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Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Jordan Oesterle, The Other GREAT STORY

By John Pullega 1844 0

Once thought of as merely a depth signing, Jordan Oesterle went from playing a combined 25 games over three years for the corroded sewer piping that is Edmonton’s defense to taking first-pairing minutes with future Hall of Famer Duncan Keith. Like you, we often wondered how on Earth a team that relied so heavily on its defensemen to win games and Cups ended up throwing a guy who couldn’t hack it in Edmonton into meaningful minutes. At the end of the day, Oesterle wasn’t the underground landfill fire approaching a nuclear waste dump that we worried he could be, but that isn’t saying much. Let’s see what we have here.

Jordan Oesterle

55 GP, 5 Goals, 10 Assists, 15 Points, -11, 8 PIM

52.4 CF% (Evens), -0.6 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.15 SCF% (5v5), 49 xGF% (5v5), 0.44 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 56.5% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: If truck stops served oysters, they’d be called Oesterles . . . He’s billed as a no-frills blue liner, which essentially makes him the Tom Smykowski of the NHL. If he’s afforded any meaningful playing time, you’ll beg for someone to set the whole building on fire.

What We Got: If not for Jeff G.L. Ass, Jordan Oesterle would have taken the “WHAT A GREAT STORY” mantle. He scored his first goal ever this year, played in more than half of his team’s games for the first time ever this year, and—per Scott Powers—averaged 21 minutes per game in the Hawks’s final 53 games, trailing only Duncan Keith.

Like everyone’s favorite Irishman, Oesterle found most of his success playing on his off side. Of his 986 minutes, he played 553 of them as the right-side D-man next to Keith. In doing so, he finished with a 52.99 CF% and six points (1 G 5 A) next to Keith (5v5). That’s not bad for a guy with 25 games of experience to his name prior to this year. I’m being entirely sincere when I say that’s really great for him.

What isn’t great is that when you start digging into the numbers, you can quantify what your eyes saw game in and game out: Jordan Oesterle probably sucks, and was at the very least in way over his head.

When you consider the fact that Oesterle started in the offensive zone more than 56% of the time, his overall 52.4 CF% loses some of its sheen. And it only gets worse from there. Despite the plush zone starts, Oesterle posted a team-worst 43.86 High Danger Chances For Percentage (Hillman doesn’t count because he only played four games). This means that even though Oesterle started in the offensive zone much more often than not, he still managed to give up more high-danger scoring chances than he and his linemates took, and by a wide margin.

Oesterle also contributed an abysmal 43.02 Goals For Percentage (GF%), second worst behind Duncan Keith; a -3.55 Relative Goals For Percentage (Rel GF%), third worst behind Keith and Gustav Forsling; and a 49 Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%). This means that in both practice and theory, when Oesterle was on the ice—especially with Keith—the Hawks scored much, much less often than when he wasn’t. Again, this is while starting in the offensive zone 56% of the time.

This isn’t to say that Oesterle can’t be useful. But as a first-pairing defenseman, Oesterle was overwhelmed more often than not. Granted, he was placed on his off side for most of the year, next to a cowboy with increasingly dull spurs, and was asked to take on the best his opponents had to offer on a nightly basis. That’s probably not the wisest use of a guy who, again, couldn’t hack it on a team that thought Adam Larsson was a comparable player to Taylor Hall.

But that’s also not Oesterle’s fault, as Q’s THROBBING GENIOUS BRAIN simply couldn’t contain the temptation to breathe life into a player who is the hockey equivalent of a lump of clay and call him man.

Where We Go From Here: Realistically and unfortunately, Oesterle will probably saddle up next to Keith to start the season again, as Q embarks on another campaign to prove what a smart and forward-thinking coach he is with one of HIS GUYS. But if we’re looking at this as a “maximizing potential” proposition, Oesterle would be the 7th D-man, spelling guys like Rutta and Forsling (God willing) when necessary.

The problem with this is twofold. One, we still don’t know whether the organ-I-zation is going to go out and get a legitimate top-pairing guy. If they do, that’s going to push Oesterle out, as you figure to see combinations of Keith–New Guy, Gustafsson–Seabrook (because fuck you), and Murphy–Rutta (kill me).

Two, though it’s clear to everyone outside the organ-I-zation that Brent Seabrook is now a third-pairing guy, there’s no guarantee that he’ll slot there. If he does, and Seabrook has a crystal-clear understanding that he is to play centerfield and nothing else, you can see Oesterle fitting in there, maybe. But given that Quenneville tended to lean on Seabrook when he was out of answers, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Seabrook as a designated third-pairing guy anywhere but in our dreams.

The important thing to keep in mind is that Oesterle is a complete trainwreck in his own zone—hell, he couldn’t take advantage of a 56% oZ start ratio—so pairing him with guys like Keith, Forsling, or Gustafsson needs to be completely off the table. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for him, and that’s probably for the better.

Oesterle can be a serviceable third-pairing D-man in spot situations. He’s proven that he can play his off side without completely filling his diaper, and if you want to be outrageously generous, you can maybe see him as a second-unit power play QB, if the Hawks stand pat with the blue line in the offseason. But like we said at the beginning of this year, if the Hawks are relying on Jordan Oesterle to play meaningful minutes next year, it might be time to start making and filling some upper-level-management vacancies.

