee has in store, which is probably something dumb.

 

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There are a lot of annoying things about the Vegas Golden Knights. As our colleague Slak pointed out on a podcast, the only league that has expansion teams at the top of the standings is MLS and that league is a joke. So that’s top. The Twitter feed, the coverage, wherever you want to start.

But there can’t be a bigger indictment of hockey players than the fact that the Knights have the best home record in the league. Yes, they’ve been a surprise. They should not have been this surprise. And that’s because NHL players can’t be asked to act like a fucking professional for one goddamn night.

It’s like hockey players have never heard of Las Vegas before. They know they can go there in the offseason or on bye weeks or All Star breaks, right? Or do they not know that New York, Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, Los Angeles, and Miami are also great places to go out? There’s nothing in Vegas you can’t do in NYC. And don’t say gambling, because if you’ve never been in a back alley dice game in Queens then you haven’t been to New  York.

Like seriously, you have a game to play. Vegas has tons of great restaurants. Have a nice dinner, and then go out after the game. Scrap your travel until the next day. It’s not hard.

Maybe I don’t understand what it’s like to be young, rich, and good looking (I was never any of these). Maybe all of the temptations of Sin City, some of which are just out of reach for the plebes like us, are just too alluring. Maybe you just can’t say no. Maybe this will be a problem for any football teams that arrive there soon enough when the Raiders move. Then again, football coaches would never allow that shit and would probably keep their teams out in the desert until an hour before kickoff.

And the Hawks had done this before. It was always a stop on the Circus trip between legs, and yet they always seemed to have a good record on the Circus Trip. Because they didn’t have to play. I don’t think it’s asking much to treat it like a business trip. Anyone who’s done the convention thing in Vegas knows you save the good stuff until the end otherwise you end up blowing millions of the company’s money and you now have a business-hooker.

But getting hockey players to act over the age of 12 has always been a challenge.

 

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It would be folly to try and talk everyone off the ledge after last night. When you get pumped by the NHL’s worst team, there’s nowhere to hide. You’re pissed off. You should be. No matter the holes in the lineup, and even without Crawford, it shouldn’t look like this. There’s no excuse for this. There seems to be little excuse for 25 goals in 13 games. There’s simply no excuse for just how listless they’ve looked of late. For a team that prided itself on never panicking and never being beaten, they sure look like they accepted their fate (COOAAACHHHHH!) long ago. That was a team last night that didn’t look like it cared much.

So you want everyone fired. Understandable. You’re in a rage. Yeah, fair. It wasn’t that long ago that we saw stuff like this every year, but you’re accustomed to different. They’ve told you to be accustomed to different. This isn’t that. You want changes. You very well may get them.

But before we take a torch to it all, let’s breathe. Last night was an example of where we’ve been since Crawford got hurt. The 1st period was bad, and I can’t explain that away. But in the second, they showed some spice. They got a goal, had the momentum, and you really would have bet on them finding an equalizer.

But just like happened in Vancouver, and a few other times, whether it was a defensive mistake or goalie one, the Hawks let in a bad goal. And you can just see the life go out of them. There’s a real, “Why even bother?” air about them when stuff like this has happened. The fight goes out. And when you feel like your efforts are always going to be undone by something in your own end due to your own incompetence, it’s probably hard to muster up a ton of get-up-and-go.

Still, you want coach and GM fired. Ok, let’s go through that. I’m not sure Q can do any more with this roster than he has, whatever our complaints are, but it sure does feel like we’re at a point where firing Q doesn’t even have that much to do with him. Just a new voice and some new ideas might be welcome simply because they’re new. I don’t know who that would be–Brad Lauer as an assistant to Jon Cooper seems like a good start but it could be anyone–but it appears that Q doesn’t get the same response he did and he’s out of cards to play.

