Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Introducing Our Bears Wing And Training Camp Opening Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1718 0

We threatened you. We warned you. And because no one told us no, we’re going to do it. We’re bringing our madness to the Chicago Bears. Because you know they deserve it. So today, we introduce you to our troika of misfits that are going to take this on: Brian Schmitz, Wes French, and Tony Martin. LET’S KICK THIS PIG!

So with vets reporting today, what are you guys looking for in B0urbonnais, other than no one getting hurt?

Brian Schmitz: I personally cannot wait to see Robbie Gould back in a Bears jersey. Too soon?

Defensively, I want to see how how well the players transition from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano. The Bears are so talented on defense that a lot a alignment and assignment mistakes will be covered up by pure athleticism.  Offensively, I can’t wait to see who is the first reporter to declare what a great camp Adam Shaheen is having. I’m also excited to see if a healthy Anthony Miller will get more looks. This guy has the skills to be a #1.
Tony Martin: I’m with you on Anthony Miller. Dude is a beast, and I think if he recovers from his shoulder injury he could be a dominant wideout. 

I’m actually interested in seeing if any major names don’t make the team as the Bears start looking towards future salary cap constraints. If Danny Trevathan gets cut I’d be shocked, but if Taylor Gabriel were to be released I wouldn’t be nearly as blown away.  I’m super interested in seeing if Kerrith Whyte Jr makes the squad and how he’d be used. If some of these draft picks pan out, the Bears offense could look like a Madden playbook I created while high at 3am, with like spread formations with  four running backs and a tight end on the field.
Brian: Trey Burton is another guy who needs to have a good pre-season. The organization isn’t exactly happy with the way he ended last season and at this point, it’s more than fair to label him as unreliable and soft.
Tony: I think Burton is the most likely candidate to win “Starter from last year who is cut this year”, but that also implies Shaheen has a good preseason, which isn’t a given. 

So, does Matt Nagy take the next step and open up even more of the playbook this year? I’m all in, let’s get weird. If Akiem Hicks is running for touchdowns in year one, what sort of bananas shit can we expect to see?  Calling it now: Khalil Mack catches a touchdown this year, from someone who isn’t Mitch Trubisky. You heard it here first.
Wes French: I’ll start on defense, where I agree I’m interested to see the shift from Fangio to Pagano, but I want to see if anyone slips/steps up under the new boss. Will we see Roquan Smith become the defensive centerpiece/signal caller he was at Georgia or will that take another season or so under a new coordinator? Quan seemed pretty well ready to take over the defense late last year…Was Vic a “whisperer” to any major contributors to the defense that could fall off under the new boss? Will anyone clash with Pagano/his style? I think we’ll get that answer sooner than later with how camp starts on that side of the ball.  

Count me as the third amigo/musketeer/likely dipshit that’s beyond sold on Anthony Miller as a sure star. Get him the ball, do it often…but will there be enough touches to go around? I also agree Nagy and Co. will get weirder (in the best way) this year, and the guy I am most intrigued by is Corderelle Patterson. He lined up at RB for half his touches in Foxboro and I have to think the versatility is going to bring some funky ass sets this year. 3 RB/2TE? 2RB/3 TE? I can guarantee you that man will be in motion pre-snap basically every time he’s on the field. 
The biggest question about the myriad options with the personnel and playbook is at the center of it all: Mitch. They made the playoffs last year with their signal caller playing WILDLY inconsistent. How, and more importantly if, Mitch has progressed with a full year/offseason under Nagy’s watch is going to be the real driver of this campaign. All the fun that they draw up won’t matter if Mitch keeps sailing balls to wide open targets or missing open reads. I love me some Mitch, but this is a massive year for him and his GM that staked his reputation on Trubs tapping that potential of his.
Brian: I’m honesty glad and proud of each of you for not mentioning the placekicking situation in your early emails. Thank you for that. It’s such an overblown and ridiculous storyline that lazy ass media members continue to talk about only because it’s low hanging fruit and requires no prep work or research.

We are all in agreement that Nagy will continue to get creative in the regular season. Are we also in agreement that he will continue to shit down his leg in the playoffs and choke games away? Asking for a friend.
Tony: Yeah, the kicking game is not really much of a concern for me, it’s literally a meme at this point. Thanks a lot, Cris Collinsworth. Does the lack of a solid kicker worry me? Of course it does, but there’s plenty of time to see who does well this preseason both in Bourbonnais and in other camps and bring them in. 

