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Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews: Jan Rutta

By Rose Rankin September 12, 2018 2312 0

There was a time when I thought Jan Rutta might be a halfway decent defenseman. Sure, he was a nobody from a random European league, but I personally have a soft spot for Euros, and besides, the Hawks have a good track record with European scouting.

Oh how wrong I was. Rutta was basically a bust, and the Hawks added insult to injury (literally) by giving him a contract extension for 2.25 million rather than using that money to, oh, I don’t know, bring in someone not constantly tripping over his own dick in the defensive zone. And what I mean by that “literally” comment is that Rutta missed a bunch of games with various and sundry injuries just before the re-signing, making it all the more infuriating. But he’s here and it appears we’re stuck with him, so let’s do this:

2017-18 Stats

57 GP – 6 G – 14 A

49.8 CF% – 50.6 oSZ%

Avg. TOI 19:15

A Brief History: Rutta pretty much sucked, but one could be tempted to blame his fellow slag, Gustav Forsling, who he was paired with more often than not. Rutta had the second-worst possession numbers out of defensemen (49.8 CF% at evens), and the only guy worse was…wait for it…Gustav Foreskin, his erstwhile partner! Unsurprisingly, their joint possession numbers were terrible (48.2 CF%).

But it’s not just that his work with Forsling was hideous to watch. Rutta’s numbers embodied the definition of lackluster: -3.0 CF% rel, 48 xGF%, 33 giveaways to 10 takeaways, it just goes on like this. To his credit, Rutta had the third-highest point total for a defenseman last year at 20, but he had the frustrating habit of scoring a goal after a craptacular run of mistakes, and it was just enough for Q to ignore logic and recent memory and keep putting him in the lineup. The contract extension in March was salt in the wound that resulted from watching the Hawks’ blue line, and it promises to continue causing agony for the foreseeable future.

It Was the Best of Times: The best-case scenario is that Rutta ends up a serviceable third-pairing guy. And by serviceable I mean he improves his possession numbers and his mobility—even just a little. Maybe he and fellow undeserving-signee Erik Gustaffson can kill enough time on a third pairing to let Keith, Murphy, and whoever else gets stuck with Seabrook catch their breath. Maybe he and Brandon Manning can perfect the “just a guy” pairing and not give up about 8,000 goals when they’re out there. Eating up ice time with minimal damage would be the ideal outcome here.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Conversely, the worst-case scenario is that Rutta has a starring role on this defense. If Q puts him on the top pairing with Keith—and don’t think it can’t happen; they had a 52 CF% in Rutta’s 57 games last year—we’re going to have an aging Keith with an immobile partner who is prone to turnovers. Not exactly what you want for what is ostensibly your best pairing. In this nightmare, Rutta bumbles through countless bad giveaways and gets smoked by the opposing offense, yet somehow scores 10 goals and Quenneville’s selective amnesia goes unchecked, while Duncan Keith deteriorates faster than he should. Don’t let the above-water possession stat from last year fool you—this would be a comedy of errors most nights.

Prediction: What likely happens is a mix of these two scenarios. Rutta plays with Keith until a series of egregious mistakes forces Q’s hand. He spends time bouncing between the second and third pairings as Q hits the blender like a drunken bridesmaid attempting to make frozen margaritas near the end of a bachelorette party. He ends up in the press box periodically as Jokiharju comes into his own (it’s wishful thinking I know but LET ME HAVE THIS). Rutta ends the season with less than 15 points and fewer than 5 goals, and when his one-year extension is up, the team lets him go and we all breathe a sigh of relief. Or they trade him as part of a package for a real defenseman, like we’ve been waiting for these past five months. But that’s too much wishful thinking—this is a prediction after all.

Previous Player Previews

Cam Ward

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Brandon Manning

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You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Toronto Maple Leafs

By Matt McClure September 11, 2018 2274 0

But how does this affect the Leafs?

Any time literally anything in hockey, or sports in general happens, the Canadian Hockey Media and 95% of Canadian hockey fans pen either short or longform thoughts on this exact hypothetical. Maple Leafs fans are the most populous group in the sport, and they are also the most vocal and the most incapable of dealing with other human beings on any real level. They have made a ball hockey playing Baby Huey, a face painted cigarette smoking sexist, and an actual psychopath shrieking in front of his action figures in his basement “experts” via social media. Those that don’t even fall into those extremes are far more concerned with salary cap ramifications than the realities of actually winning a championship because doing so would completely strip them of their narcissistic, cloyingly self-deprecating, head-up-their-own-ass fandom. The latter tendency has led them to form a cult around a Rivers Cuomo looking ass motherfucker of a GM, whose sexual politics might actually be worse that Rivers’ in simply brushing aside a sexual assault scandal when he was in charge of a junior team. But hey, he hired a woman and bloggers for the front office, and a Candian junior team needs to have a bus accident to avoid having a sexual assault scandal of one form or another, so Kyle Dubas is a beloved figure kind of by default. It’s a goddamn shame that the on-ice product will probably be some of the most watchable hockey in the league, because all of the bullshit around this team is enough to gag anyone whose face isn’t painted blue and white.

’17-’18: 49W-26L-7OT 105PTS 277GF 232GA 24.9%PP 81.4%PK 49.82%CF 9.01%SH .9287SV%

Forwards: Might as well switch up the format and get right to it here, because this was already one of the more stacked groups in the league, and it only got moreso by adding the biggest free agent since the last lockout in erstwhile Islanders captain and hometown boy John Tavares. But while the crowing masses already planning the parade down Yonge St. still love to squawk about Dubas’ being a BRAIN GEANIOUS, he still managed to throw the first ever maximum salary in the form of almost entirely lump sum signing bonuses at Tavares even when it probably wouldn’t have taken that much arm twisting to get him to want to play in his home town with the current roster. That’s not to say it’s not a brilliant contract, as the Leafs are one of maybe like 3 teams in the league that can possibly afford that much out of pocket and it’s tremendous leverage considering that money up front is always preferable for athletic contracts, but there’s no need to pretend like this is some small market coup as the masses did. The resultant flip side of that coin is that dynamic winger William Nylander is still an unsigned restricted free agent, and because most hockey fans are stupid and don’t realize that good players deserve to get paid, the line will likely be that he needs to take less money to keep this grouping together. Nylander still hasn’t reported to camp but he probably will, because nothing remotely interesting happens in these scenarios with the NHL’s boring ass GM’s. But even aside from Nylander, the Leafs have Auston Matthews to essentially be a co #1 center along with Tavares, which leaves the ever cantankerous and productive Nazem Kadri to take over the third/checking line assignment, where he will simply devour bums all season long. Mitch Marner‘s deft play making on the wing will make this top 6 arguably the best in the NHL, but there are still concerns here. For as much as everyone liked to talk shit, and deservedly so about Tyler Bozak‘s role in the Tronna offensive attack, he and the departed James Van Riemsdyk took a combined 98 points with them out the door to the Blues and Flyers respectively. John Tavares’ career high in point output is 86. So while this offense is certainly more dynamic, it might be running in place in terms of actual output, and preventing goals might be the bigger issue.

