Game #81 Preview
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 32-37-10 Blues 43-30-6
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBCSN (It’s Rivalry Night, Don’t Ya Know?)
THE COLD AND DESPERATE: St. Louis Gametime
This is what it’s come to. This “small club” mentality. We used to mock those (i.e. the Blues) whose goals and aims, for fans and players alike, was merely dragging a superior rival down. We laughed that they had nothing else to hang on to. Remember April ’11, when the Blues were determined to knock the Hawks out of the playoffs? Sharp rushed back on one knee and Toews was able to take advantage of Ty Conklin having the angle awareness of a drunken sloth to win it in overtime. That wasn’t the last time that’s happened between these teams of course, the Blues claiming minor/moral victories here and there while the Hawks collected the real baubles. Pictures in a box at home…yellowing and green with mold…
And now this is where we are. The only hope to have a smile about this season is two games with the wholly desperate Blues, who sit one point outside the playoffs but with a game in hand on the Avalanche, who hold the last spot. Those two play on the last night of the season, so even if the Hawks were to somehow get around having unemployed rodeo clowns in net and take both of these next two in regulation, the Blues could still pull themselves out of the muck by beating the Avs in Denver (assuming the Avs don’t beat the Sharks tomorrow night). Further complicating matters is the two teams are tied on ROW at the moment at 40. So it’s going to be white knuckle time for everyone.
And it hurts to admit it would bring a smile to my face if the Hawks cost the Blues a playoff spot. We’re supposed to be bigger than this. The season is lost and our eyes are always supposed to be pointed higher. But I’m a small and petty man, and dragging someone into the muck with you, especially if it’s these cretins… if that’s the only catharsis we’re going to get then let’s have it. Just to let them know they’ll never be free. Plus there’s the added bonus that missing the playoffs will send that organization into an existential crises that can’t help but have hilarious results.
Then again, all the Hawks might have to do is just remain upright and let the Blues do what they do best…Blues all over themselves. They had a home date with the nothing-to-play-for Caps on Monday and promptly blew a lead to lose 4-2. They gave up a touchdown to the Coyotes on Saturday night. They lost to the Knights before that. Only the Avs hiccup in California so far has even allowed the Blues to have a shred of hope. It would suck for the Hawks to be their lifeline, you have to admit.
It’s not like the problems have changed much since we last saw the Blues a couple weeks ago. Jake Allen can’t put it together, and yet they’re determined to shove the job right down his throat. Carter Hutton, who kept the team afloat in January, but admittedly fell apart in February, has played twice since March 1. He got lit up by both Dallas and Arizona. So they’re going to almost certainly let Allen take all three of the remaining games, and he’s barely been ok of late. He had a .916 in March, which is all right, but all right might not save a team that currently has Kyle Fucking Brodziak at a #2 center. That’s what happens when your GM goes into sell-mode but only like halfway and the rest of the NHL can’t bury your half-in, half-out team.
That’s another problem for the Blues. They don’t score a ton, even though they carry the play and chances in most games. They have one genuine, class finisher in Tarasenko, which you knew. But most everyone else who did at least a passable impression of one has gone cold. Schenn has one goal in eight. Schwartz has two in 11, and both of those came in the same game. Alex Steen was dropped into a vat of DIP. The only forward other than Tank who’s on anything resembling a hot streak is Patrik “Yes Somehow He’s Still Here” Berglund, with four in his last six. And he has a such a sterling rep for showing up when it counts. If Tarasenko doesn’t fire them into the playoffs, ain’t no one else gonna. Thankfully for them they get a face-full of JF Berube or Jeff Glass or whatever other form Quenneville and Bowman can dig out of their ear to play goal the next two games.
As for the Hawks… oh christ who gives a flying fuck? You know the drill here. Some dope in net, and basically the same lineup you’ve seen. Maybe Q will break up the “Kids” line of Top Cat, EggShell, and Sikura because they got worked in Colorado and there’s no sheltering them on the road. Maybe he’ll continue to see what they can do in the deep end. Blay Killman will probably exit stage right after getting a run-out in front of his college and drinking buddies in Denver. That should see Jan Rutta return. And more of Gustafsson-Murphy, which might be the only pairing you see again next year given how things have gone for them. These are the lights were trying to find our way with.