I’ll also go on the record saying the one downside to having a team that people want to watch on prime time is how many times I’m gonna have to hear Collinsworth or Joe Buck call a game. I’m so used to Fox’s C-level announce team that I want Kenny Albert to do the play by play at my funeral. 
As for Nagy, I think having the ability to use more of his playbook will be a good thing. That “next step” phase that we’re all looking to from Mitch also needs to apply to play calling. Sometimes on 3rd and 3 you need to be able to feel confident in your teams ability to get those yards without having to resort to some play that looks like a deleted scene from Little Giants. I’m not that old school meatball fan who screams about running the ball up the middle the entire time, but I think the offense is good enough to not need to run a triple option to pick up a crucial first down. 
You guys have mentioned a few guys on offense you’re watching closely, and you’ve mentioned Pagano as well. Is there a player on defense you’ll be watching closely, either for a breakout season indications or possibly be a surprise demotion or cut?
Brian: The Bears thought enough of John Franklin III to bring him back again this year. This guy is arguably the most athletic player on the roster and is trying to make the transition from a lifelong quarterback to a DB – to make this position change at the NFL level, you have to be special, and I believe the organization thinks he is. Depending how impressive he is in camp, he could, at the very least provide some insurance for the old and oft-injured Prince Amukamara; and at best, be a value replacement for the 30-year-old who, while having a solid season in 2018, has been on the downside of his career for a while now.
Wes: Whoa, hey, I wanted to get in on the kicker talk since it’s all anyone seemed to care about in the Spring! Not really, I think it’s pretty embarrassing that the mini camp was basically devoted to coming up with wild scenarios for guys to kick meaningless FGs in. They’ll have some rookie or camp cut rookie/vet and that’ll be that. I won’t be shocked if they burn through a couple kickers by seasons end. I can’t help but notice no one has mentioned the new backfield savior, David Montgomery, either. Maybe we’re already tired of hearing about how great his character is and what a steal he’s set to be. To me this screams of future disappointment, but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

I’m watching the defensive backfield closer than other position groups at camp. Pagano made his money coaching up the Ravens secondary through their years of dominance and I’m interested to see how everything settles with the DBs. That’s the only group that sees new faces in starting roles, so the easy answer is will Buster Skrine/Ha Ha Clinton-Dix come in and keep the status quo or better, or will we see some troubles early on replacing the stud nickel Bryce Callahan and the under appreciated Adrian Amos? The Skrine signing was met with some raised eyebrows and Ha Ha is already on the PUP so we’re off to a very Chicago sports start on that front. 
An individual I’m keying on is probably in direct competition with your boy J Franks the 3rd – Stephen Denmark. If you’re not familiar with the 2019 7th Rd pick, he’s got a pretty winding path to the DB group as well. Denmark is quite new to the defensive backfield, having lined up only one season there at Valdosta St. after playing wide out his whole career prior, with a lot to be desired. You won’t find many 6’3″ Corners around the league, and there’s no guarantee that Denmark sticks there, but he’s got the bloodline (father, three brothers all played some level of D1 college or pros) and the athleticism to make a stand out impression, be it at corner or safety. I’d guess the Bears try to stash him on the practice squad and develop him for the year, but if he shows the kind of promise discussed out of the draft the vultures could circle to pluck him off the squad. 
I’m going to add a player on offense here as well because I’m five hours behind on vacation and feel a bit left out, and there’s nothing you can do about it, Fels (besides edit it out and make this all just wasted time). Riley Ridley seemed like a guy that should not have been around in the late 4th Rd, but there he was and the Bears made him a luxury pick given what they’ve spent on the WR position in the last two seasons. I believe he’s well worth it, though, as an elite route runner dropped into a system predicated on receivers being in the right spot, every time. Someone up there mentioned Taylor Gabriel as a possible shocking, albeit mildly, cut. Thanks to our friends at Over The Cap you’ll see that cutting Gabriel now would have zero cap savings and $6.5M in dead money, but say another team thin at the position or sees a string of camp injuries at wideout and a trade for a future pick materializes. Trading Gabriel is much more palatable with a little under $2M in dead money against almost $6M in cap savings. If the WR room gets crowded this Fall because Ridley, Miller and any one of the many WR fighting for special teams reps force the issue, I’d look for Gabriel to get dealt on the cheap before anyone gets outright cut. 
Tony: I could see Gabriel as trade bait, for sure. In terms of next steps being taken, Bilal Nichols is going to be a beast this year. I don’t see Jonathan Bullard breaking out, but I think this year finds Nichols and Roy Robertson-Harris stepping up in a big way. 

The David Montgomery hype is getting to me, tbh. Let’s see this man suit up and play before he’s anointed the next great Bears RB, ya know? He has to learn the offense, and his scouting report via PFF lists his receiving ability as a weakness, something that might limit his snap count. 
At the end of the day, I’m interested in what sort of formation/personnel wrinkles we’ll see in the new defense. Is Pagano going to consistently use his front 3/4 to generate pressure, or is he going to utilize the greatest buzzword in all of football: “exotic blitzes”. Is Eddie Jackson going to be asked to continue to roam the middle of the field and read the QB, or will he have less freedom in this new system? There’s no doubt that Bryce Callahan is a beast at nickel corner in a Vic Fangio defense, can we even be sure Chuck Pagano will ask Buster Skrine to do something similar? The fit between scheme and player was ideal last year, and I’m hoping this year is more of the same. I think Ha Ha will play well and earn that multi year deal somewhere else next year. 
Baseball

James McCann’s Luck Has Run Out

By Adam Hess 1520 0

James McCann’s hot start to this season was easily one of the biggest surprises in the baseball world. He was, well, bad in his first few years in Detroit, never posting a wRC+ better than 95 and never quite adding much defensive value as a catcher either. Most teams will deal with a sub-par bat behind the plate if you can at least be a good framer and/or have a strong arm to control the run game, but if you’re not bringing any of that to the table, you have very little value to the team, even as a backup.

Quite honestly, McCann hasn’t brought much to the table in the framing or strong arm regards this year for the White Sox, either. He ranks 27th in MLB in average pop time, which has him in the 22nd percentile, and he is in the 14th percentile among catchers in framing, per Baseball Savant. There are plenty of good thoughts out there about how valuable framing actually is when we know that by and large umpires are just terrible at their jobs, but it’s still pretty easy to tell who is and isn’t good at it, and McCann is not.