Defense: Now it gets fun. While Morgan Rielly (spell your name right dickhead) and Jake Gardiner are fine second pairing guys who can do a bit of everything alright, they’re not true #1 defensemen by any stretch of the imagination. Ron Hainsey is now 38 years old and will be asked to play more top 4 minutes. Nikita Zaitsev needs to take a leap beyond being a bum slaying third pairing puck mover, but despite him being only in his third year in the league, he’ll be 27 next month, so at this point he kind of is what he is. Connor Carrick and Travis Dermott don’t really do anything for anyone, so compared to a lot of other groupings even in this division, the Leafs blue line is found wanting.

Goaltending: And here it is, the great undoing. Freddy Andersen probably doesn’t deserve this level of preemptive blame or responsibility, but deserve’s got nothing to do with it. Last year Andersen was completely serviceably average with a .918 overall and a .921 at evens, and proceeded to implode in the playoffs with an .896 in the Leafs’ 7 games of the first round. It’s not the first time Freddy has shat himself in the post-season, as a lifetime ago he sported a .901 in a 7 game Western Conference Final loss to the locals in red and black. “Frederik Andersen” is simply Dutch for “Evgeni Nabakov”- just good enough to break his team’s heart. He’ll be backed up at least to begin with by LOCAL GUY Garrett Sparks, whose 17 games of NHL experience came three years ago when the Leafs were willfully in the toilet trying (and succeeding) to tank for Auston Matthews.

Outlook: It’s a goddamn shame that everything else about this team sucks shit and is wildly irritating, because the process by which this team has been built has been as textbook as anyone could ask for in the modern NHL, and their forward grouping will be healthy if electric. But for all the bouquets thrown his way, Mike Babcock still has his blind spots and will find a way to get tomato cans into the lineup and coach conservatively despite having a trapeze troupe up front. But that may end up serving the team well given the state of things on the back end and in net, which will likely ultimately lead them to a second round out at the latest as other, more balanced teams within their division, specifically Tampa, will find ways to tear through the gaping holes on that blue line.

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Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Manning

By John Pullega September 11, 2018 2193 0

Motherfucker.

Diving into the 2018 free agency pool for defense was never going to go swimmingly for the Blackhawks. Sure, there were rumblings about John Carlson’s availability, but even if he hadn’t re-signed in Washington, paying him $8 million per over a two-term presidency was neither realistic nor wanted, given all the griping we’ve done about Seabrook. Calvin de Haan may have been nice, but he ended up in Carolina for $4.55 million per over four years. Thomas Hickey also could have maybe been a thing, but the 2007 #4 overall pick signed with the Islanders at $2.5 million per over four years. Once those three came off the board, you’d have thought the Hawks would scrape the bucket for a PTO guy like Franson to throw maybe $1 million at.

Instead, the Hawks went out and gave a two-year, $2.25 million per contract to Brandon Manning, a PTO talent at a Thomas Hickey price. ARE YOU HAVING FUN YET?

2017–18 Stats

65 GP – 7 G, 12 A

50 CF%, 45.6 oZS%

Avg. TOI 17:57

A Brief History: First off, fuck this guy. Brandon Manning spent most of his junior career sucking, and in an effort to get noticed, he—in his own fucking words—”fought nine or 10 times that year and stuck up for my teammates and made some big hits.” Jesus Christ bare-assed on the cross, Stan Bowman and Joel Quenneville actually called Brandon Manning and told him, “We need a guy who doesn’t really score and can play physical.” Just keep giving Q the biddy, StanBo, it’s worked so fucking well in the past. Really good start here.

Manning went undrafted before latching on in Philadelphia—a place nothing less than perfect for a booger-eating buffoon whose calling card was protecting grown men on skates from other grown men on skates—in 2012. He spent most of his career with the Flyera doing nothing aside from tripping and breaking the collarbone of Connor McDavid in 2015, allegedly telling McDavid that he hurt him on purpose during a game in 2016, recanting when McDavid talked about it publicly, then getting his ass punched in by the aptly named Patrick Maroon as retribution in 2017. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS SIGNING?

In his first two full years, Manning spent most of his time in the offensive zone not contributing offensively. Last year was a bit different. He spent just 45.6% of his time in the offensive zone but contributed a career high 19 points. He broke exactly even at 50% on the CF% front. That’s somewhat encouraging, especially since he played most of his time next to living ghoul Radko Gudas and his aircraft carrier forehead.

But as we are wont to do, once you dig into the fancier stats, things look less than good. His xGF% (expected goals for percentage) was 48.89, which means that Manning’s opponents were expected to score more often when Manning was on the ice than the Flyera were. The closest Blackhawks comp Manning had in this category was Jordan Oesterle (49.00), who, as we all know, is one of the suckiest sucks who ever sucked on defense.

Further, his Rel xGF% (relative expected goals for percentage) was -2.22, which means Manning brought the likelihood of the Flyera scoring a goal down about 2% while he was on the ice. The closest Blackhawks comp from last year is Jan Rutta (-2.24).

And fuck it, let’s go even deeper, because the Hawks brass obviously couldn’t be bothered, as evidenced by the fact that they signed Brandon Motherfucking Manning. Manning’s HDCF%, which measures the percentage of high-danger chances for vs. high-danger chances against, was 47.31, good for second worst on the Flyera. This means that when Manning was on the ice, opponents were more likely to take shots from high-danger zones. High-danger shots are more likely to become goals. Since Manning himself doesn’t generate offense and apparently isn’t great at suppressing high-danger shots, it would seem that having him on the ice against anything but bottom lines is a recipe for disaster, especially if anyone but Crawford is in net.

So, he’s a combo of Oesterle without the KEEP FIRING ASSHOLES mentality and Rutta. And all this for just $2.25 million a year for two god damn years. Whose loins aren’t frothing?