Three more to go, people.
Game #80 Preview
This blog has always had an appreciation of Mike Yeo. Most of it comes from the 2014 Central Division Final, the second consecutive season of three the Hawks would run up against Yeo’s Wild, where Yeo threw everything at the Hawks. The Wild would go from trapping to furiously forechecking and everything in between, sometimes period to period. For the last four games of that series, the handicapped Wild had the Hawks flummoxed, and really only the Hawks superior talent saw them through. There wasn’t much Yeo could do about that. The next year he simply tried to run with the Hawks, and they got swept.
It always seemed like Yeo was maxing out the Wild. They finished with 98 points and 100 points in ’14 and ’15, his last two full seasons there. Given that there was never a #1 center there (still really isn’t) and some of the kids never quite developed, that definitely seemed the ceiling. Two straight trips to the second round was the best result the Wild ever managed. Which is a sad statement, but that’s not on Yeo.
And yet given what’s gone on since in St. Paul and St. Louis, now you wonder.
Certainly, the Blues had something of a bounce when Yeo took over for Ken Hitchcock last year. As any coach would. The players had tuned out Hitch a few times over the last couple seasons, and simply not having him there was a lift. Yeo managed a 22-8-2 record over the final 32 games, whereas Hitch was barely over .500. And once again, Yeo got a team to the second round, though he only had Jake Allen to thank for it as Minnesota severely outplayed the Blues in that first-round series. And again, Yeo ran into a machine in the second round, this time in Predator yellow instead of Hawk red, and went home.
But now the Blues are barely hanging on in the playoff race, and looking over this roster you have to think it should be more. No, there’s not much Yeo can do about Jay Gallon once again going into the tank, where he seems to have a vacation home. But he’s also gotten a .930 season out of Carter Hutton to mitigate that a bit. Yes, Fabbi Robbri or Robbi Fabbry hasn’t played a game, and that’s a big miss. Jaden Schwartz has missed a lot of time, as have Carl Gunnarsson, Jay Bouwmeester, Patrik Berglund, and Robert Bortuzzo. On the other side of the coin, Bouwmeester, Berglund, and Bortuzzo suck. It’s not Yeo’s fault his GM basically gave up on the season and traded Paul Stastny, and yet the Blues have remained on the scene, barely.
Yeo has gotten a career year out of Brayden Schenn, still has Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, and some promising kids. The Blues seemed destined for 95 points or thereabouts, and that’s just where Yeo’s teams finish.
Meanwhile, in St. Paul, Bruce Boudreau got a division title last year and another 100-point season on the cards this year. Now, that’s what Bruce Boudreau does, and part of his problem is going all out in the regular season and leaving his team with tongues on the floor when it matters. Still, these will be the best consecutive seasons Minnesota has ever had, yet another sad statement. When this one also doesn’t go anywhere, most will wonder if it matters.
Still, Boudreau has gotten production out of Jason Zucker and Mikael Granlund that Yeo never could. Yeo never had Eric Staal at the X, but Eric Staal is pouring in 40 goals for Gabby. Again, it’s all full of sound and fury and almost certainly signifies nothing, but Yeo had his share of veterans who flattened out as well.
Yeo may pay with his job, though it’s really Doug Armstrong who probably needs to go. But a new GM is going to want his own coach. Yeo would argue he should get a crack with a remade, younger roster that the Blues could boast next year with Schenn, Tarasenko, a healthy Fabbi or Robbri, Schmaltz, Thompson, Dunn, Barbashev, and one or two others. He would also argue he needs a non-enigma in net, meaning someone who isn’t Jay Gallon.
But the grounds for him to get that season seem awfully loose. And given how Granlund, Zucker, Dumba blossomed after Yeo left Minny, one wonders if he should be given a ton of kids to work with.
Game #80 Preview
There was a time, not so long ago, when we used to produce a program just like this for every home game. We had quite the little rivalry with St. Louis Gametime. So in a nod to the past, we’re just going to give you their program for tonight’s game. Cinch it up and hunker down. It’s 24 pages of St. Louis.
