Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Duncan Keith or Diminishing Flash

By Sam Fels 1800 0

Duncan Keith had a couple things going for him this year, in terms of not being the subject of the hairdryer treatment from fans and media alike that Seabrook, Saad, and Toews got. One, Seabrook soaked up most of it amongst the d-men, mostly because Seabrook’s contract was never a bargain which Keith’s has been for a decade now. Or was. Second, Keith has never been put center of the Hawks marketing blitz like Toews has, nor has he show much motivation to be so. While he was the most important skater for the Hawks for said decade, and he was, he’s never been covered or treated that way, even though his silverware cabinet eclipses that of any of his teammates and most players in the NHL (to review: three rings, two Norris Trophies, two gold medals, and a Conn Smythe, the only Hawk who actually got the Conn Smythe he deserved).

So even though Keith has clearly hit the back nine on his career, the knives for him aren’t nearly as sharp. And they probably shouldn’t be. Let’s dive in, folks:

Duncan Keith

82 games (first time he’s done that since 2011), 2 goals, 30 assists, 32 points, -29, 28 PIM

51.8 CF%, 0.73 CF% rel, 51.3 SCF%, 47.1 xGF%, -3.57 xGF% rel

So if I were to map out the numbers over the previous five years, you would see that yes, these are lower than what Keith used to do, but they’re not really that far off what he was doing in 2016-2017. That’s when he was mostly paired with Hjalmarsson, they were taking the hardest shifts in terms of opponents and zone starts, and both of them were starting to creak rather loudly.

Here’s the scary part of Keith’s numbers this year, though. It’s with a huge uptick in offensive zone starts. This year Keith’s Zone Start Rating–the measure offensive zone starts against total starts–was 59.2. Last year it was 52.3. So even with start many more shifts in the offensive zone, Keith wasn’t really pushing the play at all. That’s a problem.

Another problem was finding someone to play with Keith. At this point in his career, Keith needs someone to do some of the work for him. He can’t be the ultimate defensive guy and squeeze the play up the ice as he had done in the past, with either Seabrook or Hjalmarsson basically being the “Break Glass In Case Of…” guy behind him. Most of his time was spent with Jordan Oesterle, who we know is basically a faint suggestion of anything. Oesterle is basically the blank slate you get when you Create-a-Player, before you earn any points to improve him. Even though they went back to it at the end of the season. Brent Seabrook simply isn’t up to it anymore. The pairing with Connor Murphy just didn’t quite work, which had to have been the blueprint before the season started. Then again, they only got about 10 games together, so it’s probably worth trying again next year.

A lot was made of Keith’s lonely two goals (one of which kept the Blues out of the playoffs so that should count for like 10, if not 100). What’s kind of funny is that Keith got more attempts per game, more shots on goal per game, and more xG per game than in his previous seasons. He just shot an utterly unfathomable and really quite comedic 1% overall. Even for a d-man that’s…I mean I think the adjectives are beyond me. Farcical would be a good place to start. Seuessian might be another. Some of that has to be a result of starting in the offensive zone more than ever before.

The thing is Keith has never been a great offensive d-man. And that sounds strange for a two-time Norris winner and has a few 50+ point seasons to his name. But Keith’s offense, as we’ve said repeatedly, springs from his defense. He’s not Karlsson. He’s not Subban. He’s not Hedman. He would stop rushes against at his own blue line or before, get the puck up to the forwards ASAP and then join the rush. He would be the late-man or rack up secondary assists. He’s not really, nor has never been, a playmaker.

So next year you can look for his point totals to go up simply because HOCKEY. But that doesn’t mean the Hawks can count on him to be a top-pairing puck-mover ever again. He’s not going to be. To go with the numbers, you could see that the plays Keith used to make, and the ones you wouldn’t necessarily teach, he couldn’t quite get to anymore. He couldn’t step up outside his blue line as consistently anymore because he could get beat to the outside. He couldn’t chase outside the circles in his own zone because more and more forwards could get around him. He couldn’t fly out to the corners in the same way because he wouldn’t get there in time or he’d get beat back to the net.

That’s not to write off Keith at all. His instincts are still upper echelon. What he needs is to find a way to shrink his game, and to do that the Hawks are going to have to find him a partner who allows him to. It has to be someone mobile, because you want someone who can cover for Keith and not the other way around. It has to be someone who can get up the ice the way Keith used to, and it has to be stressed to Duncs that he’s just not that guy anymore. Murphy in theory can do the first part but not really the second. Gustafsson is too wonky in his own end to do the first part. If Jokiharju were two years older, he has the skillset to be that guy. But he’s not going to be ready for that. Forsling has the Gustafsson problem. The answer is going to have to come from outside the organization. I just don’t know what that answer is, and know it most likely will be very expensive in terms of either money, chips in a trade, or both.