However, the Sox haven’t exactly needed him to be that good at it because he has handled the pitching staff very well, and by “pitching staff” I of course mean Lucas Giolito. While it would unfair to Gio to attribute too much of his 2019 success to McCann, Giolito himself has lauded the catcher for his game planning and preparation, and all of that has certainly helped accentuate (you didn’t know I knew words like that, did ya) all of the mechanical adjustments Giolito made over the offseason to help turn him into the ace-level pitcher he has been this season.

And oh yeah, McCann was smacking the shit out of the ball, which certainly made it all worth it.

McCann’s offensive epiphany was certainly surprising but welcome in a lineup that, on opening day at least, didn’t figure to have more than three or four above average hitters, and that was assuming that Moncada and Anderson progressed (which happened) and Eloy’s natural hitting followed him (which took a month, but also has kinda happened). It was really nice to have a reliable bat that you could slot into the middle of the order and feel comfortable, and nobody in the world thought McCann would be that until it was actually happening. He was seemingly hitting everything, and felt especially reliable in clutch moments. And while I certainly enjoyed it, I always felt like I was waiting for the other shoe to drop.

By “shoe” I mean BABIP. Which until mid-June was over .400, but even when it eventually dipped below that mark on June 14 (if I used FanGraphs’ splits tool correctly) had already been steadily declining. In fact, it dropped quite quick in June, falling from .432 June 1 to .390 on June 14 (but rebounded to a .403 at the end of the month) and now sits at .383.

So, he had been getting very lucky at the beginning of the year, and in a lot of ways that was the source of his outbreak. But that luck at the plate lately has run out. Since the beginning of June he is slashing .241/.310/.447 with a wRC+ of 99, and his BABIP is a much more normal .325. All of that is fine. July is…. ugly.

Since July 1, he’s slashing .197/.234/.377 for a wRC+ of 58, and since coming back from the All-Star Break he is an abysmal .150/.190/.375 with a wRC+ of 42. However, his BABIP in July is just .290 and since the All-Star Break it’s (avert your eyes) .167. So he has been ridiculously unlucky of late, and the results have accordingly looked like Fels on the Monday after an all weekend bender (I have never actually seen what that looks like but I can only assume it’s not pretty) (You’re fired. – ED).

But the big concern is that when look back at his career, a .290 BABIP is actually not an indication of bad luck. In fact, it’d be on the higher end of McCann’s past numbers. In Detroit from 2014-2018 his BABIPs were .300 (in nine games), .325, .283, .300, and .282. That is certainly troublesome when you consider that his season line is currently at .383, meaning there is potential for some serious correction on the way and he could be in for a truly terrible second half.

Or to be a bit less rosy about it, we might be about to see the real James McCann stand up.

There are a lot of questions that are to be raised from this exercise, none of which I have actual answers to. Primarily, as I just referenced, I am curious if the first half had anything real in it that he can build on, or if it was built entirely on luck. There is also a good chance part of this is the result of playing so damn much, as he’s been in 72 of the Sox 99 games this year and caught 66 of them.

In the end, the 2019 season means very little to the White Sox outside of the most important players playing well, so if McCann struggles in the second half it won’t be that big of a deal, it will just make them less fun to watch. But 2020 figures to be very important for this organization, and as such we need to know what McCann is. He’s worth keeping for 2020 if only for Lucas Giolito, and hopefully Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease can have similar success.

The one conclusion I do draw from all of this, though, is that the White Sox should not head into this offseason assuming McCann is their primary catcher next year. More specifically, they should not let McCann’s presence on this roster preclude them from potentially being interested in a guy like Yasmani Grandal. McCann is a good catcher because of his prep work, but if the bat isn’t at least close to average, the glove and arm don’t do much for you either, and he’s back to backup status.

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Lose 2 of 3 To Miami: Mad World

By Andy Jonathan 1276 0

BOX SCORES:

Game 1: White Sox 9 – Marlins 1

Game 2: White Sox 1 – Marlins 5

Game 3: White Sox 0 – Marlins 2

 

This series loss, possibly more than any other series loss this entire season really fucking grinds my gears.  It’s a prime example why this front office, and to a lesser extent Rick Renteria, are taking what could be a very fun Sox team and grinding it into the dust.  On top of that, you’ve got Steve Stone on Twitter telling us we should all just be happy and enjoy the fact that semi-professional baseball is being played on the South Side.  We should just be happy that instead of bringing up prospects that could potentially benefit from major league experience we get castoffs like AJ Reed.  Instead of signing players in the offseason that could potentially make this product emminently more watchable, we should be happy we get to watch Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso.  I understand that Eloy and Tim are hurt, but REAL MLB teams are able to replace guys like that with players that can at least keep the team afloat.  Instead we get more of the Reed/Engel/Castillo Triangle Of Death.  To quote Lou Brown from Major League, “I’m sick of this nickel and dime shit!”

 

FUCKING BULLETS

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

-On the plus side, both Ivan Nova and Reynaldo Lopez continue their quest to redefine their seasons.  Lopez in particular has gone from “Nickleback Greatest Hits Album” down to about “Mumford And Sons Unreleased Tracks” in terms of quality (Hey, it’s MY sliding scale).  Granted, their 2 performances were against one of the more pathetic starting lineups in the league, but that’s what big league pitching is supposed to do.  Lopez didn’t benefit as much as Zac Gallen did from HP Umpire Ryan Additon’s expanded strike zone, and did most of his work up in the zone where his fastball can do the most damage.  Nova mildly impressed me in going the distance Monday night, but still only threw about 63% of his 112 pitches for strikes.