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Putting In The Hours: Rockford Sweeps The Wolves

By Jon Fromi 2298 0

The ‘Bago County Flying Piglets earned themselves a spot in the second round of the Calder Cup Playoffs early this morning. The Blackhawks AHL affiliate in Rockford put in the extra effort at Allstate Arena to sweep the Chicago Wolves.

How much extra effort? Try 57:22 on the old time card.

The IceHogs brought the few fans who stuck it out a 4-3 triple overtime triumph, ending their best-of-five series with Chicago in three games. Rockford will have some time to recharge, as their opponent won’t be decided until Monday night.

I’ll be here with my regular spot on Monday with a look at both potential opponents, but here’s how things played out in Game 3:

Chicago came out as hard as you would expect a team facing elimination would, taking a 2-0 lead by the midpoint of regulation. Most of the tomfoolery of the previous two games was kept in check; neither team seemed to want to spend time killing macho penalties.

It was, however, on the power play where Rockford sparked a run that put it up 3-2 by the second intermission. It all happened in a 4:04 span shortly after Keegan Kolesar gave the Wolves a 2-0 advantage.

Cody Franson one-timed a Chris DiDomenico pass into an opening left by Chicago goalie Max Lagace at 9:50 of the second period. A little over three minutes later, DiDomenico took a drop pass from Andreas Martinsen at the top of the right circle and tied the contest.

The veteran forward was also the catalyst for the third Rockford goal, nabbing the puck in neutral ice and starting a rush into Wolves territory. From DiDomenico to Anthony Louis at the right circle, the puck then was sent to Victor Ejdsell coming across the goal mouth. A backhander past Lagace gave the Hogs a one-goal lead into the second intermission.

Chicago got back to even ground early in the third period when Wade Megan made a terrific second effort to regain possession of his missed shot, come around the net and stuff a wraparound attempt just over the goal line. At that point, both Lagace and Hogs starter Collin Delia put the back of their respective nets on lockdown.

Delia stopped 30 shots in the extra sessions; Lagace withstood 34 on the way to 72 saves for the evening/morning. Chicago looked to have won the contest early in the first overtime on a delayed penalty. A quick whistle (which did not seem warranted as the Hogs did not seem to gain control of the puck) negated that goal and the teams played on…and on…and on…

The game-winner came on the man advantage; Ejdsell took a pass from Louis and fired past Lagace to end the proceedings at 17:22 of the third overtime. Fittingly, Ejdsell’s two-goal performance earned him the game’s first star honors. Lagace had to settle for second star, while DiDomenico (1 G, 2 A) was third star.

Rockford now sits in anticipation of Monday night’s Game 5 between Grand Rapids and Manitoba. This is the third time in the Hogs AHL history that the team has made it out of the opening round. The power play went 7-18 against Chicago and Delia proved to be quite hardy in net. How far can that combination go in the tournament? We’ll see, starting with a preview of the second-round series on Monday.

 

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Watching The Party – FFUD’s Round 2 Preview: Penguins vs. Capitals or The Gods Must Be Crazy

By Sam Fels 1514 0

 vs. 

It’s kind of amazing, while feeling completely inevitable, that we ended up here again. The Capitals were not supposed to be good, much less win the Metro again. The Penguins flirted with both ends of the spectrum this season, flipping between simply awful and simply brilliant sometimes game-to-game. So it was thought the Penguins might have lost by now, or that the Caps would. All of that conveniently forgot that the rest of the division has to wear a helmet both on and off the ice at all times, and were never going to get in they way of these two again. But for once, it’s probably the third-best and third-most anticipated series of this round instead of being the main event of the entire playoffs as its been the past two years. Could that lessening of the spotlight be what the Capitals need to finally get one over their black and gold clad tormentors?

Let’s run it through:

Goalies: The Penguins don’t have any questions. Matt Murray wasn’t excellent against the Flyers, but he didn’t have to be while the Flyers were recreating the Budweiser Frogs in net all series. He’ll probably have to be better here, you’d think. Ovechkin doesn’t tend to lose his mind and principles in the playoffs the way Claude Giroux does, and he comes with Kuznetsov, Oshie, Backstrom, and some spiky bottom-sixers. Murray beat them two years ago but was injured last year so it was left to Fleury to stand by and watch the Caps hilariously fold in on themselves. Murray wasn’t particularly good against the Caps this year, going 2-2-0 while turning around 12 times in four games. But then he wasn’t particularly good in the regular season overall and he still finds himself here.

It would appear the Caps are now settled on Braden Holtby, who gets the chance to make amends for what was a very disappointing season. The incoming hero seems to have brightened his mood, as he threw a .932 at the Jackets in five appearances. But the Jackets don’t come with anything like Crosby, Kessell, Malkin (if he’s healthy), Hornqvist, Guentzel, and a host of others who have proven to be dependable playoff scorers. But Holtby already knows this. He was excellent two years ago and it wasn’t his fault that the Caps lost three OT games. He was pretty awful last year and was a big reason the Caps lost. He’s going to have to at least split the difference here, and unless you play a Guy Boucher-trap-until-everyone-strokes-out system to protect your goalie, these Penguins just don’t get goalie’d.