It Was the Best of Times: Best case, Manning becomes part of a trade package for Erik Karlsson. Or, with contract negotiations for Darnell Nurse reportedly breaking down, they do Hall for Larssen II with Manning for Nurse. Barring those miracles, Manning plays fewer than 10 games because Jokiharju pulls a DeBrincat and makes it impossible not to play him. In the time he does play, Manning puts three or four points up and wins a fight or two, and the Hawks can trade him for something not called Brandon Manning. If he can’t be traded (he can’t), Quenneville shocks us all by learning what a sunk cost is and makes him a consistent healthy scratch.

It Was the BLURST of Times: We cannot stress enough how asinine this signing is. The fact that he was signed at all is a worst-case scenario. But he’s here now, he’s going to play, it’s going to suck, and it’s up to us to imagine how badly it’s going to suck. Worst case, Manning slots with Seabrook on the second pairing, because Manning played Top-4 minutes in the playoffs for the Flyera last year, a series in which Manning tossed a 48.77 CF%, 35.83 xGF%, and a hilarious -14.88 Rel xGF% against the likes of Crosby and Malkin.

StanBo throws his entire dick into his pet theory that Manning has gotten better with age and is on the verge of a breakout. That doesn’t happen, of course, because Brandon Manning sucks and would be better served in the boxing ring having his dome caved in nightly like the palooka he is. He channels his inner John Scott and becomes an insufferable monolith, both on and off the ice. After serving as a $4.5 million paperweight in his two years here, Manning uses his money to buy and close Al’s so he can open a Wawa there.

Prediction: Brandon Manning is the most Tom Smykowski signing the Hawks have had since Jordan Oesterle. He spent most of his career doing much of nothing, couldn’t hack it on a team that started Radko Fucking Gudas with a straight face, then got a seven-figure settlement as Bowman (read: Quenneville) went drunk driving and smashed into him with a HOCKEY REASONS contract.

So, he’ll spend time on the Top 4 with Seabrook. He’ll be an unmitigated disaster at all times and still get looks over Jokiharju and Murphy because HE’S HARD TO PLAY AGAINST. He’ll stumble his way into 10 points and then be considered for an extension. We’ll get all sorts of think pieces about how much his teammates like him, yet none of his teammates will offer that thought without priming from whoever’s in charge of pushing that narrative that day.

Just burn the whole building down.

Previous Player Previews

Cam Ward

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Everything Else

You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Tampa Bay Lightning

By Sam Fels September 10, 2018 2193 0

While all the news of the summer has mostly been focused north of the 49th, because they have nothing else to do in the summer except annoy the rest of us with their offseason bullshit and I mean jesus fucking christ get a second baseball team or something or spend more than three weeks at fucking “cottage” where all you do is drink the same bad beer you always do and complain about what you spend the rest of the year doing before you go back to complaining about it while you do it and yes we actually have mountains and lakes here in the States too can you believe it and you’re not so special so just go back to locking yourself in your basement and drinking your own piss while you make videos that 16-year-old girls love because that’s not creepy at all you fucking dweeb and..

I’m sorry, that got away from me. Let’s start again. Most of the attention this summer has been on the Leafs after signing Tavares, or the continuing descent into hell’s asshole from the Ottawa Senators and their drama(s) with Erik Karlsson, or the simply mystifying, long-standing incompetence and arrogance of the Canadiens. So you’d be forgiven if you forgot how the Atlantic Division actually works.

The class is still located on the west coast of Florida, which isn’t where anything should ever be located but here we are. The Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t gone anywhere, though they may have taken a half-step back by not taking a step forward. Then again, that step forward is probably waiting either in camp or in mid-season, and it could be a very large one. Let’s hop to it.

Goalies: As you’ll see with most of the team, it’s basically the same outfit as last year that they’re just going to run again. Andrei Vasilevskiy put up a Vezina-caliber season, at least to the eye of the ever-vigilant hockey press and their Nick Kyrgios-level of effort on thinking, finishing third for that award after piling up a .920 SV% and a 2.62 GAA. He was also .930 at evens. Those numbers would look better if he hadn’t tailed off in the season’s second half, as he went .916-.916-.883-.900 in January-April, which is worrying. And it wasn’t a much larger workload that got him, because he made 50 appearances in the season before while Ben Bishop was fighting with the various gremlins that live in his soft tissue (I think I saw Soft Tissue Gremlins open for…).

So maybe that should have been a clue that the playoffs were not going to be filled with glitter and strobe lights for him. The first two rounds saw him get the soft-landing of the one-man Devils and the one-line Bruins, and he obliged accordingly by seeing the Lightning through in 10 games total. But the series against the Caps, who were running on high-octane at that point, was a different story. He posted a .901 in that series, with serious disasters in Games 1, 2, and 7. Sure, his first foray into the playoffs as a starter, and he is allowed another try or five. But given the way he faded as the season went along, there should be sharper eyes on him at the start of this season as teams already have the scouting reports from last season’s back end.

Backing him up is Louis Domingue. He’s perfectly serviceable as a backup, but the Bolts are not going to be able to turn to him if Vasilevskiy’s belly-up from last year is a feature and not a bug. If that happens, they’ll be looking outside the organization.

Defense: So the temptation is to label this their weakness. And it is right now. Except that it very well might not look like what it looks like now. Because the rumor is that Erik Karlsson will really only go to Tampa or Vegas via trade. And if this defense adds the best d-man alive, it goes from weakness to sharp pointy thing with lasers.

But until that happens, if it happens, we can only deal with what we have on hand. Outside of Vasilevskiy, the biggest reason the Lightning got punted by the Caps in seven games is that Victor Hedman was awful in that series. And when he’s not dominating play, they Lightning don’t have anyone else who can do that. It was also what bit them in 2015, and that’s when Anton Stralman could actually move. Hedman carried a 45% corsi-percentage that series, and his scoring-chance percentage was even worse.

Now, some of that, even a majority, could be explained that he was dragging around the bloated, buzzard-ransacked, maggot-infested corpse of Dan Girardi around. I don’t know what it’s going to take for people in the game to realize that Girardi has been a nuclear disaster site for about five seasons now, and no amount of dumb faces he makes or grunts he emits are going to change that. He should be nowhere near anyone’s top four, let alone a Cup-contenders. Even Hedman couldn’t save his immobile, dead ass and that should tell you something, And yet…

Ryan McDonagh and Stralman are still here to man the second-pairing, and while the odometer readings are catching up to McDonagh, a second-pairing assignment is still well within his range. If in between buying new silk robes and testing the viscosity of his own spunk, Jon Cooper could figure out to slide Mikhail Sergachev here instead of Stralman, he’d be doing his team a huge favor. At least until Karlsson washes up on the useless St. Petersberg shores.