But then…all of Karlsson, OEL, and Faulk are probably going to be out there in the trade market…I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 8: California Is Burning

By Sam Fels 1854 0

Let’s all shed a tear for SoCal hockey. Because they love being called “SoCal.” Anyway, now that that’s over…

Penguins 5 – Flyers 0 (PIT leads 3-1)

Only in hockey would it basically go under the radar that the Flyers rock-person defenseman Radko Gudas…

Injured their #1 center in practice! Sure, they’re all calling it an accident but there was video of it and it sure didn’t look all that accidental. Gudas, who thinks toothpaste comes out of the tube via magic, who can’t do anything but put other players in danger, kneecapped his own team’s chances in practice! We’re talkin’ bout practice! Imagine if like…fuck I don’t even know what to compare it to…Tristan Thompson tripping LeBron James? Ok, Sean Couturier isn’t LeBron on ice or anything close.

The point is that in Philly, this is just the price of doing business. Flyers fans don’t seem to care, because they either think their players are supposed to do Medieval Times for real in practice or that the Flyers are just such a ridiculous entity that of course their d-man who sets the sport back a decade is going to injure their #1 center because FLYERA. What a team. What a city. Maybe they’re still drunk from the Iggles (maybe?!).

Anyway, the Flyers are done and the Penguins are more fun anyway.

Lightning 3 – Devils 1 (TB Diddler’s lead 3-1)

This series is still taking place in the dark, but if you missed it they did try and kill each other last night. Nikita Kucherov probably should get whacked for a game for his hit on Sami Vatanen, which if you missed, and the Devils spent the rest of the night trying to exact a pound of flesh. Which really isn’t their strength. And the Lightning just skipped off with the space. This will end soon, which is fine because the Devils aren’t supposed to really be here in the arc of their development anyway. At least Taylor Hall got the spotlight.

Predators 3 – Avalanche 2 (NSH leads 3-1)

Just outclassed. Filip Forsberg can probably do this himself, even if it never feels like the Preds have hit anywhere near top gear. They did enough in the first two periods to demonstrate what a mismatch this is, considering what the Avs are and what they’re missing. The Avs did mount a furious comeback but when you’re there that’s rarely going to work. Let’s get to what we’ve all been waiting for.

Ducks 1 – Sharks 2 (Sharks sweep)

I’ll have more on this in the Ducks eulogy later today, but safe to say no one’s going to miss the Ducks. Even the Ducks. The Sharks are just an efficient team built to win a round or two but then job for one of the powers out of the Central. Then again, you can see them giving the Preds or Jets a real problem simply from memory because they’ve done this so much. It’s a very good blue line that’s fully healthy, Jones is playing really well, and if Thornton returns and THEY KEEP PAVELSKI AT CENTER WHAT’S SO HARD ABOUT THIS then they’ve got real depth. It feels like it’s very Sharks-depth though, where it’s just enough to break their fans’ hearts again. But that’s their way.

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The LA Kings

By Sam Fels 1997 0

It used to be tradition that playoff exits were complimented by eulogies on Puck Daddy. But with Wysh off in the Connecticut hinterlands and those who remain at Yahoo! being a bunch of Canadian giblets who take things far too seriously (and Lambert being angry and definitely not a Bruins fan), we don’t need them to do what we do best. So fuck it. We’ll eulogize all 15 teams that will eventually fall. And we take unique pleasure in getting to do the Kings first. 

Leave it to the Kings to play quite simply the most unwatchable series since the Lockout of  ’04-’05. There are snuff films that have been lighter fare than their four-game outhouse-cleaning loss to the Knights. If they’d offered this as a prop bet it would have been easy money. While they locked Darryl Sutter out of the dressing room multiple times and eventually kicked his muppet-gone-wrong face out because he made them play a style that would have broken Noriega, when the chips were down John Stevens went back to the only thing the Kings know. Dump, crash, rumble, back up, repeat. Except it didn’t work, and the Kings three goals in the whole series pretty much attest to that. But what three goals they were!

What’s infuriating about the Kings is you can find no better example of a team not learning a lesson from its own methods. Better than the Oilers or Flames or even Hawks. While the Kings were able to belch/fart/ralph their way to a Cup in ’12 thanks to a sweetheart draw and Quick’s .946, they won again in 2014 by beating the Hawks at their own game. They were fast. They were creative. They were lethal. They had Kopitar, Gaborik, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Williams shotgunning all over the place. Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, Voynov (blech) were pushing the play from the back to a ridiculous pace. Nothing has ever come close to the sheer madness and coke-binge hockey (maybe literally) that was the ’14 West Final. The Kings got it, and did it better than anyone to win their second in three years.

And then they went back to their covered-in-dung ways, while the rest of the league went about trying to replicate what they had just done. Such brilliant moves as trading for Milan Lucic and/or Dion Phaneuf or Vincent Lecavalier or bringing back Rob Scuderi. It was like Homer telling the car designers “I need an immobile asshole here, here, and here!” The result has been one playoff win since. One.

The Kings are basically the obnoxious frat boy who did well in college with dumb sorority girls who didn’t know better (or were forced not to because all frat boys are rapists, SCIENCE FACT), but then met a wonderful girl right after and suddenly became a really good guy…until dumping her after reading Barfstool or a few months because she didn’t shotgun beers or something. And now they’re just the old guy at the same bar, not realizing it’s all over.