Defense: The Penguins defense always seems to play above its head, no matter who’s in the lineup and who isn’t. Dumoulin, Letang, Maatta, and Schultz were mostly excellent against the Flyers, and they were under serious pressure at times. The Penguins do make it easier on their d-men where they’re not asked to connect on breakout passes all the time but simply chips into space in the neutral zone for their speedy forwards to latch onto. This certainly helps them. Ruhwedel and Oleksiak are limited but aren’t asked to do much, and the Caps don’t quite have the depth they used to to really get at them.

At first, it looks like John Carlson was adding to his UFA presentation package with nine points in six games against the Jackets. But all of them came on the power play and the Penguins are just not going to be as forgiving. That said, the Caps top four on paper matches the Penguins’, if not better. And that includes Michal Kempny which makes me want to put my fist through a wall and eat the drywall that ends up on the floor. Just like the Penguins, Orpik and Djoos have their issues on the bottom pairing, but the difference is that the Pens do have the forward depth to really expose them, at least if Malkin plays and Brassard isn’t asked for more. Home ice once again matters… or it would if this weren’t the Caps.

Forwards: At this point everyone knows the deal with the Penguins. A lineup loaded with fast, shifty wingers bolstered by perhaps the best center-depth in the league. That depends on the health of Evgeni Malkin. He won’t play Game 1, is a stretch for Game 2 but is probably back after that. Even without him, the Pens put up eight goals in Game 6. Brassard is a decent enough stand-in, though they leave him on the third line with Sheary and Rust and Sheahan fills in between Kessel and Hagelin. Either way, the Penguins can and do get you from everywhere, and expect Orpik to look completely bewildered at times.

This isn’t the Caps group you remember, as it is far top heavier than it was. If Ovie and Kuznetsov and Oshie don’t score in this series, at evens or the power play, the Caps are toast. Smith-Pelley and Eller and Vrana are the kinds of players you’d expect to provide support scoring, and they’ll need to. Even with all that, Tom Wilson is going to take a really dumb penalty or 12 that the Penguins will cash in on that will shift the series. It’s just what happens. There is more depth here than the Caps get credit for but it’s not the same as the past two years. And it wasn’t enough the past two years. If Malkin misses the first two games then Backstrom and Kuznetsov have to take advantage. As soon as the Caps lose a home game all the gremlins in their heads come out to dance again.

Prediction: There’s a part of me that really wants to pick the Caps here, just for something different. But everywhere you look, you can’t see where they’re markedly better than the Penguins, if better at all. You’re counting on something you can’t predict happening for them. Maybe Holtby plays incredibly. Maybe Ovechkin binges. Maybe Lars Eller goes off. Maybe their power play stays so hot. But when looking at things that are on the baselines for both these teams, everything for the Penguins just seems likelier. Pens in 6. 

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You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Toronto Maple Leafs (Thank God)

By Sam Fels 3401 0

I woke up this morning slightly surprised that the Earth hadn’t been thrown slightly off its axis, or the weather patterns changed, or some other global-plus shift, by the entire Toronto area sinking into the core of the Earth at some point last night. And I’m sure the greater Toronto population was even more surprised the world kept spinning despite their demands that it stop to observe the collapse of the Leafs.

What shouldn’t have been surprising is how any of it went down. This is how it was going to be, and the more I think about it given how much the world’s troll Boston sports is, they gave us Barf-Fucking-Stool after all, I become more and more confident that the Bruins did this on purpose. They could have wrapped this up in five. They could have blown the Leafs out in the 1st period of Game 7. But knowing they could score at will against the Leafs defense and especially Freddie Andersen in a Game 7, they probably thought it would most entertaining to do it this way. They even teased it by going down 4-1 in Game 5 and nearly coming back. That’s storytelling at its best, folks.

I never really bought into the whole East Coast bias thing fully, because I figured if it was your job you’d stay up to watch games on the West coast. After all, where the fuck do sportswriters have to be before 10am? But clearly they never did, because the way the entire Leafs Nation tried to sell themselves, and then did, on Freddie Andersen quite frankly wreaks of a cult that should be put on every watchlist by every government in the world. It’s not like there’s a small sample size on this. He’d basically spit it in every playoff series he’d played, including Game 7 meltdowns in ’15 and ’16. And yet there they were on whoever the fuck sponsors whatever the fuck the HNIC pregame show is called telling us everything was right in the world because Andersen was now playing four inches closer to the crease or something. If you watched closely enough you could see Kelly Hrudey’s brain spilling out of his ear while Elliote Friedman wondered what he’d done in a previous life to be chained to this desk of jackasses and nincompoops.

Not that Andersen got any help. Jake Gardiner has always been “a guy,” and if he wasn’t covered by the biggest media group in the league every night you wouldn’t be able to tell him apart from the guy in line in front of you at 7-11. Except that guy would probably stand a better chance of remaining in front of you. Gardiner’s game last night was surrealist performance art to a level that even Dali looked upon it and remarked, “Good God what the fuck is that?” Shockingly, Roman Polak couldn’t clean up the mess either. Is now a good time to mention that Mike Babcock hasn’t won a playoff series in five years? And that one came against the Ducks in a Game 7, so does that even count? No, it doesn’t. But hey, give him miles the best roster in either league or international play and there’s at least a decent chance he won’t fuck up royally while boring the ever loving shit out of you.