The third pairing is the aforementioned Sergachev, who will be praying he no longer has to serve out whatever apprenticeship/dungeon-hood Cooper has in his own mind (Note: Cooper has an actual dungeon in his house but it is for very different things) and can be let loose. The broken-and-pie faced Braydon Coburn is somehow still here, even though it’s been unclear what he does other than break his face since 2012. Slater Koekkoek and the dumbfuck way he either spells or pronounces his last name and Jake Dotchin probably fancy their chances of cracking the lineup regularly, especially when Stralman can’t get out of a chair and Girardi and Coburn can’t figure out how to sit in one.

Forwards: The opposite end of the spectrum for the Bolts. They have two perennial MVP-candidates on their top line in Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. They’re perhaps the only team that can claim that, except for maybe Winnipeg. Brayden Point–Ondrej Palat–Tyler Johnson could be the best second line in the league, though the other contender might in the same division with Toronto. The bottom six is littered with solid contributors in Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, Cory Conacher, Cedric Pacquette, and now Andy Andreoff who washed out of LA can play with a team more suited to, y’know, something other than belching and farting their way up and down the ice. 1-12 it’s hard to find a more complete unit in the Eastern Conference. They don’t have the center-depth the Leafs now employ, but this center-depth was enough to pile up 113 points with spotty goaltending for half the season. And we know that Steve Yzerman is going to add something sneaky and productive at the deadline for a song, and not even a good song. Like a Styx or Springsteen song or something (suck it, Killion).

Outlook: They’ll be challenged by the Leafs for the division crown, which means they’d have to negotiate likely the Bruins and then the Leafs to get back where they were (maybe the Panthers). There is more than enough scoring here if everyone stays healthy and just gets to their career norms. A couple guys getting snake-bitten could be a problem, but could be countered by guys having spikes. The defense is a worry, until it gets buffeted by that Swedish dude with the hair. No, the one they don’t already have. The goaltending is a bigger question than anyone is asking though, but thankfully no one else in this division has a definitive answer there either. The conference final certainly is a distinct possibility, and once you’re there pretty much anything can happen. At the same time, Vasilevskiy could be what he showed for the second half and then whatever resources they were going to chuck for Karlsson might have to be used to go get a goalie. Why do I feel like Henrik Lundqvist could end up here?

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Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brent Seabrook

By Adam Hess September 10, 2018 2419 0

While he has one of the worst contracts in hockey, Brent Seabrook showed last season that while he is definitely not worth the ridiculous cap hit (and please lets not think about how long is left on it), he really isn’t bad either.

2017-18 Stats

81 GP – 7 G – 19 A

51.55 CF% – 55.58 oZS%

20:12 Avg. TOI

A Brief History: In a cap league with small revenue (relative to other sports) like the NHL, there are only a few defensemen worth nearly $7-million annually, and Nacho is not one of them. But he can still be useful, if effectively utilized, and Q started to do that a bit more last year. With a 51.55 CF% at 5v5 last year, Seabrook at least kept his team on offense more often than not when he was on the ice. He also started almost 56% of his faceoff-started shifts in the offensive zone, and rightfully so. It doesn’t take a genius to watch Seabrook at this point in his career and see that what’s missing is the legs. That’s a huge problem in today’s NHL if you’re gonna go against top competition. But Seabrook’s vision, passing, and shot have always been better than he got credit for, and last year that became obvious. He can still whip the puck up the ice and make things happen offensively as long as he isn’t getting torched defensively. The vitriol for Seabrook among Hawks fans has ramped up in recent years, and myself and others at this site are probably not without fault in spurring some of that on. But in a 2017-18 that saw Jordan Oesterle play way too many meaningful minutes for this squad, it didn’t become too difficult to start to appreciate what was still left of Seabrook’s game.

It Was the Best of Times: Much like Murphy over the weekend, how good Seabrook can be this season will ultimately come down to the utilization. Seabrook can still flip the ice for you somewhat well against teams’ less potent attackers, so as long as Q doesn’t start sending him out there against the McDavids and Crosbys and players of that ilk, Seabrook still has a decent shot at a solid season, at least within the context of this team. I know that the podcast guys brought up the way Zdeno Chara has been utilized in Boston for a few years now in reference to how Keith can still be effective for the Hawks, but I think the same kind of deployment – against lesser competition, mind you – could be the key to Seabrook still being a fixture for this team. Let him play with Gustafsson or Forsling, someone fast who can jump into the rush while he floats back and just flips the puck back up the ice when necessary, and things should be fine. He should still get some solid PP time so he can still flirt with 25-30 points as well.

It Was the BLURST of Times: In the other reality, Quenneville sees that Seabrook can still do the passing and the shooting well on offense and decides to try to generate that against the McDavids and the Crosbys and players of that ilk. This would be disastrous. The speed is no longer there, and if Seabs is asked to play too many meaningful minutes against too much strong competition, those wheels might just fall off. Even the best scenario here might be overly optimistic due to what Seabrook has left in the tank at this point, so trying to over exert that is certainly going to end up being a terrible idea.

Prediction: Based on what we saw from Q’s usage of Seabrook later in the season last year, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that he starts the season on the bottom pair in a bum-slaying role, as long there are other blue-liners who can find a way to stick out in training camp. You still have the obvious guys above him in Murphy and Keith, and with Gustafsson, Jokiharju, Hillman, Forsling, Rutta, etc. all there as options to make the team as well, Q will have some options at his disposal that he can get creative with to avoid stretching Seabrook too thin. But rest assured, if things don’t immediately go smoothly, Q will go back to what he knows and you will see Seabrook on the ice against players much better than him, and bad things will happen when he does. I still think Seabs gets around 25 points on the season, and if he can be in the 51.5-52.5 CF% range I will be pleased with his season.

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Cam Ward

Connor Murphy

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High On The Hog: Rock City Nights

By Jon Fromi September 10, 2018 1769 0

With the prospects finishing up action in the Traverse City Tournament this week, the time has arrived to get cracking on the developing scene down Rockford way. Opening night for the IceHogs is less than a month away, believe it or not. Who will be skating for the piglets in 2018-19. Let’s see if we can figure that out.

I’m pleased as punch to be bringing you glimpses of the Blackhawks future from my seat at the BMO for another season. Rockford is coming off a memorable post-season run. Like a year ago, the IceHogs look to be filled with young talent that should be interesting to watch nightly.