In the end, this is what Kings fans want, because it’ll give them more time to bitch about the individual awards their players won’t win. Not only do Kings fans feel aggrieved that Kopitar or Doughty won’t be taking home hardware, they’ll accuse everyone of lacking moral fiber who doesn’t think they should. I guess we shouldn’t expect anything else from a city that blows itself as hard as LA does about the industry they created and only they really care about. DiCaprio didn’t campaign as hard for “The Revenant” as these dinguses. Last week every writer east of the Mississippi received a tote bag marked “from TheRoyalHalf on behalf of Anze.” Next year everyone get ready for a “Trevor Lewis Should Win The Selke And If You Don’t Vote For Him You Killed Jesus” campaign.

The Hawks window may be over, but it didn’t slam nearly as hard as the Kings did. And no one in LA is going to miss them, because next year the Lakers might win 30 games. Also, Drew Doughty eats the homeless from Skid Row.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Only After You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: The Rest Of The Goofuses And Nincompoops

By Sam Fels 1775 0

Because we have to, we’ll go through the rest of the goalies who suited up for the Hawks, but altogether because they really were a mishmash of goo that is indiscernible from the next. I’m not sure any of these guys are going to matter ever. Maybe one might. Let’s just get through this and go about our day as if none of this ever happened. It’s pretty much what the Hawks are doing.

Jeff G.L. Ass

15 apperances, .898 SV%, 3.36 GAA, .909 at even-strength, .870 on the PK

We get why Q went to Glass when he did. At the time, his team couldn’t play defense to save their lives (and that never really did change). Anton Forsberg hadn’t grabbed the job with either hand. It was a nice story, and maybe the team would somehow try a little harder or be more aware in their own end with this journeyman punter in the net. Otherwise they’d get embarrassed.

And the thing was, it kind of worked for a game or two. Glass’s rebound control was awful, his positioning not much better, but the team did sorta kinda fight to clear all those rebounds away (so many rebounds…). His first three starts saw a win in Edmonton, an OT loss in Calgary, and a win in New York (Rangers version). Of course, looking over the list of opponents there and things get a little clearer, don’t they? After beating the Jets two starts later (seriously, Jeff Glass got a win over the Jets), he wouldn’t get another win and the team wouldn’t locate a fuck to give again. And that was that.

Glass isn’t an NHL goalie, and isn’t going to become one at 32-33. No, he’s not Tim Thomas, and that might never happen again. I suppose it was worth a shot, and now back to whatever smoke filled backroom he came from.

JF Berube

13 appearances, .894 SV%, 3.78 GAA, .905 at evens, .846 on the kill

I think I’m gonna car-ralph reading more of these numbers. Anyway, Berube was brought in for training camp, which means the Hawks thought they might have something to at least look at here. And if you squinted, you could see something of an NHL goalie in Berube. He ended up more square to the shooter than Forsberg or Glass. His rebound control was better. The problem was it took him roughly the same amount of time to move side-to-side as you would age a prime cut of beef. So it doesn’t really matter if you’re square if the puck is already behind you. Berube is 26 so I suppose there’s time for him to establish a career as a backup, but he’s going to have to get way quicker if that’s ever going to happen. We’re almost done I swear.

Collin Delia

I’m only throwing him on here because it’s been a while since the Hawks had a goalie in their system a while and brought them through. You’ll recall Niemi was only in Rockford a year. Raanta was straight into the Hawks team. Darling only spent half of a season in Rockford, and not even that. Delia is only 23, will be 24 at the start of next year, and I have this feeling the Hawks are going to give him a lot of time and a lot of chances. Delia’s numbers in Rockford aren’t all the impressive, but then again Rockford isn’t all the impressive (take that in whatever context you want and it’ll still be correct). But he closed the season well, and if he has a strong playoff series or two (assuming he gets the starts) then he could come into camp with a shot at surprising or at least getting the starting job in RockVegas next year all to himself.

 

Everything Else

Night Songs- Round 1 Day 7: It’s much funnier when it happens to someone else

By Adam Hess 1809 0

Last night was an exercise in the duality of these NHL playoffs. I can’t really remember the last time I felt like the NHL playoffs were somewhat resembling the NBA’s tournament, but this year kinda feels like that – there are a few series which have a clearly dominant team for whom winning seems inevitable, and then a few series that definitely could go either way. In this case, we watched Winnipeg continue their dominance of Minnesota, which has felt inevitable since puck drop of Game 1. We had Washington and Lumbus, which has been very even – because both teams suck, not because they’re both good – and went to OT for the third time in three games. Vegas and LA was kinda even but the Knights ended up completing a sweep because the NHL is a urinal.

Capitals 3 – Jackets 2 (20T) (CBJ leads 2-1)

Barry Trotz finally stopped out thinking himself and put Braden Holtby in net. I know Holtby didn’t have a stellar season, but ultimately I still think it was foolish to not start him in this series to begin with. And yeah, I don’t know how much of a difference it would’ve ultimately made given both of the first two games went to OT as well, but overall Holtby is a better netminder than Grubauer and I’m willing to bet he stops that Panarin winner from Game 1. This game was just as evenly played as the other two have been, and I think CBJ might really end up eliminating this Capitals outfit. And hey, Caps fans, at least losing to the Jackets would save you from losing to the Penguins again.