But in the end, this is really what Leafs fans and media want. You can’t find a group that desires more to be both the pre-2000 Yankees and Red Sox. They demand you pay attention to them at all times, while also feeling sorry for them. They must have you recognize they are the smartest fans in the league while also acting like the dumbest and most deranged. This is a fandom that launched a nutcase filming videos in front of jars of his own piss into a cult hero. They want you to recognize their history while also bemoaning it as the reason they’ll never be happy. They have Canadiens fans’ smugness without any of the success (even if the Habs’ success is mostly bullshit as well, as a majority of their Cups came when they gamed a system in a league comprised of six teams that were 90% drunk truck drivers that simply got lost and they tossed sticks and gear at).

Leafs fans demand you witness their blood-letting, which I assume was the only purpose of Maple Leafs Square. Whereas the Jets used to have a portrait of Queen Elizabeth in their arena, the Leafs should hang one off a Vietnamese self-immolating monk. Except the only thing Leafs fans are protesting is their own stability. To hear them tell it they’re the love children of Job and Sisyphus.

They get no help from their media, a group of idiots convinced of their superiority simply because of where they live. By the time you read this, or not too long after, you can bet some columnist will have connected last night’s loss to the atrocity in the Toronto burbs on Monday. Speaking of which, someone should have told that misogynistic, twisted, deranged fucko before he got in that van that if you can’t get laid in Toronto all you have to do is film a bunch of videos in front of all your toys, or ones of you showcasing your “NHL-level” ball-hockey skills on some playground while children who just wanted to get on the swingset that you closed off cry in the background, or produce a chart that shows how in fact Frank Corrado would have won a Hart by now and the strangest women in the world will write fanfic about you. Better yet, introduce all of Incel Toronto to Freddie Andersen and tell him it’s Game 7. Everyone scores!

The question is really how they got this way, because it’s not like they do this every year. Caps fans may be intolerable vampire-goths now but at least they snuff it to the team they hate most every goddamn year. The Leafs do this like a couple times a decade. There is no long stretch of heartbreak here, but you can bet Gardiner’s abstract pigeon pose leading to the winner last night will have yearly columns written about it until we all spin off into the sun.

None of this will change, given that Leafs media and fandom alike would show up with various clubs and spikes if their beloved William Nylander was traded for any d-man that doesn’t asphyxiate himself. Actually, they’d just show up with giant print-outs of graphs and spreadsheets they made up themselves while their spouses pack up their belongings.

The knives have come out for Auston Matthews, as if he didn’t have Krejci and Bergeron and Chara up his ass all series. We can only hope that he signs exactly a four-year deal when his ELC is up and then hightails it for the border the exact minute he becomes a UFA. You know he already wants to.

Actually, no, that’s what THE NATION wants. They want to drive all their starts out of town so they have more excuses to try and pierce their own nipples with an ice pick in public. And they should never get what they want. And then they can retire #34 and put it next to #17 and #13 and #93 and have a nice grouping of players who never played in a Final while wearing blue.

Good riddance. And oh, the Raptors are going to get just far enough so that LeBron can once again waltz in to the ACC, lay it across your forehead while singing, “Ain’t That A Kick In The Head?” and walk out before you even know what happened. Go ahead and pretend to care about TFC. We know the truth.

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Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…- FFUD’s Player Review: Erik Gustafsson or The Next Norris Winner Thanks To Me

By Sam Fels 1498 0

If Erik Gustafsson becomes a solid top four defenseman for a playoff-bound Hawks next year, I expect to be put on the payroll. Because it was I who told you he sucks to high heaven when the Hawks signed him a contract extension for two years we never saw coming. And then after that he was simply everywhere, mostly good and some bad, and then he might actually be something you want to use next year.

Erik Gustafsson

35 games, 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points, 6 PIM, +1

55.0 CF%, +6.3 CF% Rel, 52.7 xGF%, +8.4 xGF% rel

I suppose the first thing to look at with Gustafsson is his end-of-the-year pairing with Connor Murphy (UNITY!). They simply put a fist in everyone’s skull for 10-20 games, which isn’t enough to conclude it’s a permanent thing but is enough to investigate next year. They had a 57.3 CF% together, and a 58.0 scoring-chance percentage. They were a little wonky defensively, as was the whole team, in that they gave up more good chances versus the amount of chances, but the puck moved the right way when they were on the ice. And they didn’t need the boost of a lot of good zone starts, as the took less than half in the offensive zone.

And really, Gustafsson’s numbers aren’t worse with Brent Seabrook, though you remember they were a complete disaster in their own end. It didn’t really matter how often they got to the offensive zone if they were guaranteed to give up a goal anytime they were pinned in their own. And it sure felt like that.

Still, after his contract signing, Gustafsson was at least a really fun, third-pairing cowboy. And you might just need a third-pairing cowboy, at least one you can try and shape into something more. The signature was springing himself on a breakaway in that game against the Jets, because only cowboys would ever attempt it. You ever remember Duncan Keith on a breakaway?