Once again, don’t look for a lot of grizzled veteran faces under those helmets. Most of the catalysts from the team that reached the AHL’s Western Conference Final are long gone. There are holdovers from that squad, to be sure. That includes a lot of second and third-year players trying to take the next step in their careers.

The coaching staff is intact for another go; head coach Jeremy Colliton earned stellar marks for his efforts in his debut with the Hogs. Colliton is again joined by assistants Derek King (back for his third season in Rockford) and Sheldon Brookbank (year two with the IceHogs).

Colliton emphasized a high-energy game that proved to be exiting to watch. The IceHogs played at a rapid pace and could be counted on to turn in a 60-minute effort. Colliton will be looking to keep moving Hawks prospects toward NHL-level readiness.

With the lower half of Chicago’s roster comprised of inexpensive contracts, it is very likely that several players could yo-yo along I-90 in 2018-19. Looking up and down the organization, I have identified players who could be with Rockford for at least a portion of the campaign.

I could re-hash the feel good season that went down a year hence; I will steer you here instead for all the juicy details. I also re-capped the play of the goalies, defense, and forwards earlier this summer if you want the low down. Pressing onward, let’s see what the roster could resemble in a few weeks.

Forward

Camp Decisions-Viktor Ejdsell, John Hayden, Tyler Sikura, Jordan Schroeder, Andreas Martinsen. Matthew Highmore

The first four names on this list are currently on the Hawks roster (per capfriendly.com). I would imagine that the bottom four or five spots are up for grabs. Some of these forwards will move back and forth with some regularity between Chicago and Rockford.

Schroeder and Martinsen will have to clear waivers at some point to be assigned to Rockford. Depending on any moves made by the organization, most of the players above will don the Hammy Head sweater for a stretch or two.

Ejdsell was very impressive for Rockford in the postseason, while Highmore was the team’s most successful rookie for much of the first half of last year. Martinsen was a steady veteran producer for the Hogs but could find himself in a fourth-line role for Chicago with his size and physical style.

I imagine that Schroeder will be in Rockford more often than not, provided he passes through waivers. You’d think Hayden would be able to stick in Chicago full-time, but like several other Hawks prospects he may come down for seasoning or a confidence boost.

Key Returnees-Luke Johnson, Anthony Louis

Johnson’s second season in Rockford was a decided improvement over his rookie year. He took on a leadership role as well as any of the young guys and nearly doubled his point production. He has the makings of a solid two-way NHL forward and might be ready to fill a bottom-six role with another solid performance for the IceHogs.

Louis was the team’s top scorer (44 points) in the regular season but seemed to take a backseat to the veterans who joined the team in the spring. He’ll begin the season on a scoring line and needs to take advantage of his play-making skills.

Something To Prove-Nathan Noel, Graham Knott, Matheson Iacopelli, Alexandre Fortin

These players need to make a splash early this season if they are to remain in the lineup. For one reason or another, the above foursome left a bit to be desired in their first pro seasons.

Noel’s campaign was derailed by injury and never really got the chance to show what he could do in Rockford. Fortin lacked the finishing ability that could have won him more playing time. Iacopelli had plenty of offensive clout but couldn’t find a consistent spot in the lineup.

Knott, a second-round pick of the Blackhawks in 2015, was a bit underwhelming despite playing 70 games for the IceHogs. He needs to distinguish himself at one area of his game to keep from being passed up by newer talent. Knott captained the prospects at Traverse City: maybe it’s a sign of a better showing for him in 2018-19.

New Faces-Dominik Kahun(?), Jacob Nilsson, Jordan Maletta

For first-year Hogs, this group has a bit of expirience. Kahun comes of of four professional seasons in Germany. He totaled 41 points (12 G, 29 A) in 42 games with EHC Munchen last season. Kahun would have to have a real change of heart to wind up in Rockford. He plans to hold Chicago to a clause that has him returning to Germany if he doesn’t crack the Hawks roster, per Scott Powers of theathletic.com.

The 24-year-old Nilsson played for Colliton in the Swedish Hockey League. Maletta had a decent rookie year with the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters two years ago, then spent most of 2017-18 on the injured list.

Getting Out The Shovel-Marcus Kruger

The way Chicago’s roster is comprised, Kruger still looks to have a part to play. However, maybe a younger player (David Kampf, perhaps) steps into the defensive stopper role Kruger was so good at in the past. Maybe a post-hernia surgery Kruger just isn’t the same player of a few years ago. Maybe the Hawks need a little cap space to facilitate a trade.

It wouldn’t be unheard of for Chicago to get Kruger through waivers and assign him to the IceHogs. After all, Carolina sent him to the AHL last season.

Rockford’s AHL Signees-William Pelletier, Henrik Samuelsson, Terry Broadhurst, Brett Welychka, Radovan Bondra, Connor Moynihan

Three of these players could wind up factoring in heavily to Rockford’s fortunes this season. Most prominent on this list is Pelletier, who was a permanent fixture in Colliton’s lineup in 2017-18.

Pelletier (14 G, 15 A) was second among IceHogs forwards with a plus-13 skater rating. Despite his 5’7″ frame, he had no problem getting into the mix in the corners. His speed was a huge asset that I have to think Colliton will want on the ice as much as possible.

Samuelsson has plenty of AHL experience, as does Broadhurst, who comes aboard for his second tour with the IceHogs. Last season, Broadhurst had 32 points (13 G, 19 A) in 49 games for the Cleveland Monsters.

Bondra, who signed an AHL deal a year ago then missed the bulk of the season to injury, may have an uphill battle getting ice time in Rockford. Bondra, along with Welychka and Moynihan, will spend most of their seasons with the Indy Fuel.

Welychka is 24 and played eight games for Manitoba last spring. The 5’11” center wore a “C” for his Carleton University squad last season, picking up 12 goals and 19 assists in 28 games. Moynihan, 22, has put up nice point totals in the ECHL the past two years, including 41 points (14 G, 27 A) in 48 games with Kalamazoo last season. He was scoreless in an 11 game stint with Utica.

Overall Outlook At Forward

Provided that players like Highmore, Sikura, Johnson and Louis take their games up a notch, coupled with better and healthier seasons from Fortin and Noel, Rockford is perhaps a bit more talented up front than the group that began the 2017-18 season. Quick adjustments to North American rinks by Nilsson and Kahun (if he was convinced to take the assignment) could be a big x-factor for the Hogs.