Jets 2 – Wild 0 (WIN leads 3-1)

We all would’ve been better off if the Wild had just accepted reality and let Winnipeg run over them in Game 3 as well, just accepting the defeat of a sweep. Instead they got mauled again last night – the Jets controlled nearly 60% of the shot attempts in all three periods! – and are in for another belt-over-a-raw-ass beating again in two days. I wish I could feel bad for them, but I most definitely do not. Chicago is the state of hockey, bitches.

Golden Knights 1 – Kings 0 (Knights sweep series 4-0)

The NHL is a urinal. A team made of paper mache and scrap heaps just swept the Los Angeles Kings out of the playoffs. Look, I know the Kings were hardly a force to be reckoned with this year, but neither should Vegas have been. I think there’s probably something to the idea that the underdog status and borderline disrespectful expectations for them, even as champs of the Pacific Division, is motivating them, but an expansion team with a bunch of guys who have had to add “who?” to their name in their career sweeping a team with one one of the league’s best 1C/1D combos is just outrageous. There is no way this kind of shit happens in any of the other leagues that isn’t a single entity. But, this league is a urinal.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Only After You Eat the Peanuts Out of My…– FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews: Anton Forsberg, Show Business is a Hideous Bitch Goddess

By Rose Rankin 1728 0

Anton Forsberg

35 GP, .908 SV%, 2.97 GAA, .910 SV% at evens, .865 SV% on the kill

Way back in August, I wrote the preview on Forsberg and mused that he seemed like a quadruple-A player, and that if he didn’t take things up a notch we’d be wondering why that preview wasn’t about J.F. Berube. First of all, that was the closest thing to an accurate prediction I made all season, and second, we sadly found out that Berube didn’t deserve the preview either. But we’ll get to the rest of the cast of jamokes-in-net later; for now, let’s focus on Forsberg.

I have frequently expressed that Forsberg seems truly unlucky—the unluckiest man in the NHL at times, and in this league that’s saying quite a lot. But the truth is that it wasn’t all bad luck, plain and simple. At some point you have to overcome bad bounces and defensive breakdowns and make some big saves—it’s a goalie league, after all. And at too many points in time Forsberg showed he wasn’t really capable of doing that. That .908 SV% overall? Not going to get it done. His save percentage on the PK? Downright shitty. When you give up three goals on 13 shots to the Coyotes (back in mid-February before they went on a hot streak, which, actually, BEGAN with that game), that says something.

Now, for some of the caveats: the defense. There’s no getting around the fact that a shitty defense puts undue pressure on a goalie, which is why Crawford’s numbers and achievements are all the more impressive. Remember the Rutta-Forsling combo that just never seemed to die? The on-ice save percentage when they were out there was .899, and if you can believe it, we somehow survived 406 minutes of watching that combo this season. And then there was Nachos and his inability to move his churro-laden ass, and there was Jordan Oesterle, and a slower Duncan Keith…you know the story by now. So while Forsberg most certainly deserves responsibility/opprobrium for his numbers, they alone don’t tell the whole story.

Also, coaching and personnel choices have to be considered. If you were kinda nervous at a new job and hoping to overcome jitters, and then after a few mistakes you got replaced with an inexperienced nobody who was practically a generation older than you, where would your confidence be at? Even for stiffs like me with desk jobs, that would be sad. For a young athlete with the opportunity of a lifetime to become the starting goalie for a Cup contender, I imagine it would be devastating. Again, at the end of the day it’s on Forsberg to perform, but Q’s short leash and the mental ramifications can’t be ignored.

Where Do We Go From Here: The answer to this question really lies with Crawford, and as Sam’s review discussed yesterday, that’s all smoke and mirrors right now and probably will remain so for at least a decent chunk of the summer (wtf is that? This hellscape tundra will never end).

If Crow is healthy and comes back to start the season, then Forsberg deserves a chance as the back-up again. He was serviceable, even solid in net at times. His positioning and rebound control was definitely better than Feel-Good Story Jeff Gl-Ass, and at least as good as Berube’s. With some confidence and even a slightly better blue line in front of him, he could probably be perfectly acceptable for 20-ish games.

If Crawford doesn’t come back at the start of the season, then Forsberg may be able to stay as the back-up but shouldn’t be the No. 1 guy. Whoever the Hawks would go after (Bernier? Grubauer?) would also be a factor: would it be a guy who expects to step into the starting role? Or would it be someone more on the cusp, who would have to earn the starter’s spot over Forsberg? Again, Crawford’s expected return time and condition will impact all of those answers, not to mention how the cap figures into all this. The Hawks should have some money to play with, but as we’ll see with the rest of these reviews, they also have a lot of questions to answer.