-Dylan Covey is not a starting pitcher, and trying a fucking 6 man rotation to keep hammering this square-assed peg into the round hole is only going to make his ERA worse.  He very clearly could be the beneficiary of an opener, but Renteria and Hahn are being insanely stubborn about this, and I just don’t fucking get it.

-Jose Abreu looks like he’s pressing right now, and if I were him and saw the collection of stiffs my coach packed around me in the lineup I’d be pressing too.  Every time I see AJ Reed step in the batters box I just think he’s one bad haircut away from becoming Guy Fieri Redux.  Except the real Fieri would have a better chance of taking a slider to Flavortown, if you know what I mean.

-Renteria’s lineup construction is approaching 4D chess levels of confusion.  Tuesday night the Marlins started Caleb Smith, who is far and away their best starter and also left handed.  I know that McCann needs a break now and again, but instead of giving it to him tonight, against Gallen the righty, he did it against Smith.  Who did he start instead of McCann at DH?  Guy Fieri Jr, who’s a fucking lefty.  Who’s splits against lefties are trash.  Who he himself is pretty much trash, since that’s where the Astros put him.

-Yoan Moncada is still batting .300 with an .882 OPS at the end of July.  Hell Yeah.  (He still shouldn’t be batting cleanup, but whatever)

-I’m not totally sold on Ryan Goins right now, but I’d rather watch him than Jose Rondon.  He’s not gonna make me forget that Tim Anderson left on his rehab stint today and should be back in a week.  Yay!

-That’s about all I wanna say about this shitty series.  It’s 2:30 in the morning and I still wanna punch my computer screen.  The Twins are next, and if the lineup looks anything like it did Tuesday and Wednesday, get ready for a long fucking weekend.

 

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Lose Two Of Three Vs. Giants: You Can’t Live With The Anal Horseshoe

By Sam Fels 1154 0

Game 1 Box Score: Giants 5, Cubs 4

Game 2 Box Score: Giants 5, Cubs 4 (13)

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 4, Giants 1

It’s hypocritical after I got emotional after last night’s loss, and there was nearly a hole in my wall to prove it, but sometimes you run into a team that’s got a horseshoe up its ass for a period of time and there’s little you can do. Yeah, four runs isn’t a ton, but it’s also not a pittance. Really, as I went over in the Strop piece yesterday, one killing rally was started by Pablo Sandoval ripping a ball off his shoelaces, and another was ended by him doing the same. What do you do about that? You can rant and rave about more runs, and especially last night the Cubs probably should have found one more, but sometimes you’re dealing with forces beyond your capability. At least that’s what I’m hoping.

The Two Obs

-I’m going to motherfuck Alex Mills into a major league career. That change-up certainly plays at a major league level, but he’ll have to locate his fastball a little better because it’s not hard enough to not get killed when he misses with it (there’s a lot of negatives for you). Still, let’s all hope that’s his last start of the season.

-Am I living in a world where I have to accept Kyle Ryan is effective? His ground-ball rate since June 1 is in the high 60s, which is pretty obscene. These days with the pen, maybe it’s best to not ask too many questions because generally you’re not going to want the answers.

-Perhaps the main headline out of the series is that the Cubs finally punted Addison Russell’s ass back to the corn. Russell himself left them with no choice, or made his position untenable, not only through his play but also by admitting to being careless and rock stupid. I’m not sure the front office cares what the fans think, but I’m sure there were some curious looks from teammates when they read or heard the quotes about Russell not knowing or not following the signs. I’m going to guess they all know them.

All of it is an endorsement for Robel Garcia, who runs the risk of getting found out but can at least hit the ball damn hard. The defense is always going to be questionable, but for a third of the season you might be able to mitigate a good chunk of that through positioning. Hell, it’s what the Brewers did last year.

-I’m going to guess Bryant’s knee-knack isn’t that serious given the way he was paddling the ball all over the field this series.

-Almora had a homer today, and it would be nearly impossible for him to see Russell’s demotion and think he’s immune. He is hitting worse after all. I don’t know if Albert can save himself, and I don’t know that he will even be a Cub this time next week. It feels like he’s gotten pull-happy, but he doesn’t have the opposite field power of some, so I don’t know that being content dumping singles over the second baseman’s head is going to be sufficient.

-It’s just a touch infuriating to watch Chatwood gas the Giants with 97 MPH for four innings and wonder why he can’t ever get in a game. Yes, we know about how the control can go, but that’s not going to get better with use twice a month. Again, at least once a week Chatwood should be carrying multiple innings to save everyone else from exposure. I don’t know what’s so hard about this, but it clearly has never crossed Joe’s mind.

So the first part didn’t go as planned, but basically by coin flip. The Cubs still suck on the road, but now there’s no choice but to turn it up. The Brewers are vulnerable at the moment, and it’s time to stomp some goddamn authority or stop pretending you’re the class of the division. Let’s fucking go. Chimi-fucking-changas.

Onwards…

 

 

Hockey

Would Signing Jake Gardiner Actually Have Made Sense Now?