Defense

A lot of Rockford’s 2017-18 blue line will be elsewhere this fall. Depending on how many defensemen Chicago elects to carry to start the season, Colliton could be using four or five rookies on the back end on a given night.

The defensive corps that propelled the IceHogs deep into the playoffs has been scattered to the winds. Cody Franson? Gone (KHL). Adam Clendening? Gone (Blue Jackets). Viktor Svedberg? Gone (PTO with Calgary).

At this point, I would think Carl Dahlstrom is in the mix for a roster spot in Chicago. Gustav Forsling isn’t due back from surgery until at least November. Robin Norell was loaned out to Djurgårdens IF of the Swedish Hockey League last month.

Introducing…the defense.

The Mentor-Andrew Campbell

The 30-year-old journeyman has ten seasons of professional experience under his belt. Most of that has been spent in AHL rinks with Manchester, Portland, Toronto and Tuscon. He has 43 games played in the NHL, most recently with the Maple Leafs in 2015-16.

Campbell was a part of this summer’s trade of Marian Hossa and all the folks that were included in said deal. His role should be very well defined in Rockford. He will likely spend the entire season helping to raise a full littler of piglets.

He should be well-equipped to handle a leadership role for Colliton. Campbell has worn a C for three different clubs. He isn’t a big offensive threat, though he did have a couple of 20-point seasons for the Marlies a few seasons ago.

Campbell plays a steady game and can use his 6’4″, 207-pound frame in a physical manner when needed. He rarely drops the gloves (13 AHL scraps in ten seasons), but that isn’t a factor considering Rockford did fine without a pugilist last season. I am not analyzing this move from the perspective of Campbell’s usefulness to the Hawks. As an AHL veteran leader, he more that fits the bill.

Back End Holdovers-Carl Dahlstrom, Luc Snuggerud, Darren Raddysh, Gustav Forsling

If Dahlstrom somehow winds up in Rockford for a third full season, good for the Hogs. The way the depth chart looks on defense, however, I don’t see how he doesn’t occupy at least the seventh d-man spot in Chicago. As previously mentioned, Forsling won’t be in action for a few months.

That leaves two Hogs coming off their rookie seasons. Raddysh, who was a regular in the lineup and saw action in the playoffs, and Snuggerud, who wasn’t…and didn’t.

To be fair, Snuggerud was injured for several stretches and did put up 17 points (5 G, 12 A) in the 40 games in which he played. A healthy 2018-19 could see him take on a bigger presence for Rockford.

Raddysh, who earned an NHL entry contract for his efforts last year, and Snuggerud will have competition for playing time, with all the rookies joining the organization.

Rockford Rooks-Joni Tuulola, Dennis Gilbert, Blake Hillman, Lucas Carlsson, Henri Jokiharju

Training camp should reveal if any of these players crack the Hawks roster. For now, I will assume that all five will be in Hogs sweaters come October.

Rockford fans got a look at Tuulola at the close of last season. He also skated in four playoff games for the Hogs.

Gilbert (Notre Dame) and Hillman (Denver) arrive from the college ranks. Carlsson crosses the pond after time in the Swedish Hockey League. Jokiharju put up 71 points (12 G, 59 A) for Portland in juniors; I am laboring under the impression that he is eligible to play AHL hockey despite his age.

Rockford’s AHL Signees-Josh McArdle, Neil Manning

With all the new prospects on defense, Norell was not going to get much in the way of playing time. For the third and final year of his entry contract, Norell will skate in Europe.

There won’t be much room for the two defensemen the Hogs signed, either. Most of their skating will be done in ECHL rinks for the Indy Fuel.

Manning, 27, has two years of pro experience in Italy after a four-year college career at the University of British Columbia.

McArdle, who hails from Rockton, Illinois and skated in the Junior IceHogs program, was signed following his college career. The 24-year-old McArdle was the team captain for Brown last season. It would be fun for the BMO faithful to see him skate a few games for the Hogs, plus he’s a right-handed shot (see below).

Overall Outlook At Defense

Unlike the last few seasons, this is not going to be an experienced group. Nor will there be many right-handed shots (Raddysh and Jokiharju by my count). Young defensemen tend to make mistakes. The positioning and decision-making learning curves will dictate how well Rockford performs on this side of the puck.

Goalie

Here’s where things get interesting. So much of the picture hinges on the availability of Corey Crawford. If, as many speculate, the Hawks number-one net-minder is not ready for training camp, the organizational pecking order is pretty clear, if not entirely settling.

If Crow is ready to roll, the Hogs tandem will be in question.

With Crawford and Cam Ward the planned-upon pair in Chicago, one would wager that Anton Forsberg begins the season with the IceHogs. To do this, he would have to clear waivers.

It would be easy to forecast Collin Delia and Kevin Lankinen as the Hogs goalies heading into the season. If Forsberg winds up in Rockford, however, there are two ways for things to go down:

Rockford carries three goalies on its roster.
Either Delia or Lankinen is sent to Indy for steady playing time.

I guess Chicago could carry three goalies (Crawford, Ward and Forsberg) and the Delia-Lankinen alliance go proceed as scheduled. (Crazy thought: would it be completely insane to think Crawford could be sent to Rockford at some point for a conditioning assignment if he isn’t ready for camp?) That also means that the Hogs would be assigned another player to make room for the extra goalie.

Barring injury or trade, the only sure things I see are Ward with the Hawks and Matt Tomkins (Rockford’s AHL signee) in Indy to man the pipes for the Fuel.

Should Forsberg be assigned to Rockford, the Hogs will have a more-than-capable AHL goalie. That is, so long as his attitude is right following what amounts to a demotion.

Delia could be looking at 40-50 starts in net for the IceHogs if things break his way. Last spring, he was very good. His challenge is to maintain his late-season standards for a full slate of games. Delia is also likely to be fending off higher-percentage shots due in part to a less-experienced defense in front of him. If he can accomplish this, his stock in the organization should continue to rise.

Lankinen, 23, was signed to an entry deal this spring. He posted a 1.33 GAA for HIFK Helisinki in the Finnish Ligua after returning from an injury. The Hogs net could be without at least one veteran presence for the first time in a good while.

Outlook In Goal

With no Michael Leighton or Jeff Glass to lend a steady glove between the pipes, Colliton will need to establish the confidence of both his young goalies. Consistency may be the biggest hurdle for whatever combination of players Rockford showcases in net.

I’ll save my predictions for the season for next month when the roster picture clears up. It’s safe to say that right now, the IceHogs will be a prospect-loaded bunch comparable to last season’s group.