And if none of it went down that way and Forsberg was traded, that would be OK too. Berube could be the back-up if they landed someone better, and that same scenario works if Crow is back at 100%. It’s disappointing, no doubt about it; I really had hoped this would have been Forsberg’s year, my frent. But in the end, we’re back at quadruple-A. Sometimes I actually don’t like being right.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 6: A Couple Fightbacks, and One Capitulation Please

By Sam Fels 1482 0

As I said yesterday, it’s really rare to see sweeps in the NHL playoffs. All it takes for any team to get one win is a good goalie performance, or a bad one against you, or just a few pucks going in that didn’t in the first couple games, or maybe a weak call or two. It’s not like the NBA, where if a team doesn’t have an answer on defense for a certain player or matchup, their opponent is just going to keep going to it or force an adjustment and they’ll just open up something else. So the Leafs, Devils, and Avs were able to scratch last night. Meanwhile, the Ducks continue down a familiar and utterly hilarious path.

Bruins 2 – Leafs 4 (BOS leads 2-1)

While it would have been wonderful, the odds the Bruins could continue to smack the Leafs upside the head with a shovel for four straight games were always long. The Leafs had to muster their most energy and best game of the season, and they did just about that last night. While the postgame thread was mostly about how Babcock decided to match up Tomas Plekanec with Patrice Bergeron and how that line for once didn’t rip out most of the Leafs’ vital organs, in reality Bergeron kicked around Plekanec as he normally does with everyone else. They just didn’t score as much as they did in Games 1 and 2. Unless the Leafs think Bergeron taking a 66% share of attempts while Pleks was out there against them is a good thing. That line also had nine shots on goal for the Bruins combined, and if the Leafs try that again they’re going to be very, very sorry. Freddie Andersen was very good, which will be all the more deflating when he turns into a whoopi cushion again soon.

Lightning 2 – Devils 5 (TB Diddler’s lead 2-1)

They might have declared this series over if it wasn’t for Taylor Hall. It’s rather amazing the Devils got this one, because they were crushed over the first two periods to the tune of the Lightning having a 65% share in the first 40. But Schneider held strong long enough for Taylor Hall to do Taylor Hall things, the Lightning weren’t all there, and the Devils get some life. It won’t last long but hey, cheap thrills.

Predators 3 – Avalanche 5 (NSH leads 2-1)

Would have been the most enjoyable outcome of the evening if not for the Ducks. I gotta tell ya, as I’ve been saying, this Preds team is vulnerable. Yes, the first playoff game in Denver in four years was always going to lead to a lively atmosphere, and the Avs were always going to throw a heavy bag of desperation at the Preds. But they simply ran the NashVegas out of the building in the first and could afford to coast from there. BEDNAR! didn’t have MacKinnon out against Treat Boy Johansen, and instead threw him at Kyle Turris, who he inhaled anyway to the tune of a 77% share. Also two goals. Both Turris and Doughboy were -2, Turris had no shots, and Johansen only managed a goal on a 5-on-3 he couldn’t miss. You can get over this center twosome, I’m telling you. Oh, and PK Subban acted a tool, as is his way on the ice. Rinne got pulled, and in three games so far he has a .861. That’ll play for long for sure.

Ducks 1 – Sharks 6 (SJ leads 3-0)

I’m going to steal a comparison from friend of the program, Stace Of Base. And she’s free to break a glass over my head at her earliest convenience. You’ll recall after the Canucks bit it in the Final of ’11, they basically kept the same roster together, and thanks to the crap-tacular nature of the Northwest Division back then, they could continue to win that division. They would muddle through a couple regular seasons, but close hard at the end to win the thing because everyone else was too busy spinning in a circle. In 2012 they got thwacked by the Kings, and then in ’13 they got horsed by the Sharks and basically the Canucks have never been heard from again.

Well, the Ducks have two of the main cogs from that roster, so that’s going well. It feels like they peaked in ’15, when they simply handed the last two games of the conference final to the Hawks. They were beaten by Nashville the next year, and though they got to a conference final last year because their division was so bad, they were once again swatted away by the Preds who lost Johansen halfway through that series (when he was actually trying because he wasn’t paid yet). This Ducks team is finished, and you know it by the way they lash out when they’re done. Randy Carlyle knows no other way. Corey Perry is finished. Ryan Getzlaf somehow cares even less than he did and wants no part of Pavelski or Couture. Kesler can barely walk, but man can he talk.

It’s an interesting bind, because the Ducks blue line is actually good. But when it’s doing its work for a forward corps that eats its dinner at 4pm and then falls asleep, what’s the point? To fix the forwards would mean taking a piece or two off the blue line, and that would be running in place. Can’t wait to see what GMBM does here.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Only After You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews: Corey Crawford or Come Back, Shane!

By Sam Fels 1934 0

It’s that time. We gave you a week break. But now we must all pick through what was before we can figure out what should and shouldn’t be. It’s time for our world famous player reviews. And let’s start with the key log to everything, the player this season and the next few will hinge on, Corey Crawford.

Corey Crawford

27 starts, .929 SV%, 2.27 GAA, .935 SV% at evens, .902 SV% on the kill

God, don’t your eyes just bleed looking at those numbers? Doesn’t it make you wonder what might have been? You forgot about them, didn’t you? Because we spent so long looking at Forsberg’s or Glass’s or Berube’s .888s or whatever they were, it’s hard to understand was a .929 even means. Are those real numbers? Can you do that?