Here’s the other thing. It might be that the players would respond to some new assistants. We know Q’s choices for assistants haven’t exactly been glittering. Mike Kitchen – moron. They had to fire him for Q because the players despised him for so long. Jamie Kompon – moron.  Kevin Dineen – we thought he wasn’t a moron, but then you look at this power play and you wonder. Ulf Samuelsson – judging by how the defense is playing, you’d have to guess he’s a moron. Maybe the players have seen through this.

You want Stan gone, too. Fair, I see why. It feels like he built a creaky roster wholly dependent on his goalie and the one thing that couldn’t happen happened. I would counter that many teams are in this position, and have before, but you’re not used to it. Fine.

This is where the Hawks lack of transparency hurts. Again, if Stan had come out at training camp and told everyone that this season, while they want to be competitive and be in the playoffs, what the main goal is is turning over the roster beneath the veterans. They have to blood in Top Cat and Schmaltz and Duclair and Forsling and Dahlstrom and Gustafsson and find out what they have. Then you wouldn’t much argue with what’s gone on here.

Ok, the Saad trade hasn’t worked out the way we thought. I also wouldn’t judge it on one year. Maybe this is what Saad is, but at 24 I don’t want to conclude that. If Panarin were still here, I doubt the Hawks are more than one or two points better. You still wouldn’t really have a bottom six. The defense would still be a mess.

Don’t even start with me about Hjalmarsson and Murphy. Murphy at worst has given the Hawks everything Hammer would have, and likely more. He’s just been the victim of his coach acting like a child. That’s not why this team kinda sucks. If not fully sucks.

So to me, firing Stan in the middle of a rebuild-on-the-fly to try and squeeze one more run out of this window isn’t sensical. If you want to fire him for previous mistakes–Johns, Teuvo, Danault–it seems like odd timing. And some of those, or all of them were parts of trades to either go for it, placate his coach, deal with contracts that he might not have had a full say over, or all of the above. Again, some of this is self-inflicted.

There’s the inability to develop a d-man. Well, there’s Johns but that’s about it. Forsling shouldn’t be given up on. We should see what Dahlstrom has. Neither look to be top pairing material, and the Hawks are going to have to find their own Charlie McAvoy or Mikail Sergachev or the like to take the heat off Keith. They haven’t proven they can find that.

You wanted a more active summer. Ok, but the problem was, as previously discussed, that with Hossa having to be LTIR’d you couldn’t really use his money. They could have used that space in the summer, and then just had no flexibility during the season. I’m not sure what d-man would have helped.

If indeed this is what this season was, without them stating it, I feel like you need to see it out. I’m not sure when it’s complete. Sikura and Jokharju? Whoever they draft this June is up? I would guess Stan gets a coaching hire and then two seasons to see where they are. Then you can blow it up.

All I ask is that next fall, they tell you exactly what it is they’re trying to do here.

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 24-23-8   Coyotes 13-32-10

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BY THE TIME THEY GOT TO ARIZONA: Five For Howling

It’s been a long time since the Hawks played a game totally in the dark, or one you’d definitely file under “scalper’s night off.” This will harken back to the long-forgotten Bad Old Days, with two last place teams duking it out in front of a probably half-full and indifferent arena. It might feel oddly familiar to you. You may think that you remember such times and that you may have even been at a few of these. Yes, you were. A decade can feel like a long time, but that’s all it was. You may wonder why you’re even bothering now, and then you’ll recall you wondered why you even bothered then. And here we are. Life is nothing but a cycle.

At least the Coyotes will be playing the role of “it could always be worse.” They’re in year 38 of their rebuild, or at least it seems that way. It was six years ago that the Coyotes Mike Smith’d their way to a conference final, and you probably haven’t thought about them since. Neither have they, at least that’s how it looks.

What must be so frustrating for Coyotes fans is that if the Yotes have a plan, it still looks to be in stage one. And they’ve been there for a few years now. And it doesn’t show great potential to get out of there soon. Before the year, the hope must’ve been to see what Domi, Keller, Duclair, Dvorak, and soon the call-up of Chychrun on the back end would portend to the future. Well, Duclair is here now, Domi is apparently on the trade block with his three goals, Dvorak has flattened out, and Keller and Chychrun do look like the real deal but they need a ton of help. Christian Fischer looks like he might be something, but Brendan Perlini and Tobias Rieder haven’t taken the next step. So as of right now, the Yotes might have two tothree pieces to build around. After six years of sucking. That’s not how this works, that’s not how any of this works.