By Sam Fels 1770 0

When you’e watching Olli Maatta excel at the Chris Hudson trail technique behind Mikko Rantanen streaking to the net for his second of the night in January, you’re going to know the answer to this question more than you ever did.

When free agency started, Jake Gardiner was a no-go. We figured he would be too expensive and have to sign for too many years for what was only ok to good production. There were bigger fish (though he re-signed in San Jose), there were cheaper fits (the Hawks found them), and he didn’t seem to provide enough of what the Hawks needed, though some, for the expected investment.

But after the Hawks acquired Maatta and Calvin de Haan, which ups maybe only their professional experience and none of the mobility and skill problems, one has to ask if the Hawks wouldn’t have been better off waiting out the market on Gardiner.

That’s also completely unfair, because very few if any thought Gardiner would be left twisting in the wind. This isn’t baseball, where everyone now knows teams are just going to wait and wait and you can kind of set your price on the player you want and simply tap your foot and look at your watch until they accept it. Most business is done on July 1 (and before), and so if most teams expected Gardiner to sign on that day, it’s understandable.

Gardiner made $4M last year, and is probably still looking in the range of $6M or more to get pen to paper. That’s more than the Hawks have space for, though if they’d left Maatta alone they’d be right there. And Gardiner would come with something that Maatta or de Haan or really anyone on the roster right now cannot provide. That’s the first pass to the forwards, and the ability to open himself up to do so.

Gardiner has a 34-assist and 47-assist season to his name, and was on that pace again this past season but missed 20 games through injury. No, he’s not a top-pairing guy, but he has discernible skillset, which is more than we can say for Maatta. He’s been above the team rate in possession and expected-goals the last three years, and that was for some go-go Leafs teams. One would hope the Hawks would like to score lots of goals too.

Is it possible now? No, pretty much not. The Hawks would have to jettison Murphy on the blue line to make it work financially, and that would just be running place. Could they try and wheel Maatta out of town? Doesn’t seem like it’s in the plans, though you’ll be wishing it was soon enough.

Even if the market continued to drop on Gardiner, whatever spot you’d dream up for him probably should go to Boqvist with the cheaper rate, less years, better wheels, obviously more skill, even with the bigger questions. But hey, plans change, just as they did when the Hawks went with the impulse buy on Robin Lehner. But that was late in the day on July 1. Gardiner still wasn’t signed. Was that the call they should have made?

Again, we’ll lament this after trail-technique.

Baseball

Calling Up Ian Happ Now Is How We Got Here In The First Place

By Sam Fels 1496 0

I understand where the sentiment comes from. When you’re watching Albert Almora perform some modern performance art interpretation of sadness at the plate these days, or Daniel Descalso do anything, or Addison Russell even exist, you can’t help but turn your lonely eyes to Ian Happ’s numbers lately and think, “Well that has to be worth a try.” And maybe that troika has been so god awful that any player showing any spasm of being able to make contact is worth a look. Fuck, that’s how Robel Garcia got here, and he might just be David Bote II (Electric Bugaloo) but at least something might happen when he’s at the plate.

And of late, Happ has been hitting. In July in Iowa, he’s slashing .314/.442/.614. That’s pretty tantalizing. You are forgiven for thinking it’s enough. After all, Almora has shown he might not be a major league hitter at all, and Russell is right behind him. You figure neither would be able to produce a hot three weeks in AAA either. So Happ has to be better. And by all reports he hasn’t accidentally strangled himself in the field, so…

The truth is for all of them, an itchy trigger finger is (at least partially) to blame for their struggles in the majors.

In Happ’s case, his ascension to Wrigley came after only one hot month in AAA in 2017. 28 games, after a slightly above average half-season in AA. And it worked out in 2017 ok, at least for part of it, as Happ was able to hit for enough power to cover up his Ks. And overall, he was just a tick above average last year, but we know the second half was truly ugly. There wasn’t much of a base to fall back on, which was part of the point of sending him down this year. To build that base. Does two and a half weeks count as enough? Sure, the clock is ticking and with the deadline just a week away, the Cubs have basically shuttered any window Happ might have had to prove he was an answer. Thing is, Happ shuttered it too by waiting until July to hit AAA pitching with the same golf balls they’re using at the top level.

You can keep going on this list. Almora never hit in the minors. His one “dominant” stretch was at single-A for a half season. He didn’t dominate at AA or AAA, and when he was called up in ’16 we were told it was basically for his glove. And then he just stayed, trying to build his bat at the major league level. You can see how that’s working out as you try and suffocate yourself in your work lunch.

Russell’s track record in the minors was a little better, but again his ascension to the majors was built more on rep than production. Setting aside the fact that he’s a scumshithead for a moment, Russell did surge offensively at AA for both Oakland’s and Chicago’s system. That was after murdering high-A in 2013. But his Double-A work was only for half of a minor league season because of injury. He played 11 games in AAA before being called up, again mostly for his glove opposite Starlin Castro, which eventually ended up being on both sides. Another example of a player being asked to do most of his learning curve at the major league level, and Russel has never produced an above-average offensive season as a Cub. And he’s way far from it now.

You could throw Schwarber on this list too if you were inclined. But Schwarber absolutely mauled AA in a way that the other three never came close to. But he still only got 17 games at AAA in ’15 before being called up, and his struggles in his first full season in ’17 could be partially attributed to a simple lack of reps at lower levels. Even his much famed demotion in ’17 lasted 11 games, and he’s at least been average offensively since, but nothing like what he flashed. Was the rush to blame?