Gustafsson didn’t show power play quarterbacking skills though, which the Hawks need. Maybe it’s in there, it’s not like he got a ton of chances, but the Hawks need to find out if he can run a second unit so they don’t have Keith running either and saving his legs. Still, of all the Hawks d-men he showed at least some skill in getting a shot through, and it’s something the Hawks should work on tirelessly in training camp and even the first month or two of next season.

Outlook: It’s going to depend on what the Hawks do via trade and free agency. If you have Gustafsson on the third pairing, that’s a really good place to be. Sadly, the Hawks probably aren’t going to be able to acquire two top-four d-men to get him there, which is what it would take. Which means you might go into next season with Murphy-Gustafsson as your second-pairing and your most obvious puck-moving one. If Gustafsson takes a half-step forward, it could work. He’s got the aggressiveness, the skating ability, and the vision to do it. And Murphy can mostly cover for him in the defensive zone, especially if Crawford is back and healthy. 5-11-16 over 35 games would average out to 11 goals and 37 points over a full season. If Gustafsson can bump that to 45 points, and he could with power play points, you’d take that on your second pairing in a heartbeat.

I’ll be waiting for my check.

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Watching The Party – FFUD’s 2nd Round Preview: Sharks vs. Knights or That’s About Enough Of This

By Sam Fels 2418 0

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SCHEDULE: WE DON’T KNOW BECAUSE THE NHL IS A BUNCH OF STUPIDHEADS!

HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Sharks fustigated the Ducks in 4, and the Knights did worse to the Kings in 4

At some point, the bubble has to burst. Thanks to the Kings deciding to play their first-round series like they were relegation fodder, the Knights got to simply waltz into the second round in their first playoff asking with barely a sweat. A steam-room for half an hour would have been more taxing. The Sharks won’t be as cowardly or stupid, but then they don’t have a horseshoe and salt and a rabbit’s foot jammed in their colon like the Knight have had all season. The Sharks come with no less playoff savvy than the Kings had, they just have a much better roster. One hopes this is where the Knights dance of the seven veils finally comes to an end, because this has been a bit silly.

Goalies: Whatever we said about Sergei Bobrovsky, the opposite just might be true of Martin Jones. He threw a .970 at the Ducks in the first round, though to be fair the Ducks didn’t post much more of a threat than a veiled suggestion at him. But this follows his .935 in the first round loss last year to the Oilers, and his .923 in the Sharks’ run to the Final in ’16. Jones just might be a playoff goalie, and he’ll get more support than Jonathan Quick got.

You used to toss all sort of jokes at Marc-Andre Fleury, and then he’d let those jokes pass by his glove or through his legs into the net. Not so now. Fleury was even better than Jones in the first round with a .977, but then again he faced even less of a threat than Jones did as the Kings barely sent one forward over the red line all series while Dustin Brown looked at things with his Dustin Brown face. We can say for sure that Fleury will get tested more here, but this is the same guy who backstopped the Penguins through the first two rounds last year. Where and if the Knights break, it’s unlikely to be in net.

Defense: While it doesn’t get the pub outside of Brent Burns, this is the Sharks’ strength. It’s not as good as it could be, as for reasons he can’t even understand or explain Peter DeBoer has eschewed Joakim Ryan for the smoldering husk of Paul Martin to play with Brent Burns which is a really bad idea. The Sharks defense actually spent a lot of time on the back foot against the Ducks, though with all of the Ducks merely looking at their watch the whole series they didn’t give up a lot of good chances. You’d still take this top four, and Vlasic and Braun have a better chance at nullifying the Knights’ top line. It’s not the quickest outside of Burns, making the not-playing of Ryan even more curious, and they might have to play it cautious to keep from the Knights getting behind them a lot. Which was the Kings’ problem.

I feel like I’m done trying to explain anything that goes on with Vegas. On paper, this defense sucks. Nate Schmidt is the only one you’d want. Maybe Shea Theodore if you’ve had one too many, which is the state I assume most NHL general managers operate in. But McNabb and Engelland suck and we know this. I couldn’t pick Colin Miller or John Merrill out of a lineup. And yet because the Kings didn’t do anything other than occasionally try and spread germs to them, they were untested in the first round. You’d think they’ll get no such breaks from the far deeper Sharks, especially as Donskoi and Hertl seemed to get going in Round 1. This has to be the weak point the Sharks can exploit.

Forwards: Hanging over this series is when and if Joe Thornton will return. The real question is whether the Sharks are better without him right now. Pavelski has been a much better center than wing, and he was a pretty good wing. The Sharks play faster without Thornton, and their goal-, attempt-, and scoring chance-rates have all risen since Thornton got hurt. If the Sharks jump out to a lead in this series they can hold Thornton back even longer, though it sounds like he’s never going to be healthy. Even without him, this is a deep team. The Sharks got contributions from all four lines in their ass-stuffing of the Ducks, which has been a calling-card of the Knights. When Thornton does come back it’ll be interesting if they don’t try and simply get what they can out of him and just have him replace Eric Fehr on the fourth line. For right now, they’ve got enough.

The Knights were a little more top-heavy than the Sharks in Round 1, though given the way the Kings tried to play a Panic Room game there weren’t a lot of chances to go around. They only needed seven goals to get through. Seven goals won’t get it done here, and while the Sharks will be more open than the Kings were the Knights are going to have to get more from the likes of Eakin, Nosek, Haula, and the bottom six to get out. Because the likelihood is that Pavelski, Kane, Hertl, Donskoi are going to match whatever the Knights’ top six does.