Game #80 Preview
There’s always one guy. One guy that Blues fans always assure us is finally going to make the difference. The one player that Hawks fans will come to hate as he finally makes the Blues the superior team for years and years. Never quite seems to work out, does it?
Remember Vladdy Sobotka? He turned out to be a real nuisance in that first round series in 2014. Had three assists in the six games, but the Hawks couldn’t deal with his line most shifts. And Blues fans assured us that more and better was coming.
And then he fucked off to Russia for more money for three seasons. He came back just in time for the playoffs last year, which coincidentally was right about the time his contract would run out and he’d need a new one. Funny, that. Anyway, his return was hailed as the final piece for the Blues, again, and he would complete their lineup. Then they got stomped by the Predators, Sobotka has basically cashed his check all season, and now the Blues look like they could easily miss the playoffs.
It’s just another in a long tradition. Remember when they couldn’t wait to tell us that TJ Oshie had scored more goals at North Dakota than Toews? That worked out great for them. Remember when Pietrangelo was going to rack up more Norrises than Keith? Memories. Remember when Paul Kariya was the big time free agent they could never get? Did he ever actually score for the Blues or just tie the strings on his jersey into a pretty little knot? Jaro Halak would be the goalie that would finally right all the wrongs. He righted a lot, as in turning to his right to see what was behind him. This list could go all the way back through Pronger and Shanahan and who knows what else.
It’s never the guy. It’s never the piece. It’s never the time. But it’s gotten to the point where it’s so cute to let them think so.
Game #80 Preview
Well, not all things. But there are a couple things out in the bloodstream I’d like to talk about. The first was this from last week’s 31 Thoughts by Elliote Friedman. Before we get to the actual merits of the idea McDonough suggested at the GM meetings, I can’t help but smirk at the, “But we’re still paying them, right?,” line. Really lets you know where things are in the minds of really all presidents and owners. Yes John, you’re still paying them. Just like NFL players that don’t dress on Sundays (there are seven of the 53 who don’t), or the guys in suits at the end of an NBA bench. What McDonough is really asking here is probably more to the point of if they can find a way to not pay them then to sub them in.
But it’s his idea of having the option of subbing in players mid-game that gets the press here, and I have to say it’s at least worth thinking about. Much like a sub in soccer, it would bring one player out for the rest of the game while keeping the subbed in one involved the rest of the way. Injuries wouldn’t be as serious to a team in a game if after the period or even immediately you could dress one of your scratches.
The strategy of it would be the real watch. As this season has gone along I’ve been more and more leaning toward seeing teams dress seven d-men and have 11 forwards, and having your three or four best forwards get the extra shifts. Just here in town, what would be more preferable: getting Andreas Martinesen 12 minutes or seeing Kane, Saad, DeBrincat getting an extra two or three minutes? Think of it like batting your best hitter in the #2 spot. It’s become the new thing to do, because over a season you wring an extra 50 or more ABs. Well, two-three minutes a game over a full season probably nets you more goals, and these days things are settled on a handful of goals for or against.
This would only extend that. Down in a game you could bring in your cowboy d-man whom you’re afraid to play over a game or your shutdown guy who can’t really be trusted either. Or an extra forward if you want, It probably can’t sway too many games because if a certain player was that good he wouldn’t be scratched anyway. But still, it provides intrigue.
There’s only one downside that I can see: This would give coaches an easier outlet to have a goon/thug on the roster and only play him for a period. You can easily see a team getting whomped one night and a coach reaching for perhaps the most childish and dumbest hockey tradition of “message sending.” So out for the third comes whatever barely developed beast the team has out of the cage where he was tossed raw meat and fish heads to “stir shit up” and really cause a scene. You know this would happen. And we’d all be dumber for it.
There are obviously questions. How do you keep these players warm for a period or two? Simply riding the bike isn’t going to be enough. Can they get a five-minute skate at intermissions before the zambonis come out? Maybe, maybe not, and with the intermission mishegas it’s even less likely. But there’s probably a way.
It’s worth thinking about. The NHL shouldn’t outright dismiss any new ideas right now, and this doesn’t significantly warp the game while giving coaches more options and keeping players more involved. Maybe teams are more tempted to give their stars nights and periods off if they can, and keep them fresh for when it really matters, which really should be a bigger concern in the league. It’s worth talking about.