Even with Happ’s hot three weeks, that’s still less than two months of success at the AAA level total. Time is of the essence for the Cubs, we know that, but is sweeping up Happ in that again going to give you a better answer? At worst right now he’s a September supplement who would still have a month to carve himself out playing time, even if it’s just against lefties (which he’s been better against in Iowa as well).

And right now, that feels like the best case scenario for him, especially if the Cubs make a move for a bat in the next week. Otherwise, you’d have to call him up, with the team’s playoff hopes hinging on him and a base of just one good month in Iowa. Doesn’t seem like enough.

Hockey

If Lucic And Neal Can Be Traded…

By Sam Fels 2077 0

It is kind of amazing that in the NHL, that no matter how stupid and bad a contract, it always ends up getting moved somehow. We just saw it last week when the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers, adding a level of farce to their longstanding rivalry, decided to swap headaches in Milan Lucic and James Neal. We’ve seen Patrick Marleau moved along this year, though his deal was only for three years and only turned bad for one. The list goes on for a bit, though it generally ends with someone being LTIR’d into death.

Still, it was harder to find worse deals than Milan Lucic’s and James Neal’s. If you’re the Oilers, you must be delighted, because there’s a small chance that at least for a season or two, Neal can just stand still and shoot and get you 15-20 goals. He shot just 5% last year, which is less than half of his career mark, and again, if he does nothing else that should rebound. He might get buried possession-wise, he might cost you more goals that way, but at least they can point to something and say, “Well he’s doing something. Is that oaf we traded for him?”

As for the Flames, they can…well I haven’t any idea what they can do. It’s just an inexplicable decision from them, especially for a team that got exposed as not fast enough when Nathan MacKinnon Sherman March’d their ass to the golf course over five games.

But it leads one to ask, if these two contracts can be moved, could Brent Seabrook’s?

No. No it can’t. And the differences are why.

For one, there’s a difference from having $5.2M and $5.7M on your deal, as Lucic and Neal do, and fucking $6.8M on it (you’d think I’d have developed some sort of mental scar tissue to protect myself when reading or writing that, but no, still wince and get queasy every time). Second, Seabrook was 32 when this public health crisis kicked in, and Lucic and Neal signed their deals either at 30 or even younger, when they were at least somewhere near whatever their “prime” was. Both Neal and Lucic are now 31, which is a hell of a lot different than 34 in hockey, as Seabrook is. Seabrook also has five years left on his, whereas Neal and Lucic only have four. So not only did he sign it older, it takes him to an older age.

But most of all, the Hawks haven’t poisoned the water around Seabrook, even if that is an underhanded tactic when done on purpose. Neal was a healthy scratch for the Flames in the playoffs for a game. He was scratched a few times during the season. He was deployed on the third and fourth lines. The same applies for Lucic. He has been healthy scratched, demoted to the fourth line and back again.

In both cases, the teams made it clear those players no longer had a fit on their teams. While still collecting a big check, these are still proud athletes with little wish to be on a team where it’s clear they weren’t wanted or would not be used. In Neal’s case more so, he still feels like he can contribute. After all, he’s only a season removed from being a 25-goal scorer on a Cup finalist. He didn’t feel the need to clean up whatever scraps Bill Peters deigns to toss off the table to him.

The Hawks have done no such thing to Seabrook. He’s only been healthy scratched once in the last two seasons, and that was by Joel Quenneville who’s no longer here. In fact, they’ve bent over backwards in some cases to make sure he doesn’t turn on their new an very fragile coach (or the coach’s very fragile hold on the team, to be more accurate). Seabrook has rarely lost playing time, still getting time with Duncan Keith and taking the top assignments at various points. It was only this past season that Seabrook’s average ice time dipped below 20 minutes per game, even though his play warranted that for a couple seasons, and even then it was still 19:04. At worst, that’s solidly second-pairing minutes. Among the d-men it ranked fourth behind Keith, Gustafsson, and Murphy.

Hell, the Hawks just moved out a kid who reasonably should have been taking most if not all his minutes to avoid upsetting the applecart…er, nacho-cart. Considering he was punted for nothing (GET THAT TASTE OUT YO MOUF, FEATHER!), if Jokiharju’s value was so low a properly run organization not still trying to cash in on nostalgia would have let him play on the third pairing all season if only to build his trade value.

So Seabrook hasn’t lost any playing time or influence, so why should he agitate for a move? Every mistake in the NHL gets cleared up somehow, but the Hawks haven’t really prepared the ground for that. He still gets to play, and he still gets power play time, and he still gets to feel like he wields the axe in the dressing room and organizationally, because he does. Brent Seabrook can get their coach fired if he wants, and if they fire that coach then you’d have to believe the GM has to go to, which might mean the president does as well, and it could be a total house-cleaning.

Perhaps this is only for another season. Perhaps Ian Mitchell and Adam Boqvist force the Hawks into some tough discussions and decisions, and Seabrook can only handle the pressbox for so long. Maybe they figure out something with retirement, who knows? But seeing those two contracts moved, you wonder if the Hawks couldn’t as well if they really wanted to.