Prediction: This one’s going to go a while, because both goalies are playing too well to see either team get out of this in four or five. Each will get at least one goalie win. And while everything seems to be breaking the Knights’ way, I trust the Sharks’ defense and bottom six more than theirs. The Sharks also probably get an emotional boost from Thornton’s return, especially as it looks like it’ll happen, in whatever form, at home in Game 3 or 4. Sharks in 6. 

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You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Columbus Blue Jackets

By Sam Fels 2053 0

Since the NHL was measured in A.L. years (After Lockout ’04-’05), there are only three teams that have never won a playoff series. One is the Toronto Maple Leafs, you may have heard about them. One is the Florida Panthers. You probably haven’t heard about them, but I assure you they exist. And the other is the Columbus Blue Jackets. That will continue for another year, as the Jackets actually found a way to make the Washington Capitals look mentally strong. Perhaps they will be given an award for this, or certainly a commemoration of some kind, because they are the first to do so.

And looking over the entire history of the Jackets, this very well might be the only accomplishment you ever remember. Their other claim to fame is that they were the throw-in for the league to placate the Red Wings and move them to the Eastern Conference, which they’d only been bitching about for a decade and a half (and perhaps knew it was the only way they could maintain their then-pointless playoff streak). Essentially, the Jackets are the first team to be the “Player To Be Named Later.”

And really, that’s it.

The Jackets have strung together two good regular seasons, though both have been of the “hockey weird” variety. Last year it was a power play and Bobrovsky combining to see them eclipse 100 points. This year it was Bobrovsky and eventually the power play, though more sustainable success at evens as well. And it got them 100 points. And what it got us was a feeling that 100 points for a team doesn’t really mean anything at all.

What must be so infuriating for the Jackets is that they actually did a lot of stuff right this year, and it still doesn’t matter. They figured out Brandon Dubinsky sucks and has for a very long time. He barely played 10 minutes per game towards the end. They concluded that maybe Nick Foligno wasn’t all that good either, despite his heart and grit captaincy, and was on the third line. They discovered that Jack Johnson has always sucked and punted him into the pressbox when he started bitching about a new contract (or debt-servicing). For John Tortorella to come to these conclusions, one would have to start believing in a higher power.

And it didn’t matter.

Certainly Artemi Panarin turned some heads in the first three games, with two goals (including a gorgeous OT winner) and seven points to go with seven shots. He then didn’t scratch again when things got tricky in the next three games, was a -6, and there went any offense Columbus might have thought about having. Hmm, strange that. Doesn’t sound familiar at all.

And this is probably as good as it gets for the Jackets. They’ll have to give Ryan Murray and Boone Jenner raises this summer, even though no one can identify what it is they do exactly. That will eat up whatever cap space they have, as well as keeping their powder dry for when Panarin gets $10 million a year after what is assuredly going to be a nuclear free agent season next year. Good thing they have $11 million combined tied up in Dubinsky and Foligno. The going rate for guys who growl a lot is astronomical, isn’t it?

You can feel Torts burnout coming next year as well, because that’s how this works. Lucky for the Jackets, and Tavares-less Islanders team, a stunting development from the Devils, the Hurricanes collapsing under the weight of their bellicose owner, and a clueless-how-to-rebuild Rangers team are probably going to Homer-sperm themselves out of taking the Jackets playoff spot.

Which will give Sergei Bobrovsky another chance to spit up all over himself when everyone’s paying attention. Once again, this two-time Vezina winner spent a lot of time looking like the morning after on Bourbon St when the Jackets needed him most. A .900 SV% to slightly better his .882 from last year. We should also remember this is the asshole that made Timothy Leif a household name, so why did we ever give him any shine in the first place? At least there will be some hilarious trade rumors after next time. He just has to go to Toronto, right?

So thanks, Jackets, for whatever it is  you do. Also Columbus is a strangely redneck stinkhole and deserves nothing good. Thanks for providing exactly none of it for them.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom, the red-headed step children

By Adam Hess 2071 0

Our next stop on the hindsight circuit brings us to Chicago’s two young Swedish defensemen, Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom. Let’s do these bad boys one at a time.

Gustav Forsling

41 Games, 3 Goals, 10 Assists, 13 Points, -2, 8 PIM

48.9 CF%, -6.8 CF% rel, 44.54 xGF%, -8.9 xGF% rel, 51.67 Zone Start Ratio

With what appeared to be a mostly patchwork blue line group heading into the 2017-18 Blackhawks season, it seemed to make sense that Gustav Forsling would get a really fair shake at proving his worth in the NHL. Some might make the case that he did get that shake, but those some would be wrong. Yes, Forsling spent a good amount of time at the NHL level last year – playing in half the games definitely strikes one as a fair shake. But the big number that sticks out there is the 51.67 Zone Start Ratio. For a player of Forsling’s skillset, that is entirely too low, even as a defenseman. Barely having more than half of his shifts start in the offensive zone screams misuse.