Get yourself ready for my many takes on the happenings in Rockford this season by following me @JonFromi on twitter. I’ll try to keep you abreast of transactions and upcoming opponents throughout the piglets journey through the next eight or nine months.

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You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Ottawa Senators

By Matt McClure September 9, 2018 2234 0

It seems fitting that the Ottawa Senators’ preview would come on the NFL’s opening Sunday, where no one is likely to read this in favor of tabulating fantasy points. Because if anyone even in their own sport were paying attention, or if anyone other than the usual cast of weirdos in the mainstream media gave a fuck about the NHL, how truly terrible this organization has become top to bottom is downright astounding. And it’s going to get a whole fuckload worse before it gets better. Their assistant GM Randy Lee has been fired in the wake of sexual assault charges in Buffalo against a male teenaged hotel employee, their owner Eugene Melnyk is overtly trying to spend as little money as possible in a tank effort, but they can’t even do THAT right as their first round pick in the upcoming draft is going to go to Colorado as part of the Matt Duchene deal, and GM Pierre Dorion had the option at the draft to have it be this year’s instead. Oh, and not to mention that their all universe defenseman is in a walk year, and they had to get pennies on the dollar as the return for Mike Hoffman after his and Erik Karlsson‘s significant others were involved in off ice drama. Not to mention that if they were trying to get to the cap floor, they were absolute fools for not taking on Marian Hoassa’s dead $5+ mildo cap hit against $200K out of pocket, as his $1 million dollar now-illegal salary was 80% insured. It’s an absolute goat fuck on top of a (Canadian) Tire fire.

’17-’18: 28W-43L-11OT 67PTS 221GF 291GA 16.6%PP 76.1%PK 47.20%CF 7.75SH% .9082SV%

Forwards: The aforementioned Duchene is still here in the last year of his deal, as is the productive Mark Stone, and both could bring back a pretty serious yield at some point in the year if Dorion weren’t a complete fucking idiot. Bobby Ryan, aka Bobby Stephenson, son of an attempted murder, has got this year and 3 more left on his ridiculous contract at $7.25 per having failed to even crack 15 goals either of the last two seasons. Keith Tkachuk‘s other Garbage Son Brady was drafted way higher than he needed to be because Brady’s agent is Craig Oster, who is both Brady’s uncle (Keith’s brother in law), and Erik Karlsson’s agent, and will forego the rest of his time at BU to try to make the big club. Past that, the corpses of Marian Gaborik and Mikkel Boedkker are here now, which no one remembers, and Zach Smith (no, the other one) and something called J-G Pageau will still play meaningful minutes in Guy Boucher’s affront to the lord of a trapping system.

Defense: Look, Erik Karlsson is the best defenseman in the world, and will probably command $12-ish million a year, and this team is going nowhere fast. It is literally unfathomable that he has not been traded yet on the eve of training camps opening where his value can be maximized, as every game he wastes for the Senators is one he could be playing for a team that matters in the slightest. And once he’s gone, be it tomorrow, next month, the deadline, or in free agency, the group apart from him is truly dire. Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, and Mark Borowiecki make up the rest of the top 4 here. Yeah, exactly.

Goaltending: Craig “Brett Saberhagen” Anderson has seemingly vacillated between completely solid and truly putrid seasons since he became a regular starter, and last year’s .898 overall and .902 at evens would suggest he’s due for at least a return to competence, but now at 37 that’s nowhere near a sure thing. If he’s at all solid, he could fetch a decent return even with another year left on his deal, but again, don’t count on Pierre Dorion to properly assess that. Mike Condon is slated to back him up in wholly unspectacular fashion.

Outlook: So grim it is utterly pointless, as this team can’t even tank in the hopes of landing Jack Hughes or whoever else is the consensus top pick by the time the draft comes. There is less than zero reason for this team to even exist right now, as they don’t have, and have never anywhere close to a zealous fanbase. A team that should include its team charter and be contracted when Erik Karlsson gets traded. And having lived through the dark ages here, it is not at all hyperbole to state that this team should be contracted. Its continued existence is a fate worse than death.

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You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Montreal Canadiens

By Sam Fels September 8, 2018 2253 0

I wonder if it bothers the NHL that there’s a very good chance that four of the ORIGINAL SIX HARF HARF might seriously be regurgitated foodstuffs this season. The Bruins and Leafs will be good, and then probably play in the first round. If I squint really hard to the point that I prolapse my own asshole (leading to the question, “How would you prolapse someone else’s asshole, dear Samuel?” And I don’t want that answer), maybe the Hawks could find a playoff spot that someone else tossed onto the sidewalk in a fit of pique and shortsightedness. But after going through the Wings on Thursday, I can assure you that the Montreal Canadiens will blow chunks. Their organization and press will still bleat on about how they’re the gold standard, they’ll interview some barely coherent Francophone who was on the third line in 1974 or something, and in French he’ll say the problem is that Max Pacioretty isn’t tough enough. Because the great Habs teams were certainly built on bludgeoning people or something. Why didn’t you let them leave again, Canada? Oh right, access to the smoked meat and strippers. Fair play. Whatever the question is about the Canadiens, the answer up there always seems to be, “Kirk Muller.”

Goalies: Drinky McGoo, otherwise known as Carey Price after he got boring, is once again your starter. Except now he’s ouchy and bad. At least he could be. Price hasn’t managed a full season in three, and last year in 49 games he was objectively awful. Now that could be an aberration, as he just turned 31 and that’s not the time when goalies are supposed to go skunky. Yet considering the workload he’s been carrying since he was 21, as well as carrying the daily mood of an entire province that time, maybe his time has come. We know when he’s on he’s the best in the world. And the Habs need the best in the world if they have any hope of playing a game that means anything past the turn of the year.

If he’s not, the insurance plan is Antti Niemi. Which is basically like having whatever animal in The Flinstones was used to patch things up instead of car insurance. Niemi was good in 17 starts for the Habs last year, with a .929 SV%, in what had to be either the lord’s or the devil’s practical joke on Canadiens fans for their own entertainment. I hope it’s the devil’s, because every fan up there deserves to hear various callers begging for Niemi in November only to see him literally chuck the puck into his own net while falling down like some Cluseau-esque waiter. This is going to happen.