Baseball

A Different Kind Of Deadline

By Sam Fels 1726 0

A week out from baseball’s one deadline to end them all, and the White Sox are in a different position than they have been. Last year and the year before, it was about shedding anything that wasn’t nailed down, and there was barely anything permanent on the roster. Though Rick Hahn has made his major moves in the offseason, he has cashed in on Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, Melky Cabrera, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, and Xavier Cedeno in the middle of a season the past two years. The level of activity figures to be less this time around.

Most of the focus will be on the Sox bullpen, where Alex Colome, Aaron Bummer, and Jace Fry are all candidates to be dealt. The Sox have made noise about keeping any or all three, especially Colome, who has another year of arbitration left and figures to be affordable no matter what he gets through that route in the winter.

Still, the bounty on Colome and Bummer could be higher than normal, simply because of Will Smith. Only one team is going to get him out of the plethora (up to 12, reportedly), seeking him. Which means a bunch of teams are going to be desperate to keep up with the Joneses and get their own pitcher who has succeeded in the late innings this year. Bummer has the added bonus of being left-handed, which like every year is found gold (See you tomorrow, Mr. Pocket!). A team watching Smith go to a direct competitor might convince itself of the absolute must-have Bummer is after that.

The Sox will tell you that they can be competitive as soon as next year, assuming something close to full health from Jimenez, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu, and McCann in the lineup and the rotation manages to somehow stay in one piece (all of this together seems like huge ask at the moment, but that’s life). And along with that, they’ll need someone to preserve leads and ties in 8th and 9th innings, and Bummer and Colome have already proven they can do that. The devil you know and all that.

Seems a little shortsighted. One, relievers can be found just about anywhere, or crafted from anywhere (and I personally believe Carlos Rodon‘s future is that of a Southside Josh Hader, a multi-inning relief weapon, but let’s have that discussion another time that ends with Fifth Feather beating me over the head with his shoes). If Bummer and Colome can bring back multiple pieces, even just lottery tickets, you’d have to think long and hard about that. There are maybe a handful of relievers worth getting attached to in baseball. Neither of those guys is one of them.

And considering the arms race the AL has become, there is no such thing as too much depth. The Astros won over 100 games last year and still added Yordan Alvarez through their system this term. And there are more they could. The Yankees have like 12 hitters. The Dodgers add another mutant or two every year. You needn’t look any farther than the other side of town to see how you can fall behind when your system stops producing, or is stripped, or both for just a season or two. So the Sox may think they’ll be all set in a year’s or two’s time when Robert and Madrigal join the ones who are already here, but you still have to keep going if you want to compete with the aristocracy in baseball.

If Colome and Bummer do that, you probably have to pull the trigger on it. There’s always more where that came from.

Baseball

Well, Guess It’s Time To Talk About Pedro Strop

By Sam Fels 1485 0

Generally I would leave this kind of thing for a series recap, but the heat from last night’s loss–which definitely had the feel of one you’ll look back on in September and kick something (or this team will make it moot and prove to be worth something, but we’ll see)–probably warrants more. You say things after that kind of loss that after any kind of thinking you know isn’t true. But damn it feels good, doesn’t it? So let’s try and get to the real, except in a non-MTV fashion.

One is the idea that Strop has pitched himself out of high-leverage situations. And there certainly are enough examples now that you could make that case, except they’re not all in a row. The first high-profile cock-up, and one that Sox fans are likely to be citing for years to come, came to Eloy of course. But Strop followed that up with three straight scoreless and hitless outings, and four scoreless outings (giving up just one hit in the fourth outing after). He gave up three hits in an inning in Pittsburgh next, and you may remember that inning as the one Willson Contreras cut down Melky Cabrera at home to keep it scoreless.

After that, he put up another spotless inning before giving up a three-run homer to Starling Marte the next trip out there. Two more spotless outings before he gave up a tying homer against the Padres on Friday (a scorching hot day where everything was leaving), but rebounded the next day. And of course, last night.

So yes, taken as a whole Strop’s record of late doesn’t suggest someone who should be getting the 8th over Kintzler (whether Kintzler was available last night is another question, though). But it hasn’t been a “streak” per se, and you could see if you squint where Maddon could just as easily conclude Strop had some momentum to ride. Strop certainly has earned the most amount of leash as anyone.

Secondly, the idea that Strop isn’t getting whiffs, one I suggested in the aftermath. Again, this just isn’t true. Overall, he’s getting the same amount of swinging strikes as he always has. Broken down by pitch, his slider is getting the same amount of whiffs-per-swing it did in previous seasons, his four-seam is only down a tick, and a split he’s featured this year gets whiffs on a third of the swings it sees.

But the problem area is obvious. It’s his two-seam or sinker, depending on what site is calling it what. It’s only generating 3% whiffs-per-swing. It was the culprit in the homers to Jimenez, Marte, and Naylor. Hitters are managing a .556 average against it (that’s batting average, not slugging), and a slugging 1.556. That’s…unholy.

Still, it’s hard to separate Strop’s two-seam from his four-seam, because they’ve basically both been the same speed his whole career. And both are down a tick in velocity, to 94 MPH average. Strop has never had pinpoint control, but he could miss his spots at 95 or 96. He can’t at 93 or 94, which is what’s obvious.

Still, last night is a touch on the weird side. Pablo Sandoval has made a career of hitting pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at, and that slider was nearly on his shoelaces. I mean, come on…

So that’s just rotten luck. Crawford’s single was just a well-placed grounder, and if it’s two feet to the right it’s a double play and the whole inning is basically over. But both Slater and Panik teed off on fastballs, though the one Panik hit was outside the zone and if it there was a problem it was just a little high. Still, probably not where Strop wanted it.