It’s important to remember how good Crow was. Crow’s SV% at 5-on-5 was fourth-best among all starters when he got hurt. His .859 high-danger save-percentage was the best in the league. His dSV%–basically the difference between what his expected save-percentage is based on the chances his team gives up and his actual save-percentage–was second-best behind Sergei Bobrovsky. His PK SV% was sixth-best. Crow is among the elite, and this debate is over on just how good he is. You’ll recall the Hawks’ PK was actually in the top five when Crow was around. It finished in the bottom half. He makes that much of a difference.

There’s no point in going any deeper on Crow, because everyone now knows the season collapsed without him. He’s far and away the most important Hawk, and probably the best. On the ice, there’s no question.

The problem is off the ice. Crow got dinged in Dallas right before Christmas, was awful in the last game before the Christmas break, and then simply became one with the ether from there on out. No one’s seen him, barely anyone has talked to him, and the Hawks’ shroud of secrecy isn’t helping matters. So that kind of affects…

Where We Go From Here: It’s impossible to say. In a vacuum, it’s real simple. Crow is back in the crease in September, he keeps the Hawks from being bad and any other move from there pushes them toward “good.” Crow by himself provides a high floor for the whole team.

But we can’t say that. While the Hawks and their media didn’t make anything of it, Crow apparently did get back on the ice somewhere around late winter and then wasn’t there anymore. In any other language, that’s a setback. And he hasn’t been on the ice since. The Hawks never used the words, “shut down,” which means Crow simply couldn’t get back on the ice with whatever it is he’s dealing with. He wasn’t kept off it. He just wasn’t out there.

So the Hawks can say everything will be fine and he’s on course to be ready for training camp, but there’s simply no evidence of that anywhere. When does he have to be back on the ice? July? August? What if he’s not? Is that part of the plan? If things were fine, I have to believe he’d be in contention to play for Canada at the World Championships if he so desired. It would at least give him game time. Knock off some rust. But that hasn’t been mentioned at all.

Thankfully for the Hawks, no one gives a shit around here about them in the summer. So Crow can not be on the ice all summer and they can say everything is fine and no one’s really going to look any deeper.

But until you actually see #50 out there, you’re never going to know. And the Hawks are going to have to find a way to shield themselves from this disaster again in case Crow isn’t going to be there. Which might not be possible, because there are only four or five guys who can do what Crow does. Do you make a play for a Bernier, or Lehtonen (barf), or Khudobin to get you out of a few weeks? Or one of Grubauer or Holtby if the Caps make a choice? Is that even possible? Bring Carter Hutton back? He wants to start full-time. How does that affect the cap room you have now?

The questions on this go deeper than the Hawks really want to admit.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 5: When The NHL Learns Tough Generally Means Stupid

By Sam Fels 1599 0

Y’know, I didn’t think I’d enjoy the Knights playoff run, however long it went. But I gotta admit I was all in on their WWE intros for Games 1 and 2, because VEGAS. And as the Kings have descended deeper and deeper into being boring, stupid, and ugly, I’m all for Vegas ridding us of their presence as quickly as possible.

Elsewhere, the Caps refuse to learn the same lesson over and over and the Flyers are cute. Let’s spin this right round, baby.

Penguins 5 – Flyers 1 (PIT leads 2-1)

Well it’s nice that the Flyera and Brian Elliot gave it a shot in Game 2, but I think they should probably get used to this. And frankly this is the normal state of Cold Ones. They get a playoff flameout from their goalie, we spend all summer listening to the drama of how they’re going to solve it this time, and then it happens all over again the next season. We’ve been doing this most of our lives, pretty much since Hextall retired. This time the rumors will be Holtby or Grubauer, or maybe Reimer out of Florida, or something equally as silly. Anyway, the Flyers blue line isn’t very good and is getting exposed. That’s really what matters here.

Jets 2 – Wild 6 (WPG leads 2-1)

As much as some series look like mismatches, a sweep is a rare thing. Even when the Hawks were actually good for so long, they only did it twice and were only swept once (as we all know). That’s out of nine years. So with the Jets travel problems–and yes the temptation is to say these are professional athletes and flying in on the day of game shouldn’t be a problem especially when it’s only like an hour flight but think about how you feel after flying–it’s not surprising the Wild were able to come up with one inspired effort in this series. They’re still utterly fucked and really need to get out of the way to get to the series we all want to watch.

Jackets 5 – Capitals 4 OT (CBJ leads 2-0)

This was a weird one. John Tortorella did not deserve that win because of the shell the Jackets went into in the 3rd and OT. The Jackets have easily chased down the Capitals when behind, and the best plan against them is to keep doing that. Sure, it’s easy to back up when you have Bobrovsky behind it all, but you can’t expect him to make 60 saves every time. The Caps are hardly a great defensive team, and were having goalie issues. What happened to the “Safe is Death” guy? The Caps really should be up 2-0 this series.