A huge part of the problem, other than lack of talent, is that Rick Tocchet might not have any idea what he’s doing. Really the only claim he has in his coaching career, other than being his own sportsbook, is that he was a step up from Barry Melrose in Tampa Bay. Which is saying just about the bare minimum about anyone. He was quickly dumped there for Guy Boucher, which tells you all you need to know. It’s not clear that Tocchet has a defined system that he wants these guys playing, or that he has a deft hand at improving young players. Which should be the main goal right now of any Coyotes coach. Considering the players that have looked to stall out…

Usually when a team sucks you can point to goaltending, but Antti Raanta has been fine. Not great, but fine, though he’s missed some time with injury. Since Hjalmarsson and Demers returned from injury, the Yotes even have a decent top four with Chychrun and OEL. They just have nothing up front. It’s not a surprise they’re last in the league in goals. And even with that top four and Raanta they’re second-worst in goals against. They deserve to be adrift at the foot of the standings.

All of this lines them up for Rasmus Dahlin of course, which would lead young hot thing John Chayka some decisions to make. One of those could be made for him if Ekman-Larsson decides he deserves better. There would be markets for both Demers and Hjalmarsson, though someone has to remain behind to babysit Dahlin and Chychrun, should the former arrive. Or he Yotes could try and find a #1 center which quite frankly they’ve never had since Keith Tkachuk couldn’t put down the fork. But years of high picks have got them… this. See, it could be worse.

As for the Hawks… well, I’m not sure anyone cares anymore. Anton Forsberg should regain the net, Corey Crawford is at least with the team but one wonders if it’s even worth bringing him back now. We’ll find out a lot about the Hawks and how they think if he plays again this season or not. Carl Dahlstrom will remain in to do whatever it is he does. He’ll be in for either Kempny or Murphy, which will suck because at this point I don’t see why Jordan Oesterle can’t park himself in the pressbox for a night. Oh right, he needs to QB a critical 5-on-3. Head meet oven.

At this point it should be about professional pride for the Hawks. Yes, things are bad. Yes, the season is almost certainly lost. But if you go into Arizona and spit it, that means you don’t care and everyone is thinking about golf times already. Wouldn’t say much for the leadership of this team. So let’s not do that. And don’t give me the whole “draft position!” spiel. The Hawks aren’t going to be bad enough to get into the bottom five on record and if the NHL is going to rig the bouncing balls to get the #1 pick to the Hawks they can do that from anywhere.

Boy these last two months are going to be fun.

 

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If you’re one of those freaks like us that hopes one day hockey management might be moved out of the caves and stop being afraid of the sun, there’s a part of you that wants the John Chayka’s of the world to succeed. Someone is going to have to be first through the wall. It’s not Kyle Dubas in Toronto, who apparently is locked in a dark room 20 hours a day and is only let out to bathe and eat. There aren’t really any other stat-boys in GM chairs or even listened to by those in the GM chairs. The Florida experiment crashed and burned already and now Dale Tallon is trying to light the ashes on fire.

The early returns on Chayka aren’t wholly promising, though not a clear disaster either.

Chayka’s first draft saw the Coyotes with two first round picks, and both have been mainstays in the NHL this season. Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun have both flashed being top line/top pairing talent at times as well. So on that end, that’s a success. But it takes more than getting first round picks right. No other pick from the 2016 draft has come up for air yet, and neither has anyone from the last draft. Fine, whatever.