Add in the fact that he was saddled for much of the season with Jan Rutta, which we covered yesterday, and you have another example of the miscasting. The root of that misuse is that Joel Quenneville seems unable to see Forsling as anything other than what he isn’t, which is to say that Q sees his lack of pure defensive d-zone instincts, physicality, and overall boring defensive play and has thus far tried to coax him into developing that side of his game rather than really accentuating what he does well. Which is really strange, because it seems to me that what Forsling does well is almost exactly what the Hawks blue line really needs.

Forsling has the most beautiful skating stride on the team, sees the ice with enviable vision and anticipation, can drop a puck on his teammates tape nearly as good as anyone else on the team, and he can combine all of that moving full speed up the ice with the puck on his tape. We’ve been clamoring for Keith to have a mobile partner who might be able to cover up for his freewheeling and loss of mobility, and it seems like Forsling might be the right fit. Even if his defensive instincts are not exactly high level, he can get himself back in coverage well enough to break up or delay any rush enough to let the other four guys get back. No, it’s not the ideal scenario because it’s not Erik Karlsson or Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but he’s got the shell basics outline of the game those two play with still plenty of potential to be tapped into.

In a perfect world, Joel Quenneville realizes that he already has defensemen with skill sets more geared toward what he’s tried to get Forsling to do these past two years, and finally starts letting my special boy (yes, I am still giving him that title) off the leash a bit to play a style that fits him best. That might be with Keith, maybe with Murphy, it could even be with Seabrook if the Hawks and Seabs can get on the same page with a role like Sam outlined the other day. That’s the best and maybe only way you’re really gonna see what you have in the Fors.

But this isn’t a perfect world, so Quenneville will do the same shit for the third year and hope it works this time – something something definition of insanity – before Forsling gets sent back to A in January again. Hooray.

Carl Dahlstrom

11 Games, 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points, -2, 0 PIM

52.29 CF%, -5.29 CF% rel, 46.7 xGF%, -6.55 xGF% rel, 46 Zone Start Ratio

There isn’t too much you can glean from just 11 NHL games for a young defenseman, especially one who was in just his second year in North America. Dahlstrom has his good and bad moments, which is really shitty analysis, but again, it was just eleven games. What more do you want from me?

Digging into the pairings a bit, Dahlstrom spent more time with our ginger darling Connor Murphy than other blue-liner while he was in Chicago, with those two racking up 50:31 of ice time together at 5v5, or about three-to-five games worth of being a pairing. Dahlstrom only played about 120 5v5 minutes total away from Murphy. They posted a 52.53 CF% together, which was better than either of their marks away from each other, though Murphy had significantly more time without Dahlstrom than vice versa, and I don’t read anything into it for #5. But what it does show for Dahlstrom is that he has the goods to play at an acceptable level in the NHL if paired with a good partner.

Overall, I don’t really know what kind of future Dahlstrom has in Chicago. You have the obvious three of Keith, Nacho, and Murphy that will be hear for the long run, plus Rutta and Oesterle who if here will probably get minutes from this coach. Then you have Forsling, Jokiharju, and Ian Mitchell that the organization appear to be very high on. On top of all that, consider that you’re probably adding at least one or two high-level guys – one NHL d-man via trade or free agency, and ideally a top d-man prospect with the lottery pick – and you have a whole hell of a lot of guys in front of Dahlstrom. But besides that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

In all seriousness, the bottom pairing and depth d-man spots should be wide open for competition in camp next year, and Dahlstrom will likely be given the same shot as anyone to earn one of those spots. It’ll be up to him to do so.

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Colorado Avalanche

By Sam Fels 1764 0

It used to be tradition that playoff exits were complimented by eulogies on Puck Daddy. But with Wysh off in the Connecticut hinterlands and those who remain at Yahoo! being a bunch of Canadian giblets who take things far too seriously (and Lambert being angry and definitely not a Bruins fan), we don’t need them to do what we do best. So fuck it. We’ll eulogize all 15 teams that will eventually fall. And now, perhaps the worst team to make the playoffs in a few years. 

I don’t know whether to thank the Colorado Avalanche or hate them, as they provided us with the most St. Louis Blues moment ever. Sure, Duncan Keith helped, but the Avs got to lambaste the Blues on the final day of the season to overtake them for the last playoff spot. It’s truly wonderful, though a moment we’ve all experienced around here once or twice.

The Avs didn’t have to do a Blues impression when they got to the playoffs, though.

Much like the Devils, this was a one line team that couldn’t figure out what it was doing in goal and has a defense that has more holes in it than Bugsy Malone in his current state. So quite what they were doing here is anyone’s guess, but the Hawks, Blues and Stars were so bad someone had to take it. That’s another thing, they helped retire Ken Hitchcock. So are we supposed to be mad at them or thankful? I can’t tell.

The Avs are another example of how dumb the league as a whole can be, as they made a definite seller’s trade by moving shit-eating grin-boy Matt Duchene (somehow to a worse team) for future parts. And the more you watch Samuel Girard the more you think his only use will be more “The Fugitive” jokes. And yet even a team that ships off its #2 center or best left wing for nothing it can use now can make the playoffs in Gary Bettman’s Wacky Weird Emporium Of Stupid. Angry or thankful?