But they’re not, and it’s partly because they employ the league’s biggest moron. Who was a 1st round pick, by the way. Twice this series Tom Wilson has picked up an unconscionably dumb penalty that the Jackets have scored a tying goal on, and yet they still toss him out there regularly and/or he won’t change his ways. He should have been stapled to the bench after yesterday’s. And really the Caps ran around most of the game like that, and still had the game in the palm of their hands. I gotta say the highlight was in OT when Kuznetsov was set up in the slot by Ovechkin and he decided to try and set up Wilson instead. That’s the mark of a team that doesn’t want to take responsibility. And yet the Caps could easily take the next two in Ohio because the Jackets haven’t really done anything except accept what’s been handed to them. This isn’t over yet.

Knights 3 – Kings 2 (VGK leads 3-0)

This series has been unwatchable. And it got more so last night when it became clear the Kings have run out of answers or ideas, and hence tried to goon the Knights out of the building with a bunch of bullshit before and after whistles. As you can see, it worked a treat. The Kings still can’t score, are barely trying to score, and deserve to be with their ass in the dirt as they are. The Knights kept their head down, didn’t fall for any of it, and then undressed Oscar Fantenburg for their winner. Drew Doughty also got lost for their third goal, which is wonderful. The Kings have been boring, unimaginative, and frankly a pox on the playoffs and I’ll be glad when they’re gone. Oh, and then there’s shit like this from their feed:

Get out of my life.

Everything Else

High On The Hog: Playoff Preview

By Jon Fromi 1907 0

The Rockford IceHogs concluded the regular season this past weekend. Their season, however, has not drawn to a close just yet.

Rockford is preparing for its first-round Calder Cup Playoffs series with the Chicago Wolves, who claimed the top spot in the Central Division. This was, in part, to the fact that Chicago defeated the Hogs twice this weekend to lock in the playoff match-ups.

Rockford clinched last Tuesday with a 5-3 win in Iowa. Heading into the final weekend of regular-season action, the IceHogs actually had a shot at a division banner if everything fell into place.

It didn’t.

Friday night, Rockford came out in physical fashion at the BMO. As a result, the Hogs found themselves down 5-1 in the third period. They rallied to get the score to 5-4, but the Wolves added an empty-netter and locked up the division title with a 6-4 victory.

Saturday night, Chicago rallied to win at Allstate Arena. Rockford led 4-3 after two periods, but the Wolves got a pair of goals midway through the third to best the IceHogs 5-4. This, despite Chicago resting several regulars while Rockford iced a veteran-heavy lineup.

The way things shake out is this: the piglets get an I-90 series with a team that it matches up with very well on paper. The Wolves are division champs, yet this is a very winnable series for Rockford.

This week, I am going to focus on the pending opening to this first-round series. Things get underway Saturday night in Rosemont, followed by a Sunday matinee at the BMO Harris Bank Center. Here’s a preview of what should be quite the entertaining best-of-five tilt.

With two teams within driving distance squaring off (a bus issue required the Wolves to drive themselves to Rockford Friday), each game will alternate between Chicago and Rockford. After the home-and-home that comprises Games One and Two, the action returns to the Allstate Arena Thursday for Game Three. If necessary, Game Four is in Rockford on Sunday, April 29. Game Five would be in Chicago the next day.

There is a decent chance of this series going the distance. The two teams split the 12 games in the season series (with Chicago retaining the Illinois Lottery Cup, for those who care). The Wolves and IceHogs each went 4-2 in their respective barns.

Eight of the 12 games had a one-goal margin of victory; three of those games were decided in overtime or a shootout (Rockford won all of those contests). These are two teams who are very familiar with each other. Let’s you and me get more familiar with the Wolves, as well as our IceHogs.

 

How They Got Here

Chicago

Chicago had a stunningly poor start to the 2017-18 season. After dropping a 3-2 overtime loss to the Hogs December 22, the Wolves were 12-12-5-1. From that point on, Chicago went 29-10-2-4 to race up the standings. They caught a Manitoba squad that had a 14-point lead in the standings a couple of months ago and put together a 13-game home winning streak while doing so.

 

Rockford

Rockford has earned it’s ticket for the playoffs with a strong finish after struggling in the first two months of 2018. The Hogs went 8-10-2-2 from the beginning of the calendar year to February 23. The improvement of goalie Collin Delia and some veteran reinforcements around the trade deadline helped turn the tide. Rockford is a different club than the one that began the season back in October.

 

Forward

Chicago

The Wolves have the sixth-highest scoring offense in the AHL this season with a 3.24 goals per game average. Rest assured, they can fill the net.

Back in the second round of the 2015 Calder Cup Playoffs, the IceHogs were beaten in five games by the Grand Rapids Griffins. More specifically, they were beaten by Teemu Pulkkinen, who notched seven goals and a couple of assists in the series.

Pulkkinen (29 G, 36 A this season) has not been able to get a permanent NHL foothold in Detroit, Minnesota or Las Vegas. However, the 26-year-old Finnish forward has been a nightmarish presence for fans of the IceHogs.

In 32 career regular season games vs Rockford, Pulkkinen has 33 points (21 G, 11 A). In the 12 games against the Hogs this season, Pulkkinen has nine goals and 14 points. He has two-goal performances in each of his last three games against Rockford.