Chayka got a chance to set a new direction for the team when he got to hire his own coach this past summer. Dave Tippett finally had enough of losing in the desert and organizational chaos. And on the evidence we have so far, Chayka whiffed on this one to the point where he Javy Baez’ed and fell down. While Rick Tocchet might not have a ton of talent to work with, it’s got to be better than this. The Yotes are the worst team in the league, and basically their underlying numbers say they should be. They can’t even pin it on goaltending, as Antti Raanta has been fine when healthy, though his fill-ins haven’t been. Still, there have to be better trends for us to conclude that Tocchet has any idea what he’s doing after another “huh?” stint in Tampa. Then again, there might not have been too many coaches lining up to take over what has been a basketcase organization for a decade now. Though you could also argue that would be the perfect setting to give a younger, non-old boys club candidate a chance.

Worse yet for the Yotes, he’s not developing the young talent that’s there. Max Domi had a very promising rookie year two seasons ago. He had an injury-marred one last year. He has three goals this year, and now there are whispers that the Yotes are kicking the tires on finding him a new home. Anthony Duclair asked out as he didn’t want to be a part of this mess anymore. Dvorak and Rieder look to have stalled out a bit. It’s not enough.

Chayka’s trades and signings have been…strange. Yes, Duclair asked out and that handcuffs a GM a bit. But for an older player like Richard Panik who’s going to continue to be Richard Panik? At least take on someone else’s project so there’s hope. Alex Goligoski has been nothing short of a disaster. Derek Stepan has been ok, and if he’s here to just be an example to younger kids that’s fine. He at least grifted Tallon for Jason Demers, and if he really wants he can probably cash that chip in at the deadline too. Again, he decided to get older by swapping out Connor Murphy for Niklas Hjalmarsson, perhaps at the behest of Oliver Ekman-Larsson. But now he might have to ship out OEL, too. And just what the fuck is Zac Rinaldo doing here at all?

So far, OEL has made no noise about wanting to leave. If he were to, this deadline is when his value would be at its highest. A team acquiring him would get two playoff runs with him before he breaks the bank at 27. Otherwise you’re getting 75-cents on the dollar. Or you’re keeping him, but then you’d better draft really well and soon.

The Coyotes, if they’re on an upswing, don’t appear to be on nearly as quick of one as other rebuilding teams like the Avs or Devils. At some point this has to be kicked into high gear. Are you doing that if you lose all of Domi, Murphy, and Duclair? Is Keller enough?

And we wait for our hockey Billy Beane some more…

 

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Oh calm down. We’d never turn against our favorite Tre Kronor regular. Niklas Hjalmarsson was a great Hawk, a major part of three Cups, and certainly should be remembered well in these parts.

But it’s that last component that’s getting really annoying. Especially considering some of the other complains about this current Hawks team.

You can’t sit, bitch, and moan about Brent Seabrook’s play and contract and then bemoan the loss of Hammer. It’s non-sensical and hypocritical. If the theory is the Hawks should have cashed in Seabrook’s rep in the aftermath of a third triumph for part(s) younger and cheaper, then that’s exactly what the Hawks did with Hammer.

Because if you were paying attention in the second half of last season, Hjalmarsson was not good. He had just as many scorch marks on him after the Nashville series as anyone else did. And stay-at-home d-men, especially ones that eat as much rubber as Hjalmarsson did, do not age well. In fact, they’re starting to be phased out of the game altogether as teams look at teams like the Predators with six d-men who can move and think they might want some of that.

That doesn’t mean that Connor Murphy is a given. Especially if his coach won’t stop wetting himself over the deal. But it’s the kind of thing you need to try, and the kind of thing the Hawks probably should have done more of and earlier than they did.

It’s sad to think in some ways, given what Hjalmarsson gave to the Hawks, but in a league that’s getting smaller and faster and more skilled, his kind of d-man just might not be all that valuable soon. You have to be mobile to play defense in this league, and Hammer didn’t have much of a step to lose. He probably already lost it. The Hawks don’t need shot-blockers. They need guys who get the puck to the other end of the ice. That’s never been Hammer.

Thank him for what he did. Remember it fondly. And also keep in mind that nothing lasts forever, and you have to move on at times. Even if it feels earlier that you anticipated.

 

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