The Avs aren’t nearly as hatable now that Patrick Roy and the permanent electrical charge to his nuts are gone. Gabriel ThreeYaksAndADog has seemingly calmed down from Roy tasering him every night to turn back into the really good winger he was before that collection of gas showed up. Nathan MacKinnon was the best player in the league, though the entire Avs future hinges on him shooting nearly 20% again. Mikko Rantanen does a fine Eric Daze impression, and Avs fans can only hope his back isn’t similarly made out of legos stepped on by the dad in the house and thrown against a wall.

Still, this seems like a team that’s going to keep trying to convince itself that Erik “Golf Polo Warrior” Johnson is a top pairing d-man, and when that doesn’t work they’ll try and do the same with Tyson Barrie, who two years ago they were trying to actively drive out of town/make cry.

This is a land of Blake Comeau’s and Carl Soderberg’s, players who washed out elsewhere but find a home because there’s no one else. Remember, this is still the team that killed Jarome Iginla. They should never be loved. This is the team that saw a .909 from Rinne in the first round and didn’t come anywhere near beating the Preds, because they dressed up an unemployed circus clown in net for a couple games. The Preds wanted to lose this series, other than maybe Filip Forsberg, and the Avs kept trying to shove the invitation back into the mail slot or up their own ass. Thankfully the Jets won’t be so kind.

Goodbye Avs. It was entertaining thinking about you for like a minute. It’ll be more fun when we don’t at all next season.

Everything Else

You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The New Jersey Devils

By Sam Fels 1583 0

It used to be tradition that playoff exits were complimented by eulogies on Puck Daddy. But with Wysh off in the Connecticut hinterlands and those who remain at Yahoo! being a bunch of Canadian giblets who take things far too seriously (and Lambert being angry and definitely not a Bruins fan), we don’t need them to do what we do best. So fuck it. We’ll eulogize all 15 teams that will eventually fall. Now, the team from where if you were to give America an enema, you’d aim the hose here…

For most of this season, what you heard a lot was, “These aren’t your father’s New Jersey Devils!” I guess the contention was whenever the Devils are anything more than passable the hockey world just assumes they’re the Joy Division of hockey, a funeral dirge of a performance that somehow rose to prominence while everyone involved except for the leader would really rather be doing something more fun while their fans really try and convince you they enjoy it and aren’t totally miserable people. So I guess this version is Hockey New Order.

That assumes two things: One, my father gave a shit about the Devils which he and a lot of other fathers most certainly did not and Two, that the Devils’ brand of hockey in the past didn’t kill exponentially far more dads with its Kevorkian-like methods than those it brought joy to.

Either way, these Devils were more fun, except I couldn’t help but wonder…who gives a shit? This is still a team that plays its games in the second-worst New York-satellite area (the state of Connecticut as a whole being the worst) where no one goes to and those who do sprint the fuck back to the PATH to get the hell out of Newark ASAP when the game is over. Even Tony Soprano wanted nothing to do with the place and he was bleeding it dry. And really, how does New Jersey have a mafia? There’s nothing there to grift! On the other side, you can see how a group that doesn’t want to do any actual work would thrive in a place that doesn’t let you pump your own gas.

Anyway, as for this Devils team, they were Taylor Hall–perhaps the most or second-most entertaining player to watch in the league–a bunch of kids, and a bunch of scrap heap players whose names said aloud always cause you to go, “Oh right, him.” Kyle Palmieri has been here for years, and good, and you had no idea until I just told you that. Patrick Maroon ended up here and you probably thought he had been a Devil for a few seasons because that would make sense, or you thought he was Kyle Palmieri.

Go ahead, name a Devils defensemen. I’ll wait. You can’t do it, can you? And no, Bryce Salvador is on the broadcast team now. And if you came up with Bryce Salvador, I strongly suggest your life needs changes. John Moore is here, and all 12 Devils fans hate him. That’s about all I can tell you about the Devils blue line, and quite frankly I’m not interested in finding out more and it’s my fucking job!

Pavel Zacha is definitely a player they’ve been talking about for a few years, and I guess it’s because he helps carry the torch for the Devils of having the most players with a surname that begins with Z, joining Zajac on this roster now that Dainius Zubrus has gone to wherever people named “Dainius” go. I assume it’s an Eastern European sex club, but I’m not going to investigate as I fear the answers.

Anyway, the Devils made the playoffs with one plus forward and two goalies who were nothing but mediocre. Which I guess you have to hand it to them, as they made an excellent choice in picking a dogshit division while also getting to take advantage of the fact the other division in the conference was somehow way worse, opening the wild card spots. Of course, that always meant they were going to get steamrolled in the first round, and boy did they.

The Devils have been an excellent straight man for the Oilers, given Hall’s MVP-like performance this year. Maybe that’s something they can claim to gain attention. “New Jersey: It’s Salvation From Edmonton.” You can see it on the road signs, can’t you?

This wasn’t in the plan for the Devils anyway, as this was supposed to be a rebuilding season but the NHL as a whole was like, “We’ll show you! We’ll be so bad you have to make the playoffs!” So the Devils will have an excellent chance of being a “disappointment” next year as their development continues, except not enough people would notice for that to be the case. It’s hard to be more irrelevant than the Islanders, so kudos to the Devils for managing it.