In addition to stopping Pulkkinen, the IceHogs will also have to contend with another offensive juggernaut that hasn’t found a home in the NHL. That would be former Rockford center Brandon Pirri, who is coming off a season in which he tied Pulkkinen for the Wolves goal-scoring title. Pirri had 29 lamp-lighters despite playing in just 57 games for Chicago.

The Wolves are tough up the middle after Pirri. T.J. Tynan had a 60-point season (15 G, 45 A). Wade Megan didn’t match his 33-goal outburst of a season ago, but still can put points on the scoreboard. Stefan Matteau brings 27 points (15 G, 12 A) and a lot of nasty to the ice.

On the outside, Chicago is also talented in addition to Pulkkinen. The Wolves can boast 24-goal scorer Paul Thompson, Beau Bennett (12 G, 45 A) and Tomas Hyka (15 G, 33 A) Long-time AHL veteran Brett Sterling has nine points (4 G, 5 A) in nine games against Rockford this season.

 

Rockford

The IceHogs lack a scorer of Pirri and Pulkkinen’s caliber up front. Rockford’s top four goal scorers are rookies. Matthew Highmore (24 G, 19 A) was the team’s rookie of the year. Tyler Sikura (23 G, 16 A) was the Hogs MVP in his first full AHL campaign.

Both players get to the net; Sikura, in particular, made a steady living in the rebound and redirect department. Anthony Louis (who led the Hogs with 44 points) and William Pelletier both had 14 goals for Rockford in their freshmen seasons.

The veteran scoring can’t rival Chicago, but it was instrumental in the late season surge. Chris DiDomenico put up 28 points (8 G, 15 A) in 22 games in the last two months of the season. Lance Bouma added seven goals and seven helpers in 20 games.

Coming down to Rockford in the last week of the season was Andreas Martinsen, who was a big contributor for the bulk of the Hogs season (12 G, 16 A). along with forwards David Kampf, John Hayden. If Hogs coach Jeremy Colliton can work them into the current team chemistry, they could be a big X-factor in this series.

 

Defense

Chicago

The Wolves are also sixth-best in the league on the other side of the rink, giving up 2.73 goals per game.

Jason Garrison has ample NHL experience and a heavy shot from the point. He has 28 points (8 G, 20 A) on the season in 58 games for Chicago. Rookie Jake Bischoff (7 G, 16 A) leads the Wolves with a plus-23 skater rating.

Phillip Holm was acquired in February. He hasn’t put up the numbers for the Wolves like he had in Utica the first four months of the season. Nonetheless, he put up the game-tying goal against Rockford on Saturday night. Another recent addition, Zac Leslie, has five goals and 17 assists for the Wolves in 27 games.

 

Rockford

The IceHogs have been at their best when they can push the pace of the game. It is the blueline that provides the jump to Rockford’s game.

Again, influx of veteran players has helped in this area, specifically Cody Franson and Adam Clendening. Both players had added offensive punch to the back end and, along with DiDomenico, completely revamped the power play.

With the additions of Franson and Clendening, Rockford sports a formidable group on defense. Carl Dahlstrom (3 G, 25 A) and Viktor Svedberg (6 G, 18 A) have both had solid seasons. Darren Raddysh and Gustav Forsling will likely form the third pairing.

 

Goalie

Chicago

Going into the playoffs, it looks like rookie Oscar Dansk will be backed up by Max Lagace. Dansk was the AHL’s Goalie of the Month back in March. He has a 2.47 GAA and a .917 save percentage in 20 games with the Wolves, most coming in the last two-and-a-half months.

 

Rockford

It will be Delia and Jeff Glass in net for the IceHogs. Glass is one of the most respected voices in the locker room and Delia has been the Hogs best goalie over the last two months. Expect both to see action in this series.

 

Special Teams

On paper, the Wolves have a big advantage here, as Rockford struggled on both the power play and penalty kill units this season. I believe that going into this series, however, that the teams are more even that the regular season totals would suggest.

First off, the Hogs power play has been very good the last month. Second, Rockford doesn’t take a lot of dumb penalties. If they wind up giving Chicago a lot of chances, players like Pulkkinen will make them pay dearly.

This weekend, Rockford was uncharacteristically physical with the Wolves and would up in the box more than I’d like to see. As a result, Chicago had two power play goals both Friday and Saturday.

 

Bottom Line…How Does This Series Go?

If Rockford tries to get in a shoving match with the Wolves, as was the case at the BMO Friday night, I don’t think things auger well. I can’t imagine that Hogs coach Jeremy Colliton is going to try and out-muscle Chicago in this series, though.

This figures to be a more evenly-matched affair than the other Central pairing; I would imagine that Grand Rapids, who wound up second in the standings, will be able to handle a slumping Manitoba club in the first round.

The one-four match-up has the elements of a classic. Two interstate rivals, both of which are playing well heading into the postseason. Either team is capable of moving on to the next round. Of course, there can be only one, as they say.

I’ll play the role of homer…piglets in five.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for thoughts on what should be a must-watch first-round series between the Hogs and Chicago.