Defense: You know it’s bad when an injury to the already old and fading Shea Weber absolutely cripples your blue line. Welcome to the Habs’ world. They’re going to rock Karl Alzner and Jeff Petry on the top pairing until January. It might not matter how good Price is, because with this blue line he’s going to take off his mask, fold up his jersey, undo his pads, lay them gently down in the crease like The Undertaker and skate off to never come back to hockey again. Victor Mete once had promise, and then Claude Julien beat any sense of self-worth out of him and now he thinks he’s a marmot. How does Jordie Benn still have a job? All he can do is scowl while looking at the forward’s ass no less than four feet in front of him. They better hope Noah Juulsen is the second coming of Larry Robinson… so they can then trade him for whatever other French-Canadian forward who’s good for 38 points they can find in three years. Hey did you know they had Sergachev?

Forwards: It’s basically Max Pacioretty checking his watch every five minutes running out the clock and then a bunch of riff raff. They punted the abused Alex Galchenyuk, the American with the Russian name who was a Canadien, and his fancy collection of mirrors and $1 bills to Arizona for MAGA pudwhack Max Domi and the points he’ll never score. Jonathan Drouin is the top line center simply because you don’t pronounce the last letter of his last name, even though last year pretty much showed he can’t play center. But hey, you can’t have two overhyped left wings, and that’s Domi’s job now! Philip Danault gets to do all of Domi’s skating, though now that he’s actually getting paid it’ll be a couple hours before all the fans hate him even though you don’t have to pronounce the last letter of his last name either. Tomas Plekanec ended up back here because of course he did. The Quebecois will do anything for a turtleneck. Except shower. There is one genuine top-line player on this team and they’re going to trade him at the deadline to the Bruins for whatever Don Sweeney digs out of his ear. Or the Penguins where he’ll score 38 goals in 15 games. Oh sure, there’s Brendan Gallagher‘s Marchand-Lite act, if that does anything for you. It doesn’t, I’ll answer for you.

Outlook: Here’s another team that needs a total overhaul everywhere. The GM was proven a withering dolt at least three years ago, and at this point Claude Julien is outdated. They don’t have a d-man you’d want anything to do with outside of quarantine other than maybe Juulsen and who even knows with him? They even have Xavier Ouellet along for the ride. Remember when he was going to save the Wings? This team probably isn’t as bad as Detroit or Ottawa, as a healthy and focused Price keeps them from that alone. But they’re nowhere near the other four teams in this division, which means they’re exactly where you don’t want to be, hockey purgatory. Maybe they think the league will rig it again so they can have whatever player they want from the QMJHL again, because what you need to succeed in the NHL these days is a kid or two who have played nothing but 8-6 games for three seasons while Pierre McGuire licks the glass behind you.

Fuck this team and organization. Their legacy is utter bullshit. It’s far too wonderful of a place to have a plague like this as its only professional team. Move the Rays there tout suite.

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Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18-’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Connor Murphy

By Adam Hess September 8, 2018 2267 0

If you had Connor Murphy picked as a guy who would end up being the Hawks best defenseman last year, please raise your hand. If you’re lying, please raise your other hand. There should be no one with only one hand in the air. That may be a bit of a contentious statement, though. After being brought into town as the return for StanBo’s not-discussed-with-his-head-coach trade of Niklas Hjalmarsson, Murphy had a bit of an uphill battle in front of him. He had to prove to be worth the Hawks losing one of the best defensemen in team history (not that hot of a take on Hjammer and if you think it is you are wrong) while also serving a coach that saw that defenseman leave without any say in the matter. While he didn’t always pass the Q test, ultimately Murphy showed he can be building block for this team while playing meaningful minutes – if his coach lets him.

2017-18 Stats

76 GP – 2 G – 12 A

53.39 CF% – 49.71 oZS%

16:22 Avg TOI

A Brief History: The Murphy trade was one that was really hard to diagnose at first. For years in the desert it seemed like Murphy was always primed to take the next step but never really did (at least according to scouting reports I’ve seen since his acquisition). He had sky high potential (and in some ways still does) but we know that potential is an ever fickle bitch and she promises nothing. It was a major gamble on Stan’s part to bring him in and trust that he could be your new Seabrook, but his contract is favorable and the fact that he’s an RHD meant that if he ended up even slightly above average it could look fine. Murphy proved to be more than just fine, though with his shot share of 53.39 the 3rd best on the team among players who played at least 30 games. Only future Norris Trophy winner Erik Gustafsson and Michal Kempny (I cry at the mere mention of his name anymore) were above him. That will certainly play. On paper, Murphy doesn’t exactly look like someone you want on your top pair, but given the state of this team’s blue line and Duncan Keith’s descent into a shell of himself, Murphy looks like he could end up being the Hawks best blue liner yet again.

It Was The Best of Times: When you’re talking best-scenarios, there really is no limit to how optimistic you can be, and for a guy like me that’s really hard. “What’s Murphy’s best case scenario?” you ask me, and I say “He suddenly explodes and posts a 60 point season from the blue line and is a Norris candidate.” You should then proceed to look at me like I have four heads. In reality, the best case scenario for Murphy is that we get more of the same from him with slight improvements rather than a step back. He’s never eclipsed 20 points in his career, so even hoping any sort of scoring outbreak is on the horizon is misguided, but it may not be unrealistic to think that with more ice time he may be able to break the 20 barrier, and with some good fortune on his shots he can maybe touch 25. But he is now 25 years old so at this point he is what he is. Oh, and also best case scenario is that Q stops holding the Hjammer trade against Murphy, at least until he’s fired at Thanksgiving.

It Was The BLURST of Times: How extreme do we wanna be here? Obviously an injury would be awful. Basically anything that keeps Murphy out of the lineup will cripple this team like bad knees on a race horse. If Murphy is out, just take the team to the shed with a shotgun. Barring injury, I think the worst possible outcome for Murphy this year is that Q sticks around the whole year and never really trusts Murphy for more than bullshit second and third pair duty. Q will probably have to loosen his tether on Murphy a bit for this team to have any semblance of success early on, at least enough for the team not to fire him before Christmas, but in the event that Q holds Murphy to bottom pair shitwork, somehow this doesn’t crumble around him to the point of losing his job, and he continues to hold Murphy down, that would be bad news. Not necessarily because I just wanna see Murphy play the bigger role, but also because you’re gonna need him to do it for the next 4 years until Boqvist or Jokiharju are ready to do it, and if you can’t even trust him with this blueline, when will you?

Prediction: I’m bad at these parts, but ultimately I think Murphy can have a year similar to last year’s with some slight improvements. I’d say he hovers around 53.7-54 CF%, pots 5 goals, and adds at least 15 assists to get that 20 point mark for the first time ever. I also predict he will end up playing less minutes than Brent Seabrook in way too many games.

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