-As for McDonough’s day job, I see more people yelling at Lazerus and the other beat writers about who will GM the Hawks next year. I think a history lesson is important.
You may not have been around then, but when McD and Rocky first took over they knew enough to know they didn’t know jack or shit about hockey. So they brought in Scotty Bowman as their de facto president of hockey operations. It was Scotty who told them they’ll never figure out what they have on the roster if they don’t get a real coach in there, and only waited four games to whack Denis Savard thanks to Quenneville’s DUI the previous summer. (and it was also Scotty who probably told them to find a way to torpedo Tallon to hire his son, but considering how the 08-09 season went, that was put on hold for a year). Scotty advised them on pretty much every hockey decision.
So for those who want Stan fired, keep in mind that Scotty is unlikely to help find a replacement for his son, and he’s also 135 years old now. That would leave McD and Rocky to their own devices, and quite frankly I can’t help but think it might result in something looking like the Bears “search firm” adventures of the past, or seeing which way Ernie Accorsi’s wig is pointing that day.
Perhaps in ten years McDonough has taken time out from telling everyone what a great job he’s done or slathering himself in his own praise while presiding over one of the more born-on-third organizations in sports to get some connections and plug himself in a bit more to actual hockey goings-on. But I wouldn’t be so sure. Remember his presidency of the Cubs wasn’t even two years and all he did there was open the checkbook for Jim Hendry and his barrel to prepare for the sale of the team. This isn’t a man with a “grand plan.”
There will come a time that Stan has to be fired or let go or he’ll walk and McD will have to find his replacement on his own. I’m just not sure you want that ASAP.
It’s hard to have a quiet, point-per-game-plus season, but that’s what happens when your linemate has channeled the power of the sun. Mikko Rantanen has 80 points, and you probably didn’t now it. But someone has to benefit from whatever Nathan MacKinnon isn’t scoring himself, and he’s done that quite well.
The 80 points at the age of 21, however it came about, is a huge landmark that should have Avalanche fans (all eight of ’em) spraying their drawers. Since 2000, here’s the list of players that have 80+ point seasons at the age of 21: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Eric Staal, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, John Tavares, Nicklas Backstrom, and Rantanen. That’s four Hart Trophy winners, a couple other finalists, and Rantanen. So yeah, there should be big things in store for Mikko in the future.
The first thing that jumps out about Rantanen is his size, as he checks in at 6-4 and 211 pounds. So you’d assume that he’s a power forward who is just banging home rebounds from three feet and in, getting the put-backs and hustle baskets. So his 16.1 SH% wouldn’t seem that lucky, given where you’d assume he’s shooting from. Not so. Rantanen is hardly strong, at least not yet, and can be knocked around pretty easily. Secondly, Rantanen likes to play in space and the outside more than you’d guess, and probably more than the Avs would honestly like.
Rantanen’s individual expected goals for at evens is only 8.6, and he’s topped that by scoring 14 even-strength goals. When comparing what players “should” score and what they have actually scored, Rantanen’s in the top 20 in terms of “luckiest.” Clearly the 10 power play goals have helped. But even there he’s way out-shooting what he “should” score, with a near 19% shooting-percentage on the man-advantage.
When you look at players that earn their high shooting-percentages because they’re basically making opposing goalies smell what they had on the pregame spread, you see individual expected goals like James Van Riemsdyk’s 16.8, or Blake Wheeler’s 11.2, or Hornqvist’s 15.7. Rantanen just hasn’t gotten there yet.
Which doesn’t mean he won’t. Those names mentioned above suggest Rantanen can continue to try and create and be in space and he’s going to score a fuckton and ain’t nobody going to care that he doesn’t do it from dunk range. And a few of those names up there outscored their xGF, too. The Avs might be better off just finding someone else to do it on that line with him and MacKinnon. Still, the warning signs of benefitting from a horseshoe up his ass is something that should be paid attention to.
Which leads you to believe that despite their best efforts, the Avs have a pretty bright future ahead. Rantanen is 21. Kerfoot and Jost are 23 and 20. Kamenev is 21. There are a bevy of kids coming in the next two years. If they find a defense, then the Avs might be around here a while. And it will be annoying.
Game #79 Preview