Another idea I’ve had that isn’t really the truth is that Strop needs to throw his slider more. Well, he is, at least compared to last year. He’s throwing it 40% of the time, compared to 30% last year. However, the two seasons previous, he basically threw it half the time. Those were two of his best seasons as a Cub, though his best came the year before when he threw it about as much as he does now.

Like everyone else, the contact numbers against Strop are getting worse. But his ground-balls are up significantly from last year and in line with his heyday as a Cub. Still, the added FIVE MPH on his exit velocity and the barrel % nearly tripling is a real problem. It’s beyond a problem. It’s an air raid siren.

Health is never far from the discussion with Strop now, because he’s missed time the past three or four seasons. One wonders if he’s getting the push from his legs that he needs considering it’s been leg trouble almost every time he’s landed on the IL.

Another issue is there just aren’t many options. Thanks to Carl Edwards Jr. finally giving fully in to his mental-turtle ways, and Brandon Morrow not actually existing, and Brad Brach’s terminal case of being Brad Brach, you can understand why Maddon is going to wait until he has no choice but to not trust a pitcher who has given him five seasons of plus service. If Kinztler was down, who else do you go to last night after Cishek was used? You tossing Rowan Wick there already?

Going forward, wherever he is used, Strop probably needs to ditch the two-seam fastball, use his slider half the time, and maybe see if he can also play his split off his fastball. But he is 34, and one wonders if this isn’t just time catching up. It better not be, because the Cubs need him. They can’t get three more arms before the trade deadline. Even two is going to be tough. Some answers are going to have to come internally. It’s hard to see a scenario where Strop isn’t one of them and this team going where it needs to.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Marlins: Goin’ Fishin’

By Andy Jonathan 1675 0

              VS

RECORDS: Marlins 36-61   White Sox 44-52

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday at 7:10

TV: NBCSN Monday and Tuesday, WGN Wednesday

Booger Sugar: Fish Stripes

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Game 1: Chevy Nova vs Trevor Richards

Game 2: Dylan Covey vs Caleb Smith

Game 3: Reynaldo Lopez vs TBD

 

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – RF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Jon Jay – LF

Wellington Castillo – DH

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Adam Engel– CF

Jose Rondon – SS

 

PROBABLE MARLINS LINEUP

Curtis Granderson – LF

Martin Prado – 3B

Brian Anderson – RF

Garrett Cooper – 1B

Starlin Castro – 2B

Jorge Alfaro – C

Miguel Rojas – SS

Cesar Puello – CF

Yadiel Rivera – DH

 

Well that was odd.  The White Sox certainly weren’t supposed to show up in Tampa Bay and take the series from the wild card sniffing Rays but that’s exactly what happened. The series featured a return to form for Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, who both looked extremely comfortable on the mound, leaving Ray-shaped piles of ash in the opposing batters boxes. The Marlins, meanwhile, did exactly what everyone expected of them by losing the series to the Unholy Terror that is the Dodgers.  Both teams have had stupid travel schedules the past few weeks, having been on both coasts (Oakland and Tampa for the Sox and NY and LA for the Fish) only to meet in the middle here on the Southside.

The Fish have been taking the path the White Sox have as far as lineup construction this season, they just haven’t had the big name prospects producing the way Moncada and Giolito have.  They also haven’t hit on any lottery tickets like the Sox did with James McCann. They’re dead last in the NL in offensive categories, and fourth from the bottom in pitching stats. The only bright spots for the Marlins this year come from Brian Anderson and Caleb Smith. Anderson provides consistent pop from the 3B spot and currently leads the team in WAR 1.7 (Simpsons collar tug.gif). He was drafted in the 3rd round back in 2014, and while he didn’t tear up the lower levels, his production has steadily increased over the past seasons and may end up being a nice surprise for Miami in the long run.

Caleb Smith came over to Miami in a trade from the Yankees, who drafted him in the 14th round (!) back in 2013. His first full year in 2018 he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and lead Miami’s rotation in strikeouts. His fastball isn’t anything to write home about speed-wise, only averaging about 92.5 in speed. It’s the spin rate of the pitch that makes it so effective, as it’s in the top 15% across the league. He’s had some injury issues this season, and missed a decent chunk of time with hip problems. He’s under team control for five more years, but the Super Brain Geniuses in Fish Central Control have said that they’re willing to listen to offers for him.

As far as our Southside Stalwarts go, not much has changed lineup-wise as Eloy and Timmy are still on the shelf with their respective elbow and ankle issues. Rick Hahn was quoted as saying that we should know more about Timmy’s rehab status later today after his medical evaluation.  Luis Robert continues to murder balls down at AAA, causing Hahn to temper everyone’s hopes earlier than expected. Ricky Renteria got some interesting news from his Pitching Rotation Ouija Board so it looks like Dylan Covey is going to get a start Tuesday night instead of the Better Dylan for reasons that only beings from The Beyond can answer. Wellington Castillo is still here, so it looks like the WAR from the DH position is still going to be in the negative for the foreseeable future.

The Sox built some momentum this past series against a much better team than them, lets see if they can continue it against one of the few teams with a legitimately worse rotation than them.

Let’s Go Sox